Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 10/7/2019 and a trading recommendation

On the whole, the market rather calmly reacted to the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, although its content did not at all coincide with the forecasts. Everyone was screaming more about the fact that the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level, almost in fifty years, from 3.7% to 3.5%, while they expected it to remain unchanged. And in theory, this should have led to a serious strengthening of the dollar, but in fact, we observed only a temporary, and insignificant, downward movement of the single European currency. The result, all the same, was a purely symbolic strengthening of the single European currency. Many were alarmed by the fact that the growth rate of average hourly wages slowed from 3.2% to 2.9%. So unemployment has become lower, but wages are also likely to decline, and as a result, total income remains the same. In addition, 136 thousand new jobs were created outside agriculture, and not 145 thousand as predicted. But this negative factor was compensated by the revision of previous results from 130 thousand to 168 thousand. It turns out that without counting 9 thousand new jobs in September, they found another 38 thousand in August. In other words, the content of the report was rather neutral, and since there was not much positive, there was no reason for the dollar to grow.

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Since the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor did not bring any clarity, investors need pretty serious data to decide on the mood. Unfortunately, today we will not see them, since the macroeconomic calendar is essentially empty. Only data on consumer lending in the United States will be published, the volume of which is expected to grow by $18.2 billion, against $23.3 billion in the previous period. However, these data themselves are rarely of interest to anyone, especially since they are published quite late, when not only Asia but also Europe is already closed.

Consumer lending (US):

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The EUR/USD pair failed to surprise traders on Friday, although hopes were great. The quotation practically did not show the proper fluctuation, and to be more precise, we have a horizontal move within 1.0960/1.0990. Considering what is happening in general terms, we see a distinct corrective course, from the point of variable support of 1.0880, towards the psychological mark of 1.1000, where stagnation has already formed near the level.

It is likely to assume that the lateral oscillation of 1.0960/1.0990 (1.1000) will still remain for some time, where trading inside the boundaries does not make much sense, for a set of small amplitude, but the method of trading on the breakdown can bring much more opportunities.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

  • Long positions, we are already considering consolidating prices above 1.1000.
  • Short positions, we consider in case of price consolidation lower than 1.0960, (not a puncture shadow).

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that, amid a corrective move, the indicators' signs to a greater extent took an upward position. It is worth considering such a moment that due to the fact that there is an amplitude fluctuation, the indicators on the minute and hour periods can be volatile.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 7, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

On Friday, the pair went down significantly on the news, testing the pullback level of 61.8% - 1.2285 (blue dashed line), but eventually returned to its original position. On Monday, strong calendar news is expected at 18.00 London time (dollar). Also today, a downward movement is possible.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price from the pullback level 38.2% - 1.2334 (blue dashed line) will move down, with the target 1.2285 - the pullback level 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may begin to roll back down.

The first lower target of 1.2285 is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

The main target for today is 1.2254 which is the pullback level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement to the upper fractal - 1.2357.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 7. The pound needs benchmarks for Brexit to further grow. Breakthrough

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound buyers so far show activity only after the decline in GBP/USD. However, to resume the upward trend, a breakthrough of resistance at 1.2346 is required, since only such a scenario will open the way to the area of last week's high at 1.2406, and then lead to the renewal of resistance of 1.2440 and 1.2479, where I recommend taking profit. If the bears continue to take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding the situation around Brexit, and so far the EU has not given a clear answer to the plan proposed by the British prime minister last week, it is best to return to long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2291-1.2280 , or buy immediately on the rebound from the lows of 1.2241 and 1.2207.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers are in a very dangerous situation, as last week a smooth reversal of the pair was formed from a low of October 1, which could lead to larger growth in the short term. Bears need to keep GBP/USD below the resistance of 1.2346, and the formation of a false breakdown there will increase pressure on the pound and lead to a retest of the low of last Friday at 1.2275, where I recommend taking profits. Only a breakthrough of this range will indicate the resumption of the bear market in order to test the support areas 1.2240 and 1.2200. In an upward trend scenario, it is best to consider short positions for a rebound from a high of 1.2406.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market and uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2290, while the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2350 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 7, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the bulls will try to break through the upper fractal 1.1000 (yellow dashed line) once again and, if successful, the next target 1.1033 is the resistance line (blue bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the continuation of the upward movement is possible.

The upper intermediate target 1.1000 is the upper fractal (yellow dashed line).

The final target is 1.1033 - the resistance line (blue bold line).

An unlikely scenario is the lower work with the target of 1.0955 - a pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

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Technical analysis of ETh/USD for 07/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The United States Financial Services Committee has invited Facebook COO, Sheryl Sandberg, to respond to the company's plans for stablecoin Libra. According to the media report, one key condition has an invitation: the consent of CEO Mark Zuckerberg to appear before the committee before January 2020.

The committee, chaired by Representative Maxine Waters, recently announced its plans to prioritize the examination of Facebook's proposal for Libra and its Calibra digital portfolio as part of the autumn 2019 program.

According to press sources, Sandberg will be asked about Libra as well as Facebook's advertising policies. The social media titan reached a $ 5 million settlement in March with civil rights groups because of allegations that its advertising had facilitated discriminatory practices in the housing market.

If the testimony came to pass, Sandberg would be Facebook's second director to testify before the Libra Committee. In mid-July, Calibra CEO David Marcus testified in matters such as anti-money laundering and other compliance measures, as well as public and government confidence in the company's oversight and data collection measures.

As reported by the media dealing with cryptographic issues, Rep. Maxine Waters has proved to be one of the more skeptical legislators in the US in Libra, expressing her concern that the technology giant "has shown that it does not keep consumer data confidential on a similar scale to Equifax" and "allowed malicious Russian state entities to buy and target "to" allegedly influence the presidential election in the US in 2016. In mid-June, she asked Facebook to stop working on Libra, citing "the company's troubled past."

This week, leaks from two internal Q&A sessions between Zuckerberg and Facebook staff in July 2019 revealed an early CEO strategy to launch Libra. During the session, the CEO confirmed that the project encountered "real problems. Finance is a very tightly regulated space [...] preventing money laundering, terrorist financing and people with whom you cannot do business according to various governments. "

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has managed to retrace almost 50% of the previous wave down and made a local top at the level of $185.05, less than two dollars away from the retracement. After this wave up, the market made another local wave down that is clearly corrective in the structure. The recent low was made at the level of $166.08, just above the local technical support located at the level of $163.98 - $162.50. Any violation of this support will open the road towards the key technical support located at the level of $151.30.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $200.05

WR2 - $192.33

WR1 - $180.15

Weekly Pivot - $172.02

WS1 - $159.46

WS2 - $151.65

WS3 - $138.64

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for October 7. Third Fed rate cut = end of downward trend?

EUR / USD

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Friday, October 4, ended for the EUR / USD pair with an increase of 15 basis points. Although, frankly, the markets were set for more serious movements, given the strength of the news background that day. However, most of the economic reports left conflicting feelings. Nonfarm Payrolls showed the creation of new 136,000 jobs, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in September, and the average hourly wage did not increase compared to the previous month. Market expectations were somewhere better, and somewhere worse. In general, the euro-dollar pair continued to move away from previously reached lows and build the proposed first wave as part of a new upward trend section.

Fundamental component:

The last day ended with a speech by Jerome Powell, which can be characterized exactly as well as previous economic reports. Powell did not report anything new and interesting to the markets. Therefore, the question of the Fed's intentions to change monetary policy at the next meeting remains open. Today, October 7, the entire news background of the EUR / USD pair will be reduced again to a speech by Jerome Powell. The markets are now worried by the following point: if the Fed goes for the third time in a row to lower the key rate, then the buyers of the US dollar will noticeably decrease. Thus, in this case, the downward part of the trend can actually end near the lows of October 1. I also note that the instrument made two unsuccessful attempts to close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which indirectly indicates a possible departure of quotes from the highs reached. However, the current type of wave marking is more inclined to build at least a three-wave uplift structure.

Purchase goals:

1.1109 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0876 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.0814 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair has allegedly completed the construction of a downward set of waves. At the same time, until a successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 61.8%, certain chances remain to complicate wave 5 of the downward trend section with targets located around 1.0876 and 1.0814. Therefore, with instrument purchases, I recommend being careful now.

GBP / USD

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The pair GBP / USD on October 4 added just a few base points. Thus, such a weak change in course leaves the current wave marking unchanged. As before, I assume the completion of the construction of wave b as part of a descending set of waves, originating on September 20. If this is true, then the decline of the instrument will continue from its current position with targets under 22 pieces. Moreover, news background from the UK still does not support the British pound. The confusion with Brexit remains. Information on this topic is constantly conflicting. In addition, economic reports from the UK leave much to be desired and also do not cause markets to want to buy the pound.

Fundamental component:

There were no economic reports in the UK on Friday. On Monday, the markets will remain on a "dry ration" again, only an evening performance by Jerome Powell will be able to wake the market. This week, the markets will closely monitor any information from the British Parliament again. According to the latest data, Boris Johnson made a new proposal to the EU under the terms of the Brexit agreement. There is little hope that this proposal will convince the European Parliament to sign an agreement. However, the British pound and the UK are now counting on any chance. By the way, the European Union has already expressed skepticism regarding Boris Johnson's previous proposal, as his plan does not solve, in the EU's opinion, the main problems in connection with which the deal has not yet been signed.

Sales goals:

1.2229 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2147 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2582 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly continues to build a new bearish trend section. Thus, now, I expect the completion of the construction of the correctional wave b and the resumption of the decline of the instrument in the direction of the levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci as part of the construction of wave 3 or c. The MACD signal "down" may indicate a transition to the construction of a new bearish wave.

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EUR/USD. Preview of the week: China, US inflation and Jerome Powell's speech

The euro-dollar pair is trading without much enthusiasm at the beginning of the new trading week: the price fluctuated in a 20-pound range during the Asian session on Monday. Nevertheless, a fairly strong volatility is expected for the pair in the coming days. And if Nonfarm was the number one event last week, then there are much more informational reasons this week. That is why market participants are in no hurry with trading decisions - the fundamental picture may significantly change very soon, both for the dollar and the euro. Although the main "tests" have to go through the US currency.

At the forefront of events is trade negotiations between the United States and China. Perhaps this is the main event of October for the financial world, because markets hope to resolve the protracted conflict amid a slowdown in the global economy. Until recently (literally until last Friday), all the prerequisites for concluding a historic deal were - in late August, Donald Trump showed a "goodwill gesture" by delaying the introduction of additional tariffs on the import of Chinese goods until December 15 (instead of September 1), stating that Beijing has "serious intentions" that could lead to a deal. China, in turn, increased the volume of purchases of American agricultural products. Such mutual steps were conducive to constructive negotiations, so traders quite reasonably hoped for an end to the trade war.

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But judging by recent events, this optimism was premature. In anticipation of key negotiations (to be held on October 10-12), the Chinese made a rather sharp maneuver, stating that the agenda of the meeting would be substantially changed. The market reacted minimally to this information, as it is unofficial in nature. The fact that China will narrow the agenda of trade negotiations, the news agency Bloomberg reported, citing its own sources. That is, on the one hand, these are just rumors, but on the other hand, there is definitely a certain logic in such behavior. Trump is still at the center of an ongoing political scandal. House committees continue to investigate impeachment by interviewing witnesses and examining relevant documents. According to many analysts, congressmen eventually still charged the US president with abuse of power by transferring an indictment to the Senate. Although the Upper House of Congress is controlled by Republicans, Trump's fate will depend on the gravity and soundness of the allegations.

In any case, the position of the US leader is now weakened, and, apparently, the Chinese decided to take advantage of the situation by excluding one of the main requirements of the White House from the agenda of the negotiations. During the next round of trade negotiations, they will not even discuss issues of reforming industrial policies and industrial subsidies. Earlier, Washington insisted on carrying out these reforms: even in the event of a deal, the United States wanted to retain the right to introduce new trade restrictions if China prolonged them.

But now Beijing is well aware that Trump needs a victory (at least of a nominal nature) in the trade war, and therefore has tightened his position in trade negotiations. Given the political situation of Trump, it is very interesting how he will react to such a Chinese maneuver. If the negotiations fail, anti-risk sentiment will increase substantially, and the dollar may be under strong pressure. Indeed, in this case, the Federal Reserve can continue to soften monetary policy, especially against the background of a weakening labor market and lower inflation rates.

By the way, US inflation this week will also be in the spotlight for EUR/USD traders. The consumer price index for September will be published on Thursday, October 10. According to preliminary forecasts, in general, inflation will remain at the August level - overall inflation should slightly increase (in annual terms) - to 1.8%, and on a monthly basis remain at the same level (0.1%). Core inflation should completely repeat the trajectory of the month before last: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y. For dollar bulls, it is important that these indicators come out at least at the forecast level: if the release is in the red zone, the greenback will again be under pressure, especially amid conflicting data on the labor market.

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It is also worth noting that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak three times this week, and on Wednesday the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve will be published. Let me remind you that members of the regulator did not demonstrate a monolithic position regarding the September rate cut and, in general, regarding the future prospects of monetary policy. The minutes of this meeting will help to understand what moods dominate in the Fed camp - "dovish" or "hawkish". And although many members of the Federal Reserve have already expressed their positions after this meeting, unexpected language may have an impact on the dollar. In turn, Jerome Powell, who will be speaking at various events for three days (at the premiere of the Marriner Eccles movie, at the Denver business forum and at the Fed hearings) can provide more relevant information on monetary policy prospects.

As for the European currency, it's just the report of the last meeting of the ECB. True, this report is published 4 weeks after the meeting itself, so the relevance of this document is dubious: after September 12, many (most) officials of the European Central Bank have already commented on the current situation.

Thus, this week the focus of the traders of the EUR/USD pair will be China, which decided to change the role of "slave" to the role of "leader". The results of the trade talks may overshadow all other fundamental factors, although the release of data on the growth of US inflation and the rhetoric of the head chief should also not be discounted. In general, the second week of October may be decisive for the US currency, especially if the upcoming US-Chinese talks will repeat the fate of the previous ones.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 07/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Apple is not going to follow Facebook in creating its own digital currency, said company president Tim Cook in an interview with the press. He negatively expressed the idea that Apple could issue its own currency tokens.

"I really think that the currency should remain in the hands of the state. I do not like the idea that a private entity can create a modern currency," - he said.

His comments have a distinctly different tone than Facebook, which is developing its digital currency Libra, as well as competitors.

In the area of payments, Apple aims to participate in the market with players such as Visa, Mastercard and PayPal via Apple Pay. All three companies have signed up to participate in Libra, despite information disclosed this week that they may all be considering a 180-degree return on this issue.

Those who support decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin criticize the way countries and central banks corrupt the money supply and support of fiat currency. For Cook, however, they are the right guardians of economic tools.

"Currency, like defense, should remain in the hands of states - it is at the heart of their mission. We select our representatives to assume the responsibilities of the government. Companies are not elected - they should not enter this space," said Cook.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair is again close to the key technical support located at the level of $7,676. The last bounce was rather shallow, with a top located at the level of $8,474, so the bulls did not manage to get to the higher technical resistance located at $9,048. The bottom of the wave (A) at the level of $7,676 is then in the center of attention of bears after the weekend and if violated, then the next technical support is located at $7,405. The increasing downside momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,064

WR2 - $8,729

WR1 - $8,221

Weekly Pivot - $7,955

WS1 - $7,433

WS2 - $7,138

WS3 - $6,572

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 7. Strong US labor market data did not help the dollar. Bulls aim for resistance

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Data on a decrease in the US unemployment rate to 3.5% did not lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, which keeps the hope of euro buyers to continue the upward correction in the short term. The bulls will continue to seek to break above the resistance level of 1.0993, which will provide them with growth to the highs in the area of 1.1022 and 1.1067, where I recommend taking profits. However, protecting support at 1.0965 will be the most important task for the first half of the day, which we managed to do last Friday. The formation of a false breakdown on it is a direct signal to euro purchases. If the bulls miss this range, you can return to long positions immediately to rebound from a low of 1.0935.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

As last Friday, all that is required today by euro sellers in the morning is the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0993. However, a more important task will be a breakthrough and consolidation below support at 1.0965. Only this will allow EUR/USD to push to the lows in the area of 1.0935 and 1.0905, where I recommend taking profits. For the first half of the day the release of important statistics on the economy of the eurozone is not planned. Therefore, in the scenario of the euro growth above resistance at 1.0993, further along the trend, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.1022.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likely continuation of the upward correction.

Bollinger bands

In the event of EUR/USD decline in the morning, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0955. Growth will be limited by the upper limit in the area of 1.0995.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 07/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is still bouncing from the ascending trendline dynamic support on the H4 timeframe chart, but so far the bulls are not using this technical support opportunity fully. The market has made a local top at the level of 1.2411, but the Shooting Star was made as well at this level and traders should have this in mind, because of only a clear breakout above the level of 1.2411 will open the road towards the next technical resistance located at the level of 1.2504. On the other hand, the market is coming off the overbought levels and the momentum is still neutral which might indicate that bears are ready to make another leg down. It is worth to keep an eye on the current market situation.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2623

WR2 - 1.2518

WR1 - 1.2423

Weekly Pivot - 1.2315

WS1 - 1.2215

WS2 - 1.2101

WS3 - 1.2006

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key short-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2381. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 07/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues the upward move towards the next technical resistance located at the level of 1.1024. The last local high was made at the level o 1.0999 in overbought market conditions, so the price might now trade in a narrow range for a little while, but the bulls might decide to push it higher anyway. The momentum is still strong and positive, which supports the short-term bullish outlook and the technical support located at the level of 1.0966 should hold the bears. Please remember, that the higher timeframe trend is still bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1156

WR2 - 1.1079

WR1 - 1.1037

Weekly Pivot - 1.0957

WS1 - 1.0918

WS2 - 1.0839

WS3 - 1.0797

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 7 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is expected to reach our target at 130.78 before turning higher but we are starting to see a real loss of downside momentum. The low ,for now, has been 131.20 and a final dip closer to our ideal target remains a possibility as long as minor resistance at 132.05 is able to cap the upside.

A break above resistance at 132.05 will be the first warning that a bottom already could be in place and red wave iii higher to 139.15 is developing. A break above 132.55 will confirm that the low and the new impulsive rally are unfolding.

R3: 133.36

R2: 132.85

R1: 132.55

Pivot: 132.05

S1: 131.47

S2: 131.20

S3: 130.78

Trading recommendation:

We bought GBP at 131.25 and we have placed our stop at 130.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 7 - 2019

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We are looking for bottom in the 117.14 - 117.28 area. This area has now been tested and we should soon see the first signs of a bottom being in place. A break above minor resistance at 117.63 and more importantly a break above resistance at 118.47 will confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii is developing towards at least 121.93 and likely higher.

R3: 118.47

R2: 118.01

R1: 117.67

Pivot: 117.43

S1: 117.05

S2: 116.88

S3: 116.65

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.20 with our stop placed at 116.20. A more conservative approach will be to buy EUR upon a break above 117.63

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for October 07, 2019

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD is seen to be consolidating in a narrow range since last Friday. The range could be defined between 1.0950 and 1.1000 within a triangle structure. A break above the 1.1000 mark should see hitting next in line resistance at 1.1025 and above. Alternately, any drop below 1.0950 is expected to be corrective and prices should remain above 1.0879 levels. The EUR/USD pair needs to break higher through 1.1110 levels which is major resistance to confirm that a meaningful low is in place at 1.0879 levels and prices are ready to push through towards 1.1800 - 1.2000 levels in the weeks to follow. Trading point of view, it should be a safe strategy to maintain long positions and also look to buy on dips. Please note that 1.1110 levels should be within reach until prices stay above 1.0879 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, target 1.1110.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 07, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence, German Factory Orders m/m, and Sentix Investor Confidence. The US will also publish the economic data such as Consumer Credit m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1037. Strong Resistance: 1.1031. Original Resistance: 1.1020. Inner Sell Area: 1.1099. Target Inner Area: 1.0984. Inner Buy Area: 1.0959. Original Support: 1.0948. Strong Support: 1.0937. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0931. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 07, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and the US will publish some economic data such as Consumer Credit m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 107.32. Resistance. 2: 107.11. Resistance. 1: 106.90. Support. 1: 106.64. Support. 2: 106.43. Support. 3: 106.22. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 7, 2019

EUR/USD

Friday's US employment data came out good. Before the news was released, dubious moods were pumping up in the business media: the labor market is weak, forecasts are overly optimistic - and this pressure played a role - the dollar slightly weakened, as investors were already tuned in to the worst data. The euro grew by 14 points, but the stock market showed corresponding optimistic growth - the S&P 500 + 1.42%. Even the British FTSE100 added 1.10%. The "smart" money market also turned out to be more cautious - it no longer expects a December rate cut, the probability of a reduction in October fell from 86.5% to 78.0% in one day.

136 thousand jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector, near the forecast of 140 thousand, the indicator for August was revised to increase to 168 thousand (it was 130 thousand), the unemployment rate dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, reaching the level of December 1969 .

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Technically, however, there are more clear signs of a weakening single currency. On the daily chart, the price was unable to gain a foothold over the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. Double convergence remains a threat, but the option of turning the indicator down, in which the double convergence is converted to single convergence with the completion of its development on September 3-13, is gaining bonification. We do not exclude a certain "rethinking" by the market of published indicators on employment.

The trade negotiations between the US and China are on the agenda. An agreement is expected to be reached this week. Against this background, a new look at old economic data, including weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, will be different.

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On a four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator is turning down. To change the trend for a falling price, you need to go below the MACD line (1.0955). A more thoroughly decreasing trend will take shape when the price goes below the signal level of 1.0926. This is our main expected scenario. Price growth to the MACD line on a daily scale, in the region of 1.1060, is possible after the price has consolidated above the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0985).

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 7, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound slightly grew at the end of Friday, having worked out the range between the line of balance and the Fibonacci level of 200.0% on the daily chart. The technical situation has not changed during this time - the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator indicates a weakening upward trend in the last five sessions.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator goes down.

The primary signal for the pound's fall will be when the price leaves the Friday low, this is necessary so that the signal line of the oscillator moves to the negative zone. The immediate goal of 1.2230 as a Fibonacci level of 223.6% can be intermediate, the main goal is the area of the Fibonacci level of 238.2% and the price channel line near 1.2140.

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Consolidating the price above the signal level of 1.2375 reveals an alternative scenario with growth to the resistance of the price channel in the area of 1.2486.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 7, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slightly grew more than the European currencies by 30 points last Friday. But today in the Asian session, it played back more than half of the growth. On the daily chart, the candle opened on the balance line, which is a sign of a further decrease, but the gap has not been closed since the opening of the day, which may delay the upcoming reversal. The growth limit is still the double resistance of the price channel line and the MACD line at the price of 0.6795. A reversal of the Marlin line from the boundary with the territory of a growing trend indicates a low probability of working out this resistance.

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On the four-hour chart, the MACD line is located in front of the price, overcoming which will be a signal for the development of a further decrease to the nearest target at 0.6650 - to support the price channel on the daily chart.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for October 7

Forecast for October 7:

Analytical review of currency pairs in scale H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1074, 1.1044, 1.1030, 1.1007, 1.0991, 1.0966, 1.0945 and 1.0918. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of October 1. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.0991 - 1.1007. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1030. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1030 - 1.1044. We consider the level 1.1074 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 1.0966 - 1.0945. Hence, the high probability of a reversal to the top. A breakdown of the level of 1.0945 will lead to the development of a protracted corrective movement. Here, the target is 1.0918.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1007 Take profit: 1.1030

Buy 1.1045 Take profit: 1.1074

Sell: 1.0966 Take profit: 1.0947

Sell: 1.0943 Take profit: 1.0920

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2573, 1.2493, 1.2422, 1.2374, 1.2311, 1.2279, 1.2243 and 1.2203. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of October 1 and is currently in the correction zone for this structure. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2374. In this case, the target is 1.2422. The breakdown of which should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.2493. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2573. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2311 - 1.2279. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2243. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of a medium-term upward structure from October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2375 Take profit: 1.2420

Buy: 1.2424 Take profit: 1.2490

Sell: 1.2310 Take profit: 1.2280

Sell: 1.2277 Take profit: 1.2245

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0027, 0.9999, 0.9974, 0.9957, 0.9921, 0.9892, 0.9872 and 0.9845. Here, we are following the formation of the downward potential of October 3. The continuation of the development of the downward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9921. In this case, the target is 0.9892. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9892 - 0.9872 . For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9845. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9957 - 0.9974. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9999. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the development of the upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.0027.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of October 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9976 Take profit: 0.9999

Buy : 1.0003 Take profit: 1.0027

Sell: 0.9920 Take profit: 0.9892

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9845

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.28, 107.01, 106.84, 106.48, 106.27 and 105.89. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle of October 1. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 106.48 - 106.27. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 105.89. After reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 106.84 - 107.01. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.28. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of October 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.84 Take profit: 107.00

Buy : 107.03 Take profit: 107.26

Sell: 106.48 Take profit: 106.28

Sell: 106.25 Take profit: 105.90

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3369, 1.3350, 1.3336, 1.3304, 1.3287 and 1.3254. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the top of October 2. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 1.3336 - 1.3350. From here, we expect a key reversal in the correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3369.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3304 - 1.3287. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3254. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions of October 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3336 Take profit: 1.3350

Buy : 1.3352 Take profit: 1.3369

Sell: 1.3304 Take profit: 1.3390

Sell: 1.3285 Take profit: 1.3260

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6868, 0.6838, 0.6815, 0.6782, 0.6772, 0.6746, 0.6730 and 0.6710. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of October 2. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6772 - 0.6782. In this case, the target is 0.6815. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6815 - 0.6838. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6868. The movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6840.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6746 - 0.6730. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6710. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6782 Take profit: 0.6815

Buy: 0.6817 Take profit: 0.6836

Sell : 0.6746 Take profit : 0.6732

Sell: 0.6729 Take profit: 0.6710

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 117.80, 117.53, 117.38, 117.04, 116.90, 116.69 and 116.35. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward cycle of September 27. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 117.04 - 116.90. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the level of 116.96. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 116.35. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 116.65.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range 117.38 - 117.53. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 117.80. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of September 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 117.38 Take profit: 117.52

Buy: 117.55 Take profit: 117.80

Sell: 117.04 Take profit: 116.90

Sell: 116.88 Take profit: 116.70

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 134.58, 133.36, 132.72, 131.45, 130.78 and 129.88. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of September 20. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range 131.45 - 130.78. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to a potential target - 129.88, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 132.72 - 133.36. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 134.58. We also expect the formation of expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle to this level.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.72 Take profit: 133.30

Buy: 133.40 Take profit: 134.55

Sell: 131.43 Take profit: 130.80

Sell: 130.74 Take profit: 129.90

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Control zones GBP/USD 10/07/19

The pair is trading between two significant zones. The resistance was Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2388-1.2372, and the weekly CZ 1.2246-1.2213 became the support. To continue medium-term growth, closing of trading above the level of 1.2388 on Monday will be required. This will pave the way for the September maximum. This model has a 50% chance of working out.

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The continuation of the medium-term growth may become the main model for the coming week, as many pairs associated with the dollar formed a reversal pattern in the direction of strengthening.

An alternative model will be developed if the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 test leads to an increase in supply and a halt to growth. This will indicate the formation of a local accumulation zone, where the main goals will be the extremes of last week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zonethat reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones EURUSD 10/07/19

A reversal of the upward pattern formed last Friday. This makes it possible for you to consider the purchase on Monday. The purpose of growth is the weekly control zone 1.1055-1.1039. On Friday, WCZ 1/4 1.0959-1.0955 was tested, which led to a retention of prices above the opening. This could be enough to continue growth.

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Since the closing of the week occurred within the middle course, there are no obstacles to growth. The further pattern will depend on how the Asian Monday session closes.

An alternative model of a deeper correction will become relevant in case the closing of Monday's trade occurs below the level of 1.0955. This will allow you to buy the pair at better prices at WCZ 1/2 1.0919-1.0911. The target of growth will be the weekly control zone 1.1055-1.1039.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones NZDUSD 10/07/19

The pair reached the weekly CZ 0.6333-0.6321 and the range of the average course at the end of last week. This made it possible to stop growth. Continued growth may be the basis for building a plan at the beginning of this week. The downward movement should be considered as corrective to one of the significant support areas.

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Work in the upward movement may become the main one for the first half of the month if the closure of the nearest trading session occurs above the weekly control zone.

To implement the alternative model, the absorption of the Friday movement and the closure of the US session below the WCZ 1/2 0.6275-0.6269 will be required. In this case, the upward model will be completed, and sales will again come to the fore.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 10/07/19

Friday's closing of trade occurred above WCZ 1/2 0.6747-0.6740. This indicates that the priority changed. Purchasing comes to the fore. The growth target is the weekly control zone 0.6820-0.6807. Any reduction must be used to find favorable prices for the purchase.

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The closing of last week's trade occurred within the middle course. This suggests that the probability of a return is within the standard limit and that any support area should be used to enter the purchase.

An alternative option of a deeper correction will become relevant if the WCZ 1/4 is broken and the closing of the trade occurs below. This will allow you to get the most favorable purchase prices with the test WCZ 1/2 0.6716-0.6710. The growth targets will be the same as with a minimal correction on a weekly control zone. Working time from two to five days.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/USD: weak Nonfarm, diplomatic Powell and phlegmatic dollar

US labor market data have been very controversial. On the one hand, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to record-low levels, while the increase in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector came out in the "red zone", not reaching the forecast values. After hesitating, the market nevertheless decided that "the glass is half full," and not vice versa, after which the dollar began to be in high demand. However, according to the results of the Nonfarm release, there are no winners or losers: the bears could not pull the pair into the region of the eighth figure, while the bulls could only approach the resistance level of 1.1000 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, coinciding with the Kijun- sen indicator Ichimoku). By and large, the EUR/USD pair remained in the same positions as before the release. The published data could not fundamentally reverse the fundamental picture for the pair, although in my opinion, they are clearly not in favor of the US currency.

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Almost all components came out worse than expected, reflecting a slowdown in the labor market. Only the unemployment rate surprised with an unexpected decline to the level of 3.5%. This is a record of several decades - the last time the indicator was at this level in the distant 1969. However, this fact actually serves as little comfort for dollar bulls. The unemployment rate is not responding so quickly to the current situation - this indicator refers to lagging economic indicators. Therefore, a certain optimism of dollar bulls is premature, since more operational indicators indicate quite alarming trends.

Why did EUR/USD traders actually ignore the frankly weak Nonfarm? In my opinion, there are several reasons for this. Firstly, market participants were ready to reduce the labor market, after the publication of a weak report from the analytical agency ADP. According to them, the number of jobs in private US companies grew by only 135 thousand in September - this is the worst result since May of this year. This report was a kind of harbinger of weak Nonfarm. For example, a month ago, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased 145 thousand (before the revision), while the ADP report showed an increase in the number of employees in 157 thousand.

A high level of correlation of these indicators warned market participants that official numbers in September may be below forecast values. And so it happened: instead of an increase of 145 thousand (consensus forecast), the indicator grew by 136 thousand. The number of people employed in the private sector of the economy grew by only 114 thousand, while the forecast was at the level of 130 thousand. But the number of jobs in the manufacturing industry has declined altogether (by two thousand) - for the first time since April this year. It is worth recalling that the ISM production index has been consistently decreasing for the past 6 (!) Months, collapsing in September to the level of 47.8 points (10-year low). The share of economically active population also slightly fell - to 63.2%. In this case, the decline is minimal, but still played a role, given the dynamics of other indicators.

Nonfarm's inflationary component — the level of average hourly wages — was especially disappointing. This most important indicator for the Federal Reserve turned out to be zero on a monthly basis (the worst result since November 2017) and 2.9% on an annual basis (worst result since September 2018). Such dynamics are also correlated with the uncertain growth of key inflation indicators.

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It is worth noting here that the labor market has long been a reliable tool for the dollar. Amid fluctuations in other key indicators, Nonfarm always supported dollar bulls - after the spring recession, the US labor market recovered and kept the mark for several months. But the numbers published yesterday amid a consistent decline in the ISM manufacturing index significantly spoiled the overall fundamental picture for the US currency. But the market ignored this fact, justifying the decline with temporary factors.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also "played up" to the dollar bulls. Speaking at a hearing in Washington last night, he voiced the most diplomatic position, maintaining his own rhetoric balance. On the one hand, he said that the US economy is in "good shape", the unemployment rate has reached a 50-year low, and inflation is striving to achieve its target. On the other hand, Powell recalled the "multiple risks" facing the US economy. First of all, we are talking about a slowdown in the global economy amid ongoing trade conflicts on a global scale. Having thus played the role of a "good and evil policeman" in one person, the head of the Fed, in fact, did not say anything definite - the dollar pairs after his speech remained at their previous price positions.

Thus, the market turned over the page of last week, ignoring the alarming, in my opinion, signals. Jerome Powell, in turn, did not escalate the situation, thereby confirming the "correctness" of the market reaction. Therefore, now all the attention of the foreign exchange market will be focused on trade negotiations between the US and China, which should start on October 10-12. Their results will determine the further vector of the movement of the US currency. In the meantime, EUR/USD traders are again forced to hang out in the flat: bears will pull the pair to the lower boundary of the price range (1.0890 is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), while buyers will rush to the "ceiling" of this band, then there is to the mark of 1.1080 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe coinciding with the upper line). But it will be possible to break out of this range only following the results of the fateful trade negotiations.

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USDCAD challenges important resistance

USDCAD has reached the important resistance are of 1.3360 last week and price got rejected. This resistance area is important if USDCAD bulls want to continue to push price higher towards 1.35.

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Blue lines - long-term bullish channel

Blue rectangle - major resistance area

USDCAD is making higher highs and higher lows on a daily basis. Price is challenging the blue resistance area and if it breaks above it, we should expect USDCAD first to reach 1.3490. Support is at 1.32 and as long as price is above this level, bulls remain in control of the trend. Breaking below this level will put the longer-term up trend in danger.

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Daily Analysis on USDJPY using Ichimoku clouds

USDJPY ended last week on a negative note but price stopped the decline right on top of the Daily Ichimoku cloud. USDJPY has strong support at 108.85 not only from the Ichimoku perspective but also from the Fibonacci point of view.

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USDJPY has so far reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the upper cloud boundary. Support is important at current levels. A bounce is justified if not a full scale upward trend reversal. Resistance is at 107.10 and 107.50. Breaking above this zone will open the way for a move above 108. Inability to break 107.50 will most probably lead to a decline below 106.85 towards 106 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly EURUSD analysis

EURUSD remains in a weekly bearish trend. Price bounced 100 pips from the 2019 lows at 1.0879 but bears remain in full control of the trend. Price remains inside the long-term wedge pattern and is heading towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 1.0340-1.2555 rise.

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Black lines - resistance trend lines

Green line - major support trend line

EURUSD touched again the green trend line support and bounced. Price has broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and this is now resistance. Short-term resistance is found at the first black trend line at 1.1030. A weekly close above it will open the way towards the second black trend line resistance at 1.1190 where we also find the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

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In Ichimoku cloud terms as long as price is below 1.1065 bulls remain weak. A weekly close above it will open the way for a move towards 1.1150 at least with potential reaching the lower Kumo (cloud) boundary near 1.13. Long-term trend remains bearish but bears should lower stops and protect their profits as the bullish wedge pattern shown in the first chart could push price towards 1.14 if we see a break out above the wedge.

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Weekly Gold analysis

Gold price had a strong positive week with a low at $1,459 while in the end it closed near its highs at $1,504. $1,500 remains a pivotal price level and as long as price holds above it bulls could make another try to break the weekly resistance at $1,535.

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Red rectangle - overbought RSI Possible top

Green line -major long-term support trend line

Gold price ended last week above $1,500 having a positive week despite the deep pull back towards our first target of $1,460. Price bounced strongly and closed above $1,500. However the important resistance is last week's high at $1,536. A break above this level will open the way for $1,600. Bulls however need to be very cautious as the weekly RSI is turning lower below 70. A break in price below last week's low would be a very bearish sign.

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In Ichimoku cloud terms, bulls barely saved the day the last minute. A weekly close above $1,496 held bulls in control of the trend. Will they be strong enough this week? A weekly close below $1,496 in Ichimoku cloud terms would open the way for a move towards $1,410. So bulls need to be very cautious.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com