GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 9. The pound is waiting for a new wave of decline

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, buyers of the pound need to stay above the lower boundary of the rising channel in the area of 1.2501, which was formed yesterday. As long as trading is conducted above support at 1.2501, we can expect the momentum for a correction to be maintained, the target of which will be a resistance of 1.2537. Consolidationabove this range will lead to an update of highs of 1.2585 and 1.2639, where I recommend to take profit. If the pressure on the pound continues, the breakout of the 1.2501 range will lead to updating last week's lows with the test of supports at 1.2471 and 1.2439, where you can open long positions immediately to rebound.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will count on the continuation of the trend movement, and a retest of support for 1.2501 may lead to its breakdown, which will only raise pressure on the pound and pull it down to new lows around 1.2471 and 1.2439, where I recommend taking profits. In case buyers return to the market, the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2537 will be a signal to open short positions. Otherwise, you can sell the pound to rebound from a high of 1.2585.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 9. Further movement in the pair depends on the Fed chairman's speech

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's reports in Germany did not allow the pair to get out of the narrow side channel. Currently, buyers will expect to form a false breakdown around the 1.1207 low, and only in this scenario can you consider long positions in the euro with the main goal of breaking through and consolidating above a resistance of 1.1235, from which we can expect an update of a 1.1268 high and take profits on long positions. If the bears break through support at 1.1207, and this can happen during Fed chairman Jerome Powell's speech, then it is best to consider buying EUR/USD from lows of 1.1182 and 1.1161 lows.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, bears will try to break through below support for 1.1207, however, it is necessary to wait for the speech of the Fed chairman, who may voice the further fate of interest rates. The breakthrough of 1.1207 will provide pressure on EUR/USD, which will lead to a test of lows of 1.1182 and 1.1161, where I recommend taking profits. The best scenario for selling the euro in the first half of the day would be a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1235, but I recommend only opening short positions to rebound immediately from a high of 1.1268.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the market with the trend.

Bollinger bands

Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 09,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as Italian Retail Sales m/m will be published. The US will release such economic data as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIBSmall Business Index. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1269. Strong Resistance:1.1263. Original Resistance: 1.1252. Inner Sell Area: 1.1241. Target Inner Area: 1.1215. Inner Buy Area: 1.1189. Original Support: 1.1178. Strong Support: 1.1167. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1161. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, July 09,2019

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Japan will release such economic data as the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, M2Money Stock y/y, and Average Cash Earnings y/y. The US will publish such economic data as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS JobOpenings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:109.43. Resistance. 2:109.22. Resistance. 1:109.01. Support. 1:108.74. Support. 2:108.53. Support. 3:108.32. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 09/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Saeed Zarandi, an Iranian assistant minister for industry, trade, and supply, said the US Congress was working to stop Iran from accessing cryptocurrencies and extracting Bitcoins, according to a local news service.

According to Zarandi, Congress considers the cryptocurrency as a tool to avoid sanctions and for money laundering, and therefore attempts to pass a law against Iran's access to them, complicating national legislation.

Commenting that the issue of cryptocurrencies remained unresolved in Iran, Zarandi reportedly said that Iran's ministries are working with the Central Bank of Iran to regulate the cryptocurrencies and their use in the country.

In December 2018, the Chamber and the Senate introduced bills directed against the illegal financing of Iran, including cryptocurrencies. So far, none of them has been passed.

At the end of January, the Iranian central bank announced plans to set up a national cryptocurrency at a conference in Tehran. Although theoretically similar to Petro in Venezuela, this new currency, PayMon, apparently did not take on much importance.

Recent news suggests that the Iranian government itself is ambivalent to miners. At the end of June, the Iranian authorities confiscated about 1,000 machines used to extract Bitcoins. This occurred after the Ministry of Energy announced that it was planned to cut off power to suspicious mining activities that benefited from subsidized electricity in the country.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $317.30. This means that step by step the bulls are regaining the control over the market and are pushing the prices higher after the corrective cycle had been completed. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $324.09, which is the wave (B) top. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the swing high located at the level of $362.60.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $360.95

WR2 - $335.54

WR1 - $324.79

Weekly Pivot - $298.87

WS1 - $285.22

WS2 - $258.89

WS3 - $247.45

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 09/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The self-proclaimed creator of Bitcoin Craig Wright allegedly provided falsified court documents to prove a trust deed with his reasons, according to the documents disclosed on Twitter by court lawyer Stephen Palley.

According to Palley, the self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto did not prove his case by presenting court documents that Palley considers false because they contain many chronological discrepancies.

Among the evidence filed with the South Florida District Court on July 3, there is a trust document submitted as evidence of collaboration between Wright and David Kleiman, now whose lawyers filed a case against Wright in February 2018. Kleiman's lawyers accuse Wright of stealing hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins - with a present value of over USD 5 billion - after Kleiman's death in April 2013.

While the submitted trust document is dated October 23, 2012, the file metadata indicates that the document was created after Kleiman's death, as Palley said. The trust document apparently uses the copyright notice from 2015 regarding Calibri, the Microsoft Word font, thus indicating that the document can not come from an earlier period.

At the end of June, Wright declared that he could not comply with the court order to provide a list of all of his first Bitcoin protocols, claiming that he had given Kleiman key information about funds and portfolios before his death.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTCU/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $12,363 and a new local high was made at the level of $12,687. The ABC correction seems to be completed now and the market might be ready for another wave up. The next target is seen at the level of $13,293 and if this level is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is this year high at the level of $13,698.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,886

WR2 - $13,428

WR1 - $12,616

Weekly Pivot - $11,119

WS1 - $10,237

WS2 - $8,716

WS3 - $7,123

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger ABC correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the technical support at the levels of 1.2559, 1.2529 and 1.2505 on its way down to the new swing low made at the level of 1.2476. As we can see the price is now out of the descending channel, which is a very bearish sign. There is a Pin Bar made at the new swing low at the level of 1.2476, but so far there is not much bullish pressure on the market and the bears are still in full control of the market. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2559 and it might be tested soon due to the oversold market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2853

WR2 - 1.2772

WR1 - 1.2630

Weekly Pivot - 1.2551

WS1 - 1.2402

WS2 - 1.2319

WS3 - 1.2180

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2431 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 09/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has tested the technical support at the level of 1.1206 twice already, but no breakout below occurred so far. The price is getting closer to the level of 1.1181, which is the key technical support for the market. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1250.The momentum remains weak and negative, but due to the extremely oversold market conditions, there is a pull-back possibility towards the level of 1.1268. Nevertheless, the main trend is still to the downside despite the possible Ending Diagonal formation visible on the higher time-frames.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1467

WR2 - 1.1414

WR1 - 1.1302

Weekly Pivot - 1.1251

WS1 - 1.1141

WS2 - 1.1087

WS3 - 1.0908

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 9 - 2019

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GBP/JPY has continued to move higher. Now it is testing resistance at 126.27. We continue to look for a final dip closer to our target at 134.50 to complete wave 2 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3 above the 148.87 peak.

In the short-term, a break below minor support at 135.51 will confirm that the final dip towards 134.50 is unfolding.

R3: 137.24

R2: 136.89

R1: 136.30

Pivot: 136.05

S1: 135.75

S2: 135.35

S3: 135.00

Trading recommendation:

We continue to look for a buying opportunity at 134.65

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on July 9, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar declines for the fourth trading session as it approaches the accumulation of important technical support and the breakthrough of which opens room for market bears. The accumulation of these support levels around the level of 0.6938, where the balance lines, MACD and technical support for the price channel line on the daily scale graph are gathered. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is approaching the border with the territory of the downward trend. Visually, its transition to the zone of negative numbers coincides with the moment the price exits at 0.6938, which further enhances the importance of the moment.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is falling below the indicator lines of balance, MACD, and Marlin, which also indicates a decline in the trend.

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We are waiting for a price breakdown.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 9 - 2019

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EUR/JPY has continued to go higher and we now see short-term important support at 121.50. If EUR/JPY can stay above this support and conquer resistance at 122.24, then the upside is open for a continuation through 123.38 and above the 127.50 peak.

If, however, support at 121.50 is broken then a final dip closer to 121.00 should be expected. A break below support at 120.94 is highly undesirable as it will re-open the downside.

R3: 122.54

R2: 122.24

R1: 122.13

Pivot: 121.82

S1: 121.50

S2: 121.32

S3: 120.94

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.50 and we will move our stop higher to break-even at 121.50

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 9

Forecast for July 9:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1299, 1.1286, 1.1257, 1.1238, 1.1208, 1.1191, 1.1155 and 1.1129. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of June 28. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.1208 - 1.1191. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1155. We consider the level 1.1129 to be a potential value for the bottom, and after reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1238 - 1.1257. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1286. The range of 1.1286 - 1.1299 is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - a local downward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1238 Take profit: 1.1255

Buy 1.1258 Take profit: 1.1285

Sell: 1.1208 Take profit: 1.1192

Sell: 1.1189 Take profit: 1.1155

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2628, 1.2611, 1.2568, 1.2539, 1.2493, 1.2466 and 1.2412. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 25. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2493 - 1.2466. For the potential value at the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2412. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 1.2465.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2539 - 1.2568. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2611. The range 1.2611 - 1.2628 is a key support for the downward structure and to which, we expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2540 Take profit: 1.2566

Buy: 1.2570 Take profit: 1.2610

Sell: 1.2493 Take profit: 1.2467

Sell: 1.2464 Take profit: 1.2419

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0070, 1.0008, 0.9980, 0.9938, 0.9905, 0.9881, 0.9841 and 0.9810. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of June 25. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 0.9938. In this case, the goal is 0.9980. Price consolidation is in the corridor 0.9980 - 1.0008. Hence, there is a high probability of going into a correction. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.0070.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.9905 - 0.9881. Breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9841. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle at level 0.9810.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9939 Take profit: 0.9980

Buy : 0.9982 Take profit: 1.0008

Sell: 0.9905 Take profit: 0.9883

Sell: 0.9878 Take profit: 0.9844

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.09, 109.56, 109.21, 108.70, 108.29, 108.06 and 107.61. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 25. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 108.70. In this case, we expect a pronounced movement to the level of 109.21. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are in the corridor 109.21 - 109.56. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 110.09. The movement to which is expected at level 109.56 after the breakdown.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 108.29 - 108.06. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 107.61. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the ascending structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.70 Take profit: 109.20

Buy : 109.23 Take profit: 109.53

Sell: 108.29 Take profit: 108.06

Sell: 108.03 Take profit: 107.65

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3272, 1.3238, 1.3212, 1.3174, 1.3142, 1.3051, 1.3027 and 1.3001. Here, the price forms the potential for an upward movement of July 4. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 1.3142. In this case, the goal is 1.3174. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3175 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3212. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, is in the corridor 1.3212 - 1.3238. For the potential value of the top, we consider the level of 1.3272. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The level 1.3051 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to the level of 1.3027. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3001.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the upward trend of July 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3142 Take profit: 1.3172

Buy : 1.3176 Take profit: 1.3212

Sell: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.3028

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.3001

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7048, 0.7010, 0.6990, 0.6950, 0.6922, 0.6886 and 0.6863. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward cycle of July 4. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at level 0.6950. In this case, the goal is 0.6922, and near this level price consolidation. A breakdown at 0.6921 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.6886. The potential value for the downward trend is considered to be the level of 0.6863. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 0.6990 - 0.7010. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.7048.

The main trend - the formation of the potential for the downward movement of July 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6990 Take profit: 0.7008

Buy: 0.7013 Take profit: 0.7045

Sell : 0.6950 Take profit : 0.6925

Sell: 0.6920 Take profit: 0.6888

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.67, 121.41, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle of July 1. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after passing by the price of the noise range in 121.41 - 121.22. In this case the goal is 120.92. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48, and after reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidation is possible in the corridor 121.89 - 122.28. The level 122.28 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.22 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.31, 135.87, 135.65, 135.24, 134.99 and 134.50. Here, we continue to monitor the downward cycle from July 1. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.24 - 134.99. The breakdown of the last value will allow to expect movement towards a potential target - 134.50, and after reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 135.87 - 136.31. We expect the potential for the upward cycle to be formalized up to the level of 136.31.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.90 Take profit: 136.30

Sell: 135.24 Take profit: 135.00

Sell: 134.95 Take profit: 134.50

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro fell by 11 points, but did an important thing from a technical standpoint - it was fixed under the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the daily chart and below the trend line of the price channel. Now the path to the target level of 1.1155, defined as a market reaction by Fibonacci 110.0%. Marlin oscillator points to a strong bearish potential.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator did not try to jump into the growth zone, remaining in the territory of negative numbers. The price is steadily developing below the balance and MACD lines.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is speaking tonight on stress test, and probably won't touch monetary policy, as he will speak in the House of Representatives tomorrow. But today there are still scheduled speeches by Bullard, Quarls and Bostic, perhaps one of them will comment on the strong Friday employment data.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 9, 2019

GBP/USD

The situation on the British pound has not changed over the past day. Even the leading Marlin oscillator on the daily and H4 charts is preserved at yesterday's values. The current goal of the pound is the support of the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart, which coincides with the low of November 20, 2016.

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On the four-hour chart, the current convergence with the Marlin oscillator still remains, these remain the probability of price growth to the upper limit of the 1.2556 range (low of 3 July). To neutralize this formation, the marlin signal line should go under the azure-colored line, which in the price chart will correspond to a decline below Friday's low of 1.2480.

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So, after the price drops below 1.2480, the way to further pull down the British pound opens.

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USD/CHF approaching resistance, potential drop!

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USDCHF is approaching our first resistance where we might be seeing a drop below this level to our first support level.

Entry: 0.9965

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.0010

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance

Take Profit : 0.9890

Why it's good: Horizontal pullback support, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

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AUD/USD testing support, potential break out!

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AUDUSD is testing its support at 0.6961 where if broken, will give us a confirmation of a further move down. .

Entry: 0.6961

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss : 0.6990

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 0.6938

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

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USD/JPY approaching resistance, possible drop!

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Price is reaching resistance at 109.002, a drop could occur!

Entry :109.002

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 108.592

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support

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#USDX vs EUR / USD h4 vs GBP / USD h4. A comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 9, 2019. Analysis of APLs &

#USDX vs EUR / USD h4 vs GBP / USD H4 are in uncertainty, i.e. are within their equilibrium zones, respectively, the further development of the movement of the mentioned instruments from July 9, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of these zones. A comprehensive analysis is made below.

Minuette operating scale (H4)

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The US dollar Index

From July 09, 2019, the dollar index #USDX will continue to develop its movement depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.50 - 97.25 - 97.00) of the Minuette operational scale. The options for this movement are shown in the animation graph.

The breakdown of the support level of 97.00 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork) — a variant of the development of the downward movement of the dollar index to the targets — lower boundary ISL38.2 (96.90) Minuette operational scale fork — 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (96.48 - 96.28 - 96.08).

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 97.50) of the Minuette operating scale, it will be possible to continue the upward movement of #USDX to the local maximum of 97.77 with the prospect of reaching the final FSL Minuette line (98.30).

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Euro vs US Dollar

From July 9, 2019, the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the equilibrium zone (1.1258 - 1.1230 - 1.1200) of the Minuette operational scale. Look at the animation chart for the details of this movement.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.1258) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make current development of the movement of the single European currency to the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.1290) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, and during the breakdown, it can be continued to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.1315 - 1.1345 - 1.1370).

In the case of the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 1.1200) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the downward movement of EUR / USD will continue to the final FSL Minuette line (1.1107).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated graphic.

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

Her Majesty's currency GBP / USD continues to remain in the equilibrium zone (1.2535 - 1.2495 - 1.2450) of the Minuette operating scale, and accordingly, as further, from July 9, 2019, the movement of this currency instrument will develop and will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the levels above. Options are shown in the animated graphic.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.2535) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine that further upward movement of Her Majesty's currency which will continue to the initial SSL line (1.2560) of the Minuette operational scale, and during the breakdown thereof, it will move further to the boundaries of the 1 / 2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.2635 - 1.2665 - 1.2700).

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 1.2450) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it relevant to continue the development of the downward movement of GBP / USD to the targets - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.2435) - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.2385) - warning line LWL61.8 (1.2370) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in the animated graphic.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Stability in the global oil market despite tensions in the Middle East

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Oil prices have stabilized as Iran's hysteria around the nuclear program has been restrained by the more serious problems of global economic growth and, therefore, the demand for oil. Futures for the supply of Brent crude oil traded at 64.22 dollars per barrel. American WTI - 57.49 dollars per barrel. Iran threatened to resume uranium enrichment on Monday, undermining the 2015 nuclear agreement, which Washington refused. Trump imposed sanctions on Iran, which then agreed to limit its nuclear program under an agreement with leading world powers. On Sunday, Trump made another warning to Iran. "They better be careful," said the US leader. Nevertheless, the escalation of the conflict could not give impetus to the growth of the value of "black gold". Oil prices are still under pressure from concerns about demand. "The fact that the market responds so poorly to the tense situation in the Middle East is a reflection of a very well-secured market as a whole," noted SEB. The trade war between the United States and China overshadowed the prospects for global economic growth and, accordingly, the demand for oil. The growth rate of the global economy remains the focus of the entire market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar has maintained momentum, the Fed is likely to postpone the rate cut

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The dollar has confidently started a new week and keeps proximity near three-week highs, maintaining the momentum received after the release of strong data on employment in the US last week. A positive report may delay a sharp decline in the interest rate of the Fed. But the Turkish lira collapsed after Turkish President Recep Erdogan dismissed the head of the central bank, which caused yet another concern about the independence of the regulator. High US job growth is likely to deprive the Fed of a rate cut in late July, although weak wage growth and other data showing that the world's largest economy is losing momentum means that the Fed can still do so before the end of the year . That is why the dollar will continue to be traded on a more sustainable basis in the short term, given that the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased. The current recovery of the dollar follows a period of weakness, and the greenback has every chance to win.

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The euro, which fell to $1,1208 on Friday, was trading at $1,1227, unchanged during the day. The single currency is under pressure from the strengthening of the dollar and data on the weakness of the German industrial sector. Currently, traders are focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress, which will be held on Wednesday, as well as on data on inflation in the United States. The British pound reached a six-month low and is trading below $1.25 after weak economic data and rising expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates in 2020. The Turkish lira dropped to 5.8245 dollars, the lowest rate in two weeks. "Some naive market participants may still hope that the new governor of the central bank of Turkey will be independent and, at least, will not immediately lower interest rates. This may be the case, but it does not change the fact that a medium-term reasonable monetary policy in Turkey is not possible," analysts at Commerzbank say.

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EUR/USD: Fed will run the show this week

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At the end of last week, the greenback rose sharply in price against the background of the release of a strong report on the US labor market in June. The USD index rose above the level of 97 points, reaching its highest levels in the last three weeks. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair slipped to the area of 1.1220.

This week, traders will focus on the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress, as well as the publication of the minutes from the June meetings of the Fed and the ECB.

The main idea in the market is still the question of the further monetary course of the two leading central banks.

At the end of the last FOMC meeting, J. Powell said that interest rates would remain unchanged for the time being. At the same time, he hinted that if foreign trade conflicts continue to restrain economic growth in the country, the regulator will have to soften its monetary policy.

Prior to the publication last Friday of a strong report on the US labor market, which exceeded forecasts for the number of new jobs (NFP), many economists believed that at the July meeting the Fed would reduce rates by at least 25 basis points.

However, NFP grew more than 3 times. It turns out that the US economy is not so bad. The question is, why then should the US central bank pursue a policy of easing and giving away cheap money?

Investors will try to hear the answer to this question from the Fed Chairman in the coming days, as well as see the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, which will be published this Wednesday.

The June reports on producer and consumer prices in the US, which will be released this week, can also help clarify the situation for investors. If the price pressure continues to decline, then expectations about the rate cuts by the Fed will increase. It is possible that the regulator may implement a one-time reduction in rates without plans to further mitigate the policy. However, we will not know what decision the FOMC members will take until the next meeting, which will be held in late July.

"Convincing labor market data may not be enough to force the Fed to change its mind about cutting rates after the meeting in July. However, recent employment data may allow the regulator to take a short pause. Some members of the FOMC may vote at the next meeting for keeping rates unchanged," said Wells Fargo currency strategist Brandon McKenna.

On Thursday, the ECB will release its report from the June monetary policy meeting. From the European regulator, the market is waiting for additional measures to stimulate the EU economy.

It is assumed that the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed may weaken the dollar, similar actions by the ECB - pull down the euro. It is unclear as to which direction the scales will swing to.

Now the greenback continues to strengthen, including in relation to the euro, even despite a possible softening of the Fed's position, since the US economy still looks better than the competition. In addition, there are no threats to the US economy in the short term, and the White House's trade policy, despite criticism, has made investments in the country more attractive than investment abroad.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. July 8. Results of the day. Pound sterling is waiting for July 23 and October 31

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 74p - 64p - 43p - 25p - 107p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 63p (56p).

The British pound sterling collapsed on Friday, July 5, down, just like the euro, after the publication of US NonFarm Payrolls. However, it spent Monday in a fairly calm way, since no important news and reports on this day came from either the UK or the United States. Thus, it is possible to state a fact: a correction has begun, which so far has lateral status. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson intensely announced the hard scenario of Brexit, even though he has not yet become the country's prime minister. It is quite possible that this is a strategy of pressure on the European Union, which does not wish to conduct new negotiations on the terms of Brexit. It is unknown whether this card will play Johnson, but the pound in any case is not particularly responsive to all these campaign promises and events around Brexit, which is tightly put on pause. The nearest important date for the pound is in July 23. Not even for the pound, but for the UK, because on this day, in theory, the new leader of both the Conservatives and the country should be named. The date of the UK's exit from the European Union is on October 31st. A new release date. At this time, the impact of Brexit on the pound sterling is minimal.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair has begun a side correction. Thus, traders are advised to wait until it is completed and re-sell the pound sterling with a target at the first support level of 1.2435.

It will be possible to buy the British currency no earlier than when the pair consolidates above the critical line. In this case, the bulls will get a small chance to form an upward trend.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. July 8. Results of the day. Does the Fed need to lower the rate?

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 90p - 47p - 44p - 22p - 81p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 57p (49p).

The first trading day of the current week, as expected, ends without sudden movements and with minimal volatility. No important macroeconomic reports were published today. Thus, traders had nothing to react to in a fundamental way. Tomorrow, Jerome Powell will give a speech in Congress, and in the meantime the markets are discussing possible actions by the Fed in the light of the strong Nonfarm Payrolls report in the United States. However, now the situation is turning against the US dollar. Just a week ago, we wrote that we should not rush to conclusions and expect the Fed to reduce the key rate in the coming months only on the basis of 3-4 weeks of weak macroeconomic statistics from overseas. Now we can say that we should not rush to conclusions because of one positive report from the United States. The best solution in this situation is to trade according to incoming information. Jerome Powell, of course, may shed light this week on the dark spot of the Fed's future actions. However, he is unlikely to do it. Like traders, the Fed responds to economic reports, to news about the external economy and US policy. Precisely, a decision will be made on easing monetary policy depending on the nature of this news. Thus, the euro remains in a downstream direction for the time being and there are no reasons for traders to buy the single currency. Perhaps they will appear tomorrow, but for this Powell should by all means hint at the willingness of the regulator to soften the monetary policy in July or September. We believe that his speech in Congress will be more neutral.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move down. Thus, it is again recommended to buy the dollar with a target of 1.1165. Prerequisites for the purchase of the euro is not available now.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair no earlier than when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line with the first target resistance level at 1.1329. However, bulls will need fundamental reasons for this.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com