Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 24, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has pushed higher towards 1.1874 levels until now. Believe it or not, the pair is very close to fibonacci 0.618 resistance as seen on chart view here. The entire drop between 1.2092 through 1.1550 levels can be still defined as a potential leading diagonal (labelled as 5 waves down), terminating into wave (1); or it could be defined as an A-B-C corrective drop. The subsequent rally towards 1.1874 levels can be defined as wave A within an A-B-C counter trend rally or wave 1, within a 5 wave impulse rally that could lead to potential highs above 1.2092 levels. Having discussed both the wave counts here, the most common output for prices to take a direction from here is move south, at least towards 1.1650/1.1700 levels from here. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1880/90, while support is at 1.1700 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short again, risk above 1.2050, target at least 1.1650.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is looking to bottom out around 92.80 levels before reversing again. Please note that the index has unfolded into 5 waves impulse between 91.00 through 95.00 levels earlier, terminating into wave (1). The subsequent drop looks to be corrective in nature and is terminating into wave A or wave (2) (not labelled here). If this wave count holds to be true, then the most probable move should be on the north side. Immediate strong support is seen at 92.60/80 levels and resistance around 93.25, followed by 94.10/20 levels. Also please note that past resistance should be providing enough support for a bullish reversal around current levels.

Trading plan:

Look to remain long, stop at 91.00 and target 98.00.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major fundamental events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 24, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 111.65, which should limit the upside potential. The U.S. dollar remained subdued as the euro maintained its strength in face of upbeat euro zone business data and growth in the German economy.

As long as this key level is holding on the upside, look for a drop to 111.05. A break below this level would trigger another decline to 110.65.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 111.65 with a target at 111.95.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 111.65, Take Profit: 111.05

Resistance levels: 111.95, 112.40 and 112.70 Support Levels: 111.05, 110.65, 110.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 24, 2017

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USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair remains weak below its horizontal resistance level at 0.9845. Both the 50-period moving average is still on the downside, and calls for a new decline. Last but not least, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

In which case, as long as 0.9845 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.9795 and 0.9765 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9845, Take Profit: 0.9795

Resistance levels: 0.9870, 0.9900, and 0.9950

Support levels: 0.9795, 0.9765, and 0.9730

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Global macro overview for 24/11/2017

On Thursday, November 30, OPEC and non-cartel oil producers will meet at a meeting in Vienna. During the meeting, it is likely that the decision to extend the oil production limit until the end of 2018 will be made. The current agreement is in force until the end of March 2018 and provides a cut of 1.8 million barrels per day of production. The aim of the restrictions is to reduce the global oil surplus to a 5-year average, but after the year of the pact, the participants of the agreement are halfway there. According to OPEC data, in the period January-September 2017, inventories were reduced by 178 million barrels, but 159 million barrels remained to meet the target. This is why, as reported by Reuters, Saudi Arabia strongly lobbied for appropriate declarations to extend the agreement by the end of 2018 as soon as possible. Still, the decision is not entirely certain. Although Saudi Arabia may affect smaller members of the OPEC cartel, but Russia's stance, the largest non-OPEC oil producer, is uncertain. There is conflicting information from Moscow, including an extension of 6 months.

The market already has high expectations for the deal, which limits the oil growth potential. The fact that crude oil has been limited to responding to leaks and gossips makes the 9-month extension a reality, as the markets have almost completely discounted this scenario. If OPEC fails, the price may be significant.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken out from the golden channel again and now is trading above the 127%Fbo extension level. The next target is 161%Fibo extension at the level of 59.71. The next important technical resistance is seen at the weekly time frame chart at the level of 62.67. Please notice the extremely overbought market conditions which might indicate a pull-back towards the level of 58.20.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 24, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis at 147.90 has been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair validated a bullish reversal, and now stands above its key support at 147.80. The rising 50-period moving average is also playing a support role, and should call for a new bounce. The relative strength index is mixed to bullish.

In these perspectives, as long as 147.80 holds on the downside, look for a further advance to 148.65 and 149.95 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 147.80 with the target at 147.60.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 147.80, Take Profit: 148.54

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 148.65, 148.95, and 149.35

Support levels: 147.60, 147.30, and 146.90

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Global macro overview for 24/11/2017

The PMI Composite for the Eurozone pointed to the fastest pace of expansion since 2011. From partial data, we only received information from France and Germany (preliminary data), but in both cases, there were positive surprises. The two largest block economies remain in full swing and suggest that euro area GDP growth in the entire fourth quarter may reach 0.8% q/q. This would be above the ECB forecasts, but also expectations currently discounted by the market. A faster pace of development can mean shutting down the demand gap and rising wage pressure, and further inflation. This would be good news for the hawks in the ECB's Governing Council, as they might push for a postulate and close the asset acquisition program in September 2018. However, after yesterday's discussion at the ECB meeting, we know that hawks are in the minority. It further dominates the belief that the market can not prematurely give hints about one of the key monetary expansion projects, as this would lead to an overt and unwanted tightening of credit conditions. Based on such good economic data, it is more likely that the ECB will be forced to modify its forward guidance for faster normalization. But the central bank still has time, and the fears of the doves will rather keep them from changing the communication for a good few months. For this reason, the EUR / USD might remain neutral for the rest of this year, but the chances for a steady growth in next year to 1.24 or higher are high.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still locked in a horizontal area between two important zones: 131.15 - 131.37 (support) and 134.40 - 134. 51 (resistance). As long as one of this level is clearly violated, the sideways move will continue. The larger time frame trend remains bullish.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 24, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair went on trading higher amid the contradiction of stochastic negativity to positivity of the 55 moving average which is consolidating around 147.35 support. Let me remind you that the stability of this support allows us to wait until new positive momentum is gained that reinforces the bullish bias domination for the near-term and medium-term trading. The targets are placed at 150.00 followed by 151.50. We remind you that attempts to decline below 147.35 support will postpone the bullish rally. Instead, we expect correctional bearish trading that might push the price down to 146.60, followed by 144.30. The expected trading range for today is between 147.35 and 150.00

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for November 24, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair shows slightly positive trading after testing 111.00 level, influenced by stochastic's positivity. As a result, the pair is losing its bullish momentum clearly and approaching the overbought areas. This supports the chances of a bearsih move with a further correctional bearish bias. Therefore, we still suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming period, supported by the negative formation that has appeared on the above chart. We are waiting for a break of 111.00 to confirm an upward move towards 110.15 directly. Please note that breaching 111.90 will lead the price to start recovery attempts and stop the current correctional bearish pressure. The expected trading range for today is between 110.15 support and 111.90 resistance.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 24, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.6850. The pair remains bullish above its key support at 0.6850, which should limit any downside room. The relative strength index is mixed, but lacks downward momentum. Therefore, even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited.

As long as 0.6850 is not broken, look for a new rebound to 0.6895 and 0.6915 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6915, and 0.6950

Support levels: 0.6830, 0.6815, and 0.6790

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Daily analysis of Gold for November 24, 2017

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Overview

Gold price begins today's trading with calm positivity after a slight decline yesterday. We are waiting until gold tests 1,299.20 level initially. Let me remind you that breaching this level will confirm a further bullish wave towards 13,21.50 directly. In general, we will keep our bullish expectations on the intraday basis conditioned by settling above 1,281.17. Please note that the EMA50 keeps supporting the suggested bullish wave by carrying the price from below. The expected trading range for today is between 1,280.00 support and 1,305.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for November 24, 2017

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Overview

Silver price shows more sideways and tight trades, waiting to activate the positive signal provided by stochastic now. The metal gained momentum to continue the main bullish trend with the targets, beginning by breaching 17.43. This will confirm the way for Silver to extend price gains to reach 18.30. Therefore, our positive overview will remain active for the short term conditioned by holding above 16.56. The expected trading range for today is between 17.00 support and 17.43 resistance.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 24, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8,328. One of the first foreign cryptocurrency companies to take advantage of a Russian free trade zone is based in Hong Kong. Among other ventures, the company plans to build a cryptocurrency mining farm, a crypto museum, and provide training on a Russian island. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, a broken supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a successful re-test of the supply trendline and an oversold stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities The upward targets are set at the price of $8,372 (pivot reistance 1) and the price of $8,475.

Support/Resistance

$8.163 – Pivot level

$8.266 – Pivot reistance 1

$8.372 – Pivot reistance 2

$8.053 – Pivot support 1

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Analysis of Gold for November 24, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,285.73. According to the 15M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of $1,287.00, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic ocillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,290.00 (pivot level), $1,293.95 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of $1,297.00 (pivot reistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,293.95

R2: $1.297.00

R3: $1,300.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,287.37

S2: $1.283.91

S3: $1.280.81

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 24, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3331. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price broke falling wedge, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found an oversold stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3335 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 1.3362.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3282

R2: 1.3257

R3: 1.3225

Support levels:

S1: 1.3335

S2: 1.3362

S3: 1.3386

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 24, 2017

Bitcoin has been consolidating throughout the week after breaking above $8,000 price area. Price has been extremely volatile as well which is currently taken as the impact of the recent Bitcoin wallet hacks. Though Bitcoin is going through some tough challenges right now but it has proved its strength by overcoming any drawback several times in past few months. Bitcoin has been forming V-Pattern Shaped price action since it broke above the $6,000 price area whereas the market behavior for the cryptocurrency has been quite same after this pattern took place. As of the current scenario, price is currently residing above the thin Kumo Cloud, which is due to the consolidation it is going through, which does indicate that the price is still quite bullish nature despite the major pullbacks below $8,000 price area recently. The dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun Sen is also working as a support now for the price to push the price higher towards the range resistance of $8,300 price area. As the price remains above $7,500-$8,000 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards $9,000 price area.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 24, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 provided that bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Otherwise, further bearish decline would be expected towards 0.6680.

Trade recommendations:

If the recent bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 24, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry. ( Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of the previous Wednesday).

S/L should be placed above 1.1900. T/P levels to be located at 1.1700, 1.1590 and 1.1500.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 24, 2017

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Overview:

  • Currently price is seen at the point of 0.6772 on the H1 and H4 charts. The NZD/USD pair continues rising from the level of 0.6779 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6779 which represents thedoule bottom on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6880. So, buy above the level of 0.6880 with the first target at 0.6943 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.6940. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.6940 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top.
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  • However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6779, a further decline to 0.6632 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 24, 2017

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Overview:

  • The pivot point of USD/CHF pair is seen at the price pf 0.9831. The USD/CHF pair fell from the level of 0.9870 towards 0.9800.
  • It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9831 and 0.9783 in coming hours.
  • Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.9831 and 0.9870, which coincides with the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now.
  • Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.9831.
  • Thereupon, the price spot of 0.9831 remains a significant resistance zone.
  • Therefore, a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9831, sell below 0.9831 with the first targets at 0.9783 and 0.9743 (the double bottom is seen at 0.9704).
  • On the other hand, the stop loss should be set above the level of 0.9873.
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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for November 24, 2017

AUD/JPY has been quite corrective recently residing in the middle of the range from 84.00 to 85.70. AUD has been weaker amid recent economic reports and the infrastructure that pushed AUD down against JPY in comparison. This week, AUD has found minor support from the economic reports like Construction Work which showed an increase to 15.7% from the previous value of 9.8%. The positive economic report did not quite prove itself to be effective for the gains against JPY, leading to further correction in the market. On the JPY side, after the observance of Thanksgiving Day, today Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 53.8 from the previous figure of 52.8 which was expected to decrease to 52.6 that encouraged JPY to gain good momentum against AUD, leading to bullish rejection in the pair. As of the current scenario, JPY is expected to gain further momentum in the pair in the coming days against AUD amid better economic reports from Japan with market sentiment on the side. Moreover, if AUD cannot present better economic reports in the coming weeks, then the bearish bias of the market is expected to continue further.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing in the range of 84.00 to 85.70 with bullish rejection today which signals further bearish pressure in the pair. As the price remains below 85.70 resistance area and dynamic level of 20 EMA, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 84.00 in the future.

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Bitcoin analysis for 24/11/2017

The governor of the South Korean financial regulator said that there were no plans to oversee Bitcoin transactions. Choe Heung-sik, head of the Financial Leasing Service (FSS), said that since his agency does not consider the cryptocurrency to be a legitimate currency, FSS does not intend to oversee their trading. Choe added that the South Korean government believes that these currencies are used in speculation and not as a payment tool. Accordingly, the supervisory authority considers that they are not financial products:"Although we monitor the practice of trading in cryptographic currencies, we do not currently have plans to directly oversee exchanges. Surveillance will only come after the legal recognition of digital tokens as legitimate currency."

Choe's comments emerged as the growing popularity of the cryptocurrency in South Korea and could have been due to a recent failure of the country's largest Bithumb stock exchange, which recently experienced technical disruption, losing users with millions of dollars in capital.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price tried to break out below the dashed black intraday trend line, but bounced from the technical support at the level of $7,886 and quickly returned back above it. No new high was made yet as the momentum is still diminishing. The market keeps consolidating the gains, but looks more weaker as the correction to the downside might occur any time now.

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Trading plan for 24/11/2017

The US Dollar is going through a moderate rebound with the help of rising yields on government bonds. But the liquidity conditions remain poor, so volatility is not great at the moment. EUR / USD is close to 1.1850, while the GBP / USD is losing slightly below 1.3290. The stock market in Japan and China is more alive. Oil does not leave the peaks.

On Friday 24th of November, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on Ifo Business Climate, Ifo Current Assesment and Ifo Expectations sentiment data from Germany and Flash Manufacturing, Sevices and Composite PIM reading from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 24/11/2017:

Generally, the Ifo sentiment data are expected to slightly beat the last month figures. Ifo Business Climate is expected at the level of 116.6, Ifo Current Assesment is expected at the level of 125.0 and Ifo Expectation - at the level of 108.8. It is worth to notice, that the Ifo survey was made before the recent crisis in the German politics. Negotiations to form a new governing coalition in Germany collapsed this week, which could lead to a potentially unstable minority government. This political uncertainty has a knock-on effect on the German economy, but it also makes it harder to pursue further integration in Europe.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is clearly trying to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1880, but the market conditions remain overbought, the momentum is still weak and even starts to form a bearish divergence. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1823.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD bounces from support

The price of USD/CAD has bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.2675 (50%Fibo) for the second time. The oversold market conditions are helping the bulls to move towards the level of 1.2731, but the key resistance to the upside is still at the level of 1.2836.

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Market Snapshot: DAX Head & Shoulders pattern ready?

The price of German DAX index has finished the right shoulder of the Head & Shoulders technical pattern and now is ready to go below the level of 12,911 points. The neckline target projection is around the level of 12,503. The level of 12, 849 is the key level to the downside.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 24, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has continued going upwards, as price has gained 120 pips since Wednesday. The resistance line at 1.1850 is under siege (having been tested several times) and it would soon be breached to the upside as price goes for another resistance line at 1.1900.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has continued going downwards, as price has lost 120 pips since Wednesday. The support level at 0.9800 is being besieged by bears (having been tested already) and it would soon be breached to the downside as price goes for another support level at 0.9750.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has had some faint bullish effort, and it is currently consolidating. There is a vivid Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and price is currently above the accumulation territory at 1.3300, going towards the distribution territory at 1.3350 (which would be exceeded this week or next).

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has become bearish since November 6. Price has gone down by more than 330 pips since then. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend, especially when momentum returns to the market. Price is currently below the supply level at 111.50 and it would reach the demand level at 111.00 any time, even exceeding it.

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EUR/JPY: There is a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the EUR/JPY cross. However, the cross is kind of consolidating. The bearish movement is expected to be renewed when volatility arises in the market (especially as long as the Yen continues to strengthen). In the next several trading days, the demand zones at 131.50, 130.00 and 129.50 could be attained.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 24, 2017

The Dollar index is very close to our short-term bearish targets of 93.10-92.50. The trend remains bearish in the short-term. The Dollar index is could already have completed or is near completion of the downward move from 95. At least a short-term bounce will follow.

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Green rectangle - support area (broken) now resistance

Red rectangle - support area

The Dollar index has broken below the 38% Fibonacci retracement support area shown by the green rectangle. The trend is bearish as the price is making lower lows and lower highs while below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Resistance is at 93.40-93.60. Support is at 93-92.50.

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On a daily basis, the Dollar index is touching the Daily Kumo (cloud) support. Price is expected to bounce from current levels. Daily resistance is at 94.10. Support is at 92.70. I expect the Dollar index to start a new upward move from around these levels that will challenge November highs.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 24, 2017

Gold price remains inside the sideways channel just below important resistance levels. I continue to expect Gold to move lower towards $1,250 before resuming the longer-term upward move.

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Blue lines - trading range

The Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. This is a bullish sign. Support is at $1,285 and next at $1,277. Resistance is at $1,294 and next at $1,300. Gold is making an overlapping upward move since late October lows. This is not impulsive price action.

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On a daily basis, the Gold price is testing the lower Kumo (cloud) boundary resistance. A rejection here will push price towards $1,280-78 daily support. A daily close below this support will open the way for a move towards $1,250. Breaking above $1,294 will open the way for a move towards $1,300.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 11/24/2017

Trading plan 11/24/2017

Big picture: The market is ready for a new wave of growth against the dollar.

Positive news on Germany: Merkel received support from the main opposition party, SPD. After talks with the German president, the SPD leader said he was ready to support the government of Merkel - the only question is the format of support. Thus, the political crisis seems to be moving towards resolution.

The euro responded with growth.

The yen and the pound look ready to support the euro against the dollar.

In the US, there is low trading activity. It is Thanksgiving Day on Thursday and everyone is busy shopping at sales.

Important news - only this week.

Euro - buy for a breakthrough upward to 1.1865, target of 1.1980.

GBPUSD: Buy for the breakthrough of 1.3335.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Breaking forecast 11.24.2017

Breaking forecast 11.24.2017

The euro is ready for a breakthrough upward - buy on breakdown of 1.1865

The focus is again on the political situation surrounding Merkel's government in Germany. On Thursday, the leader of Germany's main opposition party, the Social Democrats (SPD) Martin Schulz, said he was ready to support the government of Merkel - either on "limited support" or in the format of a new coalition. Thus, the political crisis in Germany is moving towards a resolution - as of the morning of Friday.

The euro is ready to respond with an increase- ahead of the question of the significant level of 1.1860.

Buy euros at the break of 1.1865, stop-loss at 1.1820 - target of 1.1980.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP for November 24, 2017

EUR/GBP is currently residing within a corrective range between 0.8750 to 0.9030 which is expected to show bullish momentum in the coming days. EUR has been quite positive with the economic reports recently but due to German issues, the gains were not quite impulsive against GBP whereas GBP is also being challenged by the Brexit and political issues. Recently GBP economic reports were quite mixed whereas EUR had better than expected results which lead the currency to gain well. Today EUR German Ifo Business Climate Report is going to be published which is expected to have slight decrease to 116.6 from the previous figure of 116.7. If the economic report gets published with better than expected result then further bullish momentum is expected to push the price higher in the coming days. On the GBP side, today High Street Lending report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 40.9k from the previous figure of 41.6k. As of the current scenario, EUR is expected to gain further against GBP which is more probable as of the UK is suffering from the issues which are expected to sustain further.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA by proceeding with lower highs along the way which does signal the upcoming bullish move is quite imminent. Though the price is still residing within the corrective range, within the range, a bullish move is expected to proceed with target towards 0.9030 range resistance area. As the price remains above the recent higher low which is at 0.8850 area the bullish bias is expected to continue in the range.

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USD/JPY right on major support, remain bullish

The price has started to bounce off our entry level perfectly. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 111.11 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, Elliott wave structure) for a corrective bounce up to at least 112.53 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

RSI (34) sees major support at 34% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD testing selling area, remain bearish

The price continues to test our selling area. We look to remain bearish below major resistance at 0.6885 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish price action) and we expect to see a corrective drop from here to at least 0.6823 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 89% where we expect a corresponding drop from.

Sell below 0.6885. Stop loss is at 0.6922. Take profit is at 0.6823.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 24, 2017

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Wave summary:

The ongoing minor correction from 1.7136 is expected to peak between 1.7237 - 1.7265 for continuation of the correction in wave ii towards 1.6619. In the short term a break below minor support at 1.7184 will indicate that EUR/NZD is ready to challenge important support at 1.7100 and a break below here will confirm the expected corrective decline to 1.6619.

R3: 1.7408

R2: 1.7334

R1: 1.7265

Pivot: 1.7100

S: 1.7058

S2: 1.6916

S3: 1.6805

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7200 with our stop placed at 1.7415

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 24 - 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY continues to hover just above the short-term important support at 131.14. We need a break below this level to get things going towards the downside and confirm that wave (D) was completed with the test of 134.50 and wave (E) lower towards the ideal downside target near 123.43 is developing.

In the short term we could see another minor pop to 132.47 or just above, but it should just be a matter of time before the important support at 131.14 is challenged again.

R3: 133.13

R2: 132.75

R1: 132.47

Pivot: 131.80

S1: 131.14

S2: 130.81

S3: 130.39

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 133.10 with our stop placed at break-even.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 24, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1898.

Strong Resistance:1.1891.

Original Resistance: 1.1880.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1869.

Target Inner Area: 1.1841.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1813.

Original Support: 1.1802.

Strong Support: 1.1791.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1784.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 24, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.87.

Resistance. 2: 111.65.

Resistance. 1: 111.43.

Support. 1: 111.75.

Support. 2: 110.95.

Support. 3: 110.73.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for November 24, 2017

USDX continues to extend the decline following the release of FOMC minutes during Wednesday's session. The index is testing fresh lows and looks forward to reaching the support level of 92.84, once it manages to break below the 93.12 level. If we see a rebound at the current stage, then it might continue to reach the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.60 / 93.98

H1 chart's support levels: 93.12 / 92.84

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.12, take profit is at 92.84 and stop loss is at 93.41.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 24, 2017

GBP/USD is looking to develop a higher high pattern above the 1.3300 psychological level, which should help to boost buyers in the short-term. To the upside, the next target is located at the 1.3360 level, while a pullback should take the pair to test the 200 SMA, at which could make a rebound. However, if it gives up, then it might plummet to test the 1.3143 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3360

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3143 / 1.3037

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3309, take profit is at 1.3360 and stop loss is at 1.3256.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily Video Technical Analysis | 23rd November 2017

Today we're seeing major resistance on EURUSD and we highlight the various methods which we use in this bearish idea. It combines Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal resistance and oscillators.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets enjoy the weakness of the dollar

Eurozone

Strong growth in business activity in the euro zone confirms the correctness of the policy chosen by the ECB. According to IHS Markit, composite PMI in November was 57.5 points, which significantly exceeded forecasts, with the index at a high of 6.5 years, which makes it possible to expect GDP growth in the 4th quarter which is above forecasts.

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At the same time, activity in the manufacturing sector was 60 points, a record reading for more than 18 years. Given this, it can be said that the production sector of the euro zone feels more than confident and much better than in the pre-crisis period.

The euro reacted to the output growth data, and this is not surprising, since it puts the ECB in a difficult situation, because to explain the need to roll back the asset repurchase program is increasingly difficult, and the growth of rates is restrained only by weak inflation. The last meeting of the ECB for the year on December 14 may bring a surprise, and bulls on the euro, no doubt, will try to take advantage of the prevailing market conditions.

On Friday, the indices of business activity in Germany from IFO will be published, and taking into account that the Markit indices noticeably exceeded forecasts, it will not come as a surprise and IFO's release is better than expected. Euro will end the week on a positive note, the probability of consolidating above 1.1880 has increased significantly and the current corrective growth can develop up to 1.20.

United Kingdom

The pound finally got a chance to stop the unnecessary strengthening, caused not so much by positive expectations in the UK economy but by the temporary weakness of the dollar.

The second preliminary estimate of UK growth in the third quarter came out unchanged, as the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%, but the dynamics of business investment is alarming. Despite the fact that the total amount of investments increased to 82.375 billion pounds, the growth in the third quarter was only 0.2%, and this is the worst result for 7 months.

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The slowing of the inflow of investments is a direct consequence of the problems in the Brexit negotiation process. The EU countries, and first of all Germany, are interested in Britain paying its demarche at the highest rate, and the plans of the cabinet of Theresa May include creating more attractive conditions for capital than on the mainland. Judging by the dynamics of investment, while the preponderance of the EU, which can force Britain to improve its proposal, which the British negotiators do not want to do before the status of future trade relations will be clarified.

The effect of the rate hike by the Bank of England comes to naught, the market does not expect another increase in the foreseeable future, and therefore the probability of slowing the rise of the pound or even a downward turn looks natural.

Oil

Oil continues to hold close to two-year highs, but the risks of a deep correction is growing noticeably. Next week there will be a long-awaited meeting of OPEC +, dedicated to the extension of the agreement on limiting production. The market fears that Russia may succumb to the pressure of some of the oil companies that are dissatisfied with the restriction of production, and will insist on a softer version of the agreement, which is to extend the restrictions not by nine but by six or even three months.

In our view, such fears are unlikely to be realized, and the oil may update the highs next week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com