US elections: Trump's chances soared

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Formally, Biden and Trump go head to head at 225 by 213 votes.

The scenario is as follows: both candidates managed to take their states. However, in the decisive, wavering states, Trump may have a growing advantage almost everywhere. And this may increase his chances of winning the race.

According to some analysts, an overly explicit course of "socialism" played against Biden - and a rapid economic recovery played for Trump.

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EURUSD

The euro gradually falls as Trump increases chances for victory.

You may keep sales from 1.1785.

Upward reversal at 1.1770.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and GBP/JPY on November 4

EUR/USD

Analysis:

The movements of the last days on the chart of the European currency canceled the upward reversal pattern that began in September. All current movements of the last month were related to the bearish correction wave of the four-hour timeframe of July 31. According to Elliott's VA, this is a stretched plane.

Forecast:

The next day is expected to move between the nearest zones in the summer. In the first half of the day, an upward trend is likely. Further, in the resistance zone, you can expect a reversal and a repeated decline. You should count on updating the local minimum.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.1720/1.1750

Support:

- 1.1650/1.1620

Recommendations:

Trading in the euro market today can be very risky due to sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. We recommend lowering the standard lot. Sales from the resistance zone are more promising.

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AUD/USD

Analysis:

Current price fluctuations fit into the algorithm of the rising wave from September 25. The structure of the wave shows the sequence (A-B-C). The decline that started today forms a correction in the final part.

Forecast:

Today, the pair's exchange rate is expected to move mainly in the lateral plane. In the next session, you can expect an attempt to put pressure on the resistance zone. By the end of the day, a decline is more likely, with a return to the support zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 0.7150/0.7180

Support:

- 0.7090/0.7060

Recommendations:

Trading on the pair's market today is quite risky and can only be successful during sessions. Tool purchases are safer.

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GBP/JPY

Analysis:

The last incomplete wave construction of the pound/yen cross is downward. It has been reporting since October 12. In the structure, the middle part (B) is close to completion. the bearish section that began in the Asian session has a reversal potential and may be the beginning of the final part (C).

Forecast:

The price is expected to move sideways the next day. After trying to put pressure on the resistance zone. A reversal and price rise in the area of the resistance zone is likely.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 137.00/137.30

Support:

- 135.90/135.60

Recommendations:

The best tactic today is to refrain from entering the pair's market until the downside reversal is complete. Short-term transactions are allowed according to the expected sequence. The lot should be reduced as much as possible.

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Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted background shows the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the instrument's movements in time!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 4, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made another local low at the level of 1.1602 as the pair is doing some up and down swing as the votes in the presidential election in the USA are still being counted. Right now everything is possible, but the market looks to be bending towards a stronger US Dollar. The momentum is weak and negative and the market conditions at the H4 time frame chart are extremely oversold, so please keep an eye on a temporary rebound. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1695. Bears are in full control of the market and the weekly outlook is bearish despite the election night in the USA.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1974

WR2 - 1.1916

WR1 - 1.1756

Weekly Pivot - 1.1698

WS1 - 1.1531

WS2 - 1.1471

WS3 - 1.1314

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair on November 4. COVID-19 and the US presidential elections. The euro is experiencing a high

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COVID-19: The United States has again recorded almost 95 thousand new coronavirus cases. Aside from that, deaths caused by the virus have also increased very sharply.

The same problem is observed in Europe as well, thus, most European countries have again implemented quarantine, which puts pressure both on the euro and oil.

US elections: As of the first counting of votes, Biden is on the lead, having 224 electoral votes, while Trump has 213. This just means that both candidates still have a chance of winning (270 votes is needed to win the race).

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EUR/USD - During the night of the US elections, the euro experienced sharp jumps in the market, which is actually not typical for the currency. But by the European session, the situation seems to have calmed again.

Open short positions from 1.1785.

Open long positions from 1.1770

New shorts can be opened if the euro consolidates below 1.1610

Next week, the market will be driven by the Fed's decision on monetary policy, as well as by the latest US employment reports.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

There are two reasons for oil's growth

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The prices of oil are increasing due to two reasons: OPEC+ meetings and the US dollar's weakening, which is associated with the US elections. In particular, the growth of oil prices is due to the expectations of the nearing OPEC + talks on the planned postponement of easing cuts.

On Monday, Alexander Novak, Minister of Energy, met with oil producers to discuss a delay in easing production cuts by another three months. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have hinted for weeks that its plan to increase supply by nearly 2 million barrels a day from January is being revised as demand falls.

In view of this, the rest of the week promises to be just as agitated, since the US elections could change everything about the US policy – from fiscal stimulus to Iran to hydraulic fracturing. In connection with these events, China, in turn, remains a powerful territory for global demand: the authorities increased the quota for the use of foreign oil by non-state structures by more than 20% next year.

The increase in the Chinese import quota, which is equivalent to approximately 823,000 barrels per day, is mainly due to the expansion of the refining capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Petrochemical Group. At the same time, Chinese oil purchases have recently increased, in preparation for a new quota.

Moreover, even though OPEC and its allies seem to be postponing production increases, some members, including Iraq and Nigeria, appear to be undermining the group's efforts to strengthen oil markets. According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC production rose by 470,000 barrels per day to 24.74 million barrels per day in October.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 4, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

Cryptocurrencies will now be subject to new regulations in Hong Kong as the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) suggested banning retail investors from trading cryptocurrencies. The new regulations are also aimed at forcing Hong Kong's cryptocurrency exchanges to obtain a license.

At a Hong Kong Fintech event on Tuesday, SFC CEO Ashley Alder said the Hong Kong government will establish a "new licensing system" under the anti-money laundering regulation for platforms that trade "any type of crypto asset even if they are not classified as securities. "

Exactly a year ago, the SFC introduced regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges to approve licensing, but this framework applied to platforms that offered at least one cryptocurrency that was legally recognized as securities. However, according to reports, an official said in a statement on Tuesday:

"In the current legal framework, if a platform operator is genuinely determined to operate completely outside the regulatory radar, it can do so simply by making sure that its traded crypto assets do not fall under the legal definition of a security."

The Hong Kong government even planned to introduce a consultation document to gather views on proposed new cryptocurrency laws. In addition, the new rules have provided investors with better protection by fighting fraud and money laundering, according to financial services and treasury secretary Christopher Hui Ching-yu.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced to the middle of the range after a new local low had been made at the level of $369.57. There is a Pin Bar candle made at the end of the up move, so the bearish pressure intensify around the level of $389.90. The momentum is now weak and negative, which indicates a possibility of another wave down towards the level of $362.60 and $355.60. If a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $456.03

WR2 - $431.91

WR1 - $415.05

Weekly Pivot - $393.33

WS1 - $376.79

WS2 - $355.02

WS3 - $337.80

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 04/11/2020

The pair moved up on Tuesday and tested the pullback level of 61.8% at 1.3054 (blue dotted line). Today, the price, working out the news background, went down and tested the support line at 1.2946 (red bold line). It will try to continue moving up. News on the market is expected at 12:30 UTC (Pound) and 16:14, 18:00, and 18:30 UTC (Pound).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1)

Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the support line 1.2948 (red bold line) to reach the pullback level of 50.0% at 1.3016 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the upward movement will continue with the goal of 1.3054 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis – up
  • Fibonacci Levels – up
  • Volumes – up
  • Candle Analysis – up
  • Trend Analysis – down
  • Bollinger Bands – up
  • Weekly Chart – up

General conclusion:

From the support line at 1.2948 (red bold line), the price will try to continue moving up in order to reach the pullback level of 50.0% at 1.3016 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the upward movement will continue with the goal of 1.3054 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: From the pullback level of 38.2% at 1.2977 (blue dotted line), the price will work down to reach the support line at 1.2948 (red bold line). If this line is tested, it will work down to the target of 1.2867 with a rollback level of 61.8% (red dotted line)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 4, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

Bitcoin has experienced its worst downward correction today in almost 10 years. Data from BTC.com's resource monitoring shows that Bitcoin's difficulty automatically improved by 16% on Tuesday. Estimates previously suggested the revision would be around 13%, the second highest in Bitcoin history. Earlier in 2011, there was a greater difference - 18%, which also happened at the end of October.

Difficulty adjustments occur automatically every 2016 blocks and allow Bitcoin to remain "hard" money regardless of any external factors affecting the miners. Such a reduction encourages more industry participants to compete for block subsidy rewards, with the result that the difficulty begins to increase again.

For users, this means that a downward revision will reduce fees and shorten blocking times as well as reduce the size of uncompleted transactions in the Bitcoin mempool. According to Earn.com's estimates, the optimal Bitcoin transaction fee remains high at 80,000 satoshi ($ 11).

Meanwhile, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network seemed to shift on Tuesday, and estimated weekly averages began to rise. The hash speed allows you to see how much computing power is being spent on validating Bitcoin transactions. A few weeks ago, the index was at its highest ever, but lost around 25% in the second half of October.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has finally hit the $14k level (the exact top was made at $14,005) during the US election night, but another Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made at the this level. The market conditions are extremely overbought on H4 and daily time frame, so a pull-back or correction might occur any time now. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $13,296 and $13,116. The key technical support is located at $12, 625.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $15,648

WR2 - $14,723

WR1 - $14,351

Weekly Pivot - $13,475

WS1 - $13,116

WS2 - $12,252

WS3 - $11,845

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $14,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fluctuating movements: traders focus their attention to the US elections

The currency market has entered a turmoil zone. The dollar pairs are associated with events in the United States, where votes are currently being counted. During today's Asian session, the situation changed literally every hour – Joe Biden took the lead at first, then Donald Trump began to actively catch up with him. Therefore, the dollar pairs reacted correspondingly. For example, the AUD/USD pair managed to update the three-week high (0.7220) over the past few hours, and then collapse by almost a hundred points to the level of 0.7045. But when Mr. Biden tried to bypass his opponent Mr. Trump again, the Australian dollar pulled back from the lows and settled at the base of the 71st figure. Such movements are solely due to one fundamental factor – all traders' attention is focused on the counting of votes of American voters.

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By 9:00 GMT, Joe Biden is still leading in the number of electors, but Trump is winning the key states. In almost all states where there are no results yet, polls show Trump is in the lead, with a slight margin, that is, only by 1-2%. So far, both candidates have every chance of winning. The Republican defeats the Democrat in all six so-called "swing" states, where it is not known until recently which party and candidate will win the election.

First of all, it should be noted that Trump won in Florida, receiving 29 electoral votes and in Georgia (16 votes), where 76% of the ballots were counted. As we can see, the current president is winning confidently in both states. In Iowa (where 6 votes are at stake), 90% of the ballots have already been counted and Trump's advantage over Biden is 6%. In North Carolina (15 votes), after counting nearly all ballots, Trump leads by 2%. So far, data are available only for 35 US states and the District of Columbia.

At the moment, Biden has 224 electors, while Trump has 212 electors. In order to win, votes of 270 electors are needed. It is worth noting that all the "recorded" victories of candidates in the above states correspond to pre-election forecasts. The key to these elections are the results in Florida, where Trump has a good chance of winning, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In other words, we have a vague situation. Therefore, high volatility in the currency market (especially for dollar pairs) will persist. It should also be noted that in addition to the presidential elections, the by-elections to Congress also took place yesterday. According to the American press, the Democratic Party will retain a majority in the House of Representatives. But the main result, which is from the US Senate, has not yet been drawn. The outcome of the battle for a majority in the Upper House of Congress, where Republicans controlled 53 of the 100 seats, is still unclear. It is worth recalling here that if the Democrats win both the Senate and the House of Representatives, they will be able to lobby their bills more effectively later (including a new package of incentives), threatening the White House (if Trump is re-elected) to block Republican legislative initiatives.

Due to a lot of uncertainty, it is still risky to trade dollar pairs at the moment. Trump and Biden are going head-to-head, and there is currently no clear favorite in the presidential race. This suggests that the movement can swing in one direction or another for the next few hours. At the same time, the reaction of the head of the White House can be quite aggressive in case of a loss. In connection to this, Trump has already posted on Twitter a quite ambiguous message: "We did a great job, but they are trying to steal the election. We will never let them do it." All this suggests that the electoral process can be continued in the courts.

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In terms of news background, particularly, the US election, it can be noted that the Australian dollar received unexpected support from China yesterday, no matter how strange it may sound. As a result, Beijing ordered them yesterday to stop buying at least seven product categories from Australia, including coal, copper, lumber, barley, sugar, wine and lobster. On the one hand, this is negative news for the AUD, since it indicates the ongoing conflict between both countries. But on the other hand, the Chinese still do not touch iron ore – the largest item of Chinese imports from Australia. A strategically important raw material product was not restricted.

However, this fundamental factor had a certain strength for the AUD/USD pair yesterday, and may resume its action in the future. But today, all dollar pairs are only tied to events in the United States. In my opinion, the general situation with the US elections will be clear by the beginning of the US session on Wednesday, after which the main market reaction will follow. For now, it is not suggested to open any trading positions, including the AUD/USD pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR/USD for November 4, 2020

The pair traded upward yesterday and tested the pullback level of 38.2% - 1.1720 (blue dotted line). Early this morning, due to high volatility (the market reaction to the news on the US presidential election), the price initially went up, testing the 50% pullback level - 1.1751 (blue dotted line), and then went down, testing the lower border of the Bollinger lines 1.1602 (black dotted line). The price may continue to move upward. Economic calendar news is expected at 13.15, 15.00, and 15.30 UTC (USD).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market from the support level of 1.1622 (white bold line), can continue to move upward with the goal of 1.1683 – a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dotted line). If this line is tested, further upward work is possible with the goal of 1.1720 - a pullback level of 39.2% (blue dotted line).

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Figure 1 (Daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - up
  • Fibonacci levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candlestick analysis - up
  • Trend analysis - up
  • Bollinger bands - up
  • Weekly chart - up

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward with the goal of 1.1683 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dotted line). If this line is tested, further upward work is possible with the goal of 1.1720 - a pullback level of 39.2% (blue dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: upon moving down and reaching the support level - 1.1622 (white bold line), the price may start moving up to the pullback level of 14.6% - 1.1660 (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 4. COT reports. Pound reacts to US vote count, loses ground

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The British pound generated several signals to enter the market yesterday, which made it possible to earn. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the entry points in more detail. Even in my afternoon forecast, I paid attention to the signal to buy the pound and advised you to open long positions from the 1.2984 level, especially if the entry point was confirmed by another false breakout, which happened. I marked the area on the chart where it was possible and necessary to enter long positions. The upward movement was more than 80 points. Short positions from resistance at 1.3058 during the first test did not bring much profit, although they also took place.

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Taking into account the pressure under which the market is now, and what volatility is observed on it, there is clearly no need to rush into making a decision to enter it. Yesterday's bullish momentum stopped after the first results of voting in various states appeared, from which it became clear that Biden's victory would not be so easy, if at all. According to the results of the first polls, 14 states voted for Donald Trump, against 12, which prefer to see Joe Biden as the new president. Accordingly, the market reaction was not long in coming and the US dollar regained all its positions against the British pound.

Now buyers need to defend support at 1.2967, and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open long positions in the hopes of a return to resistance at 1.3043. Data on activity in the UK service sector could provide support, which should be better than the economists forecasts. An additional task for the bulls is to settle above resistance 1.3043 in the first half of the day, the test of which on the reverse side, similar to yesterday's entry point into long positions, forms a good buy signal, which can quickly return GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.3136, where I recommend taking profit. In case the pound falls on the new results of the vote count in the US, it is best not to rush into buy positions. Perhaps the price will stop in the support area of 1.2914, but most likely the large bulls will prefer to return to the market only after the 1.2856 low has been updated, on which the further large upward movement of the pair depends. From it, you can open long positions with the expectation of a rebound of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers are now aiming for support at 1.2967. A breakout and consolidation below this range will form a new entry point for short positions, which will cause the pound to fall to a low of 1.2914, which the pair failed to reach today during the Asian session. But as I noted above, sellers will focus on a large low at 1.2856, on which the current bull market depends. A breakout and getting the pair to settle below this range will lead to removing a number of buy stop orders, which will pull down the pound to the 1.2807 and 1.2749 areas, where a slight upward correction of the pair can be observed. In case bears are not active and the pair grows in the first half of the day, it is best to think about sell positions after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3043. It is possible to open short positions in GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only from a high of 1.3136, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day. However, much will depend on new state and voting data.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for October 27 showed a reduction in both short and long positions. Long non-commercial positions fell from 39,836 to 31,799. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell from 41,836 to 38,459. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was at -6,660, against -2,000 a week earlier, which indicates that the sellers of the British pound retained control and also shows their minimal advantage in the current situation.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an active opposition of buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator near 1.2965 will increase the pressure on the pound. Growth will be limited in the area of the upper level of the indicator 1.3110.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 4. COT reports. Trump is not as simple as everyone thought. US dollar

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

In yesterday's afternoon forecast, I drew attention to buying the euro in the support area of 1.1701, the breakdown of which took place in the middle of the day. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how buyers confirmed their presence with several more false breakouts, afterwards the euro went up further, just barely reaching the resistance of 1.1754. However, the bullish momentum did not continue and after the first results of voting in different states appeared, it became clear that Biden's victory would not be so easy, if at all. According to the results of the first polls, 14 states voted for Donald Trump, against 12, which prefer to see Joe Biden as the new president. Accordingly, the market reaction was not long in coming and the US dollar regained all its positions, renewing its monthly lows against the euro.

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At the moment, it is better not to rush to enter the market at such volatility, since we are not certain whether we can reach such large levels today, since no one knows which direction the market will prefer. One thing is clear, the bulls need to settle above the resistance of 1.1663, which will push the pair up to the high of 1.1701. However, I recommend building up long positions after settling above this range with the goal of reaching the 1.1765 level, from which the entire fall began today. In case the pair falls, forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.1604 will keep buyers optimistic. The absence of bulls' activity in that area will pull down the pair to a low of 1.1541, where we can watch the downward movement stop and an upward correction of 15-20 points. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately on a rebound only from the low of 1.1490.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers have one simple task - to keep the resistance at 1.1663, where forming a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions in the euro. Slightly higher is the no less important level of 1.1701, which I also recommend paying attention to, as its breakout will lead to a powerful bullish momentum. The bears' main goal in the first half of the day will be to form a breakout and get the pair to settle below the support of 1.1604, which will raise the pressure on the euro and lead to a large sale of EUR/USD to the area of the lows of 1.1541 and 1.1490. You can count on such a scenario after the release of a number of fundamental statistics on activity in the service sector of the eurozone countries, which will probably slow down due to the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. In case EUR/USD grows above the resistance of 1.1701, there is no need to rush to sell. It is best to postpone short positions until the 1.1765 highs are renewed in hopes of a 15-20 point correction, or to sell the euro for a rebound from the new local highs of 1.1835 and 1.1915.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for October 27 showed a reduction in both long and short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets believe that the bull market will continue and so they prefer to act with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 229,878 to 217,443, while short non-commercial positions also fell to 61,888 from 63,935. The total non-commercial net position decreased to 155,555 from 165,943 a week earlier. However, the bullish sentiments for the euro remains rather high in the medium term. The more the euro will decline against the US dollar at the end of this year, the more attractive it will be for new investors, especially following the US presidential elections, when additional pressure on the market on this issue eases.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an active opposition of buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of growth, the upper border of the indicator at 1.1765 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound is unlikely to follow what the majority thinks

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The pound, together with other major currencies, took a wait-and-see attitude while it awaited the US presidential election results. Experts believe that the pound's reaction to this event will be unusual, which will unfold in the near future.

Based on the estimates of ING analysts, the British currency is seriously lagging behind most other currencies that are economically sensitive to the US currency. This scenario is possible if Joe Biden, the candidate of the US Democratic party, wins the election. ING believes that a democratic preponderance is the most favorable result for the market, since in this case, fiscal incentives are likely to rise and international relations will stabilize.

In case that Joe Biden "reigns" in the medium term, we can assume that stock indexes will rise and a large-scale package of economic financing measures will be adopted. However, in the long term, the leading stock indexes are likely to decline due to increased taxes. It should be recalled that growth in the tax burden, for example, the increase in corporate tax from the current 21% to 28%, is included in the election program of the Democrat.

Against this background, the dynamics of the pound is affected negatively by a tense external stop. This currency's volatility is increasing, and plummets from time to time in order to rise on the next round of growth. Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair increased from 0.6% to 1.2992. Today, the pair slightly lost ground. It moved around the range of 1.2987-1.2988 in the morning, gradually rising to reach new highs.

Experts believe that the strengthening of internal risks associated with the current monetary policy is also another factor that puts pressure on the pound. Tomorrow, the Bank of England plans to hold its next meeting, where a decision regarding increasing the quantitative easing program is expected.

For the third factor, analysts consider the continuous issues related to Brexit, which threatens the growth of the pound. According to spokesman Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of Great Britain, the United Kingdom is ready to negotiate with the European Union to conclude a mutually beneficial trade deal. This is very favorable for the British currency, since the reduction of geopolitical tensions contributes to the purchase of the pound. However, a new political crisis hangs over the UK. This is related to the dissatisfaction of some politicians with the actions of Mr. B. Johnson to contain the spread of COVID-19. Against this background, major market players slightly increased sales of GBP, which led to a reduction in its dynamics.

Now, experts say that the pound may surprise the market after the US presidential elections. Although it is expected to significantly decline, another scenario is possible that can surely be surprising. Here, it is likely that the pound will break through the current negative trends and manage to increase to the next highs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 4? Plan for opening and closing trades on Wednesday

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair started to sharply decline last night, which reached a total of over 150 points. It happened around the time that polling stations were closed in America. There were no compelling reasons for such a solid strengthening of the US dollar, although we will talk about the fundamental background a little below. The most important thing now is that the technical picture is completely destroyed. After such a sharp drop, one cannot say that the downward trend has resumed now (although the previous local low was updated), but at the same time, one cannot also say that the upward trend is gaining momentum. Now we need the markets to calm down, afterwards we need to re-evaluate the technical picture and draw conclusions. No trend lines or channel can be drawn. Other signals are also very difficult to receive. The MACD indicator does not normally react to all price reversals - they are too sharp.

At night, the first results of the counting of votes in the United States began to arrive and, according to these data, Joe Biden is in the lead by a large margin. Thus, we can conclude that traders reacted precisely to this factor. However, take note that these are only interim voting results. The final results will become known later and, of course, may differ from the current ones in any direction. You should also remember that the European trading session will open in the coming hours. Simply put, it is still night in the US, the exchanges are closed, so trading among the major players is not carried out. Therefore, with the opening of Europe, and in the afternoon and America, the market may experience new shocks, strong and sharp reversals, as well as new jerks up or down by 100-200 points. Novice traders should be prepared for this. As for macroeconomic statistics, indexes of business activity in the service sectors of the United States and the European Union will be published today, and they are not that important. No reactions towards such data - the markets are now absorbed by completely different news - however, they will make it clear to us how much the service sector in the EU has decreased due to the second wave of COVID-2019 and the repeated lockdown. Also, a rather important ADP report on changes in the level of employment in the private sector will be published in the United States, however, we believe that today any other news and reports, in addition to those related to elections and vote counting, will be ignored by the markets. Thus, everyone will focus on the counting of votes.

Possible scenarios for November 4:

1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair became relevant after the price settled above the descending channel. However, after rising, which novice traders could work out, thanks to our recommendations, the quotes began to collapse and now it is extremely difficult to understand when and where it will end. In general, it will be extremely difficult to receive buy signals today, and the fundamental background may continue to have a strong impact on the mood of the markets.

2) Trading for a fall at this time has ceased to be relevant, despite the fact that the pair fell by 150 points in the evening. The pair could rise when the European session opens, or it could fall. Today can be extremely volatile. We advise novice traders to wait until the markets calm down.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 4, 2020

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GBP/JPY broke nicely the mino resistance at 135.81 for run towards the short-term important resistance at 137.67. This resistance needs to be broken to confirm that red wave ii is completed with the test of 134.37 and the red wave iii being in motion for a run towards 142.71.

Only an unexpected break back below support at 134.84 will indicate that the red wave ii still being in motion. This will call for more downside pressure towards 133.04.

R3: 139.51

R2: 137.93

R1: 136.96

Pivot: 136.28

S1: 135.74

S2: 135.42

S3: 134.84

Trading recommendation:

We are long on GBP from 135.45 with our stop placed at 134.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 4, 2020

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EUR/JPY seems to have completed wave 2 with the test of 121.59 and should ideally stay above here for a break above minor resistance at 123.07 and more important for a break above

the resistance level at 124.22 that will confirm the complition of wave 2 and wave 3 being in motion. Wave 3 should rally to the minimum of 129.06 and even higher.

Only an unexpected break back below 121.59 will keep wave 2 alive and call for a move closer to 120.37 before completing wave 2.

R3: 125.03

R2: 124.23

R1: 123.10

Pivot: 122.66

S1: 122.26

S2: 121.59

S3: 120.37

Trading recommendation:

We are long on EUR from 122.25 with our stop placed at 121.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro gained 75 points on Tuesday due to below average trading volumes. Undoubtedly, this was a speculative growth in anticipation of the start of the national vote in the United States. The price has reached the target level of 1.1754 today. Getting the price to settle above 1.1754 may lead to rising towards 1.1880, but we consider this scenario as an alternative, since Biden is ahead of Trump at the moment with a score of 89 voters against 72. To win, you need to get 270 conditional voters, that is, a certain number of them depending on the victory in a specific state. We believe that Joe Biden's victory will lead to a stronger dollar. Also, the Senate is leaving the Republicans' control - 35% versus 49% of the Democrats.

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The daily chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reverses from the border of the growth area. We are waiting for the price to go under 1.1590, then it will continue to fall to 1.1495.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price did not break any of the indicator lines above, it only punctured the MACD line. For high volatility, this is a typical case for large players to control the situation. Getting the price to settle below 1.1590 will be an important sign of the euro's succeeding decline.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Forecast for November 4, 2020

AUD/USD

Yesterday, the Australian dollar picked up the speculative game of European currencies and showed an increase of 105 points overcoming even the Euro. This morning, the target level of 0.7190 was punctured, after which the price returned to the intermediate level of 0.7058. The downward trend will allow the Aussie to fall at 0.6935 and fixing under it will already mean fixing the medium-term fall of the Australian currency.

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Based on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went down. The level of 0.7120 is quite strong, the consolidation is based on October 23-28 and the consolidation under it was the first sign of the price's intention to go down further. Leaving the price below 0.7058 will automatically mean a decrease under the Kruzenshtern line. Accordingly, this will be the start of a mid-term decline in the Australian dollar, which will be set by the results of the US election.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Forecast for November 4, 2020

USD/JPY

On Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair fell by 26 points despite the growth of stock indexes. The S&P500 added 1.78%. Today in the Asian session, the Nikkei225 is up 1.52%, but the Australian S&P/ASX 200 is losing -0.54% and Chinese stock indexes are trading mixed. It is best to wait for the opening of the American session so that they can give a more objective assessment of the vote taking place in the United States.

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This morning, the price broke through the resistance of the price channel and approached the target level of 104.20 along the Kruzenshtern line. The output above it will open a second target 106.10.

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On the H4 chart, the price has turned sharply from the Kruzenshtern line and the Marlin is rushing to the overbought zone. But we need to wait for the opening of the US session for optimism in the stock market to be confirmed. Biden is also not a bad winner for stock speculators. If this result does not happen, the price will turn back to the target of 103.73.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 4. COT report. Pound awaits results of negotiations between Michel

GBP/USD 1H

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After rebounding from the support area of 1.2856 - 1.2874, the GBP/USD pair did not attempt to continue its downward movement on Tuesday, November 3. A strong upward movement began, which had a sufficient number of fundamental bases today. The price broke through the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines and reached the resistance level of 1.3054. However, take note that with a 90% probability, the current movement was the result of the US elections. Consequently, today it can continue or end, but in any case it cannot be considered a normal movement, from which trends are formed. It is impossible to predict the mood and behavior of traders now. Therefore, we recommend trading with extreme caution in any case. From a purely technical point of view, breaking the 1.3054 level will open the way to the 1.3166 resistance level.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which fully corresponds to the nature of the pair's movement on the hourly chart. There are no signs of starting a downward pullback.

COT report

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The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed that non-commercial traders were quite active in the period from October 20-26. However, their sentiment changed again, as can be seen from the green line of the first indicator in the chart. The mood of the "non-commercial" group of traders became more bullish for three consecutive weeks, but the net position decreased by 5,000 contracts over the last reporting week, so we can conclude that professional traders are again inclined to sell off the pound. However, if you look at the COT reports over the past few weeks or look at the first indicator, it becomes clear that commercial and non-commercial traders do not have a clear trading strategy right now. Perhaps this is due to an extremely unstable and complex fundamental background. The fact remains. The pound lost 90 points in recent trading days, and we believe that it will continue to fall. However, in the near future, we might receive important information about the progress of negotiations on the UK-EU trade deal, and the results of the vote for the US president will also become known. This information can change the mindset of professional traders. You need to be prepared for this.

No fundamental background for GBP/USD on Tuesday, at least from the UK. No new information on the progress of talks on the trade deal. No important information from overseas either. However, traders were still active all day, which caused the dollar to fall by 160 points. There can be only one reason - the US elections. Moreover, not some specific results or factors, but the very fact of elections. A few days before the elections, the US dollar rose in price, and it began to fall on the day of elections. Today, a similar nature of the pair's movement may persist, and focus will be on the US elections, which will come to an end and then the counting of votes will begin. In addition, Michelle Barnier and David Frost will have to speak and report on the results of their more than a week round of negotiations today. Recall that in recent days, we have repeatedly received information that "the parties have agreed" or at least "have made significant progress." However, yesterday a representative of the European Commission expressed doubt that the parties were able to reach an agreement on the issue of fishing quotas in British waters. Therefore, from our point of view, it is too early to consider if the deal has been signed. If there is indeed progress, then the pound may rise even more on this news.

We have two trading ideas for November 4:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair managed to take a big step towards the new upward trend. Therefore, if the bulls manage to keep the pair above the Senkou Span B line (1.3028), then you are advised to trade up while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3166. Take Profit in this case will be up to 110 points. If the price leaves the area below the Senkou Span B line, then buyers will need to wait for a new signal, for example, a price rebound from the Kijun-sen line.

2) Sellers have let go of the initiative. Therefore, it is recommended to open new sell orders while aiming for the 1.2855-1.2874 area if the price settles below the Kijun-sen line (1.2965). Take Profit in the first case will be up to 80 points. We remind you that today there might be highly volatile trades and sharp price reversals again.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 4. COT report. Elections coming to an end, but results will not

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair traded quite volatile, but was also calm on the hourly timeframe on Tuesday, November 3. No sharp turns, changes in direction of movement and an outright storm with swings during the day. The pair ideally, from a technical point of view, reached the support area of 1.1612-1.1624 twice, rebounded off it and started a strong upward movement. The downward trend line was also broken, so there were plenty of signals to move up. Also, during its upward movement, the quotes of the pair crossed the critical Kijun-sen line, so the likelihood of a further growth in the pair increased even more. At the same time, the situation may change to a more turbulent one today, since the US elections will come to an end and the voting results will begin to be slowly summed up.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which accurately reflected the trend of the hourly chart, where an upward movement began after rebounding from the 1.1612-1.1624 area.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair rose quite a bit during the last reporting week (October 20-26). Therefore, we can conclude that professional market participants did not make any extremely large purchases and sales of the European currency. However, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that non-commercial traders were actively closing Buy-contracts (longs) during the reporting week. In total, 12,000 of them were closed. But professional traders were in no hurry to get rid of Sell-contracts (shorts), having closed only 1,000. Thus, the net position of this group of traders decreased by 11,000 contracts at once. It is possible that the main closing of the Buy-contracts took place at the end of the reporting week, because in the following days a more tangible drop in euro's quotes began. Within its framework, the euro/dollar pair lost about 160 points. We remind you that if the net position decreases, it means that the traders' sentiment becomes more bearish. Thus, so far, our forecast is coming true. In the analysis of previous COT reports, we said that the high around the 1.2000 level could remain as the peak for the entire upward trend. The first indicator and its green line clearly show that non-commercial traders have been cutting back on long deals on the euro for two months now. And non-commercial traders are the most important group of large traders in the foreign exchange market. It is believed that it is the one responsible for driving the market.

The presidential elections began in the United States on Tuesday. To be more precise, they began a few weeks ago, and by November 3, about 100 million people had already voted in America. A record turnout over the past 100 years for sure. However, despite the fact that polling stations will close in the United States literally within a few hours, this does not mean that we will find out the name of the new US President this morning. The vote count is likely to take anywhere from a few days to several weeks, as many Americans have chosen to vote safely this year by mail. Therefore, in the coming days, and maybe weeks, the markets will again be filled with rumors as to who won the election. In addition, the indexes of business activity in the service sectors will be released today, similar data will be released overseas. The most important report of the day is the ADP report on changes in the level of employment in the US private sector, however, it is unlikely for traders to focus on it. We will miss more important news today.

We have two trading ideas for November 4:

1) The EUR/USD pair failed to overcome the 1.1612-1.1624 area and began a sharp upward movement. Therefore, buyers are advised to trade to the upside while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.1792). Take Profit in this case can be up to 80 points. Take note that sharp price reversals and changes in the mood of market participants are still possible today.

2) Bears have let go of the initiative since they missed the pair above the downward trend line. Therefore, sellers are advised to return to trading downward with targets at 1.1612-1.1624 and the support level at 1.1571, if the price settles below the Kijun-sen line (1.1693). Take Profit in this case can range from 50 to 110 points. You should also be careful with short positions as volatility can be high throughout the day.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 4. Negotiations are negotiations, and trials are scheduled. Boris Johnson defends

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 134.5058

The British pound sterling paired with the US currency on the second trading day of the week also traded higher and broke the moving average line. Thus, in the case of the pound/dollar pair, it was a matter of falling US currency quotes on the eve of the US presidential election, and not a sharp increase in demand for the British currency. News slowly continues to come to the disposal of traders, but among them, none could overshadow the importance of the US presidential election or the still ongoing negotiations on a trade deal on Brexit. By the way, no new messages were received on the second topic. Thus, yesterday (and most likely today), traders will be fully focused on any information related specifically to the elections in America.

The only thing that I would like to note now on the undying topic of "Brexit" is that representatives of the European Commission said on Monday that there was no response from the UK to the official notification of a violation of the provisions on the Northern Ireland border of the agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the EU. A month ago, the European Commission sent an official letter to London, to which, after the deadline, it did not receive a response. Thus, said the representative of the European Commission Daniel Ferrie, the European Union will now study the possibility of taking further legal measures. Ferrie also said that there are still differences in the negotiations regarding the "fish issue", and on Wednesday the chief negotiator from the European Union, Michel Barnier, will have to make a statement on the current situation in the negotiations. From our point of view, all the optimism that traders could absorb thanks to the latest "insider" messages has disappeared. We will remind that earlier there were reports that the parties reached a consensus on some controversial issues, and are also close to agreeing on the "fish issue". As you can see, European Commission officials are not aware of what is happening in London. Thus, we believe that the chances of reaching an agreement have increased recently, but not so much that we can talk about an agreement as a fait accompli. We still recommend waiting for official information from Michel Barnier or David Frost. It is also clear from the statement of the representative of the European Commission that the European Union is not going to let go of the issue of London's violation of previous agreements on the Northern Ireland border. If the "Boris Johnson bill" comes into force, it will mean that London and Brussels will enter a new phase of confrontation. How, then, the issue of a trade agreement and any relations between the Bloc and the Kingdom will be resolved is unclear. As we can see, there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding the future coexistence of the Alliance and Foggy Albion.

Meanwhile, the British, according to surveys conducted by the well-known company YouGov, are beginning to regret their decision in the 2016 independence referendum. According to the latest survey, the number of British adults who believe that the decision to leave the EU was right is only 38%, while the number of those who believe this decision was wrong is 50% of those surveyed. It is also reported that this is the largest gap between the first and second in favor of the second over the past 4 years.

At the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that his government had no choice whether or not to introduce a "lockdown". "According to the models created, if we were inactive, twice as many people could die this winter as during the first wave. In light of this information, we had no choice but to impose strict quarantine measures across the country. I think it was right to first try all the ways to contain the virus at the local level. I strongly disagree with the claims that we are not acting as quickly as our European partners," the British Prime Minister said in a speech to the House of Commons on Monday. During the regular session of the British Parliament, many members of Parliament and even the Conservative Party criticized Johnson for introducing a new "hard" quarantine in the country.

What does this all mean for the pound? First, that you should not "run ahead of the engine". If Barnier and Frost can reach a consensus, then it will be necessary to open champagne to all fans of the British pound. In this case, the pound can add to the price. However, its long-term prospects will continue to be extremely dim. We have already said that the negative effect of Brexit on the UK economy will be all the same, in any case. A trade deal can only smooth it out a little, make the destructive impact less weak. In general, the prospects for the pound/dollar pair in the near future and the long term depend more on the results of the US election. In the coming days, markets may be under the impression of the election process, and a little later – under the impression of their results, and a little later – under the impression of the actions of the losing side. As for the long-term prospects, there is reason to assume that under Joe Biden, the US dollar will be inclined to fall over the next four years, which naturally plays into the hands of the British pound. Otherwise, we believe that the pound will continue to fall in price in 2021, especially if Donald Trump wins the election.

Well, from a technical point of view, the situation is now extremely confusing. In the last three weeks, the pair have often been fixed above and below the moving average line. Given the strong fundamental background, such a "swing" may continue for some time. In the coming days, the market situation is unlikely to become calmer. Thus, it is recommended to trade very carefully.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 128 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, November 4, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2909 and 1.3165. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3000

S2 – 1.2939

S3 – 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3123

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a new round of upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open long positions with targets of 1.3123 and 1.3165 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to trade the pair down with the targets of 1.2909 and 1.2878 if the price is fixed back below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 4. The most important election in the history of the United States. Six major differences

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 21.8927

During the second trading day of the new week, the EUR/USD pair was trading higher for most of the day. In previous articles, we have already said that the fall in the pair's quotes in recent days (that is, the strengthening of the US dollar) may not be related to the elections at all. We remind you that the euro/dollar pair spent the last three months mainly between the levels of 1.1700-1.1900, that is, in the side channel. Thus, there was no "pre-election movement" all this time. Traders were just waiting for really important information that would allow them to trade the pair more reasonably. And for three months they did not wait for it. The euro could not continue to grow in any way, as it had already risen in price by 13 cents over the past six months, and there was no noticeable correction after this growth. The US dollar could not rise in price first because of the "four American crises", which we wrote about repeatedly, and later – because of the impending elections. After all, what are elections for traders and investors? This is a possible change of power. A possible change of government means possible changes in foreign and domestic policy. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether you are a trader or an investor, the environment in which you work may change in the near future. Naturally, the dollar, even after a significant fall, could not form a more or less strong correction. Thus, the election is just an important event for the participants, however, we can not say that if Biden wins (for example), the US dollar will immediately start a new fall. Yes, there is a tendency that during the rule of Republicans, the dollar tends to become more expensive, and during the rule of democratic presidents, it tends to become cheaper. However, this pattern should not be taken literally. It should be remembered that many potentially important decisions for the US economy and politics can be blocked by the lower or upper house of the US Congress, where the majority may not be with the President's party members. A vivid example of this is now the lower house of Congress, where the majority is in the hands of Democrats, who block the White House's attempts to adopt an insufficient package of economic stimulus measures. Thus, much will also depend on who will control the lower and upper houses of Congress, since the elections in America are not only for the President but also for senators and congressmen.

Meanwhile, most experts continue to believe that the current elections are the most important for the country in almost its entire history. There are a huge number of things that distinguish this election from any other. Let's consider them.

1) The current elections are taking place in a pandemic environment. Perhaps never before have elections been held in a mass epidemic. However, for the US and its current President, COVID-2019 is not just a virus that threatens the country and the people. This is an epidemic that has had the worst impact on the United States. The country has already recorded about 240 thousand deaths and more than 9 million cases of the disease. According to most Americans, the White House failed to fight the "coronavirus", and President Trump's actions were wrong. Not surprisingly, Trump's current approval ratings are low and leave him with very little chance of re-election. The most interesting thing is that Trump continues to say that the "coronavirus" is not as dangerous as doctors believe, accuses the doctors themselves of profiting from the pandemic, and also fiercely criticizes those countries that have introduced new "lockdowns".

2) The infamous televised debates. The TV debates that preceded the election were called "shameful" by the absolute majority of Western media. According to journalists, none of the candidates showed their best side, but Donald Trump especially "distinguished himself" again. During the first round of TV debates, when the current President had not yet turned off the microphone, he constantly interrupted and provoked Joe Biden, was rude and did not allow him to speak on a particular issue. This led to the fact that in the next round of televised debates, the performance rules for each candidate were tightened. Joe Biden was forced to adapt to Trump and also did not show his best side.

3) The third distinguishing feature is the age of both presidential candidates. At the moment, it is Donald Trump who is the oldest President in the history of the country. If Joe Biden is elected as the new President, he will break Trump's record, as the Democrat will turn 78 this month.

4) Scandals and "dark stories" of Trump. Perhaps never in four years has a US President had time to fall out with so many countries, international organizations, journalists, opposition forces, and so on. The list is endless. Trump fought with journalists, criticized Democrats, insulted women (in particular, the speaker of the lower house Nancy Pelosi), went into conflict with the European Union and China (as well as several other countries against which he also imposed duties), criticized Jerome Powell, and was constantly in a confrontation with Anthony Fauci. Thus, it is not surprising that after four years of his rule, he has made a huge number of enemies (or just people who do not support the idea of his re-election). Thus, we even believe that the US presidential election now looks like "Donald Trump – not Donald Trump" and not "Donald Trump – Joe Biden".

5) The fifth point just follows from the fourth. Joe Biden's ratings are unprecedented. Never before in the history of sociological research (since 1936) have the approval ratings of one of the presidential candidates been so high (more than 50%). Biden has consistently outperformed Trump by 8-13% in recent months, which gives him an extremely high chance of winning.

6) Mass riots and electoral fraud. A couple of days before the election in major US cities, companies and firms that have facades on main streets began to Board them up with plywood sheets, fearing riots and clashes between supporters of Democrats and Republicans. Biden and Trump started talking about election fraud a few months before the election itself. Well, immediately after the announcement of the results, any of the candidates are almost guaranteed to challenge the results of the vote through the Supreme Court. Donald Trump has already hedged his bets by appointing "his" man, judge Amy Barrett, to replace the prematurely deceased Ruth Ginsburg. Thus, yesterday's trading still was quite calm. The most interesting thing will be waiting for us today.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 4 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1629 and 1.1783. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal the resumption of a downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1658

S2 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1780

R3 – 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started a strong upward correction and worked out the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to open new sell orders with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1629 if there is a rebound from the moving average line. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first target of 1.1780.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com