USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 14, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed a further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

Two weeks ago, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3530.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 14, 2017

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The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why further bearish fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, bullish breakout was achieved above the depicted key level (0.6960).

That is why, the recent bearish pullback toward 0.6960 offered significant bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry which is running in profits now.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7100 remains a significant key level to be watched for bearish price action when bullish pullback extends above 0.7040.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 14, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2530. According to the 1H time frame, I found a broken broken upward trendline, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potetnial selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2375.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2520

R2: 1.2525

R3: 1.2530

Support levels:

S1: 1.2505

S2: 1.2500

S3: 1.2495

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for April 14, 2017

USD/CAD had impulsive bullish move yesterday after the massive selling the day before. This market is very volatile, and currently the price is in indecisive situation. Today the Unites States revealed the CPI report which showed a negative figure of -0.3% versus the expected reading of 0.0%. Core CPI was also negative at -0.1% while it was expected to be at 0.2%. Core retail sales report was equally downbeat at 0.0% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Similarly, the retail sales report registered a decline of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.1%. Amid negative streak of the US fundamental reports today, CAD gained some ground despite the Bank Holiday.

Now let us look at the technical picture. Amid the USD negative economic reports, the price is showing some downward pressure currently but the bearish bias is not quite confirmed yet. As of the volatility in this pair, we will be looking for selling opportunities after the price break the level of 1.3280 with an intraday close, targeting the recent support at 1.3210. If the price breaks above the 20 EMA, we will be looking forward to buy towards 1.3380.

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EUR/JPY analysis for April 14, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 114.60. According to the 4H time frame, I found that downward channel is still very active. Sellers are in control and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downward target is set at the price of 114.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: 115.85

R2: 116.00

R3: 116.25

Support levels:

S1: 115.45

S2: 115.30

S3: 115.05

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/AUD Fundamental Analysis April 14, 2017

EUR/AUD has been in a volatile bullish trend. Yesterday, it bounced off from the resistance 1.4130 and went down with an impulsive bearish candle. Yesterday, on the EUR's front EUR German Final CPI was published without any changes and it came in at 0.2%. France Final CPI was also published without any changes at 0.6%. On the other hand, on the AUD's front the Employment Change report revealed a notable change yesterday at 60.9k which was expected to be at 20.3k and the Unemployment Rate was also unchanged at 5.9%. AUD is still strong and dominating EUR till today. Today there are no market-moving events on both EUR and AUD side amid a bank holiday. So the market is expected to be less volatile till close.

Now let us look at the pair from the technical view. The price has currently violated the 20 EMA with an impulsive bearish movement. As the price remains below the resistance area of 1.4130-1.4290, the pair is expected to go down towards support at 1.3680-1.3730 area.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 14, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating for most of this week, going briefly upwards on Wednesday. It happened in the context of a downtrend, and it is most likely that when momentum returns to the market, it would be in favor of bears. The outlook on the market remains bearish.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has been consolidating for most of this week, going briefly downwards on Wednesday. It happened in the context of an uptrend, and it is most likely that when momentum returns to the market, it would be in favor of bulls. The outlook on the market remains bullish.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair went upwards this week, and it is currently correcting to the downside, though the Bullish Confirmation Pattern remains intact in the market. Further northwards journey is expected soon as the distribution territories at 1.2600 and 1.2650 are reached, which are still valid targets.

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USD/JPY: This is a bearish market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI with period 14 is below the level of 50. The outlook on the market (as well as other JPY pairs), remains bearish. So there are still possibilities that the demand levels at 109.00, 108.50 and 108.00 would be tested between now and next week.

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EUR/JPY: This pair has consolidated so far in the context of a downtrend. Price may gain some momentum soon, which would most probably happen before the end of next week. When momentum strengthens, it would favor bears, as price goes towards the demand zones at 116.00, 115.50 and 115.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0057. This morning, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0057 (this level of 1.0057 coincides of the 50% Fibonacci retracement) to set around the price of 1.0040.
  • Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0057 followed by 1.0086, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.0008.
  • According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 1.0057 and 0.9960; for that we expect a range of 97 pips. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0057, the market will decline further to 1.0008.
  • This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs.
  • The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9960 in order to form a new double bottom.
  • On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0057, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Global macro overview for 14/04/2017

Global macro overview for 14/04/2017:

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data beat market expectations. The index reading for April increased to 98.0 from 96.9 the previous month. The reading was above consensus expectations of 97.1 and close to 13-year highs. The biggest gains were noted in current conditions sub-index, that increased from 113.2 to 115.2 points which are the highest level since 2000 and it is close to all-time high level as well. The other sub-index that surged higher was expectations index that logged an increase from 86.5 to 86.9 points. In conclusion, the sentiment among the US customers is soaring, and the best guess for a reason behind it is the healthy labor market, steady wages and a moderate inflation levels.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market conditions are heavily oversold, but it looks like the target for the bears is at the level of 61%Fibo at 107.85. There is still no sign of a bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator. The next support is seen at the level of 108.70 and if broken, then the road to the level of 107.85 is open.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 14, 2017

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 14, 2017

Global macro overview for 14/04/2017

Global macro overview for 14/04/2017:

As widely expected, the Bank of Canada left the interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.50%. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that the BoC will maintain its neutral stance despite an upward revision of economic growth forecasts for this year. Governor Poloz sounded more hawkish than at the January policy meeting when policymakers discussed a possible rate cut. Nevertheless, the central bank stated that the economy continued to operate with excess capacity utilisation and both business investment and pay growth remained subdued. At the end of the statement, Poloz pointed out surging housing prices, especially in Toronto area, adding that the sharp price rise was not driven by any fundamentals. This would mean the beginning of real estate bubble in Canada. In conclusion, a little more hawkish statements from Governor Poloz might be the first clue, that sooner or later the Bank of Canada will follow the path of the US FED.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market bounced strongly from the level of 1.3223 and was capped after 120 pips rally at the level of 1.3339. Currently, the upward momentum is still strong and if the technical resistance at the level of 1.3339 - 1.3357 will be clearly violated, then the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.3455.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair dropped from the level of 0.7075 towards 0.6946. The trend is still set below the 0.7075 level. The resistance of the NZD/USD pair is seen at the levels of 0.7004 and 0.7075. It does mean that the first resistance and second one are seen at the levels of 0.7004 and 0.7075 respectively. The NZD/USD pair is still moving in a downtrend channel since a while. The price spot of 0.7004 remains a significant resistance zone.Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside, and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.7004, sell below 0.7004 with the first target at 0.6969 in order to test last week's bottom. Besides, it should be noted that support 1 is seen at the level of 0.6969 which coincides with the double bottom in the one-hour time frame. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6969, the market will decline further to 0.6825 in order to test the weekly support 2. However, the stop loss should be set above the level of 0.7075.
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Trading plan for 14/04/2017

Trading plan for 14/04/2017:

Friday brings a thin market with limited volatility in some closed markets like Australia or New Zealand. The stock market in Asia has been weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion sentiment is dominating among investors with the strongest JPY and weak AUD and NZD. Oil is trading steadily, gold is extending its gains.

On Friday 14th of April, the volatility in the foreign exchange market is heavily constrained due to the holiday break, and those markets that are working are also not interested in a significant change in the situation. Nevertheless, there are important data scheduled for release during the American trading session: Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 14/04/2017:

The Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index data are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect almost no change for them. The Retail Sales are expected at the level of 0.1%, just like a month ago and CPI is expected at the level 0.2%, unchanged from the reported month as well. If the data meet the expectations, it will mean that the inflationary pressures are currently stable in the US, so only a moderate amount of the interest rate hike should be expected.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the false breakout to the level of 1.0678, the market reversed and now is trading back in the range. The golden trend line seems to provide some dynamic support around the level of 1.0600. The next important support is seen at the level of 1.0569 and the next important resistance is seen at the level of 1.0705.

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Market snapshot: Gold is consolidating its gains

The price of Gold has hit and broken above the 127% Fibonacci Extension at the level of $1,282 and now is trading just below the golden trend line around the level of $1,287. The market conditions look overbought, but no bearish divergence has been formed yet. In a case of a further rally, the next target is 161%Fibo at the level of $1,306.

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Market snapshot: Crude Oil is in the corrective cycle

After hitting the technical resistance at the level of $53.78, the price of Crude Oil reversed towards the technical support at the level of $52.68. If the correction extends, then the next technical support will be seen at the level of $51.87. The multiple bearish divergences supports this view.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 14, 2017

Despite the strong decline lived during Wednesday's session following Trump's comments on the greenback, USDX recovered from the lows posted after the headlines were reported to the press and now it's consolidating around 100.54, where it's located the 200 SMA at H1 chart. If the index does a breakout above 100.60, then it can test the 101.00 psychological area.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.54 / 100.97

H1 chart's support levels: 100.14 / 99.79

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.14, take profit is at 99.79 and stop loss is at 100.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 14, 2017

The pair managed to retreat from 1.2573 following Trump's comments that deliver a strong selling wave to the US Dollar. A strong resistance can be seen around 1.2551 and eventually, GBP/USD may start to plummet towards the 200 SMA zone at H1 chart. Above that area, the pair could do a rebound in order to resume the bullish bias, targeting the 1.2658 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2551 / 1.2658

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2423 / 1.2333

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2551, take profit is at 1.2658 and stop loss is at 1.2443.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | AUD/USD | 13th April 2017

We take a nice detailed look at AUD/USD and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and the RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

Subscribe to me for more daily technical analysis!

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AUDJPY Fundamental Analysis April 13, 2017

AUD/JPY had an impulsive bullish counter move after weeks of a non-volatile bearish trend. The pair is still in the bearish trend, but it seems quite exhausted after a good amount of impulsive bearish pressure since the bounce off the trend line retest. Today AUD had positive high-impact economic events, which impacted the overall performance of this pair today. Today AUD Employment Change report was published with a positive result of 60.9k (vs. 20.3k expected), which in fact is a great jump from the previous value of 2.8k. Addition to the Employment Change, AUD Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 5.9% as expected and MI Inflation Expectations was 4.1% up, which previously was at 4.0%. On the other hand, today JPY had M2 Money Stock, which showed an increase of 4.3% (vs. 4.2% expected) and 30-y Bond Auction report was also released today with a slight change at 0.80|3.1 (vs. 0.82|3.1 previously). In comparison to JPY events, AUD had a bigger upper hand today, which helped the currency to nearly engulf two days of bearish price action. The Employment Change had a big impact on the Australian economy and AUD is expected to gain more strength in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. After the upbeat Employment Change report, the price has impulsively moved up today. Currently, the price is heading towards the dynamic resistance of 20 EMA; and if the price shows any kind of bullish rejection after retesting the 20 EMA as resistance, we will be looking forward to sell in this pair with a downward target at 81.10. On the other hand, if the price violates the 20 EMA and shows a daily close above the 20 EMA, then we will change our bearish bias to bullish and will target 86.15 as the upward target.

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