Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 20, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

The three largest Japanese banks, part of a group of 30 private sector entities, are to collaborate on the digital yen experiment. According to the media report, the group consists of banks, various Japanese brokerage houses, utilities and telecommunications companies, and retailers.

For the purposes of the experiment, private banks will be responsible for the currency issue, although the prospect of involving other third parties in the issue has not been ruled out, says the president of the new group, Hiromi Yamaoka. Yamaoka is a former director of the Japanese central bank, who has spoken more and more about the development of the digital yen in recent months.

Japan is well known for its slow acceptance of cashless payments. Cash still accounts for about 80% of total domestic settlement, compared to 55% in the US and just 30% in China.

Leading Japanese banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, have previously developed individual digital payment systems, including digital tokens.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair is in the up trend and there is no indication of any kind of reversal yet. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $493.30. If the price will break out above this level, then the nearest target is seen at the level of $500. The strong and positive momentum support the short-term outlook for ETH. Only if a daily candle closes below $400 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $507.71

WR2 - $490.25

WR1 - $463.71

Weekly Pivot - $448.80

WS1 - $421.33

WS2 - $405.66

WS3 - $377.90

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $360 is broken.

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Forecast of GBP/USD for 20 November

  • GBP/USD lacks a clear directional bias with prices trapped in the range.
  • A close below 1.32 would imply a reversal lower.

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GBP/USD is currently trading at near 1.328, having been rejected off 1.33 twice in the past seven trading days. GBP/USD looks to extend its bounce towards 1.3300 ahead of publication of the UK Retail Sales data. The annualized British spending is seen higher by 4.2% in October vs. 4.7% in the previous month.

However, bulls can capitalize on the move or the GBP/USD pair struggles to climb back above the 1.3300 mark as investors await Brexit-related news. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move, possibly towards mid-1.3300s.

Alternatively, a close below 1.32 would open the door to deeper declines. The immediate support is located at 1.310 (Nov. 13 low) followed by the Nov. 2 low of 1.2850.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 20, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

A study by the consulting company DeVere Group was conducted on over 700 millionaires. It showed that almost three-quarters (73 percent) of them either already own or want to invest in cryptocurrencies before the end of 2022. In 2019, 68 percent of the respondents gave such positive answers to the same survey.

The participants in the study were people who owned over £ 1 million, or about $ 1.32 million. Millionaires came from several regions of the world: the United States, Great Britain, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Australia and Latin America.

The CEO and founder of the DeVere Group, Nigel Green, wrote in a company report that Bitcoin was once again one of the best performing assets of the year and it was certainly a 125% increase in the rate.

It is worth remembering that the decision of PayPal, for example, could also drive wealthy investors to this market. Recall that the company is starting to allow its clients to pay BTC.

In addition, Wall Street companies invest in BTC. An example is Jack Dorsey's Square or Microstrategy. Both companies bought cryptocurrencies as a security for their capital.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps moving higher, so the up trend and the way to $20k remains intact. The market volatility has increased as the Bitcoin trades in the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Any violation of the level of $18,389 will accelerate the next wave up. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $17,000 and the technical resistance is now a swing high located at $18,389. As long as the market trades above the level of $15,000 the mid-term outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $18,219

WR2 - $17,297

WR1 - $16,656

Weekly Pivot - $15,563

WS1 - $14,969

WS2 - $14,056

WS3 - $13,330

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $20,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $15,000 is broken.

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EUR/USD. Mnuchin demanded the Fed to return unspent $455 billion fund

There was a short-term corrective growth from the US currency yesterday. The dollar index showed positive dynamics for just a few hours, but declined again before the US session ended. The primary reason is the news about US Treasury Secretary, Mr. Steven Mnuchin, who demanded the Fed to return the unspent $ 455 billion from the COVID-19 fund. However, this factor was only a reason for the dollar's weakness, since in general, we have a negative fundamental background for the indicated currency, which does not contribute to its recovery.

Before discussing Mr. Mnuchin's statement yesterday, it is worth recalling that Mr. Trump lost the presidential election, so the ministerial composition of the White House will completely change in two months. The US Secretary, who influenced the currency market yesterday, will also leave his post. But at the same time, it's unlikely that his successor will consistently cancel all the decisions made during the previous administration. Moreover, some representatives of Democrats also agreed with Mnuchin's claims. It should also be noted that the Minister's demand is not verbal (emotional) in nature – this is the official position of the Department, which is issued in the form of an official appeal of the Ministry of Finance to the US Federal Reserve. Due to these issues, the dollar lost its position yesterday against the basket of major currencies. The market is talking about the fact that the Fed will soon resort to aggressive monetary easing again. At the same time, the head of the regulator, Mr. Powell, indirectly confirmed such intentions recently.

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Now, let's go back to the US Treasury. We are talking about the funds that were allocated to the Fed as part of the first package to stimulate the US economy, which in turn, was approved by Congress back in March this year. The total amount of aid was $ 2 trillion 200 billion and $500 billion from which was allocated to the regulator for the creation of various emergency lending mechanisms through the Fed as well as loan guarantees. In the spring, that is, at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic, the measures taken helped to calm the markets. However, it turns out that the Fed has used only a small portion of the allocated funds. In view of this fact, Mr. Mnuchin officially asked to return the unused funds to the department – 429 billion of the remaining funds from the FRS and 26 billion of unused funds of direct loans from the Ministry of Finance.

It is noteworthy that J. Powell has already managed to refuse to do so, despite the fact that he avoids this kind of public argument most of the time. But in this case, the Fed's head said that the above program, which Mnuchin mentioned, ends only in a month and a half, that is, on the last day of the current year. Therefore, he would prefer that the entire volume of emergency funds continue to play its important role as a support for the vulnerable US economy. It should be noted that we are talking about the official response of the Central Bank, which was published on the official website of the Department. Such public conflicts between such structures are quite rare in the States.

Against this background, several experts from the US think that the current situation testifies, first of all, to the fact that the White House does not hope for a compromise on a new aid package for the US economy, and therefore is seeking alternative mechanisms for allocating funds. The alignment of political forces in the chambers of the US Congress after the elections remained the same: the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats, while the Senate is by Republicans. Therefore, the negotiations, which lasted for six months, will continue.

Considering these prospects, the Fed may soon (at the December meeting) move from words to actions, softening the parameters of monetary policy. During the other day, Mr. Powell assured those present at a Bay Area Council event that the Fed would use all its tools to support the country's economy. He also called on Congress to pass a new fiscal stimulus package, but looking at the current political picture, we can assume that politicians are unlikely to compromise on this issue this year. By the way, two Fed representatives (James Bullard and John Williams) also came up with proposals to provide the economy with more stimulus last Wednesday.

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This fundamental background broke the corrective growth of the US currency. Medical reports indicating new coronavirus anti-records in the United States served as a "control shot". So, over the past day, 185 thousand Americans were infected with the virus. A day earlier, this figure was at the level of 170 thousand. Since the beginning of November, this did not go below the 100-thousand mark, while demonstrating an upward trend. At the same time, US Vice President, Mike Pence said yesterday that the White House does not support the idea of introducing a nationwide quarantine. However, many States independently tighten restrictive measures up to a complete lockdown.

As a result, the current fundamental picture is not conducive to the dollar's recovery. The euro, in turn, looks more attractive against the dollar, despite a bunch of its own problems (COVID-19 and political tensions around the EU budget). All this suggests that long positions are still relevant for the EUR/USD pair with the first goal at 1.1940, which is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 20, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has moved out of the channel, hit the level of 1.3196, made a Pin Bar candlestick on H4 time frame chart and bounced back up towards the level of 1.3283. Currently, the bulls are testing the lower channel line from below. If they are rejected, then the down move will continue towards the new target seen at the level of 1.3165. The other technical supports are 1.3121 and 1.3078.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3481

WR2 - 1.3397

WR1 - 1.3286

Weekly Pivot - 1.3197

WS1 - 1.3085

WS2 - 1.2994

WS3 - 1.2882

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 20, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the 61% Fibonacci retracement seen on the weekly time frame and located at 1.1822. The move up was strong, but shallow and there is no new high made yet above the last one seen at the level of 1.1893. In case of the up move continuation, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1914 and above. The nearest technical support is located at 1.1813, 1.1803 and 1.1789.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2099

WR2 - 1.2008

WR1 - 1.1924

Weekly Pivot - 1.1834

WS1 - 1.1747

WS2 - 1.1659

WS3 - 1.1571

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for the GBP / USD currency pair 20/11/2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1)

Today, the market will try to start moving up from the level of 1.3259 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3317 which is the resistance line (white bold line). When this line is reached, the price can continue to move up with the goal of 1.3424 which is the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator (black dotted line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart)

Complex analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis – up
  • Fibonacci Levels – up
  • Volumes – up
  • Candle Analysis – up
  • Trend Analysis – up
  • Bollinger Bands – up
  • Weekly Chart – up

General conclusion:

Today, from the level of 1.3259 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price will try to start moving up with the goal of 1.3317 which is the resistance line (white bold line). When this line is reached, the price can continue to move up with the goal of 1.3424 which is the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator (black dotted line).

Alternative scenario: When moving up and reaching the resistance line 1.3317 (white bold line), the price may start moving down with a target of 1.3214 which is a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line).

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Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair on November 20. Markets are growing even amid a new peak in COVID-19 incidence.

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Another peak in global COVID-19 incidence was observed- around 650 thousand new cases a day. Deaths related to the virus have also increased, reaching about 11 thousand daily.

More than half of these figures were from the United States, that is, 192 thousand new infections and around 2 thousand deaths a day. All in all, the US has listed 12 million COVID-19 patients, or approximately 4% of the population.

Then, Europe follows, several countries of which are already introducing strict quarantine measures.

Despite this, the markets are growing, which suggests that it is somewhat oblivious to the height of the pandemic.

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S&P 500 chart.

The US market is consolidating near the highs and soon, it will be able to break even higher. It was the better-than-expected report on employment that provided strong support, especially since long-term unemployment fell by 400 thousand.

Because of this, it is best to wait for a breakout before selling from new highs.

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EUR/USD - by yesterday night, euro bulls have completely turned the quotes up from the weekly lows.

Wait for a breakout and movement towards 1.1895 before opening long positions.

Sell at the level of 1.1815.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/20/2020

Although the data on applications for unemployment benefits came out versatile, the pound behaved as if everyone was looking at repeated applications, and after a while at the primary ones. The fact is that the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits fell from 6,801,000 to 6,372,000. This is certainly a positive moment. However, it seems that after a couple of hours everyone remembered that the number of these same repeated applications should have dropped to 6,250,000. Moreover, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased from 711,000 to 742,000, instead of decreasing to 685,000. In general, the data came out slightly worse than forecasted, although it still demonstrates a gradual recovery of the US labor market.

Number of re-claims for unemployment benefits (United States):

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But if yesterday the pound eventually remained in the same positions from which it started, then today it might just give up. The growth rate of retail sales in the UK should slow from 4.7% to 4.0%. The slowdown in growth rates is quite significant, and much more than the recent rise in inflation. As a result, if these forecasts are confirmed, it means that the companies' revenues are decreasing. So the pound has no reason to be optimistic. Moreover, negotiations on Brexit have arrived at nowhere. London and Brussels are still marking time. Another thing is that the activity on the market has been extremely low lately, so the scale of the pound's weakening will be rather symbolic.

Retail Sales (UK):

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The GBPUSD pair reached the 1.3200 level during the correction course, where it slowed down and turned the quote towards the main level of 1.3300. In fact, a recovery process was obtained relative to the correction, about 75%.

If we proceed from the quote's current location, we can see that about 20 points are left to the resistance level, thereby the volume of long positions may decrease.

With regard to volatility, there is still a slowdown process in the period of five trading days.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the corrective and recovery course is part of the upward movement from September 24.

We can assume that the natural basis associated with the 1.3300 level can still benefit sellers in the event of a rebound. At the same time, it is worth considering keeping the upward move in case the price settles higher than 1.3320 in a four-hour period.

From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments unanimously signal a "buy" since the price returned to the area of the resistance level.

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US dollar is weakening and the US economy desperately needs another stimulus package. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

The number of initial unemployed claims rose by 742 thousand over the week, which is higher than forecasted and indicates a slowdown in the labor market recovery. The lack of progress in Congress on a new fiscal stimulus package has led the Fed to hint through Kaplan about the possibility of extending its purchases, if necessary to support the economy.

The issue of incentives must be resolved one way or another. The US economy is losing the opportunities that were provided to it after 1975 and the 1979/82 energy crisis. As a result, the dollar received the status of "petrodollar". The turning point came during the dot-com crisis in 2000/02, and for 20 years now, the number of dropouts from the labor force has been growing, while the number of jobs created has been declining relative to the total population. It is possible to maintain a high standard of living in the current conditions only with the help of instilling massive cash.

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On another note, the votes recounted in Georgia did not confirm Biden's victory, which was reduced from 14 thousand to 12 thousand.The total result is currently 306/232 in favor of Biden, and it is already clear that Mr. Trump can only count on lawsuits to which he needs to attach irrefutable evidence of falsification.The market believes less and less in such a scenario, so the pressure on the dollar is growing. Today, the advantage will remain with protective assets.

EUR/USD

The target price made an upturn, although euro's long position declined again – by 572 million this time. As the most inertial market, the futures market still expects the dollar to rise; however, short-term indicators favor the euro, which can lead to a highly possible continuation of EUR/USD growth. So, all that the euro bulls have managed to achieve in 4 months is just to lead it into a side range.

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During the first day of the EU summit, they paid attention to the issues of a seven-year budget of 1.07 trillion and a 750 billion economic recovery plan. There were significant differences on both issues, which did not allow a consensus to be reached. Most likely, the issue will be postponed for the near future – either a separate budget summit will be convened, or there will be an attempt to prepare a decision for the scheduled meeting on December 11-12.

The issue of a trade agreement with the UK is expected to be discussed today. For Mr. Johnson's Cabinet, the "X-hour" is coming, so there may be increased volatility.

Technically, the euro is getting ready to approach an important resistance zone 1.1900/20, which will sharply strengthen the bullish position. If this plan works out, it can further reach the level of 1.20. If not, a pullback to 1.1800/20 is likely.

GBP/USD

Last month's report on consumer inflation was generally positive, exceeding expectations on a number of indicators. The price decline slowed to zero – there was a slight growth from 0.5% to 0.7% in annual terms. Moreover, the pound received a positive signal, but it is unlikely that it will be long-term. First, the introduction of new restrictive measures is sure to lead to a drop in consumer demand. Second, producer prices continue to remain in the negative zone, which indicates a very shaky foundation for recovery after the first wave of COVID-19. Lastly, there were still no signals from both sides about the EU negotiations.

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The pound was in an uncertain state for six months, being under pressure from the threat of losing privileged access to the European market due to Brexit. In addition, the long-awaited reversal did not take place – futures are still selling and a net short position of 1.468 billion has risen by 551 million over the reporting week. Despite all this, the main thing for the pound now is knowing if there is a consensus in the EU negotiations.

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Apparently, the reassessment of the US dollar's prospects after Biden self-announced his victory in the presidential race resulted in a target price reversal both for the euro and the pound in the last two weeks.

The pound remains in the rising channel. If today's negotiations turned out to be optimistic, it may be pushed to 1.3340/60, but if there is a lack of consensus again, we can expect a pullback to the middle of the 1.3170/80 channel.

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Forecast of EUR/USD for 20 November

EUR/USD has recovered sharply back into the positive territory and pushed towards fresh highs around 1.1880 in recent trade. The EUR/USD pair is rising back towards 1.1890 after a brief test of 1.1820.

EUR/USD's upside attempts faced a pause at the trendline hurdle on the 1-hour chart. EUR/USD was extending its consolidation mode in the Asia session, trading in the 1.1820-1.1890 range. The pair is well on its way back towards the upper limits of this range, given that it is now trading at the 1.1880s.

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Nevertheless, the trendline resistance and a critical barrier at 1.1890 remains a tough level to crack for the buyers so far this Friday. The downward turn in the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 65+, suggests that the bulls are likely to face a challenge surpassing the hurdle. Acceptance above that level could see a test of the 1.1900 level.

If EUR/USD continues to gain ground in the ongoing mode, it looks likely to come into play as resistance just below the 1.1900 mark, as highs of the week and the top of EUR/USD's current range in the 1.1890s. If the bears manage to regain control and push the price back towards the low of 1.1820 again, the bottom of the range will offer support.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on the EUR/USD currency pair for November 20, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level - 1.1874 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the market will try to continue moving upward with the goal of 1.1894 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, work upward to the level of 1.1920 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). If this succeeds, further work upward to 1.1948 historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

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Figure 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - up
  • Fibonacci levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candlestick analysis - up
  • Trend analysis - up
  • Bollinger bands - up
  • Weekly chart - up

General conclusion:

Today, from the level of - 1.1874 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick), the price will try to continue moving upward with the goal of 1.1894 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, work upward to the level of 1.1920 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). If this succeeds, further work upward to 1.1948 historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

Alternative scenario: when moving upward and testing the pullback level of 85.4% - 1.1894 (blue dotted line), the pair may start moving down with the target of 1.1844 – a 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 20? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair began to correct last night, as we expected in yesterday's evening review. However, as it became known in the morning, the correction turned out to be quite strong and at the moment the pair has practically reached two previous local highs. If the price manages to overcome them or update them, the technical picture will become very confusing. For novice traders, the existing technical picture does not threaten with losses or any problems. Last night we advised you to sell the pair using the new sell signal from MACD, which is after the correction ended. The MACD indicator did not generate sell signals in the evening, and the correction was not completed. Thus, at the moment we still believe that the EUR/USD pair will go back to falling to the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. An upward trend can start forming only if the price confidently overcomes the 1.1903 level.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak on Friday, November 20. It is unlikely for Lagarde to mention anything important, given the fact that she has already spoken three or four times this week. By and large, all of her speeches now concern the coronavirus epidemic, the creation of a vaccine, as well as the plan for economic recovery and the EU budget for 2021-2027, which was blocked by Poland and Hungary. However, as we can see, all these fears have no effect on the euro's rate. The single currency (euro) continues to trade in the upper area of the horizontal channel, and the US dollar cannot even rise in price by 1-2 cents. In a way, there is a stalemate. You can consider selling the pair, but only when a sell signal appears from MACD, and you can open buy positions, but first we must break the 1.1903 level. So now the only thing we can do is wait. Wait to see how the market will behave in the next few hours. And also wait for news from Europe and America. The EUR/USD pair has been trading very sluggishly this week. Volatility dropped to its lowest values, no more than 40-50 points each day. Therefore, the markets clearly need important new information to start trading more actively. Novice traders are advised to follow the development of the situation at this time and wait for a convenient time to open new positions. There are no major events scheduled in America today.

Possible scenarios for November 20:

1) Long positions are no longer relevant, since the price has settled below the upward trend line, therefore, the trend has changed to a downward trend. So now you can only return to buying the euro when the current downward trend has ended. Under current conditions, the only option is to overcome the 1.1903 level, which will mean that the pair will leave the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel.

2) Trading for a fall has become relevant at this time, since the trend has changed to a downward one. We currently face an upward correction, and you must wait for it to end so that you can open new short positions with targets at 1.1832 and 1.1791. However, if the price renews the previous local highs (1.1891 and 1.1894), this could mean that the upward movement will still be present. However, we still recommend considering selling before breaking the 1.1903 level.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Which currency may replace USD?

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Recently, many currencies, including major and secondary ones, have been trying to push the US dollar from the leading position and take its place. However, the forces are unequal, and the world's leading currency is again on its throne. At the same time, experts admit that sooner or later the greenback will have to give its status to some ambitious currencies.

After a short-lived drop, the US dollar managed to strengthen. However, the rise was halted by confusion of market participants who find it difficult to predict the dynamic of the US dollar. Moreover, the number of new coronavirus cases in the US is still advancing. As a result, the greenback is caught between two fires. On the one hand, it was bought as a haven asset or insurance in case of a worsening epidemiological situation. On the other hand, expectations that the Fed will loosen its monetary policy are also putting pressure on the currency.

Analysts suppose that these two factors may lead to the greenback's depreciation. On Thursday, November 19, the euro/dollar pair declined by 0.2% to 1.1827. However, later, it recouped some of its losses and returned to the previous range. Thus, on November 20, the pair is hovering near the levels of 1.1877-1.1878. Notably, the range is becoming wider.

At the moment, it is hardly possible that the US Fed will decide on budget support measures. The country's authorities are focused on the problems caused by the recent presidential election. However, market participants became puzzled after the Fed's proposal to expand the economic stimulus package. As a result, US Treasury bonds jumped amid the anticipation of impressive volumes of liquidity. The regulator was planning to buy Treasury bonds worth $12.82 billion. According to analysts, this has an extremely negative impact on the further dynamic of the greenback.

According to the recent report, the euro that is the greenback's main rival has surpassed it. Thus, data from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) showed that the share of the euro used in global payments increased dramatically over the past seven years. Last month, about 37.82% of money transfers in the world were made in the euro. During the reporting period, the share of the US dollar in international payments did not exceed 37.64%. A year earlier, it was 42%, experts emphasize.

However, the single currency is not the only rival of the dollar. There are several currencies that may replace the leading currency. Experts consider that currencies of countries that participate in the development of innovations and have high added value could become alternatives to the greenback. The most stable of them, in addition to the euro, are the Swiss franc, the yen, and the yuan. This year, the Chinese currency won the palm in this top three. Its growth was facilitated by the active recovery of the Chinese economy after the coronavirus crisis.

Despite the long-term weakening of the greenback, analysts urge not to panic and not to "bury" the main currency. Experts remind that the dollar is still the most resilient currency. Moreover, about 80% of all transactions in the global trade are made in dollars. This situation will continue in the coming decades, and the replacement of the greenback is likely to be gradual. However, the greenback will hardly leave the global financial arena forever. It is expected to share its power with other currencies, primarily with the euro.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 20, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro showed increased dynamics on average trading volumes, the range was 68 points. The support was provided by the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator did not manage to gain a foothold in the bears' territory and went back to the growth area. We have a rising trend on the four-hour chart. The nearest target 1.1903 is the MACD line on the daily chart.

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The daily chart shows that the situation also tends to rise, but the resistance of the MACD line looks strong, the price has pulled back from it twice in the last three days.

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If the euro gathers strength, it is possible to overcome the 1.1903 level and even reach the border of the price channel at 1.1938, but further growth is possible only with strong fundamental factors. In this case, the target is the 1.2010/40 range.

In general, the euro confirmed that it is not going to leave the wide free roaming zone of 1.1750-1.1930. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 20, 2020

GBP/USD

The last week of Brexit negotiations is drawing to a close. Zero progress in the last month. Theoretically, negotiations can be extended for another week, but since there is still no progress, it is unlikely that there will be one in a month. Obviously, the UK is preparing for a hard Brexit, and they are dragging out the process in an attempt to avoid panic. As we said earlier, the UK feels more relaxed with Joe Biden's victory, since under his rule, it can conclude a plan for large-scale cooperation with the United States. Therefore, the British government has a reason to delay its negotiations with the EU.

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Yesterday the pound sterling fell by 70 points, but was thrown back by foreign markets as it approached the daily MACD line, and so it closed the day by losing 8 points. The Marlin oscillator line is held in the downward direction. With equal probability, the price can once again fall to the MACD line (1.3180) and rise to the 1.3350/80 range. The MACD line moves horizontally, which indicates the neutrality of the current state of the market.

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The four-hour chart shows that yesterday, the price was unable to gain a foothold below the indicator lines, and then it turned to the upside from them. The Marlin oscillator has returned to the growth zone. The trend on both scales is considered upward but weak.

So, getting the price to settle below 1.3180 will direct it towards the first bearish target at 1.3050, this is the main scenario. The fallback suggests growth to the 1.3350/80 range, but again with a subsequent downward reversal.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 20, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar made an attempt to attack the daily MACD line yesterday. It failed, but the day closed with a more pronounced black candlestick than other counter-dollar currencies. Divergence with Marlin persists on the daily chart. Getting the price to settle below 0.7262 will make it possible for the aussie to attack the 0.7222 level, which opens the way to 0.7120. The probability of growth is 10-15%.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price has settled under the MACD line, but the price lacks speed to settle under the balance line, which is what buyers have used in the current situation. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves horizontally along the border where trends separate, with the greatest probability the line will turn to the downside from the border. We are waiting for the price to settle below the 0.7262 level and build up the bears' forces.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 20, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen continues to strengthen against the dollar, but is slowing down. Yesterday, the dollar attempted to break above the technical resistance at 104.05, which was not allowed to develop, but today the yen is weakening again in the Asian session. The daily chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning to the upside, which creates another opportunity for an attack at 104.05, especially on the last day of the week, when buyers of the yen can close positions.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price is settling below the 104.05 level. The Marlin oscillator is growing, which is creating a hitch in the USD/JPY pair's decline to the target level of 103.18. Perhaps this decline will extend until next week.

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Euro purchases will strengthen, Brexit spoils the picture of the pound

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Macroeconomic statistics disappointed investors and did not contribute to the development of full-fledged corrective sentiment for the Dollar. The number of first time applicants in Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week. This is probably due to new restrictions due to the pandemic, which may further slow the recovery of the labor market. It looks like President-elect Joe Biden will inherit a health care crisis and a weak economy.

Meanwhile, another report was better than the forecast. The number of home purchase and sale transactions in the US secondary market in October increased by 4.3% compared to September, to 6.85 million. At the same time, traders expected to see a decline of 1.2%.

In addition to the weak reports published recently, the pressure on the Dollar continues to be exerted by continuing political uncertainty in the United States. Additional risks come from the transfer of power from Donald Trump. The current President does not want to admit defeat and continues to fight for the results of voting in certain states to be declared invalid. Meanwhile, the Republican party did not approve Trump's nominee to the Federal Reserve's Board. The party has probably decided to distance itself from a Republican President who is losing power.

Given the news background and the current situation with the pandemic, investors are likely to bet on a currency with more pronounced protective properties such as the Swiss Franc. An additional factor in the growth of the Swiss currency may be the latest decision of the Central Bank to delay stimulus measures.

As for the Yen, the background is mixed today. Yes, excessive Dollar liquidity in the global financial system puts pressure on the quotes of the USD/JPY pair. However, it is worth noting that Pfizer must submit documents for registration of the Coronavirus vaccine next week. Earlier, Trump has repeatedly stated that the registration of the drug will take place as soon as possible in order to start vaccinating the population. In this scenario, the vaccine can be expected to appear by the New Year. The US stock market is likely to react with growth which means that the USD/JPY pair will receive support given its correlation with the S&P500 index.

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The Pound has every chance of testing a 2-month peak. A significant surplus of Dollar liquidity should play on the side of buyers of the British currency. In addition, the Pound may be supported by a growing energy market. Investors are building up long positions in oil, as Pfizer reported that at the final stage of clinical trials which has the effectiveness of 95%.

The news about Brexit is a deterrent. The Pound sank after it became known that European leaders will urge the EC to publish plans for a no-deal approach to Brexit as the deadline for the end of the year approaches.

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The Euro also has a chance to steal a march on the Dollar. Two factors will influence the balance of power in the EUR/USD pair. First of all, this is an excess of liquidity. Today, the financial system will be provided with five times more liquidity than the day before. The largest volume will arrive tomorrow when the Federal Reserve purchases $12.82 billion worth of treasuries.

The second reason is growing oil. An increase in black gold prices will put additional pressure on the Dollar as these assets have historically traded in different directions.

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It is worth noting that now, due to the weakness of the Dollar, it is increasingly about changing leadership. The Euro seems to be taking on this responsibility. In October. The volume of global payments in the single currency increased to 37.8%. This was recorded for the first time in the last 7 years.

The Dollar, which is the world's first reserve currency, has been declining in value for most of this year. If we take into account the March peaks, the US currency has since collapsed by more than 11%. Such changes may help strengthen the Euro's status as the world's second reserve currency.

Citigroup analysts made a bold forecast the day before, predicting a weakening of the Dollar next year by as much as 20%. They explained their expectations with the appearance of a medicine for Coronavirus. Mass vaccination, in their opinion, can revive the world economy and trade.

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EUR/USD. Political battles in Europe and the "COVID factor"

The Euro-dollar pair continues to trade flat without leaving the frame of the 18th figure. Over the past few days, there has been a positional struggle between the bulls and bears of the EUR / USD pair. For example, yesterday buyers tried to approach the borders of the 19th price level, while today sellers attempted a southern breakout to the 17th figure. But in the end, the price actually remained at the same positions. On the one hand, we are seeing quite high volatility, but on the other hand, these price movements are slow. The pair is caught in the grip of a contradictory fundamental background, so traders do not risk investing in either the dollar or the Euro.

Coronavirus is a common problem for both of the US and European currencies. However, depending on the circumstances, the so-called "COVID factor" affects currency positions in different ways. For example, last month, the Euro was under pressure from the coronavirus factor. In October, Europe was hit by the second wave of the pandemic - almost all countries began to sharply increase the incidence. Against the background of such trends, the key EU countries began to introduce lockdowns one by one. The strictest restrictive measures were introduced in France, the Czech Republic, Greece, and Italy. This cup did not pass through other States of the Alliance because quarantine in one form or another was introduced in all EU countries, including Germany. This fact put strong pressure on the Euro,

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However, at the moment, the situation has changed: now the dollar is under the roller of the coronavirus factor, while the Euro is more resistant to the consequences of the pandemic. The fact is that the European quarantine restrictions, which were introduced in early November, began to bear fruit. The total number of new cases in EU countries fell last week for the first time in three months, according to the BOE. While in the US, the situation is the same Since the beginning of this month, the daily rate of increase in the number of infected people does not fall below the 100 thousand mark. And over the past week, this sad indicator has been holding above the 150 thousand mark. The number of deaths is also growing: doctors warn that soon the number of deaths will be about 2 thousand people a day, which is more than at the peak of the first wave of coronavirus happened in the spring of this year. According to experts, the further development of events in the medium term will depend primarily on how the state and each of the States will respond to the development of the pandemic.

But the problem is that state governors have different assessments of risks and different responses to the situation. Some regions have imposed strict lockdowns, while other States ignore the threat. At the national level, there is also a stalemate: the trump administration refuses to repeat the spring scenario and Joe Biden will not have the appropriate authority until his inauguration. As a result, the coronavirus continues to capture the States. The situation is also uncertain with the package of additional assistance to the US economy. Let me remind you that the negotiations between Republicans and Democrats, which lasted for six months (from May to October) ended in failure. And now the parties will again have to sit down at the negotiating table, since the lower house of Congress (the House of representatives) remained under the control of the Democratic party, while the upper house (the Senate) is under the control of the Republican party. As they say, "who is still there."

The European currency is also under the yoke of its problems. The EU budget and the Alliance's economic rescue plan are on the agenda. If we will remember, Hungary and Poland blocked the final approval of the budget, opposing the new EU rules. According to these rules, Brussels can reduce payments to those countries that violate the principles of the rule of law. The corresponding complaints from human rights activists were often addressed to Budapest and Warsaw: Hungarians are criticized for implementing a strict policy against illegal migrants, and poles for judicial reform. In other words, both Hungary and Poland may not receive tens of billions of euros from EU funds. In fact, for this reason, representatives of these countries used their right of veto. Today it became known that the Hungarians were also supported by Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who is an ally of Viktor Orban, especially in the issue of countering mass migration. However, he only verbally expressed support, but did not join the blocking.

This fact put a little pressure on the Euro, especially after today's speech by ECB head Christine Lagarde. She expressed concern about the current situation and called on the EU governments to agree "without delay" on the allocation of resources from the anti-crisis Fund. At the same time, she stressed that fiscal stimulus should be a priority at the moment.

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However, at the end of the European session yesterday, the pressure on the EUR / USD pair eased. There is a General confidence in the market that Hungary and Poland will unblock the budget process as a result of political negotiations (which Germany has already joined). Also today, it was reported that Brussels can bypass the block and approve the EU rescue plan without the participation of "rebels". According to representatives of France, the EU leadership is currently studying the appropriate mechanisms.

Thus, in my opinion, the priority for the EUR / USD pair remains for long positions. In addition to coronavirus anti-records and political uncertainty, the dollar is losing ground against the background of weak macroeconomic reports. For example, retail sales were disappointed this week and an inflation report was released in the "red zone" last week. The European currency looks more attractive both in the context of coronavirus prospects and in the context of political factors. Therefore, from the current positions, you can consider purchases with the first goal at 1.1920 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The main resistance level is at 1.2000, but it is too early to talk about reaching this target.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 20. "Worthy finale": negotiations on a trade agreement were postponed for a "short

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 35.7753

The British pound sterling against the US dollar also traded lower for most of the past day. However, the upward trend was still maintained, as the price continued to be located above the moving average line. However, for the British pound, it will not be surprising for the price to consolidate below the moving average with the subsequent resumption of the upward trend, as it has been more than once in recent weeks and months. However, one extremely important fact we still need to note: the pound/dollar pair twice worked out the Murray level of "6/8"-1.3306 and bounced off it twice. Thus, it adds probability to the possible end of the upward trend. Recall that we have long questioned the validity of the growth of the British currency. From our point of view, the British currency should be in decline against the dollar, however, the market is ruled by traders, not news or fundamental background. Therefore, as long as market participants continue to buy the pound or sell the dollar, the upward trend continues.

However, no positive information is still being received from Brussels. Moreover, today, it became known that the negotiations were interrupted for a short period because one of the participants was diagnosed with COVID. Michel Barnier wrote about this on Twitter. He stated: "One of the negotiators on my team tested positive for COVID-2019. Together with David Frost, we decided to suspend negotiations for a short period. The teams will continue to work in compliance with all medical recommendations." However, the problem can now be much more serious than a break for a couple of days. First, it is unclear which of the negotiating teams has been infected yet. If Michel Barnier or David Frost are infected, the negotiations will have to be postponed indefinitely. But time is now the most important factor in negotiations. It is time that London and Brussels do not have at their disposal. Today is already November 20, and the negotiations were supposed to be completed by November 15 at the most, but it is already clear that they will continue next week (if they resume at all in the near future). So both groups can send a fervent greeting to Boris Johnson, who in the most difficult times for the whole world refused to extend the terms of the "transition period" to have more time to agree.

However, we can not say that the British currency began to fall in price on this sad news. As we said above, the pair only slightly corrected within the upward trend but failed to even overcome the moving average. This means that traders continue to believe in a miracle. I believe that the UK and the European Union will still be able to conclude a trade agreement. It is difficult to say how real these expectations are. We remind you that over the past four years, the lion's share of all periods when the pound showed growth fell on expectations, hopes, and rumors. That is, the pound in most cases grew when there were no fundamental reasons for this. Perhaps something similar is happening now. After all, we have repeatedly listed a whole list of factors with which the pound simply can not feel good. Yes, America is also far from all right. And the possible actions of Donald Trump in his remaining two months (we talked about them in the article on EUR/USD) can put strong pressure on the US currency. Plus, even without these actions, the United States is now full of problems, ranging from political to epidemiological. However, they are not as pronounced as in Britain. After all, in the Foggy Albion, not everything is in order with politics and with the epidemic. Boris Johnson has long been criticized by both Parliament and the British. In Parliament, it is opposed by opposition forces, in the country – by the residents of Great Britain themselves. The British are opposed to a strict quarantine (unjustified), blame the government for the high levels of morbidity and mortality from COVID-2019 (justified), and believe that the government should not allow the absence of a trade agreement with the EU. As for the pandemic, despite all the measures taken by Boris Johnson, for whom the economy is more important, the number of cases of infection continues to increase and is already on average 25-30 thousand cases per day. And Britain is in third place in Europe for the total number of infections - 1.4 million. Only France and Spain have more. Thus, the pound has no fundamental support from either the United States or Britain.

That is why we continue to believe that the upward movement should stop in the near future. This is supported by a fairly large number of technical factors. For example, the pair has twice worked out the 76.4% Fibonacci level on the daily timeframe. The grid is based on the last round of the fall and not overcoming the important enough level of 76.4% casts doubt on the possibility of further growth of the pair. Also, the pound has been getting more expensive for 8 months. Corrections during this period, of course, happened, but it's time for the upward trend to end. However, in any case, the first thing to do is to wait for the next price consolidation below the moving average line. And only after that, you can again count on a certain downward movement.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 80 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Friday, November 20, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3148 and 1.3306. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals the resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3123

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3245

R2 – 1.3306

R3 – 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started to adjust on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3367 in the event of a price rebound from the moving average line. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.3148, 1.3123, and 1.3062 if the price is fixed below the moving average line.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 20. Donald Trump's election defeat makes him America's number one enemy for the next

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 4.5967

The fourth trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was again fairly calm. The price was in a downward movement for most of the day and fixed below the moving average line. Thus, the most important thing we would like to note is: 1) the price again failed to overcome the level of 1.1900, which is the upper line of the side channel in which the pair has been trading for three months; 2) the short-term trend has again changed to a downward one, so now we can expect quotes to fall to the lower line of the side channel of 1.1700. Based on the fact that the pair again remained within the side channel, we can also draw the following conclusions: 1) traders still do not find any good reasons for new purchases of the euro; 2) traders do not see any reason for strong purchases of the US currency; 3) in the long term, the flat remains.

Meanwhile, some respected American publications are beginning to calculate the possible moves of Donald Trump for the remaining 60 days that he will spend in power. We have said many times before that Donald Trump is not one of those people who calmly accept defeat. The nature of the US leader is such that he will take revenge. Take revenge on everyone who prevented him from being re-elected for a second term. And this is not only our opinion, as many experts and many American publications believe. The first person who can be affected by "Trump's revenge" is China. First, because the head of the White House did not manage to win the trade war with Beijing. Moreover, it is more likely that Beijing won the trade war with Washington. At least, data on imports and exports of the United States and China in recent years allow us to draw this conclusion. Second, because Trump blames China for the pandemic. There is a certain logic in his words since it was from the Chinese province of Wuhan that the virus broke out. At the same time, Trump constantly forgets that a virus has infected the whole world, and the United States remains in first place for the number infected and deaths from the "coronavirus" because: 1) America has a very large population (respectively, there are more diseases and deaths than, for example, in Germany); 2) it was he who did not take the "Chinese virus" seriously and continues to do so even now when most countries of the world are introducing the second "lockdown". However, Trump does not care about his own mistakes, since, in his opinion, they do not exist. There is already information that Trump is preparing to impose new sanctions against Chinese officials, as well as to increase duties on imports from China.

Further, Trump's anger may fall on all of America. Not as revenge for the lost election, but as spoiling of the life of the future president of the country, Joe Biden. Then, Trump will be able to claim that he is better than Biden over the next four years and he will be able to run for president for a second time and have a chance of winning if Biden's results are unsatisfactory. According to the Daily Express, Trump can strike a blow to the country's finances and state security, or even become the instigator of mass riots in the country to stay in power for as long as possible. All these suspicions are not unfounded. For example, Joe Biden has already stated that Trump's refusal to admit defeat in the election and his refusal to peacefully transfer power will cost Americans thousands of lives since the current president does not want to share with the new government the most important information related to countering the "coronavirus" and vaccines. Also, Trump may unleash a new war with Iran and has already fired the Defense Secretary, who did not want to follow Trump's orders. If in the near future Trump appoints "his" Secretary of Defense, this will mean that in the last two months the chances of a new military conflict in the world will sharply increase. Moreover, Trump can wreak havoc within the US itself, and "his" Secretary of Defense can support Trump's actions with the army.

Many also pay attention to the fact that after the election defeat, Trump has already fired several high-ranking officials. We are talking about the same Secretary of Defense, the head of the Cyber Crime Directorate, Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Deputy Administrator of the US Agency for International Development, and head of the National Nuclear Security Administration. Also, Trump is going to fire the country's chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and CIA Director Gina Haspel. The first - constantly contradicts Trump on the issues of the pandemic, the second - refused to investigate the affairs of Trump's political competitors, the third - delayed the publication of secret documents related to the 2016 election. Thus, everyone who contradicted Trump or did not follow his orders now found themselves "under distribution". Also, the head of the special apparatus for the transfer of power refused to give Joe Biden and his team the $ 6.8 million required by law, which is allocated for the transition period (hiring new employees). In general, by all means, Trump is trying to prevent Biden from taking office and does not give him access to all state affairs that Biden should get in any case. After all, this is not the personal property of Trump. Potentially, Trump's actions could have a very negative impact on the entire country. The most eloquent example of what Trump can do and what the consequences could be can be seen in the "Trump clone" (as Joe Biden called him) Boris Johnson. The British Prime Minister developed a law that directly violates previously established agreements with the European Union, and the UK's reputation in the international arena immediately went down. Donald Trump can also reveal some state secrets or also contribute to reducing the international reputation of the United States. Moreover, inciting war with same Iran under certain conditions may allow Trump to impose a state of emergency and remain in the White House indefinitely.

It is easy to guess that all of the above will be negative factors for the US currency. While it is still inside the side channel and does not become cheaper in the long run. However, Trump's last two months may fix that.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 20 is 42 points and is characterized as "weak". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1799 and 1.1883. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up may signal a new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1780

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1902

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to consider short positions with targets of 1.1799 and 1.1780 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed down. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1883 and 1.1902.

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GBP / USD analysis on November 19: The British Pound is looking to fall, according to the wave marking, but is waiting for

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The construction of the upward trend section continues but the wave marking takes a complex form and may become more complicated several times. The section of the trend that began on September 23 has taken a five-wave form but it is not pulsed and may already be completed. Thus, the construction of a new three-wave section of the trend, or perhaps a more complex descending wave structure, could already begin. A successful attempt to break through the maximum of wave e may lead to its complication or complication of the entire upward section of the trend.

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The lower chart clearly shows the a-b-c-d-e waves of the uptrend section. This section may already be completed. If this is true, then the decline in quotes will continue from the current levels with targets located near the 29th figure and below. At the same time, the section that began on September 23 may take on an even longer form. Wave e may become more complex and take a pronounced five-wave form.

For the Pound/Dollar instrument, everything continues to depend on the news background on the Brexit negotiations. Unfortunately, the markets are not happy because there is still no information. The negotiations were supposed to end first on October 15, then on November 15, then on November 18. Today is the 19th and there is still no update on the current status of negotiations. I cannot say that the market just stands still without this information. However, I cannot deny that this information is very important and can have a strong impact on the movement of the instrument in the coming days and weeks. If both sides admit that it is impossible to conclude an agreement (at least in these conditions), this may not affect the British Pound in the best way. I have already said that the lack of official information generates a huge amount of speculation and guesses from the media, various publications, experts, and pseudo-experts. As a result, the market is only getting confused and it is becoming even more difficult to understand what is really happening. According to the latest information, it will finally be known what will happen to the negotiations tomorrow. However, this does not erase the possibility that Michel Barnier or David Frost may announce that they will be negotiating for a few more days on Friday.

Inflation in the UK rather unexpectedly pleased the markets. The British Pound even grew slightly on the information about an increase in inflation to 0.7%. But Andrew Bailey's speech once again did not provide any information for reflection. Thus, in general, market activity is now quite low.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Pound-Dollar instrument resumed building an uptrend but its last wave could have already ended. Thus, now I recommend looking closely at the sales of the instrument for each signal "down" of the MACD indicator. A new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indirectly indicate that the instrument is ready for a decline with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.3010 and 1.2864, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% for Fibonacci. I recommend waiting for it before opening sales of the tool. A successful attempt to break through the peak of the e wave will lead to more complex wave markings.

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