NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 5, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

Bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry.

Moreover, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 5, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 28.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2300.

This is considered a low probability after the bearish breakdown of 1.2300 took place on April 3.

Moreover, the depicted Triple-Top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 5, 2018

Bitcoin is currently residing below the $7,000 price area with a certain bounce off the $6,500 today. The bearish squeeze is still quite intact in the market but the tension and indecision in the market seem to be increasing everyday whereas market speculators are still quite optimistic with the further gains in the coming days. The market is still in lower liquidity for which certain spike is expected on either side of the market. As of the current scenario, Bullish Regular Divergence has been spotted in the market which is indicating certain bullish intervention is expected in the market which might lead the price to proceed higher towards $8,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above the $5,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for April 5, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains which lead the price to reside below 1.28 price area recently. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports on CAD and USD this week, the price action is currently quite indecisive whereas CAD is expected to have an upper hand over USD as of the current scenario. Today CAD Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to show more deficit to -2.1B from the previous figure of -1.9B. Moreover, tomorrow CAD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 18.8k from the previous figure of 15.4k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%. On the other hand, USD has been struggling with the economic reports recently which failed to provide the required push for the currency to counter the impulsive bearish momentum in the pair. Today USD Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 225k from the previous figure of 215k and Trade Balance report is expected to have a slightly greater deficit at -56.9B from the previous figure of -56.6B. Additionally, tomorrow Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease to 190k from the previous figure of 313k and Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease to 4.0% from the previous value of 4.1%. As of the current scenario, CAD is currently looking quite optimistic about the upcoming economic reports whereas USD is expected to struggle with mixed economic reports as per forecast. Positive economic report result on the CAD side is expected to provide the required push for the pair to push lower in the coming days whereas worse results will lead to corrections.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing some bullish pressure which is expected to bounce off from the 1.2800-50 price area which will lead to further bearish momentum towards 1.26 price area. The dynamic level of 20 EMA has been violated recently with daily close which does explain the bearish bias in the current market scenario. As the price remains below 1.2850 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Global macro overview for 05/04/2018

Solid data from the US (ADP and ISM yesterday) strengthened the US Dolar and allowed the market participants to wait optimistically for tomorrow's NFP report, but if investors do not get confirmation all options remain in the game. Yesterday, supporting data for the USD were better than expected ones on employment in the private sector, which according to the ADP report increased in March by 240,000 full-time jobs against the expected increase of 205,000 posts. This publication is an optimistic forecast for Friday's official report on the US labor market, considering that the employment component in the ISM index for the services sector has also increased. This was not the case for the new sub-index, which was significantly lower than in February. In general, in March the US ISM index for services was 58.8 points. And it was lower than expected by the market consensus.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame after the ADP and ISM data have been published and before the NFP data are posted. The jobs data turned out to be better than expected, and allowed for a spike in sentiment and prices as the market broke out of the horizontal consolidation zone between the levels of 89.90 - 90.30 and made a new local high at the level of 90.35. The momentum is still above its fifty level so if tomorrow's NFP data will again beat the expectations, then the price might violate the technical resistance at the level of 90.47 and 90.59 and head towards the key technical resistance at the level of 90.98. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 89.90 and 89.63.

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Global macro overview for 05/04/2018

The fact that the race in importing US and China import tariffs is not yet automatic, is enough for markets to regain their balance. Wall Street is moving from hell to heaven, which calms the mood on the currency market with the main benefit for USD.First, China's response to US protectionism has brought a deterioration in moods and increased risk aversion, but in the following hours, the market has focused more attention on the fact that both the US and China have not indicated the specific date of application of the proposed import duties and both sides are open to negotiate . Later it was confirmed by the economic advisor of the White House Larry Kudlow, according to which the tariffs announced by the US for goods from China are just a proposal that may never come into force. Therefore, on the positive side, the global investors hope that the actual restrictions in trade may be on a much smaller scale than those announced, and their consequences will be small (0.1-0.2 percentage points of the US GDP). On the negative side, we have many months of uncertainty about what the negotiations will end, because regardless of the declarations, they remain a gate to the escalation of the crisis.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains in a tight range between the levels of 1.2282 - 1.2238 after a rally towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.2388 has failed. The momentum oscillator is still below its fifty level, so the bias is still negative despite the oversold market conditions. In case the technical support at the level of 1.2238 is violated, the next support is seen at the level of 1.2163.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 05, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot : 0.7270.

The NZD/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.7270. The support is found at the level of 0.7270 which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.7270 while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7302. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.7270. So, buy above the level of 0.7270 with the first target at 0.7302 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.7332. Also, the level of 0.7332 is a good place to take profit. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the NZD/USD pair to climb from 0.7270 to 0.7322 and 0.7342 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7270, a further decline to 0.7209 can occur which would indicate a bearish market on the H1 chart.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 05, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9588. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9588, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9588, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of an uptrend this week. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9588 and 0.9656. So, the support is seen at the 0.9588 level, while daily resistance is found at 0.9630. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.9588. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.9588 with the first target at the level of 0.9630; and continue towards 0.9656. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9630 today, the market will decline further to 0.9532 (major support).

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Bitcoin analysis for 05/04/2018

In the first quarter of 2018, cryptocurrency markets lost just over 48 percent of their value on January 1, and total capitalization dropped from around $ 612 billion to $ 261 billion in the first quarter. The Ripple Price (XRP) - one of the five largest cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap - fell by almost 78 percent, whose valuation unit is at $ 0.51, compared to January 1, at about $ 2.30. The second largest drop in terms of percentage is Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which lost about 73 percent of its value. In January, its price was around $ 2,543, today it is about $ 697. Litecoin (LTC) fell by about 49 percent from the price of January 1, when it cost about $ 231, where today it is around $ 118. The leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, survived the worst first quarters since their inception. The price of Bitcoin fell by about 52 percent from January 1, when the price was around $ 14,122, to about $ 6,890 on March 31. ETH, which was sold at around $ 755 on January 1. It fell by about 48 percent, to around $ 394 on March 31.

The fall in prices in all sectors can be attributed to the increase in regulatory regulation by various global entities, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the control of Japanese unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges following the attack on Coincheck and Twitter, Facebook, and Google banning cryptography-related ads.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the initial breakout through the short-term descending trend line, the price was capped at the nearest technical resistance at the level of $7,500 and returned back to the local lows again. Any violation of the technical support at the level of $6,400 will lead to the test of the recent swing low at the level of $5,820.

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Trading plan for 05/04/2018

After the turbulent trade on Wednesday, the financial markets finally clung to the hope that a trade war between the US and China would be avoided through negotiations. A 180-degree turnaround on Wall Street helps in the Nikkei rally. USD/JPY wiped off by 107, but improvement in sentiment does not bring AUD and NZD to any good. The bounce of the US Dollar hits the price of Gold, which today falls below 1330 USD. The weakening of trading tensions positively reflects on the price of crude oil - WTI approaches 63.6 USD.

On Thursday 5th of April, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on PMI Services data from across the Eurozone and UK, Trade Balance data from Canada and Unemployment Claims data from the US.

SP500 analysis for 05/04/2018:

The words of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, according to which the US tariffs on Chinese goods are just a proposal that may never come into effect, sparkle the hope in the financial markets. This allowed the US stock market to drop in price increases, the SP500 ended the day with a 1.16% rise, which Nikkei (1.9%) followed overnight. The markets in China are closed.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still trying to bounce higher from the low at the level of 254.64 and currently, the bulls have managed to hit the level of 264.60, which is above the short-term descending trend line (dashed black). The move looks strong enough to hit the level of 267.00 or even to fill the gap between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30. The momentum bounce above its fifty level in the oversold market conditions supports the short-term bullish bias.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 4, 2018

Bitcoin has been surprisingly impulsive with the bearish momentum after impulsive bullish trade yesterday. The certain bearish pressure was without any negative news or reports which seems like a misleading price action in the current market situation. Though there has not been any positive news on the Bitcoin or any other crypto currencies, after a strong bullish momentum and engulfing the overall daily pressure the next day raises a question about the market sentiment. There has been some optimism in the market when the price bounced off the $6,500 area this week but today's sudden fall was quite surprising for the investors. As for the current scenario, the price is still expected to retrace at least towards $8,000 price area before showing further bearish pressure in the market. If that does not happen and price proceeds lower towards $5,500 price area, that would mean a strong counter move is going to occur from the $5,000-5,500 price area which will lead to much more impulsive bullish pressure according to the market behavior analysis. As the price remains above $5,000 area, bullish intervention will not be surprise for Bitcoin traders.

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