BITCOIN Analysis for May 9, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the momentum above $6,000 which has been tested with some correctional declines. One thing that is obvious from yesterday's events is that in this market cycle, Bitcoin appears to be immune to bad news. The bulls carried on trading and BTC surged above the psychological level of $6,000.

When the news broke that Binance had been hacked, thus hurting the crypto market with a trade volume of $40 million, Bitcoin remained unaffected. Later, it sank about 3 percent or so below $5,800, but immediately started to recover and rebounded to $6,000 over the next few hours. The aftermath the cyberattack on Binance has left the industry confounded. On the one hand, the price of Bitcoin remains steady. On the other hand, according to reports, no user accounts were affected to derive the market sentiment away.

The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA after the recent retracement from $6,200. As the price holds above $6,000 with a daily close, further upward pressure with a target towards $6,300 is expected in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 5,850, 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,300, 6,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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GBP/USD: plan for the American session on May 9. Divergence can help buyers return to the market

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bulls are working out the divergence on the MACD indicator in the area of the morning support level of 1.2980, and while the trade is conducted above this range, we can expect the end of the bearish trend. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day is to return to the resistance of 1.3028. Only then can we expect an upward correction in the area of the maximum of 1.3074 and 1.3125, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a repeated test of a minimum of 1.2980, it may breakdown and the continuation of the fall of the pound. In this scenario, the best way to return to long positions is to rebound from the levels of 1.2934 and 1.2905.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears will try to break below the support of 1.2980, which will lead to a new wave of short positions in the trend with access to the lows of 1.2934 and 1.2905, where I recommend fixing the profits. Also, a good signal to sell in the second half of the day will be an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.3028, but I recommend to open short positions immediately on the rebound only after updating the maximum of 1.3074.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bearish advantage.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the American session on May 9. A long pause in the channel will lead to a sharp movement

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The situation has not changed in the absence of important fundamental statistics for the eurozone. In the afternoon, a number of reports on the US economy are expected, which may lead to the exit of EUR/USD from the channel. The main goal remains the range of 1.1214, the consolidation of which will lead EUR/USD to the area of last week's maximum to 1.1260 and maintain the upward potential with the test levels of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the event of a further decline in the euro, it is best to return to long positions after correction down from support at 1.1170, provided that a false breakdown is formed, or to rebound from a larger area of 1.1138.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears hold the pair under the resistance of 1.1214. While trading is below this level, the pressure on the euro will remain, which can lead to a decrease and consolidation under the support level of 1.1170, the breakdown of which will push EUR/USD to the minimum area of 1.138 and 1.112, where I recommend fixing the profit. With the growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1214 in the second half of the day, against the background of good statistics for the US, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1260, but the intermediate resistance may be the level of 1.1240.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which continues to indicate the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 09, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. The major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 09, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.2988. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.2865 to a top around 1.3184 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.2988. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3060 followed by 1.3184, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3184 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2988 and 1.3184; so we expect a range of 196 pips in coming days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3060, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3184) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2988 with the first target at 1.3060 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3184. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3184 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2988, a further decline to 1.2865 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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USDCAD: Canadian dollar and oil may continue to decline

The Canadian dollar made several attempts to strengthen against the US dollar yesterday but eventually gave up. A good report on the bookmarks of new homes in Canada, which grew sharply, provided only temporary support.

According to data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, the number of bookmarks of new homes in April 2019 increased compared to the same period last year to 235,460 homes. The March data was revised to 191,981. Economists had expected the number of bookmarks to be 195,500 in April.

Most of the growth was due to faster construction of apartment buildings such as condominiums. Thus, the bookmarks of apartment buildings increased by 29.6%, to 175,732, and single-family homes by 6%, to 44,655. The moving average for six months rose to 206,103 from 202,420 in March.

As for the technical picture of the USDCAD pair, further growth is likely to continue after the breakthrough of the major resistance of 1.3495, to which the bulls are gradually selected from the beginning of this month. The breakdown of 1.3495 will give the pair a new upward momentum, which will lead to the renewal of highs in the area of 1.3540 and 1.3610. Bullish momentum can be formed today in the second half of the day when a number of reports on the American economy will be released. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, it is likely that the pressure on the USDCAD pair will return, which will collapse the trading instrument in the region of the lower border of the side channel of 1.3410.

Oil quotes yesterday rose only slightly after data indicating that commercial US oil reserves declined, contrary to analysts' forecasts, which maintains the further potential development of the downward trend.

According to a report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, a week from April 27 to May 3, oil reserves fell by 4 million barrels to 466.6 million barrels, while analysts expected reserves to grow only by 200,000 barrels.

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A decrease was also noted in gasoline stocks. Thus, stocks unexpectedly fell by 596,000 barrels, to 226.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected reserves to decline by 1.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks also fell by 159,000 barrels to 125.6 million barrels, compared with analysts, who expected a reduction in reserves of 1.3 million barrels.

The utilization of refining capacity decreased by 0.3 percentage points, to 88.9%.

As for the technical picture of oil, a triangle is expected to break through. Going beyond $62 a barrel for WTI mark will lead to a new wave of growth in the area of $62.85 and $63.85. When the lower boundary of the triangle breaks out at 61.20, the pressure on oil will continue, leading to a renewal of the minimum of 60.35 and 58.15.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for AUD/USD on May 9

The unfinished wave of the H4 scale on the Aussie chart is downward, dated January 31. The last wave of the short-term wave that is relevant today is starting from April 17, completing the larger model. In its structure on May 7, a correctional part (B) was formed.

Forecast:

The decline that began in 3 days is preparing the basis for the final price breakthrough. Today, the general flat mood is expected. A decline is likely in the morning. The beginning of the price rise is worth the wait either at the end of the day or tomorrow.

Recommendations:

Today, sales are possible in the form of "scalping" before the first reversal signals appear. Next, the supporters of the intraday can try buying a pair with the potential in the middle session move. For longer trades, it is recommended to refrain from trading and look for sell signals at the end of the upcoming rollback.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7020 / 0.7050

Support zones:

- 0.6960 / 0.6930

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the areas most likely to turn. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author, the formed background with a solid background, and the expected movements are dotted.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for USD/JPY on May 9

The last wave of the yen major is rising, started on March 25th. It completes a more massive bullish wave model. The wave is nearing completion of the middle part of the structure (B). The price is approaching the upper limit of the wide area of a potential reversal of the scale of at least W1, but there are no signals of the rate change on the chart yet.

Forecast:

In the first half of the day, a downward vector of movement is expected today. Towards the end of the day, in the area of settlement support, a turn and the beginning of a counter upward movement are likely. A breakthrough of the lower limit of support when changing course is not excluded! The potential of the upcoming price growth is estimated at least in 3 figures.

Recommendations:

Selling a pair today is worth only in short-term transactions for a few points. After the appearance of reversal signals on your vehicle, it is recommended to pay attention to the purchase of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 110.60 / 110.90

Support zones:

- 109.80 / 109.50

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on May 9

When analyzing the wave structure of the unfinished downward wave of the short-term scale from March 13, it is clear that the first 2 parts (A + B) are fully formed. Since May 3, the final part (C) develops.

Forecast:

Before the beginning of the active movement of the course of the pair downwards, the reversal structure of a smaller scale should be completely completed. Today, it is expected to complete the price reduction and the beginning of a counter move.

Recommendations:

Today, sales are possible but their potential is limited by settlement support. Once the price reaches this section of the chart, intraday supporters can start tracking buy signals. Proponents of longer trades are advised to refrain from trading and wait for the recovery to complete.

Resistance zone:

- 1.3070/1.3100

Support zone:

- 1.2970/1.2940

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. May 9. Trading system "Regression Channels". Theresa May is not going to resign

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -78.5633

On Wednesday, May 8, the British pound continues to move downwards despite the lack of important macroeconomic reports from the UK or the US, as well as the lack of important news on Brexit. As we have already said, this is a test by traders of unconfirmed information that laborers and conservatives will be able to agree on the Brexit agreement. The pound has been growing regularly in the last year on rumors, and then collapses on the harsh reality. Now, the same situation. There are no prerequisites to expect that the parties will be able to agree. It was also reported that, despite the obvious displeasure with the actions of May within her own party, the Prime Minister will retain his post until at least the autumn of 2019. Thus, there is still a chance for Theresa May to bring Brexit to its logical end. It is difficult to say whether this is good news for the pound or bad. From our point of view, the new Prime Minister would have more chances to reach an agreement in the triangle "Parliament – Prime Minister – European Union". However, Theresa May does not want to surrender, and neither does she admit her defeat. Thus, the UK remains mired in a political crisis, and the pound remains prone to fall against the US currency.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3000

S2 – 1.2939

S3 – 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3123

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD has overcome the moving. Thus, the trend for the instrument has changed to a downtrend and short positions with the targets at 1.3000 and 1.2939 have become relevant, the first of which has already been worked out. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi to the top will indicate the corrective cycle.

Buy-positions are recommended to be considered only after the pair is reversed above the moving with the target at 1.3123.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD. May 9. Trading system "Regression Channels". The market is completely calm

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 49.1622

The EUR/USD pair has been standing in one place for the last few days. Volatility has again decreased to minimum values. This is partly due to the small number of macroeconomic events, partly – the reluctance of traders to sell the euro at the current rather low price values. As we have said many times, there are no good reasons to strengthen the euro. Today will be the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell. This potentially means new and important information, but it will depend on his rhetoric and the topics he touches upon. Perhaps we will not talk about monetary policy. In this case, low volatility and lack of trend are likely to persist today. Also, several macroeconomic reports will be published in the States, but all of them are of secondary importance and are unlikely to have an impact on trading. Thus, in the current situation, we continue to recommend waiting for the completion of the current flat. It will be possible to identify the end of the flat by the output of the pair from the channel of 1.1169 – 1.1230. Both linear regression channels clearly indicate a downward trend in the medium and long term.

The next support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is now in a frank flat. Therefore, we recommend resuming trading on the pair after exiting the side channel. Purchases – above the level of 1.1230, and sales – below the level of 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Bitcoin. Bitcoin is approaching the level of 6400 USD

The Binance hack was quickly forgotten, after which the growth of Bitcoin resumed, which helped to overcome several important levels of resistance, which I paid attention to yesterday, and get close to a new maximum in the area of 6360.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Buyers will push Bitcoin around the highs of 6360 and 6520, where I recommend fixing the profits since after updating these resistances, a strong bearish divergence can be formed on the MACD indicator. In the scenario of reducing the cryptocurrency, you can return to purchases on the support test of 6070 or a rebound from the minimum of 5777.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Only the formation of a false breakdown at a maximum of 6360 will be the first signal to sell Bitcoin in order to return and update the support of 6070 and with an output of at least 5777, where I recommend fixing the profits. With further growth along with the trend, it is best to consider selling for a rebound in the region of the maximum of 6520.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence on May 9. The euro keeps the chances of a small growth

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177), which allows traders to expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). There are no emerging divergences today. The strengthening of the pair under the Fibo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and expect a resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the picture is the opposite. Quotes of the pair completed the close below the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1285) that allows expecting a continuation of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). There are no emerging divergences today. The consolidation of quotations above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the EU currency and will allow expecting some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1102 if the pair closes below the retracement level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1177.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence on May 9. The pound rebounded from the level of 1.2990 for the second time

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). The rebound of the pair on May 9 from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the British pound and a slight increase in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.30904). There are no emerging divergences today, and the closing of quotations under the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 50.0% (1.2867).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.2992), rebounded from it and reversed in favor of the pound. As a result, the process of growth began in the direction of the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3031). The rebound of the pair from this level will allow expecting a reversal in favor of the US currency and the return of the pair to the retracement level of 38.2%. The consolidation of quotations above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the chances of continued growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.3069).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of April 3, 2019, and April 25, 2019.

Forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.3031 and 1.3069 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 38.2% since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.2992 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.2992 and 1.2943 and a stop loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3031 (hourly chart).

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on May 9

Hello, dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the development of the local upward structure from May 3 is expected after the breakdown of 1.1220 and the level of 1.1171 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, we follow the development of the downward structure from May 3 and the continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2980. For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0205. For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the continuation of the downward cycle from April 24 is expected after the breakdown of 109.92 and the level of 110.31 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the continuation of the downward structure from May 1 is expected after the breakdown of 122.90 and the level of 123.53 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound/Yen, the subsequent targets for the downward movement were determined from a larger structure on May 3 and the continuation of the downward movement is expected after the passage of the price of the range of 142.85 – 142.62.

Forecast for May 9:

Analytical review of the currency pairs in H1 scale:

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For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1313, 1.1271, 1.1256, 1.1220, 1.1171, 1.1147 and 1.1117. We continue to follow the upward trend of April 25, as well as the formation of the local structure for the top of May 3. The resumption of the upward structure is possible after the breakdown of 1.1220. The first target is 1.1256. The passage of the price of the range of 1.1256 – 1.1271 will allow us to count on the movement to the potential target of 1.1313.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1171 – 1.1147 and the breakdown of the last value will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.117.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 25, the formation of the local structure of May 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1220 Take profit: 1.1255

Buy 1.1271 Take profit: 1.1310

Sell: 1.1169 Take profit: 1.1147

Sell: 1.1145 Take profit: 1.1173

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For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3079, 1.3045, 1.3024, 1.2981, 1.2946, 1.2927 and 1.2882. We follow the development of the downward structure from May 3. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2981. In this case, the target is 1.2946 and in the area of 1.2946 – 1.2927 is the consolidation. We consider the level of 1.2882 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3024 – 1.3045 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The target is 1.3079 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.3044

Buy: 1.3047 Take profit: 1.3077

Sell: 1.2980 Take profit: 1.2946

Sell: 1.2925 Take profit: 1.2882

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For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the key levels in the H1 scale are 1.0264, 1.0242, 1.0227, 1.0205, 1.0182, 1.0169, 1.0153 and 1.0124. We continue to monitor the formation of the initial conditions for the top of May 1. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0205. In this case, the target is 1.0227 and in the area of 1.0227 – 1.0242 is the price consolidation. We consider the level of 1.0264 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The range of 1.0169 – 1.0153 is the key support for the upward structure from May 1. Its passage of the price will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0124.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top from May 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0205 Take profit: 1.0227

Buy: 1.0242 Take profit: 1.0264

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.0150 Take profit: 1.0124

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For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the key levels in the H1 scale are 110.73, 110.49, 110.31, 109.92, 109.70 and 109.23. We continue to monitor the downward structure of April 24. The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 109.92 – 109.70 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement to the potential target of 109.23, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 110.31 – 110.49 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The target is 110.73 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from April 24.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.31 Take profit: 110.48

Buy: 110.51 Take profit: 110.73

Sell: 109.92 Take profit: 109.72

Sell: 109.69 Take profit: 109.27

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For the currency pair Canadian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3561, 1.3534, 1.3512, 1.3486, 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3413 and 1.3375. We follow the initial conditions for the top from May 1. The continuation of the development of the upward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3486. In this case, the goal is 1.3512 and in the area of 1.3512 – 1.3534 is the consolidation of rates. We consider the level of 1.3561 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3448 – 1.3432 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 1.3413 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from May 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3486 Take profit: 1.3512

Buy: 1.3514 Take profit: 1.3534

Sell: 1.3448 Take profit: 1.3433

Sell: 1.3430 Take profit: 1.3415

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For the currency pair Australian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7016, 0.6996, 0.6981, 0.6862, 0.6948, 0.6931 and 0.6920. We follow the development of the downward structure from May 7. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.6962. In this case, the target is 0.6948 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of 0.6948 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. The target is 0.6931. We consider the level of 0.6920 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.6981 – 0.6996 and the breakdown of the last value will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.7016.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6981 Take profit: 0.6994

Buy: 0.6998 Take profit: 0.7014

Sell: 0.6960 Take profit: 0.6950

Sell: 0.6946 Take profit: 0.6931

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For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 124.15, 123.79, 123.53, 123.22, 122.90, 122.64 and 121.92. We follow the development of the downward structure from May 1. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 122.90 – 122.64. The breakdown of the level of 122.64 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The potential target is 121.92, from this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The correction is expected after the breakdown of 123.26. The first target is 123.53. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 123.53 – 123.79 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted movement. The target is 124.15 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle from May 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.26 Take profit: 123.5

Buy: 123.53 Take profit: 123.76

Sell: 122.90 Take profit: 122.66

Sell: 122.55 Take profit: 122.00

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For the currency pair, Pound/Yen the key levels on the H1 scale are 144.27, 143.71, 143.36, 142.85, 142.62, 141.92 and 141.24. We have identified the subsequent targets for the downward movement from the large initial conditions on May 3. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the passage of the price of the range of 142.85 – 142.62. In this case, the target is 141.92 and near this level is the price consolidation. We consider the level of 141.24 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 143.36 – 143.71 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The target is 144.27 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.36 Take profit: 143.70

Buy: 143.75 Take profit: 144.25

Sell: 142.62 Take profit: 144.04

Sell: 141.90 Take profit: 141.30

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Trading Plan EURUSD 05/09/2019

EURUSD is preparing for a strong move.

Perhaps, the trigger will be reports on inflation in the United States on Wednesday and Thursday at 15:30 Moscow time.

Technically, the euro looks ready to break through the levels of 1.1220 and 1.1270 and the big trend to the top.

We are ready to buy from the level of 1.1270.

We are ready to sell from the level of 1.1130.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for May 9. The pair is stuck in the 40-point range.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, May 8, trading ended again for EUR / USD without significant price changes. The pair continues to trade mainly between the levels of 100.0% and 76.4% Fibonacci. And the current wave counting still involves the construction of a downward trend. Since the activity of the markets is now very low, the wave pattern does not change from day to day. News background is also almost absent now. The themes of the trade warrior do not negatively affect the markets yet, although in the future they can still significantly influence the course of the pair. As before, I recommend considering the peak of the supposed wave 2, 3, 3 as the point from which the new downward trend will be built, and the point above which the wave pattern will require additions and corrections.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the downward trend. The current wave counting assumes the resumption of the pair reduction with the targets of 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. The absence of a predisposition of markets for new sales of the pair and their caution hinders the execution of this scenario so far.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 9. Events in the UK are pushing the pound down

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Wave counting analysis:

On May 8, the GBP / USD pair lost about 70 bp more. It continues to build a supposedly new downward trend with the closest targets located near the minimum of wave y. The upward trend is presumably completed and bears the status of the correction. At the same time, the apparent ambiguity of the current wave marking fully admits the necessity of making corrections. Pound sterling in recent months feels very uncomfortable because of all the political turmoil and the lack of decision on Brexit and moves mainly three-wave formations. The news background is not the benefit of the pound sterling, which leads to the conclusion about the high probability of building a new downward trend.

Purchase goals:

1.3182 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1,3259 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2867 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern suggests a decrease in the pair. Only negative messages continue to come from the UK, which leads to a new fall in the pound. Now, I recommend small sales of the pair with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.2867, which equates to 0.0% Fibonacci.

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US raises rates: EURUSD and GBPUSD forced to decline

The deputy head of the US Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida, said that the regulator sees no reason to change the rate either to one or the other. According to Clarida, the weakness of inflation, which caused some concern to the Fed earlier, was largely due to temporary factors, and we should expect its growth. The inflation report for April will be published on May 10. The forecasts are positive. It is expected that inflation rose from 1.9% to 2.1%. At the same time, the dynamics of Tips bonds indicates that expectations are moving in the horizontal direction, that is, the business does not yet see the reasons for the inflation growth, which means that on Friday the markets can expect an unpleasant surprise.

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Perhaps the performance of Clarida was intended to reassure the markets after it became clear that the Trump administration had raised the stakes in trade negotiations with China. The official publication of the intention to increase import duties from 10% to 25% on Chinese goods in the amount of $ 200 billion may indicate that there is no progress in trade negotiations, the likelihood of currency war escalating.

Market expectations for the rate, according to CME, indicate a more than 50% chance of a one-quarter-per-cent reduction in the rate this year, and not at all. Such a move on the part of the Fed will be equivalent to recognizing that the new wave of the crisis officially began. The obvious reaction of the markets - rising panic and demand for defensive assets - will lead to a stronger dollar and the development of a downward trend in stock markets, and thus provoke an approaching recession which is clearly not included in the plans of the Fed.

On Friday, new information will be provided. While fears are growing, it is not necessary to expect the resumption of growth of stock indices. Asian indices are completely in the red zone, July futures for Brent went below $ 70 per barrel, the demand for the Japanese yen is rising, which came close to a 3-month peak of 109.7, which is likely to be attacked in the very near future.

EURUSD

The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, speaking to students in Frankfurt, said that the incentives used by the regulator created more than 10 million jobs and contributed to the growth of wages. At the same time, he was forced to point out that the growth rate of inflation is still significantly lower than the target set by the Central Bank of 2%.

The European Commission, in a semi-annual report published on Tuesday, repeats the words Draghi word for word, but adds that in 2018 the price increase was due to rising energy prices, and taking into account the likely slowdown in oil prices, low inflation by the 3rd quarter will be combined with negative basic effects about the economy as a whole.

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The euro on Wednesday was unable to find support for positive data on industrial production in Germany in March, an increase of 0.5% instead of the projected decrease of 0.5% does not change the long-term tendency towards stagnation. EURUSD is at the upper border of the downward channel, where sales are resumed with a high probability, the immediate goal is to support 1.1182, then 1.1165 and 1.1134.

GBPUSD

Friday is expected to publish a large package of macroeconomic data on the UK economy. Preliminary figures on GDP growth rates in Q1 2019, industrial production and the trade balance in March will be published, plus NIESR will offer its forecast for economic growth as of April.

Forecasts are generally neutral and have no significant pressure per pound. Nevertheless, GBPUSD has been falling for the past week. The negative dynamics are more political than economic. The expected compromise on Brexit between the main political forces of Great Britain did not take place. The meeting between Teresa May and Labor leader Corbin again failed on Wednesday. Conservatives are losing local elections, and by October the political landscape may completely change. This increases uncertainty, and amid weak macroeconomic indicators will not allow the pound to resume growth.

Today we can expect a fall in support of 1.2987, further target 1.2943.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for May 9, 2019

Australia presented mixed economic reports which prive that its economy is still missing momentum. Amid weaker fundamentals, AUD is set to lose ground versus USD in the coming days.

Recently, Australia's Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.9%, beating the forecast for a 0.2% gain. Trade Balance proficit decreased to 4.95B from the previous figure of 5.14B but it also surpassed expectations for a 4.49B proficit. Moreover, AUD leapt as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key Official Cash Rate at its record low of 1.50%, destroying expectations of a further cut. Rate-futures markets were aggressively pricing in a rate cut thanks to protracted feeble inflation. The RBA acknowledged this but also highlighted strength in the labor market which, it feels, may yet take up the remaining economic slack and boost pricing power. the RBA Board recognized that there was still spare capacity in the economy and that a further improvement in the labor market would be needed for inflation to be consistent with the target.

On the other hand, today Fed's Chairman Powell is going to speak about the upcoming monetary policy decision which is expected to be neutral but optimistic for ongoing economic developments. Additionally, US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.6%. US Trade Balance deficit could have widnened to -51.4B from the previous figure of -49.4B. Unemployment Claims are expected to drop to 215k from the previous figure of 230k.

Moreover, disappointed with slow progress in the US-China trade talks, Donald Trump accused China for giving up some of its earlier commitments and threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. The market sentiment on USD is sensitive to negative twists in the trade talks. So, USD has not been as impulsive as expected due to such developments. On the plus side, the US confirmed a better-than-expected unemployment rate and accelerating inflation that sognals low recession risk.

To sum it up, ahead of RBA Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow, AUD is expected to be quite volatile with the gains. Besides, Fed's Chair Powel today will clear up market sentiment on USD. Probably, the policymaker will convince traders to buy USD.

Now let us look at the technical view. After breaking below 0.70 area with a daily close, the price has recently retested it with a daily candle while closing below with pressing bearish momentum. The price is currently going lower after the retest. AUD/USD is expected to continue its downward momentum with a target towards 0.6850 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.70 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for May 9, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, technical analysis gives a rollback to the upward movement. The first upper target 1.3059 is the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, technical analysis gives a rollback to the upward movement. The first upper target 1.3059 is the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 9. The bears entirely regained Friday's growth

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Buyers managed to show themselves only in the large support area of 1.2987, to which I paid attention in yesterday's review. At the moment, the main task of the bulls is to protect this level, as well as to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3043, which will lead GBP/USD to the area of a high of 1.3084, where I recommend taking profits. In case of decline and breakdown of support at 1.2987, it is best to look at long positions for a rebound from the next low of 1.2946.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Throughout the week, today, the bears will concentrate on forming a false breakdown along the trend in the resistance area of 1.3043, where the moving average passes and where the upper limit of the downward channel is located. However, the main task of the sellers will be a breakthrough and a return below the support level of 1.2987, which will push the GBP/USD pair into new lows of 1.2946 and 1.2905, where I recommend taking profits. If the growth scenario is above 1.3043, you can sell after updating the high of 1.3084, or to rebound from the resistance of 1.3125.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The indicator volatility is very low, which does not provide any signal for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 9. The market remains in a narrow side channel

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, the main goal for buyers is to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1214, above which EUR/USD will return to the area of last week's high to 1.1260 and maintain an upward potential with a test of levels 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro declines in the first half of the day, it is best to return to the long positions in the euro after a correction down from the support of 1.1170, provided there is a false breakdown there, or to rebound from a larger area of 1.1138.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will wait for an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the level of 1.1214, which will be a signal to open short positions in the euro in order for it to decline and consolidate below the support level of 1.1170, the breakout of which will push EUR/USD to the area of a low of 1.1138 and 1.1112, where I recommend to lock in profits. With the growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1214 in the first half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1260, but the intermediate resistance can be the level of 1.1240.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The indicator volatility is very low, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USDCAD for May 9, 2019

The USD/CAD pair has been struggling to gain momentum correcting at the edge of 1.3500 area for a few days. The pair is expected to revert to downward pressure after certain gains on the upside.

CAD remains stable amid recent economic reports which helped the currency to stop a sharp increase of USD in the process. Though CAD is still under pressure as trade war concerns have lowered oil prices and have helped the US dollar to sustain the bullish momentum. Recently, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that he was confident the nation's housing sector would return to growth later this year, as markets in Toronto and Vancouver stabilized and the impact of new regulations came into force.

Today, Trade Balance report (CAD) is going to be published which is expected to have positive increase to -2.4B from the previous figure of -2.9B and NHPI to also increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0%.

On the other hand, US-China trade talks have taken a U-turn which remained unsettled recently. President Trump is not quite happy with it. Trump accused China for breaking the deal and threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Escalation of the trade talks are being reflected on the USD market whereas the currency has not been as impulsive as expected due to such drawbacks. Moreover, unemployment rate has improved in the US, while modest inflation indicates a certain possibility of low recession risk.

Today FED Chairman Powell is going to speak about the upcoming monetary policy decision which is expected to be neutral but optimistic for the current economic developments. Additionally, US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.6%, Trade Balance is likely to decrease to -51.4B from the previous figure of -49.4B and unemployment claims might decrease to 215k from the previous figure of 230k.

As of the current scenario, USD has mixed expectation over the upcoming economic reports, while CAD is optimistic. It may lead to further corrections in the process. Any upcoming event on the USD side with positive outcome is expected to lead to certain gains on the upside before CAD regains momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is being carried by the dynamic level of 20 EMA along the corrections at the edge of 1.3500 area. The price is currently heading towards 1.35-1.36 resistance area from where it is expected to push lower again with target towards 1.3200-1.3350 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3600 area with a daily close, the chances of bearish trend in the pair is likely to occur.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on May 9, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, before the news, there is an upward movement, with the aim of 1.1213 - 21 average EMA (black thin line). After working out the news, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the target of 1.1240 resistance line (red bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, before the news, there is an upward movement, with the aim of 1.1213 - 21 average EMA (black thin line). After working out the news, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the target of 1.1240 resistance line (red bold line).

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USD/JPY. Trump is playing a big game: the yen could be hit

The escalation of the US-China trade conflict supported defensive assets. The position of the Japanese currency, which paired with the dollar for the first time since March, fell below the key level of 110, looks the most beneficial (at the moment). And although the pair is sliding down quite slowly, the downward trend is evident: the price has lost 70 points since May 3. Given the rhetoric of Donald Trump, it is logical to assume that this dynamic will continue even further, especially since the White House has confirmed the increase in duties on Chinese goods worth $200 billion. However, some nuances indicate the riskiness of short positions on the USD/JPY pair. Indeed, according to a number of experts, Trump's external aggressiveness does not exclude the intention to conclude a trade deal with the PRC - but on more favorable terms.

It is worth recalling here that trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing have more than once been on the verge of collapse. For example, at the end of last year, Trump in a similar way threatened to introduce new duties, and this fact prompted the Chinese to make certain concessions, or rather, to take quite specific steps. China then pledged to increase imports of US agricultural products, energy and cars. In particular, Beijing agreed to increase the purchase of American agricultural products - primarily soybeans, corn and wheat, for a total amount of $ 30 billion. After that, the White House agreed to resolve trade issues in the next 90 days, during which the United States pledged to refrain from imposing additional duties on Chinese goods.

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This three-month period expired on March 1, but the parties decided to extend the "moratorium" to continue the negotiations. In other words, even before concluding a deal, Trump was de facto able to "force" Beijing to change its trade policy, at least with respect to the above products. According to the latest data, in March, China increased the import of soybeans by 10%. In April, the Chinese increased imports of these products to 7.64 million tons, which is 10.7% more than the same month last year. These figures suggest that the Chinese are fulfilling their commitments - at least in this part.

As many analysts believe, today Trump is playing a similar game. According to the US president, negotiations are proceeding "too slowly" due to the fact that the Chinese side is trying to revise the conditions of the future deal. What exactly we are talking about is unknown, but previous rumors said that the US president agreed to "remove the brackets" of the dialogue a number of significant differences that hampered the entire negotiation process (in particular, we are talking about issues in the field of intellectual property protection).

According to a number of experts, Trump tries to resolve the remaining differences in his "extravagant" way. According to the American press, the parties have stalled on the question of how the agreement will be put into action. The White House plans to cancel duties gradually so as not to lose control of the situation. The Chinese, in turn, insist that this be done at one moment. It is likely that recent events will help the Chinese in making things "right", in terms of Trump's decision. In other words, the US president is playing a big show on the eve of the talks, which, despite numerous rumors, will take place.

And that is not all. According to US journalists, the White House has prepared a quite maneuverable scenario. The fact is that the new tariffs (even if they are introduced by tomorrow) will not apply to goods that are already in transit. This suggests that the parties will have a time gap (about three weeks) to still come to a common denominator. In other words, restrictive measures during this time will not work, but will serve as a "Damocles sword". Quite an interesting move in terms of "trade diplomacy".

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Thus, the White House essentially does not intend to "burn bridges": Trump only makes a warning shot in the air, thereby denoting his intentions. In this aspect, it is important to understand that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He eventually did not cancel his visit to Washington (although it took place a day later). According to the Chinese press, Beijing was weighing in the pros and cons, studying Trump's true intentions in the light of recent statements. As a result, the negotiations today still started. This indicates that the bargain between China and the United States is too early to bury: the parties can still come to a big compromise, despite the pressure of the US president.

In light of the fact that the yen now depends only on the external fundamental background, the prospects for a "truce" (at least of a verbal nature) make short positions on the USD/JPY pair appear risky. Relatively speaking, if according to the results of the current negotiations, Trump "changes his wrath into mercy" in his tweets, the risk appetite in the market will increase again, and the demand for defensive assets, respectively, will decrease. In this case, the pair will return to a low of 110.35 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart) with further growth prospects in the region of the 111th figure.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 09.05.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

According to the latest report for April 2019, the SFOX index currently reads the crypto marketplace as "moderately up." This is indicated by volume and volatility from the eight major cryptocurrencies: BTC, BCH, ETH, LTC, BSV, and ETC. Thus, the sentiment of March this year is maintained, which at that time was only slightly higher.

The value of the SFOX Multi-Factor Market index is determined on the basis of proprietary, measurable indicators and boils down to the analysis of three market factors: price dynamics, market sentiment and further development of the sector. The index is calculated using the proprietary formula that combines quantitative data about search traffic, blockchain transactions and moving averages.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made another leg down to the level of 170.05, but then quickly and shallowly bounced. The technical support at the level of 169.12 has not been tested again, but it can happen anytime as the bounce might be short-lived and the move down might be continued as the wave C unfolds. The next targets are seen at the levels of 166.53 and 165.46.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 187

WR2 - 179

WR1 - 170

Weekly Pivot - 162

WS1 - 152

WS2 - 144

WS3 - 134

Trading Recommendations:

The next market movement is not that clear as we got two opposite scenarios, so it is not the best time to open any new positions and it will be better to stay aside until another trading setup occurs. For all traders that still keep the buy orders open, the next target is seen at the level of 203.28, but it is unlikely to be hit before the wave C unfolds. Any violation of the level of 172.02 again will only accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 166.53 or 165.46.

analytics5cd3c1f449446.jpg

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for May 09, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair had dropped close to 1.1180 levels yesterday as expected and discussed here. This move could be seen as the last leg within the triangle consolidation, presented on the chart here. Please note that 1.1140 levels should remain intact for the triangle to hold and the price might be now preparing to break higher towards 1.1320/60 levels going forward. Looking at the structure, the previous rally between 1.1111 and 1.1260 levels could be Wave A or 1, while the subsequent move (triangle consolidation) could be labelled as Wave B or 2. With this in place, a potential Wave C or 3 should be in the making now and the EUR/USD pair could rally up to 1.1360 as presented here. Interim support is seen at 1.1111 while resistance is at 1.1260 respectively. Watch out for a break higher any time until prices remain above 1.1111 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long stop below 1.1140 target 1.1320 and 1.1360

Good luck!

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Technical analysis: Important intraday levels for EUR/USD, May 09, 2019

analytics5cd3af7c41397.jpg

The economic calendar does not contain any economic data from the eurozone today. The US will present a batch of economic reports such as Treasury Currency Report, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So amid such an economic calendar, EUR/USD is going to trade with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1252

Strong Resistance: 1.1246

Original Resistance: 1.1235

Inner Sell Area: 1.1224

Target Inner Area: 1.1198

Inner Buy Area: 1.1172

Original Support: 1.1161

Strong Support: 1.1150

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1144

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 09.05.2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrencies exchanges according to the daily volume of trade, experienced a serious breach of security, according to the published statement.

According to Binance, hackers used various tactics, including phishing and viruses, to obtain a large number of 2FA codes and API keys in addition to other information. According to the stock exchange, there was one transaction affected by the incident in which hackers could pay 7,000 Bitcoins with a current value of $40,705,000.

In a letter on the Binance website, general manager Changpeng Zhao states that Bitcoins have been extracted from his hot wallets that contain only 2% of the total Bitcoin stock on the stock market. Zhao claims that the other Binance wallets were not affected by the burglary.

Binance will suspend all deposits and withdrawals while carrying out security checks on its systems, which Zhao estimates may take up to one week. Trade will continue to be active, and traders will be able to adjust their positions.

Technical Market Overview:

After the local pull-back to the levels of $5,845, the BTC/USD pair has managed to bounce and made a marginally higher high at the level of $6,307 and is hovering around this level at the time of writing this article. If the bulls will continue to push the prices higher, then the next target is seen at the level of $6,505. Nevertheless, it is worth to notice, that the move up was made on much less momentum then the wave 3, so it looks like the Bitcoin is still unfolding the wave 4 correction as per Elliott Wave scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $7,123

WR2 - $6,689

WR1 - $6,362

Weekly Pivot - $5,868

WS1 - $5,578

WS2 - $5,080

WS3 - $4,863

Trading Recommendations:

The bigger time frame charts are now indicating a possible trend change from bearish to bullish, so only a buy positions should be open on the local corrective pull-backs. For all of the break-out traders, the nearest level to open the buy stop order is located at the top of the resistance zone at $6, 274. The target for all trades is still seen at the level of $6,505.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for May 9, 2019

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The break below important support at 143.74 confirmed that wave 2 still is in motion. The sideways consolidation since mid-March has been a b-wave triangle and the break below 143.74 confirmed that wave c lower to 141.05 is developing.

Short-term the triangle support-line near 143.74 will act as resistance and turn prices lower towards the ideal target at 141.05.

R3: 145.34

R2: 144.52

R1: 143.74

Pivot: 143.31

S1: 142.90

S2: 142.52

S3: 141.85

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 143.70 We will move our stop lower to 144.40

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Technical analysis: Important intraday levels for USD/JPY, May 09, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence Index. The US will present a series of economic data such as Treasury Currency Report, 30-y BondAuction, Natural Gas Storage, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 110.57

Resistance. 2: 110.35

Resistance. 1: 110.14

Support. 1: 109.87

Support. 2: 109.66

Support. 3: 109.64

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 9, 2019

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The corrective decline from 127.50 still has more room to cover and should make it down to the support-area between 122.14 - 122.51 before renewed upside pressure should be expected.

Short-term resistance is seen at 123.50 which ideally will be able to cap the upside for more downside pressure towards 122.51.

Only an unexpected break back above resistance at 124.21 will confirm that wave ii already has completed and wave iii higher is developing.

R3: 124.21

R2: 123.75

R1: 123.50

Pivot: 123.28

S1: 122.89

S2: 122.51

S3: 122.14

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity in the 122.14 - 122.51 area.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 09.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

On the EUR/USD the bears have managed to push the prices lower towards the nearest technical support, but this level never been hit and the price bounced from the level of 1.1173 (low at 1.1167). Since that time the price is trading in a horizontal range between the levels of 1.1167 - 1.1215 and the traders are waiting for a breakout in either direction. The momentum indicator is now hovering around the level of fifty, so the market conditions are neutral and none the bulls nor bears have control over the market now. Please notice, the larger time frame trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1382

WR2 - 1.1317

WR1 - 1.1252

Weekly Pivot - 1.1192

WS1 - 1.1128

WS2 - 1.1061

WS3 - 1.0995

Trading Recommendations:

The down move continues, so the best day trading strategy is to short the local upwards corrections at the Fibonacci retracements (like 50% or 61%) or around the technical resistance levels. The target is seen at the wing lows around the level of 1.1112.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09.05.2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made a lower low at the level of 1.2988 during the Asian session, so the last big up candle has been invalidated completely. The momentum indicator is now way below the neutral level of fifty and the market conditions are close to the oversold levels. Any bounce to the upside might be limited by the technical resistances located at the levels of 1.3017 and 1.3039. Any another violation of the level of 1.2988 will only accelerate the sell-off with a target for bears seen at the level of 1.2962.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3556

WR2 - 1.3373

WR1 - 1.3290

Weekly Pivot - 1.3079

WS1 - 1.3017

WS2 - 1.2819

WS3 - 1.2743

Trading Recommendations:

All the buy orders are still good to play, but the daytraders should be aware of the importance of the level of 1.2988 as any violation of this level will change the short-term outlook to more bearish. The support at 1.2988 is the line in the sand for bulls.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 9, 2019

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the euro worked a magnetic point of intersection of the MACD line with a Fibonacci level of 100.0% on the daily scale chart, which fulfilled our main scenario. The euro resisted external pressure due to better-than-expected industrial output in Germany, where the March indicator showed a 0.5% increase against the forecast of -0.5%. The signal line of the marlin oscillator, which did not reach the boundary of the growth zone, turned down. The reversal of this line from the border occurred on the four-hour chart. Also on H4, the price went below the support of the MACD line. Now the price has to consolidate below the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155) and move further down to the level of 123.6% at 1.1075.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 9, 2019

GBP/USD

On Wednesday, the pound sterling did not look for a place to exploit and preferred to move along the path of a lesser resistance. They were reduced to a Fibonacci level of 23.6% on a daily scale chart. The daily decline was 68 points. As a result, the price consolidated below the balance and MACD lines on the daily and four-hour charts. Conditions for a further decline are formed. It remains to wait for the actual signal - they will leave the price below yesterday's low of 1.2986. The goal is the range of 1.2772-1.2814.

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