Gold intraday analysis for April 04 , 2016

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I found strong signs of strength in the background and a potential professional accumulation phase. According to the 30M time frame, I found a massive volume spike (selling climax) in the background fallowed by a reversal up-thrust bar (demand overcame supply). Today we saw successful testing of supply in a low-average volume, which is a strong sign for me that professional money is interested in an upward price. Watch for buying opportunities. First take profit level is set at the price of $1,232.80.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,223.25

R2: 1,224.00

R3: 1,225.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,220.00

S2: 1,219.00

S3: 1,217.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunties on the dips.

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Technical analysis of NZD/CAD for April 04, 2016

NZD/CAD was moving within the descending channel up until the 28th of February when price broke below the channel. Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point shows support and resistance levels and price action around them.

Clearly the 38.2% Fibs support level - S2 (0.8840) has been broken opening doors for further decline. However, price formed a triple bottom near 0.8800 level and corrected upwards where it tested the 200 Moving Average and rejected the 61.8% Fibs resistance - R1 (0.9050). In addition, price broke below an upward trend line and currently NZD/CAD is trading below the 200 MA.

Everything is pointing to the bearish scenario where price is likely to go lower to test next Fib support. Consider selling NZD/CAD today either on small pullbacks or on the S1 (0.8945) breakout. The nearest target is the 23.6% Fibs support area that is S3 (0.8515). Stop loss should be just above R1 (0.9050)

Support: 0.8945, 0.8840, 0.8715

Resistance: 0.9050

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EUR/NZD analysis for April 04, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6645 in a high volume. EUR/NZD is trading in a defined upward trend channel. Watch for buying opportunities on dips inside the channel. First, the take profit level is set at the price of 1.6645. I found absorption of selling climax in the background, which is a sign that selling EUR/NZD looks very risky.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6610

R2: 1.6665

R3: 1.6770

Support levels:

S1: 1.6420

S2: 1.6360

S3: 1.6265

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

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Global macro overview for 04/04/2016

Global macro overview for 04/04/2016:

Data from the US job market surprised market participants as it turned out to be better than expected. The Non-Farm Employment Change was at the level of 215K vs. 205K expected. The US average hourly earnings increased to 0.3% from 0.2% a month ago. A slight disappointment was caused by the unemployment rate that climbed slightly to 5.% from 4.9% a month ago, driven up by a larger number of people looking for work. In January, the jobless rate declined below 5% for the first time since 2008 and remained there for the first two months of the year. In conclusion, it was a very solid report, full of good data that the Fed's officials will definitely take into account during the next meeting.

Now let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. Bulls seem to be still in control after they made another higher high. There is no real sign of the bullish trend reveal in this time frame. Nevertheless, if the NFP low at the level of 1.1340 is violated and no immediate buy back will follow, than bears might push the price lower towards the next support at the level of 1.1220.

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Global macro overview for 04/04/2016

Global macro overview for 04/04/2016:

Oil has been in decline once again overnight as on Friday, traders continue responding to reports that Saudi Arabia may not be willing to take part in the price freeze without all other major producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC. Moreover, the Wednesday inventories data was much worse than expected. The market participants anticipated 3.1M of stockpiles, a small raise from 2.3M last week. The figures released were at the level of 9.4M oil barrels. In conclusion, the US is running out of the inventory space to storage oil, and Iran is still hesitating to freeze the production after the sanctions have been removed. In that case, there is still room for lower prices in oil market.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of crude oil in the daily time frame. We can clearly see the oil fell out from the golden rising channel and currently it is trading below the 21DMA. It is hard to say whether bears are now fully in control over this market, but if support at the level of 34.94 is violated with a daily candle close below it, then the chances for a sell-off are high.

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Gold analysis for April 04 , 2016

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Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,208.30 Supply trend line at the price of $1,245.00 was held successfully. According to the daily time frame, I found trading range between the price of $1,245.00 (resistance) and the price of $1,208.00 (support). Watch for a successful breakout of $1,208.00 to confirm further downward movement and then try to sell on the rallies. First downward take profit level is set at the price of $1,193.60. Second take profit level is set at the price of $1,177.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,223.25

R2: 1,224.00

R3: 1,225.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,220.00

S2: 1,219.00

S3: 1,217.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 4, 2016

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Overview:

  • The market opened below the weekly pivot point. It continued moving downwards from the level of 1.4240 to the bottom around 1.4193. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.4268 followed by 1.4329, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.4079. The GBP/USD pair broke support, which turned into strong resistance at 1.4268 last week. The pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the resistance that is expected to act as major resistance today. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and is not showing any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.4268 and 1.4190, so we expect a range of 78 pips in coming days. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 1.4268 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.4119. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.4119, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 1.4079 in order to test the weekly support 1. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.4268 today.

The weekly technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair:

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 4, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair will continue falling from the level of 1.1400 in the long term. It should be noted that the level of 1.1376 represents a minor resistance on the H1 chart. On the other hand, support is established at the level of 1.1326 which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the lowest level of 1.1376. So, sell below the level of 1.1376 - 1.1376 with the first target at 1.1326 in order to test the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.1220. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.1220 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. However, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1400, then the market will show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.1400 with the targets at 1.1437 and further to 1.1520.

Intraday technical levels:

Date:4/04/2016

Pair:EUR/USD

  • R3: 1.1786
  • R2: 1.1611
  • R1: 1.1501
  • PP: 1.1326
  • S1: 1.1216
  • S2: 1.1041
  • S3: 1.0931
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Technical analysis of USDX for April 4, 2016

The Dollar index has been moving sideways for the last two sessions and has not produced any change on the bearish trend. Our weekly target of 93 is still open as long as price is below 96.40.

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Red line - resistance

Blue area - support zone

Price remains below the Kumo and the resistance trend line on the 4 hour chart. Trend remains bearish but price is stuck around the support zone of 94.50-94.60. A break below 94.40 will lead to an increase in the selling pressures and a push of price towards 93.

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Blue lines - sideways channel

The weekly chart remains bearish as price is inside the Kumo in a technical downtrend. Price is heading towards the lower Kumo boundary where the lower channel boundary is found. So the 93 area is of great importance for the medium-term trend. Resistance is important at 96. So a break above it on a weekly closing level will be a bullish sign. Stochastic oscillator is oversold on the week so bears should be very cautious.

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 4, 2016

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel and it is heading towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,045. So $1,190-$1,200 is our short-term target area. Gold has entered a corrective phase that is expected to end around $1,150-$1,100 and it will have the form of a three-wave decline.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is below the 4 hour cloud and is making lower lows and lower highs. The trend remains bearish. Support is at the $1,190-$1,200 area where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement. This is the first target area of this downward move. Resistance is at $1,240-50.

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The overbought weekly stochastic has been warning bulls for several weeks now to be cautious and protect long positions. The weak dollar as well has not produced a bounce for Gold and this is another worrying sign for Gold bulls. I'm very confident that the entire rise from $1,045 is over, however, even if we see new highs near $1,300, the optimum level to open longs in Gold will be around $1,100-$1,150.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 4, 2016

General overview for 04/04/2016:

The impulsive wave progression to the upside has been completed and now the market is in the corrective cycle. Three waves of this corrective cycle are now almost completed with the projected targets at the level of 126.44 and 126.03 in case of extension in wave c purple. Please note that the alternative count still points out more complex and time consuming corrective cycle, labeled as (a) (b) (c) blue. Moreover, any violation of the level of 124.66 will invalidate the bullish impulsive count.

Support/Resistance:

124.66 - Blue Impulsive Cycle Invalidation Level

125.41 - WS2

126.03 - Projected Target For Wave c

126.24 - WS1

126.44 - Projected Target For Wave c

126.95 - Intraday Resistance

127.22 - Weekly Pivot

128.05 - WR1

128.21 - Local High

Trading recommendations:

Traders should refrain from trading and wait for another trading setup to occur .

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 4, 2016

General overview for 04/04/2016:

A new local high has been made at the level of 1.3146, but the bulls weren't strong enough to clearly break out above the neutral zone. Currently, the market trades inside of the neutral zone between the levels of 1.3017 - 1.3148. Nevertheless, the outlook is bullish and only a sustained break out above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3148 would confirm the bottom for wave (c) of wave Z brown is in place.

Support/Resistance:

1.2814 - WS1

1.2850 - Swing Low

1.3007 - Intraday Support

1.3048 - Weekly Pivot

1.3146 - WR1

1.3241 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should place buy stop orders at the level of 1.3148 with SL below the level of 1.3000 and TP open for now. Any big, impulsive, long hourly candle that breaks out above the intraday resistance might suggest the bulls are back in control and we will try to join them.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 04, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair has failed to post a sustained rebound following its decline below the 112.00 level last Friday. Last Friday US stocks rose, boosted by a strong March jobs report and other solid economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 17792, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 2072, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.9% to 4914. Health-care and consumer-staples shares were leading performers, while energy shares fell along with oil prices.

The US government reported that non-farm payrolls increased 215,000 in March (vs +205,000 expected, +245,000 in February), and average hourly earnings of private-sector workers were up 7 cents to $25.43 (vs -2 cents in February). Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 51.8 in March (vs 51.0 expected) from 49.5 in February, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was up to 91.0 in March (vs 90.5 expected) from 90.0 in February.

Nymex crude oil plunged 4.0% to $36.79 a barrel, gold declined 0.8% to $1,222 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 1.793% from 1.784% in the previous session.

The US dollar edged lower against the euro in a session made volatile by the jobs report. EUR/USD was up 0.1% to 1.1386 (day-high at 1.1437, day-low at 1.1332).

On the other hand, GBP/USD dropped 1.0% to 1.4220. The Markit/CIPS U.K. Manufacturing PMI was at 51.0 in March (vs 51.2 expected, 50.8 in February). And the TNS online poll on "Brexit" showed that the "In" and "Out" camps were neck-to-neck with each side getting a support of 35%.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar weakened further along with plunging oil prices, with USD/CAD gaining 5 points to 1.3009 (day-high at 1.3146).

Currently, USD/JPY remains capped by the descending 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the intraday relative strength index stays below the neutrality level of 50 lacking upward momentum. The intraday outlook continues to be bearish and the first downside target at 111.20 is within reach. Support below that level would be found at 111.00.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.20. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 111.00. The pivot point stands at 112.00. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.45 and the second target at 112.65.

Resistance levels: 112.45, 112.65, 113.05

Support levels: 111.20, 111.00, 110.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 04, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as key resistance is at 0.9625. After the failure to break above the nearest resistance at 0.9625, the pair is now under pressure, and is expected to challenge its next support level at 0.9555. The sequence of lower highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a negative outlook. In addition, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum, calling for caution. In these perspectives, as long as 0.9625 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias. Our next down targets are set at 0.9555 and 0.9525 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9525. The pivot point stands at 0.9625. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9650 and the second target at 0.9675.

Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9675, 0.9715

Support levels: 0.9555, 0.9525 , 0.9465

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 04, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range as it is under pressure. Technically, the pair remains under pressure below its key resistance at 0.6925, and seems likely to test its next support at 0.6835. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, which should confirm a bearish reversal. Furthermore, the relative strength index is badly directed, calling for a new pullback. To sum up, as long as 0.6925 is not surpassed, look for further downsides to 0.6835 and 0.6780 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6835. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6780. The pivot point stands at 0.6925. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6965 and the second target at 0.7030.

Resistance levels: 0.6965, 0.7030, 0.7065

Support levels: 0.6835, 0.6780, 0.6725

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 04, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair is under pressure. The pair is turning down following a double top pattern, and is expected to post further decline. Meanwhile, the 20-period moving average stays below the 50-period one and the relative strength index is badly directed. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 126.95. A break below this level would open way to further weakness toward 157.35.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 158. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 157.35. The pivot point stands at 159.55. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 160.05 and the second target at 160.60.

Resistance levels: 160, 160.60, 161.05

Support levels: 158, 157, 157.35

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 4 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We have seen the expected break above minor resistance at 1.6508 indicating that a low was seen at 1.6223. Now we only need a break above resistance at 1.6725 to confirm that wave [iii] of iii is developing. This is normally the strongest of the waves, becoming almost vertical with only small or sub-normal corrections.

In the short term, we are looking for support near 1.6430 and again at 1.6360.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.6250 with stop placed at 1.6350. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6430 or upon a break above 1.6653 and use the same stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 4 - 2016

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Wave summary:

The corrective rally in wave iv seems to have ended prematurely at 128.22. The break below minor support at 126.94 does suggest this is indeed the case and that the final decline in wave v lower to 117.38 is now developing.

Short term minor resistance is now found at 127.42, which ideally will protect the upside for downside acceleration. However, as we are at the very early start of wave v lower, the first reaction often retraces most of the first wave, which could mean a move closer to 128.22, but not above.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our take profit and our stop at 126.90 has been hit. We will be looking for a selling opportunity at 127.35 with stop placed at 128.25.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 04, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as the PPI m/m, Unemployment Rate, Sentix Investor Confidence, Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release economic data too such as the Labor Market Conditions Index m/m, Factory Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1450.

Strong Resistance: 1.1443.

Original Resistance: 1.1432.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1421.

Target Inner Area: 1.1395.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1368.

Original Support: 1.1357.

Strong Support: 1.1346.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1339.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 04, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Base y/y and the US will release some economic data such as the Labor Market Conditions Index m/m and Factory Orders m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 111.99.

Resistance. 2: 111.77.

Resistance. 1: 111.56.

Support. 1: 111.29.

Support. 2: 111.07.

Support. 3: 110.85.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 4, 2016

EUR/USD: This pair moved upwards by roughly 300 pips last week, but the bulls met a strong opposition around the resistance line at 1.1400. Owing to the bullish signal given by the indicators on the 4-hour chart, the bulls might be able to push the price beyond the resistance line, but a persistent northward journey should not be expected. There is a possibility of a large pullback this week.

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USD/CHF: This pair went in an opposite direction to EUR/USD. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart: The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. Further southward movement is possible, though there could also be a rally this week.

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GBP/USD: From March 28 – 30, the Cable rose and tested the distribution territory at 1.4450. The bulls were unable to push the price beyond that territory and this resulted in a bearish correction of 250 pips, as the price closed at 1.4228 last Friday. While further bearish correction is not ruled out, a rally is a great possibility, because the outlook on GBP is bright for the month of April 2016. This strength would be visible on most GBP pairs.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument went downwards last week, closing below the supply level at 112.00. The next targets are around the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00, which would be attained this week. Only a situation in which the yen is very weak can cause a rally here. After all, it is anticipated that JPY pairs would become weak around the end of April 2015.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair went upwards last week, reaching the supply zone at 128.00. The bulls were unable to push the price beyond that supply level and that caused a shallow correction we are currently looking at. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is possible that another leg of the bullish journey would begin, which would cause a break above that supply level at 128.00.

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