Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 18, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

On Tuesday, the pair moving up, tried to break through the upper fractal - 1.2507 once again, and once again, the bulls failed. Strong calendar news is expected today at 8.30 Universal time (pound) and 12.30, 14.30, 18.00, 18.30 Universal time (dollar). The upward movement on the basis of the day may continue.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price before the news (18.00 Universal time) may move down with the target at 1.2444 - a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). After the news, upper work is possible with the first target 1.2527 - the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price until the news 18.00 Universal time may move down in the side channel.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 18, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

On Tuesday, the bulls won back all the positions that was lost on Monday, and the price returned to the beginning of the week. Rally down and up took place on small volumes, as if to say that the market has not yet decided on the trend. It is understandable. Today, interest rates in the USA are coming out. On Wednesday, strong calendar news is expected at 9.00 Universal time (Euro), 12.30, 14.30, 18.00, 18.30 Universal time, (dollar). Also on Wednesday, the market may move sideways in anticipation of interest rates.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, up to interest rates, a downward movement is possible with the target 1.1041 - a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line). If the news comes out, according to the forecast - further upward movement.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, a downward movement in the side channel is expected. News at 18.00 Universal time may change the trend to the upward, then the first target with an upward movement of 1.1111 is the upper fractal.

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Control zones GBPUSD 09/18/19

Today, the pair is trading at a weekly high, which may become crucial in the formation of further movement. If the price is kept below the extreme, the downward movement will form a local accumulation zone. The first goal of the decline will be yesterday's low. The main support will be WCZ 1/2 1.2358-1.2342.

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Today's trading in normal mode will proceed until the release of important news on the US dollar rate. After the news release, you will have to rebuild the trading plan, since there is a high probability of increasing volatility and the pair going beyond the average moves.

An alternative growth model will be developed if today's trading closes above 1.2512. This will open the way for further growth. The medium-term impulse is aimed at strengthening the British pound, so the continuation of this dynamics is highly likely. Purchases from current marks are not profitable, therefore, the formation of a correction model is required.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 18, 2019

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GBP/JPY continues to add upside pressure and has made a minor new high at 135.43. That said, we still expect gravity sooner or later will drag GBP/JPY lower in red wave c of red wave ii towards 130.78 before the next larger rally towards 137.40 and above should be expected.

Short-term a break below minor support at 133.85 will be a strong indication that more downside pressure towards 130.78 is developing.

R3: 137.69

R2: 136.32

R1: 135.43

Pivot: 133.85

S1: 133.28

S2: 132.18

S3: 130.78

Trading recommendation:

We continue to look for a GBP buying opportunity near 131.15

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 18, 2019

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EUR/JPY has recovered nicely from the corrective low at 118.66. We expect a continuation higher to at least 121.94 and likely even higher towards 122.97 and 124.64 as red wave iii accelerates higher.

Short-term a clear break above the former peak at 120.01 will confirm our view of more upside pressure towards 121.94 and above. That said, we should expect a minor corrective dip from near 120.01 to 119.60 before moving higher again.

R3: 120.70

R2: 120.30

R1: 120.00

Pivot: 119.60

S1: 119.20

S2: 118.92

S3: 118.66

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.25 with our stop placed at 117.50

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 18. The pound strengthened before publication of Fed decision on interest

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

It seems that traders decided not to wait for the Fed's decision on interest rates, and wager it before publication. The pound's growth from yesterday can only be tied to this, as there were no other real prerequisites for purchases. An important inflation report will be released today in the morning, which may indicate the Bank of England's further policy regarding interest rates. A good report will lead to a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2465 and a further upward trend in GBP/USD, and a break of resistance of 1.2534 will only strengthen the bullish sentiment. In this scenario, we can expect the highs to be renewed around 1.2563 and 1.2600, where I recommend taking profits. When the pound drops to support at 1.2465 in the morning, it is best to consider new long positions on a rebound from a large low of 1.2397.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers will count on a weak inflation report and the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2534, which will be the first signal to open short positions. However, a more important task in the first half of the day will be to break the low at 1.2465, which could further pull down GBP/USD to the level of 1.2397, where I recommend taking profits. If the bullish sentiment persists, and this is more likely, given that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates today, then it is best to count on new sales from a high of 1.2600, or even higher, from a level of 1.2639.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted slightly above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likelihood of continued upward trend.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower boundary at 1.2410. An upward trend may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2535.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 18. Eurozone inflation data may lead to resistance breakout 1.1075

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Of course, all the attention today will be on the Fed's decision on interest rates, but we must not forget that in the first half of the day there is also an important report on the eurozone consumer price index, which may lead to further growth of EUR/USD. With good data indicating signs of inflation, buyers will seize the moment and try to break above the resistance level of 1.1074, which will lead to the continuation of the euro's growth from yesterday in the area of a high of 1.1110, as well as to update the larger resistance level of 1.1151, where I recommend taking profit. If the pressure on the euro returns in the morning, then consider new purchases before the Fed report, it is best after an update of support at 1.1031, or on the rebound from a larger low in the region of 1.0992.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers will wait for a weak inflation report, as well as a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1074, which may force some traders to take profits in long positions before the Fed's decision on interest rates is published, and will lead to a downward correction of EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1031, where I recommend taking profits. However, sellers will be aiming for a low of 1.0992. In case the pair grows above the resistance of 1.1074 in the morning, short positions can be seen on the test of the previous week's high at 1.1110, or you can immediately sell for a rebound from the new resistance of 1.1151. However, for those who expect a lower euro, it is best to wait for the Federal Reserve to announce interest rates.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates an attempt to return buyers to the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1031 will increase pressure on the euro, while the upper boundary in the area of 1.1095 will limit the upward potential in the morning.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 18/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

American ACC (Army Contracting Command) from New Jersey has issued a pre-order notice for cryptocurrency investigation service providers.

According to ACC, an analytical solution in the field of cryptocurrency is sought for use by the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command (USACIDC) for use in criminal investigations and other missions. The notice states that the contractor must provide an online cloud service - independent of hardware or software - that can help law enforcement authorities identify and prosecute entities using cryptocurrencies for illegal purposes, such as fraud, extortion and money laundering.

The contractor should provide the source of the cryptocurrency transactions, offering the opportunity to analyze many cryptocurrencies from Bitcoin to other major cryptocurrencies. Other requirements include providing "real-time tracking of Bitcoin transactions and other cryptocurrency transactions", including service assignment and identification, as well as the ability to identify transaction patterns and interact with other entities.

In autumn 2018, the Diar publication revealed that US government agencies have tripled their investments in Blockchain intelligence companies this year. The vast majority of government contracts in 2018 were reportedly concluded with the New York analytical company Blockchain Chainalysis, which has since signed contracts with government agencies for a total amount of USD 5.3 million.

Technical Market Overview:

Another higher high has been made on the ETH/USD pair at the level of $214.24. All targets for the wave (3) has been hit, so now the market might start the corrective cycle of the wave (4). The momentum is still increasing as well, so the rally might continue even higher after the wave (4) is completed, just as Elliott Wave theory scenario proposed last week The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $202.70 and then at $186.70.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $212.96

WR2 - $200.24

WR1 - $196.12

Weekly Pivot - $184.92

WS1 - $179.10

WS2 - $168.22

WS3 - $163.07

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 18/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Dutch company Waste2Wear claims to have created the world's first collection of recycled fabrics made of oceanic plastics that can be traced using Blockchain.

The eco-friendly company is organizing an exhibition from 17 to 19 September in Paris at the international textile fair Premiere Vision.The collection was specially developed by Waste2Wear in response to customer demand for recycled materials used in fabrics to be traceable. The company announced the introduction of the beta version of its proprietary Blockchain system into the new collection on August 22.

Waste2Wear said that plastic waste must take a long journey from the ocean to become a finished textile product, which requires many step-by-step data records. By implementing Blockchain technology, the company intends to fully follow the fabric supply chain.

The plastics used to produce Waste2Wear oceanic fabrics were obtained from the water and coastal areas of a small island near Shanghai. In collaboration with local authorities, Waste2Wear has built a business model enabling local fishermen to earn money by recovering plastic from the ocean. According to Waste2Wear, fishermen collect over three tonnes of ocean waste every week.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair did not make any important move after the pairs have moved down out of the horizontal price range located between the levels of $10,211 - $10,381. So far the bulls have only managed to retrace 50% of the last move down in the wave (2) of a higher degree and the momentum is not increasing as well. The next target for them is seen at the level of $10,469 and it needs to be violated in impulsive fashion in order to continue the up move, otherwise, the whole Elliott Wave scenario will be changed and updated.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,232

WR2 - $10,847

WR1 - $10,552

Weekly Pivot - $10,174

WS1 - $9,851

WS2 - $9,477

WS3 - $9,160

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles are about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 18, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 30-y Bond Auction, Italian Trade Balance, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y. The US will also publish the economic data such as Federal Funds Rate, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1126. Strong Resistance: 1.1120. Original Resistance: 1.1109. Inner Sell Area: 1.1098. Target Inner Area: 1.1073. Inner Buy Area: 1.1048. Original Support: 1.1037. Strong Support: 1.1026. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1020. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 18, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance and the US will publish some economic data such as Federal Funds Rate, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 108.75. Resistance. 2: 108.54. Resistance. 1: 108.33. Support. 1: 108.06. Support. 2: 107.85. Support. 3: 107.64. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 18/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The rally at the GBP/USD pair has hit a new swing high at the level of 1.2526. The move-up might have been completed as there is a Shooting Star candlestick formation present at the end of the rally. Please keep an eye on how this key level will be played by the market participants, because of the overbought conditions. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the bulls can still make pressure on higher price levels. Nevertheless, there is a clear and visible negative divergence between the price and momentum indicator, so the correction might occure any time soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2381.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2885

WR2 - 1.268

WR1 - 1.2601

Weekly Pivot - 1.2422

WS1 - 1.2331

WS2 - 1.2133

WS3 - 1.2067

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 18/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.0997 as anticipated. In order to continue the move up, the bulls must break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.1027 - 1.1034 and head towards the level of 1.1091 again. Otherwise, the bounce will be treated only as a local bounce inside of the corrective cycle of a lesser degree that will be used by bears to open more sell orders with a better price. The nearest technical support is located at the level of 1.0978.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1336

WR2 - 1.1226

WR1 - 1.1152

Weekly Pivot - 1.1040

WS1 - 1.0980

WS2 - 1.0859

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 18, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, on Tuesday, euro-neutral economic data came out; Eurozone's business sentiment index ZEW rose from -43.6 to -22.4 in September, while US industrial production rose by 0.6% in August with an increase in capacity utilization to 77.9% from 77.5%. But the euro was bought out before the Federal Reserve meeting today, the single currency's growth reached 70 points. As we recall, the first large-scale redemption of the euro took place in the US session on the day of the ECB meeting on September 12, then the daily range was 160 points. The situation is such that growth will continue, whatever the decisions of the FOMC on monetary policy. Markets expect a further quarter cut with a 55% probability. An alarming figure, since yesterday the market probability, in accordance with futures on federal funds, was 65%, and a week ago at 90%.

The rate, in all likelihood, can still be lowered, since the Fed literally promised to do it, but further forecasts and comments can be quite hawkish. And indeed: economic growth continues (Atlanta Fed's forecast for GDP for the 3rd quarter is 1.8%), inflation is growing (the core CPI in August rose from 2.2% yoy to 2.4% yoy).

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So, we are waiting for the euro to grow to a magnetic point on the daily chart at 1.1155 formed by the line of the price channel and the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. A little lower is the indicator line of MACD, which will also serve as resistance. In this area, according to our main scenario, investors can start taking profits - closing purchases from September 3 to September 17. The price exit above the resistance may continue to grow to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at the price of 1.1215. Here are the strong record levels of the second decade of August, the second half of July, mid-June and earlier periods.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is above the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. The general market sentiment for today is to buy.

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential for big bounce!

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EURUSD is approaching our first support level.

Entry: 1.10589

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss : 1.10365

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.11049

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

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AUD/USD pullback below resistance

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AUDUSD pullback below resistance in progress

Entry: 0.687

Why it's good : Horizontal graphical resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.68325

Why it's good: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal swing lowStop Loss: 0.6880Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, Horizontal graphical swing high

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USD/JPY approaching 1st resistance, potential to rise further!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 108.23 and could reverse from here!

Entry :108.234

horizontal swing high resistance

100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.46

Why it's good :38.2% Fibonacci retracement

23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal overlap support

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 18, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound almost reached the initial growth target of 1.2540 at the point of convergence of the price channel line with the Fibonacci level of 161.8%. Such an accelerated pound growth, set by a strong movement on Friday, could turn into a quick reversal after the Federal Reserve meeting. This is one of the options for the development of today's and tomorrow's events - an increase with the development of 1.2540, or slightly higher, followed by a downward price movement. The reasons may lie on a fundamental plane: inflation data for England in August, published today, are expected to worsen (the core CPI is 1.8% y/y versus 1.9% y/y earlier), and US data on the laying of new homes for August is expected to grow from 1.19 million y/y to 1.25 million y/y. This discrepancy can be taken into account in prices after the Fed released its monetary policy, which, with a high degree of probability, may have a hawkish tone, up to the announcement of a delay in the period of the rate reduction cycle.

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If, however, the tonality of the accompanying statement and the comments of Jerome Powell are not very hawkish, after consolidating the price above 1.2540, it is possible to continue growth to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2668. The nearest targets when turning: 1.2381, 1.2230.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is above the balance line and the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, but its growth is sluggish, which is also alarming.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 18, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On the daily chart, the price reached the first goal at 108.35, which is the enclosed line of the red falling price channel. According to our expectations, the Fed will lower the rate to 2.00%, but the accompanying statement and comments by FOMC Chairman Powell will be quite aggressive. In turn, this may not weaken the dollar strongly in the market, especially considering the market adsorption of the rate cut. So much has been said about this decrease, which is considered to be practically a closed chapter, even if the markets lay such a probability of only 55%.

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The technical picture does not even hint at a possible downward turn of the dollar. Overcoming the price of 108.35 opens a direct road to 109.20 and then to 109.58. These goals are determined by the lines of price channels on the daily chart.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has risen sharply above the MACD line. This is the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the growth zone.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 18

Forecast for September 18:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1227, 1.1188, 1.1135, 1.1114, 1.1019, 1.0987 and 1.0932. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of September 12. The target is 1.0932. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1114 - 1.1135. In this case, the first target is 1.1188. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1227. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1019 - 1.0987. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0932.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1188

Buy 1.1190 Take profit: 1.1125

Sell: 1.1019 Take profit: 1.0990

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0935

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2738, 1.2673, 1.2622, 1.2549, 1.2460, 1.2403, 1.2338 and 1.2281. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascendant structure from September 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2549. In this case, the target is 1.2622. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2622 - 1.2673. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2738. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect consolidated movement in the range 1.2460 - 1.2403. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2338. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.2281.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2620

Buy: 1.2674 Take profit: 1.2736

Sell: 1.2401 Take profit: 1.2340

Sell: 1.2336 Take profit: 1.2282

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0027, 1.0004, 0.9970, 0.9945, 0.9914, 0.9894, 0.9873 and 0.9852. Here, we are following the formation of the upward potential of September 13. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9945. In this case, the target is 0.9970, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.9970 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 1.0004. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 1.0027. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9914 - 0.9894. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9873. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the potential formation for the top of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9945 Take profit: 0.9968

Buy : 0.9972 Take profit: 1.0004

Sell: 0.9914 Take profit: 0.9896

Sell: 0.9892 Take profit: 0.9875

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.76, 108.33, 108.12, 107.70, 107.49 and 107.12. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.12 - 108.33. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 108.76, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 107.70 - 107.49. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.12. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.12 Take profit: 108.30

Buy : 108.35 Take profit: 108.76

Sell: 107.70 Take profit: 107.50

Sell: 107.46 Take profit: 107.12

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3379, 1.3343, 1.3326, 1.3297, 1.3275, 1.3208, 1.3192, 1.3172 and 1.3131. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 10. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3275 - 1.3297. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3326. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3326 - 1.3343. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3379. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3192. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3172. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.3131.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3275 Take profit: 1.3295

Buy : 1.3299 Take profit: 1.3226

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3193

Sell: 1.3190 Take profit: 1.3172

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6918, 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6841, 0.6822 and 0.6793. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6867 - 0.6884. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.6918. Price consolidation is near this value. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6841 - 0.6822. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6793. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6886 Take profit: 0.6918

Buy: 0.6920 Take profit: 0.6965

Sell : 0.6840 Take profit : 0.6822

Sell: 0.6820 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.39, 120.36, 119.95, 118.99, 118.50 and 117.73. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 119.95 - 120.36. The breakdown of the level of 120.36 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.95. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 118.99 - 118.50. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the upward structure from September 12. Here, the first potential target is 117.73.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.95 Take profit: 120.34

Buy: 120.38 Take profit: 121.35

Sell: 118.99 Take profit: 118.53

Sell: 118.46 Take profit: 117.80

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 137.21, 136.13, 135.37, 134.10, 133.39 and 132.23. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of September 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 135.37 - 136.13. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 137.21, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 134.10 - 133.39. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 132.23. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 3, the local ascending structure of September 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.38 Take profit: 136.10

Buy: 136.15 Take profit: 137.20

Sell: 134.10 Take profit: 133.42

Sell: 133.35 Take profit: 132.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 17, 2019 APLs &

Minor (H4) We will comprehensively consider the development options for the movement of the currency instruments AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX from September 17, 2019 on the operational scale Minor ( Daily )

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working out and the direction of breakdown of the channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line ( 98.80 - 98.05 - 97.75 ) forks of the operational scale MinuteThe markup of #USDX

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Trap for gold: the "black swan" shook the position of precious metal

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At certain periods of time, the so-called "black swans" are activated on the raw material market. They appear suddenly and confuse all the cards to traders and investors. The yellow metal also did not escape this fate.

Let us turn to the terminology. The concept of "black swan" includes a number of major events that cannot be predicted, but they radically change the course of history. "Black Swans" are both positive and negative phenomena. They can be global or personal. Such events include wars, financial crises, an accidental meeting, winning a lottery, etc. This term came into use after the publication of the book by Nassim Taleb "Black Swan. The impact of highly improbable. "

The bankruptcy of the largest US bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008 is considered a classic example of a "black swan". The financial collapse of this institution had negative consequences not only for the United States, but for the entire global financial system. At that time, the bank's liabilities exceeded $600 billion. Panic broke out in financial markets: investors who lost insurance hastily closed their positions in emerging markets and fled to the dollar. They stopped the panic of the US financial authorities. Properly implemented strategy has allowed us to avoid further negative scenarios for the global economy.

At the moment, the "black swan" for the black gold market was an attack by Hussite rebels from Yemen at the refineries of Saudi Arabia. The attack took place on Saturday, September 14, and on Monday, the stock exchanges began to fever. At the opening of trading, November futures for North Sea Brent crude oil were trading at $67.8 per barrel, well above Friday's $60.15. The highest growth of oil quotes reached almost 20%, analysts say.

The yellow metal did not stand aside: after the collapse of value last Friday, it slightly came to its senses, but it will not be possible to maintain its previously won positions, analysts say.

At the moment, gold is trapped: rising in price and strengthening, the precious metal rested on its laurels for a sufficient time. Now it will have to go down to earth and act in straitened circumstances. Analysts are considering several scenarios for the further dynamics of gold prices, but they are mostly negative, with varying degrees of decline.

1) A positive outlook on the cost of precious metals provides for consolidation in the range of $1480 – $1560 per ounce and further growth.

2) Another relatively positive scenario suggests that the price of gold is adjusted to $1440 – $1450 per ounce.

3) According to a moderate forecast, the cost of precious metal in the fourth quarter of 2109 will be $1,427.50 per ounce.

4) Analysts do not rule out such a negative development, like the correction of the price of yellow metal to $1360 – $1370 per ounce.

On Monday, September 16, the precious metal was trading in the range from $1,511.40 to $1,510.70 per ounce, and on Tuesday fell in price to $1,504.10 per ounce. Analysts are confident that in the short term, both gold and oil will continue to fall.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil flies into the stratosphere

Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?

An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.

After a member of the royal family became the Minister of Energy for the first time in history, many suspected that something was wrong. Prices rose by leaps and bounds, and the attack on Abqaiq is perceived as a bolt from the blue, but only by a majority. When a crime occurs, one always wonders, "who benefits?" For a balanced budget, Saudi Arabia needed oil at $80 per barrel, but before the appointment of Abdulaziz bin Salman as minister, there were few reasons for a rapid rally. Reducing OPEC production did not help: the Americans were actively increasing production, and China was cutting demand. For a sharp rise in prices, force majeure was needed, and in an amazing way it became a reality.

One-day oil jumps

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According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.

At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.

Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.

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