EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 13 (analyzing yesterday). US inflation hasn't helped. Euro bulls bringing

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

I paid attention to the 1.1773 level yesterday, which the pair gradually approached in the first half of the day. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that a signal to sell the euro was generated after a false breakout formed at this level. However, it failed to materialize even despite good US inflation data, which caused another breakout of this range as well as the euro's recovery in the US session. Then, the pair's repeated decline and an update of the 1.1773 level from top to bottom caused a buy signal to form, which brought more than 50 points profit. At the moment, the bulls are focused on the resistance of 1.1843, where it will be possible to observe the first profit taking on long positions, and this will most likely happen after the release of inflation data in Germany. If we trade and consolidate in this range, you can continue to open long positions in anticipation of updating the high of 1.1906, which is still what buyers are aiming for at the end of this week. A more optimal scenario for buying the euro is a downward correction of the pair to the support area of 1.1773 as well as forming the next false breakout there, along with a rebound from the moving averages. If bulls are not active at this level, I recommend postponing purchases for a rebound from the low of 1.1714 in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for August 4 recorded an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, which tells us that investors are still interested in risky assets, even at such high prices. Many are betting on a further weakening of the US dollar before the US election and a more difficult situation with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The report shows an increase in long non-commercial positions from the level of 242,127 to the level of 262,109, while short non-profit positions decreased from 84,568 to 81,461. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position sharply jumped to 180,648, up from 157,559 a week earlier, indicating increased interest in buying risky assets even at current high prices.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers will not rush to return to the market and will most likely wait for the release of the German inflation report. A good indicator will only increase the demand for the euro, so forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1843 will be a signal to open short positions, by analogy, as it was yesterday with the 1.1773 level. The signal was good, but fortune was not on the side of the bears. If there is no activity and a downward movement from the resistance of 1.1843, it is best to postpone short positions for a rebound from a larger weekly high in the area of 1.1906 in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important task for the bears is to pull down and consolidate under the support of 1.1773, where the moving averages currently are kept, since only such a scenario will return pressure on the euro and lead to a repeated return to the area of the low of 1.1714, where I recommend taking profits.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by buyers to return the market under their control.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1815 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1773 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on August 13? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair both slightly corrected and slightly grew last night. Unfortunately, it was quite problematic to work with a buy signal from the MACD indicator (marked with circles in the illustration) last night, but could it be for the better? In other articles, we have already mentioned that the euro/dollar pair is now inside a sideways channel, which is capped at approximately 1.17 and 1.19. Thus, at the moment quotes have reached the middle of this channel. But a rebound from the bottom does not necessarily mean a rise to the top. The pair can trade in the lower half of the channel too. Thus, we would say that the pair can move in any direction from the current price values. Moreover, we are inclined to the option that there will be a new downward movement, since the price did not manage to overcome yesterday's high of 1.1817.

Only German inflation will be published in the EU on Thursday, August 13, but this figure is not extremely important for the euro/dollar pair. Meanwhile, in America, novice traders could pay attention to the report on claims for unemployment benefits, however, it does not have any effect on the pair's movement at this time. Therefore, novice traders will not have anything to pay attention to today. General fundamental topics throughout the day may provide some new data, but the topic of coronavirus in the United States is slowly disappearing from the front pages of publications, as the epidemic itself is waning. At the moment, there is no new information on the financial assistance package for the US economy. US President Donald Trump also continues to make "funny" statements, which rarely do not try to mislead. There is also silence in the confrontation between China and the United States. Therefore, we advise novice players to be sure to watch the feed of economic and political news from time to time, especially concerning America. But it is unlikely that important and powerful information will come from the United States today.

The following scenarios are possible on August 13:

1) Buying the pair became relevant after the price consolidated above the descending channel. However, as we mentioned above, traders failed to update the high on Wednesday, so we would recommend returning to buying the euro after another round of correction, at least. The closest target for the pair's growth is 1.1830.

2) Selling the currency pair is more promising now. After the night correctional cycle, buyers could not continue to push the pair up, so a new MACD sell signal (it can form by the end of this hour) will enable novice traders to reopen sales with targets located in the lower area of the sideways channel, for example, near the 1. 1724 level. You can expect a stronger downward movement for the pair after breaking the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1696.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 13, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Venezuela's Bolivarian Council of Mayors has signed a so-called "National Tax Harmonization Agreement" for 305 municipalities in the country, including Petro as a means of tax collection and sanctions. This cryptocurrency is being used more and more as a result of the new campaign.

According to the government, Venezuelan vice president Delcy Rodriguez will be responsible for implementing a single taxpayer register through a digital consultation tool. She will also be responsible for creating an information exchange and monitoring system for companies to record payments in state cryptocurrencies.

There are 335 mayors in Venezuela, 91% of whom remain under the mandate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, PSUV. Only 30 mayors are led by opponents of the Nicolas Maduro regime. Municipalities that are not backed by Maduro continue to levy taxes in the Venezuelan fiat currency Bolivar as some of them do not have the appropriate technology to process Petro payments.

The Venezuelan government has announced that nearly 15% of all fuel payments at gas stations across the country are made through Petro. This increase came in the first week of a new state-supported plan to promote the widespread use of the token. According to local media reports, 40% of PTR transactions took place at foreign fuel stations.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has tested the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $395.67 and this is where the lest local high was made after the bounce form the level of $365.01. Bull will have to push harder in order to move higher towards the yearly high located at the level of $414.15, but for now the market keeps trading inside of the range located between the levels of $362.60 - $407.03. The weekly time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $458.63

WR2 - $430.13

WR1 - $411.58

Weekly Pivot - $386.08

WS1 - $366.85

WS2 - $340.34

WS3 - $321.13

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the violation of the level of $351, Ethereum is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $86.10, but the zone around $300 - $308 is an important technical support as well.

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Control zones for USD/CAD on August 13, 2020

The quote closed below the WCZ 1/2 1.3279-1.3266 yesterday, which indicates a significant change in the direction of trading. Sell transactions came to the fore, with which any price increase can be used as a basis to sell the pair. The absorption pattern towards the rise of the Canadian dollar will serve as an entry point, the target of which is the WCZ 1.3160-1.3137.

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The decline of prices observed for the last three days has canceled the rally that occurred at the end of last week. Such made holding sell transactions possible today, and until the end of the week.

But if the quote closes today near yesterday's high, an alternative scenario will develop, with which sell transactions will be profitable only after the quote tested the WKZ 1/2 1.3359-1.3346, where the most favorable price levels will be obtained.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 13, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The New York State Department of Financial Services has published a green list of 8 virtual currencies approved for sale and trading and 10 approved for safekeeping by licensed entities.

According to an update published on the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) website, state regulators have approved 8 cryptocurrencies for listing and trading. These tokens include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Binance USD, Gemini Dollar, Pax Gold, and Paxos Standard Token. NYDFS has also given the green light to the same coins for storage, plus XRP and Ethereum Classic.

"Any entity licensed by the DFS to do virtual currency business in New York may use the Green List coins for an approved purpose," the NYDFS said.

However, he explained that any licensed company must inform the regulatory authority before using any token on the green list.

The announcement also stated that NYDFS has the right to remove any token from the green list at any time, limit the activity of any coin, and remove the list entirely.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has stopped the rally at the level of $11,645 after the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the H4 time frame chart. The momentums has decreased and now is seen below the fifty level again, so the odds for the pull-back are high. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $11,395 and $11,317. The key short-term support is still located at the level of $10,940 - $10,890, so for now all the price action is being considered as sideway trend that might turn into a correction. The weekly time frame trend is still up and in a case of a breakout above the level of $12,035, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $12,269.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,981

WR2 - $12,405

WR1 - $12,075

Weekly Pivot - $11,487

WS1 - $11,099

WS2 - $10,537

WS3 - $10,124

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the level of $12,000 violation, the Bitcoin is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next key target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712 and $15,000. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897, but the zone around $9,500 - $10,500 is an important technical support as well.

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Control zones for EURUSD on 08/13/20

We are testing the WCZ 1/2 1.1811-1.1802 today, which is a defining moment when building a trading plan. If today's trade closes below the zone, then sales of the instrument will come to the fore, and the first target of the fall will be the current week's low.

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Working in a downward direction will make it possible for us to continue forming a downward compensatory pattern, the goal of which is to return to the monthly control zone in July.

If today's trade closes above the WCZ 1/2, it will enable us to look for purchases at tomorrow's European session. The growth target will be the weekly CZ 1.1911-1.1893. Working in an upward direction will not violate the accumulation zone that has already formed. The main growth boundary is still the monthly high.

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.Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 13, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced back from the level of 1.1711 and is currently trading just below the 61% Fibonacci retracement again. The nearest technical resistance is seen between the levels of 1.1790 - 1.1822. Any violation of this zone will extend the rally towards the next key technical resistance seen at the level of 1.908.The weekly time frame trend is still up and the momentum is above the fifty level, but the market is trying to bounce from the oversold conditions, so odds for local wave up are quite high. The nearest technical support for intraday traders is seen at the level of 1.1790.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2109

WR2 - 1.2010

WR1 - 1.1819

Weekly Pivot - 1.1788

WS1 - 1.1633

WS2 - 1.1672

WS3 - 1.1572

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend, so all pull-backs and corrections should be used to accumulate the EUR. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.2000 - 1.2089. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 13, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been testing the upper boundary of the horizontal range located between the levels of 1.3067 - 1.3017. There is so far no indication of any bearish pressure and all the sideway price action looks like a typical correction in an up trend, but when the level of 1.3075 is clearly violated, then the market might rally towards the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of 1.3100. The key technical support is seen at the level of 1.2979, so as long as the market trades above it, the odds for another wave up are high. Any breakout above the local high at 1.3121 might accelerate the rally towards the level of 1.3169.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3353

WR2 - 1.3261

WR1 - 1.3146

Weekly Pivot - 1.3060

WS1 - 1.2937

WS2 - 1.2860

WS3 - 1.2735

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Control zones for AUDUSD on 08/13/20

The pair's growth from yesterday continued to form an accumulation zone in the medium term. This makes it possible to search for favorable prices for selling the instrument. The WCZ 1/2 0.7209-0.7200 is the main resistance. The probability of renewing the weekly low is 75% while the pair is trading below the specified zone.

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Working towards weakening the Australian dollar may become the main one in the second half of August.

Breaking the descending pattern will require closing today's trading above WCZ 1/2. This will indicate a new bullish pattern being formed. The growth target will be the weekly CZ 0.7308-0.7290. If this model gets implemented, then purchases will come to the fore at tomorrow's Asian session.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for NZDUSD on 08/13/2020

The resumption of the pair's fall is a logical continuation of the descending medium-term model. The first goal of the decline is the weekly control zone of 0.6537-0.6522, which has already been tested. yesterday. To continue the fall, it will be necessary to close today's trading below the weekly control zone. This will open the way for the formation of a reversal model of the higher timeframe.

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The movement of the last four days indicates the presence of interest from large sellers. While the pair is trading below the WCZ, it does not make sense to talk about a reversal.

An alternative growth model will be developed if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for growth and updating the monthly maximum. The probability of development of this model is 30%, which makes it auxiliary.

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Daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 13, 2020

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GBP/JPY is moving higher slowly. Since resistance is at 139.18, we should see that bulls resume buying GBP, but no, they are likely to buy, but in a slow-motion pace. However, we expect the 140.35 taget to be tested soon to complete blue wave iii and set the stage for a sideways consolidation in blue wave iv towards 138.55 and maybe even closer to 137.92 before pushing higher again.

Support is now seen at 138.83 which ideally will be able to protect the downside for the expected test of the 140.35 target.

R3: 140.35

R2: 140.00

R1: 139.55

Pivot: 139.11

S1: 138.83

S2: 138.55

S3: 137.92

Trading recommendation:

We are long on GBP from 135.43 and we will lift our stop higher to 138.75. We will take profit on 50% of our long position at 140.25

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 13, 2020

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There was no time for a second decline closer to 124.00. EUR/JPY completed wave iv at 124.28 and broke right through the short-term important resistance at 125.43 for the next impulsive rally higher. The minimum target for this rally is seen at 126.68, but it's more likely that we will see resistance in the 127.23 - 127.43 area tested. Ideally we will see a rally closer to 129.26, but as always we need to take it all in baby-steps.

Support is now seen at 125.71 and again at 125.43, but only a break below support at 124.84 will indicate that wave v is already completed.

R3: 127.23

R2: 126.68

R1: 126.20

Pivot: 125.71

S1: 125.43

S2: 125.19

S3: 124.84

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR again at 125.44 and we have placed our stop at 124.80. We will take profit on 50% of our long position at 127.15.

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EUR/USD Price Movement On August 13, 2020.

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According to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is moving sideways now. You can see the current price in the Maroon Rectangle Box, but for now Fiber may go down approximately between the levels of 1.1764 - 1.1742. This downward movement is already confirmed by the William %R Oscillator that is already at the Overbought level (-20). Although, the downward movement will be automatically canceled if the Fiber goes up and moves above the 1.1817 level.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/GBP Price Movement On August 13, 2020.

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The EUR/GBP pair is moving sideways now. This pair is on the way to the 0.9013 - 0.8991 range. This downward retrace is already confirmed by the William %R Oscillator that is already above the Overbought level (-20). As long as the EUR/GBP pair is not going to move back and resume the uptrend to close above the 0.9052 level, all levels below the current price will act as the target.

(Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 13, 2020

EUR/USD

The market is not yet strong enough to push the euro. The single currency managed to break free of pressure and gained 44 points yesterday. Trading volumes were slightly above average. The Marlin oscillator is directed upwards, the price has overcome the target level of 1.1806 this morning. The price is facing a significant target at 1.1906 - the resistance of the upper border of the price channel of the monthly timeframe.

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The intermediate target on the way to 1.1906 is the MACD line at 1.1840 on the four-hour chart. Consolidating the price above this level will allow the price to continue growing. Strong fundamental factors are needed for such a consolidation with subsequent growth. They may not exist today, but the eurozone trade balance for June and even more significant data for the United States - retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence - will be released tomorrow. The US data will obviously determine the euro's further direction.

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At the moment, we remain on the side of the dollar, therefore, we regard the current growth as a correction from the decline on August 5-11.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 13, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling was down 13 points on Wednesday, but the overall weakening of the US dollar prevented the price from doing more. The price is slightly growing today in the Asian session, strengthening the consolidation at the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. The Marlin oscillator is steadily declining, indicating the price's direction in the near future. The pound's target remains the same - 1.2912 at the Fibonacci level of 76.4%.

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The price develops below the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart - a potential downward trend. But Marlin has formed a convergence with the price, which can increase consolidation over time.

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As a result, we believe that the horizontal trend will continue for the British pound above the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. The subsequent price consolidation below it (1.3028), as expected on Friday, when the data on retail sales and industrial production in the US is released, will launch a new wave of decline to 1.2912 - to the Fibonacci level of 76.4%.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 13, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar sluggishly reacted to the US dollar's fall (-0.34%) and the rise in oil (2.24% WTI), adding only 19 points yesterday. The aussie reached the target level of 0.7190 this morning. Now, according to the main scenario, a price reversal to support 0.7070 is likely, since after a fourfold divergence with the Marlin oscillator, we do not expect a fivefold divergence, which practically has not been seen in history.

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The price also met the resistance of the MACD line (moving blue) on the four-hour chart, which it could not overcome. In addition, the price remains below the red balance indicator line, that is, the market balance is kept in a downward trend. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turns down from the border of the growth area. By a combination of factors, we are waiting for the price to move to the target level of 0.7070.

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Consolidating the price above 0.7190 will allow the price to rise to the target level of 0.7240. This is an alternative scenario.

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Control zones for GBP/USD on 06/13/20

Yesterday's decline of the pair continued the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone. The lower border of the flat is the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2969-1.2948. The nearest resistance is the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 1.3123-1.3113. If the pair fails to consolidate above the specified zone, then sales will remain the main ones this week.

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Working within the flat implies quick fixing of a part of the position at the nearest support and resistance levels.

An alternative growth model will be developed if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/4. This will open the way for the pair to grow and update the monthly maximum in the near term. It is important to understand. that the growth of July remains the main direction for holding long positions.

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Daily CZ - day control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. A zone formed by important marks of the futures market that change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on August 13, 2020

USD/JPY

The US stock index recovered in an upward trend, gaining 1.40% (S&P 500) on Wednesday. It was followed by the USD/JPY pair, adding 42 points, marking the target level of 107.00 as the high of the day. Now the pair has consolidated in an upward direction - the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is developing in the growth zone. After overcoming the 107.00 level, we expect the price to rise to the second target of 107.35.

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The trend is also upward for all indicators on the four-hour chart. The price is growing above the balance and MACD indicator lines, Marlin is slightly decreasing (correcting), but remains in the growth zone. We are waiting for the correction to be completed and a new attack of the price at the 107.00 level with a subsequent rise to 107.35.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 13. The UK is mired in the worst recession in its history. Trump will force the development

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -97.9586

If the European currency was trading indistinctly during the third trading day of the week, the British pound resumed its downward movement. For several days, the British currency has not been able to determine the direction of movement. There is a classic situation when "some can't, others don't want to". Bears can't now, but bulls don't want to. Moreover, the latter can be understood. All epidemiological factors have been worked out, and the epidemic is beginning to recede slowly in the United States, so it is no longer possible to sell the dollar based on this factor. Further, the political crisis remains, however, it does not have a direct impact on the economy, unlike the epidemiological crisis. The social crisis has also eased somewhat, although riots and clashes with the police continue in some American cities. And traders have already worked out the economic downturn with a vengeance. Since March 15, the pound has risen by 16-17 cents, which is quite a lot. As in the case of the euro currency, a correction is needed. However, it turns out that no one wants to buy the US dollar. Although all the factors that pushed the dollar down have already been worked out, traders are still afraid of investing in the US currency. No one knows when a particular crisis will make itself felt again. Moreover, most experts call the future presidential elections almost the most important in the history of the United States. To put it as simply as possible, the political and foreign economic course of the country for the next four years depends on who will remain in power, Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Under Trump, the US has worsened relations with everyone it could. In particular, with China and Russia, as well as withdrew from several international organizations (for example, WHO). In addition, Washington has already imposed sanctions and duties as part of trade wars against a good dozen countries. The course of Joe Biden, if he comes to power, is expected to be much more lenient, aimed not at constant confrontations, accusations, conflicts with other international players. And most importantly, Biden is expected to mend relations with China. It is clear that no full truce is in question, but Biden can at least bring the trade deal to a conclusion. Thus, until the election, the US currency may continue to remain under market pressure, despite the fact that technical factors speak in favor of its strengthening. Strengthening of the dollar = falling of the pound. And the fall of the pound now would also be very logical, since there is no positive news about the progress of negotiations between London and Brussels.

On Wednesday, August 12, UK GDP for the second quarter was published. We spoke about this report about a week and a half ago, calling it extremely important. It turned out that the British economy collapsed in the second quarter by 20.4%, which is just 0.1%, which does not match the forecasts of experts. At the end of June, GDP growth was slightly higher than expected, +8.7% m/m. Industrial production also rose slightly more than expected by traders, amounting to + 9.3% m/m. However, the very fact of losing 20.4% of GDP could not but cause a sell-off of the British currency. The question is, how strong will be the fall in the pound?

Meanwhile, the American newspaper The New York Times believes that Donald Trump will seek permission to use any vaccine in the United States. Recall that just a few days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the creation of the world's first vaccine against "coronavirus", which will now be used in Russia. The Russian vaccine was immediately criticized by the leaders of European countries and by Donald Trump himself, as well as by many virologists and epidemiologists. The essence of the criticism is simple: the vaccine has not passed all the necessary clinical trials and can not be considered completely safe and 100% effective. However, for Donald Trump, according to The New York Times, it does not matter. The important thing is that one of the main competitors has a vaccine, but America does not. Thus, Trump can seek to accelerate work in the invention of the American vaccine, which can also lead to unfair, defective research and testing. Researchers in America are concerned that trials of some vaccines may be completed ahead of schedule, just in time for the November 3 election. We have already said that almost the only chance of Trump winning the election is to develop a vaccine against COVID-2019 in the United States. If the vaccine can be obtained, then Trump will certainly take credit for it and can significantly increase his political ratings.

In the UK and America, no important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday, August 13. Thus, the influence of the fundamental background will be absent, and the influence of the fundamental background is unlikely to be strong. In recent weeks, there has been a situation in which the pair can neither continue the upward trend nor start a downward trend. Usually, if the bears do not take the initiative for some time, then the bulls return to the market. However, this also requires technical signals and confirmations. The fact that sellers are now extremely weak does not require any proof. The pair cannot go below the 1.3000 level. Lower timeframes also show that the price is now more in a sideways movement than in a trend one. Thus, technical factors are again in the first place. And the pound/dollar pair is now squeezed between the Murray levels of "8/8"-1.3184 and "2/8"-1.3000. Thus, it is better to use lower timeframes for trading this pair now.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 91 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Thursday, August 13, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2944 and 1.3126. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a round of upward movement inside the side channel of 1.3000 – 1.3180.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3031

S2 – 1.3000

S3 – 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3123

R3 – 1.3153

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe is located inside the side channel and is currently moving down. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to either trade the pair between the boundaries of the 1.3000 – 1.3180 side channel, or wait for the end of the flat.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on August 13. COT report. Britain's Treasury Secretary urges to prepare

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair also continues to trade without a definite trend on August 12. If the euro currency was squeezed into two side channels, then approximately the same thing happened with the pound sterling. The pair has been trading between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines for the past few days, and in recent weeks it has been trading between the Senkou Span B line and the 1.3169 level. The story is the same. Bears can't, bulls don't want to. We are witnessing a flat for the second most popular currency pair. If traders manage to gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line (or the 1.2980 level), then the chances of a new downward trend will significantly increase. The upward trend line, built recently, did not deny the pair any support yesterday. The quotes overcame it several times during the day.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels moved down on the 15-minute timeframe, and changed their direction of movement every day, which is absolutely normal for a flat. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which was released on Friday, finally matched what is happening now in the market. Recall that two COT reports previously showed a decrease in the net position of non-commercial traders, which, in fact, means that the bullish mood is starting to weaken. That is, the most important category of "non-commercial" traders reduced (roughly speaking) purchases of the British pound during the past two weeks and at the same time the UK currency became more expensive. However, the latest COT report finally showed an increase in the number of Buy-contracts for non-commercial traders, by almost 5,000. At the same time, they also closed Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 3,500. Thus, the total net position for this category increased by 8,500. The pound lost no more than 170 points at the end of last week and the beginning of the new week, if you count from the last high. This is very small in the context of COT reports and the concept of a trend. This is not even a correction in the medium term.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was almost unambiguous on Wednesday, but, nevertheless, did not provoke a serious reaction from market participants. One GDP report was enough to send the pound into a knockdown. All three GDP indicators for the second quarter in the UK showed the strongest cuts. But! On the one hand, these are the numbers that traders were waiting for, and on the other – the currency can not decline if its country has such economic problems. However, the market is run by traders, that is, real people and companies. If they don't want to get rid of the pound, then no statistics or news will make them do it. At the same time, Head of Treasury Rishi Sunak said: "A few months ago, I said hard times are coming and today's figures show hard times are here. Hundreds of thousands of Brits have already lost their job and many more will (which is not true for unemployment rates-approx. author). We have an ambition to deliver upon our priorities and the promises we made, we've been through hopefully this once-in-a-lifetime episode, it has had an enormous impact on our economy, on jobs, our public finances and that means there are tough choices to come." This statement should also have been enough for the pound to fall by a hundred points... especially considering that the report on US inflation came out very encouraging.

There are two main options for the development of events on August 13:

1) Buyers as a whole continue to be dominant, but in general the pair began to move sideways. They did not manage to gain a foothold above the previous local high of 1.3169, thus, we recommend opening new purchases of the British currency, but not before breaking the 1.3169 level while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3275. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 90 points. You can also try to buy the pound when consolidating above the Kijun-sen, but this signal will be weak.

2) Bears continue to remain below the Kijun-sen line, but cannot overcome the Senkou Span B line. Thus, we advise you to wait until the Senkou Span B line (1.3010) has been overcome and only then open short positions with targets at the levels of 1.2956 and 1.2865. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 30 to 120 points.

We also recommend exploring the fundamental background in these articles:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 13. Knight's Move by Joe Biden. Kamala Harris appointed the post of vice president. US inflation begins to rise. Traders are selling the dollar again

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 13. UK is mired in its worst recession in its history. Trump will accelerate the development of the US vaccine against coronavirus

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on August 13. COT report. Traders at a loss and do not know which direction

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair again turned around in the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 and rose to the Kijun-sen line on the hourly timeframe of August 12. The price has been located between these two resistances in the last few days. Thus, we have two types of flat at once. The first is bounded by the 1.1702-1.1727 area at the bottom and the 1.1884-1.1910 area at the top, the second by the 1.1702-1.1727 area at the bottom and the Kijun-sen line at the top. In any case, the trend movement is now completely absent. Market participants continue to trade the pair between the specified areas and lines. Neither bears nor bulls have enough strength to take the pair out of the 1.17-1.19 range.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe after traders failed to overcome the 1.1702-1.1727 area, which is quite logical. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, showed that the mood of professional traders did not change at all during the last reporting week (please be reminded that the report is published with a three-day delay) on July 29-August 4. The "non-commercial" category of traders opened 19,354 Buy-contracts and closed 3,561 Sell-contracts during this time period. Therefore, the net position for the most important category of traders has grown by 23,000 at once, which is a very large and eloquent indication of the current mood of the major players. The most important thing is that the report exactly matches what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the euro as a whole continued to grow until August 4. The euro did not suffer any losses during the next three trading days of the week. Thus, so far, everything is going to the point that the next COT report will show that non-commercial traders are increasing purchases. The pair lost about 120 points in the first two days of the week, but this drop is too weak to be reflected in the COT report.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair did not change again on Wednesday. We can only state that, according to the Johns Hopkins Institute, the number of daily recorded cases of coronavirus in the United States is decreasing. Recall that the coronavirus epidemic was probably the most significant reason for the dollar's fall in the last three months, along with the strongest fall in the US economy. Traders completely ignored Wednesday's macroeconomic reports. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump makes a new discouraging statement: "If I don't win the election, China will take over the United States. You will have to learn Chinese." Trump has again criticized the possible new US president Joe Biden, who continues to lead according to all the ratings and polls. No important macroeconomic publications in the United States or in the European Union on Thursday. Therefore, traders have no choice but to trade according to technical factors, as well as to continue to enjoy the regular "funny stories" from Trump.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 13:

1) Buyers continue to wait for the right moment to start actively trading again. To make new purchases of the euro, you are advised to wait until the price consolidates above the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910. Then we will recommend buying the pair while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2019. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 80 points. If the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line (1.1801), you can also open longs with the target of 1.1884.

2) Bears continue to experience big problems and cannot go below the 1.1715 level. We recommend opening sales after breaking through the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 while aiming for 1.1579. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 90 points. You can also consider small sales when the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line with the target of 1.1715.

We also recommend exploring the fundamental background in these articles:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 13. Knight's Move by Joe Biden. Kamala Harris appointed the post of vice president. US inflation begins to rise. Traders are selling the dollar again

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 13. UK is mired in its worst recession in its history. Trump will accelerate the development of the US vaccine against coronavirus

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 13. "Knight's Move" by Joe Biden. Appointment of Kamala Harris as Vice President. Inflation

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -5.0455

The EUR/USD currency pair was trading very indistinctly on Tuesday and Wednesday. After the traders managed to overcome the moving average line, we counted on the formation of a new downward trend or at least a significant downward correction. We have already listed the technical reasons for this option several times. The most important of them is the banal need for correction (traders fix profits on previously opened positions, which leads to a movement in the opposite direction). However, so far, the euro/dollar pair has managed to pass down "cosmic" 200 points. It seems to be not a little, however, we remind you that over the past three months, the euro currency has risen in price against the dollar by 11-12 cents. So 2 cents down is very little. We expect to move at least 400-500 points. However, in order for this movement to begin at all, it requires that traders start reducing long positions or start opening short ones. It seems that everything is extremely difficult for market participants with shorts now. It is still very difficult to find reasons to buy US currency. We have already repeatedly talked about the "four American crises" and it seems that they continue to hold the US dollar back even from technical growth. Thus, in the near future, the bulls may become more active, which may provoke the resumption of the upward trend.

On Wednesday, August 12, the most interesting publications were in the Foggy Albion. However, there was something in the European Union and America. Industrial production in the Eurozone in June fell by 12.3% year-on-year and grew by 9.1% month-on-month. Both values were worse than the forecasts. However, instead of continuing to decline, the European currency quotes again turned to growth. In the United States, the consumer price index for July was published, which also unexpectedly exceeded the forecast values. The monthly indicator increased by 0.6%, the annual rate - by 1%, and core inflation was 1.6% y/y, thus approaching the Fed's target level. However, this is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the US economy can really recover at a fairly rapid pace, since it has been pouring a lot of money. On the other hand, this recovery was preceded by a severe fall. And it is precisely because of the scale of this decline that growth can be relatively strong.

To the great regret of all supporters of investing in the US dollar, the fundamental situation in the US is not changing for the better. In cities such as Portland and Seattle, mass rallies and protests continue, which Trump is again going to suppress with the help of the National Guard. The number of daily recorded cases of "coronavirus" has started to decrease, but remains at very high levels (40-50 thousand). The political crisis cannot be described in two words, but it continues to rage. Democrats and Republicans have not been able to agree on the size of a new stimulus package for the economy. Donald Trump signed several executive orders bypassing Congress to provide assistance to Americans affected by the pandemic and crisis and now may face new unpleasant consequences for himself. Well, the economy, although it started to recover, fell too much in the second quarter. In general, wherever you throw - a wedge is everywhere. But the most important thing is that news continues to come from America, which at best is very difficult to interpret as positive or negative, at worst - they are negative.

For example, yesterday it became known that the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has chosen his deputy. It was Senator Kamala Harris from California. All would be fine, but if Biden wins the election, then Harris will become the first female vice president in US history. Moreover, Harris is of Jamaican and Indian descent and dark skin color, which adds to the piquancy of the whole situation, given the recent racist scandal, thanks to which rallies and protests have continued in some cities in America for three months. We believe that in this way, Joe Biden made the wisest "knight's move". Now he can count on additional votes in elections from the black population, as well as from American women. "These are very difficult times. For the first time in history, we are facing three historical crises simultaneously. We are facing the worst pandemic in 100 years, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and racial injustice. And we have a President who failed to defeat a virus that continues to take the lives of Americans, destroyed our economy, and fanned the flames of hatred and division," Joe Biden said after Harris was appointed. It is noteworthy that just a year ago, Harris was fighting for the Democratic presidential nomination and accused Biden of racism.

Meanwhile, in the US, another poll was conducted, which showed that former Vice President Joe Biden is still ahead of Trump in the ratings by 10%. It is noted that Biden retains the lead not only in the total number of votes, but also in key American States. Thus, less than three months before the election, Donald Trump's political ratings continue to be poor. Donald Trump himself continues to criticize Biden, as he should before the election. After the appointment of Harris, Trump said that "Biden, with the arrival of Harris, cedes control of the country to the radical mafia". Trump believes that this tandem will lead to increased taxes, reduced police funding, and a drop in the number of jobs in the energy sector. In general, the situation before the elections is becoming more interesting.

On the penultimate trading day of the week, no publications are planned in the European Union. In Germany - the consumer price index for July will be released, which is unlikely to cause any reaction from traders, and in the United States - a report on applications for unemployment benefits that is insignificant at this time. Thus, today, traders are likely to be deprived of a macroeconomic background. However, judging by yesterday's reports, the euro/dollar pair does not really need this background, market participants still do not pay attention to it, and are also very afraid to buy the dollar. From a technical point of view, a return of quotes to the area above the moving average line will again return the pair to an upward trend. In this case, we can expect the continuation of the upward movement to the previous two local highs around the level of 1.1911.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 13 is 96 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1694 and 1.1886. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of the downward movement within the side channel of 1.1719 – 1.1911.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the sideways moving average, which indicates a flat. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to either trade between the borders of the side channel based on the signal of the Heiken Ashi indicator, or wait for the end of the flat and the resumption of the trend movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com