Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 9, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1520.

On the other hand, recent signs of bullish rejection were expressed around the lower limit of the mentioned consolidation range (1.1520). Hence, another bullish movement towards 1.1750 should be expected.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for August 9, 2018

NZD/USD is currently quite impulsive with the bearish momentum which is expected to lead the price towards 0.65 in the coming days. Despite the unchanged economic reports, the dovish nature of the Monetary Policy and Rate statement made NZD lose certain momentum against USD which is expected to lead to further weakness in the process.

Today NZD Official Cash Rate report was published unchanged at 1.75% which did impact the Rate Statement outcome leading to a certain sentiment shift in the market leading to further weakness of NZD against USD in the process. As of the Governor Adrian Orr's statement today at RBNZ Press Conference, the rate is expected to be unchanged for longer which is done for the stronger economic growth but the market did not quite respond to it positively which is indeed an alarm for the NZD buyers to shift their bias.

On the other hand, Ahead of the CPI report to be published tomorrow, today PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Core PPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Unemployment Claims is expected to increase with negative impact to 220k from the previous figure of 218k and Final Wholesale Inventories is expected to be unchanged at 0.0%.

As of the current scenario, NZD is expected lose further momentum against USD gradually in the coming days as of the recent dovish statement from the RBNZ officials about the upcoming plans for the economy suggested. Though the real time impact was quite large but it is expected to take a certain amount of time to push the NZD weakness to a certain peak before USD can actually push it more impulsively in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The Ichimoku Context is suggesting the price should push much lower whereas certain bullish intervention is also expected as the price proceeds much lower towards 0.65 support area in the future. As of the current structure, the price is expected to push a bit higher towards 0.6720 area where the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line will meet the price for the confluence to push further lower in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.6850 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.65

RESISTANCE: 0.6720, 0.6850

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE AND NON-VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for August 9, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile between the range of 0.73 to 0.75 area for a few weeks now. AUD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain momentum in the process while USD is struggling with recent economic reports and Trade War situations.

AUD has been quite mixed with the economic reports this week while the decrease in certain results proved much worst for the currency gains. This week, AUD Home Loans report was published with a decrease in negative value of -1.1% from the previous positive value of 1.0% which was expected to be at 0.1%. Ahead of the RBA Monetary Policy Statement on Friday, AUD is expected to be quite volatile with the upcoming gains in the process.

On the USD side, today PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Core PPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Unemployment Claims is expected to increase with negative impact to 220k from the previous figure of 218k and Final Wholesale Inventories is expected to be unchanged at 0.0%.

As of the current scenario, USD may lead the process if it manages to publish better than expected result for the upcoming high impact economic reports whereas AUD Monetary Policy is also expected to inject certain volatility in the market as well. To sum up, if USD reports are published better than expected further gains on the USD side is expected which is more likely for the current market sentiment and fundamentals.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.7450-0.7500 resistance area from where it is expected to push lower as of the recent bearish impulsive pressure being observed in the market currently. MACD having no divergence in the process against the momentum is expected to support the bearish pressure in the pair for the coming days. As the price remains below 0.75 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards the support area of 0.7300 area.

SUPPORT: 0.7300

RESISTANCE: 0.7450-0.7500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for August 09, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found selling climax in the background, which signs that strength. I also found a successful testing of supply on low volume, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.479 and at the price of $6.722.

Support/Resistance

$6.322 – Intraday resistance

$6.092– Intraday support

$6.479 – Objective target 1

$6.722 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Control zones GBP/USD 09.08.18

The pair continues to form a downward medium-term model. Yesterday, there was a breakdown and consolidation below the weekly KZ of 1.2956-1.2930 which allows us to consider the next reduction target.

The downward movement prevails on the instrument, so it makes no sense to look for reversal options. The most profitable tactic is searching favorable prices for selling the instrument. The first correction zone is the NKZ 1/4 1.2923-1.2917, formed from the yesterday's low. If the pair tests the specified zone, then sales with a stop of 15-20 points are possible. The potential profit will be 120 points, which makes the short position profitable.

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The most profitable prices for the selling the instrument are located within the limits of the NKZ 1/2 1.2994-1.2981. Testing this zone is unlikely in the next 24 hours, therefore this plan can be extended for 2-3 days.

To cancel the downward movement, it will require the absorption of yesterday's decline and the closing of the US session above the opening of trading area. This will also consider the formation of a correctional flat-like movement, where there will still be initial sales from significant resistance levels. It is unprofitable to consider purchases from current marks, since the probability the reversal model formation is 30%, and the probability of the NKZ 1/2 test is 1.2802-1.2790 is 70%.

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Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone is formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone is formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold analysis for August 09, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,211.52. According to the M15 time frame, I found the price got no power to sustain below the today's pivot ($1,21.67), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a bullish cross on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,216.93 and at the price of $1,220.72.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,217.10

R2: $1,220.93

R3: $1,226.45

Support levels:

S1: $1,207.45

S2: $1,202.20

S3: $1,198.38

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/JPY analysis for August 09, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/JPY has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 142.32. According to the M15 time – frame and using the fx correlator (strength indicator), I found the GBP is the strongest intraday currency and that JPY is one of the weakest currencies. I also found a rejection of the pivot support 1 at the price of 142.34 and fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 142.70, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of143.85, 144.20 and at the price of 144.80.

Resistance levels:

R1: 143.89

R2: 144.80

R3: 145.44

Support levels:

S1: 142.34

S2: 141.75

S3: 140.79

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Trading plan for the American session August 8 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The buyers try to keep the pair above the support level of 1.1585. However, its repeated test can lead to a new wave of sales of euro. In this case, to return to long positions is best to rebound from the support level of 1.1556. In the event of a false breakdown at 1.1585, we can expect a return of demand for the euro and a renewal of the morning resistance around 1.1623, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The sellers excellently worked the morning resistance level of 1.1630, which I paid attention to in my review, which led to a quick sell-out to the area of 1.1585. A repeat test of this support will be another signal to the euro sales in order to update a larger level of 1.1556, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the euro rises in the second half of the day, you can sell again for a rebound from 1.1623.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

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Fractal analysis of GOLD on August 9

Forecast for August 9:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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For Gold, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1224.43, 1219.21, 1214.61, 1211.58, 1206.05, 1202.29, 1197.59 and 1194.35. Here, after the lifting of the upward structure of August 3, we follow the formation of the local structure of August 3. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 1206.05, in this case, the target is 1202.29, near this level is the consolidation. The breakdown of the level 1202.00 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement, here the target is 1197.59, in the corridor 1197.59 - 1194.34 consolidation, and hence the probability of a turn in correction is high.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1211.58 - 1214.61, the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction, here the target is 1219.21, this level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1211.60 Take profit: 1214.20

Buy: 1215.00 Take profit: 1219.00

Sell: 1206.00 Take profit: 1203.00

Sell: 1202.00 Take profit: 1198.00

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Control zones of EUR / USD as of August 9, 2018

Last week, the pair is traded between two control zones, which determines the accumulation range. Yesterday, there was a test of NCP 1/2 1.1631-.1622, which led to an increase in supply and keeping prices below the zone.

Yesterday's test of NCP 1/2 1.1631-1.1622 allowed to open a short position. The first goal of continuing the downward movement will be the minimum of August, formed on Monday. If the pair can consolidate below this minimum, then further decline will continue to NCP 1/2 1.1455-1.1446, where sales fixation will be required. As long as the pair trades lower than NCP 1/2 1.1631-1.1622, the downward movement remains impulsive, which determines the priority of termination within a day.

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Do not forget that on Wednesday, the pattern of absorption was formed, which indicates a high probability of continuing the formation of the medium-term accumulation zone or the formation of a new upward momentum.

To undo a downward model, a breakdown and fastening above the NCP 1/2 of 1.1631-1.1622 is required. This will open the way for the growth of the pair to the weekly short-term fault of 1.1732-1.1713. Purchases will come to the forefront, which will make it possible to search for profitable prices tomorrow. This model will allow continuing the formation of the medium-term accumulation zone, the upper limit of which is at the July maximum. Today, purchases will be possible only after the close of the American session above the level of 1.1631.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Trading plan for the US session on August 8 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The buyers were unable to return to the resistance level of 1.2959, which led to the sale of the pound. Considering long positions in the current situation is best after returning and consolidating above the resistance of 1.2916, which could lead to a GBP / USD rise again in the area of the day's highs to 1.2959, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a further drop in the pound, you can buy for a rebound from 1.2867.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The sellers fulfilled the sell signal from the level of 1.2959 and the breakdown at 1.2922, which I paid attention to in my morning review. While the trade is below 1.2916, the pressure on the pound will remain, which is likely to lead to a new wave of sales with an exit for the weekly low in the area of 1.2867 and 1.2815, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of growth above 1.2916 in the afternoon, you can sell the pound for a rebound from 1.2959.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bears for the euro and the pound are coming back?

Today, the British pound and the euro resumed the decline after a slight upward correction, which was observed earlier this week. The absence of important fundamental statistics raises again the talk in the markets about the next interest rate hike in the US, and the actions of the White House administration, aimed at tightening trade relations with a number of countries, including China, fright potential investors into risky assets.

Also, the speech of Italian Minister of Economy today did not inspire traders who expected a more positive outlook.

According to Giovanni Tria, the economy will slow down next year but the government will continue to adhere to its fiscal obligations. According to forecast, the growth of gross domestic product this year is unlikely to exceed the 1.2% level, and will be in the region of 1% -1.1% in the next year. Prior to this, the Italian government expected an increase of 1.5% this year and 1.4% respectively in the following.

Experts expect that Italy's budget deficit next year will be 1.2% against 0.8%, as it was previously thought.

As for the technical picture, as expected, the euro/dollar were unable to get above the 1.1630 level, which led to the wave resumption of selling risky assets. The main target remains the support area of 1.1560 below, which the euro will fall to monthly lows in the 1.1530 area. Despite this, it's too early to panic the EUR/USD buyers. It is possible that the support area 1.1580 will be the lower boundary of the new uplink, but it is necessary to close the trading day above this level.

The British pound is also down against the US dollar amid the growing likelihood of Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement, which scares off potential investors and traders. Be reminded that most recently, the government did not rule out such an opportunity for the Brexit outcome.

Commodity currencies are also falling against the US dollar. If the Australian dollar stayed at weekly highs at the beginning of the day after the statements of the Reserve Bank of Australia, then it will begin to decline following other world currencies.

Philip Lowe stated that the next change in interest rates is likely to be their increase, and the percentage of rate increase will depend on the falling rate on unemployment and inflation. However, the manager did not mention more specific terms of the increase.

According to the RBA head, the GDP growth forecasts have changed little. The economy is expected to increase by 3% this year and by 3% in 2019.

The RBA administrator also noted that the latest inflation data are in line with the forecasts, and there is no need to wait for inflation at 2.5% to raise rates.

In the second half of the day, data on US crude oil reserves are expected to put additional pressure on commodity currencies.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 8th of August. Results of the day. The pound sterling did not even manage to adjust against the dollar.

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 49p - 115p - 68p - 93p - 50p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 75p (82p).

The currency pair GBP / USD on Wednesday, August 8, after a two-day marking in one place, resumed the fall, breaking the first support level of 1.2927. At the American trading session, the price worked out the second support level of 1.2852 and rebounded from it. Thus, in the next few hours, the pair still has a chance to start a correction. The reasons for the resumption of the downward movement in the pair lie in the introduction of new trade restrictions for China by the States. In addition, the US leader Donald Trump once again threatened the PRC to impose duties on all exports from this country. In dollar terms, this amount is $ 500 billion. It was on these news that the US dollar began to appreciate again, as market participants continue to regard any new sanctions imposed by the US as a sign of their leader's strength and expect positive effects for the country's economy. We still believe that even though the US dollar, in any case, looks now much stronger than the pound, as in Great Britain there remains a huge number of unresolved problems, the positive effect of the trade war for the national currency is a temporary phenomenon. Sooner or later, there will be negative consequences from trade restrictions and the US economy. From Great Britain, new interesting information on Brexit also arrived. If earlier, Theresa May accused the EU of dragging out negotiations on Brexit, but now she was convicted of wanting to postpone the negotiations until November. Theresa May expects Trump will continue to try to frustrate the G-20 summit, and this will be of great concern to the EU. So much to worry that they will want to close all questions as soon as possible on the exit of Britain from their composition. Thus, May's subtle calculation partly recognizes her inability to settle all Brexit questions honestly. On the other hand, the British prime minister is clearly heading towards his goal and is trying to keep falling popularity ratings.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair worked at 1.2852. Thus, an upward correction is now possible, which can be traded in small lots with the target of 1.2946, which is derived from the average volatility of the instrument in recent days.

Orders for sale can be opened after receiving a signal about the completion of the correction or in case of overcoming the level of 1.2852. In this case, the bears will again begin to attack the positions of the British pound with the targets of 1.2794 and 1.2730.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR / USD. 8th of August. Results of the day. States impose new duties on Chinese imports at $ 16 billion

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 43p - 86p - 51p - 41p - 57p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 56p (57p).

On Wednesday, August 8, the EUR / USD currency pair continued an upward correction at night trades. However, with the opening of the European trading session, the US dollar again began to be in demand. There are at least two reasons for this. First, the correction, as we wrote earlier, was purely technical in nature, since there have been no important macroeconomic publications and reports in recent days. Secondly, there was information that a new duty on Chinese goods for a total of $ 16 billion will start operating on August 23. As we have repeatedly said, traders (for now) interpret any escalation of the US-China conflict in favor of the US. Therefore, the American currency, after receiving such information, was completely expected to grow. Trump in his Twitter has already had time to rejoice in the fall of the Chinese market, while forgetting to mention that the US trade deficit last month increased. Thus, the first "bells" of the fact that the trade war will adversely affect not only China's economy, but also the States themselves, the market has received. Beijing, by the way, has enough instruments of influence on the American economy. At a minimum, China is the largest holder of US government securities. Furthermore. As one of the largest economies in the world, China can make a "move with a knight" and abandon dollar calculations. It should also be noted that Beijing introduces and will probably continue to respond in the future also with new sanctions on US imports. Thus, it is quite possible that Trump, who was accustomed to achieving the goals set by the attack, sooner or later can understand that his plan did not work here, and the trade balance deficit is growing. Proceeding from this, the chances that sooner or later the parties will still sit at the negotiating table is growing. But negotiations will be complex ...

Trading recommendations:

For the currency pair EUR / USD, the MACD indicator turned down, signaling the completion of the correction. Thus, now the short positions are again relevant with the target of 1.1536. Turning the MACD indicator to the top will indicate a new turn of correction and will serve as a signal for manual shortening of shorts.

Orders for purchase can be considered small lots, if the indicator MACD will turn up. In this case, the targets for long positions will be the levels of 1.1650 and 1.1689, and the bulls can try to develop their success.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR / USD. 8th of August. The trading system "Regression channels". Euro uses the given chance for correction

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

–°CI: 41.0625

On August 7, the currency pair EUR / USD was adjusted to the moving average line and even consolidated slightly above it. The calendar of macroeconomic events was completely empty yesterday. It will be the same today. But, as we see, traders use the absence of news as an excuse to fix profits on short positions. Near the moving average, a downward turn may occur, and the downtrend will resume. No news on the topic of trade war between the states and China. The only thing you can pay attention to is that Trump can hold a second meeting with Kim Jong-un and believes that the DPRK has not fulfilled all the necessary work on denuclearization. About lifting of sanctions from North Korea while speech too does not go. But this is all secondary information. There were no really important data in the last few days at the disposal of traders. Therefore, when making trade decisions, it remains to rely only on technical factors. Thus, turning the indicator of Heikin Ashi down when the price is lower than the moving average will be sufficient for the resumption of trading on a decline.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1597

S2 - 1.1536

S3 - 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1658

R2 = 1.1719

R3 = 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to be corrected. Removal from the moving or coloring of 1-2 bars in blue with a price below the removals will be a signal for new short positions with the goal of Murray level "1/8" - 1,1536.

Buy-positions are recommended to open with a target of 1,1658, as the bulls managed to overcome the moving average line. However, shorts should be opened with small lots and with a Stop Loss order, as the breakdown may be false.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for August 8. The pair was stuck near the level of 1.2925

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Analysis of wave counting:

In the course of trading on August 7, the currency pair GBP / USD did not change its exchange rate value and the whole day it traded near the 200.0% of Fibonacci level. A successful attempt to break this mark will suggest a further decline in quotations within the proposed wave 5, 3, downward trend section. An unsuccessful attempt can lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the achieved minimum and the construction, for example, of an internal correctional wave in the composition of wave 5, 3, or even to complete the construction of the entire wave 3. The downward corridor still supports the prospects of reducing the pair.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2925 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.2758 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains within the downtrend section of the trend. Now, it is possible to move the pair from the achieved lows within the correctional wave. However, even taking into account additions to the current wave counting, there is reason to expect the completion of the soon-to-be-constructed wave 3, a. I therefore recommend that, as yesterday, to resume selling the pair only after a successful attempt to break the level 1.2925, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci, with the objectives, located near the calculated level of 1.2758, which is equal to 261.8% of Fibonacci.

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Euro buyers need a break. Trump introduces additional duties

The European currency continues to gradually strengthen its positions in tandem with the US dollar against the backdrop of the upward correction that was needed after a serious decline in EUR / USD currency pair last week. The key level, on which the further trend will depend, is now the area of 1.1630, but more about this later.

Yesterday in the afternoon, the data released did not significantly affect the rate of the US dollar.

According to the report of the Federal Reserve System, consumer lending in the US in June this year continued to grow, which will support the American economy in the future.

Thus, unsecured consumer lending grew by 3.14% in June compared to June of the previous year. In monetary terms, the increase was 10.21 billion US dollars compared to the previous month. Economists predicted a loan growth of $ 15 billion. Renewable loans decreased by 0.21% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Loans that do not renew, mainly car loans and student loans, rose by 4.36%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the main task of the buyers today is a confident breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1630, from which it will be possible to count on the continuation of the upward correction and the reversal of the downward trend formed last week. Bovine targets will be levels of 1.1660 and 1.1700. In the case of intraday downward correction, buyers will show themselves only after the upgrade of the large support level 1.1580.

Yesterday it became known that the White House once again adopted trade restrictions on Chinese goods. So, the administration of Donald Trump has approved additional duties on Chinese imports of $ 16 billion. The new US import duty on Chinese imports will come into force on August 23 this year.

Meanwhile, today's report on China's trade balance showed how effective the US measures are. According to the data of the Main Customs Administration of China, the positive trade balance of China in July this year fell sharply, with a strong increase in imports.

So, the positive balance of foreign trade in July 2018 was 28.05 billion US dollars against 41.61 billion dollars in June, while economists expected that the surplus would amount to 39.10 billion dollars. Exports of goods in July increased by 12.2% compared to the same period last year, while economists expected that exports will increase by 10%.

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Import increased by 27.3% compared to the same period of the previous year, while economists expected growth of only 15.3%.

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Geopolitical risks against the US dollar

It is a logical consequence of the Federal Reserve's trend in normalization of the policy to strengthen the US dollar which is subject to new threats. The development of which can lead to serious changes in the foreign exchange market.

China

The trade war is becoming protracted. The volume of Chinese imports are subject to increase tariffs and has risen to 250 billion. Moreover, Trump unequivocally announced that he is ready to extend this practice to all imports from China if he does not accept American conditions.

China does not express such readiness. The retaliatory measures are taken on the volume of 110 billion US imports while the devaluation of the yuan continues, besides, China outlined a number of financial measures to support production. China does not intend to make any concessions because the US demands actually force the Chinese side to abandon the development strategy adopted at the last congress of the CPC, which is absolutely unacceptable.

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In the trade between China and the US, there is a clear imbalance in favor of China, which at first glance, creates advantages for the American side, but in order to protect the Chinese economy, it will consistently get rid of the dollar in external economic calculations.

Thus, in the long term, the US faces a serious threat of reducing the financing of the growth of the US public debt by China, and this threat is much stronger than the trade distortion, as it will lead to an intensification of the de-dollarization of the world economy.

European Union

On August 7, the European Union put in place regulations that annul any extraterritorial sanctions of the United States against Iran and explicitly prohibit European companies from fulfilling them. Immediately after the enactment of the regulation, European companies will have the right to remedy the damage from sanctions in court, and any court decisions in support of sanctions on the territory of the European Union are declared null and void.

This decision very clearly describes the situation that develops between the EU and the US but the European Union will not pay for the re-industrialization of the American economy and will not finance the growing hole in the US budget. The consequence of the adoption of this regulation could either be the US refusal to exert pressure on Iran, which is unlikely, or the escalation of tensions between Europe and the United States.

Cryptocurrency

On August 7, the US SEC commission postponed the decision on the application for approval of stock exchange investment funds tied to the price of bitcoin until September 30. This application was published in the Federal Register on July 2, and cryptornics were preparing for an ETF decision at an accelerated pace, allowing the creation of a mechanism for institutional investors to enter cryptology.

Why is it important? At the moment, there is no mechanism for the legal regulation of such funds, despite the huge interest in crypto-currencies. This restriction does not enable large investment funds to enter cryptology, which does not have the right to dispose of investors' money without an appropriate authorization mechanism.

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At the same time, the world's largest chief support banks are actively preparing for the fact that the cryptocurrencies will begin to expand into the sphere of world finance. After the legal base is prepared, it will determine that the crypto-currencies largely correspond to all the criteria of money - the speed of settlements, security, etc. A mechanism will appear that will make it possible to exclude the dollar from the sphere of interbank and interstate settlements, that is, the dollar will lose some of the functions of the dominant world currency.

Summarizing the foregoing, let us note that the world is preparing for the cardinal changes in the configuration of the world financial system at an accelerated pace. Trump's tax reform significantly reduced budget revenues that are for compensation, an attempt is made to shift part of the costs to the main US trading partners. This attempt with a high probability will give only a short-term effect as for the long term the effect will be reversed - the main global players will reduce the scope of the US dollar in their foreign trade activities.

In months of August and September, players will review the main criteria for predicting the demand for currencies. Instead of traditional parameters -such as employment, inflation and GDP growth rates, the trade balance- the budget deficit and the rate of growth of public debt will come to the forefront. If these parameters show negative dynamics, the trend for dollar growth will end regardless of the chosen rate of the Fed's monetary policy normalization.

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Trading plan for 09/08/2018

The dovish overtone of the RBNZ statement is the most interesting element of night trade. NZD is the biggest loser between the majors with the stability of the rest of the cross. Data on inflation from China fell above forecasts.

USD / JPY initially raised to 110.70 but managed to make up for declines and return to 111. AUD / USD is slightly higher at 0.7440 under the pressure of demand passing through AUD / NZD. EUR / USD is sitting at 1.1610.

Inflation in China in July surprised in a positive 0.1 pp. PPI amounted to 4.6% and CPI to 2.1%. These may be the seeds of inflationary pressures, which are positive for the economy, although USD / CNH first grew after data to 6.84, finally to calm down at 6.82, close to the reference level from Wednesday. Chinese Shanghai Composite is growing today by 2.0%on speculation about government support for technology companies. Hopes for strengthening infrastructural expenditures that would support industrial companies are also growing.Japanese Nikkei 225 loses 0.1% after a surprising slump in June machine orders (-8.8% m / m versus expected -1.0%).

On Thursday, the 9th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Unemployment Rate data from Switzerland, Housing starts and New Housing Price Index data from Canada and PPI data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 09/08/2018:

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of 1.1530 and now is testing the golden trend line from below around the level of 1.1620. Nevertheless, the momentum remains close to the neutral levels and the market conditions are now close to becoming overbought as well. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of .11627 and only if this level is violated, then the price might rally higher towards the level of 1.1719. The last support for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1774.

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Global macro overview for 09/08/2018

The global investors were not surprised by today's RBNZ decision on interest rates. As expected, it remained at 1.75%. However, the forecasts for next year have been reduced. By the end of 2019, the base rate is to be at 1.8% (previously expected 1.9%). This means that the rate hike path will be delayed until at least 2020.

What's more, the published statement shows that rates can be both raised and lowered. It all depends on the condition of the New Zealand economy and external threats. Economic growth has been moderate recently, should accelerate in the second half of the year. The weaker New Zealand Dollar and the strong boom of the global economy should improve export performance.

Low rates and the size of employment promote investments in the business. The unemployment rate should drop significantly. RBNZ is glad that there are signs of higher inflation. Government spending and investment also increased. The situation in construction and households looks good.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the decision was made, the NZD broke out of the horizontal consolidation to the downside and made a new local low at the level of 0.6666. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.6685 and only a sustained violation of this level would change the bias from bearish to bullish.

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Global macro overview for 09/08/2018

Trump's administration has presented a list of further goods from China, which it intends to cover with customs duties this month. However, the new episode of trade wars does not bring about the reaction of the market, which is systematically immune to this type of information.

The newly announced $ 16 billion worth of commodities is complementing $ 34 billion, which was subject to customs duties on July 6. The new package is to be subject to sanctions from August 23, but generally, it is not new news and therefore the market passes by it indifferently. Especially that the data released today from Chinese trade suggest a limited influence of trade wars. Exports in July increased stronger than expected (12.2% y / y, 10% expected), although sales directly to the US weakened. A big surprise was the import dynamics (27.3% YoY, 16.5%), despite the fact that imports of agricultural commodities were regulated, as the reduction of tariffs for car imports worked better than offsetting. Therefore, the thesis is confirmed that trade wars are a threat primarily in the minds of investors, entrepreneurs, and consumers, and if hard data do not indicate a breakdown, the global economy should be doing well.

The currency market does not show a lot of life, and besides, that the USD by the occasional adjustment of position is weaker (although at a very slow pace), it is not visible that investors are interested in changing the current sentiment.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The good sentiment prevails as the market is trading very close the all-time highs around the level of 286.58. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 284.44, but the market is positioned to break out through all time highs and made a new one soon. Only if the level of 279.48 is clearly violated the change of trend will be visible. Strong momentum support the bullish bias.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 09, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (0.6683). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.6705 to the bottom around 0.6661. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6705 followed by 0.6732, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.6661. Furthermore, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.6683. So it will be good to sell at 0.6683 with the first target of 0.6630. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.6602.

The strong daily support is seen at the 0.6602 level, which represents a new double bottom on the H1 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to trade between 0.6683 and 0.6602 in coming hours. The price area of 0.6683 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.6683 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.6732, then a stop loss should be placed at 0.6754.

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Bitcoin analysis for 09/09/2018

The agent of the US Drugs Agency (DEA) noted that the role of Bitcoin in crimes dropped to only 10 percent of transactions, while the number of transactions themselves increased dramatically - criminal activity using cryptocurrencies has fallen by 80 percent since 2013.

In the interview for one of the financial television, Special Agent DEA Lilita Infante - who is a member of the 10-member Cybercriminal Taskforce - said that the ratio of legal to illegal Bitcoin transactions in the last five years has turned: "The volume increased enormously, the number of transactions and the value of the dollar increased tremendously in the last years of criminal activity, but the ratio decreased".

The concept of criminals using cryptocurrencies as an alternative to cash has traditionally been the main argument used by those critical of the future of Bitcoin. Regulators also addressed the perception of using cryptocurrencies for illegal purposes, often related to terrorism and money laundering.

As the popularity of Bitcoin increased, the overwhelming majority of activity began to constitute a legal trade. Infante notes that most transactions are used for price speculation. She added that although focused on the privacy of altcoins are less fluid and more anonymous than Bitcoin, DEA still has ways to track currencies such as Monero and Zcash.

At the US House of Representatives' public meeting on digital resources in mid-July, Andreessen Horowitz, managing partner of Scott Kupor, suggested that Bitcoin is the best friend of law enforcement agencies because of the ability to track illegal transactions on Blockchain.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has plummeted to the level of $6,087, which is just above the technical support at the level of $6,034. Then the price bounced to $6,344 where the nearest technical resistance is, but the bearish pressure is still present on market. In a case of a further decrease, the next target level for bears is seen at $5,728.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 09, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point: 1.3048.

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade downwards from the level of 1.3048. This week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3048 to the bottom around 1.2974 then set around the spot of 1.3011. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3048 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 74 pips (1.3048 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3048, the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3094, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD For Aug 09, 2018

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The AUD/USD pair now moving in a Bearish bias, this condition is already confirmed by the price moving orderly bellow the Moving Average 100 periods and inside the down slope channel at the Daily Charts, although now this pair is moving in a Sideways condition because the Stochastic Oscillator is now already at Overbought level area.There is a possibility in a few days ahead that this pair will continue its Bearish bias as long as it does not break out and close above the 0.7845 level. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Aug 09, 2018

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At the Daily Charts we see the NZD/USD pair moving in a Bearish bias. This can be confirmed by the price moving bellow the Moving Average 100 periods, now because the Stochastic Oscillator already at Oversoldlevel area there will be a correction to the upside in a few days ahead at least to test the Support becoming Resistance level at 0.6686 before this pair went back again to its previous trend (Bearish). (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 09, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as ECB Economic Bulletin. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Unemployment Claims, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1667.

Strong Resistance: 1.1660.

Original Resistance: 1.1649.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1638.

Target Inner Area: 1.1610.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1582.

Original Support: 1.1571.

Strong Support: 1.1560.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1553.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 09, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, 30-y Bond Auction, M2 Money Stock y/y, and Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Unemployment Claims, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance 3: 111.39.

Resistance 2: 111.17.

Resistance 1: 110.95.

Support 1: 110.69.

Support 2: 110.45.

Support 3: 110.25.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefullyconsider your investment objectives, level of experience, and riskappetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones - GOLD for 08/08/18

On the pair, a local accumulation zone was formed between the two control zones. The a control zone (KZ) resistance is at 1221.13-1219.58, formed from the August low, and support is a weekly short-term order of 1203.68-1200.58.

The downward movement remains a priority while the pair trades below the a control zone of 1221.13-1219.58. The main goal of the fall is the weekly KZ of 1203.68-1200.58, the test of which will fix most of the sales and consider purchases in the formation of the reversal pattern. Favorable prices for the sale are within the limits of the a KZ, hence, when its test it is necessary to be ready to open a short position. You can also set a limit order on the specified zone with a stop not exceeding 500 points since the potential profit with a drop is 1500 pips.

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Selling from current marks may be relevant, but it is necessary to break the pattern, in which the stop does not exceed 300 points. Otherwise, the transaction will have a risk-to-profit ratio of less than 1 to 3.

To cancel the top-down model, you need to close today's US session above the level of 1221.13. This will open the way for the growth of the price of gold in the medium term. The probability of forming this model is 30%, which makes it auxiliary. Purchases from current marks do not look attractive, as the probability to update the August minimum is 70%. Purchases will become relevant if a large buyer appears after testing the weekly control zone and keeps the price above the zone within 24 hours.

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Daytime KZ is the daytime control zone. The zone is formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 9, 2018

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Finally, EUR/NZD broke clear above resistance at 1.7224 to confirm that red sub-wave iii higher towards 1.7510 is developing. Resistance at 1.7510 should not be able to hold back the ongoing rally for long and once cleared the next target to look for is seen at 1.8369 on the way higher to our long-term outstanding target at 1.9844.

Support is now seen at 1.7310 and then at 1.7224, but ideally, support at 1.7310 will be able to protect the downside for the rally 1.7510 and above.

R3: 1.7510

R2: 1.7479

R1: 1.7415

Pivot: 1.7343

S1: 1.7310

S2: 1.7262

S3: 1.7224

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7200.

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GBP/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

GBP/AUD is approaching its support at 1.7274 (61.8% Fibonacci extension 50% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially bounce up to its resistance at 1.7571 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 1.712% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

GBP/AUD is approaching its support where we expect to see it bounce.

Buy above 1.7274. Stop loss at 1.7087. Take profit at 1.7571.

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EUR/USD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For A Drop

EUR/USD reversed off its resistance at 1.1626 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2%, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect the price to drop further to its support at 1.1533 (horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 95% where a corresponding drop could occur.

EUR/USD reversed off resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 1.1626. Stop loss 1.1668. Take profit at 1.1533.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 9, 2018

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EUR/JPY stopped cold at 129.46, just below important short-term resistance at 129.62. The failure to break above resistance at 129.62 keeps the two possible scenarios alive.

We are still slightly in favor of wave ii/ having completed at 128.48 and wave iii/ ready to develop anytime now. If this scenario is to remain our top-count, we need to see support at 128.48 protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 128.95 and more importantly a break above the resistance-zone between 129.46 - 129.62 confirming, that wave iii/ higher towards resistance in the 135.74 - 135.79 area.

A break below 128.48, will shift the preferred count to the alternate count. This count calls for more downside pressure to 126.00 as a large expanded flat correction is developing as wave ii.

R3: 129.46

R2: 129.13

R1: 128.95

Pivot: 128.82

S1: 128.65

S2: 128.48

S3: 128.03

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.72 with our stop placed at 128.45.

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Daily Technical Analysis Video - 9th August 2018

Daily Technical Analysis Video - 9th August 2018

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 9, 2018

The USD/JPY is trading inside a long-term triangle pattern formation. Price recently got rejected at the upper triangle boundary. The Stochastic oscillator suggests that another leg down should soon follow if it has not already started. The target range is between 103-105.

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Blue line - resistance trend line

Red line - support trend line

The USD/JPY got rejected at 113. Now trading below 111 again and if price breaks below the 110.50 recent low I expect an acceleration lower towards 109. Eventually, I give many chances for the bearish scenario for a move in the second half of 2018 towards 103-105. I'm bearish USD/JPY as long as the price is below 113.

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Elliott wave analysis of Ethereum for August 9, 2018

Ethereum price has reached the important $350 price level and major support of previous April lows as expected by our last analysis. The trend remains bearish. However, there are many chances of at least a bounce towards $400 as 5 waves down could be completed from the July 18th highs.

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Blue line - bullish divergence

Magenta line - triangle wave 4

The Ethereum price has many chances of a bounce towards $400 from current levels. I would not trade the bullish side but I would take any profits from a short position. Price has most probably completed 5 waves down. The fifth wave also has an RSI bullish divergence. This supports our view for a bounce.

I'm expecting a short-term bounce at least.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EUR/USD for August 9, 2018

EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Price has started a bounce from Monday when it made a low at 1.1529 just above the major horizontal support at 1.15. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. However medium-term trend remains bearish as long as the price is below 1.17.

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Black rectangle - short-term target and major short-term resistance

Magenta line - trend line support

Green rectangle - support area

The EUR/USD has short-term support at 1.1580-1.1570. As long as the price is above this level we could see the pair move towards the cloud resistance and the black rectangle target at 1.1640-1.1660. A break above the cloud would be a bullish sign but not confirmation of a bigger trend change. At the 1.1660-1.1670 area, we find the Daily Kumo (cloud) resistance. Bulls need at least a daily close above this level to hope for a bigger trend change.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 9, 2018

The Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Nothing much happened today as Gold price still trades inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. Prices mostly moved sideways between $1,206 and $1,215 as they do for the last couple of sessions. This behavior helps us determine some support and resistance levels with more confidence.

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BITCOIN Analysis for August 8, 2018

Bitcoin resumed its bearish impulsive momentum even today which lead the price to breach below $6,500 support area as well. It was quite a stunner for the Bitcoin bulls as the optimism was at the peak and as speculators were waiting for a retrace and continue the based trading pattern, returning to the ZERO point which is at $6,500 did engulf the previous bullish pressure in the market quite easily. As of the current scenario, the price is still residing at the edge of $6,500 and Kumo Cloud dynamic support area whereas Chikou Span is also expected to get strong support from the Price Line, so as the price remains above $6,000-6,500 area with a daily close, further bullish momentum is expected in the coming days and the target will be as usual $8,000 and later $10,000.

SUPPORT: 6,000-6,500

RESISTANCE: 8,000, 10,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Is the black band for gold over?

The leader of the precious metals sector, who marked its worst start in the last decade, managed to take a breather due to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen against the US dollar. The strong US currency has become the main culprit of the XAU/USD pair slumping by 7% since the beginning of the year. According to the World Gold Council report, global demand fell to 1959 tons in January-June, which is the lowest value since 2009. During the same period in 2017 it was about 2086 tons. And while interest in jewelry and the use of metal in the industry has been stable, the outflow of capital from the ETF became the main driver of falling prices.

According to WGC research, the reserves of specialized exchange-traded funds increased by a modest 60.9 tons in the first half of 2018. In January-June 2017, the process was significantly faster (+160.9 tons). The dog is buried in the flight of American investors from the market. Against the background of the dispersal of US GDP to 4.1% q/q, they preferred to buy securities rather than revenue-generating precious metals. The story of the collapse of Chinese stock indices under the influence of the slowdown of the Chinese economy and trade wars did not help either. If at the beginning of 2016 gold grew in response to the fall of Shanghai Composite, then this year assets prefer to go one way.

Dynamics of gold and the Shanghai Composite

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If we focus on the dynamics of capital outflow from the ETF, we can assume that the XAU/USD will continue the downward campaign. Thus, according to Commerzbank's estimates, after the loss of stock of specialized exchange-traded funds of 29 tons in July, from the beginning of August they sank by another 16 tons. The bank expects that in the near future, under the influence of aggressive monetary tightening of the Fed, gold will test the psychologically important mark of $1200 per ounce. Supporters and speculators, who as of July 31 accumulated a record from 2006 net position on the analyzed asset in the futures market 27 156 contracts, equivalent to 2.7 million ounces.

Standard Bank, on the contrary, believes that the black band for the precious metal has remained in the past. The factor of four increases in the federal funds rate in 2018 is practically taken into account in the quotes of the USD index (the futures market gives about 70% of the probability of such an outcome), investors are unlikely to be surprised by this. But the slower normalization of monetary policy of the Fed or the loss of US GDP by the pair can lead to an increase in XAU/USD quotes to $1,260 per ounce in the third quarter. Before the end of the year, gold can test the level of $1300.

The pluralism of opinions allows the "bulls" of the precious metal to take a breath and contributes to its consolidation in the range of $1205-1235 per ounce. Investors will closely monitor the release of data on US inflation for July. Overclocking the CPU to 3% and above will increase the chances of four Fed rate increases and will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.

Technically, gold reaching the convergence zone of $1185-1220 per ounce (targets for 88.6% and 113% on the "Double top" pattern) increases the risks of a rollback to the current short-term downward trend.

Gold, daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. 8 August. Trading system "Regression channels". The third trading day in a row without news

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

Upper linear regression channel direction - down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20, smoothed) - down.

CCI: -86.4419

On August 7, the GBP/USD currency pair was trading near the Murray level "0/8" with a minimum range of movements against the background of the complete absence of any macroeconomic information. If the EUR/USD currency pair has started a significant correction, the positions of the pound sterling remain extremely weak – traders do not even take profit on sell orders. Thus, all short positions remain open, and at any moment bears can start to increase them if they do not receive any information that will force them to close their shorts. By the way, such information is not expected at least for Wednesday. Of course, there may be some unplanned speech by Theresa May or any of the British Parliament or Donald Trump. Potentially, these statements can have an impact on the course of trading. But as long as they are not there, the pair's chances for a downward movement and consolidation below Murray's level "0/8" are much greater than at least correction. The most interesting thing is that no important macroeconomic statistics are expected either from the UK or the US on Thursday. This means that the volatility of the instrument may remain extremely low for the rest of the current trading week.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1,2939

S2 – 1,2878

S3 – 1,2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1,3000

R2 – 1,3062

R3 – 1,3123

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair tested the level of 1,2939 and began a side correction. Thus, it is currently recommended to wait for the resumption of the downward movement and on the signal to overcome the level of 1.2939 to open new short positions with the goal of 1.2878.

It is recommended to consider purchase orders not earlier than consolidating bulls above the moving average line than is not expected in the near future. However, if this happens, the pair will get another small chance to strengthen at 1.3062.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

Upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

Low channel of the linear– purple line unidirectional movement.

More: CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20;smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray's levels are multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com