Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 11, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

The New Jersey Senate is about to consider a new bill that proposes a new mandatory licensing framework for all cryptocurrency companies operating in the state.

Unveiled on November 5, a new Senate bill, known as the "Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology Act," was sponsored by Senator Nellie Pou from New Jersey's 35th Legislative District, New Jersey. S3132 is now awaiting referral to the Senate Trade Committee.

Under the draft, all digital asset companies must already be licensed or at least have already applied for a license to legally do business with or on behalf of a state resident.

Alternatively, the business of digital assets may be considered legal in New Jersey if the business participants are already licensees in another state with which New Jersey has a reciprocity agreement.

The New Jersey Crypto License will authorize activities involving the issuance of digital assets, offering digital asset exchange services, borrowing digital assets, and storing or maintaining digital assets on behalf of others. The latter licensing requirement excludes entities that are already registered depositories in the United States, such as banks, trusts, and brokers. Any person or entity that conducts business without a license or license application would be fined $ 500 per day.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps hovering in a narrow range between the levels of $14,781 - $15,783, consolidating the recent gains in extremely overbought market conditions. There is a potential Bullish Flag price pattern in progress on the H4 time frame chart. The intraday technical support is currently seen at the level of $15,215 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $15,526. The up trend is still being continued, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $16,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $19,307

WR2 - $17,576

WR1 - $16,627

Weekly Pivot - $14,868

WS1 - $13,889

WS2 - $12,207

WS3 - $11,247

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 11, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

The New Jersey Senate is about to consider a new bill that proposes a new mandatory licensing framework for all cryptocurrency companies operating in the state.

Unveiled on November 5, a new Senate bill, known as the "Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology Act," was sponsored by Senator Nellie Pou from New Jersey's 35th Legislative District, New Jersey. S3132 is now awaiting referral to the Senate Trade Committee.

Under the draft, all digital asset companies must already be licensed or at least have already applied for a license to legally do business with or on behalf of a state resident.

Alternatively, the business of digital assets may be considered legal in New Jersey if the business participants are already licensees in another state with which New Jersey has a reciprocity agreement.

The New Jersey Crypto License will authorize activities involving the issuance of digital assets, offering digital asset exchange services, borrowing digital assets, and storing or maintaining digital assets on behalf of others. The latter licensing requirement excludes entities that are already registered depositories in the United States, such as banks, trusts, and brokers. Any person or entity that conducts business without a license or license application would be fined $ 500 per day.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps hovering in a narrow range between the levels of $14,781 - $15,783, consolidating the recent gains in extremely overbought market conditions. There is a potential Bullish Flag price pattern in progress on the H4 time frame chart. The intraday technical support is currently seen at the level of $15,215 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $15,526. The up trend is still being continued, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $16,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $19,307

WR2 - $17,576

WR1 - $16,627

Weekly Pivot - $14,868

WS1 - $13,889

WS2 - $12,207

WS3 - $11,247

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 11, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has tested the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.1908 - 1.1914 and then the rally was capped at the level of 1.1920. The market is currently trading in a horizontal manner, around the level of 1.1822, but there was a low made at the level of 1.1795 already. This recent price action looks like a right shoulder of a Head and SHoulders price pattern in progress. The local support for intraday traders is seen at the levels of 1.1789 and 1.1803, but if one of this level is violated, then the road towards the next support located at the level of 1.1695 is open. Please notice the market is coming off the overbought conditions, so the pull-back lower should continue.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2308

WR2 - 1.2092

WR1 - 1.2015

Weekly Pivot - 1.1812

WS1 - 1.1717

WS2 - 1.1522

WS3 - 1.1441

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 11

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Very weak indicators for the eurozone economy put serious pressure on the euro yesterday, which triggered a sell signal at 1.1816. But even though a number of short positions arose in the market, there wasn't any major price decrease, since the quotes moved no more than 30 points down. Then, in the afternoon, the EUR / USD pair went into breakeven.

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Trading recommendations for November 11

The European Central Bank is scheduled to have a conference today, during which they will address the economic recovery of the entire euro area. If its president, Christine Lagarde, touches on other topics aside from the coronavirus, demand is likely to increase for the euro.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1844 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1916. Growth will only occur if Christine Lagarde gives positive statements.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1809 (red line on the chart, and then take profit around the level of 1.1754. A downward correction is very much expected, after the strong bull market last week.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Good report was published on the UK labor market yesterday, as there was a decrease in jobless claims and increase in average weekly earnings. Such allowed the pound to continue its rise against the US dollar, thus, the bullish trend will most likely continue in the GBP / USD pair. The growth made long positions from 1.3200 to 1.3254 give more than 50 pips of profit to pound bulls.

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Trading recommendations for November 11

The market may fall in a lull today, especially since there are no economic statistics scheduled for publishing. Nonetheless, the safest bet is to trade along the current trend, that is, a bullish or further upward move in the GBP / USD pair.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3289 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.3357 (thicker green line on the chart). Good news over Brexit could raise demand for the British pound.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3252 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at least at the level of 1.3169. Bad news on Brexit will return the downward trend in the GBP/USD pair. In addition, a breakout at 1.3252 will lead to a technical correction, mainly due to the removal of many buy stop orders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 11, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has extended the rally towards the level of 1.3273, which is a 127% Fibonacci extension of the last wave up. The rally has made a Pin Bar and then a Shooting Star candlestick at its top, which can be seen on H4 time frame chart. Moreover, the market has hit the technical resistance located at the level of 1.3282, so some kind of pull-back should be expected. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.3182. Please notice the market keeps rallying in the overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3631

WR2 - 1.3400

WR1 - 1.3312

Weekly Pivot - 1.3083

WS1 - 1.2991

WS2 - 1.2762

WS3 - 1.2666

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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Inter-market technical analysis of stock indexes and oil prices

If we look at how the issue of the US presidential election unfolds, we can say that everything is chaotic. The official results have not yet been announced, one of the contenders claims numerous violations, while the supporters of the Democratic party have already lined up to pledge their respect to the new US president. However, the legalization of falsifications is in full swing and, apparently, Joe Biden can be safely called not elected, but appointed as the President of the United States. Nonetheless, we will not talk about elections, but about the consequences of elections for financial markets, and practically from the point of view of intermarket ties.

The end of the US presidential election that emits the dollar, and the appointment of Joe Biden as President, brought significant relief to the markets. As soon as it became clear that the Democratic leader will be able to take the White House, stock indexes around the world began to recover their lost positions, and on Monday, the SP500 stock index updated its historical high due to the news of the imminent start of registration and production of the Covid-19 vaccine by Pfizer. However, we could not hold on to the reached values, and there is almost no trace of the former growth.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 #SPX index failed to make an attempt to consolidate above the level of 3580, and there is a high possibility that it will return to the 3200 - 3500 range (Fig. 1) within the next one to two weeks. At the same time, it is early to draw any thoughtful conclusions about what will happen on the stock market for the time remaining until the new year. The final results have not yet been calculated, and the pandemic is still not going away.

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Fig. 1: Technical picture of the S&P 500 index on November 10

Even if Biden's victory is officially recognized, Republicans are waiting for him in the Senate, who will neglect his initiatives and bills in every possible way. Therefore, we should at least wait until the current week closes before we can draw preliminary conclusions. However, it is also early to talk about a false breakdown of the SP500 stock index up, against the background of the end of the US elections, because a false breakdown can easily become true again. We can't manage time, which means we just need to wait and consider different options without giving preference to any of them, reacting and not opening deals in accordance with our visions.

A similar picture has now emerged for many assets. The European currency in the EUR/USD pair remains in the range and continues to confuse traders with false breakdowns in both directions. The long-term, medium-term and short-term trends are directed upwards, and the range is a continuation trend pattern, but this is the euro, which means we should consider the range as a figure of uncertainty, with an equally probable rate exit in both directions.

On the other hand, the price of oil also interests traders. In both reference varieties - WTI and Brent, the bullish reversal pattern has not yet been fully formed. However, it can be argued with some caution that two of the three conditions necessary for classifying the oil drop that occurred last week as a false breakout have already been formed (Fig. 2). This gives us some hope, but nothing more.

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Figure 2: Technical picture of WTI #CL oil on November 10

Analyzing carefully the situation in Figure 2, we can see that #CL oil was in the range of $ 36.57- $ 41.39 from September to October. However, it declined to $ 33.97 in early November, but then returned to the above range and rose above its midpoint. Now, in order for oil to continue its increase, and its decline to the level of $33.97 can be classified as a false breakdown, the WTI brand needs to be fixed at the level of $41.40, or even better, $43.40. After the price is consolidated above these values, it will be safe to say that oil has changed its direction from a decrease to an increase and look at the purchases of oil and energy companies. But it is still early to do this at the moment.

According to the Traders Obligations Report (COT), the situation on the oil market is not as good as we would like to see. The fact is that at the time when #CL oil was testing level 34, the long positions of money manager speculators were reduced to six month lows, and their short positions, on the contrary, rose to the level of April. This is a very bad indicator from the point of view of oil price recovery. It is quite possible that the rapid growth in oil prices that we have seen over the past few days has led to the closing of sales deals opened by speculators, but we will only find out about this when a new report is published. So far, there is no no reason to accept this possibility as a fact.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 11, 2020

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GBP/JPY has rallied and more upside progress towards the former peak at 142.72 is expected. In the short-term, we should expect a minor set-back towards support near 138.25, but this minor corrective set-back should only prove temporary and set the stage for the next impulsive push higher towards 141.18 and 142.72 on the way higher towards 156.61.

Support is seen at 139.10 with solid support near 138.25.

R3: 141.18

R2: 140.46

R1: 140.03

Pivot: 139.72

S1: 139.10

S2: 138.75

S3: 138.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.45 and we will raise our stop to 137.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 11, 2020

analytics5fab717db279d.jpg(you can see the long-term count by clicking here) really starts to gather upside momentum, but for now, we will look for a move closer to the 127.02 peak.

Support is now seen at 123.95 and then at 123.44.

R3: 125.72

R2: 125.00

R1: 124.65

Pivot: 124.13

S1: 123.95

S2: 123.44

S3: 123.23

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.25 and we will raise our stop to 123.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD, Under bearish pressure below 1.1840, Analysis For November 11, 2020

The economic sentiment indicator for the EU fell to 32.8, German pollster ZEW data showed. This is the worst result since April when the first wave of the coronavirus adversely affected the euro zone economy. It could further weaken EUR/USD.

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair failed to break above resistance at 1.1840 a key area. If it consolidates above this level, it could give it a new upward impulse to the area of 1.1901 and 1.1962.

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The pair is under bearish pressure as you can see on the 4 hour chart, it is trading below the pressure line SMA 21 days and below the 2/8 of the murray resistance.

On the other hand, as long as it remains below 1.1810 it would be a good start to sell off, as the eagle indicator is showing a sign of overbought, and with a possible bearish bias in the short term.

Our recommendation is to sell below 1.1810 with targets at the 1.1758 zone of the EMA 200 days, and the 1.1725, level of the 0/8 Murray support.

The daily chart of the euro dollar is showing a bullish signal, which may give it strength to resistance levels of 1.2020 in the medium term, so be careful, the key level is 1.1750, this area should be monitored in the medium term to buy.

According to market sentiment, 72% of investors are short, this shows us that in the medium term this pair could continue to rise to levels of 1.19 and 1.1960.

Our Forecast for November 11:

  • Sell if pullback to 1.1840 with take profit in 1.1758 and 1.1725, Stop loss above 1.1870
  • Buy above 1.1845 with target 1.1901 . Stop loss, below 1.1810

Our support and resistance levels for November 11,

Resistance (1) 1.1841 Support (1) 1.1778

Resistance (2) 1.1873 Support (2) 1.1746

Resistance (3) 1.1905 Support (3) 1.1714

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD, key level to watch, Forecast for November 11, 2020

The United Kingdom is one of the European countries most affected by the coronavirus. The promising result of a possible cure for the coronavirus has been particularly positive for the British pound.

The pound maintains a strong uptrend, while other currencies are correcting technically. The pair remains firm amid the news on the coronavirus vaccine and the Brexit agreement.

From the technical point of view , we note that GBP/USD is very close to a key resistance zone of 5/8 of the murray level, this zone could stop the bullish momentum of this pair.

On the other hand, the eagle indicator which measures the strength of the market and anticipates a change in trend, is reaching an overbought zone, it is likely that in the next few hours there will be a correction in the pair.

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Our recommendation is if the GBP/USD pair trades below the 1.3230 pivot point zone again, it would be a good opportunity to sell short-term with targets at 1.3186 and 1.3125.

If the pound rebounds from the 1.3232 area, and consolidates above this level, it would be a good point to buy with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3337.

According to market sentiment, we note that 70% of traders are with positions to sell, and only 30% are buying, which would be a sign that the pair continues its short-term uptrend to levels of 1.3340 approximately.

Our Forecast for November 11:

  • Sell bellow 1.3230 with take profit in 1.3186 and 1.3125, Stop loss above 1.3270.
  • Buy if rebound around 1.3232 with target 1.3305 and 1.3340. Stop loss, below 1.3200.

Our support and resistance levels for November 11,

Resistance (1) 1.3311 Support (1) 1.3188

Resistance (2) 1.3356 Support (2) 1.3109

Resistance (3) 1.3435 Support (3) 1.3064

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 11? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued a new round of corrective movement last night. After the price rebounded off the 1.1903 level, we expect the downward movement to continue and the current trend should be a downward trend. Unfortunately, there is still no way to build a trendline or trend channel, which slightly complicates the trading process. Especially for novice traders. Therefore, each trader must decide for himself whether to trade at a given time. Yesterday's sell signal from MACD was weak. Today this indicator has recovered to the zero level, which means that a strong sell signal may appear in the near future. Novice traders are advised to wait for today's MACD downward reversal. In general, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within the horizontal channel. And this is in the long run. From time to time, the price leaves the channel and tries to form a new upward or downward trend. However, all previous attempts to do this have failed.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech today, no other events planned. Thus, it is highly likely that today's fundamental background will be extremely weak or it might even be absent. We believe that Lagarde is unlikely to mention anything of vital importance that will force traders to be more active. The second wave of coronavirus continues to rage in the eurozone, so Lagarde can only draw the attention of listeners to possible problems that the European economy may face due to a new wave of the pandemic, lockdowns that have been introduced by many EU countries. Therefore, if her speech touches on monetary policy or the economy, then it is unlikely that she will be hawkish (this term means strong speech, a speech that can support the euro's growth). Accordingly, in the best case (for the euro currency), Lagarde will not touch upon the topic of economics and monetary policy at all. Otherwise, we can expect the euro to fall. Of course, one shouldn't forget about the US political background as well. We do not believe that Donald Trump will simply and easily give up and hand over the reins of the country to Joe Biden. However, in the past few days, Trump has done nothing to match his recent threats to "fight to the end", "sue" and "count the votes." Therefore, if we do not receive new information on this topic, the US currency may continue to gradually strengthen.

Possible scenarios for November 11:

1) Buying the EUR/USD pair is irrelevant at this time, since the upward trend is not determined. We expect to see a downward movement towards the 1.1696 level. So now it is possible to buy the euro/dollar pair, but only when the current downward trend has ended, which is not expected in the near future, or after overcoming the 1.1903 level.

2) Trading for a fall is more relevant at this time, since the price rebounded from 1.1903. So now novice traders are advised to wait until a small upward correction has been completed and after that - a new sell signal from the MACD indicator, which can be worked out with targets of 1.1782 and 1.1749. Unfortunately, there is still no downward trend line or channel, which complicates the process of working with an assumed downward trend.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 11. COT reports. Pound buyers ignore Brexit risk and UK lockdown

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Contrary to all common sense, the British pound continues to grow against the US dollar, stamping entry signals to the market one by one. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down yesterday's trades. Everything is clear in the morning. Bulls break out and settle above resistance at 1.3205, where I recommended opening long positions. As a result, the pound gained more than 50 points and reached the 1.3261 target. I recommended selling the pound from the 1.3261 level immediately on a rebound with a correction of 20-30 points. In the end, this is what happened. After testing 1.3161, the pound rebounded by around 33 points.The bulls tried to go above 1.3261, but the bears managed to form a false breakout and pushed the pair to the 1.3205 area (the entry point after the false breakout is marked on the chart).

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But as we can see now, buyers of the pound do not intend to give up, and they have already taken resistance at 1.3261 in the Asian session, without encountering much opposition from the bears. Entry points to long positions are very difficult right now. One thing is clear, as long as trading continues above 1.3261, you can open long positions while expecting GBP/USD to strengthen to a high of 1.3315. Resistance at 1.3378 will be the next target, which is where I recommend taking profits. If bears try to regain control over the 1.3261 level and it fails while pound buyers form a false breakout there in the first half of the day, this will be an additional signal to open long positions. If bulls are not active when GBP/USD falls to support at 1.3261, then it is best not to rush into buying, but to wait until a larger area at around 1.3205 has been updated. I recommend opening long positions immediately on a rebound from a low of 1.3154, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers need to get back to the 1.3261 level, which they missed today in the Asian session. Testing this area from the bottom up will be the first signal to open short positions in anticipation of a downward correction to the support area of 1.3205, where I recommend taking profits. Moving averages, playing on the buyer's side, are just below this level. An equally important task for sellers is to break and settle below support at 1.3205, which will quickly pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.3154, where I recommend taking profits. Since we do not have any important fundamental statistics on the British economy today, there is a chance that the pair could grow. Lack of bears' activity in the resistance area of 1.3261 will result in strengthening GBP/USD. Therefore, while trading is above 1.3261, I recommend postponing short positions until the 1.3315 high is renewed. Selling the pound right away on a rebound is best done from a larger resistance of 1.3378, counting on a correction of 20-30 points.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and a slight increase in short ones. Long non-commercial positions fell from 31,799 to 27,701. At the same time, short non-profit positions only rose to 38,928, from 38,459. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was 11,227, against 6,660 a week earlier, which indicates that sellers of the British pound remain in control and have a minimal advantage in the current situation.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates further growth along the trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border in the 1.3270 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. A break of the lower border of the indicator around 1.3215 will increase the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 11. COT reports. Volatility falls, euro pressure eases

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Selling the euro below 1.1797 yesterday, which I mentioned in my afternoon forecast, did not bring much profit, although there were all preconditions for a succeeding decline. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember yesterday's forecast, you will see that after a failed attempt to fall below the 1.1797 level, the bulls managed to reclaim this range. Settling on it and testing it from top to bottom formed a signal to buy the euro (I marked the area on the chart), but the upward movement was also not unidirectional, which made it possible to take no more than 20 profit points from the market.

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From a technical point of view, nothing has changed for euro buyers. They will also focus on protecting support at 1.1797 in the morning, which was updated yesterday for the second time this week. Bulls will be able to protect the 1.1797 level considering that we do not have any fundamental data today, we only have European Central Bank Christine Lagarde's speech. Forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open long positions in hopes to bring back the bullish trend that we saw last week. An equally important goal is a breakout and being able to settle above the resistance of 1.1860, just below which there are moving averages playing on the side of the bears. Getting the pair to settle at this level forms a signal to open long positions in hopes to recover to a high of 1.1915 and its renewal in the 1.1964 area, where I recommend taking profits. If bulls are not active at the 1.1797 level, it is possible that the downward correction will continue. Therefore, in case the price falls below this level, I recommend opening new long positions after updating support at 1.1743, or for a rebound from the 1.1701 level, counting on a rebound of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Most likely, Lagarde will not talk about any important changes in monetary policy at the end of the year, so volatility is expected to be quite low today since the United States is celebrating Veterans Day. Markets will also be closed in some European cities, but for their own reasons. Sellers need to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1860 today, which will be a signal to open short positions in hopes of completing the bull market and forming the downward correction. The first target in this scenario will be the low of 1.1797, which could not be broken through yesterday, even against the background of weak eurozone fundamental reports. However, it is possible to sell below this range, but only when the price has settled and this area has been tested from the bottom up (similar to yesterday's sale, which I analyzed above). In this case, the downward wave will reach a larger low at 1.1743, and the bears' farthest target in the middle of the week will be support at 1.1701, where I recommend taking profits. If bears are not active in the 1.1860 resistance area, it is best to postpone short positions until yesterday's high at 1.1915 has been tested, or sell EUR /USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.1964 resistance counting on a 15-20 point correction within the day.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 recorded a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose from 61,888 to 67,888. The total non-commercial net position fell to 140,349, from 155,555 a week earlier. However, the bullish sentiment on the euro remains rather high in the medium term, especially after the victory of Joe Biden, who intends to endow the US economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of further downward correction of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1834 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A break of the lower border at 1.1797 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Bank of England is supporting the growth of the pound. GBPUSD looking for purchases.

At the beginning of this week, there was an increase that allowed us to gain a foothold above the bank liquidity zone. This indicates a large number of market purchases open in a wide range. Over the past 6 days, the pair has grown by 3%, indicating the strength of the upward movement. Any decline should be considered as an opportunity to buy the instrument.

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Looking for sales means working against the actions of the Central Bank. This is fraught with large drawdowns or triggering stop losses. The most profitable strategy is to hold previously opened purchases and search for new opportunities to enter the bullish momentum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Growth prospects of the EUR/USD. Central European Bank for the growth of the Euro.

This week, any decline in the pair should be considered from the point of view of the opportunity to get favorable purchase prices. The Central Bank of Europe held the price of EUR/USD above the level of 1.1796, which indicates support for the growth of the European currency for the next 5 days.

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It is important to determine the zone for profitable purchases which will become relevant after the closing of today's trading. If the opening of the European session occurs at the current levels, this zone will become the defining one for the upward momentum. It is worth remembering that the growth structure of the last six days indicates support for growth from major players. Monday's movement allowed us to form a pattern of absorption for the daily level, so we should expect an update of the weekly maximum no earlier than Thursday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro traded with a range of 30 points on Tuesday, closing the day near its opening. Markets took a short break after Monday's increased activity. The euro was unable to grow following oil (4.95%) and gold (0.75%), since the index of economic sentiment in the euro area fell from 52.3 to 32.8 in November and also on the understanding that the recent report of Pfizer about 90% effectiveness of their vaccine meant that 94 out of 43,538 people with covid were vaccinated, it is assumed that all vaccinated test participants were then infected with the virus to obtain statistical material. Of course, the participants in the experiment were not intentionally infected, and the message was a common PR move.

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But does this mean that the euro will fall? This cannot be answered in the current situation, since the price is in a neutral position from a technical point of view - the price is settling below the target level of 1.1830 with the horizontally moving Marlin oscillator on the daily chart. There is interest in buying when the price is above the balance line, but the medium and long-term trend is adjusted downward when it is below the MACD line. Since no mood is clearly expressed, and if we assume that the fervor of the bulls has not yet dried up, then the price may try to attack the MACD line for the second time. Getting the price to settle below the 1.1750 level, will most likely cause a desire to reach the September low (1.1620).

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The price is settling above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the declining zone. Taken together, this may be a sign of consolidation with the intention to break down below the MACD line, near the target level 1.1750.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 11, 2020

AUD/USD

Over the past day, the Australian dollar has managed to gain a foothold above the MACD indicator line (daily), which shows the trend's direction and separately represents the level of support and resistance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally, which increases the likelihood of the price reaching the upper border of the price channel at 0.7332.

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This does not mean that the aussie would not leave the price channel. In this case, the target will be the September 1 high at 0.7415. The aussie's mood will change when the price settles below the 0.7222 level. The Marlin can already go into the negative area by this time.

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The four-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator has already entered the downward trend zone, but the overall bullish sentiment is sufficient for the price to attack the nearest resistance. It is the upper border of the price channel of the higher timeframe (0.7332). In this case, the price can form a more pronounced divergence with the oscillator.

The MACD line slightly expands the support zone on the H4, under which it will become a condition for the price to fall in the medium-term. The 0.7190-0.7222 range becomes such a support zone.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 11, 2020

USD/JPY

Optimism on stock markets is waning. The Dow Jones index still managed to grow by 0.90%, but the S&P 500 fell by 0.14%, the Nasdaq by -1.37%. On the one hand, investors were simply shifting from high-tech stocks to undervalued ones, on the other hand, optimism diminished with information that Pfizer's vaccine can only be stored at very low temperatures (-70 C) and not so much protects against viral infection as reduces the severity of the disease.

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The USD/JPY pair lost only 9 points, but it is already down 15 points this morning. Of course, such dynamics is not an indicator of reversal sentiment, but the main thing here is that the price went under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart. This is the first sign of a change in mood. It will confirm that the price moves below the embedded line of the price channel at the 104.75 level. Then the first target will be the 104.05 level, then 103.18. The price moving beyond yesterday's high will contribute to the pair's growth to 106.06.

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The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. A certain triangle is formed, afterwards the price is likely to accelerate to one side. Leaving the triangle may turn out to be false, which further increases the uncertainty of the current moment. The probability of a downside scenario is, however, 55%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 11. COT report. Analysis of Tuesday's deals. Wednesday recommendations

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair broke through the important resistance area of 1.3160-1.3184 and continued to move up on Tuesday, November 10. By the end of the trading day, the pair reached the resistance level of 1.3266 and could not overcome it. The rising trend line continues to support bull traders, so they retain their dominance in the forex market. Oddly enough, the fundamental background is such that it should contribute more to the pound's decline, and not for it to strengthen. Nevertheless, buyers are currently in the game and need to overcome the 1.3266 level in order to continue moving up. Sellers need to wait, until the price settles below the 1.3160 -1.3184 area in order for it to move to the trend line. Breaking the trend line will allow us to expect a new downward trend.

GBP/USD 15M

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The linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates that there are no signs of starting a downward movement. Therefore, the lower timeframe does not provide any reason to conclude that the upward movement is over. However, buyers need to overcome the 1.3266 level today, otherwise a stronger correction will begin.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair only lost 100 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2). The pound began to rise after November 2. And it wasn't so much of a rise, but more like the dollar's fall. However, let's go back to the reporting period. Non-commercial traders closed 3,281 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,146 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased by 4,500. This is much more clearly visible on the chart of the first indicator. The green and red lines, which represent the net positions of the two most important groups of traders, began to diverge in different directions. Therefore, the mood of professional traders is becoming more bearish again. However, this change did not result in the pound's decline. Because elections were already held in the United States on November 3 and the dollar was only getting cheaper then. Therefore, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report may show that the bearish mood is weakening among professional traders. However, in any case, we believe that the markets need to calm down and only after that will it be possible to look at all the information in a new way. It is now clear that market participants are in a very agitated state due to the political chaos that is now present in the United States. Therefore, the mood of large traders can change quickly and dramatically.

The fundamental background on Tuesday was associated with the British currency. The UK published a report on the unemployment rate, which rose from 4.5% to 4.8% in September. The number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 29,800 (forecast +36,000). The average salary with and without premiums rose more than experts predicted. In addition, the House of Lords of the British Parliament refused to vote "for" the resonant Johnson bill, which directly violates the Brexit deal with the European Union. Thus, for the time being, the conflict with the EU is put on hold, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not going to give up and will continue to push through this law. We believe that this bill is needed to put pressure on the European Union in order for them to be more accommodating in negotiations. However, Johnson's bluff (or blackmail) is visible to absolutely everyone. And the EU is ready to launch a judicial procedure if the bill is adopted.

The UK is scheduled to release its NIESR GDP growth estimate on Wednesday. According to forecasts, GDP may grow by 20.1% in October. Any value much higher than the forecast could once again support the British pound. There are no major publications or speeches scheduled in the US. We continue to believe that, in general, the pound has already risen too much in price against the dollar. However, so far there are no technical signals and no technical confirmation of the hypothesis about the imminent start of the pair's downward movement. Thus, it is clearly too early to open short positions.

We have two trading ideas for November 11:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair are still unable to overcome the resistance level of 1.3266, which prevents them from moving up. However, they do not go far from this level and will continue to test it for strength. Thus, we recommend buying the pair if this level is overcome, while aiming for the next resistance level of 1.3382. Take Profit in this case will be up to 90 points.

2) Sellers do not currently own the initiative in the market. If the price settles below the 1.3160-1.3184 area, you can try to sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.3103) in small lots, as the trend continues to rise above the trend line. Take Profit in this case can be up to 30 points. You can confidently open short positions after breaking the trend line while aiming for the support area of 1.3004-1.3024 and the support level of 1.2943. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 100 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 11. Boris Johnson has suffered another defeat that could save his relationship with

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 125.8941

The British pound sterling paired with the US dollar on Tuesday continued to "tear and throw". If the European currency began to adjust, the British pound continued to rise in price against the US dollar for most of the day. We have repeatedly called into question the expediency and validity of the actions of market participants who actively buy the pound. It should be understood that the prospects for the British economy remain extremely vague. There is no positive news regarding the negotiation process between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost. In the UK, unlike the US, a repeated "lockdown" has been introduced and there is no doubt that it will be reflected in the macroeconomic indicators. Naturally, negative. Thus, it is not clear what factors are driving the pound up in price. However, we still believe that the British currency will start to fall in the near future, and now it is extremely overbought.

Meanwhile, in the UK, a rather unexpected and resonant event occurred in the Parliament. The Upper House of Parliament (the House of Lords) blocked the "Johnson bill", which violates the Brexit agreement reached with the European Union in 2019. British media reported that the House of Lords demanded to remove all controversial items from the bill "on the internal market of Great Britain", which should protect trade between Northern Ireland, Wales, England, and Scotland after Brexit. The government does not have a majority in the Upper House of Parliament, but even some representatives of the Conservative Party voted against this bill. "The government must accept the repeal of these offensive provisions and start restoring our international reputation," said Angela Smith, the leader of the Labor Party in the House of Lords. However, it is reported that the government will continue to try to pass this bill, according to sources close to Boris Johnson. Normally, the House of Lords does not block bills that have been approved by the House of Commons. However, this time, Boris Johnson's actions may not just damage the UK, but also damage its reputation on the international stage for many years to come. Thus, it would be better for the UK if this bill is never passed. We can also note another defeat of Boris Johnson in his career as Prime Minister of Great Britain. This time, he failed to pass a bill through Parliament, even if the majority of members of the Lower House are conservatives. The Upper House has started blocking Boris Johnson's initiatives, which is rare. Thus, even members of Parliament are beginning to show how much they trust the Johnson government. Yet most of the rights turn out to be Joe Biden, who has repeatedly called Johnson a "clone of Trump". Indeed, Boris Johnson is similar to Trump in appearance, also likes to act in a completely discouraging manner, as if he is running his own personal business, and not running the country. Thus, we believe that sooner or later Johnson will follow in the footsteps of Trump. Donald managed to hold out for four years in office, and Boris may not even be able to do this task. The British Parliament does not need to start showing votes of no confidence in the Prime Minister, as was repeatedly with Theresa May.

Meanwhile, the topic of Joe Biden's victory in the US election could not but affect future relations between the UK and America. After all, now Boris Johnson will have to negotiate not with his "friend" Trump, but with Biden, who has repeatedly criticized him. And the stumbling block in relations between Biden and Johnson may be just a bill that openly violates the principles of international law, violates the provisions of the Protocol on the Northern Irish border, and even affects the personal interests of Biden, who has Northern Irish roots. Johnson, of course, tries to put a good face on a bad game and declares that the United States and Great Britain are in any case allies and friends, have a similar ideology and goals. This means that Washington and London will be able to agree on a trade deal and fruitful cooperation on many issues. However, experts do not think so. Johnson is still unable to agree on fruitful cooperation even with the European Union, of which the UK has been a member in recent decades. His effectiveness as the head of the country is still very low, and there are a lot of mistakes. Thus, US-British relations may indeed be very tense in the next four years. Especially if Johnson does show himself to the world as a politician whose word is worthless.

And the above factors are just additional factors that may also put pressure on the British currency in the coming months. In addition to all the economic problems, Britain may face geopolitical problems (the independence referendum in Scotland). Also, we should not forget that the Bank of England has been studying the possibility of introducing negative rates for several months, and "there is no smoke without fire". Thus, we believe that the economic situation of the United Kingdom will deteriorate in the future. Both at the end of 2020 and during 2021. It is also worth recalling that the British economy lost 20% in the second quarter and may lose some more percent at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth due to the "lockdown". Thus, we once again show our surprise at the fact that the British currency is growing at this time, especially when the European currency is falling. It would seem that the US dollar has been the driver for both major pairs in recent weeks. But yesterday, the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs were trading in different directions. Despite the fact that there were no macroeconomic publications in the UK and the European Union that could seriously affect the mood of traders, there were no resonant speeches by top officials.

From a technical point of view, the formation of an upward trend continues, which is indicated by even the fastest Heiken Ashi indicator. Thus, buyers keep the initiative in their hands and continue to dominate the market. Sellers will not be able to join the game until the price is fixed below the moving average line.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 146 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, November 11, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3096 and 1.3388. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3123

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

R2 – 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is still in an upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open long positions with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3388 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.3000 and 1.2939 if the price is fixed below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 11. Donald Trump will try to finally "slam the door" loudly before leaving the post

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 19.7199

The second trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was almost perfect, from the point of view of technical analysis. The correction that started the day before continued and the price worked out the moving average line during the day. Thus, traders can now expect a rebound from the moving average and a resumption of the upward trend. However, if you pay more attention to various graphical constructions, it becomes clear that the prospects for strong growth in the euro currency are also few. Buyers have once again failed to overcome the level of 1.1900, which is also the upper line of the side channel $1.17-1.19, which we have talked about a lot of times. Thus, the euro currency has not been able to update the maximum of 2020, respectively, it is the US currency that has a better chance of growth now, which has been growing from time to time in recent months. However, now that the presidential election is over, it can feel calmer.

Meanwhile, the current President of the United States, Donald Trump, is not only going to challenge the results of the vote count in almost half of the states but is also going to run for President in four years. Many media outlets said this yesterday, citing sources close to the President himself. It is reported that support for Trump among American voters remains extremely high, which could allow him to win the GOP primary in four years. It is also reported that many members of the Republican party are afraid of this development, preferring that their party has a new candidate for President-2024. At the same time, the US Presidential Transfer Center (Yes, there is one) expressed support for Joe Biden and called on the current US President to launch the transfer of power procedure. "We urge the Trump administration to immediately begin the post-election transition process, and the Biden team to use the resources available under the Presidential Transition Act," the Center said in a statement.

Meanwhile, many traders are wondering what will happen next after Joe Biden won the election? Contrary to popular belief, Joe Biden will not move to the White House tomorrow or in the near future in general. Joe Biden must be voted on by the electoral college of each state in the United States. Voting is scheduled for December 14. Only after it takes place will it be possible to call Joe Biden "the new President" with confidence. And the new presidential term will begin in 2021, to be more precise – on January 20. On this day, the President and Vice President must take the oath of office on Capitol Hill. From the moment the election results are announced until January 20, the so-called "transition period" will be in effect. At this time, the new President usually recruits a team that will work with him for the next four years. In general, organizational issues will be resolved. Can the results of this election really be challenged in court by Trump and his team? It can. But it will not bring results. Simply put, Joe Biden's victory is so unequivocal that a review of the voting results in one or two states will not give the current President anything. And it won't be possible to recount the votes in all the states where Trump lost. Most experts also claim another batch of Trump's unfounded accusations against Biden. The President claims that the Democrats rigged the election, but does not provide any evidence of his words. This was the case more than a dozen times during the four years of Donald's presidency. Trump blamed the Democrats, China, the European Union, and many others in a similar vein, rarely making any strong arguments. The media and ordinary people have long been accustomed to the fact that if Trump accuses someone and threatens to provide evidence in the next week, then you can forget about it forever.

Thus, at the moment, we can really say that the process of transferring power from Trump to Biden will take place. For sure, Trump will try to "annoy" the future US President Biden to the maximum. However, these are all small things. The main thing is that Trump lost, lost on all fronts, lost as painfully as possible. Now he has only a few months left to spend as head of state. But what Trump will spend these months on is still a very big question. Here everything will depend on the very personality of Trump. Will he try to take revenge on Biden for losing the election? Will he try to endlessly challenge the election results just to delay the transfer of power as much as possible? Is there any sense in this at all, except for the consolation of self-love? Unfortunately, from our point of view, Trump is really a very proud person, so he can really slam the door of the White House very loudly at the end. Yes, so much so that some windows may fly out.

In general, the US currency may feel more relaxed in the coming days and even weeks. In Europe, the second "wave" of COVID-2019 is raging, and many countries have introduced "lockdowns". Thus, during November and December 2020, the pan-European economy may contract again or seriously slow down in its recovery. Unlike the US economy, which continues to be open. Moreover, if the Pfizer vaccine does go into mass production, then "lockdown" will not have to be introduced, since vaccination of the population may begin in a few months. Accordingly, the US economy will continue to recover at the same pace. Naturally, this state of affairs plays into the hands of the US currency, which has been feeling very hard over the past six months. However, the long-term prospects for the US dollar with the victory of Joe Biden look rather vague. We have repeatedly said that under democratic presidents, the US currency often becomes cheaper than more expensive. However, this is a perspective of several years, not months or weeks.

From a technical point of view, first, you need to wait for the price to consolidate below the moving average line and then talk about a possible further fall in the pair's quotes. We believe that this is real, and the euro/dollar pair will continue to move down, at least to the lower line of the side channel of $1.17-$1.19.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 11 is 121 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1695 and 1.1937. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back to the top may signal the resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1780

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1902

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be adjusted. Thus, today it is recommended to open new buy orders with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902 if the price bounces off the moving average line. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1719 and 1.1695.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPUSD – the situation is not easy, but do not rush to conclusions

Since the beginning of November, the exchange rate of the British Pound has strengthened by more than 350 points (2.85% of the total value), which is quite a lot, and if you remember that in the period of October, the Pound sterling gained almost 4.0% in weight, then the scale of the change is very large.

Where is the pound sterling going?

That question is not easy but the answer is not on the side of the UK but on the side of the US Dollar, which, due to the US presidential election, was under in local sales which affected the entire market.

It turns out that the strengthening of the pound sterling is nothing more than a local change. That is, problems in the UK economy-- lockdown, Brexit-- will still affect the exchange rate of the British currency, but with a slight delay.

Now, as in principle, the market is ruled by speculators everywhere so depending on the incoming information, local changes occur even at the time of a heavily overbought Pound sterling.

From the latest material, it is worth starting with the fact that the news about the successful test of the COVID vaccine from pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and BioNTech locally stirred up the market during the past day, which led to the strengthening of the US Dollar.

At the same time, it was reported that the House of Lords of Great Britain rejected the internal market bill, which violates the terms of Brexit. This news is considered positive, as it partially reduces the risk of disruption of the already tense negotiations between England and Brussels. Due to this news, the strengthening of the Dollar against the Pound sterling was small when comparing the dynamics with the Euro/Dollar.

Be aware of all the trends on how the EUR/USD currency pair reacted to the news about the COVID vaccine.

In terms of technical analysis, it is worth noting that in the period of two trading days (November 6 and 9), the quote moved along the trajectory of a narrow range, where the coordinates of 1.3120 and 1.3200 were used as borders. In fact, the accumulation process was obtained, which appeared at the peak of the inertia course of the past week and also coincided with the area of the local maximum of October 21.

As for the dynamics for November 9, another slowdown is recorded at 89 points, which worried market participants for the second day in a row. We should not forget that a deviation from the general dynamics leads to even stronger interest on the part of speculators which eventually leads to a new round of acceleration in the market.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see that the upward movement from the local minimum of 1.2674 has already stretched for 7.5 weeks and the scale of the price change violates the clock component during the first half of September.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, data was received on the UK labor market, where the unemployment rate for September rose from 4.5% to 4.8% but employment for August fell by as much as 164,000, while waiting for a decrease of 140,000.

Labor market indicators are quite negative but October's benefit applications came to the rescue, and instead of an increase of 36,000, there was a reduction of 29,800 which may benefit the unemployment rate in the subsequent reporting period.

Perhaps due to the indicators on applications for unemployment benefits, there was growth of the Pound sterling in the local perspective.

Analyzing the current trading schedule, you can see that the statistics for the UK, which were released at the beginning of the European session, benefited the British currency due to the discrepancy in analysts' expectations regarding the volume of applications for unemployment benefits. As a result, the two-day stagnation of 1.3120/1.3200 was broken in the upward direction, where the quote rushed to the subsequent level of 1.3300.

It can be assumed that the breakdown of the range in the upward direction will affect the volume of long positions in favor of growth. In this case, the overbought level of the Pound will continue to grow, which in turn may lead to uncontrolled fixing of long positions in the future. This will lead to a sharp decline in the exchange rate as soon as this moment comes.

While speculators are pushing the Pound sterling, a touch of the 1.3300 level is not excluded. With the new ceiling, the main maximum of the medium-term trend of 1.3480 from September 1 remains.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments hold the buy signal due to successive updates of local highs.

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The volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Monthly, Quarterly, and Yearly

The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month, Quarter, and Year.

(November 10 was based on the date of publication of the article)

The dynamics of the current time is 121 points, which is almost equal to the average level. It is worth considering that we have an acceleration relative to the dynamics of November 6 and 9, which was expected due to a sharp slowdown in the market.

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Key level:

Resistance zones: 1,3300**; 1,3600; 1,3850; 1,4000***; 1,4350**.

Support areas: 1,3175( 1,3200), 1,3000***, 1,2840/1,2860/1,2885, 1,2770**, 1,2620, 1,2500, 1,2350**, 1,2250, 1,2150**, 1,2000*** (1,1957), 1,1850, 1,1660, 1,1450 (1,1411).

* Periodic level

**Range level

***Psychological level

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 11. COT report. Analysis of Tuesday's deals. Wednesday recommendations

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair did not make any new attempts to overcome the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912 and generally moved down on the hourly timeframe on Tuesday, November 10, but was weaker than the day before. Thus, our early forecasts predicting a rebound from the 1.1886-1.1912 area were correct. And since the pair did not settle above this area, traders could continue to trade short during the day. The closest target - the Kijun-sen line - was reached, but it also increased the previous day. In general, the upward trend for the EUR/USD pair still persists in the currency market, despite the fact that there is no trend line now. However, the EUR/USD pair continues to stay above the critical line. And as long as the price is above this line, the outlook for bulls remains. However, we have repeatedly drawn the attention of traders to the fact that it will be very difficult to gain a foothold above the 1.1900 level. And from a fundamental point of view, there is no reason to rise above 1.1900. Thus, we are more inclined towards the option that quotes would fall further. However, sellers need to overcome the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines in order for a full downward trend to appear.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe. However, the key moment now is rebounding from the 1.1886-1.1912 area, which triggered a downward movement, which is still corrective. Further prospects for sellers lie below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair lost 170 points during the last reporting week (October 27-November 2).

A strong upward movement began after this time range. Therefore, the fact that the pair gained 220 points simply does not fall within the timeframe of the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. According to it, professional traders closed 9,200 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,800 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders decreased by 17,000 at once. And any decrease in the net position indicates a strengthening of the bearish mood. Consequently, professional traders continue to look towards selling the euro. Therefore, even despite the subsequent growth, we still believe that the high near the 1.2000 level will still be the peak of the entire upward trend. At least the COT data continues to signal just that. The technical analysis may contradict the COT report, as the latter comes out with a three-day delay. We cannot now know how the big players behaved in the period from November 3 to 6, which is when the dollar was significantly falling due to the elections. Indicators are also signaling good prospects for a new downward trend, as the green and red lines continue to narrow (the first indicator). And they, we recall, reflect the net positions of non-commercial traders and commercial ones.

No macroeconomic releases for America and the European Union on Tuesday. And so traders had nothing to react to during the day. They didn't react. The pair calmly traded throughout the day. The tension in the foreign exchange market continues to subside, and at the same time the dollar starts to rise in price. Therefore, we still expect a technical correction after the 280-point rally. Donald Trump has not yet made any real attempts to cancel the results of the national vote, but continues to threaten and accuse Joe Biden through the media and Twitter.

No important macroeconomic reports for both America and the EU on Wednesday. Thus, the fundamental and macroeconomic background will be rather scarce once again. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech, but Lagarde must share important information in order for the markets to react to this event. What can she say? Given the fact that the EU is facing the second wave of COVID-19, the rhetoric of the head of the ECB can only be dovish. She can only take note of the high threats of the second wave of the pandemic for the European economy, as well as a high degree of uncertainty. Thus, either her speech will be uninformative ang traders will ignore it, or it could cause short deals on the euro.

We have two trading ideas for November 11:

1) Buyers need to wait until they have gone beyond the 1.1886-1.1912 area in order to open new buy positions on the pair with the nearest target at the resistance level of 1.1976. Or wait for the price to rebound from the Kijun-sen line (1.1800) and trade up while aiming for the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912. Take Profit in the first case will be up to 50 points, in the second - up to 60 points.

2) The bears kept the pair below the 1.1886-1.1912 area. However, they need to overcome the Kijun-sen line (1.1800) in order to be able to continue trading downward while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.1733) and the 1.1692-1.1699 support area. Take Profit in this case can range from 40 to 80 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

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