Trading Plan for EUR/USD and USD/JPY for March 08, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD hourly chart suggests that an intermediate bottom is formed around 1.0525 level just an hour ago during New York open. This move was bit anticipated and more fire works are expected tomorrow and day after. The wave structure still suggests that the pair is into its flat A-B-C, not shown here. To be precise, wave C is underway with waves 1 and 2 almost ready as labelled here. If the above wave count comes true, the pair should push higher from here producing wave 3, 4 and 5 at a lower degree to push through 1.0700 levels and reverse from there on. Please note that structurally EUR/USD is in a downtrend but might be producing a counter-trend rally which could be in its last leg. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0600 while support is at 1.0494 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders please remain long, with a stop at 1.0490 levels targeting 1.0650 and 1.0700 at least.

Conservative traders please remain flat for now and look to sell rallies through 1.0700 levels. The above plan is true for the next few days to 2 weeks time.

USD/JPY chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The USD/JPY pair has pushed slightly above our expectations today and has tested 114.75 as seen on the hourly chart above. A good thing is that is hasn't breached the same and hence it could still remain into guild lines of a potential wave 2 as labelled here. The wave structure still reveals that a reversal is in the action that could push prices towards 112.00 levels at least or a corrective drop A-B-C is in the action which should produce a correction towards 112.80 levels respectively. In either case, a top is very near and short positions are still favored against 115.00. Please note that the current structure could also fall under the presumption of a double top or it could produce an expanded flat. All probabilities are pointing towards a push lower from current levels either into 5 waves or as an A-B-C corrective drop.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now with stop at 115.00 levels, targeting 112.00 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Although the USD is strong across the board, a temporary corrective drop is in the making, which could last a couple of days or up to 2 weeks. Today's events are mostly out but watch out for tomorrow's ECB monetary policy decision. Check market updates tomorrow for more details.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 8, 2017

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Wave summary:

Wave [iii] is now trading just below the ideal target seen at 1.5286. Once this wave [iii] target has been tested, then look for a correction in wave [iv] towards 1.5000 before the next impulsive rally higher should be expected in wave [v].

Short term, a break below support at 1.5112 will confirm that wave [iv] is unfolding.

R3: 1.5516

R2: 1.5375

R1: 1.5286

Pivot: 1.5230

S1: 1.5180

S2: 1.5112

S3: 1.5055

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.4840 and will move our stop higher to 1.5100 and place take profit at 1.5275. If you are not long EUR, then wait to buy the expected correction to near 1.5000.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 8, 2017

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Wave summary:

We have seen the expected corrective decline towards 119.86 to complete wave ii. Wave iii higher towards at least 124.20 is now expected. The ideal target for wave 3 remains near 125.53, from where a correction in wave 4 should be expected.Short term, a clear break above minor resistance seen at 121.19 will confirm wave iii higher towards 124.20.

R3: 122.90

R2: 121.78

R1: 121.19

Pivot: 121.00

S1: 120.73

S2: 120.35

S3: 119.97

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.86 with stop placed at 118.60. Upon a break above 121.19, we will move our stop higher to 119.95. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 121.19 and use the same stop.

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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 8, 2017

EUR/JPY is currently in a state of clear bearish rejection after a massive sell off below 120.00. EUR is gaining strength against the JPY today after the final Japan's GDP came in at 0.3%, slightly missing the forecast of a 0.4% growth. Besides, Japan's current account showed deficit of 1.26 trln yen, which was expected to be at 1.46 trln yen. On the other hand, German industrial production saw a robust increase of 2.8% in January from a 3.0% fall in December. French Trade Balance was quite negative at -7.9 bln EUR, much worse than the forecast of -3.7 bln EUR. Despite mixed economics reports from the eurozone, EUR is gaining momentum against JPY. If the market shows a daily close with bullish intervention in this pair, the price is likely to climb higher in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently rejecting the bears and is hovering above the support at 120.30. If we see the daily close above the support level 120.30, the price is expected to move towards the next resistance at 121.20 soon. Otherwise, if the price closes with a bearish pressure below 120.00 area, the bullish bias will change to bearish and we will target 119.40 on the downside.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 08, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 113.55. Although the pair retreated from 114.15 (Mar 7 top), a support base at 113.55 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 113.55 is not broken, expect a rebound to 114.35. A break above this level would call for a new rise to 114.60.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.35 and the second one at 114.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.30, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 113.00. The pivot point is at 113.55.

Resistance levels: 114.35, 114.60, and 115.00

Support levels: 113.30, 112.75, and 112.25

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 08, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range as the bias remains bullish. Although the pair retreated from 1.0170 (Mar 7 top), it is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. In addition, the downside potential should be limited by the key support level at 1.0105 (Mar 7 low).

As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside to 1.0150 and 1.0170 in extension.

To conclude, as long as 1.0135 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 1.0060 and 1.0040 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0150, 1.0165, and 1.0185

Support levels: 1.0085, 1.0070, and 1.0040

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 08, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair is trading within the bearish channel, which confirms a negative outlook. The declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

Therefore, as long as 0.6915 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 0.6915 and even to 0.6890 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6915. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6880. The pivot point stands at 0.6990. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7070 and the second one at 0.7095.

Resistance levels: 0.7015, 0.7045, and 0.7070

Support levels: 0.6915, 0.6890, and 0.6845

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 08, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is set at 139.25. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance level at 139.25, which should limit the upside potential. The descending 50-period moving average suggests that the price still has potential for a further downside. The relative strength index is shifted to bearish.

As long as 139.25 holds on the upside, a further drop to 138.15 and even to 137.80 seems more likely to occur.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 138.15. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 137.80. The pivot point stands at 139.25. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 139.65 and the second one at 140.00.

Resistance levels: 139.65, 140.00, and 140.80

Support levels: 138.15,137.80, and 137.00

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Gold analysis for March 08, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,211.43. According to the 4H time frame, I found strong downward presure, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find a potential downward target. I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% (extreme) at the price of $1,207.15. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities on the retracements with the target at $1,207.15.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,222.50

R2: $1,225.30

R3: $1,229.75

Support levels:

S1: $1,213.60

S2: $1,210.85

S3: $1,206.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for selling opportunities on the retracements.

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USD/JPY analysis for March 08, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 114.10. According to the 1H time frame, I found another successful rejection of the Fibonacci confluence at the price of 113.60, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. Targets are set at the price of 114.70 (swing high) and the price of 115.45 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%).

Resistance levels:

R1: 114.12

R2: 114.25

R3: 114.40

Support levels:

S1: 113.75

S2: 113.65

S3: 113.50

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 08, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is calling for a bullish market from the support levels of 1.0041 and 1.0097.
  • Currently, the price is in a bullish channel on the 4H chart. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0041 which coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci.
  • Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0041. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0041.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.0041) with the first target at the level of 1.0153.
  • Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.0153, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0233) to test it.
  • It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9972.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 08, 2017

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Overview:

  • The first resistance level is seen at 0.7000 followed by 0.7072, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6942.
  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6942.
  • The pair fell from the level of 0.7072 to the bottom around 0.6970. Besides, the level of 0.7072 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance this week.
  • Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.7072 towards the first support level at 0.7000 in order to test it again.
  • If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.7000, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.7000.
  • Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.7000, the market will decline further to 0.6942 and 0.6884 in order to test the daily support 2.
  • However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set above the second resistance of 0.7072.
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Global macro overview for 08/03/2017

Global macro overview for 08/03/2017:

The UK Halifax Feb house price index surprised market participants by printing worse than expected figures. Market participants expected an increase to 0.4% from -1.1% last month, but the house price index edged up just 0.1%. Moreover, a three-month average was revised down to 5.1% from 5.7%, while investors expected a decrease only to the level of 5.3%. This data will add a little to the overall bearish sentiment on GBP pairs across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the yesterday's support at the level of 1.2213 and it looks like it is heading towards the next support at the level of 1.2140 (78%Fibo). This scenario is valid as long as the price is trading inside of the dashed navy channel and the key resistance for bulls is at the level of 1.2303.

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Technical analysis of USDX for March 8, 2017

The US dollar index is moving higher but still below the important resistance of 102.30. The trend remains sideways as the price is trapped inside the trading range of 102.20-100.50. However, bulls still have more chances of success as in longer-term charts the price continues to make higher highs and higher lows.

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Purple line - short-term support

The US Dollar index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud. The price is also above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen (red and yellow line indicators). The short-term support is at 101.70. Resistance is at 102.30.

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Black line - neckline support

Green line - long-term trend-line support

Red line - resistance

Weekly support is held. The price is above the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator). As long as the price is above 101, the short-term trend remains bullish. As long as the price is below 102.30 and above 100, the trend is neutral. So far weekly support is held and that is why the longer-term trend remains bullish.

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Technical analysis of gold for March 8, 2017

Gold price declined to new lows yesterday and is approaching important short-term support that could produce a tradeable bounce. My longer-term view remains bullish although there are risks of a push towards $1,180 in the short term.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Gold price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud. Price is in a bearish short-term trend. Gold price is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support of the rise from $1,180 to $1,263. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Resistance is at $1,228 and support at $1,210. There are also divergence signs in the short term and that is why I expect a reversal soon.

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Black line - long-term resistance

The weekly candle is testing the lower cloud boundary and the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). Support is here. I would like to see a bounce from the current levels. My long-term view remains unchanged. I remain long-term bullish about Gold. Minimum target is at $1,300.

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Daily Video Analysis on EUR/USD - 7th March 2017

Ask me questions here : http://forum.mt5.com/showthread.php?129814-Analytical-reviews-by-Dean-Leo-discussions-and-questions-to-the-author

We take an in-depth look on EUR/USD to see if there are any trading opportunities available for us to trade off and generate potential profits from. We explain clearly how we use a range of analytical approaches from Fibonacci retracements to Fibonacci extensions, price action and oscillators to determine such trading opportunities. Join us and learn how to find good trading opportunities through technical analysis!

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