Gold analysis for October 06, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,182.92 (swing low like support). Anyway, we can observe rejection from the level of 1,182.00 and gold is now in bullish corrective phase . According to the daily chart, we can observe healthy bearish price action, which is a sign that buying still looks very risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recenet swing points and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,197.00. According to previous price action, we got resistance level at the price of 1,204.00 (swing low like resistance).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,190.58


R2: 1,.192.56


R3: 1,195.77


Support levels


S1: 1,184.16


S2: 1,182.18


S3: 1,178.97


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since we got strong selling pressure on the market and low reaction from buyers


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EUR/NZD analysis for October 06, 2014

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Overview


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6161 in an volume below the average. We can observe that price found support at the level of 1.6000 but if it breaks the level of 1.6000 in a high volume, we may see a potetntial testing of the level of 1.5900 (swing high like support). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 1H time frame, we can observe weak demand and potential end of bullish corrective phase (abcd).


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6144


R2: 1.6179


R3: 1.6235


Support levels:


S1: 1.6032


S2: 1.5997


S3: 1.5941


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for October 6-10, 2014

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A summary of the GBP/USD pair.



  • According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between the levels of 1.6070 and 1.5950.

  • The level of 1.6069 is representing the weekly pivot point that coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.

  • Sell below the level of 1.6069 in the short term with the first target of 1.5951 (the double bottom), it might resume to 1.5853 if the trend will breaks the double bottom at the price of 1.5951.



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Observations :



  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • Major support will set at the level of 1.5853 on October 6, 2014.

  • Major resistance will set at the level of 1.6188 on October 6, 2014.

  • We expect a new range up to 245 pips this week.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for October 6-10, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD.


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A general review and summary of the EUR/USD pair.



  • According to the previous information, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2580 and 1.2500. Thus, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point will set at the level of 1.2576. Right now, the current price is around the level of 1.2551. Moreover, the weekly point has already formed a psychological level at this area. And the weekly resistance 1 is going to set at the level of 1.2653. Therefore, sell at the level of 1.2650 (the weekly resistance 1) with the first target at the 1.2580 price (the level of 1.2580 is representing the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart) , then it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.2500 to test the double bottom in H1 chart. Notwithstanding, if the trend fails to close below the level of 1.2650, then the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.2685.



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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 5 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6168


R2: 1.6153


R1: 1.6140


Current spot: 1.6113


S1: 1.6100


S2: 1.6078


S3: 1.6063


Technical summary:


With a firm back test of the broken base-channel resistance-line, which is now acting as support, we should again look for a new strong rally higher towards 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6836 and higher. In the short term, we would like to see minor resistance at 1.6214 broken as indication, that a firm bottom is in place for a new impulsive rally higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long EUR from 1.6000 and will move our stop to break even. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy close to 1.6080 or upon a break above 1.6214 with the same stop at 1.6000


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 6, 2014

General overview for 06/10/2014 11:30 CET

This market still looks like it is making another false breakout to the upside in the mid-term basis but the lower time frame wave development hasn't really confirmed this view. There are too many possibilities to anticipate with the decent degree of probability what the next market move will be. The longer-term trend is still bullish and the current market behavior is very much similar to some kind of a very complex and time-consuming corrective cycle, possibly in wave 2 of a larger time frame degree.

Nevertheless, to intraday analysis indicates a possible bottom in this market, labeled as wave B, but as long as the intraday resistance at the level of 137.93 is not broken, the bullish impulsive wave progression remains in question. Support/Resistance:

136.86 - Intraday Support | Wave B Low|

137.68 - Weekly Pivot

137.93 - Intraday Resistance

138.45 - WR1

138.97 - 139.15 - Demand Breakthrough Zone Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should pay attention to the mentioned key level as any breakout higher would provide a great opportunity for a buy side trade with SL below the level of 136.85.


eurjpy_h1.jpg The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 5 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.87


R2: 137.64


R1: 137.44


Current spot: 137.18


S1: 137.04


S2: 136.86


S3: 136.60


Technical summary:


We still regard the rally of the 135.80 low as an impulsive rally and more upside should be seen in the longer term towards strong resistance at 143.79. If this impulsive scenario is to stay valid, we should soon see upside acceleration and the first clue will be a break above minor resistance at 137.87 for a rally back to 139.13 towards 141.22 on the way higher to 143.79. That said, we have to be aware of the risk of the rally to 141.22 only being an X-wave and if this is the case, then we will see support at 135.80 be broken soon for a continuation lower towards at least 133.52 and possibly even 125.98, but for this scenario to become the preferred count a break below 135.80 is needed.


Trading recommendation:


We are long EUR from 137.75 with stop at 136.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then put a break above 137.87 with a stop at 136.85


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold wave analysis for October 6, 2014

Gold price has pushed towards our short-term target of $1,180 as expected and bounced after testing this important low from June 2013. Gold price remains in a fully bearish trend and we continue to expect we will see new lower lows towards $1,000.


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Blue line= support


Green line= price channel


Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and still inside the downward sloping channel. After breaking the short-term support at $1,204 Gold price has pushed lower towards $1,180 which was our short-term target. A bounce from this level was expected as this price area is the important low made in June 2013.


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Short-term trend changes would take place only if Gold price breaks above $1,225. Resistance is found at $1,197 and at $1,220. I do not expect Gold price to be able to push again above $1,210 and I believe it is just back testing the break out area at $1,204. I expect selling pressures to resume and finally push Gold price below $1,180. 1st short-term target is found at $1,170 and then at $1,120.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 06, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has pulled back to the 1.5470 region after printing lows at 1.5370 last week. The pair is stalling at resistance now, and should continue falling to fresh lows at 1.5200 levels in the coming trading sessions. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally from 1.4975 to 1.5550 levels is also around 1.5200 levels. Furthermore , the past resistance turned support is also seen around the same region. Looking into all the above facts, it is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains at 1.5560 at least. A more conservative trading approach could be to look for a drop to 1.5200 and turn bullish. Major support is seen at 1.4975 and bulls should remain in control till prices stay above it.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop above 1.5560, target 1.5200.


Good luck!


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Short-term forecast and intraday recommendation on USD/CAD for October 06, 2014

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The pair is just 9 pips away from the yearly high at 1.1279. Fresh buying will emerge above 1.1279 for an upside target at 1.1400 within strong resistance at 1.1320 levels. This pair is supported by a fall in crude oil prices. The pair has support at 1.0998, below this only, we recommend selling. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.1289 levels. In case if the pair closes above 1.1289 (monthly) in the longer term it can touch 1.1400 and 1.1646 (200MEma). If the pair closes above the upper end of the ascending symmetric triangle, we can expect 1.1646 in the long term. On a weekly basis, the pair will face selling pressure below 1.1220 levels. On a positional view sellers can start selling below 1.1220 for a downside target at 1.1155 and 1.1135 levels.


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For an intraday view, the safe buying will be triggered only above 1.1270 and strong momentum, only above 1.1280 for an upside target at 1.1315. For an hourly perspective the pair has support at 1.1244 and 1.1220. Safe selling will be triggered below 1.1210 for a downside target at 1.1186 and 1.1177 levels. The panic will be triggered below 1.1165 towards 1.1129 and the base support of the ascending symmetric triangle.


Trade-


Buy above 1.1270, strong momentum is above 1.1280, targets are 1.12 and 1.1315.


Sell below 1.1210, targets are 1.1186, 1.1177, and 1.1165.


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Short-term forecast and intraday recommendation on USD/CHF for October 06, 2014

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The pair successfully breached the 2-year descending trend line in the monthly chart. The pair has been enjoying its uptrend for 3 consecutive months. On the upper side, the pair has resistance at 0.9716, above this, parallel resistances are 0.9751 (July 2013 high), 0.9838 (May 2013 high), 0.9898 (August 2012 high), and 0.9972 (July 2012 high). In case the pair closes above 0.96 on a monthly basis, the pair will aim at 1.0000 and 1.1020 100MSma levels. The pair has monthly support at 0.9456 and 0.9180 levels. As of now, today, the pair made a high at 0.9688, but was unable to sustain above the previous week's high at 0.9684 levels.


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We recommend fresh buying above 0.9688 for an upside target at 0.9750 and 0.9790 levels. On the down side, the pair has support at 0.9660. For the bears we recommend safe selling only below 0.9660 for a downside target at 0.9630, 0.9610 and 0.96. For an intraday view, the pair has support at 0.9615, below this, 0.9580 and 0.9558 will act as strong support levels. If the pair falls below 0.9555, it will extend its fall to 0.9518 levels.


Trade-


Selling below 0.9660, target: 0.9630, 0.9615 and 0.9600.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 06, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Factory Orders m/m, Retail PMI, Sentix Investor Confidence. The US will not release economic data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2573.

Strong Resistance:1.2565.

Original Resistance: 1.2553.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2541.

Target Inner Area: 1.2511.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2481.

Original Support: 1.2469.

Strong Support: 1.2457.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2449.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official Analyst of InstaForex Group


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Yahoo Messenger & Skype: Arief.ifx_jakarta


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 06, 2014

Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 110.18.

Resistance. 2: 109.97.

Resistance. 1: 109.75.

Support. 1: 109.49.

Support. 2: 109.28.

Support. 3: 109.06.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official Analyst of InstaForex Group


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Yahoo Messenger & Skype: Arief.ifx_jakarta


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Short-term forecast and intraday recommendation on GBP/USD for October 06, 2014

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The cable drifted below 50MSma and the 50.0 fib level in the monthly chart. The cable has support at 1.5894, 1.5855 (November 2013 low) and 1.5750-1.5720 (August 2013 high), and 61.8 the fib level. The cable is trading at 1.5971, an 11-month low, against the US dollar. It is exactly trading at the upper end of the descending rectangle which turned to support from resistance. In case if the cable closes below the 3-year support trend line and 50MSma, we can expect 150 to 200 pips down. On the upside, 1.6015, 1.6163 and 1.6235 will act as strong monthly resistance levels. 1.6015 is acting as weekly resistance level. On the down side, 1.5914 and 1.59 will act as weekly support levels.


Support 1.5950, 1.5900, 1.5850


Resistance 1.6015, 1.6163, 1.6235


Unless the cable closes above 1.6015, the selling will mint the money in the near term. The short-term trend is still looking favorable for bears until closing below 1.6235 levels. For the rest of the year 2014, until the pair closes below 1.6524, we recommend selling on every rise for a downside target at 1.5875, 1.5750 and 1.55 levels, may be even lower 1.5385. This view is valid with sl 1.6525 on a daily closing basis.


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 34hrsma. Now, as of today, opening a new week, the cable held the previous week's low at 1.5952 levels. We are recommending fresh selling opportunity only below 1.5950 levels for a downside target at 1.5875 levels. In Asia's session the cable is trading at 1.5957. On the higher side, the resistance levels are at 1.6029 (12hour high) and 1.6063 (12ema). We recommend fresh buying only above 1.6065.


Trade-


Selling only below 1.5950, target: 1.5875 and 1.5850.


Buying only above 1.6065, target: 1.6090 and 1.6125.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Short-term forecast and intraday recommendation on EUR/USD for October 06, 2014

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The stronger US data pushed the Euro towards 1.25 levels against the US dollar. Now, as of today, the pair is holding parallel support at September 2012 lows. The pair has strong support at 1.2450, the 80.0 fib level in the monthly chart. In case if the pair breaks below the 80.0 fib level at 1.2450, the pair will extend its fall towards 1.2220. As per the long-term view, in case if the pair closes below 1.22 (the bottom of the triangle in the monthly chart), the pair can fall towards 1.2135, 1.20 and 1.1875. The pair has monthly resistance at 1.2760 levels (200Mema). Until the pair closes below 200Mema, the bears have an upper hand.


Support 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2220


Resistance 1.2660, 1.2715, 1.2760


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 34hrsma. Selling below 1.25 can mint money in today's session. In case if the pair breaks below 1.25, it will fall towards 1.2466 and 1.2450 levels. On the higher side, the resistance levels are at 1.2520 (4hour high), 1.2550 (8hour high) and 1.2567 35DEMA levels.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for October 06, 2014

The USDX had a strong momentum within the bullish trend above the level of 85.90, the H4 chart. Now this instrument is attempting to consolidate above the 86.70 level and then go up to the resistance level of 87.00. However, caution should be exercised, because the USDX could make a pullback at current levels.


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H4 chart's resistance levels: 86.70 – 87.00


H4chart's support levels: 85.85 – 85.06


In the H1 chart, the USDX did a bullish consolidation above the support level of 86.17, so far, this instrument is forming a higher high pattern below the resistance level of 86.72. The USDX would have to make a breakout at that level for rise to the resistance level of 87.00, which would be a record high that the USDX has not touched for several months. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 86.72– 87.00


H1 chart's support levels: 86.17 – 85.95


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 86.73 take profit is at 87.00, and stop loss is at 86.44.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 06, 2014

The GBP/USD continues to weaken in the H4 chart, so this pair is trying to consolidate below the resistance level of 1.6004, so it is very likely that the GBP/USD also finds support at the 1.5900 level, where one bearish trend line is. This decline was driven by the positive indicators of employment in the United States, published last Friday.


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H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.6004 - 1.6051


H4 chart's support levels: 1.5811 - 1.698


On the H1 chart, we can clearly see the strength of the current bearish trend for GBP/USD as this pair is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 1.5980. Now, it is likely that the GBP/USD will try to make a correction of its current trend, due to the steep fall that this pair had last Friday. The next target for the GBP/USD on the downside is the support level of 1.5925. The MACD indicator is oversold.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5980 – 1.6031


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5925 – 1.5871


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5925, take profit is at 1.5871, and stop loss is at 1.5980.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com