Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We have seen the expected test of minor resistance at 1.5210 (the high was seen at 1.5209). We will now look for the final decline closer to support at 1.5000 before the correction from 1.5821 finally is over and a new impulsive rally can be expected. The short-term resistance at 1.5209 will protect the upside from a break below minor support at 1.5078, thus confirming the final decline towards 1.5000. It will also set the stage for a new impulsive rally high. Only an unexpected rally past 1.5209 will indicate that a bottom could already be in place.


Trading recommendation:


We will buy the euro near 1.5000 or upon a break above 1.5210.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 19 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We are still looking for a little more upside movement in wave (iv) towards 137.65 before this correction is over. It should take wave (v) lower to 125.98 to end wave C of the expanded flat wave [2]. It's worth remembering, that after an expanded flat wave two an extended third wave should be expected. As long as support at 133.92 protect the downside, we should keep looking for wave (iv) to move a little higher, but from 137.65 or upon a break below 133.92 wave (v) lower should be expected.


Trading recommendation:


We will still look to sell the euro at 137.55 or upon a break below 133.92.


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Gold analysis for February 19, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1,221.07 in a high volume. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe rejection from our Fibonacci retracement at the price of 1,200.00. We are still waiting for larger activity on the market. I have placed Fibonacci retracement according to the low point at the price of 1,197.43 and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,240.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,265.00. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows (buy on the dips).


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,209.79


R2: 1,213.61


R3: 1,219.18


Support levels :


S1: 1,197.47


S2: 1,193.59


S3: 1,187.40


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 19, 2015

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Overview :



  • The USD/CHF pair has not shown signs of breaking the highest levels of 0.9341 and 0.9425. The support has already been set at the spot of 0.9347 for several days. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 0.9425/0.9341 (because we expect a bullish market in coming days) with the first target of 0.9481 and resume to 0.9540 in order to form a new double top this week. Moreover, the resistance is going to be placed at the price of 0.9544. Hence, we expect a range between the levels of 0.9544 and 0.9435. However, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the minor support level of 0.9430, the market will lead to further decline to 0.9402. Additionally, it will be able to indicate the correction movement at this level. But it should be noted that the channel emerging of RSI is still positive on the H1 chart. So, the RSI calls for a new uptrend at this level (0.9435). Also, we should notice a point of view that the MA(50) would be a confirmation for the uptrend but in the short-term period.



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 19, 2015

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Overview :



  • The support of the USD/CAD pair has been broken and turned to resistance at the same key level of 1.2524 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H1 chart). So, resistance has already been set at the price of 1.2524 and the double top was set at the same price too. It is equally important that the trend is going to see the bearish market and the the price is set below the resistance since the 13th of February 2015. Another thought: we expect a range of 91 pips until the end of the New York session. We expect that the price is going to move between 1.2440 and 1.2524. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of the bearish market from the spot of 1.2524. Consequently, the market indicates the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.2530 with the first target at 1.2493, then it continues towards the level of 1.2433 in the coming hours. It should be noted that the level of 1.2433 represents strong support on February 19, 2015. Moreover, the same level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels at the same time frame (H1). Consequently, the pair is going to form a strong support at the 1.2433 price. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it will be wise to set your stop loss at the price of 1.2570.



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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair rallied higher into the levels of 136.00 today before pulling back. The air is trading at the levels of 135.40/50 for now and should be poised to rally higher towards the levels of 137.50 and 138.50, respectively. It is hence recommended to remain long and to look to add during intraday dips. Immediate support is seen at 135.00 (interim) followed by 134.00, 133.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at the levels of 137.50, followed by 138.50, 142.30, respectively. Bulls seem to be in control for now and poised to push higher towards 138.00 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long. Stop is at 133.00, target is 137.50/138.00.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 19, 2015

General overview for 19/02/2015 10:35 CET


The wave development on this pair is getting more and more complex and time-consuming. The price action is full of whipsaws and false breakouts. The intraday golden channel is now the key structure to keep an eye on, because any breakout higher or lower will have a critical consequences on market behavior. Any upside breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2489 is bullish and even the black mid-term trend line might be tested. On the other hand, a downward breakout below the golden channel might result in technical support violation at the level of 1.2349 and the projected target level for wave Y brown might be hit.


Support/Resistance:


1.2783 - WR2


1.2590 - WR1


1.2506 - Weekly Pivot


1.2489 - Intraday Resistance


1.2359 - Intraday Support


1.2348 - Technical Support


1.2250 - 1.2231 - Projected Target Zone


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should wait for the market breakout in either direction and refrain from trading until a breakout happens.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair seems to be retracing for now and is trading at the levels of 1.4515. As depicted here, the Fibonacci support begins at the levels of 1.4467, while 1.4391 (fibonacci 0.618) remains the best buy opportunity. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to enter buying at lower levels. Candlestick support is seen at 1.4260/70 followed by 1.4100, 1.4000, while resistance is seen at the levels of 1.4650 levels followed by 1.4750 and higher, respectively. Please note that a break below the trend line and subsequently 1.4270 could indicate a deeper correction.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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#USDX technical analysis for February 19, 2015

The dollar index remains inside the trading range that we have seen for the last few days. The dollar index on the daily chart is also close to breaking the lower triangle pattern boundaries. This will be a sell signal with a possible pullback target of 92.80-93.


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Blue line = support


Green line = resistance


The dollar index is still trading inside the trading range that we have seen for the last few days. The trend is neutral. There is no clear direction. Support is at 93.40 and resistance at 95.30. I prefer to wait before making a trade in such market conditions.


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Black lines = triangle


The Dollar index is testing the triangle boundaries on the daily chart as shown above. The trend remains neutral. There is no clear direction in the short term. I prefer to stay neutral and buy the index if we break above 95 because the longer-term trend is bullish and my longer-term target is 100.


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Gold technical analysis for February 19, 2015

Gold price has reached my target of $1,200 and marginally broke below that level but has found support, as expected, and is now turning higher. The medium-term trend remains bearish, but there is a good chance gold price makes a considerable upward move from the current levels.


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Blue line = support


Black line = resistance


Gold price is trying to bounce towards the Ichimoku cloud resistance. The price is above the kijun-sen and the tenkan-sen. This means that there is a short-term bullish momentum that could push the price towards the cloud resistance. The trend is bearish since the price is below the cloud.


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As shown on the daily chart above, gold price has found support right at the top of the Ichimoku cloud support. This support level is very important. If we break below this support level, we should expect gold price to move towards $1,150. Resistance is at $1,225 where the tenkan-sen(red line) is found. If we close above $1,225, we should expect a move higher towards $1,255 where the kijun-sen (yellow line) is found.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 19, 2015

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Overview:


The USD/CAD pair has been trending upwards within the bullish channel depicted on the WEEKLY chart.


The market looked overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels as well as the 79.6%Fibonacci level. That is why a bearish correction that started off 1.2750 was anticipated in the previous articles.


The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level).


Note that the USD/CAD bulls have been defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300 (broken 79.6% Fibonacci Level).


The market has not retested the newly-established DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000.


DAILY closure below the price level of 1.2300 exposes the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 where the backside of the upper limit of the breached channel is located.


On the other hand, the bullish persistence above 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2760-1.2780 without further retesting of 1.2000.


Trading recommendations:


Wait for DAILY closure below 1.2300 for SHORTING the USD/CAD pair. TP levels should be set at 1.2250 and 1.2190. Stop Loss should be set as DAILY closure again above the ENTRY levels (1.2300).


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 19, 2015

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Overview:


The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with the projection target at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel has provided support for the pair few weeks ago.


Recently, the H4 chart showed a transition phase into a sideway movement that has been maintained within the depicted price range.


On February 5 initial bullish breakout above 1.5220 took place. Shortly after, a new DAILY support was established around 1.5170-1.5200 (an ascending bottom, a sign of ongoing bullish momentum).


Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted H4 channel. Persistence of the pair above the recent DAILY support (the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200) applied extensive bullish pressure over the price level of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level on the H4 chart) which did not provide enough RESISTANCE.


The long-term projection target for the recent bullish breakout above 1.5220 is located around 1.5500-1.5550 where the previous DAILY bottoms are located (DAILY RESISTANCE).


Trading recommendations:


As long as bulls keep defending the recent SUPPORT around 1.5350, they should keep targeting at 1.5460 and 1.5580.


For traders who missed the initial breakout, a valid buy entry can be taken at retesting of 1.5260 with SL located below the recent bottom around 1.5200.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 19, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the FULL bearish MONTHLY below 1.2000 (January's monthly candlestick).


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The breakout below 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT) allowed quick bearish decline towards 1.1100 to take place few days later.


Conservative traders were suggested to wait for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the EUR/USD pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700).


However, note that a bearish Flag pattern is being established on the daily chart. A low-risk SELL entry can be taken around 1.1570-1.1590 where a prominent DAILY SUPPLY is roughly located.


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The price zone of 1.1470-1.1490 is a recently established SUPPLY zone on the H4 chart (the upper limit of a newly-established consolidation zone ).


Short-term SELL positions can be taken there. Stop loss should be placed slightly above the price level of 1.1530 (the recent high).


Moreover, risky traders can wait for DAILY closure below 1.1260 (recent DEMAND level, lower limit of the H4 consolidation zone). This probably indicates a bearish visit towards the WEEKLY low around 1.1110.


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Technical analysis of Silver for February 19, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has bounced off as expected ahead of $16.00/20 levels yesterday. The metal is seen to be trading comfortably above $16.50, and looks to be poised to push through extensions at $19.90 and $20.80 respectively in the sessions to come. As depicted here, the metal has bounced off the trend line support and also fibonacci support (convergence) around the $16.30/50 region. Immediate support is seen at $16.20, followed by $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 (interim), followed by $18.50, $18.90 and higher respectively. It is strongly recommended to retail long positions.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $15.50, a target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for February 19, 2015.


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has bounced off from $1,197.00/98.00 levels as expected. The metal has taken support of a confluence of convergences as depicted here. To start with, the metal has taken support of the rising trend line passing through at $1,197.00 levels. Furthermore, the fibonacci convergences 0.618 and 0.786 of the previous rallies from $1,130.00 and $1,170.00 levels are seen to be meeting at $1,197.85 levels, as shown here. Looking into the above facts and a sharp bounce of the metal as follow through, it is highly recommended to remain long and add further at current levels at $1,214.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,170.00, followed by $1,130.00 while resistance is seen at $1,240.00/45.00 (interim), followed by $1,340.00 and higher respectively. Bulls seem to have taken back control now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, targets are $1,375.00 and $1,412.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on Gold for February 19, 2015

The yellow metal prices bounced from a 6-week low after the Federal Reserve's dovish statement. They are not in a hurry to raise the benchmark interest rate. In addition, the economic data in US was also disappointing. China is heading into a holiday period ahead of the Lunar New year. Before this holiday period, physical buying is moderate. In India, RBI lifted a ban on gold imports. Nominated banks get permission to import gold on a consignment basis. However, the 20:80 (EXPORT:IMPORT) scheme on gold has to be applied. Today at the Asian early session, the metal is gaining some ground ahead of unemployment claims. The nearest resistance exists at 1217.00. On a weekly closing basis, bulls must close above 1217.00. The intraday support exists at 1209.00. On the h4-chart, the prices are closed and trading above hourly moving averages. The prices are expanding lower swings on the hourly charts. Intraweek resistance exists at $1,227.00. Intraday resistance is placed at $1,222.50.


Resistance: $1,217.00, $1222.50, $1,227.00.


Support: $1,197.00, $1190.00, $1,185.00.


Selling below $1,1209.00.


Buying above $1,217.00.


TREND DECIDER LEVEL BETWEEN $1,191.00 AND $1,190.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 19, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Consumer Confidence, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Current Account, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, and French CPI m/m. The US will release a number of economic reports such as the Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1458.


Strong Resistance:1.1451.


Original Resistance: 1.1440.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1429.


Target Inner Area: 1.1402.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1375.


Original Support: 1.1364.


Strong Support: 1.1353.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1346.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 19, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Monthly Report, All Industries Activity m/m, and Trade Balance. The US will also publish a number of economic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 119.16.


Resistance. 2: 118.93.


Resistance. 1: 118.70.


Support. 1: 118.41.


Support. 2: 118.18.


Support. 3: 117.94.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Daily analysis of USDX for February 19, 2015

This session is bearish for the US dollar, as the FOMC had some dovish words regarding the economy in the United States. On the daily chart, we're currently watching a breakout at the support level of 93.02, which can push the USDX to reach the 93.02 level in the medium term. Don't forget that we're still bullish on this instrument.


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At the session on Wednesday, the USDX failed to get consolidated above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. Currently, this instrument is trying to fall to the support level of 93.62, but it will happen only when the USDX does a bearish consolidation below the 94.02 level in the coming hours. The MACD indicator is still on the negative territory.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.18 / 95.45


Dailychart's support levels: 93.02 / 92.40


H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.16 / 95.57


H1 chart's support levels: 94.87 / 94.38




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.02, take profit is at 93.62, and stop loss is at 94.42.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 19, 2015

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair had a strong bullish momentum that allowed this pair to touch the resistance level of 1.5491. This is the closest hurdle for the bullish bias of the GBP/USD pair, because in this time frame the pair is still below the 200 SMA which is also bearish. So, for now, we recommend waiting for a bullish pattern formation.


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From the intraday outlook, we can see a higher high pattern developing above the support level of 1.5413, and the GBP/USD pair could perform a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5457, with a bullish target placed at the 1.5508 level. On the other side, there are still chances that the pair does a pullback to the support level of 1.5413.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5491 / 1.5761


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5247 / 1.5025


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5457 / 1.5508


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5413 / 1.5378




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5457, take profit is at 1.5508, and stop loss is at 1.5405.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 19, 2015

EUR/USD: Unlike some popular majors, this pair has not been going in a determined manner, and it would be wise to stay away from the market until a good momentum returns to it. The price could either break the resistance line at 1.1450 to the upside or break the support line at 1.1300 to the downside.


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USD/CHF: On the USD/CHF pair, a lower time frame like the hourly chart has been switched to. This is because recent price movements can be seen more clearly on the hourly chart than when looking at the 4-hour chart. The trend for this week has been upwards so far. The price is currently going above the support level at 0.9400. The next target is at the resistance level of 0.9500. By all means, this is not a market which the speculator should sell.


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GBP/USD: The northward journey on the Cable has continued in a simple manner – lower highs and higher highs. The desired approach has been to buy on dips. The distribution territory at 1.5450 has been challenged and would be challenged again, for it could be breached to the upside. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the market.


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USD/JPY: The perpetual machinations from bears have been a great impediment to the bullish bias on the USD/JPY pair. A break below the demand level at 118.00 would make the recent bullish bias to be completely invalid.


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EUR/JPY: The conditions surrounding this market have made it a difficult instrument to trade. The price topped at the supply zone of 136.00, after which there was a slight bearish retracement. There is a possibility that the price may go upward from here.


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Daily analysis of Silver for February 18, 2015

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Overview


On today's H4 chart, the metal is still trading between the support level of 16.30 and the resistance level of 16.50 after it has failed to break the resistance level yesterday and bounced from it to take a slightly downward move. Currently, it is approaching the resistance level of 16.50 again. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above this resistance level in case of bouncing from the support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 16.75, then after breaking this resistance level silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 17.00, which means more bullish signals.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (17.00), R2 (16.75), R1 (16.50), S1 (16.30), S2 (16.00), S3 (15.75).




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