Analysis of Gold for September 01, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,328.85 in an ultra high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a wide spread bar in an ultra high volume (buying climax), which represents a strong sign of weakness. There is also a fake breakout of a resistance cluster, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies. The downawrd targets are set at the price of $1,315.00 and $1,305.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,333.45

R2: $1.344.60

R3: $1,360.20

Support levels:

S1: $1,306.65

S2: $1,291.00

S3: $1,279.95

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 1, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.

On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 1, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.The nearest Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if the current bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700.

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EUR/USD analysis for September 01, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1929 in an ultra high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1922, which is a sign of weakness. There is a buying climax and wide spread of the bar was fallowed by no demand bars, which is another strong sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1880 and 1.1830.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1940

R2: 1.1970

R3: 1.2030

Support levels:

S1: 1.1850

S2: 1.1790

S3: 1.1760

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 01, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading higher at the level of $4.784.90 driven on the news that the U.S. government has awarded a $100,000 grant to a group of researchers looking to apply blockchain to public library systems. The Institute of Museum and Library Services was founded in the mid-'90s, with the aim of providing federal support to libraries and museums. Public records show that officials with the agency are funding a new effort at the San Jose State University Research Foundation, which seeks to conduct preliminary research into how blockchain tech could help libraries manage digital rights, as well better assist their communities. Technical picture confirms that upward trend.

Trading recommendations:

According to the Daily time frame, the buyers are in control and the price went out of the 2-week trading range, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Besides, there is a successful re-test of the tranding range in a low volume, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $5.000. The price respected the 24-simple moving average and it confirmed that buyers are in control.

Support/Resistance

$4.465 – price action resistance

$4.745 – Intraday support

$5.000 – Round number – resistance

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 01, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is likely to rally intraday towards 1.1960/75 levels before reversing sharply lower again. An hourly chart has been depicted here which indicates an impulsive drop from 1.2070 levels earlier, labelled as 1 here. The most probable wave structure from here is a 3-wave counter trend a-b-c. The pair seems to have produced waves a and b, while wave c is still underway. It is expected to terminate around 1.1960/75 levels, which is converging with the fibonacci 0.618 levels as well. Strong resistance is seen at 1.2070 levels , while interim support is at 1.1730/40 levels respectively. The short-term strategy that suggested to go long yesterday is coming to a termination today. So, traders should be looking to re-enter short positions for a target lasting upto 1.1500 levels going forward.

Trading plan:

Conservative traders, please remain short with stop above 1.2070 levels targeting 1.1500 at least. Aggressive traders who went long should consider taking profits around 1.1960/70 levels and then turn short again.

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair is broadly into a counter trend since 1.2770 levels A-B-C as depicted here. It is probably into its last leg at the moment (wave C), which is expected to terminate through 1.3050 levels at least before reversing. The overall corrective rally is taking shape of a zigzag (5-3-5) structure, which is into its last wave C expected to sub divide into 5 waves. Please note that waves i and ii within wave C look to be already produced and a wave iii rally is expected to accelerate higher from here. Besides, note that wave B terminated into fibonacci 0.618 support yesterday and bounced sharply higher. Furthermore, please note that the overall down trend is expected to resume from 1.3050/70 levels (expected to be wave C termination). Interim resistance is seen at 1.2975 levels while interim support is at 1.2850 levels for now.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for a larger downtrend target at 1.2600 and lower with stop at 1.3270 levels. Aggressive traders who went long yesterday, please look to turn lower again around 1.3050 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD strength today after NFP numbers out at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Bitcoin analysis for 01/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 01/09/2017:

One of the biggest advantages of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, anonymous trading, has been criticized recently by Australian government's representative. According to Australian Justice Minister Michael Keenan, "Bitcoin, which can be traded anonymously and is as good as cash, is traded now on most significant international exchanges". This is the main reason for Keenan why Bitcoin exchanges assist in facilitating criminal activities: they lack transparency regarding transactions and encryption. Australian government plans to introduce new legislation that will make cryptocurrencies and altcoins submit to the same disclosure laws as banks and the more traditional exchanges. The main reason behind introducing this new law bill is a substantial loss of Australian budget due to illegal practices made by organized crime in Australia. According to the recent study conducted by Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC), the illegal and non-regulated practices cost the country over $28.34 billion annually. Will the Australia be the first country in the world to regulate the cryptocurrencies? We will soon find out.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is trading around all-time highs at the level of $4,783, but according to the Elliott wave theory principle, the up move might soon be terminated as the fifth wave is near completion. The price is moving inside of a possible Ending Diagonal pattern and will likely hit the $5,000 level before any meaningful correction will occur. In that case, the immediate technical support is seen at the level of $4,464.The growing bearish divergence and overbought market conditions support this view. On the larger time frames, the uptrend continues and only a clear, visible violation of the technical support at the level of $3.584 might change the bullish point of view.

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Global macro overview for 01/09/2017

Global macro overview for 01/09/2017:

The recent Canadian GDP data has beaten market expectations. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized data was better than an expected 3.7% rise because GDP showed the 4.5% expansion. Moreover, on a monthly basis, Canadian GDP rose 0.3% for June following a 0.6% increase for May which was again above consensus of a 0.1% gain for the month. It was the eighth successive quarterly gain. The biggest expansion was noted in goods-producing industries that rose 0.7% to give 7.7% year-on-year growth. The construction sector rose 2.0% together with retail sales. The biggest contraction was noted in oil and gas sector and wholesale sales.

This kind of data will likely make the Bank of Canada confident in the growth outlook, but the uncertainties are growing. The biggest concerns are related to exports, especially with a stronger Canadian Dollar. Moreover, the NAFTA negotiations also a complicating factor as Trump's administration is threating to cancel the agreement. On the other hand, the domestic concerns are most visibly related to housing sector which could have a wider impact on the economy if there is a sustained slowdown. Any negative developments this parts of the economic sectors will likely lead to further appreciation of the Canadian Dollar, which might prevent the Bank of Canada from hiking the interest rates again this year.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bulls have tried to regain the control over the market, but as soon as the market went into overbought territory, the down trend has resumed. Currently, the price is testing the technical support at the level of 1.2456 again (fifth time). In a case of a breakout, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2411 and 1.2380.

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Global macro overview for 01/09/2017

Global macro overview for 01/09/2017:

At the beginning of the week, in the shadow of US job market data anticipation, the third round of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and Eurozone has begun. After a week of this process, the negotiations have reached a low point. The officials from the UK's Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) have stated that their European counterparts do not have skills to negotiate effectively. The biggest problem for the UK negotiation team, lead by Brexit Secretary David Davis, is the rigid template of negotiations instead of a more loose framework. The consequence is a deadlock in terms of a proper negotiating process that might have significant consequences in the future. Officials seem to have downgraded the definition of "progress" to simply meaning that issues have been discussed and better understood by both sides. The real progress on any of the key separation issues - the Northern Irish border, citizens' rights and the financial settlement - appears almost entirely absent and has not been discussed.

Current Eurozone negotiations scheme allows for only four days of negotiations in a month, so with the current pace of talks, the key issues will likely not be achieved by a key summit of EU leaders in late October. Article 50 precisely stated that the UK must leave the EU by March 2019 by choosing so called soft-Brexit or hard-Brexith path. The longer the time of negotiations, the shorter the timetable for the UK to set in order the negotiation issues and the bigger the uncertainty at the financial markerts (which markets do not like at all). The British Pound might be greatly affected across the board once the negotiations will enter the serious phase too late.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the dip below the 61%Fibo at the level of 1.2847, the market quickly recovered, but the bull camp was too weak to take back the control over the market again. The price was capped at the level of 38%Fibo at 1.2961 and then reversed back into the congestion zone. Another breakout below the golden trend line will likely lead to test the recent local low test at the level of 1.2772.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 01, 2017

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 01, 2017

Trading plan for 01/09/2017

Trading plan for 01/09/2017:

The financial markets across the globe are waiting for the NFP Payrolls data today, so the overnight developments were very limited. Among the major currencies, the changes are minor with the best CAD performance after impressive GDP data from yesterday. At the other end is SEK and CHF. The stock market extends positive sentiment from the US and Europe.

On Friday 1st of September, the main event in the economic calendar is, of course, NFP Payrolls release during the beginning of the US session. Nevertheless, before that, a series of Manufacturing PMI's from across the Eurozone will be released during the London session (the UK PMI will be presented as well). The US job market data are scheduled for release as usual at 12:30 pm GMT: Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, and Participation Rate data will all be released at once.

US Dollar Index analysis for 01/09/2017:

The US job market has been performing at a top level for some time now. Nonfarm payrolls rose 209k in July following a 231k gain in June and a 145k increase in May. That leaves the average monthly gain for 2017 at 184k, broadly in line with that of 2016. The market participants expect the August NFP figure to be released at the level of 180k, but due to the very strong ADP reading from two days ago (237k vs. 185k) the data might easily beat the expectations. Given the fact, that US job market is now 'past' full employment, this is a very strong pace of job growth which should begin to ease soon. On the other hand, the vast majority of global investors is not paying that much attention to the NFP figures itself but is focusing on wages growth. The main problem investors see in the assessment of the Fed's monetary policy (and the US outlook) is the weakening CPI inflation that is not supported by wage pressure. The post-recession salary peak growth at 2.9% fell in December 2016 and since then the rise in nominal wage has been slowing. Disappointment would translate into a lower valuation of the probability of a Fed interest rate hike in December which now is at the 40% according to CME Group FedWatch Tool.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has failed to break out above the golden trend line around the level of 93.30 and fell towards the nearest technical support at the level of 92.54. Todays NFP data might have an important impact on the market participants' behavior. We would expect, that data in line with the consensus to be inadequate to stop the market from closing long positions in USD built in the last dozen or so hours. On the other hand, way better than expected data would immediately make the price to break through the trend line and hit the technical resistance at the level of 94.16. If the data disappoints, then the downside reaction towards the recent lows is unavoidable.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY bounces from support

The price of USD/JPY is likely to make a return to the upper band of consolidation zone around 109.75, which is supported by the 38%Fibo retracement. It is, therefore, possible to return to the uptrend and a resumption of resistance at the level of 111.00. Break out above this resistance will be a confirmation of a return to the upward trend. In this case, another resistance should be sought at 112.19. If the level of 109.75 is violated, then the price might fall to the level of 108.60, which earlier prevented the decline several times.

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Market Snapshot: Gold fails again at 127% Fibo

The price of Gold had been rejected again from the level of $1,321, which is 127%Fibo Extension of the previous swing down. The immediate support is seen at the level of $1,308 and $1300, but any violation of the $1,300 round number will result in much deeper correction towards the level of $1,280.

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Trading plan 01/09/2017

Trading plan 01/09/2017

The overall picture: The market is ready to organize its movement based on nonfarm payrolls data.

The focus is on US employment data at 12.30 PM London Time.

The previous value is +209, 000 and the forecast is +180, 000 (this is not our forecast, but the consensus forecast of most known analysts).

It should be noted that just two days ago, on August 30, a report from a private company ADP showed a much higher result for August, +237, 000, but we do not see a revision of the general forecast.

It would be worthwhile to expect that non farms will go far ahead of the forecast, at +235, 000.

This would lead to a new strong growth of the dollar - against the euro and the pound.

It is also noted that at 2:00 PM London time the report on the ISM industrial index for the US will be released - according to the forecast, no significant change is expected in comparison with the previous month.

Thus, the markets are waiting for data at 12.30 PM London Time.

EURUSD

There are certain levels for entering the breakout:

Upward 1.1925.

Downward 1.1820.

Stop of 45 points (4-mark).

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 1, 2017

The Dollar index has broken through short-term support and got rejected off the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud resistance. This bounce could very well be over and we should have confirmation after today's NFP announcement. I believe the downside is not over for the Dollar index.

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Price is below the tenkan-sen and the Kumo (cloud) on the 4-hour chart. Support is at 92.50. If broken, the index could be starting the next big leg down towards 90.50. On the other hand a break above 93.20 could signal a bigger bounce towards 94 or higher.

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On a daily basis, price remains inside the bearish channel and yesterday's candle got rejected at the kijun-sen and made a reversal candle pattern and closed below the kijun-sen. In order for this reversal candle to have effect, we need to see another red candle today and most preferably a close below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). If that happens, we should see the Dollar index near 90.50. If we break to new short-term highs, we should see the 94 level being tested.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 1, 2017

Gold price is retesting its highs. Short-term support is being held, price continues to trade inside the bullish daily channel, Ichimoku indicators still favor the bullish scenario.

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Gold price has reversed off the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price is testing recent highs at $1,325. Support is at $1,310. If broken, we should expect price to break below $1,300 and move towards $1,295-90.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Gold price is above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators on the daily chart. Price is inside the bullish channel. Daily support is at $1,300. A daily close below $1,300 could confirm a bigger correction towards $1,250-$1,280 area. Longer-term we remain bullish.

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The dollar went into a counterattack

Releases of data on European inflation and US employment and GDP showed what investors are now paying more attention to. The recovery in consumer prices in Germany to 1.8% and in the eurozone to 1.5% in August could not support the bulls in EUR/USD against the backdrop of the acceleration of the US economy in the second quarter to 3% and the positive dynamics of employment in the private sector shown by the ADP report. The main currency pair lost more than two figures and returned to the levels from which it started, listening to the intense speeches of Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. Certainly it was not without locking in profits on long positions, although it should not be ruled out that ECB will intervene if the currency went to the above the level of 1.2. Who can now confirm or deny this?

Dynamics of European inflation

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Source: Financial Times.

Investors' fears that Mario Draghi, on behalf of the Governing Council, will express concern about the strengthening of the euro, putting a barrier on the path of the EUR/USD to the north. In my opinion, this is not to be feared. The growth of consumer confidence in the eurozone to a 16-year peak, the index of economic optimism - up to a 10-year high, coupled with a positive GDP and inflation dynamics make it possible to consider the possibility of declaring the start of the QE exit process already in September. Currently, the market expects to receive information about the discussion on this topic, and expects to to see the signal in October. The ECB can pleasantly surprise the "bulls" in the main currency pair much earlier.

Moreover, the latest study of the Bundesbank once again highlighted the problems of Germany's banking system: ultra-soft monetary policy and low rates allow banks to forecast a 9% decrease in profits and 16% in revenues over the next five years. In 2015, according to the latest figure, the figure was 25%. However, the head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, does not see the need for the extension of QE and is ready to tolerate low inflation. Most likely, it will not be too long for this to be necessary: consumer prices in Germany in August rose by 1.8% y / y.

The counter-arguments of the dollar do not look very convincing. While for the last 7 months the actual data on non-farm payrolls have surpassed the forecasts, August is an extremely dangerous month for the indicator. Not once in the past 6 years the initial report did not justify the estimates of Bloomberg experts, although in most cases it was revised upwards in the future. Negative overestimation can happen if hurricane "Harvey" is taken into account. According to Goldman Sachs, it will take 0.2 pp from the US GDP in the third quarter due to, among other things, unemployment growth.

The slowdown of the US economy from July to September, the uncertainty about the tax reform and the ceiling of the national debt will continue to put pressure on the USD index, helping to restore the uptrend in EUR/USD.

Technically, to develop a correction for the "bears", it is necessary to break through the support at 1.185 and the lower limit of the upward trading channel. In this case, the risks of activation of the "Shark" pattern with a target of 1.139 will increase. Failure, on the contrary, will help restore the "bullish" trend and continue the rally in the direction of 1.215.

EUR / USD, daily chart

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 1, 2017

Bitcoin has recently broken above the resistance of the range 4386.80 level with a daily close. Bitcoin has been quite impulsive in nature this month which made currency gain over $2000. The impulsive bullish pressure took the price towards 4765.00 area from where the price is currently showing some bearish evidence in the market. Currently, the price is expected to reach 4386.80 level to retest it as a support where Tenkan Sen is also found to be supporting the price before it climbs up higher with a recent target towards 4500.00 resistance level in the coming days. The pair has been quite reactive to the dynamic level of 20 EMA which did signal the non-volatile movement so far and as the price remains above the 20 EMA in the coming days the bullish strength is expected to be unchanged in the coming days. Currently, it is also expected that the price movement will be quite corrective and slower in the coming days in comparison to the impulsive bullish pressure observed in August, which will help traders to find proper entries from the retracement from certain support levels in the market.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 1, 2017

NZD/USD has been dominated by bears in a nonvolatile manner since the bounce from 0.7550 resistance area. NZD has been quite negative with the reports recently whereas USD has been quite positive and showing consistent growth in the economic reports. Today NZD Overseas Trade Index report was published with worse value at 1.5% from the previous value of 3.9% which was expected to be at 3.5% at least. The worse report did put the currency in more pressure against USD today whereas high impact USD economic reports are going to be published. Today USD Average Earning Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease at 180k from the previous figure of 209k, Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3% and ISM Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have slight increase to 56.5 from the previous figure of 56.3. To sum up, today a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the pair whereas USD is expected to gain more strength over NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been quite loyal to the dynamic level of 20 EMA rejecting the bulls recently. Currently, the price is expected to be bearish in nature with a target towards 0.6940-0.7050 support area. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 01, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair opened below the level of 0.7202 (daily pivot point). The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.7202 to the bottom around 0.7142. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7202 followed by 0.7239, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7100. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.7142. So it will be good to sell at 0.7142 with the first target of 0.7100. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.7064 (support 2). The strong daily support is seen at the 0.7064 level, which represents a new double bottom on the H1 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to trade between 0.7202 and 0.7064 in coming hours. The price area of 0.7202 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.7202 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.7239, then a stop loss should be set at the price of 0.7270.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 1, 2017

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EUR/NZD - Weekly

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EUR/NZD - Hourly

Wave summary;

Our long-term outlook continues to point higher towards the diamond formation target at 1.9900.

Short-term, we are looking for a minor correction close to 1.6171 from where the next rally higher to 1.6636 and 1.6969. A break below minor support at 1.6451 confirms the expected corrective decline closer to 1.6171.

R : 1.6710

R2: 1.6632

R1: 1.6634

Pivot: 1.6600

S1: 1.6540

S2: 1.6435

S3: 1.6348

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR buying opportunity in the 1.6171 - 1.6348 area.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 01, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9558 and 0.9597. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. Right now, the price is seen at the 0.9597 level. The USD/CHF pair probably continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9597. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9597 to a top around 0.9670. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9693 followed by 0.9725, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9597 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9639 and 0.9725; so we expect a range of 86 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9693. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9597 with the first target at 0.9693 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.9725. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.9725 is a good place to take profit because it will form a major resistance today. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.9558, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 1, 2017

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EUR/JPY - Weekly

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EUR/JPY - 4 Hourly

Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside towards 137.36 to complete wave D of the huge triangle consolidation, that has been building since July 2012. This [B]-wave triangle should ultimately break higher for a rally to above 170.00.

Short-term, we are looking for support at 130.43 for the next push higher towards 134.80 and then 137.36.

R3: 134.68

R2: 132.65

R1: 131.40

Pivot: 131.00

S1: 130.85

S2: 130.42

S3: 129.64

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.50 with stop placed at 129.55. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 130.45 and use the same stop at 129.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for September 1, 2017

USD/CHF has been residing inside a range of 0.9440 to 0.9770 where it has been correcting and volatile for a while now. CHF had been quite dominant over USD which recently is fading away due to positive USD economic reports are published. Today is a very important day for USD as a number of high impacts economic reports are going to be published. Today USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change report is also expected to decrease to 180k from 209k, Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3% and ISM Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have slight increase to 56.5 from the previous figure of 56.3. Though all the forecasts of USD economic reports today are quite downward but any better than the expected result will lead to further gain on the USD side for the coming days. On the CHF side, today Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 60.4 from 60.9 and Retail Sales report is expected to increase to 1.7% from the previous value of 1.5%. To sum up, today is the day for USD where high impact events are going to be published whereas CHF economic reports are expected to have minimal impact on the market. If the USD reports come positive then USD is expected to gain further against CHF breaking the range upwards.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently bouncing between the range of 0.9440 to 0.9770 area. Inside the range, a positive divergence is found which shows a probability of bullish move inside the range with a breakout formation. Currently, as of divergence, we will be looking forward to buying but with a daily bullish close to signal the authenticity of the positive divergence setup. As the price remains above the 0.9440 the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 1, 2017

EUR/USD: After testing the resistance line at 1.2050, the price has pulled back by 190 pips, now below the resistance line at 1.1950. Another downwards movement of 150 pips to the downside would completely render the bullish bias invalid; whereas a rally from here would help restore the recent bullishness in the market. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is now rising from the overbought region.

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USD/CHF: The situation on the USD/CHF is currently dicey, the price went seriously upwards this week, but it could not lead to a clean bullish bias because it reversed as soon as it hit the resistance level at 0.9650. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9700 would help establish a bullish signal; while a movement below the support level at 0.9500 would bring about a new lease of a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is still consolidating. However, a closer look at the market reveals a bull's intent, to push the price to the upside. The distribution territories at 1.2950 and 1.3000 would be the next targets. The possibility of a bullish breakout is currently strong, owing to what price is doing right now.

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USD/JPY: A bullish signal was generated on the USD/JPY this week. After the supply level at 110.50 was tested, price pulled back a bit. However, the bias on the market remains bullish, and it is expected that the market would rise further here, reaching the supply level at 110.50 again, and then targeting another supply level at 111.50.

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EUR/JPY: Despite the ongoing short-term consolidation, the EUR/JPY cross is still able to maintain the bullish signal on it. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further upwards movement is expected. The next targets are the supply zones at 131.50 and 132.00.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for September 1, 2017

AUD/USD is currently struggling to make a directional impulsive move on either side whereas bulls are expected to be the dominant party in the coming days. After the interest rate hike of AUD, the currency has been quite impulsive with its gains which affected the USD and made it lose some grounds in the process. Today AUD AIG Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to have a better figure published from the previous figure of 56.0 and Commodity Price is also expected to rise as of the recent inflation decision, which previously was at 17.1%. On the other hand, today is a very important day for USD as a respectable number of high impact economic reports are going to be published today. Today USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected to decrease to 180k from the previous value of 209k, Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.3% and ISM Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have slight increase to 56.5 from the previous figure of 56.3. To sum up, the pair is expected to be very volatile due to high impact events of USD to be published today which will provide an upcoming directional signal to trade with. Any worse outcome of USD high impact economic reports will lead to further weakness of USD and strengthening of AUD for further gains in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently correcting above the support area of 0.7750-0.7840 and supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. As the price remains above the support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 0.8050 resistance level.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for August 31, 2017

EUR/GBP has recently bounced off the resistance level of 0.9270 after climbing higher with a non-volatile bullish trend. EUR has been quite dominant against GBP earlier but currently, GBP seems to gain some grounds. Today EUR German Retail Sales report was published with a negative value at -1.2% from the previous value of 1.3% which was expected to be at -0.5%, French Prelim CPI report was published as expected at 0.5% from the previous value of -0.3%, German Unemployment Change report was published at -5k from the previous figure of -9k which was expected to be at -6k, CPI Flash Estimate report was published with an increase to 1.5% from the previous value of 1.3% which was expected to be at 1.4%, Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published with an unchanged value at 1.2% as expected and EUR Unemployment Rate report was published with unchanged value as expected at 9.1%. On the other hand, today GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence report was published better at -10 from the previous higher deficit figure of -12 which was expected to show greater deficit of -13 and MPC Member Saunder had speech on nation's interest rates and future monetary policy which resulted to be hawkish in nature and helped in the gains of GBP over EUR today. To sum up, EUR had been quite dominant with the bullish trend which is currently expected to come to an end as GBP has been quite positive with the recent economic reports which are expected to strengthen the gains further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently rejected off the resistance level of 0.9270 which has proved to be one of the most important levels to push the price lower earlier. As of the recent impulsive bearish pressure after the nonvolatile bullish trend in place, it is currently expected to show some sustainable bearish move with a target towards 0.9050 support level in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 01, 2017

The index remains strong in the recovery phase that has entered and the 200 SMA on the H1 chart is currently challenged. If it manages to overcome that area, we should expect a rally to test the August 17th highs around 94.04. To the downside, the nearest support is placed at the 92.34 level, at which a breakout should open the doors for more weakness.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 92.34 / 91.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.34, take profit is at 91.67 and stop loss is at 93.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 01, 2017

The pair still remains in a corrective mode since August 29 and looks forward to testing the support level of 1.2842. Around that area, buyers could appear for a rebound that make a breakout of the latest swing high and if that happens, we expect the price to reach the resistance zone of 1.3013, which should also strengthen the bullish scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2958 / 1.3013

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2842 / 1.2761

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2958, take profit is at 1.3013 and stop loss is at 1.2903.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com