Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for June 14, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite volatile and corrective while residing above 1.2900-50 area recently. The price is currently expected to push higher in the coming days. Though CAD has been quite positive amid recent economic reports, USD gained momentum quite impulsively today in light of yesterday's rate hike.

This week, the FOMC held a policy meeting. As a wrap-up, the rate-setting commitee released a statement which showed an increase of the official funds rate to 2.00% from 1.75% previously. Though there has been certain indecision about the impact of the rate hike, USD managed to gain sustainable momentum over CAD in the meantime. Today, US Core Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.5%, Retail Sales also increased to 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Unemployment Claims decreased to 218k from the previous figure of 222k which was expected to increase to 223k, and Import Prices remained unchanged at 0.6% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%.

On the other hand, today Canada's NHPI report was published unchanged at 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.2%.

As for the current scenario, USD has been very positive in light of the economic reports today which led the price to be quite impulsive with the gains whereas CAD is struggling to sustain the momentum it created recently. As trading sentiment on USD is currently quite optimistic, further gains on the USD side are expected in this pair in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is now following a bullish trajectory after retesting the 1.2950 support area today. The pair is still quite volatile and corrective. The price is expected to push higher impulsively with a target towards 1.3120 resistance area in the future. As the price remains above 1.2900-50 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 14, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Currently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) is considered a prominent Supply zone to be watched for bearish rejection and possible SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.1900.

As anticipated, evident bearish rejection is being expressed around the price zone of (1.1850-1.1750). This enhances the bearish side of the market.

That's why, for EUR/USD sellers, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) is currently needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 14, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

When bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

On the other hand, the current bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) remains a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Analysis of Gold for June 14, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,305.07. According to the H1 time frame, I found broken bullish flag in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the pullback. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,313.80 and at the price of $1,325.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,306.65

R2: $1,310.15

R3: $1,315.90

Support levels:

S1: $1,297.45

S2: $1,291.95

S3: $1,288.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 14, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3410. According to the H1 time frame, I found broken bullish flag in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the pullback. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3470 and at the price of 1.3570.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3410

R2: 1.3445

R3: 1.3495

Support levels:

S1: 1.3326

S2: 1.3275

S3: 1.3242

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for June 14, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $6.085. The Thai financial regulator is expected to approve five ICO projects once the new regulatory framework takes effect this month. Out of 50 ICO projects in the country, only five satisfy the registration requirements set out by the regulator this week. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a bearish flag in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the bearish flag. The trend is downward. The downward target is set at the price of $6.095.

Support/Resistance

$6.510 – Intraday resistance

$6.392– Intraday support

$6.095– Objective target

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The Fed raises rates

Yesterday afternoon, all traders and investors followed the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which no one was surprised with.

As it became known, the Federal Reserve set a range of interest rates for federal funds between 1.75% and 2.00%. This decision by the committee on open market operations of the Federal Reserve was unanimously adopted. The Fed also raised the discount rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.50%, saying it had set a more aggressive rate of interest rates for 2019 inclusive.

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It is expected that about four increases in rates in 2018 will occur with three increases in rates in 2019 and one increase in 2020. Thus, the regulator signaled further gradual increases in rates, which could provide support to the US dollar in the medium term.

In the speech of the chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, the US dollar has not received the necessary support.

Powell said that the economy is doing very well and the gradual return of rates to normal levels is the best way to maintain the conditions for the prosperity of households and companies, because history shows that too fast or too slow changes in interest rates can lead to bad consequences for the economy.

The Fed chairman also noted economic growth, which, from his point of view, accelerated in the current quarter at the expense of household spending and the prospects for the economy remain rather favorable.

As for the labor market, Powell expects the current rate of growth to continue. The Fed Chairman also noted that the latest data on inflation are encouraging, which allows us to think that we are almost at the target level of 2%.

At the end of the speech, the manager pointed out that the changes in the statement of the Fed did not reflect any changes in views on its policy but it is expected that there will continue to be a gradual increase in the rate for federal funds.

All this again shows that the Fed adheres to its program, and so far no fundamental and political factors can prevent it from following a given course.

Today is also a difficult day, as many market participants have shifted their attention to the decision of the European Central Bank already, as well as to a press conference at which the ECB president can signal the start of the asset buyback program, which will further support the risk currencies, especially the European ones.

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Euro may fall following the ECB meeting

Today, the European Central Bank is taking the "baton" of important decisions on monetary policy after the outcome of the Fed meeting. What is the "threat" to the euro and what will be its immediate prospects?

However before we answer these burning questions, it is worth summarizing the Fed meeting on monetary policy. As expected, the American regulator expectedly raised the key interest rate by 0.25%, to 2.00%, and now its rate ranges from 1.75% to 2.00%. In addition, J. Powell, the head of the US Central Bank, said that another increase in interest rates is expected this year in addition to the expected three. The resolution of the bank, as well as in the speech of its leader, was to be optimistic about the prospects for the growth of the US economy, as well as further lowering of the unemployment rate and a gradual rise in inflationary pressures. In addition, it was reported that the process of gradual raising of interest rates will continue. Their probable average and maximum levels for the next two years have been determined.

The foreign exchange market first reacted with purchases of the US dollar to publish the final resolution of the Federal Reserve, then, as it carefully read into its essence, and then listened to Powell's words, moved on to selling the dollar. The main reason for this is, on one hand, the expected outcome of the meeting, and on the other, the understanding that the process of tightening monetary policy will proceed smoothly, which can be leveled by the beginning of similar processes in other securities of the Central Bank that are traded against the dollar at the Big Forex.

In this row, the outcome of the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will become known this afternoon, will be extremely important. Markets will wait from the European regulator for another reduction in the volume of asset purchase and a signal that by October this process will be fully completed. Earlier, the ECB has repeatedly informed about this, therefore, if today it is not specific in its plans, it will float. It can have a disappointing effect and lead to a local depreciation of the euro, primarily in relation to the US dollar . Such a possibility is likely since the regulator may wish to take a wait-and-see attitude until the next July meeting in order to be convinced of the factor of maintaining the growth of the European economy and the presence of an increase in inflationary pressures.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is consolidating in the "outset" pending the outcome of the ECB meeting. If the bank's position on the prospects for the termination of incentive measures is vague, it could lead to a drop in price to 1.1725 after overcoming the level of 1.1800.

The USDJPY pair remains in the short-term uptrend but it demonstrates a local reversal down in the wake of the weakness of the dollar following the Fed's meeting on monetary policy. From a technical point of view, it can continue to decline to 109.20 after falling below the 110.00 mark.

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Trading plan for EUR / USD pair as of June 14, 2013

As expected, the Fed raised the refinancing rate from 1.75% to 2.00% yesterday. Given the completely predictable outcome of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations, the decision had no impact on the market. Rather, it even turned out to be a boon for a single European currency, as tensions and expectations were left behind. At least a part of them, since today ECB board meeting on monetary policy will take place. It is most likely that the ECB's board will not say anything about its plans for a quantitative easing program. This is indicated by factors such as the growth of inflation in Europe, as well as, the absence of a press conference following the meeting. The wording will be extremely vague, and, given the market's concerns about the prospects for extending the quantitative easing program, this will be enough to somewhat reassure investors. Reducing tension will have a beneficial effect on the single European currency. Moreover, in the US, the forecast assumes a slowdown in the growth of retail sales from 4.6% to 4.4%, coupled with an increase in commercial inventories by 0.3%.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move in the range of 1.1725 / 1.1830, which is currently located at the upper border. In case of fixing the price above the upper limit, we are most likely to be dragged to the values of 1.1850 / 1.1900. Otherwise, the movement in the range will continue.

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The daily review of EUR / JPY pair on 14.06.18. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / JPY pair

Players on the rise did not give up hope for the continuation of the upswing. The important point of which is the area of 131 (weekly Kijun 131.05 + Senkou Span A 130.96 + day cloud 131.19), but despite the daily maximum update, they can not close the day above the maximum last week's extreme (130.24). Together with the resistance of the higher timeframes, there still remains an untapped target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud. The weakness of players to fall by the end of the week may turn into a corrective decline, the targets of which will be the support levels of the daily cross 129 (day Tenkan + week Tenkan) - 128 (daytime Fibo Kijun) - 127 (daytime Fibo Kijun + month Fibo Kijun). The younger time intervals are in solidarity with this.

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Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for June 14, 2018

Having worked out below due to the strong news yesterday, the market almost completely eliminated the bottom news work and continues to move upward. This indicates the continuation of the uptrend.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Today, the market will continue to move up towards the first target at 1.3413, which is the middle line of the EMA (black line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the market for the GBP / USD pair will move up towards the first target at 1.3413, which is the middle line of the EMA (black line).

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Trading plan for GBP / USD pair as of June 14, 2013

Yesterday's increase in the Fed's refinancing rate from 1.75% to 2.00% was absolutely predictable, so it did not have any effect on the market. Moreover, the pound even slightly strengthened, although the data on inflation seriously disappointed, as shown its stabilization at 2.4%. However, producer price growth rates in the U.S. accelerated from 2.6% to 3.1%, which turned out to be better than forecasts. Hence, the growth of the pound is justified solely by the market's willingness to raise the refinancing rate. So now, the market will pay more attention to macroeconomic statistics. In the UK, retail sales are expected to accelerate from 1.4% to 2.4%, while in the US, they may slow from 4.6% to 4.4%. In addition, the US may continue to increase inventories, and commercial reserves should increase by 0.3%.

The GBP/USD currency pair is gradually recovering after testing the level of 1.3300. Most likely, we will again be attracted to the range of 1.3440, where we will slow down the movement.

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FRS approaches crisis

The US Federal Reserve raised the target range at a rate of 0.25% to 1.75-2.00%. This decision was expected by the markets and did not cause a noticeable increase in volatility. Most macroeconomic forecasts have also been revised upward and several "soft" formulations have disappeared from the text of the accompanying statement, which indicates an increase in optimism about the outlook for the economy.

The forecast for the GDP has been raised for the current year from .7% to 2.8%, expectations for unemployment have been improved from 3.8% to 3.6%, the inflation forecast has been enhanced as well with the expectations for this year to be fixed at 2.1%, and the inflation core will be at 2.0% in the current stock and 2.1% in the next two. In other words, the Fed makes it clear that all inflation targets will be confidently achieved.

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The most important change affected the forecast for the rate. The Fed apparently expects to reach the target level of 3.4% a little earlier. For the current year, the forecast for the rate has been raised from 2.1% to 2.4%, which automatically indicates two more increases this year, which are most likely to occur in September and December, and another 3 increases in 2019.

More aggressive formulations of the accompanying statement relate mainly to inflation. The Fed no longer declares that it controls inflation carefully and does not indicate a gradual or rapid increase in rates. At the same time, a cautious step was taken. The interest rate on the excess reserves of banks was increased by 20 points to 1.95%. Now, it is just below the upper limit of the range, and apparently, will shift further to the middle of the range. The Fed intends to push commercial banks to not keep excess funds on the account of the Fed but look for other possibilities for placement. It is likely that these intentions are related to the fact that the Fed is actively reducing the balance by withdrawing from treasures, and if so, we can expect continued incentives for banks to actively participate in financing the government.

The reaction of the markets to the results of the meeting was mixed but it is most likely that it will follow in the coming days. For the global credit market, the results of the Fed meeting are interpreted unambiguously as tightening of financial conditions and increasing risks. By the end of 2017, the volume of debts outside the US, denominated in USD, reached 10.7 trillion, an increase of more than 5.5 trillion. since 2008, and this is a direct result of the soft monetary policy of the last decade.

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The higher value of growth rates mean a higher increase in the cost of servicing this mass of debt, which will mean increased risks. Accordingly, it is necessary to expect the fall of stock markets and, possibly, stabilization or reduction of prices for raw materials. US stock markets reacted to the results of the meeting by a slight decrease, in particular, the S & P 500 lost 0.4%, and now it is likely that we will soon see a global turnaround of the world's stock markets.

Now, the move is for Europe. Today, the ECB will hold its meeting on monetary policy. It is expected that statements will be made about the exact timing of the curtailment of the asset purchase program and, possibly, will be indicated at the beginning of the cycle of rate hikes next year. Meanwhile, the markets assume that the asset repurchase will be completed by the end of 2018 and the growth rates will begin with a time lag of six months, that is, around June 2019. This alignment will retain the dollar's advantage and therefore in the next few days, it is likely that the trend will resume on the growth of the dollar.

Another important event today is the end of the pause taken by Trump for the introduction of new customs tariffs in trade with China. The pause was necessary for Trump to support China's dialogue with the DPRK but now nothing prevents the implementation of the planned measures, the threat of renewed tensions in trade will help strengthen the dollar's position.

Thus, the dollar is ready to resume growth. The EURUSD pair can test the support level of 1.1725 for strength today, the growth of gold is postponed until better times, and the currencies of developing countries will be put under the greatest pressure.

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What are Fed's decisions on 06/13/2018

What are Fed's decision on 06/13/2018

After increasing the base interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.75% -2.00%, the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve commented on its decision and the current situation in the country:

The Fed noted a significant upsurge in the economic activity and a further improvement in the labor market, thanks to the positive growth of jobs in recent months and the decline in unemployment.

The Federal Reserve also mentioned that the latest data presented growth in family spending has increased substantially, while business investment continued to expand essentially.

The Fed continues to assess long-term inflation expectations as stable. At the same time, the 12-month-based general inflation and basic inflation, excluding energy and food prices, came close to 2%.

The Fed strives, in accordance with its mandate, to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed expects that further gradual increases in the target interest rate range for federal funds will be carried out in line with the steady economic growth activity, while the strengthening of the labor market and inflation is close to the federal target of 2% in the medium-term. Risks for economic prospects look quite balanced.

Taking into account the already achieved and expected parameters of the labor market and inflation, the Federal Reserve decided to raise the target range of interest rates for federal funds to 1.75% -2.00%. The basic principles of monetary policy will remain rather flexible, thereby supporting the strengthening labor market and the sustainable return of inflation to the level of 2%.

In determining the timing and extent of future regulation, the target interest rate range for federal funds of the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected economic growth in relation to its targets of maximum employment and inflation level at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation outlook, financial and international developments.

The current foundations of monetary policy were adopted unanimously by eight members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve.

* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 14, 2018

Having worked out the strong news, the price went up on Wednesday. Thus, it shows that the upward weekly trend continues. Today, there is a report on the interest rate decision in Europe at 11.45 London time. According to analysts' expectations, the regulator will leave the base rate unchanged.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Today, the market will continue to move up before the report at 11.45 London time. The first goal will be 1.1830 - the historical resistance level (red dotted line). During the publication of the report, there is a high probability of the price going down but it will only be a rollback.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the market will continue to move up before the report at 11.45 London time. The first goal will be 1.1830 - the historical resistance level (red dotted line). During the publication of the report, there is a high probability of the price going down but it will only be a rollback. After working off the news downward, it will again move up.

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A calm "Australian" does not see any reason for growth

AUD / USD

Previously, the Australian dollar was repeatedly noted as a qualitative, pure indicative response to events in the global financial industry. Yesterday, the law went down to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise the rate and raise forecasts for further tightening of the policy against the speculative movements of the euro and the Australian pound, this happened despite the fact that the consumer sentiment index from Westpac for June increased by 0.3%. Australia's mixed employment figures are coming today. The unemployment rate has fallen from 5.6% to 5.4%, but due to the lowering of share of the economically active population from 65.6% to 65.5%. New jobs created reached 12 thousand against the expectation of 19 thousand Full employment, showing a decreased of 21 thousand workers.

But China was even more disappointed today. In May, industrial production in China dropped from 7.0% YoY to 6.8% YoY while expecting a decline to 6.9% YoY. Investments in fixed assets decreased from 7.0% YoY to 6.1% YoY. Retail sales declined from 9.4% YoY to 8.5% YoY against growth expectations of up to 9.6% YoY. Chinese stock market China A50 is down to 0.55%, and Australian S&P / ASX 200 is down to -0.14%. We are waiting for the AUD/USD pair at 0.7440.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

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Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD currency pair on June 14, 2018

The EUR/USD currency pair continues the range wagering within the limits of 1.1725 / 1.1830. Yesterday's news background was unable to support the sellers. The Fed's interest rate statement was expected and the players did not support it, where in fact the linear analysis, in this case, worked perfectly, practicing the lower limit of 1.1725.

Further development:

Today, we are facing news from the EU, where traders are waiting for signals from the ECB on the reduction of QE, reminding you that the head of the Central Bank has already stated this. At the same time, there is also positive news from Italy, where she stated that she will not leave the European Union.

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What can we expect:

While the movement in the range remains at 1.1725 / 1.1830, I would not place any positions. At the moment, it is most attractive to take a waiting position, the news background can provoke an unjustified chatter. However, the setting of pending orders can perfectly suit the current situation. We have two scenarios:

First - the news background played positively on the euro. In this case, we set the pending order above the upper limit. I would advise considering the point above the fractal at 1.1838 (from June 7, H4).

Second - News background will not hold bulls and all the actions are expected. In this case, the movement in the range will remain 1.1725 / 1.1830.

Technical picture:

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF), we can see that indicator analysis is more inclined to buy than to sell.

CONCLUSION: ACTIVE BUY

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Key Levels

Resistance zones: 1.1830 *; 1.1900; 1.2100

Support zones: 1.1725 *; 1.1650 *; 1.1540 **

* Periodic level

** Range level

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Global macro overview for 14/06/2018

Not that long ago global investors thought that the risks to the Euro before the meeting outweighed the negative side, because they assumed, that the currency could strengthen based on the expectations of the hawkish result of the meeting, while the tone of decisions and conferences may be less aggressive or result in "sale the facts" behaviour. Nevertheless, the next few days brought stabilization, if not even cooling the demand for EUR, which made investors' attitude return into balance. But the rebound of the EUR/USD after the yesterday's Fed's decision prompts to conclude, that the market is again setting up on a hawkish ECB message. There is a potential for a positive reaction to the decision of the ECB regardless of whether the traders will know the specific details of extending the QE, or the decision will be postponed until July and today we will have to rely on Draghi's suggestions. In the latter case, a lot will depend on how optimistic Draghi will be about the prospects of accelerating the recovery in the Eurozone and return of inflation to the target levels while reducing the importance of internal risks (like uncertainty in Italy, deterioration in economic data, etc.) and external (like US trade policy and tariffs tax ). However, if the ECB shows that it remains at a previously set exchange rate, it may offer investors confidence in building expectations of a progressive normalization of monetary policy, which will be an important pillar of the long-term EUR power.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe, before the ECB interest rate decision was made. The price has bounced higher after the Fed interest rate hike yesterday and now the market is approaching the swing high at the level of 1.1839. An interest rate hike by ECB or Draghi hawkish remarks will make EUR/USD to rally way higher than this level. In this case, the first target would be at the level of 1.1994 (practically round number 1.2000), but in that case, I think it might get extended even to the level of 1.2068 easily. If, however, the ECB will leave the rate unchanged or the Draghi remarks will not be as hawkish as expected, the EUR/USD will likely test the 38% Fibo at 1.1852 and stop there to consolidate the gains.

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The pound trembles with apprehension over the euro

GBP / USD

The British pound closed the day yesterday nearly unchanged, although the Federal Reserve decided to raise the rate by 0.25% and increase the forecast to four rate hikes this year, down by 80 points. The subsequent growth was associated with a overall weakening of the dollar - the UD index closed the day by 0.28% down.

Yesterday's data on inflation, in general, came to the same level as predicted but investors did not pay significant attention to them. The base CPI remained at 2.1% YoY, while the overall CPI remained at the previous 2.4% YoY. Housing prices have weakened from 4.2% YoY to 3.9% YoY while expecting growth to 4.4% YoY. Retail prices have weakened from 3.4% YoY to 3.3% YoY. The indices of purchasing and selling prices of producers increased.

Today, retail sales in the UK and the US for May will be issued. British Retail Sales is expected to increase by 0.5%, and 0.4% in the US. But the base retail sales index (without cars) in the UK is expected to increase by 0.3%, and in the US by 0.5%. Also, the import prices for May will be released with a forecast of 0.5%, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits showed a forecast of 223 thousand, about the previous level (222 thousand), and the inventory of companies for April had a forecast of 0.3%.

At 1:30 PM London time, a press conference by the ECB head Mario Draghi will begin, in connection with the poor economic data for the eurozone, he may declare to extend the monitoring process for the incoming data, which will frustrate investors, and the euro will not support the pound. We are waiting for the British pound at 1.3260.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of June 14

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, there is a high probability of resuming the upward movement, which requires a breakdown at the level of 1.1850. For the GBP / USD, the price is still in the correction zone from the upward movement. For the USD / CHF pair, the price forms a strong potential for the upward movement of June 7. The development of this level is expected after the breakdown of 0.9896. For the USD / JPY pair, the continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 110.92. For the EUR / JPY pair, we expect the movement towards the level of 130.83. For the GBP / JPY pair, the continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 148.20.

Forecast for June 14:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1955, 1.1907, 1.1849, 1.1824, 1.1752, 1.1721, 1.1672 and 1.1631. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of May 30. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.1824 - 1.1849. In this case, the target is 1.1907. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.1955. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1752-1.1721. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1672. This level is the key support for the upward structure from May 30. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.1631.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1850 Take profit: 1.1905

Buy 1.1908 Take profit: 1.1955

Sell: 1.1750 Take profit: 1.1722

Sell: 1.1718 Take profit: 1.1674

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3548, 1.3495, 1.3457, 1.3381, 1.3354, 1.3311 and 1.3273. Here, we follow the upward structure from May 29. Currently, we expect the movement towards the level of 1.3457. The breakdown of this level, in turn, will lead to a movement towards the level of 1.3495. Near this level, we expect the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3548. From this level, we expect a departure towards correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3381 - 1.3354. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3311. This level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3273.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3460 Take profit: 1.3490

Buy: 1.3497 Take profit: 1.3545

Sell: 1.3380 Take profit: 1.3355

Sell: 1.3352 Take profit: 1.3313

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9990, 0.9963, 0.9924, 0.9896, 0.9835, 0.9812, 0.9784 and 0.9754. Here, the price issued a pronounced structure from June 7 for the development of an upward trend. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9896. In this case, the target is 0.9924. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 0.9926 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target here is 0.9963. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 0.9990. After reaching this level, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9835 - 0.9812, hence the probability of a turn to the top is high. The breakdown at the level of 0.9812 will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.9784.

The main trend is a local downward structure from May 29, the formation of the potential for the top of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9922

Buy: 0.9926 Take profit: 0.9960

Sell: 0.9833 Take profit: 0.9814

Sell: 0.9810 Take profit: 0.9786

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 112.24, 111.90, 111.31, 110.92, 110.69, 110.15, 109.79, 109.46 and 108.91. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of May 29. The price formalized the local structure for the top of June 8. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after passing through the price range of 110.69 - 110.92. In this case, the target is 111.31. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 112.24. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 112.24 - 111.90.

Departure in the correction is expected after the breakdown of 110.15. Here, the target is 109.79. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 109.79 - 109.46. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of the downward structure. Here, the potential target is 108.91.

The main trend is an upward cycle from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.92 Take profit: 111.30

Buy: 111.33 Take profit: 111.90

Sell: 110.12 Take profit: 109.82

Sell: 109.77 Take profit: 109.48

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3278, 1.3219, 1.3159, 1.3093, 1.3053, 1.2905, 1.2856, 1.2819 and 1.2758. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 31. The development of this level is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.3053 - 1.3093. In this case, the target is 1.3159. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown at 1.3160 will lead to the movement towards the level of 1.3219. From this level, there is a high probability of leaving the correction. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3278.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2905 - 1.2856. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2758.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3093 Take profit: 1.3156

Buy: 1.3162 Take profit: 1.3216

Sell: 1.2905 Take profit: 1.2858

Sell: 1.2819 Take profit: 1.2760

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 0.7719, 0.7677, 0.7639, 0.7619, 0.7553, 0.7515 and 0.7474. Here, the price forms the potential for a downward movement from June 6. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.7553. In this case, the target is 0.7515. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 0.7474.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7619 - 0.7639. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of an upward structure. Here, the first target is 0.7677. This level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from June 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7640 Take profit: 0.7674

Buy: 0.7679 Take profit: 0.7717

Sell: 0.7550 Take profit: 0.7516

Sell: 0.7513 Take profit: 0.7476

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 132.58, 131.40, 130.83, 129.85, 129.22, 128.68 and 127.77. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 29. At the moment, we expect the movement towards the level of - 130.83. In the area of 130.83 - 131.40 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 132.58. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 129.22 - 128.68. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 127.77. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.87 Take profit: 130.80

Buy: 131.42 Take profit: 132.55

Sell: 129.20 Take profit: 128.70

Sell: 128.65 Take profit: 127.80

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 150.37, 149.66, 148.72, 148.14, 147.38, 146.89 and 146.11. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of May 29. Short-term upward movement is possible in area of 148.14 - 148.72. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 149.66. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 150.37. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in area of 147.38 - 146.89. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 146.11. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.16 Take profit: 148.70

Buy: 148.76 Take profit: 149.64

Sell: 147.36 Take profit: 146.92

Sell: 146.85 Take profit: 146.15

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for GOLD on June 14

Forecast for June 14:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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По Gold основными ключевыми уровнями в масштабе Н1 являются: 1317.09, 1308.97, 1305.28, 1300.97, 1287.67 и 1281.60. Здесь, продолжения For Gold, the main key levels in H1 scale are: 1317.09, 1308.97, 1305.28, 1300.97, 1287.67 and 1281.60. Here, the continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 1300.97. In this case, the first target is 1305.28. In the area of 1305.28 - 1308.97 is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of the level of 1308.97 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1317.09

The level of 1291.63 is a key support for the local upward structure on June 5. It will lead to a breakdown in the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target of 1287.67 will consolidate around this level. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 1281.60.

The main trend is a local structure for the top of June 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1301.00 Take profit: 1305.00

Buy 1305.30 Take profit: 1308.90

Sell: 1291.30 Take profit: 1288.00

Sell: 1287.20 Take profit: 1281.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 14/06/2018

Fed raised interest rates by 25 bps and signaled readiness for two more hikes before the end of the year and another three in 2019, but this was not enough to sustain the appreciation of the USD. An obstacle may be the lack of a signal for further strengthening on the part of the debt market, where yields of 10-year bonds have failed to reach over 3%. (today, 2 bp are falling at 2.95%).

In the press release, the decision does not have too many changes in the assessment of the economic situation. It emphasized continued improvement in the labor market, increase in consumption and investment. As expected, the extract removed that economic conditions require slow interest rate increases and that interest rates will remain below the long-term level for some time. This is the adjustment of the communication to the forecast of the federal reserve rate, which in 2020 shows a higher level than in the long run. The Fed also decided to raise the interest rate from the surplus reserve by 20 bp (in line with expectations).

The projection of the optimal level of interest rates at the end of subsequent years (the so-called "dot chart") shows that the Fed will raise rates twice this year. In 2019, the base scenario is three more increases, and in 2020, after one increase in the cost of money, rates would be 3.5%.

The Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell at the press conference in every opinion confirms faith in the US economy and the accuracy of Fed decisions. Raising the rate from surplus reserves by 20 bp is a small technical adjustment, the process of balance reduction goes smoothly, the strength of the economy allows for changing communication strategies with the market. It emphasizes that trends on the energy commodity market temporarily hinder inflation, but calms down, that the Fed will not show over-reactivity to this situation. Raising rates too slow or too fast could, in his opinion, be harmful.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the first reaction, the price has started to rallying towards the level of 110.84, but the H4 candle closed near the lows eventually. Currently, the price is dropping towards the technical support at the level of 109.83. The market conditions are overbought and the momentum is pointing downwards, which confirms the intraday bearish bias. Any violation of the black trend line will be considered as even more bearish sign and weakness of the market.

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Bitcoin analysis for 14/06/2018

Changpeng Zhao, general manager of Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, based on trading volume and historical charts, said the fall in Bitcoin's price is normal.

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, has recently reached its lowest level in three months. Despite the decline in prices, the CEO of the largest cryptocurrency market remains calm, noting that nothing is abnormal in the current price correction.

In his tweet, Zhao shared a few charts that show significant similarities in the behavior of the largest cryptocurrency in the world. However, he also notes that despite these significant price adjustments, a key factor to be taken into account is the significant progress of Bitcoin prices over the years. Zhao shows that since 2010 Bitcoin has been regularly adjusting even more than the current decline. In 2010, BTC lost 94% of its value (from September 14 to November 8). In 2011, Bitcoin's price dropped from $ 32 on August 8 to $ 2 on November 17. which means another 94% blow. On November 30, 2013, it amounted to $ 1,166 and fell to $ 170.

Whether or not Bitcoin will continue to fall, or has already reached the bottom, will only be seen. Well-known analyst Tone Vays said $ 4.975 is an optimistic scenario for bear market prices. However, if we suggest history, we note that the price of Bitcoin increases after every major correction, reaching its new heights.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the daily time frame. The breakout below the level of $6,402 has invalidated the impulsive scenario and the next best count is to treat the downside wave as a part of a big corrective cycle in wave 2. In that case, the technical support at the levels of $5,852-$5,555 is the key long-term support for bulls, otherwise, the price will drop towards the level of $4,958. At the lower time frames, there are no signs of a downtrend to reverse yet. The key intraday resistance is seen at the level of $6,588 and $6,993.

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Mario Draghi does not sleep and dream

EUR / USD

The main event of yesterday was the Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy. The meeting with the most grateful aspirations of speculators enable the rate to raised to 2.00%, and the forecast for the number of raise rates for the year was raised to four, except for the median forecast of FOMC. Next year, Committee members are expecting three increase rates. Hence, the first reaction is that the dollar will begin to strengthen appreciably, but then its growth in all major currencies was redeemed. Allegedly, the statement of Powell that the FOMC is not expecting a sharp increase in inflation, and if such fears were, the Committee is ready to raise rates even faster. According to news agencies, the US is waiting for a slowdown in inflation, whereas in reality Powell marked the hawkish intentions of the Fed to further tighten monetary policy. We are far from the temptation to take the hard one soft, we are waiting for the ECB's meeting and, as they said earlier, the euro will fall on Mario Draghi's evasion from aggressive speech. He will not mention again the exact date of QE completion program. Then the markets will "consider" both meetings of the Central Banks.

Despite the importance of yesterday's Fed meeting, it is also worth paying attention to the indices of industrial production of the eurozone. The Industrial Production in April showed a decline to -0.9% against the forecast of -0.6% and growth of 0.6% in March. On an annual basis, industrial growth weakened from 3.0% YoY to 1.7% YoY against the forecast of 2.8% YoY. In the light of today's ECB meeting, these data are of particular importance, the industrial production is at the upper levels of the unstable 2015, then its lowest figure came to December (-0.1% YoY). If, by analogy with ZEW business sentiment, deepen in 2014, the current rate of 1.7% will correspond to February 2014, and at the end of the year it will drop to -0.8% YoY.

The ECB's rate decision will be announced at 12:45 PM London time. At 1:30 PM London time, a press conference with Mario Draghi will begin. Meanwhile, the United States is expected to have good retail sales figures. In May, Retail Sales is expected to increase by 0.4% versus 0.3% in April. The base retail sales index is projected at 0.5% versus 0.3% earlier.

As a result, we expect a decline in the euro to 1.1620 within a few days.

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* The presented analysis of the market is informative and is not a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 14/06/2018

Despite the hawkish Fed, the USD was unable to achieve a lasting strengthening, disappointed with the failure to return 10-year margins of over 3.0%. Moving attention to the ECB meeting helps to draw EUR/USD above 1.18. Weak elements of the Australian labor market report and disappointment in Chinese data bring pressure on AUD. Weak data from China push the equity market down in Asia. Japanese Nikkei 225 loses 0.7%, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite drops by 0.5%.

An additional factor that weakens the risk appetite are trade tensions on the US-China line. Financial media reports that the US is doing work on import duties on Chinese goods. On Friday, the White House will present a final list for goods worth 50 billion USD.In the United Kingdom, the House of Commons has rejected amendments to the law on leaving the EU, which would order the government to include in the negotiations a postulate to remain in the customs union. After Tuesday's alliance, Prime Minister Tory with the Tories, such a result was predictable and does not change much in the reception of the Brexit procedure and the GBP position.Oil prices remain at night without major changes and close to two-week highs after positive DoE report from Wednesday. WTI at 66.5 USD is less than 40 cents from Wednesday's high.

On Thursday 14th of June, the event of the day is ECB interest rate decision and press conference, but the global investors will keep an eye on German CPI and Harmonized CPI data, Consumer Price Index data from France, Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data from the UK, New Housing Price Index data from Canada and Retail Sales data from the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 14/06/2018:

AUD, NZD, and emerging markets currencies remain the weakest currency at the board, weakened first by the hawkish overtone of the FOMC decision, and later by the report on the Australian labor market that did not give clear reasons for satisfaction. Although the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.6%, but the employment structure is poor. In May, 12,000 jobs were created (versus 1,000 expected), but the number of full-time jobs has shrunk by 20.6k. AUD/USD lost 10 pips after the data were published, which it quickly recovered, but another hit was a series of data from China, where retail sales, industrial production and investment expenditures were worse than expected. Currently, AUD/USD is testing 0.7560, while the level of 0.7528 is the low set after the Fed statement. The key level to the upside is seen at 0.7623 and only a sustained breakout higher would change the bias to bullish. On the other side, the key support is seen at the level of 0.7513.

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Technical analysis on EUR/USD for June 14, 2018

Exactly in accordance with our strategy, the EURUSD pair fell towards 1.1740-1.17 support area and is now challenging yesterday's highs and resistance levels after the FOMC meeting. The up trend in EURUSD is not over. Our nearest target is 1.20 and we remain bullish.

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Yellow rectangle - support area

Magenta line - expectation

So far so good. The price has pulled back towards our yellow rectangle area, and after the FOMC the bounce has started. The price is about to break the recent highs and continue its bounce towards the cloud resistance of 1.20. As long as we are trading above yesterday's lows I will remain bullish on EURUSD, expecting 1.20 as my minimum target.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 14, 2018

Gold price held its $1,290 support yesterday and is trying to break out above the first short-term important resistance and out of the shorter-term trading range. Gold price has the potential for a move higher towards $1,320-30 over the coming sessions as we have been saying all this time Gold is trading between $1,280-$1,300.

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Green line - target

Yellow line -medium-term resistance (broken)

Blue lines -short-term trading range

Magenta lines- medium-term trading range

Gold price has broken above the yellow resistance trend line. Gold price is about to break above the blue trading range. This can give Gold strength for a move above the medium-term trading range and above the resistance of triple top at $1,307. First target is at $1,320 and next at $1,330. I remain bullish on Gold.

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BITCOIN Analysis for June 13, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains which lead the price to reside below $6,500 currently. Though there has been certain probability of bouncing off from the $6,500 area, as per the recent prediction by Bitcoin developer Willy Woo, the price has structured already to proceed much lower towards the $5,000-5,500 area in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to push lower below $6,000 with a daily close which may lead to impulsive bearish pressure in coming days. As the price remains below $8,000, the bearish bias is expected to persist.

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