Fractal analysis of GOLD on July 24

Analytical review of Gold. According to Gold, the upward structure of July 19 is considered as a large initial condition. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1229.63 July 24 - 25. The level of 1218.15 is the key support

The forecast for July 24:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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For Gold, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1250.88, 1242.62, 1239.59, 1235.48, 1229.63, 1220.96, 1218.15 and 1213.01. Here we follow the formation of the upward structure of July 19. Continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1229.63, here the first target is 1239.59, the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 1239.59, in the corridor 1239.59 - 1242.62 consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1250.88, upon reaching this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The range 1220.96 - 1218.15 is the key support for the ascending structure, its passage by the price will have to develop the downward movement, in this case the first target is 1213.01.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the top of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1229.80 Take profit: 1235.40

Buy: 1235.60 Take profit: 1239.50

Sell: 1218.10 Take profit: 1213.00

Sell: Take profit:

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for July 24. Correction wave 4 is ready for completion

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Monday, the currency pair EUR / USD fell by 35 percentage points. The current wave counting assumes completion of the wave formation of wave e, 4. If this is the case, then the decline in quotations will continue with targets located at least about 15 figures. The confirmation of the transition to the construction of the downward impulse wave 5 will be a successful attempt to break the lower generatrix of the tapering line of the line. The breakthrough of the upper line generates, on the contrary, the readiness of the tool to build an upward set of waves and will require the introduction of corrections to the current wave counting.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1507 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1444 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1834 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.1957 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The correction wave 4 supposedly completed its construction. Based on this, I recommend that you continue to form sales by pair in order to build a downtrend wave 5 with the first targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1507 and 1.1444, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci, built on the size of the whole wave 4. The breakthrough of the rising line of the channel will allow to increase sales of the pair.

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D. Trump does not calm down at all

The summer heat seems to have influenced the mood of the US president, who, following promises to raise import duties from China to $ 300 billion, is threatening to do the same for the EU.

The White House does not rest in the person of D. Trump. After promises to increase customs duties on the import of goods from China to $ 300 billion, the US president said that if negotiations between his country and Brussels fail, of course, this is not in favor of the States, then trade duties will be introduced for the export of cars from Europe to 20%. Trump demands that Europeans remove the customs barriers to the import of goods from the United States. In fact, he continues to exert forceful pressure on the Brussels bureaucracy, trying to use force to change the balance of trade balance between the EU and the States in favor of the latter.

As for the measures aimed at exporting cars from Europe, this will be the strongest blow, first of all, on the German car industry. And if everything turns out that in fact economic sanctions will be introduced in the form of high customs duties, then the economy of Germany will receive a sensible blow, and the euro can be under the strongest pressure. Against this background, the ECB, already under the pressure of officials from the Federal Republic of Germany, may forget about its desire next year, or rather in the second half, to begin the process of raising interest rates. Such a change in the course of the European regulator will unambiguously lead to a reversal of the main currency pair of eurodollar down, and it is possible that even in the long term it will test the level of parity with the US currency.

In our opinion, considering the possibility of such prospects, as well as the nature of Trump and his persistent desire to carry out paragraph by point of his election program, the single currency will remain under pressure until the outcome of the negotiations to be held on July 25. Also, it is likely to be adversely affected by the ECB's meeting on monetary policy this Thursday. The bank is unlikely to signal about changing its view on monetary policy, which it corrected at the June meeting.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that the overall lateral trend of the main currency pair will continue, like all currency pairs in Forex, where the US dollar is present.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is trading under the level of 1.1685 on the wave of positive production data from Germany, which came out this morning. But the pair is experiencing growth problems because of the ECB's position on monetary policy and the high risk of realizing Trump's threats with regard to imports of cars to the US from Europe. On this wave, the pair may fall to 1.1575, remaining generally on the "outset".

The GBP / USD currency pair is trading above the 1.3100 mark, the intersection of which from top to bottom will lead to its fall to 1.3050.

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Trading plan for July 24, 2018

Politics, of course, has an impact on markets, but only for a short time. That's exactly what happened with the criticism of the Fed from Donald Trump. The words of the US president about the fact that the Fed is not clear why, instead of helping to make America great again, led to a serious weakening of the dollar. However, after the passions subsided, many realized that further this Donald Trump can not go, because he simply does not have the authority to do so. So besides the verbal attacks of the owner of the White House, there are no other ways to influence the Fed. So during yesterday, the dollar was restoring its positions, which completely fits into the traditional formula "Monday vs. Friday". Apparently, the panic that covered market participants at the end of last week was so emotional that investors overdid with the sale of the dollar, and yesterday nothing could stop its strengthening. Even the decline in home sales in the secondary market, which declined by 0.6%.

Today, we are waiting for preliminary data on the index of business activity in Europe, which are expected not the most joyful. So, the index of business activity in the service sector should decrease from 55.2 to 55.0, and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 54.9 to 54.6. As a consequence, the composite index of business activity may fall from 54.9 to 54.8. But in the US, similar data can show the invariability of business activity indices. True, such a discrepancy between European and American data will not help the dollar slightly, since US statistics differ in that factual data often differ from preliminary data. And for the worse.

The euro / dollar currency pair, after a sharp Friday recovery, found a resistance point in the face of the periodic-range level of 1,1720 / 1,1750, where it managed to restore its downward positions. Probably assume a further slight understatement to the levels of 1,1660-1,1650, where temporary stagnation is possible.

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The currency pair pound / dollar after the formation of the correction found a resistance point in the face of a periodic value of 1.3150. It is possible to assume a further decline to 1.3060-1.3050, where temporary stagnation is possible.

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USD / JPY: The southern trend may be a trap

The yen is paired with the dollar in recent days for two reasons: first, because of the increase in anti-risk sentiment in the market, and secondly because of rumors about possible actions of the Japanese regulator. And if the interest in defensive assets arose, thanks to the loud statements of Trump, then rumors about the Bank of Japan spread several news agencies.In general, the southern dynamics of USD / JPY does not look quite reliable and stable, given the fundamental factors that pushed the pair to decline. Special caution must be shown near the 110 mark, this target is given very difficult for traders, both when moving "from the bottom up", and on the way back "from top to bottom." To consolidate USD / JPY below the level of 110, bear pairs need strong arguments, not ghostly rumors or Trump's verbal intentions."I'm ready to go for 500", this phrase of the American president, said in an interview late last week, deployed a couple of USD / JPY by 180 degrees. Donald Trump confirmed his willingness to impose duties on all imported Chinese goods for $ 500 billion. On the one hand, this is not new. He repeatedly stated such intentions, but only in the fires of angry statements about China's trade policy. But, on the other hand, this phrase was another confirmation of the fact that Washington will not stop there. Moreover, there is no need to talk about any serious achievements. Beijing took a siege by devaluing the yuan and sending complaints to the WTO. China is in no hurry to respond, but is not going to surrender, judging by the latest statements of officials of the Middle Kingdom.This line of behavior frankly irritates the White House. It is for this reason that a new list of goods imported from China has appeared, which will be subject to 10% duties. A six-thousand-strong list of Chinese products worth a total of $ 200 billion was to push Beijing toward compromise solutions, but the PRC only encouraged the United States to "keep cool on trade issues."In other words, China, firstly, has kept a wait-and-see attitude, and secondly, ignored the statement of the US Treasury Secretary, who proposed to conclude a deal earlier. Let me remind you that Steven Mnuchin said last week that the White House is ready to conclude a trade agreement with Beijing, but only if the Chinese radically change their trade policy. According to him, the future deal should include not only the rejection of the practice of forced transfer of innovative technologies, but also the protection of intellectual property of Americans. The Chinese did not accept this message as a "business proposal" and did not even comment, at least in the public sphere.All this suggests that the game of promotion by Trump will continue and he is really ready to "go up to 500" in trade relations with China. Such conclusions contradict the earlier rumors about a possible Chinese surrender. The rhetoric of the American president says that it's too early to talk about any capitulation, and even more so about the deal. This fact has increased the demand for defensive assets, including the yen.In the same television interview, Donald Trump criticized the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed, after which the dollar fell under the general wave of sales. The combination of two fundamental factors increased the pressure on USD / JPY, after which the pair returned to the area of the 110th figure.However, at the end of last week, there was another reason for the fundamental nature, which provided support to the yen. It is about the possible actions of the Bank of Japan, which is allegedly ready to change its policy in order to increase the yield of bonds. Several news agencies circulated this information with reference to anonymous sources in the Japanese Central Bank. Let me remind you that since last year, the Bank of Japan has been monitoring the yield curve of government bonds to increase the efficiency of buying bonds and interest rates, which are in the negative area. However, the profitability of the banking sector is still under certain pressure, and now the management of the Japanese regulator is allegedly planning to review the parameters of monetary policy. It is, in particular, about changing the target levels of interest rates and the procedure of buying up shares.It is worth noting that such rumors arise if not regularly, then often enough, especially around the possible actions of the Bank of Japan. But in most cases, these rumors remain rumors. In my opinion, it is unlikely that in the current conditions, the regulator will take actions that would strengthen the positions of the national currency. Low inflation remains a "headache" for the Central Bank, so the strengthening of the yen will only slow down and so the weak growth of inflation indicators. Moreover, according to other sources, the Bank of Japan at its July meeting (30-31 numbers) may reconsider its inflationary forecasts downward. This fact, of course, will weaken the yen, unless the escalation of the trade war provokes the demand for defensive assets.

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Thus, the southern trend of USD / JPY looks unreliable. The intentions of Trump "go for 500" frightened the market, but not enough to go below the 110th figure. In turn, rumors about possible actions of the Bank of Japan, first, are contradictory, and secondly, they are often not confirmed. All this indicates that the bulls of the pair can soon return the pair to at least the first level of support, which was struck yesterday, the line Tenkan-sen, which corresponds to the level of 111.95.

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Trading plan for the US session on July 23 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

In the first half of the day, buyers were unable to get above 1.3147 and made a false breakdown. In the US session, the main task is again the breakdown and consolidation above resistance 1.3147, which will return demand for the British pound and lead to a test of a new high near 1.3203, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of the next decline in the pound, it is best to return to long positions at a rebound of 1.3076.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakdown, which I paid attention to in the morning review, led to the first wave of the pound's decline. In the case of another failed fixing above 1.3147 and in the afternoon, you can also count on short positions, the main purpose of which will be the update of support 1.3076. In case of growth above 1.3147, you can sell the pound for a rebound from 1.3203.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for July 23. The Briton perfectly completed the construction of wave 5

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on July 20, the GBP / USD currency pair added about 125 percentage points and an attempt to break the mark of 1.2962 failed, but touching this mark was enough to consider the wave 5, 3, a, completed. If this assumption is correct, now we are expecting the construction of an upward set of waves, but there is also a good chance that the proposed wave 3 will take a more complex and extended form. Thus, in the coming days, one should follow the pair about its behavior in order to determine the further trend. A successful attempt to break the low of July 19 will indicate the readiness of the pair to a new decline.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3445 - 0.0% of Fibonacci (formal goal)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2962 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.2809 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair supposedly completed the construction of wave 5, 3, a. For several days (1-2) I recommend observing the pair without opening deals, because now it is necessary to clarify the situation and decide on a new working variant. The probabilities of a downward wave 3, a, and the construction of an upward set of waves with a refinement of wave counting, are now approximately equal.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 24, 2018

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Overview:

The key level is seen at the price of 1.3247, for that the trend is still moving around it since this week. The USD/CAD pair will probably continue to rise from the level of 1.3139. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.3139 which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3247. So, buy above the level of 1.3247 with the first target at 1.3309 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3385. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 1.3385 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3064, a further decline to 1.2990 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 24, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where bearish pressure was expressed on July 17.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside the consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1750 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Please note that any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1850 (the upper limit of the depicted supply zone).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 24, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until a bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (the neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been already achieved.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed a further decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

A quick decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed a temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market.

Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart. The bulls failed to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820 which may endanger the bullish reversal scenario.

That's why, bullish fixation above 0.6820 is mandatory to allow a further bullish advance. Otherwise, a further decline should be expected towards 0.6680.

Trade Recommendations: The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry. Bullish fixation above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1752. Besides, it should be noted that the level of 1.1752 coincides with the pivot point. This week, the pair has dropped from the level of 1.1752 to the bottom around 1.1678. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1694, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1752, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1694, the market will decline further to 1.1623 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1752 with the first target at 1.1663 and further to 1.1566. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1810 (61.8% of fibonacci retracament levels, golden ratio).

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Bitcoin analysis for July 24, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a complete flag abce downward correction in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $8.520.

Support/Resistance

$8.000 – Intraday resistance

$7.600– Intraday support

$8.520 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for July 24, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,220.00. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I found a breakout of well-defined bullish flag, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,234.75.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1.232.40

R2: $1.240.45

R3: $1,245.20

Support levels:

S1: $1,219.45

S2: $1,214.30

S3: $1,20665

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 24/07/2018

After a clear cooling of the economic situation in the first half of the year, the beginning of July brought a stabilization of the growth rate in the Eurozone at a moderate level - according to the latest PMI readings.

According to the IHS Markit, the combined PMI index for the Eurozone industry and services sector in July was 54.3 points. This result is lower than June's 54.9 points and the second lowest result since November 2016. This is a flash reading, based on approx. 85% of surveys sent to various enterprises.

The services sector disappointed: the PMI index reached 54.4 points compared to 55.2 points in June versus 55 points expected by economists. An analogous indicator for the Eurozone manufacturing sector was 55.1 points and was slightly higher than a month earlier (54.9 points) and higher than expected by economists (54.6 points).

Basically, these are not bad results, because PMI ratios above 50 points signal an increase in economic activity in the surveyed sector, so the current readings of 55 points still point to the ongoing economic recovery. Only that we are comparing the most recent data to the state at the end of 2017, when the European PMI indications reached 60 points and recorded 17-year highs. The question remains whether they will ever return to this levels.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data were published. The market went towards the level of 1.1662, which is a 50% Fibo retracement and then jumped back towards the level of 1.1700. No major breakout occurred, so the price returned to the middle of the intraday range between the levels of 1.1655 - 1.1710 as the momentum remains neutral.

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Overview of EUR / USD pair as of July 24, 2018

EUR / USD pair

Monday passed by quietly in the market. The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even tried to smooth out the president's recent lull over monetary policy, saying that the government supports the Fed's independence. Sales of homes in the US secondary real estate market fell from 5.41 million to 5.38 million in June. In the euro area, the data also showed no improvement as the consumer confidence index for July remained at -1.

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The euro was unable to break through the technical range of 1.1750 / 90, but on the daily chart, the price is still above the red balance sheet line and above the blue trend line. The Marlin Oscillator is also in the trend growth zone. At the turbulent discontent of Trump monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, investors responded to the sale of government bonds, which raised the yield of 5-year securities from 2.76% to 2.82%. The investors have pointedly preferred Trump's optimistic plans to the Fed.

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On the four-hour chart, the price returned under the trend line, gaining a foothold in the previously indicated range of 1.1680-1.1700. But even here the price balance remains bullish, the price is higher than the red line, as well as, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive numbers. There is no divergence price with an oscillator. This, of course, is not an obligatory element of the trend reversal, but this is quite frequent. As a result, uncertainty persists.

In the euro area today, business activity indicators for July will come out. Manufacturing PMI is projected to decrease from 54.9 to 54.7 while Services PMI is likely to decrease from 55.2 to 55.0. In the US, PMI services from Markit are projected to remain unchanged at 56.5, and Markit Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall from 55.4 to 55.1. That is, economic indicators can preserve the created neutral position.

The dollar has the only advantage during periods of calm on a global growing trend, as it has strengthened. However, the price must overcome the support of the trend line on a daily scale (1.1630). In this case, all the indicators on the daily and lower timeframes agree on the further medium-term price reduction. Today, there is no rush to market. On Thursday, these events are expected: ECB will decide on the monetary policy, the OPEC + monitoring committee meets and the US orders durable goods for June will be released.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 24, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3128. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found potential buying climax in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a rejection of the supply trendline (resistance), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3035 and at the price of 1.2960.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3147

R2: 1.3190

R3: 1.3222

Support levels:

S1: 1.3072

S2: 1.3040

S3: 1.2997

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 24/07/2018

The recent Trump's comments regarding the US Dollar did not help him much, but there is another risk of successive remarks of the US president, which are unbearable, especially tomorrow when Trump meets with the head of the European Commission Juncker. In addition, the global investors are still focused on fundamentals and these continue to support the dollar. Yesterday's data from the real estate market, although at first glance, showed a lower reading than forecasts, then sales problems are taking place with an insufficient number of vacant homes. The Americans want to continue to buy, but it is getting harder and harder. Secondly, China announced at the beginning of the day new measures to ease the monetary and fiscal policy, mainly aimed at increasing lending and strengthening domestic demand. A side effect (or deliberate in the field of commercial war) is the weakening of the yuan and pushing capital towards the USD. Thirdly, we observe the decrease in US Treasury bonds and an increase in yields, which traditionally helps the dollar. This last aspect is quite peculiar, because the reasons for the debt sale lie in the speculation about a possible change in the strategy of the Bank of Japan. BoJ is expected to increase the yield on Japanese debt (keeping the 5-year profitability close to 0.0% instead of the 10-year-old), which will increase the attractiveness of bonds for Japanese investors who will return with capital, among others from the US market. However, the BoJ will allow only a slight increase in profitability (as it remains in an expansionary attitude), but the field for profitability growth in the US is much larger. Hence, the benefits of USD are also more possible.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have made a recent swing top at the level of 113.17, but the higher prices were rejected and the price has to plummet towards the technical support at the level of 110.80. Currently, the market is trying to bounce towards the level of 11.66 (38% Fibo), but the key technical zone is located between the levels of 111.95 - 112.24. Only a sustained breakout above this level will open the road towards the recent highs, otherwise, the price is likely to drop further.

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Euro needs correction for new wave of growth

Weak data on consumer confidence in the euro area led to a further decline in the euro yesterday afternoon. Despite this, a small downward correction in risky assets, which is observed today at the beginning of the trading day, does not threaten the upward trend that was formed at the end of last week.

Data on the index of national activity in the US from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago helped the US dollar resume its growth.

According to the report, the national activity index in June 2018 was 0.43 points against -0.45 points in May. The May data was revised upward from -0.15. Growth was associated with an increase in production indicators. In all, 45 indicators showed growth, while the remaining 40 indicators decreased. The moving average index for three months in June rose to +0.16.

Limited ascending short-term potential of the US dollar was weak data on sales in the secondary housing market of the US.

According to the report, rising prices and a limited supply of homes led to a drop in sales in the summer. The report of the National Association of Realtors showed that sales in the secondary housing market in June decreased by 0.6% compared to the previous month and amounted to 5.38 million homes per year. Economists had expected that sales in June will grow to 5.45 million homes a year. In comparison with the same period of the previous year, sales in June fell by 2.2%.

As noted above, weak data on consumer confidence in the euro area put pressure on the euro. According to the report, the preliminary index of consumer confidence in the eurozone for July 2018 remained at a negative level of -0.6. The main pressure on the index has political problems and disagreements between the US and the EU on trade relations.

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Yesterday, it also became known that the EU negotiator Michel Barnier rejected the last UK proposal on Brexit. This is indicated in the message of the Financial Times. It is important to note that the proposal of the British side was to keep the UK free access to the financial market of the EU after leaving the political bloc.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the pressure on the euro will continue. However, this will benefit the buyers of risky assets, as it will create the lower border of the new uplink. Support for the 1.1660 area may be intermediate, but a larger level of 1.1640 will be a good area for opening new long positions in euros, in anticipation of continued growth.

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Trading plan for 24/07/2018

The foreign exchange market spent the Asian part of the session in a slow horizontal drift. USD slowly continues to rebound after the Friday's breakdown. The Chinese yuan is losing, but the Shanghai stock exchange is growing - both in response to news about policy delays by the PBOC. Oil remains stable, although low after yesterday's depreciation.

Lack of information in the last hours allowed for calm trading on the currency market. EUR / USD fell slightly to 1.1680, USD / JPY reached 111.30 after falling to 111.11 at night. The focus at night stays on USD / CNY, which returns over 6.80. The market is trying to digest reports of new activities of the People's Bank of China on supporting lending. What harms the currency, helps the stock market and Shanghai Composite grows today 1.4%. The stock market in Asia is generally in a better mood and the Japanese Nikkei225 gains 0.5%.

Crude Oil analysis for 24/07/2018:

WTI crude oil is on 4-day lows at 67.60. The night passed calmly, and lower levels were set yesterday in the evening, when the market participants was informed that the US government is working on changes that limit fuel consumption by 35 miles / gallon by 2020. Previous projects said a gradual increase of the limit to 50 miles / gallon until 2025. Information comes from sources and the entire legislative process will take a long time.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bullish rally was rejected at the level of 69.24 and the price felt towards the level of 67.60. If this level is violated, then the next target for bears is seen at the level of 66.52 and then 65.96. The momentum remains below its fity level, so the short-term bearish outlook is now preffered.

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EUR/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

EUR/JPY is approaching its support at 129.60 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where a bounce is expected, causing price to rise to its resistance at 131.12 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.5% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EUR/JPY is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 129.60. Stop loss at 128.54. Take profit at 131.12.

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EUR/USD Reversed Nicely Off Resistance!

EUR/USD has reversed off its resistance at 1.1745 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fiboancci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where price could pullback to before making a further move down to its support at 1.1644 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

EUR/USD reversed nicely off its resistance where we expect a further drop.

Sell entry 1.1745. Stop loss 1.1789. Take profit at 1.1644.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently after rejecting the bulls off the 132.00 area with a daily close. It has been bearish for straight 5 days since the rejection and expected to push lower towards 129.50 area in the coming days from where it has equal chances of pushing higher and breaking below to push much lower in the future.

Despite the Trade War tensions and G-20 Meetings, EUR has been struggling to sustain the momentum it had over JPY earlier. Today EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 52.6 from the previous figure of 52.5, French Flash Services PMI report is expected to decrease to 55.7 from the previous figure of 55.9, German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 55.5 from the previous figure of 55.9 and German Flash Services PMI is expected to increase to 54.6 from the previous figure of 54.5. Moreover, today Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI report is also going to be published which is expected to decrease to 54.7 from the previous figure of 54.9 and Flash Services PMI is also expected to decrease to 55.0 from the previous figure of 55.2.

On the other hand, today JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 51.6 from the previous figure of 53.0 which was expected to increase to 53.2 and BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to increase to 0.6%.

As of the current scenario, the EURO has been quite a pessimist about the economic reports to be published today whereas JPY has been quite worse with it as well. Despite the economic reports and events about global trade problems, JPY is quite ahead of EURO in all perspective and expected to dominate further whereas certain volatility may occur in the process leading to certain indecisions as well.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish having intersected by the dynamic level of 20 EMA just above the support area of 129.50 from where there are certain chances of price bouncing off and pushing higher towards 132.00 area in the future. Though having a daily close above 129.50 is expected to inject certain bullish pressure in the market but a daily close below 129.50 is expected to push the price much lower towards 127.00 area in the future. As of the current formation, there is a higher probability of price pushing further lower in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 129.50, 127.00

RESISTANCE: 132.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2018

The EUR/USD pair got rejected once again at the major resistance area of 1.1730-1.1760. Price remains inside the triangle pattern. Maybe Thursday after the ECB meeting we could see a break out above or below the triangle that will justify trend continuation lower towards 1.12 or reversal towards 1.20.

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Red line - RSI support

Black lines - triangle pattern

The EUR/USD is in a sideways trend. Resistance remains strong at 1.1730-1.1760. Support is at 1.1590. The RSI is right on support trend line so we could see a bounce from 1.1650 area. A break above 1.1730-1.1760 will open the way for a push towards 1.21. A break below 1.1590 will most probably push the price towards 1.13.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 24, 2018

The Gold price remains inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. The Gold price got rejected at the upper wedge boundary yesterday.

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Black lines - bullish wedge

Red line - bullish divergence

The Gold price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. The trend remains bearish. Support is at $1,212 and next at $1,200. Resistance is at $1,230 and $1,235. Bulls need to break out above the wedge pattern for a bigger bounce to come. The bullish divergence signs justify a bigger bounce.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD For July 24, 2018

At the 4-hour chart, the kiwie dollar looks like forming a Pennant pattern. NZD/USD is trading with lower volatility. This market conditions are normal because in two days ahead the price will enter the Mercury Retrograde phenomenon which is running from July 26, 2018 until August 18, 2018. In this period, the market is moving slowly, trading sideways. The market tends to be choppy. That's why we can see NZD/USD start making a narrow range in a Pennant / Triangle Form. This indicates that the market has lost volatility. Please take a notice approximately on August 8-10, 2018 (10 workdays after the Mercury Retrograde start) as there is a possibility for the price to break out from its narrow condition. (Disclaimer)

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Yen: smoke without fire does not happen

Rumors that the Bank of Japan will make adjustments to the monetary policy at its meeting in late July and served a good yen. The USD / JPY pair fell to a two-week low, competent source information from Bloomberg and Reuters who wanted to remain anonymous about more flexible management of the yield curve and about changing the technical nuances of buying bonds and specialized exchange funds within the quantitative easing program. Yield of 10-year bonds of the Land of the Rising Sun took off at the fastest pace in almost two years, BoJ was forced to enter the market with an offer for unlimited purchases of assets and to excuse Haruhiko Kuroda, himself, from Buenos Aires. According to the Governor of the Central Bank, there is no such thing as yet. Is it so or smoke without fire did not happen?

When you are stuffing the economy for a long time with cheap money within QE, and then you also enter control over the yield curve, the result is still not there. The question arises: are you able to achieve it? Or will others do it for you? Factors such as the aging of the population, its deflationary thinking and new technologies limit the growth potential of inflation. Large-scale purchases of assets do not bring benefits. Moreover, the growth of the balance is slowing down, since the figure of 80 trillion yen, in fact, has become a story. The actual amount of bonds purchased and ETF is almost twice as large. This is quite enough to keep rates on 10-year debt obligations near zero.

Dynamics of inflation and balance of the Bank of Japan

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One of the factors is the strong yen where there is persistent reluctance of consumer prices to move in the direction of targeting at 2%. Over the past three years, it has strengthened against the US dollar by 10%, and competes with the "American" for the title of the best performer of the year among the G10 currencies in 2018. The fall in the value of imports and producer prices limits the potential for CPI growth and creates a serious headache for the Bank of Japan. He cannot allow a repeat of the 2017 history with the euro, which grew due to rumors about the normalization of the ECB monetary policy. On the contrary, BoJ should think about how to make politics even milder than now, which is an extremely difficult task.

At the same time, the verbal intervention of Donald Trump who is dissatisfied with the Fed's raising of the federal funds rate and the strengthening of the US dollar which is helping to lower the USD / JPY quotations. The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the rapid growth of the US economy contributed to the analysis of a pair of 6-month highs analyzed. I do not think that bulls will be able to develop their attack by the yen even before the release of the US GDP data for the second quarter. Investors put the quotation of the pair with possible growth of the US economy by 4% q / q and above, which will extend a helping hand to the dollar's fans and, most likely, will result in the consolidation of USD / JPY pair.

Technically, only a confident breakthrough of support at 109.1 and 108.5 will allow the "bears" to activate the "Shark" pattern and move towards its target by 88.6%.

USD / JPY, daily chart

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 24, 2018

If we look at the 4-hour chart on GBP/JPY, we know that the price has changed its direction to bearish since this pair had broken out and closed below the 21-period Moving Average. At present, this pair is going to test the next Fibonacci 78.6% support at 144.94 as long as the price has not made the upward correction, has not breached and closed above the 146.64. Thus, this pair is still trading with a bearish bias. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for July 24, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains since it bounced off the 113.20 area with a daily close last week. Yesterday the price action was quite indecisive having no definite momentum on either side of the market. Despite the recent positive economic reports, USD is still struggling to sustain the momentum it had over JPY earlier.

Today JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 51.6 from the previous figure of 53.0 which was expected to increase to 53.2 and BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to increase to 0.6%.

On the other hand, ahead of the Advance GDP report to be published on Friday, today USD HPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% which previously was at 0.1%, Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease slightly to 55.1 from the previous figure of 55.4, Flash Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 56.5 and Richmond Manufacturing Index report is expected to publish with decrease to 18 from the previous figure of 20.

As of the current scenario, as per Trade War tensions between US and Japan, certain volatility is quite obvious but USD struggling to gain momentum in the process with an impulsive sell-off did shake the market sentiment for a bit. Though the bearish pressure is starting to look weak currently but ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports, USD may gain momentum after a bit further dip downward in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive residing above the support area of 110.50 with a daily close. Though the price has breached below the dynamic level of support in the process but certain bearish momentum for retest at 110.50 is expected before the price push higher again with target towards 113.20 in the coming days. As the price remains above the support zone of 108.50-110.50 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 108.50-110.50

RESISTANCE: 113.20

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for 24/07/2018

The catalyst that caused the recent increase in Bitcoin may be related to the SEC's consideration of the CBOE application for the purchase of Bitcoins via ETF (stock exchange funds). This would allow institutional money to buy BTC for the general public and anyone interested in investing in their fund. This is the main concern for the US regulatory authorities, whose purpose is to determine how to protect the investor in the case of, for example, theft of BTC (insurance).

CBOE obtained the approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission for trading in futures, although at that time SEC had similar concerns regarding investor protection. Because CBOE guarantees that they deal with insurance and infrastructure issues, it looks like it may be the first ETF approved to purchase BTC.

Recently, it was announced that over 50% of the money that has entered the cryptographic space since 2018 is institutional money. This assumes that the ETF approval may take place even though the previous applications were rejected by the SEC.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the technical resistance at the level of $7,753 and even spiked through the level of $7,890. The bullish impulsive wave scenario is unfolding very well. The ongoing impulsive cycle is now almost done as there are visible five waves to the upside and the price is in the last wave up. The clear and visible bearish divergence between the wave three and the wave five is supporting the short-term bearish outlook - the correction is coming.

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Trading Plan for Gold for July 24,, 2018

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Technical outlook:

Gold hourly chart setups look to be poised for an extended rally towards at least $1,250.00 levels if not higher. Please note that this is just a corrective rally and not a change in trend that we are expecting. The push could also move towards $1,265.00 levels before it finds resistance as shown here. Gold chart setups show that the metal has pushed 3 waves up from $1,211 through $1,235 levels and has corrected lower in 3 waves as well. A potential 5 waves rally from here could complete a flat corrective wave structure. Also please note that the metal is finding support around Fibonacci 0.618 levels for now and a bullish reversal is high probable trade direction from here on.

Trading plan:

Remain long now, $1,220.00, stop below $1,211, target is $1,250 and $1,265

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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Trading Plan for GBP/USD for July 24, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair also staged an impressive rally last week and followed through with another high yesterday at the 1.3158 levels before pulling back lower. The pair is seen to be trading around the 1.3090 levels for now and has found interim support at the 1.3080 levels (fibonacci 0.382). There is still room to drop through the 1.3035/40 levels, before resuming its rally further. Please note that the 1.3035/40 levels is the past resistance turned support zone and Fibonacci 0.618 support is also seen around the same region. A bounce there should take the prices higher toward the 1.3300 levels, at least. Only if the prices break below the 1.2960 levels, last week's low, the current bullish scenario would be nullified. High probability direction from here is a rally ahead.

Trading plan:

Initiate fresh long positions around 1.3040/50, stop at 1.2950, target at 1.3300, at least.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 24, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German FlashServices PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and HPI m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1750.

Strong Resistance: 1.1743.

Original Resistance: 1.1732.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1721.

Target Inner Area: 1.1693.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1665.

Original Support: 1.1654.

Strong Support: 1.1643.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1636.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 24, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y, and Flash ManufacturingPMI and the US will release some Economic Data such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and HPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low tomedium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.72.

Resistance. 2: 111.50.

Resistance. 1: 111.28.

Support. 1: 111.01.

Support. 2: 110.79.

Support. 3: 110.57.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors.The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all therisks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice froman independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for July 24, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index had produced a meaningful drop last week and followed up yesterday towards fresh lows at the 94.20 levels, before pulling back higher again. Please note that the recent lows at 94.20 have taken out immediate support as seen here. It could be safe to assume that the drop from 95.50 through the 94.20 levels could be the first leg lower and that the index would continue dropping lower after a small pullback was over. The current counter trend or pullback rally is most likely to push through the 95.10 levels, which is Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the previous drop from 95.50 through the 94.20 levels, respectively. Going further, we can expect the US Dollar Index to drop towards the 92.00 levels if not more.

Trading plan:

Initiate fresh short positions from the 95.00/10 levels, stop above 95.50 and target towards 92.00 at least.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 24, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair had staged a rally from the last week's lows at the 1.1575 levels, closing the week higher above the 1.1720 levels. Yesterday's high at the 1.1750 levels took out an immediate resistance as shown above, giving an edge to the bulls to be able to continue their rally. At this moment, we can fairly conclude that bulls are taking a break or pulling back lower, before they resume the rally towards 1.1850 and higher levels. The pullback is stalling at the Fibonacci 0.382 level for now, but it could extend lower towards the 0.618 support around the 1.1640/50 levels, before resuming again. Only a break below the 1.1575 levels would nullify the present bullish scenario.

Trading plan:

Initiate fresh longs around the 1.1640/50 levels, stop at 1.1570, target at the 1.1850 levels and higher.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2018

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We continue to look for more upside pressure through resistance at 1.7268 and more importantly through resistance at 1.7305, that calls for red wave iii towards 1.7505 on the way higher towards 1.8381.

Support is now seen at 1.7206 and again at 1.7170. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7268.

R3: 1.7305

R2: 1.7268

R1: 1.7232

Pivot: 1.7208

S1: 1.7184

S2: 1.7164

S3: 1.7144

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR at 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.7268 and start by using the same stop at 1.7110.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2018

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We expect a corrective low to be in place at near 129.76 (the 61.8% corrective target of red wave iii or alternate red wave i/. A break above minor resistance at 130.44 will be a strong indication that a new impulsive rally towards 133.60 is developing in red wave v or alternate red wave iii/.

As long as resistance at 130.44 is able to cap the upside, we could see a final spike closer to resistance at 129.75, but a corrective low should be set soon.

R3: 131.05

R2: 130.75

R1: 130.44

Pivot: 130.27

S1: 130.01

S2: 129.75

S3: 129.56

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 129.80 was hit for a loss. We will buy EUR again upon a break above 130.44 and place our stop 10 pips below the most recent low.

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Donald Trump helped strengthen the euro and pound

The euro continued to confidently restore its positions against the US dollar against the backdrop of statements made by the US president on Friday, as well as comments from representatives of the Federal Reserve System.

Traders reacted through short positions on the US dollar and purchases of risky assets after US President Donald Trump on Twitter spoke out against the EU and China. Trump believes that China and the European Union are engaged in manipulating the national currency and interest rates, while in the US, they are moving in a different way. According to the US president, China and the euro zone are plundering the US, depriving them of a great competitive advantage.

On Friday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis also expressed concerns about the excessive interest in raising interest rates on the part of the Fed, which was observed this year.

James Bullard reiterated his appeal and called for a halt to the rate hike, as further tightening of the policy could lead to the inversion of the yield curve.

Bullard also said that he was not surprised by Trump's speech, which was attacked with criticism of the Fed's policy. However, in his opinion, the committee remains an independent body and Trump can influence it only by appointing new leaders. At the end of the speech, the representative of the Federal Reserve noted once again hat the Fed is very good at fulfilling its tasks in the form of maintaining price stability and maximum employment.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the demand for the euro will continue, but only after the break and consolidation above the large range of 1.1745-1.1750, which will open a direct road to a large resistance of 1.1790, and then return to the highs of June this year in the area of 1.1850 and 1.1890. If the demand on the range of 1.1745-1.1750 is not present again, the pressure on the euro may significantly increase that may lead to a correction in the area of 1.1670 and 1.1600.

The Canadian dollar against the US dollar also increased significantly on Friday after a good inflation report, which in June reached a maximum in more than six years. The main reason for the growth was high energy prices.

According to the data, the general consumer price index of Canada increased by 2.5% in June compared to the same period last year, after an annual growth of 2.2% in May. Economists expected that annual inflation would grow by 2.3%. Compared to May, the consumer price index of Canada showed an increase of 0.1%.

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Also in May, retail sales increased substantially. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, retail sales rose by 2% in May compared with April and amounted to 50.76 billion Canadian dollars, while economists expected growth of only 1%.

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Weekly review of the foreign exchange market as of July 23, 2018

Almost the whole of the past week, the dollar continued to strengthen, and if a week earlier, the main driver of its growth was the political statements of Donald Trump, this time much more contribution was made by statistical data. However, at the very end of the week, Donald trump has put his hand to the weakening of the dollar. So politics again interfered in the natural course of things. It is interesting that at the end of the week only the single European currency was able to improve its position against the dollar. The pound failed to win back the fall of the beginning of the week.

The fun began with a speech by Jerome Powell, during which he expressed his disagreement with the White House's customs policy. In his opinion, international trade should not be hindered, and the increase in customs duties only creates new barriers. Thus, the head of the Fed joined his colleagues from the ECB and The Bank of England, and also touched on the topic of trade wars. But unlike the single European currency and the pound, the dollar strengthened after that. The fact is that both Mario Draghi and Mark Carney, after mentioning the trade war, are immediately pressed about the inexpediency of raising the refinancing rate or seriously hint at the extension of the program of quantitative easing. Representatives of the Bank of England have recently announced the possibility of resuming their quantitative easing program. So, while the ECB and the Bank of England continue to remain in the ostrich's favorite position, the Fed does not intend to revise its plans to tighten monetary policy.

Another important event of the beginning of the week was the meeting of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. But the meeting of the leaders of the world's largest nuclear powers is not so important for the financial world. The very next day Donald Trump on his return to the United States almost renounced all the words he said during a joint press conference with Vladimir Putin.

But at the very end of the week, Donald Trump gave out his next pearl, which led to the weakening of the dollar. The owner of the White House appears to have taken offense at the words of Jerome Powell about his efforts for the benefit of the American people, and said that he did not understand what the Fed is doing. For instance, they do not make enough effort to make America great again. Market participants regarded this as interference by the White House in the Fed's policy, which is not only prohibited by law, but also does not bode well for investors. If the policy pursued by the Fed is influenced by Donald Trump, which is not particularly predictable, then there can be no question of any investment planning.

But, in addition to politics, there were also data that reflect the real situation in the economy of certain countries, and it explains why the pound could not win back its losses in the first half of the week, even after Donald Trump launched an attack on the Fed. The fact is that the British statistics was simply terrible. So, although the unemployment rate remained unchanged, but the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 7.8 thousand moreover, the rate of growth of average wages slowed from 2.8% to 2.7%. But this does not include premiums, and taking into account the premiums, the growth rate of average wages slowed from 2.6% to 2.5%. Against the background of the slowdown in wage growth, inflation did not rise, but remained the same, which finally killed any hope that the Bank of England will be able to raise the refinancing rate, at least in the foreseeable future. Well, the pound finished off the data on retail sales, the growth rate of which slowed from 4.1% to 2.9%. So in the UK, wages and retail sales are falling, and inflation remains unchanged, and in such circumstances, to talk about the return on investment is quite stupid.

The single European currency was able to fully recover the losses of the beginning of the week, and even slightly improve its position due to the fact that there was quite little data. In fact, we are talking only about inflation, which, as expected, rose from 1.9% to 2.0%.

However, the US data were extremely ambiguous. On the one hand, the growth rate of retail sales accelerated from 6.5% to 6.6%, but commercial inventories increased by 0.4%. And they have been growing for almost half a year. At the same time, the growth rate of industrial production accelerated from 3.2% to 3.8%. It turns out that sales and production are growing, but stocks are growing much faster than consumers have time to buy all the goods. So the risks of the crisis of overproduction will not go away, but rather only increase. Also, the number of issued construction permits decreased by 2.2%, and started construction by 12.3%. The total number of applications for unemployment benefits remained unchanged. However, this was due to a reduction in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits from 215 thousand to 207 thousand, while the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits increased from 1,743 thousand to 1,751 thousand.

In order to understand how events can develop this week, it is worth looking at the forecasts for US statistics, especially since it is rather difficult to start from the unpredictability of Donald Trump. For example, home sales in the secondary market may increase by 0.5%, but sales of new homes are expected to decline by 2.8%. Preliminary data on business activity indices should show their invariance. The number of applications for unemployment benefits should be reduced by 17 thousand. But most importantly, preliminary GDP data for the second quarter could show a significant acceleration in economic growth. So the expectations are quite optimistic.

However, the main event of the week will be the ECB meeting on monetary policy, followed by a press conference of Mario Draghi. After the previous meeting, investors are concerned about the possible extension of the quantitative easing program after December. Many fear that a shift in priorities from inflation to trade war will be an occasion for further extension of the quantitative easing program. So Mario Draghi will be waiting for concrete answers, and if he firmly declares that under any circumstances in December the ECB will not decide to extend the program of quantitative easing, the single European currency will rapidly begin to grow. Any reservations about risks and the like essentially leave the question open, and this will be perceived as preparing the public for the next extension of the quantitative easing program, and then the dollar will continue its victorious procession. In Europe, of course, preliminary data on business activity indices are still expected, which should show a slight decline, as well as data on consumer lending, the growth rate of which should accelerate slightly.

In all fairness, it should be noted that investors believe that the ECB will not extend the program of quantitative easing, and this is already embedded in the value of the single European currency. So if Mario Draghi is firm, the euro will finish the week at 1.1775. But the head of the ECB is characterized by the ability to talk a lot about anything, and this will negatively affect the mood of investors, so most likely, we should expect a decline to 1,1625.

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In the UK, almost no data are published, so the pound will have to follow the single European currency, and if Mario Draghi pleases investors, it will be able to gain a foothold in 1.3250. Otherwise, it is much more likely that the pound will have to drop to 1.3025.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Trump does not need a strong dollar

US President Donald Trump became the main newsmaker of the foreign exchange market. His statements, intentions and threats affect the mood of traders and determine the dynamics of many currency pairs.

And now the US currency is under pressure of its criticism concerning the Fed's actions. Although Trump is quite consistently defending the position of the "cheap dollar", if we recall his statements in the election period. Simply now, his criticism sounded at the most inappropriate moment for the dollar bulls – when the market finally came to some confidence in a four-fold increase in the interest rate this year. The dollar began a full-scale offensive to the basket of major currencies, but was "shot down on the rise" by an unexpected attack of the US President.

In general, against the background of the "diplomatic" Democrat Barack Obama, the Republican Donald Trump still shocks the markets with his directness and protectionism. Here it is worth recalling the case when in the summer of 2015 the AFP news Agency reported that Obama during the closed (!) talks with the leaders of The G-7 expressed concern over the high dollar. In this case, the agency referred to an anonymous source in the diplomatic circles of France. Despite the questionable reliability of this information and the non-publicity of the phrase itself (if it was even uttered), the White house then reacted instantly. The official website of the US President published a release, in which it was repeatedly stated that the head of state does not interfere in the issues of the foreign exchange market.

In this context, Trump looks like a real antipode of Obama. "It is necessary to weaken the dollar" – this is the loudest statement (on the part of the foreign exchange market), which was said by Donald Trump in an interview with an American publication in May 2015. At that time, this statement was not accepted by the market – too illusory was his victory. But now this position should be considered seriously, especially against the background of the trade war with China and the devaluation of the yuan.

After all, Trump does not say anything new – he just three years ago reasonably believed that an expensive national currency had a negative impact on the country's economy, and especially - in the sphere of exports. I note that in May 2015, the dollar paired with the euro was trading in the range of 1.08-1.11, but this rate even then seemed overstated to Trump. The same can be said about the USD/CNY exchange rate-three years ago, the dollar against the Chinese yuan cost 6.1 – 6.2, while today the price range is completely different-6.7-6.8.

All this suggests that Donald trump will continue to react extremely sharply to the strengthening of the national currency. And since the Federal Reserve is the engine of the dollar growth, it will become the main object of criticism. However, the main question here is how will the Fed react to the voiced position of the US President? On the one hand, the Fed is an independent body that should not follow the opinion of politicians and officials, even of such rank as Trump. On the other hand, the Republican Jerome Powell – protege of the incumbent president, and not only in the current composition of the Fed – Donald Trump also made patronage and Vice-President Randal Quarles. By the way, both officials come from a large investment and consulting firm "the Carlyle Group".

However, according to most currency strategists, the Fed "will not take under the visor", changing the course of the monetary policy. Even the rhetoric of the Fed's members certainly will not change - the regulator's members will demonstrate independence from the White House. But still, the fourth rate hike was again in question-after Trump's statement, the probability of this step slightly decreased – from 64% to 55%.

The fact is that almost all the members of the Federal Reserve in their speeches are hinting at "one or two increases" rates before the end of this year. According to them, everything will depend on the dynamics of key indicators, primarily inflation. This is a fairly standard position, when the regulator leaves "room for maneuver", on the one hand, announcing its actions, but on the other hand – allowing the possibility of an alternative scenario. Therefore, if Trump still has an unofficial pressure on the Fed, the regulator will slow down the pace of tightening monetary policy "under the sauce" uncertain growth in inflation indicators.

And yet, according to most experts, the criticism of the US President will affect the foreign exchange market (rather than the Fed), as traders will react reflexively to any comments from Trump regarding the exchange rate of the dollar. Thus, any more or less large-scale strengthening of the dollar can be interrupted by criticism of the US President, who, unlike his predecessor, does not hesitate to comment on the exchange rate of the national currency.

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From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair on the daily chart broke through the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and entered the Kumo cloud. The next resistance level is at 1.1785 – this is the top line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1. If the price is fixed above this level, the next destination will be the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, which corresponds to the price of 1.1960. However, it is too early to talk about this altitude– at least until the July meeting of the ECB, which will be held this Thursday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com