USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 4, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence a bullish visit to the resistance at 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) occurred.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The 1.4120 level (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant resistance level where a significant bearish rejection was applied.

Although the area of 1.3050-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, the same price zone was broken below as depicted on the daily chart.

As expected, the 1.3300 level stood as a significant resistance as it corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Since then, the USD/CAD pair has been trapped within the consolidation range between 1.3300 and 1.2970 until a bearish breakout took place on April 11.

Shortly after, a quick bearish decline took place. However, early signs of bullish recovery are being expressed around 1.2460.

Conservative traders are advised to consider any pullback towards 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) as a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. S/L should be placed above 1.3050.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 4, 2016

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On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. The 0.6550 level was broken above a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level at 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

In March, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed. Hence, these price levels now constitute recent support levels to be watched for valid buy entries.

Conservative traders were advised to have a BUY entry around the 0.6760 level. S/L should be raised to 0.6800.

Any bearish pullback towards 0.6850 should be considered as a valid signal to BUY the NZD/USD pair.

This week, bullish persistence above 0.6850 (recent support) is mandatory to maintain enough bullish momentum in the market. Bullish targets are projected towards 0.6960, 0.7050, and 0.7150.

On the other hand, a daily closure below the 0.6850 level enhances a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where a better BUY entry can be offered.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 4, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, as the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), the next demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection on February 26.

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3845 (prominent weekly demand level) where a significant bullish swing was initiated on March 1.

The price zone of 1.4475-1.4670 has been standing as a significant supply zone during the past few weeks.

This week, the depicted downtrend line comes to meet the GBP/USD pair around the same price zone. That is why, a bearish rejection should be expected again around the upper limit (1.4670 level).

The nearest destinations for the GBP/USD pair would be located at 1.4475, 1.4300, 1.4220 and finally 1.3845.

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A lower high was recently achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4470.

The GBP/USD pair looked oversold when the previous bearish decline extended below 1.4040 (temporary support).

That is why signs of a bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were suggested around 1.3845. A recent bullish swing was expressed towards the price levels around 1.4470.

The price zone of 1.4470-1.4670 constituted a significant supply zone where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

On April 7, the market failed to push below the price level of 1.4050. Hence a bullish movement was executed again towards the price levels of 1.4670 and 1.4750 (slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci level).

That's why, the previous shooting-star daily candlestick was expressed indicating significant bearish rejection around 1.4700-1.4750.

This week, daily persistence below 1.4470 will be needed to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.4380 and 1.4220.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 4, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the previous bullish swing to take place towards 1.1500 and 1.1600.

In February, the depicted price levels around 1.1500-1.1550 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback.

Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price levels. If not, further bullish movement towards 1.1700 should be expected.

In the long-term prospect, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if a monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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On December 2015, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart.

On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range. Bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue.

Similar to what happened on October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 should constitute a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Currently, the price level of 1.1600 corresponds to the backside of the broken uptrend line depicted on the chart. That's why, the previous shooting-star daily candlestick was expressed indicating significant bearish rejection.

This week, daily persistence below the price level of 1.1400 is needed to ensure further bearish momentum in the market. Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair may remain trapped between 1.1410 and 1.1520 until breakout occurs.

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Technical analysis of CHF/JPY for May 04, 2016

CHF/JPY is clearly trending down especially after quite a clean bound of the 200 Moving Average in 4H time frame. It managed to break below the massive support area near 112.00, and price returned back to re-test this area after the breakout.

The Fibonacci applied to the first corrective wave after the breakout pointing out on the 110.00 price area as the first target, which is the161.8% retracement level.

Consider selling CHF/JPY at the current level (111.60) targeting S2 support (110.15). The stop loss should be just above the R2 (112.55).

Support: 110.75, 110,15

Resistance: 111.60, 112.55

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 04, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues droping from the level of 0.6914 in the short term. It should be noted that the resistance is established at the level of 0.6914, which represents a daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double top in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6880. So, sell below the level of 0.6880 with the first target at 0.6834 in order to test the daily support 1 and further to 0.6774. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.6774 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double bottom today. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6914 towards the first support level at 0.6834 in order to test it. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.6914, then the trend will call for a strong bullish market from the level of 0.6914 towards the 0.6994 price.

Comment:

  • Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6914 followed by 0.6994, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6834.
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EUR/NZD analysis for May 04, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. Te price tested the level of 1.6693 in a high volume. According to the 1H time frame, I found weakness near the price of 1.6690. I found an up-thrust bar (supply overcame demand) and a potential double top formation. According to the 15M time frame, I found few signs of weakness on the top. I found an up-thrust bar in a high volume (few bars closed in the middle in a high volume), which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downward take profit level is set at the price of 1.6630 and the second take profit level is set at the price of 1.6570.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6675

R2: 1.6750

R3: 1.6875

Support levels:

S1: 1.6425

S2: 1.6345

S3: 1.6210

Trading recommendation for today: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 04, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair broke resistance at the level of 0.9524, which acts as support now. Thus, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9524.The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9443 because it represents the weekly support 1. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for an uptrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9524 on the H1 chart. Therefore, it is recommended to buy above the minor support of 0.9524 with the first target at 0.9577 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of the 38.2% Fibonacci), and continue towards 0.9619 (the weekly resistance 1). On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for the stop loss order is seen below 0.9524. Hence, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9485 to test it again. Furthermore, the level of 0.9443 will form a double bottom.

Intraday technical levels:

  • R3: 0.9719
  • R2: 0.9618
  • R1: 0.9618
  • PP: 0.9577
  • S1: 0.9524
  • S2: 0.9485
  • S3: 0.9443
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Gold analysis for May 04 , 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,276.06 in a high volume. The price broke our consolidation of trading range between the price of $1,303.00 (resistance) and the price of $1,287.00 (support), which confirmed downward direction. My first take profit level at the price of $1,275.00 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of $1,275.00 in a high volume, we may see a potential testing of $1,256.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,298.00

R2: 1,302.00

R3: 1,308.60

Support levels:

S1: 1,285.00

S2: 1,281.00

S3: 1,274.50

Trading recommendations for today: Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies.

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Global macro overview for 04/05/2016

Global macro overview for 04/05/2016:

All financial markets' participants will be closely watching the ADP non-farm employment figures that will be released today as this is a good proxy of the NFP data that is scheduled for release this Friday. Investors expect another advance in the indicator to the level of 205K jobs, that is 5,000 more than a month before. As we remember, the last NFP number was also better than expected and it looks like the markets want to continue this uptrend until the next significant down revision. In conclusion, if the ADP expectations hold up, the labor market will deliver encouraging news at the beginning of the second quarter.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture in the daily time frame. After the recent sell-off bulls managed to bounce slightly, but it seems to me as a more corrective reaction to test the recently broken support (now resistance) at the level of 107.67. Only if this level is clearly violated, bulls might temporary regain the control over this market as the growing positive divergence is supporting the view. Please notice, that the market trades very close to the important daily technical support at the level of 105.15. Any break out lower is a strong bearish signal.

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Global macro overview for 04/05/2016

Global macro overview for 04/05/2016:

The series of services PMI for the eurozone region was released today and it was the first set of this data-heavy day. The composite services PMI for the eurozone hasn't changed as it still is at the level of 53.0 points, just like a month ago. Nevertheless, in some countries PMI varied slightly. The biggest disappointment was French and German data, it was slightly below the expectations. On the other hand, the biggest improvement could be noticed among Italian and Spanish PMI figures that were better than the market expectations. In conclusion, both Manufacturing and Services PMI ( manufacturing data was published yesterday) did not really caused any panic on the markets as the data was overall quite decent and showed that the eurozone economy is slowly but steadily improving despite the internal and global headwinds.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. The market reversed from the swing top at the level of 1.1615, but still bulls are in control over this market and as long as the level of 1.1215 is not clearly violated, bulls will stay in control. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1466.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 04, 2016

As per my previous analysis, GBP/CHF moved lower and currently, it is trading near the S2 (1.3820) support level. The closest downside target could be at S3 (1.3680) where pair previously found the support.

This impulsive wave down is likely to continue, and bears should be dominating at least before one of the downside targets reached. Consider either holding your short position or selling, if price breaks below S2 (1.3820), targeting either S3 (1.3680), S4 (1.3535) or S5 (1.3360) as a final target . The stop loss should be just above the 1.3900 psychological resistance.

Support: 1.3820, 1.3680, 1.3535, 1.3360

Resistance: 1.3900, 1.4000

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 04, 2016

As per my previous EUR/USD analysis, pair reached and broke above the fist target being at R2 (1.1480). At the same time, it did not test the next upside target R3 (1.1640) and it could mean that the uptrend is still valid and rate is likely to continue moving up.

Consider either holding or getting into a long EUR/USD position while rate is near 1.1480, targeting the R3 (1.1640) resistance. The stop loss should be well below 1.1500. Get into long trades with caution as the break below 1.5000 could extend the correctional move down back to the 1.1300 area.

Support: 1.1500

Resistance: 1.1640

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 4, 2016

General overview for 04/05/2016:

There is still one more sub-wave missing on the hourly time frame chart. According to the Elliott wave rules it should be the last wave to the downside - wave (c) blue. The intraday resistance at the level of 123.35 held the line, and the market reversed lower towards the weekly pivot at the level of 122.98. Currently, bears might want to break out below the dashed intraday trend line and test the recent low at the level of 121.66. Please notice that the market is still trading inside the pink bearish zone.

Support/Resistance:

126.45 - Swing High

124.27 - WR1

123.35 - Intraday Resistance

122.98 - Weekly Pivot

121.67 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders from Monday were closed with profit. Currently, the day traders should consider opening sell orders from the current market levels with SL above the level of 123.51 and TP at the level of 121.66.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 4, 2016

General overview for 04/05/2016:

As it had been anticipated, yesterday the market made one more marginal wave down and then strongly rebounded to the upside in impulsive fashion. The impulsive wave almost reached the level of the previous wave XX and then reversed slightly. Nevertheless, the further advance is still possible and the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2758 might be violated soon. After that move, the internal corrective structure should be developed and this wave will be a choppy corrective wave heading to test the dashed trend line around the level of 1.2620 - 1.2630.

Support/Resistance:

1.2434 - WS1

1.2574 - Weekly Pivot

1.2651 - WR1

1.2693 - Intraday Support

1.2759 - Wave XX High |Intraday Resistance|

1.2792 - WR2

1.2873 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders from Monday all reached TP and were all profitable. Currently, day traders should stay away from this market and wait for the next trading setup to occur shortly.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 4, 2016

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument hit the resistance line at 1.1600, and then get corrected lower. However, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern is valid in the market, providing that the price does not go below the support lines at 1.1400 and 1.1350. It is expected that the price would rise from this area today or tomorrow.

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USD/CHF: This pair went down by 130 pips this week, and later bounced upwards after testing the support level at 0.9450. The upward bounce is significant, since the Williams' % Range period 20 is now sloping upwards, but the EMA 11 is still below the EMA 56. Would this be a sustained reversal or temporary rally? Today we will see the answer.

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GBP/USD: After testing the distribution territory at 1.4750, the GBP/USD pair dropped down by 220 pips, now below the distribution territory at 1.4550. There cannot be any jeopardy to the bearish outlook unless the price drops further by another 200 pips this week – an act that could lead to a bearish signal.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair traded higher on Tuesday, in the context of a downtrend. Unless the price goes above the supply level at 109.00 (which would require a serious rally), there cannot be an end to the current bearish bias. Right now, the rally that was seen yesterday would be an opportunity to sell short at a better price.

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EUR/JPY: Yesterday, this cross bounced slightly upwards in a context of a downtrend. The upwards bounce pales into insignificance when compared to the recent bearish outlook on the market. Further bearish movement is possible, and the "sell" signal cannot be jeopardized unless the price goes upwards by 300 pips (which seems unlikely right now).

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 04, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading lower at $17.25 levels at this moment, after printing highs at $18.00 levels earlier. Please note that the metal is testing its immediate support trend line (pushed lower now), and looking for support at the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels. A bullish turn from here could push the metal towards $18.40/50 levels, which is also a major weekly resistance. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to initiate long positions only after a bullish reversal confirmation. On the flip side, a continued drop lower towards $16.80 levels would be encouraging to bearish setup going forward. Immediate support is seen at $16.80 levels, while resistance is at $18.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, initiate long positions on a bullish reversal.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USDX for May 4, 2016

The Dollar index made a strong reversal yesterday as I had warned the Dollar bears. There were several signs that the Dollar index was getting too oversold and that a bounce would come any time. This reversal coincided with price reaching an important long-term support level.

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The Dollar index remained below the Kumo on the 4 hour chart. This implies that Dollar bulls are still not safe. The trend remains bearish despite the bounce. Price reached the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) resistance. Bulls need to break above it so that price could move towards the Kumo (cloud) resistance at 93.80.

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The weekly candle has a very bullish look as price reversed upwards yesterday. We could recognize the bullish hammer pattern. Price reached the 38% Fibonacci and bounced strongly. This is a bullish sign. Stochastic is oversold and diverging. This is also another sign that a bigger reversal could start.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 04, 2013

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USD/JPY is expected to continue its rebound. Overnight, US stock indices closed lower, pressured by shares in energy, bank and materials sectors. Investors were concerned about contracting manufacturing activities in China as well as falling oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.8% to 17750, the S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 2063, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.1% to 4763.

Nymex crude oil lost another 2.5% to settle at $43.65 a barrel, gold declined 0.4% to $1,286 an ounce, silver declined 0.7% further to $17.42 an ounce, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid to 1.800% from 1.865% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded against other major currencies. USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 106.59 after chalking another 18-month-low at 105.52. Upon completing a volatile session which saw a day-high of 1.1614, EUR/USD was down 0.3% to 1.1495.

The British pound was impacted by an unexpected contraction in British manufacturing output (the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI fell to a three-year low of 49.2 in April from 50.7 in March), as well as the ICM poll which showed a lead by the "Brexit" camp over the "In" camp. GBP/USD dropped 0.9% to 1.4533.

Commodities-linked currencies lost heavily against the greenback, with USD/CAD surging 1.5% to 1.2719 and NZD/USD falling 0.9% to 0.6912. In addition, Australia's central bank surprised the market by cutting its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% (vs holding the rate steady at 2.00% as expected), causing AUD/USD to sink 2.4% to 0.7483. The pair posted a strong rebound overnight after marking an 18-month-low at 105.52. Currently it is trading above the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which has crossed above the 50-period one. And the intraday relative strength index remains above the neutrality level of 50. As long as the level of 106.10 holds as the key support, the intraday outlook continues to be bullish, and the pair is expected to return to the first upside target at 107.45 (a key resistance seen on April 29).

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 107.45 and the second one at 107.85. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 105.50 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 104.70. The pivot point is at 106.10.

Resistance levels: 107.45, 107.85, 108.75

Support levels: 105.50, 104.70, 104

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 04, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be trading lower for the day at $1,280.00/81.00 levels, looking to rally one last time through $1,307.00/10.00 levels before reversing lower. The metal might be into its wave 4 corrective drop as depicted on the chart here, before pushing higher into the wave 5 rally. Also note that $1,307.00 is a major resistance on the weekly chart, being targeted by bulls before producing a meaningful retracement lower. Structurally, the metal might just have formed a bottom or might drop to $1,275.00 levels to form a base. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for a bullish reversal to turn long for a short-term rally. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,303.00 levels while support is at $1,275.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, looking to go long on a bullish reversal.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 04, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the key resistance is at 0.9605. The pair has posted some bounces and is currently challenging its nearest resistance at 0.9605. The relative strength index is above 50 but lacks upward momentum, calling for caution. In this case, as long as 0.9605 is not surpassed, look for a new decline to 0.9505 as the first target. Alternatively, a break above 0.9570 would allow for a new bounce to 0.9605 at first.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9505. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9435. The pivot point stands at 0.9605. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to this scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9655 and the second one, at 0.9700.

Resistance levels: 0.9655, 0.9700, 0.9730

Support levels: 0.9505, 0.9435 , 0.94

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 4, 2016

Gold pulled back yesterday as the dollar strengthened and the price could not break above the short-term resistance at $1,297 we mentioned yesterday. The price is heading lower towards the $1,270 support where we could see prices reverse upwards again.

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Red line - resistance

Black line - support

Gold continues to trade above the Kumo (cloud). The stochastic has entered oversold levels so any time now we could see a bounce. $1,250 is the next support after $1,270. As I mentioned in the previous posts, my upside target is at $1,325 but risk reward is not in favor of the bulls.

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Red line - trend line touching previous highs

Gold is above the weekly cloud confirming the longer-term bullish reversal. The stochastic and RSI are giving bearish divergence signals. Bulls need to be very cautious. Weekly support is at $1,255. I believe that if it has not topped already, gold will make a new high near $1,325 and then pull back to $1,190-$1,150.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 04, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 0.6945. The pair remains under pressure below its horizontal resistance at 0.6945. The relative strength index stays below its neutrality area at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited by its key resistance at 0.6945. Below 0.6945, the risk of a slide below 0.6860 remains high. Our next down target is set at 0.6830.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6860. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6830. The pivot point stands at 0.6945. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6980 and the second target at 0.7020.

Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7020, 0.7055

Support levels: 0.6860, 0.6830, 0.6795

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 04, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair failed to post a sustainable rebound after its 2% plunge triggered by the Australian central bank's surprise move to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Although it is currently off its low of 154, it is still far below the key resistance at 156.70 as well as the 50-period moving average. Crossing below the immediate support at 154 would suggest a further decline toward 153.15.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 154. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 153.15. The pivot point stands at 156.70. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 157.50 and the second target at 158.40.

Resistance levels: 157.50, 158.40, 159.10

Support levels: 154, 153.15, 152.20

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 04, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair seems to have hit initial resistance at 123.35 levels as expected yesterday before pulling back lower. Please note that the pair has reversed from fibonacci 0.382 resistance levels and might be looking to push through the 62% retracement levels (124.50) before turning bearish again. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and allow the prices to hit through 124.50 levels before initiating fresh short positions with risk at 126.40. The wave structure reveals that bears are expected to remain in control till the prices stay below 126.40 levels, going forward. Immediate resistance is seen at 124.50 levels, while support is at 121.50 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and look to go short around 124.50 levels.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 04, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair dropped lower yesterday hitting 1.3815/20 levels before pulling back. The pair has dropped beyond our expectations but still remains bullish. Watch out for a reversal around these levels before committing to long positions again. The wave structure indicates that the pair has dropped from 1.5500 through 1.3400 levels in 5 waves. Hence the most likely direction is a 3 wave corrective rally through fibonacci 0.618 resistance levels (1.4747). The first wave might just be complete at 1.4200/10 levels, and the drop from there could be the second leg. The third leg rally is expected to resume any moment and push the prices higher. Immediate support is at 1.3800 levels while resistance is seen at 1.4300 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop around 1.3800 levels, targeting 1.4700 levels.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 4 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We are finally seeing some upside acceleration. We are still and have for a long time now been looking for this acceleration. We do expect much more upside acceleration to be seen but have been disappointed so many times now that we will like to see the real proof. This comes in the form of a break above resistance at 1.6874 and, more importantly, upon a break above 1.7273 that would call for a continuation towards 1.9567 in the longer term.

In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.6560 will be able to protect the downside for a test of resistance at 1.6874.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.6365 and will move our stop higher to 1.6415 securing a profit no matter what happens. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6560 or buy a break above 1.6692 and use the same stop at 1.6415 expecting to move your stop higher soon.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 4 - 2016

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Wave summary:

With the break above short-term resistance at 122.95, the odds favor an important bottom is in place at the 121.66 low. We will now be looking for a new impulsive rally that will ultimately take us back above the 141.06 top.

The corrective decline from 141.06 has been very erratic and very difficult to read. However, the clear loss of downside momentum we have seen lately is telling us that the downside potential is limited and the corrective decline from 149.79 is either coming or has just ended.

Trading recommendation: We are long from 122.95 and will lift our stop to 122.05. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 122.95 and use the same stop at 122.05

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 04, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as the French 10-y Bond Auction, Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI, Spanish Unemployment Change, French Trade Balance. The US will release economic data too such as Crude Oil Inventories, Factory Orders m/m, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1557.

Strong Resistance: 1.1550.

Original Resistance: 1.1539.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1528.

Target Inner Area: 1.1501.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1474.

Original Support: 1.1463.

Strong Support: 1.1452.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1445.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 04, 2016

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data but the US will release some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Factory Orders m/m, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, Trade Balance, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.15.

Resistance. 2: 106.94.

Resistance. 1: 106.73.

Support. 1: 106.48.

Support. 2: 106.27.

Support. 3: 106.06.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for May 04, 2016

At H1 chart, USDX made some gains and broke the psychological level of 93.00, as the Index is trying to extend the correction of the decline held from April 22 on a short-term basis. The short-term resistance is located at the 93.26 level, where a breakout higher will push the USDX to test the 93.52 level, which is also very close to the current 200 SMA position.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.26 / 93.52

H1 chart's support levels: 92.91 / 92.56

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.91, take profit is at 92.56, and stop loss is at 93.26.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 04, 2016

GBP/USD had a strong decline during yesterday's session as the Cable found resistance around the 1.4775 level, and afterwards the pair is looking to consolidate in sideways around the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. However, a breakout below that zone will open the door for new lows toward the 1.4430 level on a short-term basis.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4633 / 1.4722

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4549 / 1.4430

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4633, take profit is at 1.4722 and stop loss is at 1.4543.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 3, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence a bullish visit to the resistance at 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) occurred.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The 1.4120 level (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant resistance level where a significant bearish rejection was applied.

Although the area of 1.3050-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, the same price zone was broken below as depicted on the daily chart.

The 1.3300 level stands as a significant resistance as it corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Since March 18, the USD/CAD pair had been trapped within the consolidation range between 1.3300 and 1.2970 until a bearish breakout took place on April 11.

Traders were instructed to consider any pullback towards 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) as a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD pair should keep trading below 1.2800 and 1.2650 (recent support levels) in order to reach the next support level located at 1.2400 where price action should be watched for a possible bullish pullback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com