GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 21, 2015

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Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was reached. This is where the ongoing bullish swing was initiated.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid SELL entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was initiated.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last month due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

However, a bullish pullback towards 1.5600 was expected to take place shortly after, as suggested in the previous articles.

Our SELL entry which was suggested around 1.5600 got triggered two weeks ago. An early exit should be considered if the current daily candlestick closes above 1.5690 (the upper limit of the consolidation range) .

A better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio may be offered around the price level of 1.5780 if enough bullish pressure is expressed above 1.5690 (the current price level).

Note that fixation below the price zone of 1.5550-1.5500 (mid-line of the consolidation range) is mandatory to pursue towards lower bearish targets at 1.5450 and 1.5350. It confirms the Triple-Top reversal pattern depicted on the chart.

On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.5690 (the upper limit of the consolidation range) hinders this bearish scenario for some time. This probably exposes the breakout projection target at 1.5800 before further bearish decline can be achieved.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 21, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were reached. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick was quite bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish break out above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish projection target remains projected at the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be applied.

Recently, signs of lack of bullish momentum were generated on the chart (Head and Shoulders reversal pattern).

A bearish corrective movement towards the levels of 1.2750 (Breakout Level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep defending the weekly high around the price level of 1.3180.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.3050 is needed to expose the next support level around 1.2910 and then 1.2800 where long-term BUY entries should be considered.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes a strong support.

Stop Loss should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 21, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback towards the level of 1.5550 took place. Temporary bearish break out below the GBP/USD key level at 1.5500 took place on July 5.

Last week, strong bearish pressure was applied to the level of 1.5550 again. It was broken down temporarily until the last week when the weekly bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. This indicates market indecision above the price levels of 1.5500.

However, the previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders further bearish decline and enhances the bullish side of the market at least towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

On the other hand, the current weekly candlestick should be monitored by the end of the current day to determine if the weekly closure persists above 1.5500 or below.

The nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed only if the GBP/USD bears manage to bring the market price below the level of 1.5500 again (low probability).

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Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top, was temporarily broken allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

The level of 1.5500 constitutes a significant KEY level to watch for. It corresponds to the short-term uptrend line depicted on the chart.

However, evident bullish pressure was applied at 1.5450 on August 7. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed by the end of the day.

The nearest supply levels to meet the GBP/USD pair are located around the price levels of 1.5660 (multiple daily highs) and 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

The price reaction should be watched at retesting price levels around 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level). A valid SELL entry can be offered there.

On the other hand, the bearish scenario towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should only be anticipated if the GBP/USD bears manage to push again below 1.5500 successfully (low probability).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 21, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, and July) reflected recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target will be still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will be possible only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached. This can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes as a bullish engulfing one by the end of August.

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After such a long bearish rally, which started around the level of 1.1300, long-term bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (double-top reversal pattern). That is when the EUR/USD bears managed to achieve bearish breakdown of the depicted uptrend line on July 13.

Recently, evident bullish recovery was expressed after hitting the level of 1.0800. Since then, bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1150 and 1.1250 where the backside of the broken uptrend is located.

The H4 chart shows a recent bullish swing being established within an ascending channel. The upper limit of this channel comes to meet the pair around the price level of 1.1300. It also corresponds to 100% Fibonacci Expansion level of the most recent bullish swing.

The market looks overbought as the bulls are pushing above the price level of 1.1250 (backside of the broken DAILY uptrend). Counter-trend SELL entries can be offered at such circumstances.

A valid SELL entry can be offered around 1.1300. S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.1350. T/P levels should be located at 1.1240 and 1.1160.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 21, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.7058 in a low volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe double confirmed upward thrusting bars. According to the H1 chart, we have no demand bars confirmed at the price of 1.7040. That activity made the price drop and create 2-bar revrsal as well, which is now a clear sign that we may expect a downward movement. According to Wyckoff analysis, the price is building a potential strong distribution (selling). The price broke upward trading range and we may expext stronger selling pressure in the next period. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracements. The intraday trend has changed from upward to downward.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6955

R2: 1.6985

R3: 1.7035

Support levels:

S1: 1.6745

S2: 1.6700

S3: 1.6640

Trading recommendations: Watch only for selling. The price successfully rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%. Sell after retracements.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 21, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The US dollar tumbled for the second day as worries concerning growth influenced global stock markets and fueled doubt whether the US Federal Reserve would lift interest rates next month. The Dow plunged 2.1% to 16,990.69, its lowest level since October 2014, the S&P 500 slid 2.1% to 2035.73, wiping out its gains for the year, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.8% to 4877.49. Meanwhile, gold gained 2.2% to $1153 an ounce, while crude oil rebounded 0.8% to $41.14 a barrel. Regarding USD/JPY, the pair broke below previous downside targets at 123.65 (the low of August 19) and 123.47 (the low of July 31) overnight and remains on the downside. The dropping 20- and 50-period intraday moving averages are maintaining the bearish bias. Besides, the intraday RSI stays within the selling area between 50 and 30 lacking upward momentum. As long as 123.65 holds as the key resistance, the pair could sink further to downside targets at 122.35 and 122 (both last seen on July 28).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 122. The pivot point stands at 123.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124 and the second target at 124.25.

Resistance levels: 124 124.25 124.75

Support levels: 122.35 122 121.65

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Gold analysis for August 21 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,168.05. According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in an average volume. I placed diagonal trendline and the price stoped extacly on the trendline. Our Fibonacci retracement 50% is at the price of $1,155.00. Anyway, Gold is still in a bullish trend and we have successful testing of a supply bar at the price of $1,149.00. Intraday and short-term frames are favoring buyers. So watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,154.60

R2: 1,160.00

R3: 1,168.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,138.72

S2: 1,133.00

S3: 1,124.75

Trading recommendations: Watch only for buying opportuntiies on the dips (after corrections).

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has pushed through the $1,168/70.00 levels earlier today before pulling back and it seems that bulls are back in control since the rally from the $1,075.00 levels looks to be in the 5 waves. The metal might have formed a meaningful bottom around the $1,075.00 levels and it is recommended to look to initiate long positions on dips towards the $1,110.00 levels as depicted here. Immediate support is seen at the $1,110.00 levels (which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 support) followed by $1,090.00, $1,075.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at the $1,175.00 levels and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and look to buy on dips.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 21, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair remains on the downside capped by the declining 20- and 50-period MAs. Currently, it is challenging the key support at 0.9510, but the risk of a downside breakout of this threshold remains high as the technical indicator RSI is bearish, calling for a further decline. In this case, a break below 0.9510 would trigger a drop towards 0.9475 and even 0.9410 as possible.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9510. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9475. The pivot point stands at 0.9630. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.670 and the second target at 0.9725.

Resistance levels: 0.9670 0.9725 0.9645

Support levels: 0.9510 0.9475 0.9425

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Technical analysis of Silver for August 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver pushed through the $15.60/70 levels before pulling back to $15.30. Please note that the metal has reacted well from the Fibonacci 0.618 support around $14.70/80 earlier, and bulls are expected to remain in control until the prices stay above the same. It is just a matter of time for bulls to push through the $15.90 levels now. It is hence recommended to remain long and also look to add on dips towards the $15.00/10 levels. Immediate support is seen at the $14.70 levels followed by $14.40 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $15.60/70 levels (interim) followed by $15.90, $16.40, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now and look to add on dips. Stop is at $14.70, target is $16.40.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 21, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair is still in an uptrend as the process of the higher highs and lows remains intact. The 20- and 50-period MAs are heading upwards and should continue pushing the prices higher. Furthermore, the intraday RSI indicator lacks downward momentum. Therefore, as long as 0.6595 is not broken, a continuation of the rebound seems to be on the cards. Our next upward targets are set at 0.6670 and 0.6690.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6670 and the second target at 0.6690. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6575 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6550. The pivot point is at 0.6595.

Resistance levels: 0.6670 0.6690 0.6945

Support levels: 0.6575 0.6530 0.6510

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 21, 2015

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USD/CAD is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair is reversing downwards while staying below its key resistance at 193.85. The 20-period intraday MA has just crossed below its 50-period one, confirming the intraday trend reversal. And the intraday RSI is below 50 and lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is therefore set at the low of 192.20. A break below this level would open the way for further weakness towards the 191.95 low of August 19 in extension. Only a break above the key resistance at 193.85 would call for further upside.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 192.20. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 191.95. The pivot point stands at 193.85. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.55 and the second target at 191.95.

Resistance levels: 194.55 194.95 195.30

Support levels: 192.20 191.95 191.35

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has again stalled around the 138.80/85 levels and it might be looking to drop to 137.50 before pushing higher. Please also note that the pair might have made an intermediary top at the 1.3885 levels and could produce a meaningful pullback, before reversing. It is hence recommended to exit long positions for now and remain flat. Immediate support is seen at the 137.00 levels (interim) followed by 135.00/50, 134.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at the 139.00 levels followed by 140.50 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Fix profits on long positions and remain flat.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for August 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to have dropped towards our minimum expectations around the 1.4978/80 levels, highlighted by the RED color here. Please also note that the pair still remains vulnerable and the potential remains for a drop into the 1.4800 levels before a bullish reversal. It is recommended to book full profits on short positions taken earlier and remain flat for a while. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4930 levels followed by 1.4750/60, 1.4550, and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5150 levels followed by 1.5350, 1.5400/10, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions and remain flat.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 21/08/2015

Global macro overview for 21/08/2015:

Yesterday's news on the resignation of Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has slightly changed the further political outlook in the Greek government. The step down justification provided by PM regarded paving the way for snap election next month. Nevertheless, the PM was abandoned by seven of his key officials after accepting the 86 million euro bailout earlier this month. This decision has a drastic consequences as it was perceived as betrayal by former party members. Nevertheless, the Eurogroup president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, has urged Greece officials not to abandon its commitments to the EU, hoping the new government will support the EU program and reforms.

The PM resignation has not been perceived by the market as bad news and the EUR/USD rate is higher than the yesterday close. The market might have been more occupied by the good numbers from the EU PMI data. Currently, the market is trying to break out even higher above the resistance at the level of 1.1278. The immediate support comes at the level of 1.1215.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 21, 2015

General overview for 21/08/2015 11:40 CET

The double zig-zag pattern in wave X brown looks completed, but the market might still try to test the intraday resistance at the level of 138.84 one more time. Any breakout higher above this level invalidates the count and makes the weekly pivot resistance at the level of 139.45 the first target for the up wave. On the other hand, a clear breakout below the intraday support at the level of 138.12 supports the bearish outlook.

Support/Resistance:

138.84 - Swing High | Intraday Resistance|

138.12 - Intraday Support

137.78 - Weekly Pivot

137.06 - Intraday Support (strong)

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders from yesterday have not been profitable and the small loss of 10-15 pips has been accounted. Nevertheless, daytraders should still consider opening a sell orders from the level of 138.84 with tight SL (10-15 pips) and TP at the level of 138.12. Any clear impulsive breakout higher above the level of 138.84 with hourly candle close above that level is bullish and all shorts should be closed immediately!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 21, 2015

General overview for 21/08/2015 11:30 CET

The corrective cycle labeled as wave X brown looks now completed and market might be ready to start the next wave down in order to complete the cycle. The most important level for today is the golden trendline dynamic resistance around the level of 1.3057. Any breakout below this level directly exposes the intraday support at the level of 1.3015 for test. On the other hand, any violation of the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3175 invalidates the bearish outlook.

Support/Resistance:

1.3175 - Intraday Resistance

1.3077 - Weekly Pivot

1.3057 - Golden Trend Line Support

1.3015 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening a sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 1.3175 and TP at the level of 1.3015.

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USDX technical analysis for August 21, 2015

The Dollar index broke below support levels yesterday as I initially expected and pushed lower towards the 95 support level. The longer-term price pattern remains inside the triangle boundaries. Price is heading towards 95 where the lower triangle boundaries are found.

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Blue line - broken support

Red line - resistance trend line

The Dollar index has broken below the 96 support and has reached the 1st short-term target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and trend remains bearish.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The Dollar index remains inside the triangle pattern and is heading towards the lower triangle boundary as expected. Short-term trend is bearish but medium- to long-term trend remains neutral. We have been inside this triangle for more than 5 months. I believe the 95 area should be a buy area as I believe support will be held. A breakout above the triangle will be a bullish signal targeting new highs.

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Gold technical analysis for August 21, 2015

Gold price remains in a bullish short-term trend and has made new higher highs towards $1,170. Price has broken above the weekly support but reached the 61.8% retracement of the decline from $1,225 to $1,1077. I do not see much more upside for Gold price.

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Red line - broken resistance

Blue lines - price projection

Gold price has almost reached the target of an equal upward move. Gold price is pulling back towards yesterday highs and I believe that this is the first short-term support. Breaking below $1,150 will push price even lower towards $1,140. Trend support is at $1,110.

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Weekly resistance area has been achieved. The bounce target I have been waiting since last week has met its goal. I will now turn Gold neutral as I believe the upside is limited and the chances of a bearish reversal have increased.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for August 21, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair has gone seriously upwards, moving near the resistance line at 1.1250. With more buying pressure, the resistance line would be breached to the upside as the price targets the resistance lines at 1.1300 and 1.1350. The support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100 could act as a test to any bearish attempts along the way.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument continues to plunge. The price is now below the resistance level at 0.9600, going towards the support level at 0.9500. The levels can be touched today or next week, especially if bears hold out long enough.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair continues to make serious attempts to go north, but the attempts are being subdued at the distribution territory of 1.5700. This has become another adamant distribution territory (after the one at 1.5650 was overcome following a long battle). This adamant distribution territory must be overcome as well: otherwise the price could trend lower.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has gone below the supply level at 123.50. This has resulted in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and the demand levels at 123.00 and 122.50 may be tested today or next week. There cannot be a threat to the bearish pattern as long as the price is below the supply level at 124.50.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument is now in a serious bullish mode, having gone above the demand zone at 138.50. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. This is a clean 'buy' signal - the supply zone at 139.00 might soon be tested.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 21 - 2015

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Technical summary:

We have seen the expected rally, but it has move firmly above our 1.6930 target. This rally needs to stay below the top at 1.7103 or our count will be invalidated and the decline from 1.7077 should be regarded as an expanded flat calling for red wave iii higher to 1.7696. At this point we need a break below minor support at 1.6826 to secure the top at 1.7103 for a correction lower to 1.6338.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.6920 with stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 1.6999 with the same stop at 1.7110.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 21 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The expected rally closer to 139.41 has unfolded nicely. In the short term, we will be looking for a break above the minor top at 138.85 as confirmation of the move higher to 139.41. Support is now found at 138.12, which ideally should protect the downside.

Once the 139.41 target is reached, a new consolidation is expected before the next rally higher to 141.06 and above.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 137.45 and will move our stop higher to 138.00 and place stop profit at 139.35.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 21, 2015

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When the European market opens, a series of economic news are due in the economic calendar such as Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, and GfK German Consumer Climate. The US will release the economic data too such as the US Flash Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1287.

Strong Resistance:1.1281.

Original Resistance: 1.1270.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1259.

Target Inner Area: 1.1233.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1207.

Original Support: 1.1196.

Strong Support: 1.1185.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1179.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 21, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will also release the macroeconomic report such as US Flash Manufacturing PMI. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.96.

Resistance. 2: 123.72.

Resistance. 1: 123.48.

Support. 1: 123.18.

Support. 2: 122.94.

Support. 3: 122.70.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 21, 2015

On the daily chart, bears are pushing the index lower until the support level of 95.50, which is a zone that can be tested in the coming hours at least. That's why we should expect a rebound over there, where a correction should happen before any further lower continuation. MACD indicator remains on the negative territory.

USDXDaily.png

The short-term outlook is very bearish, as the USDX continues to break supports on the downside road. Now it's testing the support level of 95.74. A breakout there will open the doors to fall until the 95.46 level at least. However, bear in mind the current bias is indicating oversold conditions in the short term.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57

Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.59

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.04 / 96.37

H1 chart's support levels: 95.74 / 95.46

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.74, take profit is at 95.46, and stop loss is at 96.04.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 21, 2015

GBP/USD is still alive in the bullish bias and the focus is at the resistance level of 1.5761, where we should expect a pullback on the daily chart. In coming days, maybe the pair will try to form another higher high pattern for a bullish continuation towards new highs.

GBPUSDDaily.png

On H1 chart, the pair again found dynamic support over the 200 SMA. So GBP/USD is looking to trade until the resistance level of 1.5715, where a breakout should happen in order to test the next important resistance around the 1.5763 level. The short-term outlook is still calling to the upside. MACD indicator is on the positive territory.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5761 / 1.5881

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5640 / 1.5543

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5715 / 1.5763

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5679 / 1.5632

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5715, take profit is at 1.5763, and stop loss is at 1.5666.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 21, 2015

USDCHFH1.png

Overview:

On the H1 chart:

  • Considering the previous events, the price of the USD/CHF pair is going to move between the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels at the level of 0.9441 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 0.9437 level. In particular, the USD/CHF pair will be able to form a double bottom at 0.9437. Therefore, it will be a good idea to sell below 0.9441 with the first target of 0.9526. It will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.9437.
1440110590_USDCHFH4.png

On the H4 chart:

  • According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.9420 and 0.9688. It should be noted that the key level is set at the level of 0.9426 because it represents strong support and it coincides with the last weekly pivot point. Equally important, the double bottom will be formed at the 0.9437 level but it seems the price is going to break this level in order to continue towards the level of 0.9566. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Hence, it will be a good idea to buy above the price of 0.9420 with the first target of 0.9566 in order to test the daily pivot point. Additionally, if the trend can break the daily pivot point, then it might resume to 0.9688 (strong resistance). Notwithstanding, check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalidate.
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for August 21, 2015

AUDUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • In the long term, the price of the AUD/USD pair has still been trapped between 0.7438 and 0.7215. But in the short term, the pair is moving in a tiny range between 0.7391 and 0.7268. Therefore, the first step is to wait for a period of a tight sideways market before breakouts. Then, probably, the market is going to start showing bullish signs. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.7216 - 0.7268 with the first target at 0.7390 and the price will climb towards 0.7412 in order to test the second resistance. Besides, it should be noted that a double top sets at the 0.7438 level which coincides with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, if the pair fails to break 0.7438, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.7438. Then the level will really act as strong resistance, it will be a good idea to sell below 0.7438 (the double top) with the first target at 0.7300 and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue a bearish movement towards 0.7266.

Intraday technical levels:

  • Projected high: 0.7438
  • Breakout (buy stop): 0.7391
  • Current pivot: 0.7336
  • Breakout (sell stop): 0.7268
  • Projected low: 0.7216
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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 20, 2015

gbppusdDAILY.png

Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was reached. This is where the ongoing bullish swing was initiated.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid SELL entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was initiated.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last month due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

However, a bullish pullback towards 1.5600 was expected to take place shortly after, as suggested in the previous articles.

Our SELL entry which was suggested around 1.5600 got triggered two weeks ago. An early exit should be considered if the current daily candlestick closes above 1.5690 (the upper limit of the consolidation range) .

A better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio may be offered around the price level of 1.5780 if enough bullish pressure is expressed above 1.5690.

Note that fixation below the price zone of 1.5550-1.5500 (mid-line of the consolidation range) is mandatory to pursue towards lower bearish targets at 1.5450 and 1.5350. As, it confirms the Triple-Top reversal pattern depicted on the chart.

On the other hand, daily fixation above 1.5690 (the upper limit of the consolidation range) hinders this bearish scenario for sometime. This probably exposes the breakout projection target at 1.5800 before further bearish decline can be achieved.

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Gold analysis for August 20 , 2015

GOLDDaily20.png

XAUUSDH420.png

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,151.51. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in an average volume. According to Wyckoff analysis, we have strong accumulation and bottoming on gold, so watch only for buying opportunities on the dips (after bearish corrections). We also got a strong shakeout bar in the background so gold can be bullish in the mid-term. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels. We got Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of $1,156.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,174.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,133.10

R2: 1,137.60

R3: 1,144.17

Support levels:

S1: 1,118.72

S2: 1,114.30

S3: 1,107.10

Trading recommendations: Watch only for buying opportuntiies on the dips (after corrections).

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