Control zones for OIL on 18.06.19

Today, the formation of the local zone of accumulation formed continues in early June. Working within this zone implies sales at the top of the range and their partial fixation at the lower border. Purchases should not be considered as long as the pair is trading below the 1/2 WCZ of 52.61-52.44.

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The flat framework is clearly visible by the opening and closing levels of trading on June 12. This movement is decisive for the formation of a flat.

An alternative model will be developed if the close of today's trading occurs above the level of 55.61. This fact will allow considering purchases tomorrow. The purpose of the upward movement will be weekly CZ of 54.51-54.17. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, which makes it auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 18. Not a hint of a bearish market reversal

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, buyers tried to win back the divergence on MACD, but failed to keep the market on their side. At the moment, the formation of a false breakout of the support area of 1.2520 will be the signal to buy, but it is best to trade against the trend after updating larger lows around 1.2483 and 1.2439. The main task of the bulls will be a return to the resistance of 1.2565, after which it will be possible to talk about the option of a new upward correction in the pound.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The bearish trend for the pound remains. Forming a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2565 in the first half of the day will be a good signal to open new short positions, however, the main task of the bears will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2520, which pulls down GBP/USD and allows us to count on lows of 1.2483 and 1.2439, where I recommend to take profits. When the growth scenario is above the resistance of 1.2565, short positions can be returned to rebound from a high of 1.2603.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decrease in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2495, while growth will be limited by the upper limit in the area of 1.2585.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 18. For continued growth, a breakthrough of 1.1245 is needed

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers urgently need a breakthrough resistance of 1.1245, consolidating on which will make it possible for us to count on the continuation of an upward trend with the update of the high of 1.1286, where I recommend taking profits in the first half of the day. A number of reports on inflation and foreign trade balance can put pressure on the euro, so if the resistance fails to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1245, it is best to return to long positions on a false break from an intermediate support of 1.1216 or on a rebound from a low of 1.1180.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Under the euro growth scenario in the first half of the day, the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1245 will be a signal to open short positions in the euro, but the main purpose of the bears will be a low of 1.1216, consolidating below which will push EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1180 and 1.1139, where I recommend to take profit. If inflation data turns out to be better than economists' forecasts, and bulls will be able to push the pair above the 1.1245 resistance in the first half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1286.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the euro's upward correction.

Bollinger bands

If the euro declines, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1216 area, while growth will be limited to the upper limit in the 1.1245 area.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones for USD/JPY pair on 06/18/19

Working at today's session requires holding a short position and open after the test to determine the resistance of the 1/2 WCZ at 108.79-108.70. It is important to understand that the probability of updating the June minimum is 70%. Purchases from current grades are not profitable.

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It is important to understand that the entire current month is the formation of an accumulation zone. This imposes some restrictions on trade in the flat framework.

To exit from the flat phase, it will be necessary to close trades in the American session, either above the level of 108.79 or below the June minimum. In this case, it will be possible to talk about a phase change. This will provide an opportunity to withdraw part of the position in the medium-term trend and leave it at breakeven.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Burning forecast 06.18.2019 EURUSD

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The tension factor has grown on the market: Iran threatens to withdraw from the "nuclear agreement" as it is under pressure from the United States. Europe is trying to convince Iran to stay in the deal. The United States accuses Iran of attacking tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and presents evidence. The United States is increasing its military presence in the region.

Tension plays toward the dollar.

Oil prices, however, hold near long-term lows, around $50/bpd - this shows that the market assesses the chances of a US-Iran was as low.

But gold still holds high, $1,341.

EURUSD: We are waiting for the Fed's decision on Wednesday.

In the case of a clear statement by the Fed about a likely rate cut, one should expect the euro to start moving upward. The absence of a signal to lower the rate may lead to a breakthrough of the euro below 1.1105

Selling is possible at a break of 1.1199 downward.

Possible purchases upon a breakout of 1.1350

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 18 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is following the expected path lower towards the next corrective target at 134.52, where we expect the corrective decline in wave 2 from 148.87 will complete and start a new impulsive rally in wave 3 that ultimate will break back above 148.87.

Short-term resistance is now seen at 136.59, which is expected to cap the upside for the decline towards 134.52 but only a break above resistance at 136.94 will indicate that wave 2 is complete and wave 3 higher is developing.

R3: 137.35

R2: 136.94

R1: 136.56

Pivot: 136.08

S1: 135.85

S2: 135.45

S3: 135.00

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a break above 136.94

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 18 - 2019

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We are looking for important support at 121.22 to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 122.13 that will confirm red wave ii being complete and red wave iii taking over for a new strong rally towards at least 124.79 and possibly even higher.

Only an unexpected break below important support at 121.22 will invalidate our bullish outlook and call for a new test of 120.78 and likely just below.

R3: 122.49

R2: 122.13

R1: 121.85

Pivot: 121.69

S1: 121.64

S2: 121.22

S3: 120.78

Trading recommendation:

We have bought EUR at 121.75 and placed our stop at 121.20.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 18, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair pullback rally was stalled below 1.1250 levels yesterday. Furthermore, the correction was in 3 ways, falling in line with just retracement. The next move is expected to be lower, back into the 1.1150 levels and further. Please note that another low below 1.1200 levels would see the wave structure from 1.1348 levels in 5 waves lower. This would indicate and further confirm that the next move after a brief correction is expected much below 1.1107 levels. If the pattern is correct, prices are expected to stay below 1.1290 levels from here on. Overall, we are counting on an ending diagonal in EURUSD as larger Wave C, that had begun around 1.1500/10 levels earlier. In continuation of that, the recent drop from 1.1348 levels can be considered as a part of wave v, which is the last leg lower. The ending diagonal structure would hold true until prices remain broadly below 1.1448 levels. We maintain our bearish bias at this moment, against 1.1348 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short against 1.1348 levels, target is below 1.1107.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 18/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

John McAfee is surprised again. Now he decided to set up his own McAfee Magic cryptocurrency exchange. As he wrote on Twitter, it will be a revolutionary platform.

What is this revolution based on? The website explains that the stock market is to allow manual and automatic trading in the cryptocurrency market. It is also friendly for novice traders who can use it on the copy trading service, so-called. "Shadow". What is it about? Well, young players on the stock market can copy transactions of more experienced investors. Their resources remain under their constant control. The assumption is probably to learn from the better ones.

Recently, an eccentric millionaire and founder of a famous cyber security company also said he had plans to issue his own cryptocurrency. For now, little is known about the project. The description remains quite enigmatic:

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has been moving inside of the ascending channel that originated from the level of $226.17, but after the recent local top was made at the level of $278.14 the price reversed and now is getting very close to the lower channel boundary around the level of $268. As long as the price is moving inside of the channel, the move up might continue, but this is still the wave (b) in progress. There is still wave (c) of the overall corrective cycle wave 4 missing. The next technical support is seen at the level of $259.66.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $345.37

WR2 - $311.54

WR1 - $291.71

Weekly Pivot - $256.95

WS1 - $239.45

WS2 - $203.99

WS3 - $185.39

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is the wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 18,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, Trade Balance, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released. The US will publish economic data such as Housing Starts and Building Permits. So, amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1280.Strong Resistance:1.1273.Original Resistance: 1.1262.Inner Sell Area: 1.1251.Target Inner Area: 1.1225.Inner Buy Area: 1.1198.Original Support: 1.1187.Strong Support: 1.1176. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1169. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 18,2019

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Today Japan will not release any economic data whereas the US will publish such reports as Housing Starts and Building Permits. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance.3:109.11.Resistance. 2:108.91.Resistance. 1:108.69.Support. 1:108.41.Support. 2:108.20.Support. 3:107.93. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 18/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The president of the Russian central bank said that talks about the issue of the national digital currency (CBDC) are underway.Financial media report that the head of Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina told the audience gathered at a student conference in the Russian city of Skolkovo that CBDC cannot be issued at this time. However, she added that numerous central banks around the world - including Russia - are exploring this possibility.

She stressed the need to first check the actual reliability of the blockchain technology that underlies many proposed CBDC models. It was only as a result of such research and their positive results that this type of e-currency could be issued. She added that such a solution requires "reliability". In her opinion, such technologies, which are to become the basis for the functioning of the state, must be "mature".

In the further part of her speech, Nabiullina wondered if her country was even ready to implement such a cashless solution in it. She noticed that although some jurisdictions have already made significant steps in this direction and in practice they eliminate cash, there are still places in the world where cash is still irreplaceable and necessary. She added that she knows that people value the anonymity of entering into transactions.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local top at the level of $9,457 and it might be the temporary top for the wave 3 of the overall impulsive wave progression. The sub-waves 1 and 2 were completed and now sub-wave 3 and wave 4 are unfolding. The downside is pretty much limited to the level of $8,800 and that might be the target for the wave 4 correction. Please notice the market has broken above the trendline resistance but has trouble to stay above it for a longer period of time.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,709

WR2 - $10,500

WR1 - $9,878

Weekly Pivot - $8,649

WS1 - $7,945

WS2 - $6,737

WS3 - $6,016

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is wave 3, which is an impulsive wave, so this is the best wave to trade. The target for wave 3 is seen at the level of $9,826.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 18/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another lower low on its way down. The low was located at the level of 1.2511, so the technical support at the level of 1.2529 has been broken. The momentum is weak and negative, so it supports the move down, but the market conditions are starting to become oversold, so some kind of the local-pull back is expected before the move down will continue. The higher time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2846

WR2 - 1.2797

WR1 - 1.2673

Weekly Pivot - 1.2620

WS1 - 1.2493

WS2 - 1.2439

WS3 - 1.2301

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 18/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is trying to bounce higher after hitting the technical support at the level of 1.1206. So far the bounce was limited to the level of 1.1250 and has not even touched this technical resistance. The momentum is weak and negative, but the market conditions are now oversold, so the price might continue the bounce higher. On the other hand, if the bounce is shallow, the price might reverse and hit the level of 1.1206 again. This is very important support and if broken, then the bears might accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1118, another important support. There is virtually nothing between those two levels, so the price can drop like a stone. Please keep an eye on the market behavior at the key support and trade accordingly.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1376

WR1 - 1.1277

Weekly Pivot - 1.1237

WS1 - 1.1132

WS2 - 1.1096

WS3 - 1.0995

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend, but it needs confirmation and so far there is no clear confirmation yet

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 18, 2019

USD / JPY pair

For the seventh day, the Japanese yen is developing in the range of 108.17-108.81 found in between the extremes of June 14 and 11. It is logical to assume that the price will fall out of the range, which will automatically correspond to the price going below the MACD line at H4. This will allow the USD/JPY pair to fall even lower at least towards the target January 10 level of 107.78. The exit of the price from the range opens the target of 109.16, which was the nested line of the price channel on the daily chart.

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The decline in the USD/JPY pair this morning is due to the fall of the Nikkei225 stock index by 0.70%. The remaining ATP indices show growth: China A50 0.36%, S & P / ASX200 0.57%, Kospi SEU 0.38%, IDX Composite 0.74%. Yesterday, the American S&P500 added 0.09%. A more confident growth may be shown today with the release of construction data. The number of permits issued for the construction of a new house is projected at 1.30 million in May against 1.29 million in April while the number of new housing bookings is expected to be at the level of March at 1.24 million. Meanwhile, the growth of stock indices will pull the dollar up against the yen. The likelihood of a growing pair scenario to 109.16 is higher.

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 18, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro was trading in the range of 1.1200/45, limited support for the daily MACD line and the price channel line. Now the euro is facing a choice - to increase the correctional growth to the MACD line on H4 to the price of 1.1283, or to go out of range downward to the Fibonacci level on daily 110.0% (1.1156) as an intermediate goal of a deeper decline (1.1075).

Today, the expected macroeconomic indicators are not in favor of the euro. Eurozone's trade balance for April is expected to decrease from 17.9 billion euros to 16.4 billion, the ZEW eurozone business sentiment index for the current month may drop from -1.6 to -3.6. In the United States, the number of permits issued for the construction of a new house in May is projected at 1.30 million against 1.29 million in April; the number of bookmarks for new houses is projected at the level of the previous period of 1.24 million.

As a result, we are waiting for the price to fall below the level of 1.1200 so that tomorrow, on the decision of the Fed to lower rates at a slow pace, to strengthen the decline.

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Forecast for GBP/USD for June 18, 2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the pound sterling reached another bearish target of 1.2530, determined as a low on December 14 of last year. If we consolidate below the level, we see the prospect of a decline towards the support of the price channel line of 1.2350. But today, the pound has the opportunity to linger above the level of 1.2530 ahead of the Fed's decision on monetary policy tomorrow. This chance is expressed by a weak reversal of the Marlin oscillator signal line on both graphs.

Today there are moderately positive data on construction in the United States. The number of permits issued for the construction of a new house in May is projected at 1.30 million versus 1.29 million in April, the number of bookmarks for new houses is expected to be at the level of March at 1.24 million. As a result, we still adhere to the scenario with the consolidation of prices below 1.2530.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for June 18

Forecast for June 18:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1268, 1.1246, 1.1231, 1.1194, 1.1181, 1.1153 and 1.1131. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of June 12. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1194 - 1.1181. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1153. We consider the level of 1.1131 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1231 - 1.1246. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 1.1268. Up to this level, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1231 Take profit: 1.1244

Buy 1.1247 Take profit: 1.1266

Sell: 1.1180 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1150 Take profit: 1.1132

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2626, 1.2605, 1.2568, 1.2538, 1.2497, 1.2471 and 1.2420. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 7th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2497 - 1.2471. The breakdown of the last value will allow to expect movement towards the potential target - 1.2420. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the range of 1.2538 - 1.2568. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2605. The range of 1.2605 - 1.2626 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2538 Take profit: 1.2564

Buy: 1.2570 Take profit: 1.2605

Sell: 1.2497 Take profit: 1.2473

Sell: 1.2469 Take profit: 1.2423

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0059, 1.0044, 1.0015, 0.9995, 0.9970, 0.9954 and 0.9934. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 7. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9995 - 1.0015. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0044. We consider the level of 1.0059 to be a potential value for the top. After reaching which, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9970 - 0.9954. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9934. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9995 Take profit: 1.0015

Buy : 1.0017 Take profit: 1.0044

Sell: 0.9970 Take profit: 0.9955

Sell: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9936

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.37, 109.01, 108.70, 108.08, 107.76 and 107.35. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 108.70 - 109.01. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 109.37. Meanwhile, there is a price consolidation in the range of 109.37 - 109.58.

The level of 108.08 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its price passage will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first target is 107.76. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 107.35.

The main trend: the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.00

Buy : 109.03 Take profit: 109.37

Sell: 108.08 Take profit: 107.76

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3564, 1.3515, 1.3492, 1.3451, 1.3424, 1.3385, 1.3364 and 1.3334. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 7. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3424 - 1.3451. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3492. Meanwhile, in the range of 1.3492 - 1.3515, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 1.3564 as a potential value for the top, to which we expect a movement, after the breakdown of the level of 1.3517.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3385 - 1.3364. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3334.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3424 Take profit: 1.3450

Buy : 1.3453 Take profit: 1.3490

Sell: 1.3385 Take profit: 1.3365

Sell: 1.3363 Take profit: 1.3335

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6919, 0.6896, 0.6872, 0.6859, 0.6830, 0.6808 and 0.6784. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 7th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6830. In this case, the target is 0.6808, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6784. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the range of 0.6859 - 0.6872. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.6896. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential goal is 0.6919.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6860 Take profit: 0.6872

Buy: 0.6874 Take profit: 0.6896

Sell : 0.6830 Take profit : 0.6810

Sell: 0.6806 Take profit: 0.6786

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.39, 122.09, 121.91, 121.39, 121.14, 120.75 and 120.54. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of June 11. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.39. In this case, the target is 121.14, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.14 must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.75. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.54. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a departure to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 121.91 - 122.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.39. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the development of the downward structure of June 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.91 Take profit: 122.09

Buy: 122.11 Take profit: 122.37

Sell: 121.39 Take profit: 121.18

Sell: 121.12 Take profit: 120.77

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.64, 136.18, 135.88, 135.47, 135.23 and 134.71. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 12. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.47 - 135.23. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 135.47. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 135.20.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 135.88 - 136.18. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 136.64. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.90 Take profit: 136.17

Buy: 136.20 Take profit: 136.64

Sell: 135.47 Take profit: 135.25

Sell: 135.20 Take profit: 134.72

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCHF 06/18/19

Today's trading plan is to find favorable prices for buying the instrument. Pulling down the pair will allow you to enter a long position. The main goal of growth is the weekly CZ 1.0057-1.0039. The probability of the test of this zone is at 70%, so the risk-reward ratio must be tied to these levels. The first support will be the WCZ 1/4 0.9952-0.9946.

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Work in the direction of growth will make it possible to get a profit for 70% of cases, so search for a "false breakdown" pattern or any other necessity to be made towards weakening the Swiss franc.

An alternative model for the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone will be developed if the closure of today's US session happens below 0.9946. This will lead to a further decline within the average daily rate and to obtain more favorable prices with the WCZ 1/2 test 0.9906-09897.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP near resistance, a drop is possible!

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EURGBP is near resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry: 0.8982

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss : 0.9063

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.8791

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/NZD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Price is approaching its support where it could potentially bounce up to its resistance.

Entry : 1.0515

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 1.0454

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.0587

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching support, potential bounce!

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Price is approaching its support where it could potentially bounce up to its resistance.

Entry : 108.147

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low resistance

Stop Loss : 107.854

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 109.012

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Worse and worse (weekly review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD from 06/17/2019)

The dollar strengthened quite briskly, although if you look at the US statistics, you just have to throw up your hands, because there was nothing to be happy about. Thus, the number of open positions at JOLTS decreased from 7,474 thousand to 7,449 thousand, and the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 5 thousand, instead of decreasing by 16 thousand. Unemployment increased by 2 thousand instead of decreasing by 13 thousand. Well, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits did not decrease by 3 thousand, but increased by 3 thousand according to the report of the United States Department of Labor, while the rest further exacerbate the picture. Thus, commercial inventories increased by 0.5%, and the growth rate of retail sales slowed from 3.7% to 3.2%. However, the most disappointing one was the data on inflation, which decreased from 2.0% to 1.8%, together with producer prices, whose growth rates slowed down from 2.2% to 1.8%. Such inflationary dynamics unambiguously suggests that in a short time the Federal Reserve will shift from arguments about the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate to announcing deadlines for easing monetary policy. The only thing that could somehow please investors was the data on industrial production, whose growth rates increased from 0.9% to 2.0%, although they were waiting for an acceleration to 2.5%. So the US data itself obviously did not provide reasons for the dollar's growth.

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At the same time, in Europe there was practically nothing at all, except for data on industrial production, the rate of decline of which slowed down from -0.7% to -0.4%. Although the dynamics can be called positive, it rather shows that the patient occasionally, albeit shows signs of life, but still the negative news from the United States came with enviable regularity, and from Europe only once, and only briefly.

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But we were somewhat more pleased with some information from the shores of Great Britain, although it was still not as intense as that from North America. Particularly pleased with the data on industrial production, which seems to be tired of growing by 1.3% and is now decreasing by 1.0%. But the data on the labor market caused much more enthusiasm, as it was a miracle that the unemployment rate was kept at the same level, although the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased from 19.1 thousand to 23.2 thousand. However, investors are much more interested in data on wages, since they largely depend on the return on investment. So, if you look only at the average wage, then its growth rate increased from 3.3% to 3.4%. However, the picture begins to paint completely different colors, if you look at the average wage, taking into account bonuses or, more simply, taking into account overtime. The fact is that the growth rate of this indicator has already slowed down from 3.3% to 3.1%, which indicates the obvious unwillingness of Her Majesty's subjects to work overtime, for the benefit of employers.

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In other words, it is not very happy everywhere, but negative macroeconomic data came with enviable regularity from the United States. The dollar is still growing. Therefore, the answer to this question lies in a slightly different plane.

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After all, it was not for nothing that Donald Trump did not diligently interfere in the internal affairs of Great Britain, giving everyone advice about who in the course of the next most Democratic elections should be elected head of the Conservative Party, and therefore the prime minister. So, during the most representative elections, with one hundred percent turnout, 312 (THREE TWELVE) members of the Conservative Party decided who would be destined to finally complete the epic with the threefold cursed Brexit. As many as 114 of them chose Boris Johnson, for whom, of course, Donald Trump did not campaign. In the end, a vassal is not a completely sovereign state, so a Suzerain can do anything there, and this has nothing to do with interference in internal affairs. But the piquancy of the situation lies in the fact that the same Boris Johnson is a supporter of the most immediate possible exit from the European family, albeit without a deal. Moreover, by a transaction or agreement, it means only that which includes a clause on payments from Europe in favor of the United Kingdom, and nothing else. And you never know what is written in the rules of this stupid European Union. In other words, the leadership of the Conservative Party brought the unregulated Brexit, with its unpredictable consequences, one more step closer. They are unpredictable only on the scale of the subsequent catastrophe, both for the British economy and for continental Europe. Uncertainty is much worse than understanding negative consequences. After all, when you do not understand what exactly to prepare for, it is much more intriguing than knowing how much you will lose. And for the complete happiness of the Conservative Party, it remains only to make a single step, and in the second round of the party elections to vote again for Boris Johnson.

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Another extremely important event was the incident in the Gulf of Oman, when two oil tankers were either torpedoed or blown up by sea mines. The tragedy occurred near the coast of Iran, which immediately sent the boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to rescue the crews of the ships. But they managed to save only the crew of one of the tankers, as the American missile destroyer had already approached the second. The United States immediately accused the Islamic Republic of all, and although two oil tankers are just a drop in the ocean on the oil market and can in no way affect the balance of supply and demand, the very thought of a military clash between America and Iran plunged all market participants into a state of panic. Any panic usually has a positive effect on the dollar, because it is still perceived as a defensive tool.

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The coming week can be safely called the week of central banks' meetings, and the main one will be the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. In addition, a meeting of the Board of the Bank of England will take place, but few people are interested in it, since it is obvious that the Mark Carney Office will not take any steps until the epic with Brexit is completed and it becomes clear what to expect in the future. But the meeting of the US central bank interests everyone without exception. It is only known that following the results of the upcoming meeting, no changes in the parameters of the conducted monetary policy will occur. However, everyone is concerned about the future plans of the regulator. So far, the official policy of the Federal Reserve System is to gradually tighten monetary policy. Nevertheless, lately, more and more representatives from the regulator have heard the words about lowering the refinancing rate, however, so far in the sense that there are no prerequisites for this. Also in the text of the minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations there were hints of the possibility of revising plans in the direction of easing monetary policy, if the situation requires it. Another extremely interesting factor is that in one of his recent speeches, Jerome Powell focused on the need to develop clear and transparent tools for regulating the financial system in case of unforeseen situations. Thus, everything indicates that some adjustment of the regulator's plans will be announced after the results of the upcoming meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. Against this background, investors will not care about the expected decline in inflation, as well as the slowdown in retail sales growth in the UK.

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Any changes to the plans of the Federal Reserve System will have a detrimental effect on the dollar, so that the single European currency can rise to 1.1325.

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The pound, of course, will be under serious pressure due to the practically guaranteed victory of Boris Johnson, but the realization that the Federal Reserve System is changing course will later make it possible for the pound to rise to 1.2700.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com