EUR/USD. Big dollar sale: greenback's problems are systemic

The dollar index showed signs of a correction after updating another multi-month low (the indicator fell to 92.140 points) during the Asian session on Wednesday. The corrective growth is sluggish and uncertain – the US currency is still under pressure from many fundamental factors, while the price pullback is more related to technical reasons. After the momentum began to fade, many traders began to take profits, thanks to which the greenback was able to slow down its fall and even win back some of the lost positions. But this is only a respite, since today's fundamental picture is almost the same as yesterday. The dollar has no arguments for a large-scale recovery, which means that the downward movement will continue for the currency.

US political events set the tone of trading on the currency market. Macroeconomic reports goes second, if not to the third plan: for example, traders completely ignored the strong data on the US housing market – the volume of new construction suddenly increased by 22% in July, significantly exceeding the forecast values. However, the dollar ignored this release yesterday. Previously published reports of a key nature also did not help dollar bulls – the greenback remained indifferent to the growth of US inflation and strong Nonfarm. Therefore, it is not surprising that the market also ignores other macroeconomic releases.

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But the statements of a political nature provoke a fairly strong volatility in dollar pairs. The focus is on the domestic American showdown and the prospects for trade talks between the United States and China. The US presidential campaign serves as a background to these two factors. The strengthening of US President Donald Trump's electoral positions has made its own adjustments - now his statements are considered from a slightly different angle. If he was perceived by many as "a pensioner without five minutes" (he lagged behind Joe Biden by 14-15%) at the beginning of summer, now Trump is viewed through the prism of his increased rating.

According to the latest polls, 50% of respondents expressed their readiness to vote for the Democrats. Meanwhile, 48% of those polled are ready to vote for Trump and incumbent Vice President Michael Pence. In other words, the intrigue of the upcoming US elections remains, and given the specifics of the American electoral system, it is too early to write off the incumbent president. Moreover, according to American political scientists, the published figures did not reflect the positive effect of Trump's recent decisions. We are talking about Trump signing executive orders bypassing Congress, thanks to which unemployed Americans began to receive additional payments again. The last electoral poll was conducted even before these events, therefore, it did not reflect the reaction of potential voters.

It would seem that American opinion polls should have a very indirect influence on the sentiments of traders in the foreign exchange market. But Trump's rise has coincided with an increase in anti-Chinese rhetoric on his part. And not only rhetoric, but also very specific actions. Recently, the American president admitted that following ByteDance, which owns the TikTok service, other Chinese companies operating in the United States may also be under threat. In particular, he did not rule out that restrictions may be introduced against the giant Alibaba Group. In addition, the United States expanded sanctions against Chinese Huawei: Washington imposed restrictive measures against 38 subsidiaries of this company. The Department of Commerce has also extended the amendments under which foreign companies using US-made chip-making equipment must obtain a US license before supplying certain chips to Huawei. I would like to note that the announced sanctions are just the tip of the iceberg. Before that, there was the Hong Kong issue, sanctions for oppressing the rights of Uighurs in China, coronavirus charges and accusations of espionage.

Traders also recalled Trump's threats that if he is re-elected for a second term, negotiations with Beijing on the conclusion of the second phase of the trade deal "will be much tougher." According to some analysts, in this case, next year the trade war between the superpowers may resume with renewed vigor. Trump just made it clear that he is not going to contact Beijing anytime soon, postponing trade talks with China. He said he "does not want to talk to this country now" and canceled the meeting of the negotiating groups. Formally, because of the coronavirus pandemic, which he accuses China of spreading.

Another factor also exerts pressure on the dollar, which is also associated with the domestic political American topic. We are talking about a long-suffering bill to provide additional assistance to the US economy. Last week, the market exaggerated information that the parties can again sit down at the negotiating table and compromise (in particular, the Democrats expressed their readiness to reduce the volume of the bill from 3 to 2 trillion dollars). But yesterday, a representative of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in an interview with one of the TV channels said that the president still insists on passing the bill in its original form. At the same time, he categorically rejected the idea of increasing its volume to two trillion dollars. All this suggests that the bill will remain a bill for the foreseeable future.

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Thus, the dollar's problems are, so to speak, systemic, political in nature. The dollar will fall if Trump's rating continues to grow, and his rhetoric towards China continues to tighten. The greenback will also be under pressure if Democrats and Republicans never sit down to negotiate the mentioned bill. At the same time, macroeconomic reports will play a secondary role.

Speaking directly about the EUR/USD pair, here we see an unsuccessful attempt to storm the resistance level of 1.1940 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). A corrective pullback follows, as a rule, after such impulsive movements: in this case, up to the bottom of the 19th figure. Long positions towards 1.1940 and/or a more ambitious 1.2000 target can be considered in this price area.

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Fuel demand outlook sours due to suspension of travel

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Fuel demand worsens after a number of countries suspends international travel due to coronavirus. Unfortunately, such leads to a slow global economic recovery.

Nonetheless, OPEC + plans to leave most of the suspended production by the end of the year - about 7.7 million barrels per day, maybe more.

Even Saudi Arabia has announced that supplies returned in August, or rather most of them, will be used domestically rather than exported.

Since the market is still very vulnerable, the Saudis are trying to exert maximum pressure on other OPEC + member countries to comply with their obligations.

A joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is scheduled to be held on Wednesday, and the issue of meeting the commitments will be high on the agenda.

Countries who constantly cheat on quotas, such as Iraq and Nigeria, have pledged to introduce additional reductions as compensation for their violation.

On August 7, Baghdad and Riyadh issued a joint statement on the promised cut of 400,000 bpd by Iraq in September and August, in excess of what they should have already produced.

But so far, these are only promises, and none of the laggards provided the rules required by the treaty.

Meanwhile, Nigeria is trying to implement its desire for one of its oil varieties to be treated not as crude oil, but as condensate, in order to be freed from production quotas.

Iraq has proven to be more honest than Nigeria and has complied with nearly 80% of the reductions stipulated by the agreement.

"Iraq is moving forward and has chosen the right direction," said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC, "but given the very difficult economic situation and the circumstances, compensation can be very time-consuming," she added.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 19, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of 1.3265 after the strong breakout above the level of 1.3199. The next target is seen at the level of 1.3283 and as long as the level of 1.2979 is not clearly violated, all the down waves will be treated just as a pull-backs, not a correction. However, it is worth to notice, that the market coditions are now overbought despite strong and positive momentum, so the potential pull-back might be just around the corner. The levels of 1.3183 - 1.3169 will now act as a demand zone for GBP bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3292

WR2 - 1.3216

WR1 - 1.3155

Weekly Pivot - 1.3068

WS1 - 1.3000

WS2 - 1.2930

WS3 - 1.2880

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, the recent rally form the multi-year lows seen at the level of 1.1404 has been successful and the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404.

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 08/19/20

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The EUR/USD currency pair has been moving within the borders of the side channel 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910, (6 + 5 + 4, lines) for almost a month, where, as a result, the upper border still decline under the pressure of buyers, and the quote managed to consolidate above 1.1910. The tactics of working on the breakout of the established boundaries, which we adhered to in previous reviews, brought us a profit, but this is just the beginning.

If we consider the side channel (lines 4, 5 and 6) as a platform for regrouping trading forces in the course of an upward trend, then the previously set channel from trend lines 1, 2 and 3 may become relevant again.

Following from the analysis of trend lines and the general insistence of the market, it can be assumed that if the price consolidates above the high of the previous day - 1.1965, the upward movement will resume towards the trend line No. 2 (area 1.2000), where it is possible to stop with the subsequent price pullback.

Alternative scenarios of market development consider the current slowdown in the values of 1.1930/1.1965 as an opportunity to return to the previous sideways movement if the price consolidates below 1.1910, trend line No. 4.

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The GBP/USD currency pair followed the path of the European currency, breaking the upper border of the side channel 1.2985 // 1.3085 // 1.3185 (No. 6; 5; 4) and having a strong price movement towards the local maximum of 1.3263, where a small stagnation of 1.3230/1.3263 was formed.

Based on the dynamics and the breakdown of the upper border of the side channel, it can be assumed that the market participants are still relevant positions to buy the pound sterling against the dollar, where if the price consolidates above 1.3270, a further move towards resistance level 1.3300 is not excluded.

Alternative scenarios of market development consider the current deceleration in the values of 1.3230/1.3263 as an opportunity to return to the previous sideways movement if the price consolidates below 1.3230.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 19, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken out from a narrow consolidation zone located between the levels of 1.1696 - 1.1915 and made a new swing high at the level of 1.1965. The recent wave up had been made on strong momentum, but the market conditions are now overbought, so a pull back might be just around a corner. Moreover, the last push up has ended with a Doji candlestick pattern, which is a potential trend reversal signal. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1880. The key technical resistance is the level of 1.1915 and if violated, then the next target is seen at 1.1962 and 1.2000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2065

WR2 - 1.1962

WR1 - 1.1908

Weekly Pivot - 1.1808

WS1 - 1.1753

WS2 - 1.1661

WS3 - 1.1600

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by 8 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 3 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 19, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Bulgarian authorities arrested two men for illegal use of electricity, worth more than $ 1.5 million, to operate two cryptocurrency mining farms.

According to press releases, two men have been detained in connection with the theft of $ 1.5 million of electricity used to mine Bitcoin in the small town of Kyustendil. Representatives of the Regional Directorate of the Ministry of the Interior and CEZ Electro Bulgaria spoke at a press conference in which they stated that two Sofia Bulgarians, aged 31 and 38, had been caught transferring energy to their two illegal cryptocurrency farms for 3-6 months. However, evidence suggests mining equipment has been there for over a year.

CEZ deputy director Philip Yordanov said it was the "biggest theft" of electricity the company had ever discovered. The stolen amount would be enough to power the neighboring town for about a month. Two men were detained by the police for 24 hours and then released pending trial.

Unscrupulous cryptocurrency miners in many countries have tried to pull energy from the grid as more and more people become aware of the profitability of tokens. One of the biggest thefts took place in China in July 2019, when 22 suspects were arrested after similar involvement in an illegal cryptocurrency mining farm that consumed $ 3 million in stolen electricity.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the ETH/USD pair had made a new swing high at the level of $447.26 the profit taking action has begun, which in effect pushed the ETH market through the technical support at $430.71 and $414.11. Currently, the bears has hit the technical support at the level of $407.03, which is very close to the 50% retracement level of the last wave up, so some kind of bounce might be expected here. If not, then the next target is seen at the level of $396.47 (61% Fibonacci retracement). Nevertheless, all the bigger time frame charts looks very bullish and the up trend should be continued after the supposed correction is completed.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $542.08

WR2 - $493.82

WR1 - $466.95

Weekly Pivot - $411.50

WS1 - $387.37

WS2 - $337.80

WS3 - $311.68

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $364.95.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the GBP/USD pair on August 19

Trading recommendations for GBP / USD on August 19

Analysis of transactions

Bulls took control of the market, so the GBP / USD rate continues to climb higher and higher in the price chart. Buy deals at the price level of 1.3141 towards the level of 1.3175 even brought profit of about 30 pips.

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The sharp rise in the pound came after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that there is no expected progress in the negotiations between Republicans and Democrats with regards to a new stimulus package.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches a price level of 1.3250 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.3294 (thicker green line on the chart). The increase may occur on the grounds of good UK inflation data. Take profit at the level of 1.3294.
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches the level of 1.3208 (red line on the chart). However, such a drop will only occur if UK inflation comes out worse than forecasts, and if the latest Fed protocol does not give additional pressure on the US dollar. Nonetheless, the target level is 1.3151, which is also a good area to exit the market.
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GBP/USD Intraday Projection High and Low Of The Day For August 19, 2020

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The intraday high and low from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) usually form at STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market but sometimes they can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 during the high volatility in the market. Here are today's levels:

STDV 10 - 1.3498.

STDV 9 - 1.3474.

STDV 8 - 1.3450.

STDV 7 - 1.3426.

STDV 6 - 1.3402.

STDV 5 - 1.3378.

STDV 4 - 1.3354.

STDV 3 - 1.3330.

STDV 2 - 1.3306.

STDV 1 - 1.3282.

CBDR - 1.3258.

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CBDR - 1.3234.

STDV 1 - 1.3210.

STDV 2 - 1.3186.

STDV 3 - 1.3162.

STDV 4 - 1.3138.

STDV 5 - 1.3115.

STDV 6 - 1.3090.

STDV 7 - 1.3066.

STDV 8 - 1.3042.

STDV 9 - 1.3018.

STDV 10 - 1.2994.

Pay attention to the previous day high 1.3249 and to the previous day low 1.3096.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 19 (analyzing yesterday's trades). Pound updates next year highs amid the

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Buyers of the British pound continue to break through large resistance levels one by one, taking advantage of the general weakness of the US dollar and completely forgetting about the problems they will face this fall, when talks on a trade deal with the EU begin, and options for easing monetary credit, policies and new measures to stimulate the economy will be discussed.

If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the first sales from the 1.3181 level brought about 30 points, and there was already a breakout on the second test of this area, which led to updating the next high of 1.3228, from where I also recommended opening short positions immediately on the rebound. After a breakout and settling above the resistance of 1.3181 in the afternoon, the probability of which I paid attention to in my review, there was a slight overtrade which resulted in forming another entry point to buy the pound along the trend. Now the bulls are focused on breaking the new resistance of 1.3260, settling at this level forms a signal to buy GBP/USD in the hope of updating the next monthly highs in the area of 1.3316 and 1.3375. However, today's UK inflation data could weaken the bullish momentum, so in case the pair falls in the first half of the day, it is best to wait for an update to the support of 1.3212 and open long positions from it in the hope of continuing the bullish trend. There are also moving averages. Buy GBP/USD immediately on the rebound, I recommend doing so only from the low of 1.3173, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the previous week showed a reduction in short non-commercial positions from the level of 60,704 to the level of 59,874. On the contrary, long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 45,977 to the level of 48,053. As a result, the non-commercial net position again decreased its negative value to -2,821, against -14,727. This suggests that the market trend is about to change in the near future and buyers of the pound will have control in the medium term.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound can only count on weak figures for inflation in the UK, which will slightly ease the pressure on buyers. A false breakout being formed along with a bad report will be the first signal to sell the pound in anticipation of updating the support of 1.3212. A more distant goal will be the low of 1.3173, where the lower border of the Bollinger indicator passes and where I recommend taking profits. If the actions continue to develop in a bullish scenario, and sellers do not show themselves above the resistance of 1.3260, I recommend that you postpone short positions until the high of 1.3316 has been tested, or sell GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from the larger resistance of 1.3375 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bull market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

Growth will be limited in the area of the upper border of the indicator 1.3285. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3173.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 19, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, is working with law enforcement agencies in Ukraine to tackle large-scale money laundering operations.

Working with the stock exchange, the Ukrainian cyber police identified and arrested a group of criminals involved in a $ 42 million ransomware and money laundering operation. According to the report, the criminal group has laundered millions of dollars in cryptocurrencies since 2018. A Binance representative said all suspects were Ukrainian citizens and were arrested in June 2020. The group operated mainly in Ukraine, but was also involved in several cyberattacks on a global scale. The Ombudsman refused to provide additional information on the size of the group or other persons and entities involved.

An effective investigation takes place shortly after Binance began working with Ukrainian law enforcement agencies in early 2020.

The investigation is part of the so-called Binance project "Bulletproof Exchangers", which aims to track transactions between Binance and high-risk entities. These kinds of investigations are mainly conducted by Binance's internal risk intelligence unit known as Binance Sentry, as well as by the analytics division, Security Data Science.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has reverses all the recent gains above the $12,000 and is moving lower towards the technical support located at the level of $11,646. Any clear violation of this level will result in sell-off acceleration towards the next technical support seen at the level of $11,220. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $11,855. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,201

WR2 - $12,569

WR1 - $12,222

Weekly Pivot - $11,635

WS1 - $11,298

WS2 - $10,689

WS3 - $10,325

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic correction are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,463.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 19 (analyzing yesterday's trades). Breakthrough of annual highs, new wave

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday's breakthrough of the resistance at 1.1912, to which buyers of the euro were already getting close, led to a new large wave of the pair's growth. If you look at the 5-minute chart and recall yesterday's review, you will see how euro buyers broke above 1.1912 after an unsuccessful attempt to arrange a downward correction from the 1.1912 level, which resulted in removing stop orders and a powerful bullish momentum to the area of a new high of 1.1963, which they will have to deal with today. However, a more interesting scenario for buying the euro in the first half of the day is forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.1920, where the moving averages are located. Good data on inflation in the eurozone will allow you to form the right entry point into long positions, which will definitely return EUR/USD to the resistance level of 1.1963, which the bulls can take up in the afternoon. If the upward movement already resumes in the European session, then a breakout and settling above 1.1963 will form a good entry point into long positions to continue the bullish trend. The goal will be new highs of 1.1994 and 1.2022, where I recommend taking profits.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for August 11 continued to record the growth of long positions and the reduction of short ones, which tells us about the continued interest of investors in risky assets, even at such high prices, as many bet on a further weakening of the US dollar. Problems are also being added due to disagreements in the US Congress on the further approval of financial assistance to the unemployed, as well as the aggravation of US trade relations with China and the EU. The report shows an increase in long non-commercial positions from the level of 262,109 to the level of 266,078, while short non-commercial positions decreased from 81,461 to 66,327. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position sharply jumped to 199,751, up from 180,648 a week earlier, indicating an increase in interest in buying risky assets.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need to keep the resistance of 1.1963, as there are no other options for them yet. Forming a false breakout there, along with a weak report on inflation in the eurozone, will bring down the aggressive upward potential of the European currency. An unsuccessful breakout and returning to the 1.1963 level will be a signal to open short positions, the first goal of which is the support of 1.1920, where the average moving averages that play on the side of euro buyers are kept. The 1.1884 area will be the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD grows further according to the trend formed on August 12, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1994 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day, or sell the pair from the high of 1.2022.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continued growth of the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1963 may result in the euro's growth. In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1890 area, from which you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair on August 19

Trading recommendations for EUR / USD on August 19

Analysis of transactions

Bulls were active at the level of 1.1895 yesterday, as a result of which the quote reached the target level of 1.1933. Such brought profit of about 35 pips within the day.

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This sharp rise in the euro came after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that there was no expected progress in the negotiations between Republicans and Democrats with regards to a new stimulus package.

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  • Set up buy deals when the quote reaches the price level of 1.1954 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise towards the level of 1.1999. The increase may occur, on the grounds of good inflation data in the eurozone. Take profit at the level of 1.1999.
  • Meanwhile, sell positions after the quote hits a price level of 1.1911 (red line on the chart), aiming a drop to a price of 1.1858. However, such a scenario has a low chance of occurring since aside from inflation data, the latest Fed protocol will also be published today, the contents of which is forecast to put additional pressure on the US dollar. Nonetheless, take profit at the level of 1.1858.
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EUR/USD: Intraday High and Low Projection For August 19, 2020

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The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) on this date are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under normal market conditions, but sometimes the pair can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 under higher volatility in the market. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.2161.

STDV 9 - 1.2140.

STDV 8 - 1.2119.

STDV 7 - 1.2098.

STDV 6 - 1.2077.

STDV 5 - 1.2056.

STDV 4 - 1.2035.

STDV 3 - 1.2014.

STDV 2 - 1.1993.

STDV 1 - 1.1972.

CBDR - 1.1951.

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CBDR - 1.1930.

STDV 1 - 1.1909.

STDV 2 - 1.1888.

STDV 3 - 1.1867.

STDV 4 - 1.1846.

STDV 5 - 1.1825.

STDV 6 - 1.1804.

STDV 7 - 1.1783.

STDV 8 - 1.1762.

STDV 9 - 1.1741.

STDV 10 - 1.1720.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.2118, 1.2035, 1.1783 as well as the previous Day High 1.1966 with the Previous Day Low 1.1867. All these levels can be a potential pivot point.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Intraday High and Low Projection For August 19, 2020

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The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) on this date are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under normal market conditions, but sometimes the pair can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 under higher volatility in the market. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.2161.

STDV 9 - 1.2140.

STDV 8 - 1.2119.

STDV 7 - 1.2098.

STDV 6 - 1.2077.

STDV 5 - 1.2056.

STDV 4 - 1.2035.

STDV 3 - 1.2014.

STDV 2 - 1.1993.

STDV 1 - 1.1972.

CBDR - 1.1951.

==================

CBDR - 1.1930.

STDV 1 - 1.1909.

STDV 2 - 1.1888.

STDV 3 - 1.1867.

STDV 4 - 1.1846.

STDV 5 - 1.1825.

STDV 6 - 1.1804.

STDV 7 - 1.1783.

STDV 8 - 1.1762.

STDV 9 - 1.1741.

STDV 10 - 1.1720.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.2118, 1.2035, 1.1783 as well as the previous Day High 1.1966 with the Previous Day Low 1.1867. All these levels can be a potential pivot point.

(Disclaimer)

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Euro will rise, but not as much as previously expected (EUR/USD GBP/USD is very likely to continue to grow after the correction)

The main currency pair euro/dollar resumed its rally on Tuesday in the wake of strong data on the US economy, which came from the construction market. It managed to overcome the strong resistance level of 1.1900.

Can EUR/USD continue to rise in the current environment?

It can be recalled that the single currency began to receive noticeable support after the EU managed to agree on the creation of a recovery fund with financial capacity in the amount of 750 billion euros this summer. These measures have ruled out the possibility of defaults on the debts of entire EU member states at least in the near future. In addition, the strengthening of the single currency coincided with an increase in demand for risky assets on the wave of hopes that the coronavirus infection will weaken in its impact on the global economy. In addition, positive production data for the euro area was a positive development.

It seems that all the conditions for a non-stop rally in the euro in the currency markets are fully met. But everything is not so simple here. Of course, the main competitor of the euro, the US dollar, is completely knockout, beaten by unprecedented stimulus measures from the Fed and the US Treasury, as well as remaining under pressure on the wave of rising demand for risky assets in the United States itself and due to the resumption of its function as a currency-funding.

We believe that the current state of affairs will contribute to the strengthening of the Euro currency in the market, but only against the US currency. And this process will gain impulse. However, it is hardly worth expecting that the ECB will calmly look at this picture.

Why will euro growth be limited?

It should be noted that the euro/dollar pair rose to 1.4000 in 2014, followed by a noticeable addition to the imbalance that appeared on the market, which was expressed in the strongest weakening of the dollar by stimulus programs from the Federal Reserve and keeping the ECB's interest rates quite high at that time. It all ended with the fact that European goods began to lose to American ones on the world market due to the high rate of the euro. This was the reason for radical measures from the regulator, which eventually collapsed the rate of the euro against the dollar to 1.0350. So, something similar can happen when this pair's rate approaches the level of 1.2500. But then, the ECB will be extremely difficult to change the situation, because it does not have any instruments to lower the currency rate. The rates are already at zero or even lower levels, and stimulus measures do not make the currency cheaper like the American one. From here, we can expect serious problems in the eurozone economy with all the ensuing negative consequences. In principle, we can talk about the level of discomfort for the European economy, which starts above 1.1500 while it is growing at the expense of internal reserves - deferred demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, but this will end soon.

What to expect from EURUSD?

We believe that it will receive support in the near future, but as it approaches the level of 1.2100, it will experience difficulties with an increase due to its high value against the dollar, which will impede foreign trade. We also believe that our model provides for a noticeable rebound of the pair from the level of 1.2500 with a strong corrective decline. The price approaching this level will force the ECB to take more decisive measures to weaken the euro, otherwise, the European economy will return again to a period of confusion and vacillation with all the ensuing negative phenomena.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is moving around above the 1.1900 level. It can adjust to it. And if it holds above this level, it will continue to rise to the level of 1.2000.

The GBP/USD pair continues to follow in the wake of the main currency pair. It can also correct down to 1.3200, and if it holds above this level, it will continue to rise to the level of 1.3365.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on August 19? Plan for opening and closing trades

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair started a weak downward correction during night trading. The current correction is only 35 points, if you count from yesterday's high. Therefore, we believe that the downward movement should continue to the trend line today. The MACD indicator has turned down, but the histogram and signal line values are still very high. The specifics of working with this indicator is that the lower the upward trend is reversed, the better. Now, it is simply difficult for the indicator to move up, and it may be too late to react to the resumption of the upward trend. However, novice traders still have an ascending trend line at their disposal, which means that you are advised to not consider sales in any case at the moment. Moreover, the price broke out of the side channel in which it had been trading for three weeks before.

One relatively important event each for the European Union and America is planned for August 18, which we advise novice traders to consider. The EU will release the consumer price index for July in the morning, which has a forecast of +0.4% y.y and +1.2% y/y (base). Core inflation is inflation that does not take into account changes in prices for food and fuel, since these goods are very volatile (often change in price) or seasonal (their price depends on the season). Thus, core inflation is a more accurate indicator of the rate of price growth in any country. However, in any case, if the report turns out to be better than forecasts, then traders will have new reasons to buy the European currency, which is growing now and without the help of news. The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) will be released in the evening. This event is interesting because it can reflect the mood of members of the Fed's Monetary Committee (it manages monetary policy) and contain hints about future policy changes. For example, it may contain hints about a change in the key rate or a change in the amount of further economic stimulus. However, in most cases, this document does not contain any fundamentally new information. This document will be released very late in the evening, so it will be possible to conduct an analysis immediately around the time of its release. As for the overall fundamental picture, traders continue to get rid of the US dollar based on the overall negative economic and political background. We advise novice traders to continue studying the US news feeds to keep up with what is happening in this country. As you can see, this is reflected on the chart of the euro/dollar currency pair.

The following scenarios are possible on August 19:

1) Buying the pair remains relevant on Tuesday, as the price continues to be above the trend line. The price is currently correcting after yesterday's significant growth. Therefore, it is recommended to consider a reversal of the MACD indicator or a rebound from the trend line itself as today's buy signals. If one of these conditions is met, it will be possible to count on the resumption of the upward movement with the targets of 1.1975 and 1.2020.

2) But we recommend to start selling the pair, but not before breaking the upward trend line, which we slightly rebuilt (note). If the price settles below the trend line by the end of the hour, this will mean a reversal of the trend for the euro/dollar pair and we will recommend opening short positions with targets at 1.1876 and 1.1822. We still believe that the euro is growing with the last bit of strength and the moment is approaching when sellers will go on the attack.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports (you can always find them in the news calendar) can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that not every single trade should be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 19, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro finally came to terms regarding its direction on Tuesday, following two weeks of being in the uncertain zone of 1.1712-1.1905. It chose an upward direction against the background of established risk sentiment. The US stock index S&P 500 broke the pre-crisis high, setting a historical record of 3395. Restrictive stops of euro sellers at levels from 1.1900 were closed, the single currency received an additional boost for growth. Now its nearest target is the 1.2040/55 range, then the 1.2155 level – the March 1, 2018 low. The Marlin oscillator sluggishly moves up, which on the technical side preserves the probability of forming a double divergence after the price rises to 1.2155.

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The price develops above the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin slowly moves up, and the local growth keeps the trend. We are waiting for the euro in the area of the first target of 1.2040/55.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 19, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to grow abnormally against the five-fold divergence of the price and the oscillator. When the price overcomes the next bullish level of 0.7296 (January 2019 high), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator will go above its forming line and the divergence will dissolve into the overall long-term picture, transforming into a wedge-shaped structure. Therefore, if the aussie does not turn around from 0.7296, the next target will be the 0.7390 level – the high of December 2018.

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The price settled above the target level of 0.7240 (peaks on August 5 and 7) on the four-hour chart and is ready to reach the nearest target of 0.7296. The Marlin oscillator still has growth potential, it is not in the overbought zone.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on August 19, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar-yen pair fell by 58 points on Tuesday, having reached support for the embedded line of the price channel. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone, but it is already showing the first signs of a reversal. Given the increased interest in risk in the stock markets (S&P 500 set a historical record of 3,395 yesterday), the yen might not move towards the 104.60 target and leaving support may turn out to be false, as it was on August 5-6 (highlighted by a gray oval). If the price settles above 105.45, we expect the pair to grow to the upper target of 106.70.

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The Marlin oscillator begins to turn up on the four-hour chart. To continue moving, the price needs to gain a foothold above the 105.45 level. The MACD line in the 106.15 area could be an obstacle for the price to rise to the 106.70 target on the daily chart, where it can grow before meeting the price. Overcoming this resistance will give the dollar additional strength.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on August 19. COT report. EU inflation report and FED meeting minutes

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair continued its upward movement on the hourly timeframe of August 18, breaking the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1910, which allowed buyers to continue to put pressure on the pair. Thus, the quotes reached the resistance level of 1.1958 by the end of the trading day, which is the second target this week. But most importantly, now we can say that the price has left the side channel, which means that the upward trend has resumed. At the same time, we remind traders that the price has not been able to adjust properly for the past three weeks, so the dollar remains firmly oversold. This means that the upward trend can end at any time. However, we still have an upward trend line at our disposal, which greatly helps in determining the current trend.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both channels of linear regression are still directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, since the mood of traders at the beginning of the new week has not changed. Last Friday, a new Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released. According to this report, non-commercial traders reopened Buy-contracts and closed Sell-deals. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders, which is the most important and category of traders, has grown again, this time by 15,000 contracts, which is a high value (5,128 Buy-contracts were opened and 9,681 Sell-contracts were closed). Hence, the conclusion is that the mood of large traders has not changed at all over the past week. In principle, the same conclusion can be drawn by looking at the chart of the euro/dollar currency pair itself. The pair has been in the side channel since July 27, that is, for three weeks, after which the upward movement resumed. During all this time, traders managed to adjust the pair by a maximum of 200 points down, which is very little to be reflected in the COT report. At the same time, the euro continues to rise in price, and COT reports are likely to continue to show an increase in bullish sentiment.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was extremely weak on Tuesday. No important macroeconomic reports were published that day, however, the dollar resumed to sharply fall for no apparent reason. However, the overall fundamental situation in America remains such that the next fall in the US dollar is not surprising. Traders will focus their attention on inflation in the European Union on Wednesday, the forecast for which is very low. Thus, it will not be difficult to surpass it, given the recovery of the European economy. At the same time, the euro has already risen in price quite strongly and at least a slight correction is needed. Thus, we believe that tomorrow, in almost any case, a correction to the trend line will begin, which the price may even try to overcome. Markets participants are unlikely to take note of tonight's release of the Fed minutes.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 19:

1) Buyers stepped up their trading on Tuesday and again took the initiative into their own hands. The pair has reached the 1.1958 level, so we recommend buying the euro again while aiming for 1.2051 if traders overcome the target. In this case, the potential Take Profit will be about 80 points.

2) Bears could not go below the 1.1715 level, and now they still have to overcome the trend line in order to count on at least a small drop in the pair. We recommend opening sales after overcoming the support area of 1.1886-1.1910 and the upward trend line with the first target, the Senkou Span B line (1.1805). In this case, the potential Take Profit will be about 50 points.

We recommend that you also explore the fundamental background in these articles:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 19. "Neither fish nor fowl". Americans are going to vote for Biden not because he is good, but because Trump is bad.

Review of the GBP/USD pair. August 19. The US and China are in conflict again, this time over Huawei. The dollar falls back into the abyss and remains extremely oversold.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 19. The US and China are in conflict again, this time over Huawei. The dollar falls

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 262.6622

The British pound, following the European currency, also resumed its upward movement on Tuesday, August 18, and managed to overcome the Murray level of "8/8" - 1.3184, from which it previously bounced several times. Thus, after several weeks of "trampling" in one place, we can state: the bulls again dominate the market, and the US dollar remains extremely weak. We did not see a normal correction for the pound/dollar pair, and the British currency remains very overbought because of this, which, by the way, is signaled by the CCI indicator, whose value now exceeds 250. And again, it is absolutely impossible to say that the reasons for the pair's growth lie in the strength of the British currency or the UK economy. Or in the positive news from the Foggy Albion. The euro currency and the pound are growing against the dollar almost synchronously, so the reasons should be found in the States.

However, nothing extraordinary is happening in the States right now. It's just still bad.

1) The situation with "coronavirus" has changed a little for the better. For example, only 35,000 new cases of the disease were registered yesterday, and this value is falling from day to day. Thus, we can not say that the new fall in the US currency is associated with the COVID-2019 epidemic.

2) No macroeconomic statistics were published on Tuesday, so traders could not react to any bad report. However, we are forced to state that the economy's fall in the second quarter by 33% will be "reflected" in the US currency for a long time.

3) The situation with rallies and protests against the background of a racist scandal has also improved slightly. At least in most cities, popular riots have stopped.

4) The situation with China continues to deteriorate, but, thank God, at a fairly low rate, so there is reason to hope that with the change of power in the country (which is very likely), relations between Beijing and Washington will still improve a little.

5) The only thing that doesn't improve over time is the political crisis. And it's really bad here. Biden and Trump continue to pour mud on each other, sociological research suggests that Americans who support Biden are actually just against Trump. And we have already witnessed similar votes, when voters cast their votes not on the principle of "we choose their political program", but in order to solve certain issues (the parliamentary elections in the UK in December last year, when people voted not for the conservatives and Johnson, but for an early exit from the EU, which the conservatives and Johnson promised). As a result of such elections, not the best candidate usually comes to power. If, as in our case, there are only two candidates and one of them is obviously bad (in the opinion of the Americans themselves), then it seems that we will really have to choose the one who is less bad. And this role is perfect for Joe Biden, who just don't have time to remember during the Vice-presidency of Barack Obama, in recent months, when he was the main candidate of the Democratic party.

But Donald Trump continues to conflict with Beijing and Chinese companies. Not so long ago, Washington imposed new sanctions against the Chinese technology giant Huawei. Recall that the US war with this company has been waged for several years. The American side accuses it and the equipment it produces of espionage. Donald Trump called the Chinese company a "disaster" that "did whatever it wanted on US territory". China, however, responds to any US sanctions very quickly and with mirror measures. This time Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said: "Recently, America, without any evidence, under the pretext of protecting national security, has taken various restrictive measures against Huawei and other Chinese companies. This is undisguised hegemonic behavior." According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Washington undermines the principles of fair competition, and China strongly protests such actions against China and its companies.

At this time, the UK began another round of negotiations with Brussels on a comprehensive trade agreement. Many experts no longer believe that the parties will be able to reach an agreement, but the parties themselves continue to hold negotiations and continue to hope for a successful outcome. It is reported that this evening, Michel Barnier and David Frost will meet for dinner, and tomorrow the work of their negotiating groups will begin. Thus, this week it will be known whether the parties will make progress in the negotiations and whether there will be hope for the conclusion of a final agreement.

The consumer price index for July is scheduled to be published on the third trading day of the week in the UK. This is a fairly important indicator, but unfortunately, traders can ignore it. First, the British pound, as we can see, does not need any reasons to continue growing against the dollar. Yes, the pair stood in one place for a few weeks, but then it resumed growth quite easily. Thus, even weak inflation is unlikely to significantly spoil the mood of traders who have completely forgotten about all the problems of the British economy. The evening publication of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting is likely to have even less chance to influence the movement of the currency pair. Thus, we believe that on Wednesday, August 18, technical factors will remain in the first place. We recommend continuing to trade the pound/dollar pair in accordance with the indications and signals of the "linear regression channels" system. For example, at the time of writing, both linear regression channels are directed upwards, as is the moving average line, and the Heiken Ashi indicator turns the bars purple, which also indicates a local upward movement. With such indicators, there is nothing left but to trade for an increase.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 90 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Wednesday, August 19, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3150 and 1.3330. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will indicate a round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3214

S2 – 1.3184

S3 – 1.3153

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in the longs with the goals of 1.3245 and 1.3330 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to consider sell orders not before fixing the price below the moving average. At the moment, the price is extremely far from this line, so the trend is not expected to change in the near future.

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Comprehensive analysis of movement options for Gold & Silver (H4) on August 18, 2020

Minute operational scale (H4)

Continuing to beat the US dollar? Review of options for the movement of Gold & Silver on August 18, 2020.

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Spot Gold

The movement of Spot Gold from August 18, 2020 will occur depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 2009.00 - the median line Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 1992.00 - the upper border of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork.

A consistent break of the support level of 1992.00 on ISL38.2 Minute and lower bounds ISL38.2 (1983.00) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the USD Spot Gold within the zone (1992.00 - 1961.00 - 1930.00) equilibrium of the Minute operational scale fork and channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1969.00 - 1944.00 - 1920.00).

In case of breaking the Median Line Minuette - resistance level of 2009.00 - the upward movement of Spot Gold can be continued to the objectives:

  • upper bound ISL61.8 (2040.50) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • maximum 2074.75;
  • initial SSL line (2100.00) of the Minute operational scale fork.

Details of the Spot Gold movement since August 18, 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.

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Spot Silver

The development of the Spot Silver movement from August 18, 2020 will also be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 28.700 - the lower border of ISL38.2 of the balance zone of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 27.700 - the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette.

Joint breakout of the support level of 27.700 on the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette and ISL38.2 Minute (27.500) make possible the continuation of the movement of Spot Silver in the zone equilibrium (27.500 - 26.700 - 25.900) of the Minute operational scale fork, taking into account the working out of 1/2 Median Line Minuette (27.000) and the lower border of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (26.200).

In case of breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette - resistance level 28.700 - Spot Silver may continue its upward movement within the equilibrium zone (28.700 - 30.100 - 31.200) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Details of the Spot Silver movement options from August 18, 2020 are shown in the animated chart.

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____________________

The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 19. Americans are going to vote for Biden not because he is good, but because Trump

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 161.8946

The EUR/USD currency pair has been trading higher since August 12 after it failed to overcome the Murray level of "8/8" - 1.1719 for the third or fourth time. At the moment, everything is going to the point that the price will leave the side channel, where it was before three weeks ago. It seems that two hundred points of correction is the maximum that the US dollar can count on now. If this is the case and the correction is complete, and the markets are preparing a new round of upward trend, then the US currency is extremely bad. It turns out that market participants for three weeks did not find any reasons to correct the pair by at least 300-400 points, after an increase of 8-11 cents in three months. Traders did not find even technical reasons, and did not even want to fix a part of the profit on open long positions. So they don't believe in the dollar. The same opinion is reflected in the latest COT report, which showed that professional traders continue to increase their purchase contracts. Thus, the upward trend will continue again if in the near future the Heiken Ashi indicator does not urgently turn down and an urgent drop in quotes does not begin.

Meanwhile, the most interesting information came from America. Recent research by the Wall Street Journal shows that more than 58% of voters who support Joe Biden's candidacy in the election actually oppose Donald Trump. About 50% of all respondents would vote for Biden if the election were held right now. However, almost 3/5 of those 50% will vote for Biden simply because they don't want to vote for Donald Trump. Statistics on the current US President are somewhat different. For Trump right now, 41% of respondents are ready to cast their votes, of which almost all voters really support Trump, and are not ready to vote for him simply because they do not want to vote for Biden. Thus, the results are as follows. Fewer Americans are still ready to vote for Trump than for Biden. And, most likely, the balance of power between the Republican and the Democrat will not change until November 3. Despite the fact that just a few days ago, another opinion poll showed that the gap in political ratings between opponents is narrowing and is already just a couple of percent. We even then questioned these results, because they looked too fantastic. Recent social research shows that the gap between Biden and Trump remains the same – about 10%. However, it should be noted that Trump voters are more aware of their choice. They choose Trump, and do not vote against another candidate.

At the same time, former first lady Michelle Obama called Donald Trump the most wrong President of all and called for voting for Joe Biden in the election. "He had more than enough time to prove that he could do the job, but he jumped over his head. He just can't be what the country needs," Mrs. Obama said. Michelle Obama called what is happening now in the country "chaos" and said that the situation will not change under Donald Trump. The former first lady also criticized the President for his actions in suppressing rallies and protests, as well as his immigration policy.

Donald Trump, who never had a word in his pocket, did not take long to respond to Mrs. Obama. He said that the administration of her husband, Barack Obama, was the most corrupt in US history. Recall that earlier, Donald Trump accused Barack Obama and other high-ranking Democrats of conducting surveillance of his election campaign in 2016 and tried in every possible way to prevent him from winning the election. Also, Donald Trump, speaking in Wisconsin as part of his election campaign, said that "if the Democrats in the US take the reins of government in their own hands, it will be the second Venezuela". In addition, Trump opposes mass voting by mail, believing that the election results can be falsified. "You can't send out 16 million ballots, no one knows who will actually receive them. They will be at the disposal of postal employees, who can take them in batches," the US leader said. This is the situation in America 2.5 months before the election.

And it should be noted that everything that is happening now in the States clearly does not contribute to the growth of the US currency. Despite the fact that the US stock market is breaking records in the midst of the economic crisis, the US currency continues to depreciate. And experts, all as one, say that the recovery of the American economy will be extremely difficult and long. On Tuesday, August 18, no macroeconomic reports were published in the States. This was also the case in the European Union. However, this did not prevent traders from continuing moderate purchases of the euro currency and selling the dollar. On Wednesday, August 19, the EU and America will again not have any important macroeconomic publications, although the news calendar is not empty. The European Union will release the consumer price index for July, but we have repeatedly said that inflation is not an important indicator now. US inflation accelerated, according to the latest report, but the US dollar was not affected. Most likely, the same reaction of the markets will be tomorrow. In America, the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for the evening, which never causes a serious reaction from traders. Especially when no important decisions were taken at the meetings themselves. Of course, we do not recommend losing sight of this event, because anything can happen, surprises are not excluded. However, from our point of view, the macroeconomic background tomorrow will not have any impact on the mood of market participants. This means that technical factors will continue to be in the first place, according to which it is recommended to trade the euro/dollar pair. Both linear regression channels are still pointing upward, as is the moving average line. Thus, all trend indicators now support the continuation of the upward trend.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 19 is 82 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1851 and 1.2015. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair resumed its upward movement, managing to break out of the side channel. Thus, today it is recommended to continue trading for an increase with the goals of 1.2015 and 1.12085 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to consider short positions only after fixing the price below the moving average line with the first goal of the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1719.

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