Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 8, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

It is said that 150,000 Bitcoins from Mt. The Gox may hit the market on October 15. However, a number of factors suggest that this is unlikely given past events. In 2011-2013, Mt. Gox lost 850,000 BTC in the biggest hacker attack in Bitcoin history.

However, there are many hurdles that must be overcome before a refund can be made. The process has been consistently delayed since 2019, and returns are unlikely to happen any time soon.

On June 30, the trustee of Mt. Gox posted a statement on the official website of Mtgox.com, where it said the Tokyo District Court had extended the deadline to October 15. Based on this document, some investors have suggested that it could cause a movement of 150,000 BTC, potentially shaking the market.

However, there are two key reasons why the trustee would not want to transfer Bitcoin anytime soon. First, the extension concerns the submission of a rehabilitation plan, not the return of BTC. Simply put, October 15 sets the trustee to present the plan, not to reimburse the investors. Second, the trustee has continuously requested an extension over the past year. An identical statement was issued in March 2020 and April 2019, and the deadlines were extended.

October 15 is not an actual reimbursement deadline for users, and the trustee has delayed this process several times in the past. Based on these two factors, it's safe to assume that 150,000 BTC from Mt. The Gox trustee will not hit the markets in the short term.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the local low made at the level of $10,495 and retraced 50% of the last spike down. Nevertheless, the supply side had capped the bounce around the level of $10,623 and currently the market is again moving downward. The next technical support is seen at the level of $10,430 and $10,344. If the yesterday's low is violated, then the sell-off might accelerate again. The level of $10,758 is now the local high and it is the key level for bulls and the level of $10,093 is the key level for bears.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,471

WR2 - $11,178

WR1 - $10,858

Weekly Pivot - $10,602

WS1 - $10,300

WS2 - $10,024

WS3 - $9,715

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 8, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The amount of computing power in the Ethereum network is currently at the level of the new ATH. According to Glassnode, on October 6 the hashrate on the Ethereum network reached a record level of over 250 TH / s. This means an increase of 80% from the beginning of the year. According to Glassnode, the boom in decentralized finance (DeFi) contributed mainly to the growth of hashrate.

Interestingly, data from the F2Pool mining pool shows that mining Ethereum (ETH) is currently up to three times more profitable than Bitcoin (BTC).

Hashrate is a key metric in determining blockchain security. It measures the computing power of the network. The last time Ethereum hashrate was close to ATH in August 2018, when the metric reached 246 TH / s.

The rapid growth of DeFi, coupled with the rapid growth of stablecoins, has pushed Ethereum's transaction fees to record levels. Data from Glassnode shows that Ethereum miners in September earned $ 166 million from transaction fees alone. BTC miners over the same period of time made only $ 26 million.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the ETH/USD pair made a Pin Bar candlestick at the end of the recent down wave, it bounced towards the level of $345.20, but did not make it and start to consolidate in a narrow range. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95. The momentum remains negative and might accelerate down if the sell-off starts.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $403.75

WR2 - $387.38

WR1 - $368.10

Weekly Pivot - $351.05

WS1 - $333.15

WS2 - $315.51

WS3 - $296.13

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 8. COT reports. Irish minister is not a hindrance to pound buyers who are

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday's statements from the Irish Foreign Minister in regards to the Brexit trade deal put pressure on the British pound, but the bulls managed to protect support at 1.2863, creating a good signal from it in order to enter long positions. Let's figure it out. To begin with, let's recall selling from 1.2929 in the morning, where I advised you to open short positions when the pair returns to this range. Everything happened exactly point to point. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears waited until resistance was updated at 1.2929 and then they actively returned to the market, forming some pretty beautiful entry points. As a result, the first wave of downward movement brought more than 70 points of profit. Then, I paid attention to buying from the1.2863 in my afternoon forecast, but under the condition: "... I recommend waiting for a breakout of this range, the unsuccessful movement of the pair down, and only then, on returning and settling above 1.2863, perhaps closer to the second half of the US session...". And so it happened, and I marked the entry point for buy positions on the hourly chart. The upward movement was around 50 points, as a result of which the bulls managed to return to 1.2929.

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Now an important task for the pound buyers is to break through and settle above the resistance of 1.2929, only after that will it be possible to speak of an advantage, which forms an additional entry point into long positions with the main goal of updating this week's high at 1.3001, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.3089 area will be a distant goal. If the pair falls in the first half of the day, the bulls will have to think about protecting support at 1.2863, which has already been tested many times. Forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open long positions while expecting the pound to recover to the resistance area of 1.2929. If buyers of the pound are not active in the support area of 1.2863, then it is best not to rush to buy, but to wait until a larger low at 1.2807 has been updated, where it is best to open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on a 30-40 point correction within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 29 recorded a sharp rise in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which affected the net position and led to its larger negative value. This once again confirms the desire of traders to build up short positions with any growth in the level, counting on uncertainty over Brexit and the prospects for the recovery of the British economy. The pressure on the pound will gradually increase as the second wave of coronavirus spreads. Short non-commercial positions increased from 40,523 to 51,961 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 43,487 to 39,216. As a result, the non-commercial net position became negative and reached -12,745, against 2,964 a week earlier, which indicates that control over the market is gradually returning to large sellers.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound have a simple goal. They need to pull down GBP/USD to the area below the 1.2863 level in order to maintain control of the market. The upside test of this area forms a good entry point for short positions. In this case, the 1.2807 area will be the nearest target for the bears, a breakdown of which will increase pressure on the pound, which will open a direct road to the low of 1.2749, where I recommend taking profits. But an equally important task is to protect resistance at 1.2929, which is where trade is currently taking place. You can sell the pound from this level, but only if a false breakout is formed with the main goal of returning to support at 1.2863. If bears are not active in this range, and it is likely, then it is best to postpone sell positions until a high of 1.3001 has been updated, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty with the succeeding direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2945 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2865 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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Uncertainty in the market is growing due to the rally in the US stock market

The currency market is quite calm while the US stock market is optimistic about the prospects for new large-scale measures to stimulate the US economy as well as give assistance to its citizens.

Investors are convinced that whoever wins the presidential elections, either D. Trump or J. Biden, will be forced to take additional stimulating measures for the economy, which will be beneficial to the growth of the value of companies' shares. This is the factor that supports the markets, which does not allow the dollar to strengthen.

Yesterday's trading results clearly indicate that with all the optimism in the US, the currency market is showing uncertainty about the development of events before the election on November 3. Moreover, the issue regarding Trump's COVID-19 appears to have disappeared after the media reported that it hasn't worsened in the past 24 hours. This caused the market to plunge into a state of uncertainty. In addition, the market behavior can be explained by the fact that Trump's call for gradual adoption of incentive measures will increase demand for company shares, which will simultaneously put pressure on the dollar. But since it is not clear when all this will start, we have to observe the sideways dynamics of the pairs where the US currency is present in the market.

Today, our attention will be focused on speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey, ECB representatives Schnabel, Mersch and de Guindos, Swiss Central Bank Governor Jordan and BoC's board member Macklem. The market will carefully study the ECB's monetary policy statement. Of course, the publication of data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the past week will also attract his attention. It is expected that their number will reach the level of 820,000. In the late evening at 18.25 Universal time, we can expect a speech by Fed's member Barkin.

Assessing the emerging outlook in the markets, we believe that the overall dynamics in the currency market will continue. Moreover, it is unlikely that a decision can be made by the Congress on the introduction of new incentive measures before November 3, since the disagreement between the rivals in the presidential election is huge, which means that the uncertainty factor will force investors to show low activity.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in a narrow range of 1.1725-1.1810. If it breaks the level of 1.1780, it will further rise to 1.1810.

The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure on a wave of rising crude oil prices. If the price declines below the level of 1.3245, we can expect it to further decline 1.3200.

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EUR/USD: New Breakout Attempt

EUR/USD stands higher at 1.1773 level and it could challenge the immediate resistance of 1.18 soon. The pair is trapped between 1.17 and 1.18 psychological levels, a breakout from this range should bring a fresh trading opportunity, signal.

Unfortunately, the FOMC Meeting Minutes failed to bring a clear direction. Today, the German Trade Balance dropped from 18.0B to 15.7B, much below the 17.1B estimate. The US Unemployment Claims are expected around 820K in the former week, a deeper drop could boost the dollar.

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The pair continues to stay near the R1 (1.1785) and the second warning line (wl2) of the descending pitchfork. A valid breakout above these obstacles followed by a bullish closure above 1.18 should confirm a further growth towards 1.2 psychological level.

Anything could happen as long as EUR/USD is located under the near-term resistance levels. A false breakout, bearish engulfing, or a failure to reach the immediate obstacles should send the price down.

  • EUR/USD Trading Tips

Buy EUR/USD if the price closes above 1.1807 former high. The 1.2 psychological level could be taken as a target.

Sell a bearish closure below 1.17 - 1.1694 area. The next major downside target stands at the 1.1495 level.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on October 8? Plan for opening and closing trades on Thursday

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to correct last Thursday night against the downward movement that happened a couple of days ago. We have already said that, from our point of view, the fall was unreasonable, since US President Donald Trump's refusal to negotiate with the Democrats on a new aid package for the American economy is a bearish factor for the dollar, not a bullish one. Nevertheless, the dollar rose in price, and in the next two days traders were strenuously correcting their mistake. And now we can say that the error has been corrected, and the price has returned to its original positions. The only problem is that the euro/dollar pair managed to settle below the upward trend line and it broke the upward trend. Formally, of course, we can once again rebuild the trend line so that the last cycle of the downward trend can enterit. However, you cannot constantly rebuild trend lines, otherwise they will lose all meaning. Moreover, we are not even certain if the euro will continue to grow, although its positions look much more convincing than those of the dollar. Thus, we still expect a new round of the downward movement and wait for a downward reversal of the MACD indicator.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains the same. As we expected, traders did not react to yesterday's publication of the Federal Reserve minutes. This happens almost every time, because it does not provide new information. The Fed minutes is just a summary of the results of the last meeting, that's all. As for today, there are few planned events. We can only take note of European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos' speech, who from time to time makes important statements, as well as the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. However, now we can already assume that the market will not react to any of these events either. Therefore, technical factors will come first today. Even those that generally influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair are left with little. We continue to advise traders to keep track of any news from the White House and from Trump personally. Markets do not respond well to any election-related news, but you should not miss important messages. Take note that, in general, the fundamental background is currently negative for the dollar. Traders and investors are wary of large and long-term buy positions on the US currency due to the sheer uncertainty surrounding America, its future and the future of its economy. Therefore, in general, we do not expect the dollar to sharply grow in the coming month.

Possible scenarios for October 8:

1) Buying the EUR/USD pair has ceased to be relevant at the moment since the price settled below the rising trend line. Now, in order to consider them again, you need to wait for a new upward trend or some strong buy signals, such as a rebound from the 1.1696 level. You can only consider new long positions in this case.

2) Sell positions became available for consideration, after the trend changed to a downward one. Earlier, we advised novice traders to wait for an upward correction and its completion. Today 50% of this condition has been fulfilled, we only need to wait for a signal from the MACD to sell and open short positions while aiming for support levels of 1.1731 and 1.1700. Don't forget about placing Stop Loss orders - they can be placed above the last high of 1.1782.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Fed minutes and Trump's anti-China rhetoric

The minutes of the last fed meeting published yesterday were virtually ignored by the market. The US dollar index remained at the same position together with the key US dollar pairs. But during the Asian session on Thursday, there was some volatility wherein investors reacted to another anti-Chinese attack by Donald trump. However, it is not entirely correct to talk about volatility in this case, since in fact currency pairs showed weak price fluctuations of several dozen points. But against the background of General price stagnation, these bursts of activity can be mistaken for volatility.

So, let's start with the fed's "minutes". In General, they were not in favor of the dollar, although the main theses of this document were already voiced by Jerome Powell during the final press conference and subsequent speeches. There's still some intrigue on the eve of the publication of the Protocol. If we will remember, there was a certain split at the September meeting in the camp of the American regulator. Not all members of the Federal reserve agreed with the key phrase of the accompanying statement, which looks like this: "rates near zero will be maintained until labor market conditions are consistent with full employment and annual inflation accelerates to the two percent target level and aims for a moderate excess of this mark."

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Two fed members, Robert Kaplan and Neil Kashkari, disagreed with this statement as their positions were directly opposite. Kaplan insisted that the Fed should maintain a "more flexible approach" to raising interest rates. He opposed the designation of a specific leading indication. While Neil Kashkari on the contrary, called for "guaranteed" to maintain the current level of rates until core inflation shows a steady trend above the two percent target level. The market listened to Kaplan, interpreting signs of a split in the fed camp in favor of the US currency. The dollar briefly went up although it might just as well have fallen if traders had focused on Kashkari's opinion.

The minutes of this meeting published yesterday showed that there are no grounds for hawkish conclusions and the position of Robert Kaplan is "a voice crying in the desert". According to the text of the document, the majority of the regulator's members agreed that rates should be kept near zero until the labor market reaches maximum employment, and inflation does not reach the target two percent level and will exceed the specified level for some time. There is no question of any "flexibility" because of that. Moreover, following the results of the September meeting, the "fed points" (the fed members own forecasts) were published, according to which the regulator will start considering the issue of raising the rate no earlier than 2023 (some of them allowed 2024). The General consensus is that the US economy will recover rather slowly from the recession caused by the coronavirus crisis. Also, the fed members agreed that the regulator will continue to buy Treasury bonds and mortgage – backed bonds (the total amount is more than $ 120 billion per month). At the same time, some members of the Committee (unfortunately, their number is not given) made it clear that they allow changes or increases in the volume of bond purchases in the foreseeable future.

In other words, the Federal reserve has maintained its dovish position: the interest rate will remain at the current level until at least 2023 (the 2024 option is not excluded), and the bond purchase program can only be changed in the direction of increasing its volume. At the same time, the idea of a "flexible approach" was not discussed by the fed members and they did not support it.

After the publication of minutes of the meeting, the dollar was under background pressure. This pressure increased during the Asian session on Thursday, when Donald trump once again attacked China with criticism. In his video message, the US President again accused the Chinese authorities of being negligent about the emergence of the new virus and allowing it to spread around the world, including the United States. The head of the White house said that COVID-19 is China's mistake "and Beijing will pay a big price for its spread."

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It's worth noting here that trump and his supporters have repeatedly accused Beijing of failing to warn the world about the severity and scale of the coronavirus outbreak. According to polls, the "base electorate" of the current President mostly supports this position. Therefore, in this case, trump's anti-Chinese rhetoric must be viewed through the prism of the upcoming presidential election. According to the latest data, Joe Biden after the recent debate significantly increased the gap from the Republican, while the election itself is less than a month away. Given this fact, it is not surprising that trump is trying to make up for lost percentage points with his statements including with the help of anti-Chinese rhetoric. In this case, the market's reaction was restrained. During the election campaign, such statements are part of the campaign.

Thus, the Fed Protocol and Donald Trump put some pressure on the greenback. At the same time, these fundamental factors could not change the situation as a whole – the main currency pairs actually remained in the same positions. If we talk directly about the EUR/USD currency pair, there was a slight increase after the decline to the level of 1.1724. As of this moment, the upward direction trend has faded again, while buyers were unable to leave the area of the 17th figure. In my opinion, the above fundamental factors will have a limited impact. Today, traders will switch to the current news stream. Two events can be distinguished: the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting and the release of data on the US labor market (the number of applications for unemployment benefits). Since the pair could not even impulsively overcome the resistance level of 1.1770 (the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart), from the current positions, we can consider a short with a target at 1.1710 (the Tenkan-sen line on the same timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil prices rose from bottom

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The raging Hurricane Delta near the coast of the United States and stimulating support for the US economy in the amount of $2.2 trillion caused the growth of oil prices.

Last week, oil prices plunged to a three-month bottom, but did not stay there for long.

On Tuesday, negotiations were again held between the Democrats and the US Treasury on a new economic "package". It includes $600 which is a monthly unemployment benefit, a direct one-time payment in the amount of $1,200 to taxpayers, tax holidays for corporations, and subsidies to homeowners to keep their tenants from being thrown out onto the street.

The Democrats initially offered a $3.4 trillion stimulus. Whether financial support will be realized is not clear. However, these promises support oil prices.

Meanwhile, hurricanes are raging again in the Gulf of Mexico, which provides nearly a fifth of American oil production. Due to the danger, the largest oil-producing companies stop their work and evacuate the personnel, as hurricane Delta is gaining momentum.

Its strength is terrible, the wind reaches a speed of 215 km/h. According to forecasts of the US National Hurricane Watching Center, closer to Friday Delta will reach the coast and hit the areas where almost 50% of American oil refining is concentrated.

In addition, oil supplies in Norway will be cut with a total capacity of 330,000 barrels per day due to striking employees. In general oil production in the country fell by 8%.

However, on Wednesday, oil futures quotes rose.

Brent crude rose by 1.74% to trade at $41.91 per barrel. WTI crude grew by 2.11% to settle at $39.81 per barrel.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.20% as well to hit $93,930.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 8, 2020

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Support at 135.74 was easily broken. GBP/JPU is ready to push to new highs above 137.45 towards resistance at 138.34. A break above the former peak at 142.72 is expected.

Only an unexpected break below support at 135.98 will question our bullish outlook and call for more downside pressure to 134.98, but the underlying uptrend will not be invalidated.

R3: 138.09

R2: 137.78

R1: 137.40

Pivot: 137.13

S1: 136.88

S2: 136.78

S3: 136.45

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.27 and we will raise our stop to 136.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 8 - 2020

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EUR/JPY stopped at the 50% corrective target at 123.85 and started a new impulsive wave higher to test the resistance-line from the 127.02 high. Once this resistance-line is broken, EUR/JPY may gain upside momentum for the next push higher to 126.12 and ultimately above the former peak at 127.02.

Support is now seen at 124.55 and the in the 124.24 -124.34 area, which may protect the downside for the final break above the resistance-line near 124.75.

R3: 125.45

R2: 125.25

R1: 125.04

Pivot: 124.75

S1: 124.55

S2: 124.34

S3. 124.24

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.10 and we will raise our stop to 123.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 8, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro did not react in any way to US President Donald Trump's statement about the need for lawmakers to increase sector assistance to air carriers and individuals during the second wave of coronavirus, as well as to the Federal Reserve's minutes, which spoke of the need for state stimulation. In practice, these events did not mean anything to the markets, since the Democrats have already declared that they are against the dispersion of funds across sectors and insist on large-scale funding worth 2.2 trillion. dollars, and the minutes only covertly supported this concept.

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The euro is consolidating at the signal level of 1.1754, which has practically lost its role as a signal level and has become a common level (it turns red). Settling under it will become a condition for the euro to decline further, the first target of this scenario will be the 1.1650 level, followed by 1.1550. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is reflected downward from the border of the growth territory for the second time.

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The price remains above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, but the Marlin signal line also reverses from the border of the growth territory. Moving the price under the MACD line, below 1.1705, will fix the condition for pulling down the euro even further.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on October 8, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar gained 37 points yesterday, taking advantage of the temporary weakness in the US dollar. The dollar index dropped 0.21%, while AUD/USD added 37 points.

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The overall downward situation for the aussie has not changed on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is turning down, the blue MACD line is turning down, and the red balance line is also pointing down. The first target of the movement is 0.7055, then 0.6960 is the support of the embedded price channel line.

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But in order for the price to confidently decline, it needs to gain a foothold under the MACD line on a four-hour scale, below 0.7103, which it could not do yesterday. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning down, creating a second chance for the price to develop a bearish offensive.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on October 8, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen was able to overcome the resistance of two indicator lines at once - balance and MACD, and today it continues to rise above them. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in the zone of positive values, the nearest target at 106.34 is open, we are waiting for the moment we overcome this resistance - the embedded price channel line, and for the price to rise to the 106.96 level - to the high of August 28.

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The price continues to steadily grow above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is rising in the zone where bulls are in control. We are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to grow further. Today's report on the balance of payments for the month of August, which showed growth from 0.96 trillion yen to 1.65 trillion yen, provides optimism for Japanese investors.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on October 8. COT report. Bailey's bearish rhetoric could accelerate the pound's

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair left the ascending channel on October 7, and also settled below the critical Kijun-sen line. The only thing that the bears have not managed to do so far is to take the pair below the Senkou Span B line. And so sellers made the first significant step towards a new trend, but so far we can not confirm it. The key moment is when the price rebounds from the 1.3000 level, which we consider to be the most important. The current value of the Senkou Span B line - 1.2825 - is also very important, since earlier the price rebounded off it several times. Consequently, it can rebound this time too. In this case, the pair may generally go sideways between the levels of 1.2825 and 1.3000.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, which is a sign of the beginning of a downward movement on the hourly timeframe. The main resistance for the declining movement is now the Senkou Span B line at 1.2825. Without overcoming it, there will be no further downward hike.

COT report

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The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound showed that non-commercial traders started to open high-volume sell contracts. In total, 12,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) were opened from September 23-29. At the same time, the "non-commercial" group of traders also closed around 4,000 Buy-contracts (longs). That is, the net position for this category of traders suddenly decreased by 16,000, which is a lot for the pound, given that there are about 100,000 contracts open at this time. The sentiment of non-commercial traders has become much more bearish. However, the pound only rose in price from September 23-29. It did not grow much, only 140 points, and continues to move up, very uncertainly if I may add. We tend to think that the pound will resume falling in the near future (based on the latest COT reports). As for the indicators, they do not show anything extraordinary now, according to the COT reports. They do not signal a possible global reversal of the pair. Only that non-commercial traders believe more in the dollar's growth rather than the pound (lower indicator).

No major macroeconomic reports from the UK or America on Wednesday, October 7. We do not even take into account the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting, since it does not contain any fundamentally new information. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell already announced all the information that markets needed, as he has spoken six times over the past three weeks. We clearly know that the Fed is not going to lower the key rate below 0%, and that economic recovery will slow down. Powell has also reiterated that the prospects for the economy will depend on the success in the fight against the epidemic. In turn, the Bank of England admits a decrease in the rate to the negative zone, and all the events in Great Britain make it possible to assume that the pound will fall further. This forecast can only be softened by the conclusion of a trade deal, however, this will probably have to wait at least a month. Accordingly, the pair will face either a flat or the pound will fall. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak today, who may inform the markets something new about the central bank's intentions to change the parameters of monetary policy by the end of 2020.

We have two trading ideas for October 8:

1) Buyers have lost the initiative. Therefore, you can formally consider long positions while aiming for the resistance area of 1.3000-1.3024, if the price returns to the area above the critical line (1.2918). However, we advise you to be extremely cautious when doing this. Take Profit in this case will be up to 70 points.

2) Sellers managed to overcome the Kijun-sen line yesterday, but now they also need to overcome the Senkou Span B line (1.2825). Only in this case will it be possible to resume trading downward while aiming for the support level at 1.2658. Take Profit in this case can range from 70 to 100 points. You can also try to sell the pair in case the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line (1.2918) while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.2825).

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 8. COT report. Traders were wrong, but they corrected their mistake

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair settled below the upward trend line on the hourly timeframe on October 7, however, it could not continue to move down, and it almost immediately turned back up, so at the moment it is absolutely unclear whether the upward trend is broken. Moreover, the price crossed both the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Thus, we tend to think that traders simply traded in the wrong direction yesterday, but today they realized this, which led to a movement in the opposite direction. Unfortunately, this does not in any way facilitate the current technical picture. The only thing that can be emphasized is that the price could not settle below the support area of 1.1700-1.1724, therefore, it is not advisable to trade for a fall.

EUR/USD 15M

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The higher linear regression channel turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, while the lower one turned to the upside. This suggests that the upward movement may resume in the short term. Actually, we came to approximately the same conclusions when analyzing the hourly timeframe.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair grew by around 30 or 40 points during the last reporting week (September 23-29). We can't even call it growth, just common market noise. The previous Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that non-commercial traders opened 15,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and almost 6,000 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for this group of traders increased by around 9,000. The new report clearly reflects what is currently happening in the foreign exchange market. Professional traders closed 4,500 contracts for buy positions on the euro and 3,300 contracts for sell positions during the reporting week. That is, the net position for the "non-commercial" group has decreased by around a thousand contracts, which means that the mood of large traders has become a little more bearish. However, these are not changes that can be acknowledged as global. Therefore, we conclude that the situation has not changed dramatically. The EUR/USD pair generally stood in one place for the next three trading days (after September 29). Therefore, the next COT report may also show minimal changes in the mood of professional traders. Looking at the chart showing the net positions of all categories of traders, we can conclude that a major downward reversal is brewing for the euro. Usually, when the green and red lines are far away from each other, it is the harbingers of a global reversal.

No important macroeconomic reports on Wednesday, October 7. But, as usual, there was a huge amount of news. All of them have been discussed in detail in the fundamental articles of this site. We would only like to draw your attention to the fact that US President Donald Trump's decision from the day before yesterday, in regards to his intention to break off negotiations with the Democrats on a new stimulus package for the American economy, is more likely a negative factor for the dollar than a positive one. However, the US dollar rose in price immediately after this was announced, it was rather illogical. The dollar was already falling yesterday, although there was no reason for this during the day. Therefore, we believe that traders simply did not quite correctly react to Trump's announcement, and then they rushed to correct the situation in the morning. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to speak in the European Union today. We can also expect a report from the United States on applications for unemployment benefits, which is considered quite accurate in displaying real unemployment in the country.

We have two trading ideas for October 8:

1) It is much more difficult to predict the pair's behavior now since trades of the previous days ruined the technical picture. Buyers can continue to trade the pair upward with the targets at the resistance levels of 1.1786 and 1.1855, but only in small lots and with extreme caution, since the upward trend line has been broken. Long positions will be canceled if the price drops below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines again. Take Profit in this case will be from 20 to 80 points.

2) Bears made an attempt to reverse the upward trend yesterday, but only managed 50% of the task. They still need to take the pair below the Kijun-sen (1.1752) and Senkou Span B (1.1690) lines. In this case, we recommend opening new short positions while aiming for 1.1631. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 50 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 8. Reuters and Bloomberg believe in signing an agreement between London and Brussels.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -18.2576

The British pound fell below the moving average line during the third trading day of the week, showing a low correlation with the euro/dollar pair. Thus, the most important point that we can not pass by is the rebound from the Murray level of "5/8" - 1.3000. We have repeatedly stated that this level is psychologically important, moreover, the price has already rebounded from it on September 16, which means that it is also strong. Thus, the pound sterling has fixed below the moving average and can now continue its decline. Unfortunately, the fundamental background from the US and the UK remains equally negative. In the article on the euro/dollar, we looked at the background from overseas. However, the background from America for the EUR/USD pair is negative, and the EU is neutral. Then for the GBP/USD pair, the background of America is negative, and from the UK are also negative. Therefore, the analysis of this pair is much more complex.

Meanwhile, in the UK, the situation continues to deteriorate. We are referring to the epidemiological situation. For four days in a row, at least 13 thousand cases of the disease are recorded in the country. And this is despite the fact that Boris Johnson said a couple of weeks ago that the second "wave" had begun in the country, introduced new restrictive measures for the population, as well as new, increased fines for non-compliance. As you can see, these measures did not bring any special results, and the British government may face a new round of criticism. We have already said that the political ratings of Boris Johnson continue to decline, however, the ratings of Keir Starmer (the leader of the Labor Party) continue to grow. We have already repeatedly listed the entire list of Johnson's defeats and another record may be added to it in the near future. Namely, the failure of the fight against the second "wave" of the pandemic. The UK health system "breathed its last" when 5-6 thousand diseases were registered daily in the country, now for the fourth day in a row – at least 13 thousand. At the same time, Boris Johnson is not going to introduce a new "hard" quarantine, as he believes that it will have a very negative impact on the economy of the Kingdom. I wonder why the Prime Minister doesn't care how the economy will be affected by the lack of a trade deal with the EU? Or a breach of the Brexit agreement with the EU? However, doctors and scientists are almost sure that a new "lockdown" can not be avoided. The problem is that with the cold snap, the number of people who get sick will only increase, even if they get sick with "normal" flu, SARS, colds, and seasonal viruses. It's still a burden on the healthcare system. Government adviser Professor John Edmunds believes that total quarantine should be introduced now, otherwise it may be too late later.

Well, Boris Johnson, instead of effectively leading the country and countering the pandemic, decided to take up a favorite pastime of Donald Trump called "stories about how everything will be fine... then..." Johnson said on Tuesday that after the COVID-2019 pandemic, he and his government will transform the country, build new homes, improve education and boost the "green economy". Where will all the funds come from if the UK economy loses tens of billions of dollars from year to year due to the still incomplete Brexit, the economy lost 20% of GDP in the second quarter alone, the economy will lose about 170 billion dollars annually starting in 2021 due to the break in relations with the EU (even if a trade agreement is still signed), and it is not known how much it will lose due to the second and all subsequent waves of "coronavirus". However, Johnson does exactly what the rulers do not like and why they are changed – he says a lot and does little. Already, some British publications are leaking information that Boris Johnson may be replaced by the Conservative Party. The name of Rishi Sunak, who currently holds the post of Finance Minister, is called. For example, Bloomberg reports that Boris Johnson's influence has fallen significantly over the past 10 months, and many party members are dissatisfied with the manner of his rule. Many note Sunak's professional qualities, also stating that he is talented (in 40 years – the Minister of Finance), pleasant, smart, and polite.

However, despite the fact that all the problems of the UK look almost unambiguous, there are also experts whose opinions differ from the general one. For example, experts at Goldman Sachs believe that the pound should be bought and that the British currency will strengthen to 1.3300 before the end of the year. According to the bank's analysts, a trade deal with the EU will be agreed in early November, which will support the pound in the foreign exchange market. It is unclear what is the basis of the bank's analyst for such a conclusion. Moreover, just a few days ago, the pound rose to the level of 1.30, from which only three hundred points to the target level of Goldman Sachs. Absolutely not a long-range goal. They might as well have predicted a 50-point increase. But Reuters reported that the agreement may be signed in mid-November, and the parties are getting closer to a consensus. The agency refers to a source in the EU, who says that "the parties are getting closer and closer to an agreement, despite the fact that the public opinion continues to prevail about the failure of the deal". It is difficult for us to make a conclusion about the veracity of this data. One thing is certain. The pound is very fond of getting more expensive on rumors but falls again almost every time because most of these rumors were not confirmed by anything. From our point of view, the probability of concluding an agreement within the established period (until mid-November) is no more than 10%.

The whole fundamental analysis is complicated now by the fact that investors are afraid to invest in the dollar. Otherwise, the pound would already be around $ 1.22. Macroeconomic statistics are currently ignored, so more attention should still be paid to technical factors. Even taking into account all the problems of America, the strengthening of the US dollar now looks much more preferable.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 109 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, October 8, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2806 and 1.3024. A new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal about a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2878

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3000

R3 – 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair settled below the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open short positions with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2756 as soon as the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.3000 and 1.3062 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 8. Trump is already 16% behind Biden and still considers himself the winner of future

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 66.9393

For the EUR/USD pair, the third trading day of the week was again calm. The pair once again corrected to the moving average line and again failed to overcome it. Thus, the upward movement resumed once again, which means that the bulls have difficulty, but still hold the initiative in their hands. This also means that the European currency continues to strengthen against the US dollar. Despite the fact that there is no outright flat for the pair at this time, we still tend to believe that the pair has been trading as close to the flat as possible in the last 3 months. If you look at the senior chart, it becomes immediately clear what we are talking about. The trading range in the last 2.5 months is strictly between the levels of 1.1600 and 1.1200. At the same time, the pair approached the upper and lower borders of this channel just a couple of times. Basically, all trades are held between the levels of $ 1.17 and $ 1.19. What is it if not a flat? And the "flat" movement, in our view, is caused by the maximum degree of uncertainty associated with the future of America and the American economy. If a few months ago we wrote about the "four types of crises" that the United States faced, which caused the dollar to fall by 13 cents, now these topics have been worked out, and every day we receive news from overseas that make the future of the country and its currency as incomprehensible as possible.

For example, the behavior of Donald Trump and his statements. To be honest, we believe that Trump will go down in history not just as one of the presidents of the United States, but indeed as the most odious president. Perhaps no one has been associated with so much news, so many rumors, so much gossip, scandals, lies, conflicts, and confrontations, as with Trump. Just over the past 2 weeks, the US President has managed to participate in a debate with his main opponent Biden, completely fail them (as indicated by approval ratings), however, he declares that he won the debate. Then he gets infected with the "coronavirus". Sow a whole lot of rumors that he was infected with COVID-2019 even before the debate took place. Infect several of his aides and members of the White House. Get to the hospital and ride around the hospital to wave to his fans. Get discharged from the hospital and declare that "coronavirus – no worse than the flu". Call on Americans not to be afraid of COVID-2019 and make appropriate posts on Twitter and Facebook, thus, run into another ban from social networks as "misleading about COVID". He also wrote 20 dozen other messages urging Americans to vote for him and not vote for a Democrat. Then he completely cancels negotiations with the Democrats on a new economic aid package. And this is a list of Trump-related news that came to mind without thinking for a long time. Naturally, all investors and traders hold their heads from such a volume of information, and simply do not know what to do with the US currency at all. Moreover, the election is less than a month away, and a sick Donald Trump has returned to the White House, and it is completely unclear when he will recover and how many people he will infect while he is in his administration. Or will all White House employees wear gas masks and chemical protection suits?

Moreover, Trump called on Joe Biden to hold the second and third rounds of TV debates despite the fact that he is infected with the "coronavirus". Joe Biden has already spoken out about this and refused to hold a debate if Trump is still infected with "coronavirus". Nancy Pelosi, one of Trump's main opponents and the speaker of the Lower House of the US Congress, also spoke out on this issue. According to her, "the first round of TV debates was enough with the voice". "I don't think Joe Biden should honor a debate with a president who has no obligation to speak out about facts, evidence, data and demeans the position he holds," the Speaker of the House of Representatives said.

Meanwhile, despite Trump's high-profile statements and his confidence in winning the presidential election, recent opinion polls suggest that Joe Biden has further increased the margin of victory. According to the latest CNN poll, about 57% of voters are ready to vote for Biden and only 41% - for Trump. Thus, firstly, the information that Trump allegedly reduced the gap in political ratings, as we said, is fake, and secondly, now Biden has further increased the gap. Voters support the Democrats in almost all areas of government. On "coronavirus", it is supported by 59%, in the field of health – 58%, in racial issues – 62%, in the issue of appointing a new chief justice – 57%, in the fight against crime – 55%. Even on the economic issue, Biden's support is now higher – 50% versus 48% for Trump, although a few months ago this was the only area in which the current president was leading. 66% of American women are ready to vote for Biden. Thus, despite the fact that the victory of a candidate will be determined by "electoral votes" and "disputed" (they are also "wavering") states, such results of opinion polls suggest that Biden will win. To be honest, it's hard to imagine what would happen if Biden will not win.

Well, for the US currency, it doesn't even matter who wins the election. The degree of uncertainty in which the country and its future are located is important to it. And the higher this degree, the less likely the dollar is to grow. Thus, until the elections on November 3, we believe that the US currency will not become more expensive. No one knows what will happen next. A new president is a new policy, so what will happen to America in 2021 is impossible to predict. We also believe that it will be difficult for quotes to leave the $ 1.17 - $ 1.19 channel, which they have now returned to, and even more difficult – the $ 1.16 - $ 1.20 channel. Market participants are just waiting at this time to see how everything will end in the confrontation between Trump and Biden, and only as a result of this will they be ready to build new long-term trading strategies. As for other factors other than political ones, they don't really matter now. We all see that all macroeconomic statistics are ignored, the speeches of Jerome Powell, Steven Mnuchin and others are not perceived by the markets. Even the news about the failure of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans did not put much pressure on the US currency, although in theory, they should have done so.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of October 8 is 60 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1714 and 1.1834. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a new round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1,].1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be located above the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to continue to stay in long positions with a target of 1.1834 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders again if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1719 and 1.1658.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com