Trading plan for 13/06/2018

The financial markets remain calm today as global investors await the end of the FOMC meeting. The market maintains the strength of USD after yesterday's revelations, that the Fed is considering introducing the conference at each meeting, thus granting each other greater freedom in deciding on increases. Overnight the EUR / USD stabilized at 1.1750 and USD / JPY reached 110.60. In addition to JPY, changes in the major pairs group do not go above 0.15%.

The stock market in Asia pursued a cautious trade, maintaining the climate of Wall Street (SP500 closed down at -0.01%, but Nasdaq at + 0.6%. Japanese Nikkei gains 0.5%, while China Shanghai Composite loses 0.5%. The FOMC decision may affect the demand for emerging market assets, and in addition, concerns about global trade are not lost.

WTI crude oil dived to 65.50 at night after the API's report pointed to a drop in crude oil inventories in the US last week by 0.73 million barrels, less than expected by the current DoE report by 1.1 million. In addition, the report showed an increase in gasoline inventories by 2.33 million barrels, much more than projected 0.9 million barrels. This morning WTI is trying to rebound and testing 66.00 level.

On Wednesday 13th of June, the event of the day is, of course, the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference scheduled at the end of the US session. Nevertheless, the market participants should keep an eye on Producer & Import Prices data from Switzerland, Consumer Price Index data from the UK, Industrial Production and Employment Change data from the Eurozone and the afternoon PPI data from the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 13/06/2018:

During the night, traders could listen to the speech of the President of the RBA regarding the monetary policy of Australia. For now, there is no reason to adjust monetary policy, so that we can talk about a rate hike, we still need some time. If economic growth remains stable, then the next step of the central bank will be to tighten the policy.

Quarterly results for the first quarter were slightly stronger than expected. Nevertheless, for two years there has been no increase in productivity on the labor market, Lowe intends to emphasize more weight into household finances, especially to consumption growth. The low wage growth means that inflation does not increase. The Bank of Australia would be most pleased with the improvement of wages, because then the rest of the indicators will move in the desired direction.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a failure to break out above the 61% Fibo at the level of 0.7659 the price dropped towards the level of 0.7560 and bounced. The overnight data has made the AUD depreciate a little and the level of 0.7560 is being tested again. In a case of a further move lover, the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7513 and this support is additionally reinforced with the lower boundary od the parallel channel line. The bears would have to push stronger of they want to break below this level as well. The weak momentum supports the downside bias for now.

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