Analysis of Gold for September 12, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,322.70. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken falling wedge formation (reversal), which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is also a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,335.00 and $1,340-.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,331.85

R2: $1,335.50

R3: $1,337.60

Support levels:

S1: $1,325.90

S2: $1,323.70

S3: $1,320.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 12, 2017

Bitcoin consolidation continues as it is trading inside the support area range between $3,917.20 to $4,386.80. The initial coin offering ban in China led to the confusion in the demand for this cryptocurrency. As the permanent ban in China is not confirmed yet, Bitcoin is expected to be quite corrective in nature. The price of the Bitcoin is expected to gain further despite the certain shocks and confusion in the market as the bullish trend is still quite strong in nature. Currently the price is creating higher lows inside the support area range it is currently residing in, which does signal that further bullish momentum is very near to strike the market to take the price much higher towards $4 500.00 and later towards $5,000.00. A daily close above the $4,386.80 resistance level will confirm the bullish breakout and inject bullish pressure in the market. As the Bitcoin market is developing a mature structure, so in the future impulsive and corrective sequence is expected to be followed in making new highs which would help the investors and traders to take proper advantage of the cryptocurrencies like other financial instruments in the market.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 12, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been upwards. As like I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3287 driven on the report on CPI y/y at 2.9%. According to the 15M time frame, I found that agressive buyers entered the market and that selling looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels for re-estalishing long positions. I got Fiboancci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.3240 and Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of 1.3222 (support cluster). Watch for buying opportunities. The upward target will be set at the price of 1.3288 and 1.3300.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3317

R2: 1.3360

R3: 1.3428

Support levels:

S1: 1.3206

S2: 1.3135

S3: 1.3100

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2017

EUR/JPY is quite steady with the bullish momentum which has recently broke above the corrective structure resistance of 130.60. EUR has gained good momentum today despite the mixed economic reports published. Today, French Final Private Payrolls report was published with a decreased figure to 0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5% and Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate report was better than expected at 11.2% from the previous value of 11.6% which was expected to be at 11.3%. On the JPY side, today we had no economic reports but recently somehow upbeat economic reports were published but the currency failed to gain against EUR this week. This week, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over JPY by observing the contrast of economic reports and the sentiment of the market responding to it. Like reports from the eurozone today, Japan's report was also quite mixed but JPY could not gain against EUR that signals that EUR is stronger and a further upward move is expected in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has broken above the 130.60 resistance level with a daily close where the price is also residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. As for the market structure, the bullish pressure is expected to continue further towards 132.25 resistance level in the coming days. If the price breaks above 132.25 with a daily close, then the price is expected to rush towards the 134.50 level. As the price remains above the 130.60 level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 12, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways at the level of $4,290 driven on the news that The U.K.'s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is the latest in a wave of regulators around the globe to issue a formal warning on initial coin offerings (ICOs).The FCA states on its website that ICOs constitute "very high-risk, speculative investments," and that, as they are largely unregulated, it may not be able to offer protection of any kind. Technical picutre looks bearish since there are broken bearish patterns in the background.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found two broken rising wedges in the background, which is a sign of weakness. Most recently, there is a symmetrical triangle in creation. My advice is to watch for a potential downward breakout to confirm further lower price. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on MA oscilator and rejection from Fibonacci retracement 50%, which is also a sign of weakness. Downward targets are set at the price of $4,000 and $3,605.

Support/Resistance

$4,000 – Support (price action)

$3,605 – Projected pattern target (support)

$4,366 – Intraday resistance (Fibonacci 50%)

$4,450 – Intraday resistance (Fibonacci 61.8%)

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for September 12, 2017

GBP/USD has moved up higher with an impulsive price action today after the series of positive economic reports was published. Today, the UK posted a series of solid economic reports one after the other that increased the volatility of the pair. Today, the UK CPI report was published with an increase to 2.9% from the previous value of 2.6% which was expected to be at 2.8%, PPI Input report was increased to 1.6% from the negative value of -0.2% which was expected to be at 1.2%, and RPI report also showed steady growth to 3.9% from the previous value of 3.6% which was expected to be at 3.7%. Along with these economic reports, Core CPI report was published with an increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.4% which was expected to be at 2.5%, HPI report was published with an unchanged value at 5.1% which was expected to decrease to 4.8% and PPI Output report showed growth to 0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.1%. On the other hand, today US NFIB Small Business Index report was published which did not much change and was published at 105.3 from the previous figure of 105.2 which was expected to decrease to 104.8. JOLTS Job Opening report is yet to be published which is expected to decrease to 5.96M from the previous figure of 6.16M. To sum up, GBP has grown very strong after the upbeat economic reports published today which made USD to lose a good amount of pips against GBP. As of the current scenario, GBP is expected to gain more against USD in the coming days with some correction along the way.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently quite bullish and impulsive in nature which is expected to show some corrective price action towards the trend line support and 1.3130 support level before bouncing up higher towards 1.3370 resistance level in the coming days. As the price remains above the 1.3050-1.3130, support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 12, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has trended lower at the beginning of this week, thus creating a threat to the extant bullish bias on the market. A movement below the support line at 1.1850 would result in a bearish bias, while a movement above the resistance line at 1.2050 would help strengthen it. This is the expectation for today and tomorrow.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has trended higher at the beginning of this week, thus creating a threat to the extant bearish bias on the market. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9650 would result in a bullish bias, while a movement below the support level at 0.9450 would help strengthen it. This is the expectation for today and tomorrow.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has gone further upwards this week, as price is staying around the distribution territories at 1.3250 and 1.3300. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means price would continue going upwards, gaining another 150 – 200 pips this week.

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USD/JPY: This market opened this week with a minor gap and then shot skywards, thus threatening the recent bearishness in the market. Since the outlook on the market is bullish for this week, it is expected that price would continue going upward, reaching the supply levels at 110.00, 110.50, and 111.00 within the next few trading days.

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EUR/JPY: A clean bullish signal has been generated on this cross: price is now above the demand zone at 131.00, targeting the supply zone at 131.50 (which may be exceeded, owing to the bullish outlook on JPY pair this week). As long as price stays above the demand zone at 129.50, the bullish signal would be intact.

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Global macro overview for 12/09/2017

Global macro overview for 12/09/2017:

The Australian NAB Business Confidence data decreased unexpectedly in August. According to the National Australia Bank survey (a survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia based on a pool of hundreds of small and large sized companies), the index deteriorated from 12 to 5, while market participants expected a number of 10 to be delivered in the reported month.

This reading is the weakest one in 2017, indicating the biggest concerns surrounding government policy, consumer demand as well as both wages and energy cost pressures. Moreover, the report showed most industries performed well, while retail sectors conditions continued to stay on negative territory. However, NAB also highlighted that the retail price index dipped into negative territory after steady falls in recent months. This trend is set to be watched closely to determine further growth trends: "We will be watching this trend closely as household consumption is a notable point of difference between our relatively subdued growth outlook and the RBA's more sanguine forecasts," NAB said in the official report. In conclusion, after a one month of data is hard to anticipate much into it. The index still holds close to the multi-year highs and only a further deterioration in sentiment below the zero level would change the outlook for more negative.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had deteriorated recently from the multi-month highs at the level of 0.8125 and now is back in the congestion zone. Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated (around 61% Fibo support at 0.7928) the short-term outlook remains bullish.

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Global macro overview for 12/09/2017

Global macro overview for 12/09/2017:

The US public debt just passed $20 trillion for the first time in history. According to data released by the Treasury Department, US public debt is already $20,162,177,774,904.13 (twenty trillion one hundred sixty-two billion one hundred seventy-six million seven hundred ninety-seven thousand nine hundred four hundred and thirteen cents). Just a six months ago the US debt surpassed $19 trillion, so the pace of indebting the country is surprisingly fast. This amount consists of government debt ($5,539,515,584,857.14) and in the hands of other entities ($14,622,661,213,046.99), for example, domestic and foreign individual and institutional investors. In relation to GDP, US debt is close to 104%.

US public debt growth accelerated after the financial crisis began, and Barack Obama moved to the White House. Since January 20, 2009, when the 44th president took office, until Donald Trump's takeover of the cabinet, US debt grew by a nominal $ 9.32 trillion, up 87.7 %. For comparison, during the presidency of George W. Bush, 4.89 trillion (+85.5%) came from the debt count, while the total of 42 presidents gained only $5.72 trillion. It is worth to add that since the inauguration of Donald Trump (January 20, 2017), US debt has increased by 1.1% only. Of course, such situation is due to not only an excessive inclination to reach the public money, but also a radical decline in the purchasing power of the US Dollar. Even based on the imperfect CPI indicator, it can be calculated that one dollar in 1913 had a purchasing power comparable to today's $25.

Last Friday Donald Trump agreed to the Democrats' proposal and postponed a deadline to raise the federal government's debt ceiling until December 15. By doing this, Trump's administration avoided the "government shutdown" procedure again but did not resolve the public debt problem.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bounce from the oversold market conditions wasn't so far strong enough to break out above the golden trend line resistance and the upward momentum starts to diminishing again. The next immediate support for the bulls is seen at the level of 91.62, but as long as the level of 92.54 is not clearly violated, the bears remain in control over this market.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 12, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair posted a powerful rebound yesterday striking against the 109.50 mark. Currently, it keeps trading on the upside while being supported by the ascending 20-period moving average, which stays above the 50-period one. The relative strength index continues to stand above the neutrality level of 50, calling for upward momentum for the pair.

Hence as long as the pair is above 108.80, it is expected to target 110.40 once reaching 109.95.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 108.80 with a target at 108.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 108.80, Take Profit: 109.95

Resistance levels: 109.95, 110.40, and 110.75 Support Levels: 108.30, 107.80, 107.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 12, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair is supported by a bullish trend line since September 8, which confirms a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for another advance.

U.S. stocks and dollar rose, while US Treasury bonds slipped as fears concerning Hurricane Irma and North Korea eased.

To sum up, while the price holds above 0.9510, look for a new rise to 0.9610 and even to 0.9655 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9510, Take Profit: 0.9610

Resistance levels: 0.9610, 0.9655, and 0.9700

Support levels: 0.9480, 0.9460, and 0.9415

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 12, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to continue its upside movement in today's trading. The pair recorded higher tops and higher bottoms, which confirmed a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index advocates another upside.

Therefore, as long as 143.70 holds on the downside, a new advance to 145.85 and even to 146.50 seems more likely to occur.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 143.70 with the target at 143.40.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 143.70, Take Profit: 145.85.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 145.85, 146.50, and 147.15

Support levels: 143.40, 142.65, and 142.00

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Bitcoin analysis for 12/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 12/09/2017:

According to Reuters, the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice has begun testing blockchain technology for digital auctions where it wants to sell the acquired assets in court proceedings. The platform itself is expected to grow over the years and technological advances. Ukraine wants to introduce a land register as well as a list of state property in the blockchain world. The Ukrainian policymaker provided the following comments: "We want to create a system to sell acquired properties in a more transparent and secure way so that the information contained therein could be available to everyone and so that no one would be suspected of manipulating us." The Ukrainian government has officially entered into a partnership with Bitfur, a blockchain company that specializes in customizing the technology for everyday use. The Bitfury CEO, Valery Vavilov, stated: "The blockchain-based governmental system will save billions of dollars in assets and have a major impact on society and the global economy by requiring transparency and accountability." In conclusion, Ukraine will be another country that sees a potential in blockchain technology to be available for everyday use in government agencies.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market did not move much as the level of $4,326 is still a solid intraday resistance that had been tested three times already. On the other side of the sideways trading zone is the technical support at the level of $3,992. The question remains, whether the bears will be strong enough to violate the support level and push the price lower towards the important technical support at the level of $3,600.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 12, 2017

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Our first downside target was hit in our previous analysis. Today NZD/USD is trading upward and expected to post some further advance. The pair posted a rebound from 0.7240 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Hence, as long as 0.7255 is not broken, look for a further rebound to 0.7340 and even to 0.7370 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7340, 0.7370, and 0.7415

Support levels: 0.7220, 0.7200, and 0.7150

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 12, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.9520 yesterday. The level of 0.9520 coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 30. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.9520 with the first target at the level of 0.9581. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9581 and further to the level of 0.9623. The level of 0.9623 will act as strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9679. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9483 (horizontal blue line). , then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Last minute EURUSD forecast 09/12/2017

Last minute EURUSD forecast 12/09/2017

Important news is not expected, so it will be trading in the most likely range.

The main events of the previous period were played by the market (nuclear tests of North Korea, US sanctions, Hurricane Irma in the US, ECB decision on rates).

New important events for the market are due next week (Fed decision on Wednesday, September 20, and German elections on September 24).

The prolonged growth of EURUSD is temporarily stopped - the high price of the euro does not attract major players. At the same time, there are no big selling, as the market is still set for a possible continuation of the euro's growth.

Thus, the most probable scenario is the fluctuation of EURUSD in a wide range of 1.1880-1.2100.

We believe that buying from 1.1920 and below, with a stop below 1.1870, and selling from 1.2060 and above with a stop above 1.2120, are attractive.

One can buy for a breakthrough to the level of 1.2035.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 12, 2017

The Dollar index has bounced towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement, but short-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below the 4-hour Kumo at 92.50. The Dollar index has reached important monthly support and we could see a very strong bounce from around the 90 level.

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The Dollar index is trading below the 4-hour Kumo. Price is showing reversal signs at the 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance. Support is at 91.70. A 4-hour close below that level will open the way for a move towards recent lows.

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On a monthly basis price is testing the monthly Kumo. A strong bounce is justified from current levels. Dollar bears need to be very cautious. If a large scale upward bounce starts, our target will be between 96-97.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 12/09/2017

Trading plan for 12/09/2017:

Before the start of the European session, the strongest depreciation is noted on NZD (-0.4%). The Australian Dollar (-0.2%) is depreciated as well, temporarily under pressure from clearly weaker data from business confidence index. EUR/USD is trading close to yesterday's lows around 1.1950. (0.0%) waiting for a clear rise in volatility. On Wall Street, all of the indices closed with modest gains yesterday.

On Tuesday 12th of September, the event calendar is rather light in important economic releases, but during the London session, the market participants will pay attention to set of a Consumer Price Index data. Later on, the JOLTs Job Openings data from the US will be released, together with NFIB Small Business Optimism data.

GBP/USD analysis for 12/09/2017:

The important set of CPI data from the UK economy is scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect an increase in price pressures from -0.1% to 0.5% for the reported month. On a yearly basis, the inflation should pick up from 2.6% to 2.0%. If the data is released in line with expectations, then market participants will expect hawkish comments in Thursday's BoE statement after the interest rate decision. It means the British Pound might remain in demand across the board, as the market will start to discount the possible interest rate hike in the future. Nevertheless, it is still not clear how much of the statement will be a simple jawboning instead of a clear and simple further guidance from the Bank of England. It looks like the optimism of market participants is starting to evaporate slowly.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the 78%Fibo at the level of 1.3161 but no new high was made so far and the price stalled above the swing high at the level of 1.3267. The market conditions are overbought on this time frame, so the corrective cycle might be triggered soon. The key level to the downside is the technical support at the level of 1.3126 - 1.3111. Break below the golden trend line support is a first clue that bears are taking control over the market.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY bounces from support

The price of the USD/JPY pair has bounced from the technical support at the level of 107.53 and currently is testing the first zone of resistance between the levels of 109.41 - 109.84. Any breakout above this zone would immediately lead to the test of the important technical resistance at the level of 111.04. Growing positive momentum supports the short-term bullish view.

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Market Snapshot: Gold retreats from the highs

The price of Gold has retreated from the swing highs at the level of $1,358 and currently is trading at the technical support at the level of $1,325. A breakout lower would lead to testing important support zone between the levels of $1,298 - $1,308. Growing negative momentum supports the short-term bearish view.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 12, 2017

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Overview:

  • Pivot point : 1.7293.
  • The NZD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7231 and 0.7293. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel.
  • This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7293, which coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci).
  • Hence, the first support is set at the level of 0.7293. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7293.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above the price of 0.7293 with the first target at the level of 0.7343. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.7343.
  • We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7393) as second target. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7231.
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 12, 2017

Gold price has reached the Kumo (cloud) support on the 4-hour chart. This support area is expected to hold and provide a new upward move in Gold prices to new highs. I'm buying pull backs in Gold.

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Gold price is trading below both the tenkan- and the kijun-sen indicators. But price has stopped the decline at the 4-hour Kumo while the RSI (5) is oversold and showing signs of reversal of short-term trend. This is not the time to sell Gold but to buy more. Why? Because our longer-term view remains bullish.

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Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Price has just broken below the daily tenkan-sen. Support now can be found at the kijun-sen at $1,305. I see very slim chances of reaching the kijun-sen but as long as we trade below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator at $1,328.60) the short-term bearish scenario is still open. A daily close above the tenkan-sen will turn short-term trend to bullish again for a new high around $1,380.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Forex analysis review
USD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 12, 2017

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Wave summary:

Red wave iv seems to be turning into a triangle consolidation. If the really is the case, then we should expect a couple of minor swings inside the triangle boarders before breaking higher towards 1.6969. The rally to resistance near 1.6969 will only complete wave iii/ and after a new flat or triangle consolidation in wave iv and new rally closer to 1.7611 should be expected to complete wave v/ and iii.

R3: 1.6969

R2: 1.6758

R1: 1.6690

Pivot: 1.6600

S1: 1.6475

S2: 1.6434

S3: 1.6406

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6611 with stop placed at 1.6400. If you are not long EUR, then buy a break above 1.6690 and use the same stop at 1.6400.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2017

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Wave summary:

No change in view here.

We continue to look for a move higher towards 134.80 and the ideal wave (D) target at 137.36. Short-term a break above minor resistance at 131.10 should release the energy for the next rally higher towards 134.80 and above.

Only an unexpected break below 129.35 will delay the expected rally higher.

R3: 134.80

R2: 132.67

R1: 131.70

Pivot: 131.00

S1: 130.65

S2: 130.35

S3: 130.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.10 with stop placed at 129.25. Take profit is placed at 137.15.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 12, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate and French Final Private Payrolls q/q. The US will post several economic reports too such as 10-y Bond Auction, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So amid these reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2017.

Strong Resistance:1.2010.

Original Resistance: 1.1998.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1986.

Target Inner Area: 1.1958.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1930.

Original Support: 1.1918.

Strong Support: 1.1906.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1899.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 12, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release several economic reports such as 10-y Bond Auction, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 109.99.

Resistance 2: 109.77.

Resistance 1: 109.55.

Support 1: 109.29.

Support 2: 109.08.

Support 3: 108.86.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

Price has bounced up perfectly and reached our profit target. We prepare to sell once again on major resistance at 130.64 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) for a strong push down to at least 129.37 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, fill price gap).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 96% and we expect a corresponding reaction off this level similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 130.64. Stop loss at 131.15. Take profit at 129.37.

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NZD/USD bouncing up nicely, remain bullish for a further push up

Price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area and has started to retrace. We prepare to buy once again on major support at 0.7225 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up once again to 0.7291 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong support above 2% where we expect a similar bounce from.

Buy above 0.7335. Stop loss at 0.7201. Take profit at 0.7291.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

Price has bounced up perfectly as expected and has reached our profit target. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 87.86 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, fill price gap) for a strong drop to at least 86.67 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support, fill price gap).

RSI (34) sees a long term descending resistance as immediate resistance.

Sell below 87.86. Stop loss at 88.28. Take profit at 86.67.

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EUR/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy on major support

Price has dropped absolutely perfectly from our selling area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 1.1956 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending support) for a push up to at least 1.2083 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, fill price gap).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 6% and we expect a corresponding bounce above this level similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Buy above 1.1956. Stop loss at 1.1901. Take profit at 1.2083.

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly again, prepare to sell

Price has bounced up perfectly and reached our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.9582 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 0.9483 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 100% and we expect a corresponding drop from that level similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 0.9582. Stop loss at 0.9625. Take profit at 0.9483.

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USD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

Price is approaching major resistance at 109.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a push down to at least 107.95 support (Fibonacci retracement, fill price gap, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 97% where we expect a reaction from similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 109.40. Stop loss at 109.95. Take profit at 107.95.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 12, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 12, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 12, 2017

USDX is extending the recovery from September 8th lows and is looking forward to testing the 200 SMA on H1 chart. There are no new lower low patterns and we can expect a short-lived consolidation above the moving average mentioned. That's why we can't discard a rally to test the resistance level of 93.09.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

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The pound likes pleasant surprises

The weakness of the US dollar, moderately optimistic data on industrial production in Britain and investors' awareness that the Brexit negative is already largely embedded in the pound's prices allowed the GBP/USD pair to rise above the psychologically significant 1.32 mark. Sterling recorded its best weekly performance against the US dollar since June, while the acceleration of inflation and the stability of the labor market of Great Britain are able to drive its rate even higher. In this scenario, the probability of raising the repo rate will increase, which is a strong argument in favor of buyers of the British currency.

In July, industrial production increased by 0.2% m/m after an increase of 0.5% m m in the previous month. The manufacturing industry grew by 0.5%, which reduced fears about the sluggish GDP dynamics in the third quarter. In the first half of the year, the economy of the U.K. has become the worst among the G10 currency issuing countries. However, from the middle of August., the economic surprises index managed to reverse the downward trend, which allowed the bulls for GBP/USD to organize a large-scale assault in order to restore the upward trend.

Dynamics of the index of economic surprises in Britain

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Source: Bloomberg.

By the 15th of September, the pound is to be tested by a busy economic calendar, including releases of inflation data, the labor market, retail sales, and a meeting of the Bank of England. At the same time, the acceleration of consumer prices to 2.8% will increase the likelihood of the BoE tightening the monetary policy in the future. In September, the regulator is unlikely to decide to increase rates. It should be noted that the tension in the British society due to the decline in real wages is growing: nurses organize strikes, and at any time they are ready to support workers of other professions. The main reason is the lagging dynamics of the average wage for inflation.

Dynamics of average wages and inflation in Britain

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Source: Bloomberg.

However, without a weak US dollar, the bulls for GBP/USD could hardly have expected such successes. "Dovish" comments urging the Fed to be patience by Lael Brainard and allegations that the U.S. Central Bank is at fault for the deteriorating labor market condition by Neel Kashkari reduced the probability of an increase in the rate of federal funds to 37%. And yet, a month ago, the chances were more than 50%, and in June they reached 61%. The market does not believe in triviality of the possibility of tightening monetary policy and actively sells the dollar.

Its supporter still have hopes that large-scale auctions of the Ministry of Finance in the fourth quarter will reduce liquidity in the market, provoke a correction of stock indices and inflate demand for the American currency. But the low interest in securities and the slowdown in the US economy under the influence of Hurricane Harvey can make adjustments to the bulls' plans for the dollar.

Technically, if the buyers of GBP/USD manage to gain a foothold above the level of 1.321 (88.6% of the wave of the CD model 5-0), then the risks of continuing the upward push in the direction of the target by 127.2% on the AB=CD pattern will increase sharply.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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Bitcoin Analysis for September 11, 2017

Bitcoin has been very volatile recently with great consolidation in the process. The Chinese ban on initial coin offerings had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency. Moreover, the Chinese regulator is also thinking of banning Bitcoin, which could lead to a drastic fall in the demand. The reports are still not confirmed and the market sentiment is still confused, which led to further correction. Currently, the price is residing between the range of 3,917.20 to 4,386.80, so no directional movement is expected to hit the market soon. A daily close above the range resistance or support will lead to further directional bias in this instrument. Currently, the dynamic level of 20 EMA is holding the price lower below the resistance level of 4,386.80 along with the Kijun Sen resistance as well. As for the technical view, there is a certain possibility that the price will break below the support level of 4,386.80 and head downwards to the 2,870.00 support area. The current bias remains non-directional until the price breaks on either way with an impulsive daily close.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for September 11, 2017

USD/JPY has been corrective and volatile recently, residing below the resistance area of 110.20-60. Today, JPY found support from economic reports including Core Machinery Orders report which was published with an increased value of 8.0% against the negative value of -1.9% which was expected to be at 4.2%, M2 Money Stock report was published with an unchanged value at 4.0% which was expected to increase to 4.1%, Tertiary Industry Activity report was published as expected at 0.1% from the previous negative value of -0.2%, and Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was published with a significant increase to 36.3% from the previous value of 28.0%. Despite the positive economic reports published on JPY side and no economic reports from the US today, JPY could not gain over USD but lost some grounds as well. To sum up, USD is expected to show a further gain over JPY in the coming days as of the current market sentiment. Any positive economic reports on USD side to be posted later this week will inject more bullish impulsive pressure in the future.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has opened higher with a gap today and after filling up the gap the price has moved quite higher today as well. Due to the current volatile structure of this pair, the price is likely to move higher for a short-term period towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA and further towards the resistance area of 110.20-60. A daily close above the support level of 1.0850 will confirm the bullish move in the coming days of the week. As the price remains below the resistance area of 110.20-60, the bearish sentiment is expected to continue further with a target towards 105.00 or lower.

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