Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 13, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Currently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) is now considered a prominent Supply zone to be watched for bearish rejection and possible SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.1900.

That's why the bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) is currently needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1400 (the previously mentioned monthly key-level).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 13, 2018

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why the bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, when bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

The current bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) remains a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Review of AUD / USD pair for the week of June 13 via simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The bearish wave of the major "Aussie" since January 26 in a higher timeframe takes the place of the final part (C). A contemptible calculation allows you to wait for about 3 figures to the target zone.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

Since May 9, quotations of the pair form a bullish wave. For the main trend, it forms a correction.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The bearer section of June 6 corrects the first part of the zigzag wave (part AB).

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Recommended trading strategy:

Next week, conditions for short-term purchases will appear only for inside day transactions. n the resistance zone, traders of larger timeframes are recommended to track sales signals.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7710 / 0.7760

Support zones:

- 0.7560 / 0.7510

- 0.7320 / 0.7270

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD currency pair on June 13, 2018

The GBP/USD currency pair felt resistance, signaling traders about the end of the corrective movement after converging with the 1.3440 / 1.3480 range. What do we have on the market? The end of the correction, which reached a range level, compared itself with two values: 1.3440 - the level of medium importance and Fibo 23.6 - amplifying the resistance signal.

Further development

Volatility and the "bearish" interest are growing. The recently published economic data for the UK were worse than expected, which further supported the downward sentiment. At the same time, expectations of traders with the Fed, where almost 100% raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.00%, will definitely support the dollar.

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What can we expect

The level of 1.3200 will most likely be the first thing that the price will face. It will serve as a passing support, where in case of fixation below, we will quickly reach a local minimum of 1.3200 and earlier at this level, the quotation went to the correction stage.

Technical picture:

All indicators confirm a bearish attitude. Market volatility is also high, which may lead to a further impulse.

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The fate of the euro will be decided in Latvia

Tomorrow in Latvia, the fate of the European currency will be decided. The June meeting of the ECB, which this time will take place in Riga, will be a key event for the euro, as the regulator can actually start the normalization of monetary policy.

However, among experts, disputes still remain about the possible actions of the ECB. Most of them are inclined to the fact that the regulator will nevertheless decide to turn off the QE, and tomorrow Mario Draghi will announce that such a step will be taken this fall. The arguments of this position are obvious. First, the unemployment rate in the euro area dropped to a 10-year low (8.5%). Leaders among the EU countries in this indicator are Germany and the Czech Republic but Greece has traditionally become an outsider. Secondly, the inflation index (1.9%) recovered, surprising the market with a record growth rate. Retail sales in the euro area are weak, but still growing, again demonstrating the positive dynamics. According to some experts, the GDP indicator will also show growth in the second quarter after a decline to 0.4%.

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The political situation in Europe also contributes to the tightening of the ECB's rhetoric. Political crises in Italy and Spain have come to naught, and the threat of new "exits" has passed. This factor will not be considered by the regulator among risk factors.

In general, the market is set for a "hawkish" meeting of the ECB. The reason for such thoughts was the unexpected statement of the chief economist of the Central Bank, Peter Praet, who previously, as a rule, held a "dovish" position, defending the expediency of ultra-soft monetary policy. Last week, he surprised traders by announcing a discussion on the curtailment of the program of buying up debt obligations, "which is scheduled for the end of this year." After these words, the euro halted the fall, and the yield of treasury securities of the eurozone grew significantly.

However, not all share the optimism of traders about tomorrow's meeting. A number of currency strategists warn that the European Central Bank may not meet expectations, after which the euro will collapse into several figures. In their opinion, Mario Draghi will not rush and postpone consideration of the QE issue until July. In his usual manner, he can declare that he is satisfied with the current trajectory of inflation, but for a final decision, additional time is needed, during which the Central Bank will make sure of the stability of the dynamics.

In addition, Draghi can focus on the aggravated problem of the trade war between the US and China, as well as between the US and the EU. It should be recalled that Trump did not extend the grace period and activated the new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from the EU. Merkel promised to develop new "countermeasures," while Washington could introduce new duties on foreign cars, thereby exacerbating the trade conflict.

Here, it is worth recalling that Mario Draghi has repeatedly discussed about the risks of trade disputes. Speaking at the end of April, he said that "the main downside risks to the economic forecast are related to external, international factors." And although the head of the ECB did not voice the name of the US president, he hinted at it transparently enough, pointing to "distinctly expressed risks of protectionism."

At the moment, the situation in this regard has only worsened - the outcome of the G7 summit eloquently confirmed the existing disagreements. And now, when Trump reinforced his political success with his meeting with Kim Jong-Un, he can take very radical steps in the sphere of foreign trade. The European Central Bank is well aware of the prospects for the development of such a policy, so they can take a timeout on the issue of QE - at least until July 27, when the next meeting of the ECB will occur.

Thus, the June meeting of the European Central Bank is intriguing. Each scenario has its own weighty arguments - the only question is which side the regulator members will take.

In our opinion, the Central Bank will take a "Solomon decision": on one hand, it will change the QE program, reducing the amount of purchases to 10 billion a month, but on the other hand, it will extend its validity by the end of this year. As an "additional option" Draghi can voice a hawkish rhetoric, expressing optimism about the growth of the European economy. By implementing such a scenario, the head of the ECB will retain the "place possible for maneuver," without giving up de facto from the completion of QE within this year.

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The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair is also showing uncertainty. On the daily chart, there are no clear signals indicating the priority of growth or decline. This suggests that traders took a cautious stance. It is still necessary to take into account the fact that within one day, we will learn the results of key meetings of the Fed and the ECB (such coincidences are rare), so the technical picture of the EUR/USD tomorrow may radically change. Given such a fundamental background, now it is advisable to take a wait-and-see attitude - the risks of unexpected remarks both from the American regulator and the ECB are too great.

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Daily review of GBP / USD pair as of June 13, 188. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / USD pair

Players on the fall try to complete the upward correction and return to the continuation of the trend, but the force of attraction of the daily cross levels (Kijun 1.3410 + Tenkan 1.3361) does not yet allow the implementation of these plans. Recovery of the downtrend is possible after updating the minimum extremum (1,3203), which is strengthened by the support of the weekly Senkou Span A (1.3208). Staying long in the correction zone will facilitate the change of the day cross and the return of activity of players to rise. The main task in this case will be a breakdown of resistances of 1.3459 - 1.3502 and a continuation of the rise to the levels of the weekly cross and the daytime cloud. At the moment, the initiative and support for the Ichimoku indicator at the lower time intervals belong to the players to fall. The situation can begin to change consistently when lifting and fastening over 1.3363 - 1.

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Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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Daily review of EUR/ USD pair as of 06/13/18. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / USD pair

As expected, the players on the rise took a break, having worked out the upward target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.1829) and achieved the final level resistance of the daytime dead cross (Fibo Kijun 1.1810). The key support zone, which combines the boundaries of the monthly and weekly clouds, is in the current situation in the region of 1.1708 - 1.1670. Current support levels are now on the daytime cross and H4 clouds (1.1740-50). The location above the support levels keeps the relevance of the fact the upward correction will continue. The closest reference points, in this case, are the weekly cross and the day cloud (1.1910 - 1.1963 - 1.2032). Reliable fastening under support (1.1708 - 1.1670) can help restore trend movements on the daily and weekly halves (the minimum extremum is 1.1510).

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Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump and the "Group of Seven"

Trump and the "Group of Seven"

The meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un drew attention from the scandalous failure of the G-7 summit, but not for long.

The focus again is on the new tariffs by Trump and the prospect of trade wars.

Trump threatens Canada: the harsh words to Trump's address of Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau "will cost Canada a lot of money."

In response to the new tariffs on steel and aluminum introduced by Trump, Canada will introduce a response fee on July 1 for a number of goods from the United States such as toilet paper, whiskey, orange juice.

Officials in Canada estimated that Trump's new tariffs would increase unemployment in Canada by 6,000, reduce Canada's GDP by 6 billion US dollars, and Canada is stronger than other countries suffering from Trump's tariffs.

For imports or exports of goods, Canada has a surplus of approximately $ 20 billion with a total trade volume of $ 300 billion. However, taking into account export/import of services, the balance is minimal.

Trump also said that, it is unclear from the calculations and Canada's excess in trade with the US worth "in 100 billion dollars."

Germany's Prime Minister Merkel said that, given the export / import of services, the United States has a positive trade balance with Europe.

This obviously implies that Germany and the EU as a whole will take a tough stance on Trump's new duties.

This only the beginning.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Increase in Fed forecasts will support the dollar

Yesterday, the pound moved pretty much from side to side but in the end, it remained virtually unchanged. As usual, the answer lies in the statistics, which was quite curious. At first glance, everything indicates that the pound was supposed to fall, without stopping. The growth rate of the average wage in the UK has unpleasantly slowed down. The growth rates of average wages without premiums have slowed from 2.9% to 2.8%, and taking into account premiums, it decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. So not only do salaries with premiums grew more slowly than without bonuses their growth rates have also slowed down. So the reasons for the joy were not these in particular. The last nail in the coffin of the pound was supposed to be inflation in the US, as it unexpectedly accelerated faster than forecasts. It was expected that inflation would accelerate from 2.5% to 2.7%, but it gave a pleasant surprise, accelerating to 2.8%. However, after the feverish jumps back and forth, market participants drew attention to data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK, as it decreased by 7.7 thousand, while waiting for an increase of 11.3 thousand. In other words, the situation on the market Labor in the UK is improving, at least in terms of employment, and in such a situation, it is quite logical that the growth rate of wages will slow down. So there is no reason for panic.

The rapid growth of inflation in the US removes all doubts about today's outcome of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations. Now, probably, it's just impossible to find doubters that the Fed will raise the refinancing rate from 1.75% to 2.00% today. Moreover, a few hours before the announcement of the regulator's decision, data on producer prices will be published, whose growth rates should accelerate from 2.6% to 2.8%. Given that producer prices are ahead of inflation, their growth suggests that the Fed will continue to raise the refinancing rate. However, the intrigue is that today, there are inflation data in the UK, and it can show its growth from 2.4% to 2.5%, which on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England makes us think about the possibility of raising the refinancing rate in the UK. The fact is that the increase in the refinancing rate of the Fed has long been taken into account by the market, and today's decision of the regulator will not lead to a serious increase in the dollar. However, the very possibility of raising the refinancing rate by the Bank of England can be a great inspiration to investors. Moreover, only those in the market are engaged in what they are looking for as an excuse for correction in the dollar, and raising the refinancing rate in the UK is an excellent reason for this very correction.

Of course, there is also a very fantastic scenario of the fact that the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations will leave the refinancing rate unchanged. If this happens, then the two-month growth of the dollar was unreasonable, so disappointed investors will start selling dollars in bulk. However, the probability of this development is almost zero.

It is most likely that even before the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations, the pound will drop to 1.3300. If the Fed disappoints market participants, then coupled with rising inflation in the UK and an increase in optimistic expectations about a possible decision by the Bank of England, the pound will skyrocket to 1.3550.analytics5b20c593edbf2.png

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 13, 2018

On Wednesday at 18.00 London time, the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be announced. The Fed's Open Market Operations Committee intends to take a decision to tighten its monetary policy. According to the analysts' expectations, the regulator will raise the base rate by 0.25% to the level of 1.75 - 2%.

At the moment, the probability of such an outcome exceeds 80%, and the decision of the American Central Bank is already laid in the market expectations. However, an increase in the Fed rate should not lead to a sharp reaction of the dollar.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the market moved in the side channel ahead of interest rates in the USA to be released on Wednesday at 18.00 London time. On Wednesday, in anticipation of news, the market will work in the side channel and preferably work on small timeframes (up to 60 minutes).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion.

On Wednesday, before the release of the news at 18.00 London time, the market will move up in the side channel.

Amid the increase in rates, the lower target is 1.1709 with the retracement level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

If the stakes are left unchanged, the upper target is 1.1830 on the upper fractal (red dashed line).

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Global macro overview for 13/06/2018

The UK Consumer Price Index data in May was as dynamic as in the previous month, which is 0.4% or 2.4% on a yearly basis. The same situation applies to the base indicator, which maintained the value of 2.1% y/y. Both publications were exactly in line with market expectations.

The secondary inflation indicators of RPI and PPI are usually treated as secondary as they reflect trends in prices in retail trade and producer prices. The PPI Input data (a monthly survey that measures a change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operating costs of running the business) were released at the level of 2.8%, sharply higher than market expectations of 1.7% and better than the last month figure of 0.6%. On the yearly basis, the PPI Input prices rose from 5.6% to 9.2% already. The PPI Output data (a monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory) were released at the same level as a month ago, that is 0.4%, a tad higher than the anticipated figure of 0.3%. On the yearly basis, the PPI Output prices rose from 2.6% to 2.9%.

Today's readings do not bring much new to expectations in relation to the probability of interest rate hikes in August. It is worth noting, however, that yesterday, consistent with consensus, information from the labor market helped the pound, today readings with similar characteristics were unable to do so. Until the August meeting, one set of monthly data has actually become one and the increase is estimated at 51%.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the reading, the pair noted a temporary deepening of the morning slide towards the 61% Fibo at 1.3306, but it was quickly erased and the rate returns to 1.3340. There is a technical resistance at this level, so the bulls might be very active here if they want to keep the bounce valid. In a case of a successful breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3369.

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Analysis of Gold for June 13, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,291.67. Anyway, according to the H1 time frame, I found a potential end of downward correction, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of intraday supply trendline to confirm upward movement. If you see a valid breakout of supply trendline watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,300.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,302.90

R2: $1,306.70

R3: $1,309.80

Support levels:

S1: $1,296.00

S2: $1,294.40

S3: $1,289.80

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a valid breakout of supply trendline.

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Global macro overview for 13/06/2018

The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends on Wednesday 13 June with the publication of the decision on interest rates at 06:00 pm GMT. The global investors expect an increase in the target for the federal reserve rate by 25 bp to 1.75-2.00%. Together with the decision, the macroeconomic statement and forecasts will be published. The press conference of Fed chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled for 06:30 pm GMT.

The Fed has no reason to delay the hike and it seems almost certain that it will decide to raise interest rates. The market is in line with expectations and measures the probability of Fed's movement over 90%. Since the last decision to raise in March, the US economy has been developing dynamically. The second quarter, as expected, brings the acceleration of recovery. Private consumption reflects, and the dynamics of corporate investment accelerates. Importantly, the unemployment rate fell sharply by 0.3 percentage point to 3.8%, already reaching the average FOMC forecast for the entire 2018. With the average increase in employment in the first five months of the year above 200,000 one can safely assume that unemployment will continue to fall. This is a good outlook for wage pressure and inflation, which has already approached the 2.0% target. The PCE Core core inflation measure preferred by the Fed in April was 1.8% and the broader PCE ratio was 2.0%, additionally supported by an increase in energy prices.

There is no shortage of risks that were exchanged at the meeting in March and last for the second quarter. Trade tensions between the US and Mexico, Canada, China and the Eurozone can undermine business confidence, although not yet visible in the data. In addition, the Italian political crisis raised concerns about the economic prospects of the Eurozone and increased volatility on the financial markets, although in the last week these tensions clearly decreased. Despite these risks, positive arguments prevail. Accelerating growth with the support of fiscal expansion, declining unemployment rate and inflation close to the target allow the Fed to maintain the direction of "further gradual raising of the federal reserve rate" and to make a hike in June.

What does it mean for traders? As the almost certain interest rate hike is priced in by market participants already, there should not be much change in the general direction of the US Dollar, so the uptrend should be continued and Dollar should appreciate again across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the top at the level of 95.03 the market started a corrective cycle, that pushed the prices out of the channel. The bears have managed to make the low at the level of 93.20 and since then the price is slowly rising. The biggest concern for bulls is the internal golden trend line resistance around the level of 93.90 that prevents the price to rally higher. A breakout above this line will open the road towards the level of 94.31 and even swing top at the level of 95.03. The positive momentum and stochastic support the bullish bias.

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Review of GBP / USD as of June 13, 2013

Yesterday, the pound moved pretty much from side to side but in the end, it remained virtually unchanged. As usual, the answer lies in the statistics, which was quite curious. At first glance, everything indicates that the pound was supposed to fall, without stopping. The growth rate of the average wage in the UK has unpleasantly slowed down. The growth rates of average wages without premiums have slowed from 2.9% to 2.8%, and taking into account premiums, it decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. So not only do salaries with premiums grew more slowly than without bonuses their growth rates have also slowed down. So the reasons for the joy were not these in particular. The last nail in the coffin of the pound was supposed to be inflation in the US, as it unexpectedly accelerated faster than forecasts. It was expected that inflation would accelerate from 2.5% to 2.7%, but it gave a pleasant surprise, accelerating to 2.8%. However, after the feverish jumps back and forth, market participants drew attention to data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK, as it decreased by 7.7 thousand, while waiting for an increase of 11.3 thousand. In other words, the situation on the market Labor in the UK is improving, at least in terms of employment, and in such a situation, it is quite logical that the growth rate of wages will slow down. So there is no reason for panic.

The rapid growth of inflation in the US removes all doubts about today's outcome of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations. Now, probably, it's just impossible to find doubters that the Fed will raise the refinancing rate from 1.75% to 2.00% today. Moreover, a few hours before the announcement of the regulator's decision, data on producer prices will be published, whose growth rates should accelerate from 2.6% to 2.8%. Given that producer prices are ahead of inflation, their growth suggests that the Fed will continue to raise the refinancing rate. However, the intrigue is that today, there are inflation data in the UK, and it can show its growth from 2.4% to 2.5%, which on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England makes us think about the possibility of raising the refinancing rate in the UK. The fact is that the increase in the refinancing rate of the Fed has long been taken into account by the market, and today's decision of the regulator will not lead to a serious increase in the dollar. However, the very possibility of raising the refinancing rate by the Bank of England can be a great inspiration to investors. Moreover, only those in the market are engaged in what they are looking for as an excuse for correction in the dollar, and raising the refinancing rate in the UK is an excellent reason for this very correction.

Of course, there is also a very fantastic scenario of the fact that the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations will leave the refinancing rate unchanged. If this happens, then the two-month growth of the dollar was unreasonable, so disappointed investors will start selling dollars in bulk. However, the probability of this development is almost zero.

It is most likely that even before the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations, the pound will drop to 1.3300. If the Fed disappoints market participants, then coupled with rising inflation in the UK and an increase in optimistic expectations about a possible decision by the Bank of England, the pound will skyrocket to 1.3550.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD currency pair on June 13, 2018

The euro/dollar currency pair is already wagging the 1.1725 / 1.11830 for the fourth trading day in the band, where the upper boundary is a periodic level and the lower one shows us the congestion from the low-importance level and the "Fibo" value 23.6. What do we have on the market? Correction movement, after a tireless "bearish" rally, the current flat is perhaps a fairly adequate change of forces, where the "bullish" interest is gradually declining, allowing sellers to return to the market.

Further development

So far, the boundaries have not fallen, so the movement will concentrate within the range. But today, we have a pretty busy economic calendar and by the end of the trading day, there will be a FOMC statement, as well as the Fed's decision on the interest rate, where it is most likely to be raised from 1.75% up to 2.00%.

What can we expect

First, in terms of "bearish" attitude, we will see a congestion near the lower border of 1.1725 and most likely with low volatility. In the second half of the day, an increase in volatility will quickly pull to 1.1650 in case of a fix below 1.1710, wherein the the price will go even lower in case of strengthening the "bearish" background.

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Technical picture

As we see from the table below, the complex indicators also confirms the previously stated prediction. Conclusion: We actively sell

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Key Levels

Resistance zones: 1.1830 *; 1.1900; 1.2100

Support zones: 1.1725 *; 1.1650 *; 1.1540 **

* Periodic level

** Range level

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for June 13, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3307. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of downward correction, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator in creation, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3395 and at the price of 1.3463.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3418

R2: 1.3462

R3: 1.3500

Support levels:

S1: 1.3337

S2: 1.3300

S3: 1.3255

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Business pessimism of the eurozone will soon become chronic

EUR / USD

The spring, intended to push the euro lower, is shrinking more strongly. The German business sentiment index ZEW fell from -8.2 to -16.1 in June, while the expectation was -14.6. For the euro area, a similar index fell from 2.4 to -12.6 with an expectation of 0.1. In general, the business community is experiencing a pessimism similar to the one that was in the summer of 2012. But now the situation is expected to be much more difficult for Europe, therefore we expect further deterioration not only on business sentiment but also on indicators of the real sector.

On the contrary, the optimism index in small businesses in the US last month showed an increase from 104.8 to 107.8, with expectations of growth to 105.2. The base CPI for May has increased by 0.2% against the forecast of 0.1%, and the total CPI showed an increase of the expected 0.2%. On an annualized basis, the basic CPI also increased from 2.1% YoY to 2.2% YoY, the total CPI from 2.5% YoY to 2.8% YoY. Only the deficit of the US budget worsened, as the May estimate showed a deficit of -147.0 billion dollars against the forecast of -119.0 billion dollars.

Today, April assessment of the industrial production of the euro area will be published, with a forecast at -0.6% against 0.5% in March. According to US, producer price growth (PPI) index will come in May, showing 0.3% forecast. The base PPI is expected to increase by 0.2%. And, of course, the spring that can send the euro deep down will be the basis for the Fed's decision to raise the base rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. Investors still hopes for a small chance that the ECB tomorrow will disclose a clear plan for curtailing the QE program and that they will get some psychological relief. But as we wrote earlier, even if the Central Bank decides to complete the QE program in December, this does not have a strong impact on the markets. Nevertheless, the probability that the ECB program will extend (or postpone the announcement of its exact date) is increasing every day.

We are waiting for the euro at 1.1620 and 1.1510.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for June 13, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $6.424. The police in Japan are cracking down on the illegal use of personal computers for cryptocurrency mining. Multiple prefectural police departments are currently investigating one particular case and pursuing criminal charges, which would make it the first criminal case in Japan where computers are illegally used for mining cryptocurrencies. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a bearish flag in creation, which is sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.315 and at the price of $6.136.

Support/Resistance

$6.595 – Intraday resistance

$6.442– Intraday support

$6.315 – Objective target 1

$6.136 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Review of EUR / USD as of June 13, 2013

The dollar strengthened yesterday which was the result of incredibly good inflation data that accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8% while the growth was projected to 2.7%. In fact, inflation data lifted any doubts about today's outcome of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations, and the Fed is waiting for an increase in the refinancing rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. We must admit that despite the fairly good growth in inflation, the dollar has not strengthened too much, and this is not related to the market's expectation of the regulator's decision. The fact is that the increase in the refinancing rate has long been taken into account in the value of the dollar, so that after the announcement of the results, serious upheavals should not be expected, and the strengthening of the dollar will be moderate.

It is important to pay special attention to statistics which will be published before the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations. In particular, we are talking about industrial production in Europe, the growth rate of which should slow from 3.0% to 2.8%. This, naturally, does not add optimism to the euro. And shortly before the announcement of the Fed's decision on the refinancing rate, data on producer prices in the US will be published, the growth rates of which can accelerate from 2.6% to 2.8%. This inspires confidence, if not in further inflation, then at least in its stabilization at current levels. All this will inspire investors' confidence that the Fed will continue to raise the refinancing rate. So it is clear with what mood traders are approaching today.

Although everything indicates that the dollar will gain a little more, we should not discount the possibility that the Fed will keep the refinancing rate unchanged. Of course, the probability of such a development of events is leaning towards zero, but then the devil is not a joke. If this happens, then the dollar will instantly lose its positions, and quite strongly. After all, it means that the strengthening of the dollar, which lasted almost two months, was in vain and unfounded.

Thus, we have two scenarios. Almost certainly, the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations will raise the refinancing rate, which will lead to a reduction in the euro to 1.1700. If the Fed really surprises the market and disappoints investors, even the mark of 1.1900 does not seem to be the limit.

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BOE's British pound can paint in gray colors

GBP / USD

Yesterday, the British pound showed an increased volatility on the back of better-than-expected employment data and the British Parliament adoption of the Brexit bill, which was the exact date of the country's withdrawal from the EU to be settled on March 29, 2019.

The number of applications for unemployment benefits for May fell by -7.7 thousand against the forecast of 11.3 thousand and 28.2 thousand in April (revised down from 31.2 thousand). The average three-month employment increased by 146 thousand against the forecast of 124 thousand. Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.2%, the average salary level in April increased by the expected 2.5%.

The market's reaction to the removal of the exact date of Brexit contains a hidden hope as long as England stayed longer in this union, which will allow it to negotiate a good trade agreement. But yesterday's resignation of Justice Minister Phillip Lee says the opposite, he said that the government's desire to withdraw from the EU and at the same time get maximum privileges is unrealistic. It seems that the cancellation of the exact date of Brexit will push the EU to more aggressive actions, which automatically entails a strengthening of the Theresa May's impeachment process. According to rumors, four more ministers are going to resign as an indication of disagreement with the prime minister on the exit of the EU.

Today, UK inflation for May will be released. The main indices are expected to remain unchanged. According to the forecast, the basic CPI will remain at the level of 2.1% YoY, and the total CPI may remain at 2.4% YoY. The housing price index may rise from 4.2% YoY to 4.4% YoY, while the producer price index may show growth from 5.3% YoY to 7.6% YoY. Retail prices may remain at the previous 3.4% YoY.

Generally, the positive inflationary data in Great Britain is associated with an increase in oil prices, as expected. But the cost of oil in May has already declined and it is declining even now. In June, the forecasts for the coming months are also falling, as OPEC intends to increase oil production. This means, today's inflation figures are unlikely to cause increased interest among strategic investors.

In the evening at 7:00 London time, the Fed will raise its rate by a quarter of a point according to expectations. We are waiting for the decline of the British currency to 1.3210.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 13, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943 for that it will be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9994.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 13 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.3343 with a return to resistance level of 1.3387 will be a good signal to buy the pound, the main goal of which is the area of 1.3423, where it is recommended to lock in profits in the morning. If the GBP / USD falls below the level of 1.3343, long positions can be considered for a rebound from 1.3303.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to consolidate below the level of 1.3343 in the morning, and weak inflation data in the UK may lead to a larger sale of the pound to areas of 1.3303 and 1.3255, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of growth above the level of 1.3387 in the morning, selling the pound is best to return to the rebound from resistance 1.3423.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 13, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair rose from the level of 1.1673 towards 1.1837 this week. Now, the current price is set at 1.1743. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1798 and 1.1837. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 1.1673. Today, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to move in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.1673, to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.1673 and 1.1837. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.1673 with the first target at 1.1798 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.1837 (double top). Nevertheless, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1673, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1673. The market will decline further to 1.1634 in order to return to the last bearish wave. Additionally, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.1586.

Comment:

- The weekly pivot is seen at the level of 1.1712.

- The market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 13 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EURUSD, you need:

Today, euro buyers should return to resistance level 1.1776 in the first half of the day. Above this level, a larger upward wave will lead to the renewal of yesterday's highs of around 1.1821. The main goal for long positions will be to go beyond the level of 1.1821 and update the area of 1.1869, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of a decrease in buying the EUR, it is possible to form a false breakout in the area of 1.1730 or to rebound from larger areas of 1.1692 and 1.1657.

To open short positions for EURUSD, you need:

An unsuccessful fastening above the resistance level of 1.1776 with a return to it in the first half of the day will be the first signal for opening short positions in the euro with the main goal of breakdown and consolidation below the support level of 1.1730, which will lead to the formation of a larger downward wave to 1.1692 and 1.1657, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of growth above the level of 1.1776, selling the euro is best on the rebound from 1.1821 and 1.1869.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Euro and pound decline before the outcome of the Fed meeting

The demand for the US dollar returned in the afternoon of Tuesday, June 12. Inflation data did not lead to sharp changes in the market but the expectation that during the next meeting, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, gave optimism to buyers of the US dollar.

It will also be very important to understand whether the Central Bank plans to continue pursuing a policy of tightening and raising interest rates in the short term because expectations about higher interest rates in the US make the dollar more attractive for market participants.

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Yesterday, data came out indicating that the US budget deficit for the first 8 months of the financial year has increased. This happened due to the fact that once again, expenses exceeded revenues in comparison with the same period a year earlier.

According to the report of the US Treasury, from October 2017 to May 2018, the government's budget deficit amounted to 532.24 billion dollars, which is 23% more than in the same period of the previous year, when the deficit was equal to 432.85 billion dollars. In May this year, the deficit was at $146.80 billion, or 66% more than in May 2017.

As noted above, such a gap occurred because of a decrease in government revenues by 10% in May compared to the same period last year. Expenses for the reporting period increased by 11%. Economists had expected the deficit in May to be at $144 billion.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is most likely that the pressure on the euro will remain until the Fed decision on interest rates. Buying the euro is best after a decline from the larger support levels of 1.1690 and 1.1650. As for the sales of the European currency, we should closely observe the behavior of the pair in the resistance areas of 1.1780 and 1.1840, near the highs of the month.

The British pound received support yesterday after it became known that British Prime Minister Theresa May won the parliamentary vote on Brexit. British lawmakers rejected a request to give parliament greater influence in matters relating to Brexit, which is a good signal for investors who feared that the British parliament would fight for more stringent conditions and a scenario for withdrawing from the European Union.

However, buyers did not manage to keep their positions against the backdrop of a sharp strengthening of the US dollar against a number of risky assets before the meeting of the Federal Reserve System.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of June 13

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the price is in correction from the upward structure and forms the potential for the bottom of June 7. For the GBP / USD pair, the continuation of the movement towards the top is possible after the breakdown of 1.3457. The level of 1.3381 is the key support. For the USD / CHF pair, the price forms a strong potential for the upward movement of June 7. For the of USD / JPY pair, the price issued a local structure from June 8 to continue moving to the top. For the EUR / JPY pair, the continuation of the upward trend from May 29 is expected after the breakdown of 129.85. The level of 128.68 is the key support. For the GBP / JPY pair, we have expanded the potential for the upward movement towards the level of 150.37.

Forecast for June 13:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1955, 1.1907, 1.1849, 1.1824, 1.1752, 1.1721, 1.1672 and 1.1631. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of May 30. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.1824 - 1.1849. In this case, the target is 1.1907. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.1955. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1752-1.1721. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1672. This level is the key support for the upward structure from May 30. Its breakdown will lead to the development of the downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.1631.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1850 Take profit: 1.1905

Buy 1.1908 Take profit: 1.1955

Sell: 1.1750 Take profit: 1.1722

Sell: 1.1718 Take profit: 1.1674

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3548, 1.3495, 1.3457, 1.3381, 1.3354, 1.3311 and 1.3273. Here, we follow the upward structure from May 29. Currently, we expect movement towards the level of 1.3457. The breakdown of this level, in turn, will lead to a movement towards the level of 1.3495. Near this level we expect the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3548. From this level, we expect a departure towards correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3381 - 1.3354. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3311. This level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3273.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3460 Take profit: 1.3490

Buy: 1.3497 Take profit: 1.3545

Sell: 1.3380 Take profit: 1.3355

Sell: 1.3352 Take profit: 1.3313

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9990, 0.9963, 0.9924, 0.9896, 0.9835, 0.9812, 0.9784 and 0.9754. Here, the price issued a pronounced structure from June 7 for the development of an upward trend. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9896. In this case, the target is 0.9924. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 0.9926 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target here is 0.9963. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 0.9990. After reaching this level, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9835 - 0.9812, hence the probability of a turn to the top is high. The breakdown at the level of 0.9812 will lead to the development of the downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.9784.

The main trend is a local downward structure from May 29, the formation of the potential for the top of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9922

Buy: 0.9926 Take profit: 0.9960

Sell: 0.9833 Take profit: 0.9814

Sell: 0.9810 Take profit: 0.9786

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 112.24, 111.90, 111.31, 110.92, 110.69, 110.15, 109.79, 109.46 and 108.91. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of May 29. The price formalized the local structure for the top of June 8. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after passing through the price range of 110.69 - 110.92. In this case, the target is 111.31. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 112.24. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 112.24 - 111.90.

Departure towards correction is expected after the breakdown of 110.15. Here, the target is 109.79. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 109.79 - 109.46. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of the the downward structure. Here, the potential target is 108.91.

The main trend is an upward cycle from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.92 Take profit: 111.30

Buy: 111.33 Take profit: 111.90

Sell: 110.12 Take profit: 109.82

Sell: 109.77 Take profit: 109.48

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3278, 1.3219, 1.3159, 1.3093, 1.3053, 1.2905, 1.2856, 1.2819 and 1.2758. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 31. The development of this level is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.3053 - 1.3093. In this case, the target is 1.3159. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 1.3160 will lead to a movement towards the level of 1.3219. From this level, there is a high probability of leaving in the correction. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3278.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range 1.2905 - 1.2856. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2758.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3093 Take profit: 1.3156

Buy: 1.3162 Take profit: 1.3216

Sell: 1.2905 Take profit: 1.2858

Sell: 1.2819 Take profit: 1.2760

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels in the scale of H1 are: 0.7719, 0.7677, 0.7639, 0.7619, 0.7553, 0.7515 and 0.7474. Here, the price forms the potential for a downward movement from June 6. The continuation of the movement towards the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 0.7553. In this case, the target is 0.7515. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 0.7474.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7619 - 0.7639. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of an upward structure. Here, the first target is 0.7677. This level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from June 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7640 Take profit: 0.7674

Buy: 0.7679 Take profit: 0.7717

Sell: 0.7550 Take profit: 0.7516

Sell: 0.7513 Take profit: 0.7476

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For the of EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 132.58, 131.40, 130.83, 129.85, 129.22, 128.68 and 127.77. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 29. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 129.85. In this case, the target is 130.83. In the area of 130.83 - 131.40 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 132.58. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 129.22 - 128.68. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 127.77. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.87 Take profit: 130.80

Buy: 131.42 Take profit: 132.55

Sell: 129.20 Take profit: 128.70

Sell: 128.65 Take profit: 127.80

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 150.37, 149.66, 148.72, 148.14, 147.38, 146.89 and 146.11. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of May 29. Short-term upward movement is possible in area of 148.14 - 148.72. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 149.66. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 150.37. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in area of 147.38 - 146.89. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 146.11. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.16 Take profit: 148.70

Buy: 148.76 Take profit: 149.64

Sell: 147.36 Take profit: 146.92

Sell: 146.85 Take profit: 146.15

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The Yen wants to raise the Fed's rate among other currencies

USD / JPY

The yen is growing on an external optimistic political and economic background on the third day. The beginning of normalizing the relations between the US and the DPRK took place, although the US has not yet cancelled any sanctions against North Korea, to which China has already called. Japan's producer price index in May rose from 2.1% YoY to 2.7% YoY, while the tertiary index of business activity in services rose by 1.0% m / m in April against the forecast of 0.6%. The BSI index of business sentiment in large industrial companies for the 2nd quarter showed that the index fell from 2.9 to -3.2 with an expectation of growth to 3.2 points. But stock indices are rising. Yesterday, the S & P500 added 0.17%, and today the Japanese Nikkei 225 is growing by 0.37%, against the fall of the Chinese indicator, China A50 by -0.57%.

We are waiting for the yen to rise by 112.05. The Fed is likely to raise rates today.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 13/06/2018

The Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (FCA) wrote to the presidents of banks about the potential risks they face in the case of cryptocurrencies. It calls for greater oversight of client activities if they are considered to be dealing with what the agency calls "crypto assets".

For bank customers who offer services to consumers in cryptocurrencies, the appropriate steps to reduce the risk of financial crimes include "conducting due diligence on key people in the client's business" and "ensuring that the existing framework for financial crime adequately reflects activities related to cryptography in which the company is involved. "

While the FCA acknowledged that not all companies and individuals trading or having cryptocurrencies will be at risk to the same extent, the Authority listed several "high risk" indicators. These are situations when the client uses the state cryptocurrency, "which is designed to avoid international financial sanctions" - presumably an indication that trading in a Venezuela token Petro will close the account. Another situation involves retail customers sending large sums to sell tokens or initial monetary offers. According to the FCA letter, these clients create an increased risk of investment fraud.

FCA goes on to say that not all motives for using cryptocurrencies are criminal in nature, but given the potential anonymity and the possibility of transferring money between countries, the office expects financial companies to be particularly cautious in cases related to cryptocurrencies.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. Overnight the internal support at $6,588 had been violated and the market has hit the impulsive scenario invalidation level at $6,402. So far there are no clues from the price action whether the bulls are willing to push the price away from this level. The next important support is seen at the level of $5,790. Please notice the increase in the downward momentum during the recent move down. This kind of market behavior indicates a further weakness and lower prices soon.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for June 13, 2018

EUR/AUD has been quite corrective and volatile recently after rejecting off the dynamic level with a daily close but failed to inject impulsive bearish pressure in the process to push the price lower. Though EUR has been gaining quite well against AUD recently, the long-term bearish trend is expected to take over in the coming days.

Today, the eurozone's Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.5%. Though forecasts are quite dovish at the moment for EUR, certain gains against EUR can be observed ahead of the ECB Press Conference, slated for tomorrow.

On the AUD side, ahead of the Employment Change report to be published tomorrow with expectation of decrease to 18.8k from the previous figure of 22.6k and Unemployment Rate to decrease to 5.5% from the 5.6%, the currency is expected to draw certain attention from market participants in the coming days. Moreover, today Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.6% and RBA Governor Lowe also spoke today about upcoming economic developments and monetary policies that was quite hawkish.

As for the current scenario, AUD economic reports forecasts are quite mixed but EUR is expected to struggle amid upcoming economic reports. Moreover, the central bank's policies could make an immediate impact. In the coming days, AUD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently rejecting the bulls off the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance residing below 1.5550 area. As for the current structure formed in the chart, the price has successfully retraced towards the mean after falling below 1.5750 earlier and expected to push lower towards 1.52 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.5750 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Trading plan for 13/06/2018

The financial markets remain calm today as global investors await the end of the FOMC meeting. The market maintains the strength of USD after yesterday's revelations, that the Fed is considering introducing the conference at each meeting, thus granting each other greater freedom in deciding on increases. Overnight the EUR / USD stabilized at 1.1750 and USD / JPY reached 110.60. In addition to JPY, changes in the major pairs group do not go above 0.15%.

The stock market in Asia pursued a cautious trade, maintaining the climate of Wall Street (SP500 closed down at -0.01%, but Nasdaq at + 0.6%. Japanese Nikkei gains 0.5%, while China Shanghai Composite loses 0.5%. The FOMC decision may affect the demand for emerging market assets, and in addition, concerns about global trade are not lost.

WTI crude oil dived to 65.50 at night after the API's report pointed to a drop in crude oil inventories in the US last week by 0.73 million barrels, less than expected by the current DoE report by 1.1 million. In addition, the report showed an increase in gasoline inventories by 2.33 million barrels, much more than projected 0.9 million barrels. This morning WTI is trying to rebound and testing 66.00 level.

On Wednesday 13th of June, the event of the day is, of course, the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference scheduled at the end of the US session. Nevertheless, the market participants should keep an eye on Producer & Import Prices data from Switzerland, Consumer Price Index data from the UK, Industrial Production and Employment Change data from the Eurozone and the afternoon PPI data from the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 13/06/2018:

During the night, traders could listen to the speech of the President of the RBA regarding the monetary policy of Australia. For now, there is no reason to adjust monetary policy, so that we can talk about a rate hike, we still need some time. If economic growth remains stable, then the next step of the central bank will be to tighten the policy.

Quarterly results for the first quarter were slightly stronger than expected. Nevertheless, for two years there has been no increase in productivity on the labor market, Lowe intends to emphasize more weight into household finances, especially to consumption growth. The low wage growth means that inflation does not increase. The Bank of Australia would be most pleased with the improvement of wages, because then the rest of the indicators will move in the desired direction.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a failure to break out above the 61% Fibo at the level of 0.7659 the price dropped towards the level of 0.7560 and bounced. The overnight data has made the AUD depreciate a little and the level of 0.7560 is being tested again. In a case of a further move lover, the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7513 and this support is additionally reinforced with the lower boundary od the parallel channel line. The bears would have to push stronger of they want to break below this level as well. The weak momentum supports the downside bias for now.

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Technical analysis on EUR/USD for June 13, 2018

The EUR/USD pair is pulling back as expected by our latest analysis. Price is testing 1.1740-1.17 area which is important support. I believe that price will turn higher from this area after the FOMC. At 1.17 I'm bullish about EURUSD, looking for 1.20.

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Red line - RSI resistance

Yellow rectangle - support area

Magenta line - expectations

The EUR/USD pair could not break above 1.1820 resistance yesterday. Price got rejected and pulled back towards 1.17 as expected. The RSI is below the resistance trend line. A break above the red resistance trend line will be a bullish confirmation of my bullish view. I expect EUR/USD to turn higher from the 1.17 level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on Gold for June 13, 2018

Gold price remains in the sideways trading range its been in for the last couple of weeks. Price is bouncing up and down between $1,307 and $1,290. Gold price is expected to be very volatile today around the time the Federal Reserve announces its policy.

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Magenta line - bigger trading range

Blue lines - short-term trading range

Yellow line - medium-term resistance (broken now support)

Green lines - targets

Gold price in order to achieve our short-term targets of $1,320-30 will first need to break above $1,304 and $1,307. If this happens tonight then there are a lot of chances over the next couple of weeks to reach our targets. If support at $1,290 fails we could see Gold test $1,280. A daily close below $1,280 will open the way for a push towards $1,270-60.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for June 13, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile above 129.50 area which indicates the bearish pressure persists in the current market situation. Though JPY has been quite weak with the recent fundamentals providing no hint for further gains, EUR is also struggling for gains as well.

Recently, Japan's economic reports were published with mixed results, including BSI Manufacturing Index decreasing to -3.2 from the previous positive value of 2.9 which was expected to increase to 3.2 and PPI report was published with an increase to 2.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.1%. Moreover, Tertiary Industry Activity also showed a surge to 1.0% from the previous negative value of -0.3% which was expected to be at 0.6%. Ahead of the upcoming BOJ Policy Rate and Policy Statement this week, JPY is expected to gain certain momentum over EUR if Japan manages to provide upbeat economic reports consistently in the coming days.

On the other hand, today the eurozone's Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.5%. Though forecasts are quite dovish at the moment for EUR, certain gains against EUR can be observed ahead of the ECB Press Conference to be held tomorrow.

As for the current scenario, certain volatility and correction is likely to persist in the pair in the coming days which may lead to certain indecision and indefinite pressure in the pair. Though JPY is expected to have an upper hand, recent eurozone's economic reports signal a further struggle of the currency in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently a bit bullish after the severe bullish rejection based daily candle closed yesterday above 129.50 area. Currently the price is to push lower towards 124.50 support area as it remains below 131.50 area. So, the bearish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Trading plan 06/13/2018

Trading plan 06/13/2018

The overall picture: a turn towards the dollar.

The main events for the market: today the Fed at 6 PM London time and on Thursday June 14 - the ECB.

There was a turn towards the dollar.

The market pondered the unexpected developments of the G-7 summit in Canada - and is inclined to think that the outcome of the trade disputes is in favor of Trump. In favor of the United States and the outcome of the meeting, Trump - Kim Jong-un. This strengthens the dollar, plus the Fed rate hike, almost guaranteed today.

The ECB can sharply turn the picture tomorrow - if the policy turns to tightening.

GBPUSD:

Buy from 1.3475

Sell from 1.3330

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com