EUR and Brexit: Data for the euro area indicate a slowdown in the economy, and Theresa May agitates for the agreement on

The data released in the first half of the day led to a slight decrease in the European currency, as they signaled a further slowdown in the eurozone's economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year.

Basic data

According to a report by the GfK research group, consumer sentiment in Germany began to deteriorate by the end of this year due to the uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy. First of all, this is due to the likelihood of worsening trade wars, which the United States is waging against several countries.

According to the data, the leading consumer confidence index GfK for December of this year fell to 10.4 points from 10.6 points in November. Economists had forecast a decline in the December index to 10.5 points. In GfK also noted that the propensity of households in Germany to accumulate funds has increased significantly, which will necessarily lead to a decrease in the growth rate of retail sales at the end of the year. At GfK, everyone is also expecting a 1.5% growth in consumer activity in German households this year compared with 2017.

The pace of lending to eurozone companies has slowed, which is a bad signal for the economy.

According to the European Central Bank, the annual growth of lending to non-financial corporations in the eurozone in October 2018 slowed to 3.9% against 4.3% in September. I recall that the majority of developed economies are very dependent on the availability of financing, and its reduction may entail a number of negative consequences. The annual growth rate of household lending in the eurozone in October remained unchanged compared with September and amounted to 3.2%.

The growth rate of the money supply in the eurozone in October M3 was 3.9% against 3.6% in September. Economists had forecast an increase in the eurozone M3 monetary aggregate by 3.6% in October.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the pressure on the euro remains, as many market participants expect the Fed chairman to speak, which is scheduled for the afternoon. Market participants are confident that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy next year. The question remains open, what minimum will be laid in the number of increases in interest rates.

While the trade is conducted below the intermediate resistance of 1.1300, the pressure on the euro will continue to continue, which will lead to a decrease in the area of 1.1250 and 1.1220 minimums, which I discussed in more detail in my morning review. In case of breaking daily highs, a series of stop-orders of sellers may work, which will return EURUSD to larger resistances in the 1.1320 area.

The British pound grew slightly ahead of the Bank of England's tomorrow report, which will express its opinion on the Brexit agreement reached between the EU and the UK. If management decides that the proposed scenario is acceptable, the Bank of England may raise interest rates as early as next May.

However, the whole question remains whether the British Parliament will approve the terms of the draft agreement on British withdrawal from the EU. This will be announced on December 11.

Meanwhile, the British government went into agitation mode. British Prime Minister Theresa May is trying hard to convince the UK public that the Brexit agreement reached is the best possible option. However, as many experts note, the chances for parliament to approve the deal remain low.

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Who benefits from the collapse of oil prices and who will lose from it?

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Over the past two months, oil quotes have sunk by almost 30%. It is possible that the fall in prices may continue.

According to experts, the main beneficiaries of further reducing the cost of black gold will be the state-importers of raw materials, including India, China, and South Africa. At the same time, the largest manufacturers, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, will suffer.

According to the research company Capital Economics, for many large countries EM, a collapse of quotes by $ 10 means an increase in GDP by 0.5-0.7%. However, most of the countries of the Persian Gulf, such a dynamics promises a decrease in the index by 3-5%, and in the case of the United Arab Emirates, the Russian Federation and Nigeria, by 1.5-2%.

At the same time, those world central banks that are trying with all their might to curb inflation will breathe a sigh of relief, and their colleagues seeking to spur it, for example, the Bank of Japan, may face another problem.

It is assumed that the cheaper energy will allow some of the Central Bank to refrain from raising interest rates. In particular, the Reserve Bank of India may take a neutral position.

However, much will still depend on the dynamics of world oil demand, which is adversely affected by a strong dollar and trade wars.

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The market has found a new contender for the "flight down"

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The three main events of the currency market on Tuesday are the breakdown of the euro mark of 1.13, the fall of the British pound to monthly lows and the continued attack of the dollar on the yen. Now, we need to take a closer look at the AUD / USD pair, for a number of reasons, could be next in line for the fall.

Why? Everything indicates that Washington is putting even more pressure on Beijing in the framework of the trade conflict. The US authorities are not optimistic about the deal, although soon there will be a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Moreover, the main adviser to the White House on economic issues called disappointing trade negotiations, and the US president wants to introduce additional tariffs on imports from the Middle Kingdom. It is possible that this is a special political move, which is intended to surprise the markets. However, while these statements confirm the judgment that a breakthrough at the meeting will not occur.

The escalation of trade war beats at the rate of AUD / USD and forecasts for economic growth in Australia. The national currency of the People's Republic of China has significantly weakened its positions, so even slight pressure on the yuan can force local authorities to further devalue the currency. The purchasing power of Chinese importers will decrease, and thus the demand for Australian exports will fall.

Iron ore has also fallen sharply in recent days, which may affect the Australian dollar. The negative is already noticeable, for the first time in November, AUD / USD completed the day below the 20-day SMA. Perhaps the next stop will be the minimum mark of this month, 0.7165.

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What does the USD say?

The active monetary position of the Fed this year has become a solid basis for the dollar index rally. However, the decrease in the derivatives market of the probability of three rounds of tightening the Fed's policy in 2019 from 18% to 12% puts a little pressure on the "American". In the absence of this obstacle, the pressure of the "bears" on the EUR / USD pair would be even stronger.

Now nobody wants to build longer-term plans and sell the dollar, it would be at least stupid. In a few days, the Central Bank of the United States will raise the rate, and the growing trade discord between the US and China should boost the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. "Bears" in the main pair could not even keep another portion of criticism of Trump to the head of the Fed.

The dollar positions are strong, and the weakness of the economy or "dovish" notes in the minutes of the November FOMC meeting can only lead to a short-term appreciation of the EUR / USD.

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Gold: one step back, two forward

The Bears are trying to return gold to the trading range of $ 1,185-1,215 per ounce, armed with market concerns about the escalating trade conflict between the US and China and the growing risks of hawkish rhetoric by Jerome Powell. Despite the fact that the derivatives market reduced the likelihood of three increases in the federal funds rate in 2019 from 18% to 12% and expects the indicator to grow only by 2.73% by the end of next year, which is equivalent to one act of monetary restriction, speculators are in no hurry to sell the dollar. It is strange if it were otherwise on the threshold of the December meeting of the Fed, at which, most likely, monetary policy will be tightened.

An additional driver for strengthening the USD index is reducing the chances of a settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing after the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires. If, for the first time in 29 years, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit could not sign a memorandum, then why should the G20 do it? On the eve of the fateful meeting, the White House owner threatened to increase import duties on goods from China by $ 267 billion. His main economic adviser Larry Kudlow claims that in the absence of a breakthrough, tariffs from January 1, 2019, will increase from 10% to 25%. How does China feel in this situation? Is he ready to become a vassal of the United States?

For most of the current year, the trade wars supported the American dollar, which took the status of a safe-haven from gold, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. Investors fled to US Treasury bonds, while the Chinese ambassador to the United States doubted that sales of treasuries would be used by Beijing as a weapon in a trade conflict. Let me remind you that in early 2018, the rumors that the Celestial Empire was getting rid of American papers, inflated their profitability and weakened the position of the dollar.

Despite the short-term weakness, gold is optimistic about the future. For example, Goldman Sachs recommends buying precious metal as one of the TOP-20 strategies for 2019. A decline in US GDP growth, a slowdown in inflation, and a speed at normalizing the Fed's monetary policy will put pressure on the US currency. Indeed, as oil prices fall, inflationary expectations fall, which may force the Federal Reserve to slow down the rate hike process.

Bloomberg Commodity Index and Inflation Expectations in the USA

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Pressure on gold exerts a deterioration in the physical asset market. Chinese net imports of precious metals from Hong Kong in October decreased to 29.6 tons, which is 36% less than in the same period last year. For 10 months, the figure fell by 22% y / y to 439 tons. However, Goldman Sachs is confident that active purchases of central banks level this negative factor.

Technically, the inability of the bears to return the quotations of gold futures to the limits of the trading range of $ 1,185-1,215 per ounce will be evidence of their weakness. To resume the rally "bulls" need a confident test of resistance at $ 1230.

Gold, the daily chart

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The volume of short positions in the oil market peaked in 4 years

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Since the beginning of October 2018, large hedge funds have more than tripled short positions in oil prices. Their volume was the highest in the last four years, analysts say.

As quotes decreased from the highs of early October from a level of $ 86 to the current figure below $ 60, investors increased their positions on the sale of raw materials last week, thereby strengthening the downward trend in the market.

As a result, the stakes on the drop in leading oil prices in London and New York have reached a record level in the last 16 months. At the same time, long positions were significantly reduced.

To date, the short position of hedge funds with respect to Brent and WTI oil is equivalent to more than 200 million barrels compared to 60 million recorded in early October 2018.

According to experts, the current situation may exacerbate volatility on the eve of the OPEC summit +. Market players expect that Saudi Arabia will stand for a reduction in oil production, despite pressure from the United States.

Currently, Brent crude prices have stabilized above $ 60, recovering 3% after a 12% collapse over the past week. According to Tamas Varga, a strategist at PVM, before the OPEC meeting, further development of the situation will depend on the market reaction. He is supported by another expert, Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects, believing that the cartel countries need to be active in defending their position. In the case of OPEC inaction, oil prices will be at the bottom, in the $ 40 + range, the analyst is sure.

Note that over the past two months, the supply of black gold in the market is growing faster than demand. The volume of oil production in the United States rose sharply, while Saudi Arabia and Russia also increased oil production. According to experts, these volumes fully compensate for the potential supply shortage after the resumption of anti-Iran sanctions. According to analysts, the fundamental indicators of the oil market indicate the need to reduce production in Saudi Arabia. The reason for this was the record production in the kingdom, recorded in November of this year, exceeding 11 million barrels per day. In the case of maintaining the current volumes of oil prices will continue to fall, experts emphasize.

Recall that at the upcoming weekend the leaders of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia will meet at the G-20 summit in Argentina. The price of the event will be the price of black gold. The issue of reducing oil production will also be raised.

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EUR / USD: in the center of attention is the decimal places

Italy reiterated itself. Trying to avoid a possible fine, Rome decided to revise the draft budget for the next year, primarily in the context of its deficit. Let me remind you that the European Commission twice rejected the proposed financial document, recommending that the disciplinary procedure is applied to the Italians. And if Rome ignored all previous threats of a similar nature, this time the matter moved from a dead end. True, the compromise proposed by Italy turned out to be very doubtful, or rather, formal. Therefore, the recent optimism of traders was too premature.

At the beginning of the week, there were rumors that the Italian authorities succumbed to the pressure of Brussels and were ready to reduce the budget deficit. However, there was practically no additional information, neither about the plans of Rome nor about the reaction of the European Commission. However, the very fact that the parties are ready to seek a compromise inspired the bulls EUR / USD, after which the price rose to a local maximum of 1.1380.

But as preliminary information became overgrown with details, investor optimism began to fade. First of all, the Italians for a long time could not decide on exactly what amount they will cut the deficit. At the end of the government meeting, they stated that the issue of the budget "should not be reduced to decimal places." Later it turned out that just the notorious decimal places and became a stumbling block between Brussels and Rome. The fact is that the Italians agreed to reduce the deficit by only 0.2%, that is, to 2.2%. It is worth recalling here that initially, the European Commission demanded that the deficit is laid at the level of 0.8%, so this minimal concession disappointed both traders and Brussels.

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In fairness, it is worth noting that the European Commission also moderated its appetites. According to preliminary data, they have now raised the maximum permissible deficit level to two percent. According to rumors, the parties are now discussing this particular target, while the level of 2.2% is totally unacceptable for Brussels.

By and large, this is the last attempt of the Italians to agree. In the case of failure, the EU leadership will resort to the procedure of excessive deficit, which in turn can lead to a significant fine (approximately 1.5-1.7 billion euros). According to one of the Italian newspapers, Brussels intends to begin a disciplinary procedure before the Catholic Christmas, that is, before December 25. Therefore, bargaining "about decimals" is of key importance for Rome if they really want to reach a compromise.

At the moment, negotiations continue, so the market receives only fragmentary and non-system information, mostly anonymous. Of course, the Italian authorities will find it difficult to abandon their recent promises (especially regarding the abolition of the increase in VAT and the abolition of raising the retirement age), so the dialogue between the parties is going to be difficult. The vague prospects for negotiations only aggravate the position of the euro-dollar pair, which is already under pressure from other fundamental factors.

For example, Mario Draghi this week voiced a rather "dovish" speech, acknowledging the slowdown in the key macroeconomic indicators of the eurozone. He did not say anything new, but the EUR / USD bears used this occasion as well, reinforcing the success of the downward movement. Brexit also leaves a lot of questions. There are growing doubts on the market that Theresa May will be able to convince the deputies of the British Parliament to support the deal between London and Brussels.

The general fundamental background of the pair is also due to the strengthening of the American currency. The increased uncertainty about the prospects for the US-China trade war, as well as the events in the Kerch Strait, have increased the demand for the dollar. The support of the greenback was also provided by the Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who yesterday took a rather "hawkish" position. Although last week he had disappointed the dollar bulls with very mild rhetoric. He said that the interest rate was approaching its neutral level, and the slowdown in the global economy would have a negative impact on the growth dynamics of the American economy. Yesterday, he noted that the risks "become more balanced," so the Fed may continue to raise the interest rate.

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Given the combination of fundamental factors, we can assume that the EUR / USD pair will soon slide to the nearest support level. The bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to 1.1235. It's too early to talk about longer-term goals, at least until the outcome of the G20 summit. We can tentatively say that if the Argentinean meeting of the leaders of the United States and China fails, the EUR / USD pair will pick up to the key and most powerful support level of 1.1000.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 28. Bulls fight back in anticipation of news on Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers managed to get above the morning resistance level of 1.2773, which resulted in a small upward correction. However, the main goal is a large resistance level located slightly above yesterday's high near 1.2833, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decline in GBP / USD in the afternoon, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the minimum of the month 1.2723 again under the support area of 1.2774.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

It is best to consider a short position in the afternoon to rebound from a major resistance in the area of 1.2833. However, the main task of the pound sellers is returning to the support of 1.2774, which will allow to build the upper limit of the new downward channel and lead to the formation of a new wave of pound decline in the area of minimum 1.2723 and 1.2663, where I recommend fixing profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of an upward correction on the pound.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator can be seen from the Bollinger Bands indicator of around 30750, which coincides with the 30-day moving average.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The euro is preparing for Christmas, and "loonie" for the summit

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December almost comes on the heels, so it's time, to sum up, the past research and make new plans. So, the forecast for the preservation of the difficult political situation in the UK was justified, the bet on the drop in oil production has played out. Eurocurrency went up to the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar by 2% and 0.6%, respectively, and the British pound fell to the American dollar and the Japanese yen by 2.7% from its peak in November. In relation to the euro, the loss of sterling was 1.9%. Consequently, the strategies of gradually increasing short positions against the currencies of oil-exporting countries and selling pounds on growth have benefited.

What will December bring?

For over 40 years, European currencies and the New Zealand dollar are often in positive territory in December. Their main support is seasonality. The first winter month is favored by New Zealand's dairy farmers. As for the euro, the impressive demand for this currency is due to the large flow of tourists wishing to visit the Old World during the Christmas period. The dollar is often depressed at the end of the year, as a rule, at this time, the closing of positions in dollar pairs is noted. The "American" managed to circumvent only the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar.

If you pay attention to the statistics, then you can find hints of the exacerbation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Such a scenario contributes to an increase in demand for currencies whose countries of origin are closely connected with China. Asylum assets are likely to decline. Leaders of the United States and China are unlikely to quickly solve the global problem.

Oil

Oil in the near future should touch the bottom and consolidate. This is evidenced by the different positions of the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone. The weak position of the national currency of Canada can be associated with a slowdown in the normalization of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. At the last meeting, the Canadian regulator tried to play the role of a "hawk", but a statistic without a positive, primarily on inflation, could make its own adjustments. A similar reason could knock down the US dollar in December. If we take into account the November statements by members of the Federal Reserve, then one might think that at the last meeting this year, the regulator, although raising the rate, will reduce the forecasts.

Based on the foregoing, interesting investment ideas next month will be the sales of USD / CHF and USD / SEK pairs, as well as the purchases of EUR / USD, EUR / CAD, and CHF / JPY.

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The ability to form long positions on the NZD / JPY pair could create a breakthrough in relations between the US and Chinese authorities following the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires this weekend.

In Westpac believe that "loonie" can shoot in connection with the summit. Analysts are reminded of comments by Larry Kudlow, White House Economic Advisor, hinting at the possible signing of the renewed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during this event.

Such a development has not been taken into account by the market, experts say, which can inflate the Canadian dollar rate. In Westpac, it is advised to consider buying it against the yen at current levels of 85.45 with a target of 87.00 and a stop at 84.55.

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Banking analysts also pointed to the sustainability of the loonie to the drop in oil but warned that the risk for long positions to CAD / JPY is from the dialogue of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Negative in the negotiations of the leaders of the two countries at the summit will hit the markets.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 28. The market is waiting for Fed Chairman Jarom Powell speech

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The situation has not changed much compared to the morning forecast but the market is on the side of euro sellers. To change the situation, a breakthrough and fixation above the resistance of 1.1292 are needed, which will lead to a larger upward correction in the area of 1.1327. To rely on maximums around 1.1374, weak data on the American economy will be required. The output of which is expected in the second half of the day. In the case of a further decline in the EUR/USD pair, long positions are best considered after updating the minima of 1.1254 and 1.1223.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

While trading is below the resistance of 1.1292, pressure on the euro will continue. Meanwhile, the release of good statistics on US GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of this year may lead to a new wave of EUR / USD decline with test lows around 1.1254 and 1.1223, where I recommend taking profits. If the data turns out to be worse than expected, a bet on the strengthening of the US dollar can be made during a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will be held tonight. With the euro growth scenario above 1.1292, short positions can be considered to rebound from a maximum of 1.1327.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a further downward trend of the euro.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator fell, which led to the absence of signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Gold prices have been waiting

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According to experts, the cost of the yellow metal retains the current positive trend, while waiting for the situation to unfold in the market for precious metals. Experts are sure that the G20 summit and the actions of the Federal Reserve will determine further gold prices.

The attention of market participants is directed to the upcoming G20 summit, at which Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are to meet. Experts are concerned about how this meeting will affect the value of gold, and whether the "safe haven" asset can demonstrate a rally on the eve of the talks on November 30, 2018.

Many investors holding positions in gold may try to increase them, but if the stock market and the US dollar strengthen their positions, the yellow metal will remain in the current range, from $ 1212 to $ 1235 per ounce.

On Tuesday, November 27, the global stock market traded under pressure after Donald Trump refused to lower tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Analysts believe that there is practically no hope of a truce with China at the G20 summit. Recall, the American president plans to introduce additional tariffs in the amount of 10% or 25% for goods from China worth $ 267 billion.

According to Walter Pehowich, Executive Vice President of Investments at Dillon Gage Metals, the direction of the precious metals market will depend on the outcome of the negotiations between Washington and Beijing. If they fail, investors will actively invest in safe assets such as gold and silver. If uncertainty remains after the summit, the yellow metal will need to overcome the current barrier of $ 1,232 to form a new trend, the expert is sure.

Satendra Singh, a leading technical analyst at commodities, agrees with him, noting that the gold market is "at a turning point." He believes that the bulls are ready to begin an aggressive growth of quotations from current levels, and a turning point will be overcoming the mark of $ 1,235 per ounce.

Recall that in February of this year, gold was trading above the level of $ 1,360 before the Fed raised interest rates three times, which provoked a decline in quotations. Since October 2018, the precious metal has gradually become more expensive. This was facilitated by the global sale of the stock market. Gold strengthened to three-month highs, being at around $ 1244. However, in December of this year, the regulator plans to raise rates for the fourth time in a year, and the market is in suspense. It is a little disoriented and difficult to choose a direction.

On Monday, November 26, the December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.7% to $ 1222.4 an ounce against the strengthening of the US dollar.

In the near future, investors' attention will be directed to the speech of Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman, to be held on Wednesday, November 26, in the New York Economic Club. The head of the regulator will provide the report "Principles of the Federal Reserve System in Monitoring Financial Stability". On Thursday, November 29, the minutes of the last meeting of the Central Bank are expected to be published. Experts believe that these events will largely determine the future direction of the gold market. Many analysts strongly recommend acquiring the yellow metal in the near future, considering that the precious metal is undervalued. According to Tom Beller, a strategist of the Chicago-based company RJO Futures, the price of the precious metal will not reach the level of $ 1,250 now, but things can change in a matter of days. He is sure that the best buy at the moment is gold since this safe-haven asset is cheap and stable.

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British Airlines notes negative consequences of Brexit

British airlines points out that Brexit had an impact on ticket sales, as the weakening of the pound sterling led to a decrease in demand for air travel. However, many companies fear that in the event of a breakdown in the conclusion of a transaction between the UK and the European Union which may worsen the situation significantly.

CEO of Virgin Atlantic Airways, Ltd. Craig Krieger, said that the fall of the pound after the Brexit referendum in 2016 led to an increase in the cost of recreation in the UK. A further drop in the British currency in the case of Brexit without a deal (a "hard" version of the agreement) will put pressure on the operation of airlines paying fuel and leasing in US dollars, as well as cause significant damage to consumers and the UK economy as a whole.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 28

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 1.1271 and the level of 1.1334 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price canceled the development of the upward potential, and at the moment, we are following the local downward structure of November 22. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we consider the ascending structure from November 20 as the main one. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the expanded potential for the upward cycle from November 20 to the level of 114.91. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is near the key support for the rising structure of November 23 (128.14). For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we are following the formation of the local potential for the upward movement of November 20 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 145.86.

Forecast for November 28:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:e2NomDaShek3K2nyEQ6KdAe00tlBf4em4gtHCfGMFor the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1366, 1.1334, 1.1315, 1.1271, 1.1244, 1.1201 and 1.1177. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of November 20. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1270. In this case, the goal is 1.1244 and consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 1.1201. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1177, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1315 - 1.1334 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1366 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1315 Take profit: 1.1332

Buy 1.1336 Take profit: 1.1362

Sell: 1.1270 Take profit: 1.1245

Sell: 1.1240 Take profit: 1.1201SH9gra98T0pSElpJJG4u1JmrLXFuQI3aIy5ibkKcFor the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2831, 1.2795, 1.2764, 1.2691, 1.2658, 1.2613 and 1.2583. Here, after the cancellation of the upward potential of November 21, we are following the development of the local downward structure on November 22. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2691 - 1.2658 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2613. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2583, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2764 - 1.2795 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2831 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of November 22.

The main trend is the local downward cycle of November 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2765 Take profit: 1.2795

Buy: 1.2797 Take profit: 1.2830

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2658

Sell: 1.2656 Take profit: 1.2614ja3T-o6uTvgydR-ThAGb6zdxGk8_b3s77gtdtpK5For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0103, 1.0087, 1.0060, 1.0039, 1.0013, 0.9984, 0.9965 and 0.9945. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from November 20. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0013. In this case, the target is 1.0039 and in the range of 1.0039 - 1.0060 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is 1.0103, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement in the range of 1.0087 - 1.0103, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9984 - 0.9965 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9945 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0015 Take profit: 1.0039

Buy: 1.0041 Take profit: 1.0060

Sell: 0.9984 Take profit: 0.9966

Sell: 0.9964 Take profit: 0.9945cmABkVexb_LqRflptywhq51GclmTDClIQxxGKZ23For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.91, 114.52, 114.34, 114.02, 113.67, 113.45 and 113.07. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle of November 20. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 114.02. In this case, the goal is 114.34 and in the range of 114.34 - 114.52 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.67 - 113.45 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.07 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 114.04 Take profit: 114.34

Buy: 114.52 Take profit: 114.90

Sell: 113.66 Take profit: 113.46

Sell: 113.44 Take profit: 113.12

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For the Canadian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3411, 1.3392, 1.3361, 1.3337, 1.3325, 1.3293, 1.3272 and 1.3240. Here, the subsequent goals for the top, we determined from the local structure on November 26th. The upward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3325 - 1.3337. In this case, the target is 1.3361 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 1.3361 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3392 and the potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3411, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3293 - 1.3272 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3240 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3337 Take profit: 1.3360

Buy: 1.3363 Take profit: 1.3392

Sell: 1.3293 Take profit: 1.3273

Sell: 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7287, 0.7254, 0.7194, 0.7169, 0.7148 and 0.7095. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the downward cycle of November 16. At the moment, the price is close to the key support of 0.7287. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7194. In this case, the target is 0.7169 and in the range of 0.7169 - 0.7148 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7148 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7095, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The breakdown of the level of 0.7290 will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 0.7337.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of November 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7295 Take profit: 0.7330

Buy: 0.7256 Take profit: 0.7285

Sell: 0.7192 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7144 Take profit: 0.7100LNNCTxWHE4Q-gJtHhVRAfMV3vi17jc9Gc2pMFzGn

For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.45, 128.14 and 127.76. Here, we are watching the formation of the potential for the top of November 23. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 129.00 - 129.17. In this case, the first potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, is possible in the range of 128.45 - 128.14. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form the downward structure of November 23. Here, the goal is 127.76.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.45 Take profit: 128.18

Sell: 128.10 Take profit: 127.85

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.81, 147.32, 146.59, 146.32, 145.86, 144.91, 144.43 and 143.99. Here, we are following the formation of the local ascending structure from November 20. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.86. In this case, the target is 146.32 and consolidation is near this level. Passing the price of the range of 146.32 - 146.59 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 147.32. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 147.81, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 144.91 - 144.43 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 20. In this case, the first potential target is 143.99.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.88 Take profit: 146.30

Buy: 146.65 Take profit: 147.30

Sell: 144.90 Take profit: 144.55

Sell: 144.40 Take profit: 144.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the dollar hold on to its last highs after Powell?

The dollar continued to grow as expected for the fourth day in a row. Yet, another escalation of the trade conflict forces investors to seek asylum, although the speech of the Fed chairman can drastically change the course direction.

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The recent criticism of the Fed by US President Donald Trump has raised concerns that the Central Bank may reconsider further policy tightening. Powell's speech will be the highlight for the markets today. The American is trading in a very narrow range as they wait for the speech. Although in recent weeks, the dollar has been under pressure from signs that the Fed may slow down the pace of rate hikes amid a slowdown in global growth, peak corporate incomes and trade conflicts, it manages to keep close to highs. It should be ready to increase the volatility of the dollar.

Investors also need to pay attention to the growing hostility towards the regulator on the part of Trump, who said that the policies of the Central Bank are detrimental to the economy. Another important event will be the meeting of Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, where they plan to discuss trade disputes. While Trump's position - a deal or new tariffs - supports the dollar.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 28, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. Since then, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish under the depicted daily downtrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

Moreover, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone around 1.2750

The current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2750 is maintained on a daily basis.

Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 28, 2018

analytics5bfe7b49d6bbc.png

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection (shooting-star weekly candlestick).

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. The nearest demand level to meet the pair is located around 1.1170 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is roughly located.

A quick decline was expected towards 1.1270 and probably the price zone of 1.1170-1.1150 would be visited soon if early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes.

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Review of the foreign exchange market on 11/28/2018

Once again, gossip about Brexit determined the course of events. As soon as rumors appeared that the British parliament would vote against the adoption of an agreement with the European Union, which Europe had already adopted, the pound immediately flew down. At the same time, it pulled along a single European currency. In principle, the UK's withdrawal from the European Union is beneficial to many European countries, and more specifically to their companies, since it creates additional benefits for them in the form of serious restrictions for the activities of British companies. But in this case, the possible actions of the British parliamentarians create some intrigue. After all, the current version of the agreement, namely in its economic part, is equivalent to the fact that the UK is withdrawing without any agreement. And if it is blocked in parliament, which is extremely likely, and they will even try to send Theresa May into retirement, we can expect that with such actions, they will try to put the Europeans back into the negotiating table and beat the conditions better. And it is in the economic part. So, this is exactly what contributed to the weakening of the single European currency. True, this option is unlikely, since there are many in the British Parliament who advocate a complete break with Europe, and from their point of view, it is better that there is no agreement at all.

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The ruble also lost its position due to political factors. Recent statements by Donald Trump make it clear that the incident in the Kerch Strait will be the reason for the new sanctions. No one cares what happened there since the Western media created a persistent image, to which politicians have to react somehow. And given the tonality of these very images, no other choice but to toughen the sanctions, the White House just does not remain. Moreover, both the already imposed sanctions and those that can only be introduced have a serious impact on the ruble. Thus, the Bank of Russia said that the share of foreign investors now accounts for only a quarter of the total public debt, whereas at the beginning of the year, it was estimated at the half. On the one hand, this is not bad, since it reduces dependence on foreign capital and forces us to actively develop the domestic financial market. Another thing is that in one day, all this does not arise, and it takes years, and until all these wonderful things happen, the domestic economy will have difficulties in the form of a capital deficit.

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Today, all attention to the American statistics, especially to data on GDP. A regular estimate of GDP for the third quarter should confirm that the rate of economic growth accelerated from 2.9% to 3.0%. Also, sales of new homes may increase by 3.7%, which is also very good. Thus, the dollar has a lot of reasons to continue its growth. So the single European currency will have to fall to 1.1275.

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The pound will react not only to the American statistics, but also to the statements of politicians. It is obvious that after the appearance of rumors, journalists will simply sit down on parliamentarians with a demand to comment on this news. It can overshadow data from the United States. Given the mood, or rather the attitude of many parliamentarians towards Theresa May, this will not bring anything good. Thus, the pound will be held at 1.2725.

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The dollar managed to consolidate a little higher than 67 rubles, and now everyone is waiting for the G0 summit, where the meeting of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was to take place. Now, there is every reason to believe that because of the situation in Ukraine, this meeting will not take place. Moreover, there are fears that the new sanctions may be announced a few days ago, so there is no reason for the growth of the ruble. But even with its weakening, things are not so simple yet, since new sanctions may not be introduced, and if they are introduced, they may turn out to be insignificant. So the dollar will most likely consolidate at the level of 67.15 rubles.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 28, 2018

analytics5bfe77b827622.png

Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.7225. This week, the pair rose from the level of 0.7225 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7242. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 28. The level of 1.2724 is the last hope of the pound sterling

analytics5bfe45e2830f9.png

Wave counting analysis:

During the November 27 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair fell by 70 basis points to the minimum of the expected wave b. An unsuccessful attempt to break the mark of 1.2724 led to a departure of quotes from the lows reached. But now, the pound will need a positive news background to build on success. The chances are still more on the complication of the downward trend. However, the current wave counting still suggests the construction of an upward wave with targets above 30 figures.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD from the complication of the downward trend is holding now only the level of 1.2724. A successful attempt to break through this level will complicate wave markings. If this mark still stands, the instrument still has chances to build a wave c. Thus, now I recommend cautious purchases of the pair, based on the construction of an upward wave with a protective order below 1.2724.

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EUR / USD: The demand for the US dollar may slow down. Speech by the Fed Chairman will determine the direction

The US dollar continued to strengthen its position against a number of world currencies. On the one hand, the dollar is supported by investors' expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. On the other hand, Italy's fiscal problems and ECB measures, along with trade sanctions from the United States, alienate traders from risky assets.

Today, all attention will be focused on the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, who may signal how the committee is set to act in 2019. Let me remind you that almost no one doubts that in December of this year the interest rate in the USA will be raised again. Many experts expect that in 2019, there will be at least three rate increases. However, a slowdown in economic growth may significantly affect expectations. On Wednesday afternoon, a report will be released on US GDP growth rates for the 3rd quarter of this year. Here we look.

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An interesting study was published yesterday that says that if the aggregate global interest rate exceeds 2.5%, this could trigger a new financial crisis. It is also noted that over the past few years, the world interest rate has increased from 1.2% to 2.2%, approaching its peak. Experts estimate the ceiling in the region of 2.5%.

Yesterday's speech by Richard Clarida, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, was able to support the US dollar. In his opinion, inflation is restrained, despite strong economic growth, as are fundamental economic indicators. Good employment growth has supported the US economy for two years now. Clarida expects inflation to keep near the Fed's target level of 2%.

With regard to interest rates, then, according to the representative of the committee, monetary policy will continue to depend on the incoming data, and if inflation exceeds forecasts, management will revise its policy towards a more rigid one than it is now. Clarida also believes that it is not necessary to determine the course of monetary policy in advance since the current system of control over rates works very well.

As for the fundamental data that came out yesterday afternoon, on the one hand, the decline in home prices in the US is good news for buyers, but the decline in American consumer confidence, on the contrary, is a wake-up call.

According to the data, the national house price index S & P and Case-Shiller in September of this year grew by only 5.5% compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising by 5.7% in August. The price index for 10 megacities in September rose by 4.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising 5.2% a month earlier, while the index for 20 megapolises grew by 5.1%.

The decline in US consumer confidence in November is not a serious concern. According to the Conference Board report, the consumer confidence index in November fell to 135.7 points from a maximum of 137.9 points when it reached a maximum since 2000. Economists had expected the index to be 135.8 points in November.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, much will depend on whether the sellers are able to break below the support of 1.1285, which will lead to a new wave of sales of risky assets with a 1.1250 and 1.1220 minimum. In the case of an upward correction of the euro, sales can be seen after the test of resistance of 1.1330 and 1.1360.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 28, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1338 towards 1.1265. Now, the price is set at 1.1288. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1338 and 1.1390. Moreover, the price area of 1.1390/1.1338 remains a significant resistance zone.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside.

Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1338 and 1.1253. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1338, the market will decline further to 1.1253 as as the first target.

This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1197 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1338, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 28, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2770. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that GBP/USD is in an upward correction phase and that buying at this stage looks risky. I also found that price is still trading below the downward trendline, which suggests downward trend. My advice is to follow the direction of the trend. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2700 and at the price of 1.2660.

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Simplified wave analysis EUR / CHF pair for the week of November 28

From the powerful support zone since September 7, a flat wave model is formed upward. It has a reversal potential that can change the direction of the short-term trend of the pair.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The downward stretch of the wave in the older TF at October 22 took the place of correction (B).

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The decline that began on November 16 was in the H1 wave of the final part (C). Large counter kickbacks are not expected.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Up to the target zone, a change in the motion vector is unlikely, as bears can use. Then it makes sense to start tracking reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1340 / 1.1390

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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EUR/USD analysis for November 28, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1266. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found the potential end of the upward correction (contracted flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I have also found a short – term bearish trend, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to follow the direction of the trend. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1213.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 28, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC rejected from the supply zone at the price of $4.000. BTC is in short – term balance and I would like to see the breakout of the upward trerndline to confirm potential downward continuation. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities below the upward trendline. The downward target is set at the price of $3.450.

Support/Resistance

$4.000 – Intraday resistance

$3.830– Intraday support

$3.450 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / USD pair for the week of November 28

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The wave pattern formed on the pound chart from mid-August has become a correction for a larger trend. The wave develops mainly in the lateral plane. Most likely, its form will be the "pennant".

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

On October 30, the upward wave zigzag started. The design completes the bull model of the older TF.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

From November 15, the pair began to form an upward zigzag on the chart. He will complete a complex correctional model on a larger scale.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Purchases are quite risky and can only be recommended for trading on small TFs. For long-term investments, you need to wait for the completion of the entire current wave of correction.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3020 / 1.3070

Support areas:

- 1.2750 / 1.2700

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm doesn't take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To trade a trade transaction, you need to confirm your trading systems!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 28, 2018

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The break below minor support at 1.6676 is of concern and indicates that wave iv/ completed prematurely with the test of 1.6782 and wave v/ lower to at least 1.6478 already is developing. A break below support at 1.6561 will confirm that wave iv/ already has completed and wave v/ now is developing.

Short-term, it will take a break above minor resistance at 1.6668 to ease the downside pressure, while a break above resistance at 1.6767 remains needed to confirm a rally towards 1.7023.

R3: 1.6767

R2: 1.6697

R1: 1.6668

Pivot: 1.6626

S1: 1.6561

S2: 1.6539

S3: 1.6478

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6706 with our stop placed at 1.6555.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 28, 2018

analytics5bfe58ee90541.png

The resistance line from 133.12 has once again rejected the rally in EUR/JPY and is pushing prices lower. However, we need a clear break below support at 127.80 to confirm the next decline towards 123.66 is developing.

The risk remains a break above resistance at 129.00 that will invalidate the bearish outlook and indicate a new rally towards 130.06 and 133.12.

R3: 130.13

R2: 129.23

R1: 129.06

Pivot: 128.90

S1: 128.40

S2: 128.00

S3: 127.74

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 128.75 we will lower our stop+revers to 129.25.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for November 26, 2018 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the upper sliding goal 1.2761 remains - the resistance line (red bold line), but most likely, with the news release, the downward movement may continue.

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the upper sliding goal 1.2761 remains - the resistance line (the red bold line), but most likely, with the release of news, the downward movement may continue to the lower fractal 1.2725.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for November 28, 2018 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, it is possible to continue the downward movement with the first target 1.1262 support line (blue thick line). From this level, you can try to work down to the lower fractal 1.1217.

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the downward movement will continue with the first target 1.1262 support line (blue thick line).

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Trading Plan 11/28/2018

Trading Plan 11/28/2018

The overall picture: Important news in the United States.

The market is waiting for an impulse from the news.

In the first days of the week, the euro and the pound are trying to set a downward movement but the key levels are not yet broken down.

Perhaps, the deciding factor will be the news in the US. Today, there will be the GDP report for and tomorrow, November 29, the report on inflation and the minutes of the Fed are expected.

Pound: Sell from 1.2720.

Alternative: Buy when you break higher at 1.2930.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com