Control zones for USD/CHF on 04/22/20

The pair continues to form an upward pattern. The target for growth remains at the weekly control zone 1/2 0.9777-0.9759. Upon reaching this zone, it is necessary to close part of the purchases and monitor the formation of a sell pattern. So far, sales remain a priority in the medium-term, since the downward pattern is not complete.

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The upward movement of the last three days indicates a strong resistance. Each new point of growth is given with great difficulty. This increases the probability of rapid movement in the coming days.

An alternative pattern for resuming the decline will be developed if the closing of today's trading occurs below yesterday's opening. This will allow you to form an "absorption" pattern at the daily level. The target of the decline will be the WCZ 0.9461-0.9429. It can be noted that the bearish movement is still a priority in the medium-term, thus, it is necessary to pay attention to the patterns that are formed in the direction of strengthening the franc.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Best time for speculators, oil has plunged into a deep peak; Overview of NZD and AUD

The panic sale in the oil market, caused by a sharp decline in demand amid a pandemic and the fullness of storage facilities, led to stock sales and an increase in demand for defensive assets, but the market reaction should still be considered restrained. As of 6:00 UTC on Wednesday, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 and the Chinese Shanghai Composite are trading in positive territory, while the Japanese Nikkei is slightly declining.

The resulting panic is mostly related to "paper traders" who are in difficult conditions due to the inability to reset delivery contracts before expiration. Oil pressure will continue until the start of the OPEC ++ agreement, but the world will more closely monitor the situation with the spread of coronavirus and look for positive signals.

The main factor that can support NZD and AUD in the current difficult conditions is the growing probability of weakening quarantine measures and the opening of the economy. These expectations are based on a marked decline in the rate of spread of coronavirus.

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Here, New Zealand lowered the quarantine risk from 4 to 3, which could return to work about 500 thousand workers after April 27. Australia will announce some measures to weaken in the middle of the week, right up to the opening of beaches in Sydney. And any news on this subject will block the negative from panic in the oil market and will contribute to the restoration of NZD and AUD.

NZD/USD

Head of RBNZ, Adrian Orr, stated the opinion of RBNZ that a negative rate is not excluded and that the Bank will think about additional incentives in May, along with a comment that the government will also want to issue more debts. This is in line with the market consensus that the RBNZ will seek to expand its QE program at the May meeting. Apparently, we need to wait for further steps to "monetize debt" when the government launches new and new obligations on the market, and the RBNZ supports it by expanding the QE program.

According to the CFTC report, the cumulative short position declined slightly last week, but uncertainty remains high. On the one hand, the estimated price is still higher than the spot price, which is a bullish factor for NZD, while the estimated price has a clear downward trend.

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The key support for the Kiwi is 0.5920/30, when breaking through it, you can sell in expectation of increased downward movement with the nearest goal of 0.5840 and further 0.5700. At the same time, a decline in panic can provoke an increase in NZD amid weakening of quarantine measures, which will give the Kiwi a certain advantage against other currencies. In this case, the resistance is 0.6060/70, and there will be a choice for further directions.

AUD/USD

The economic downward reversal set off by the coronavirus epidemic has led to a strong weakening of both monetary and fiscal policies, which will cost the Australian economy around 12% of GDP according to NAB. The budget deficit will decrease to 4.5% in 2020 and up to 13% in 2021, while public debt can reach its highest level since the 1960s.

Moreover, the measures taken are primarily aimed at supporting wages (about $ 130 billion), 32 billion will go to support small and medium-sized businesses and special measures aimed at supporting consumer demand in the amount of 23 billion in the next 2 months. On the other hand, pension funds, tax breaks to support investment in business are not overlooked. States are reimbursing health care costs for banks, mechanisms of "emergency funding" of at least 90 billion have been created.

All these measures, as well as many other smaller measures, will lead to the largest budget deficit after the 2nd World War.

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With regard to significant decline in commodity prices, the chances of Australian currency to continue to grow are declining. The estimated level of AUD/USD is still higher than the spot level, but the total short position on AUD has increased. As a result, speculators are trading on a further decline in the Australian dollar.

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The key support is the level of 0.6250, the decline of which can strengthen sales and move AUD/USD to the 0.6160/6200 zone, this is currently the most likely scenario. Growth is limited to 0.6350/60, where sales may resume.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendation for GBP/USD on April 22, 2020

There was no sign of trouble for the pound yesterday. Even the labor market data, which put investors in a state of bewilderment, actually contributed to marking its spot. US data clearly did not belong to the category that can have a noticeable impact on the mood of market participants. But the problems came quite suddenly. It turns out that the British real estate market, which grew at a fairly impressive pace in previous years, is heavily inflated with loans, which is problematic in the current conditions. The coronavirus epidemic and containment measures for its dissemination have already begun to affect the ability of borrowers to meet their obligations on mortgage loans. Such a situation can trigger exactly the same mechanisms that once caused the crisis in the UK back in 2008. A number of British banks said that mortgage loans are becoming problematic for them, which means their financial stability can be seriously shaken. The financial problems of banks will automatically spread to other sectors of the economy. And this is why the pound fell yesterday.

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At the same time, pulling down the pound using US data is clearly not going to work, since it was published after this very process began. Moreover, a decrease of 8.5% in sales in the secondary housing market is unlikely to contribute to the dollar's growth.

Secondary Home Sales (United States):

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Perhaps the only news that matters today is British inflation, which should slow down from 1.7% to 1.3%. The very fact of a further and rather rapid decline in inflation can please a few people. The pound clearly has no reason to grow from a macroeconomic point of view. The story with mortgages will also put a lot of pressure on the pound. This topic will obviously not disappear from the agenda and, most likely, will only grow. So in general, the pound looks extremely weak.

Inflation (UK):

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In terms of technical analysis, an increase in activity is recorded, during which the pound sterling loses its position and goes down to the level of 1.2246, where a local slowdown has formed. In fact, we returned to the limits of April 7, and this is about 80% of the previous cycle.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, we see movement from the level of 1.2620, which has grown from an imperceptible pullback to an inertial move.

It can be assumed that the existing retreat/stagnation of 1.2250/1.2305 is temporary in nature, where a new round of acceleration is not ruled out. So, in case you consolidate prices below 1.2240, it will open the way to the main support point of 1.2150, relative to which it will be clear whether we can continue the downward development in terms of recovery.

We specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider short positions lower than 1.2240, with the prospect of a move to 1.2150-1.2160.

- We consider long positions in terms of a local burst of activity from a value of 1.2310 to 1.2350.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the sell signal is preserved relative to hourly and daily periods.

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Control zones for NZD/USD on 04/22/20

The NZD/USD pair is trading between two significant zones today. The resistance is in the weekly control zone 1/2 0.6012-0.6005. As long as the price is below this zone, the downward movement remains an impulse. The probability of updating the weekly minimum is 75%, which allows us to consider sales when the specified zone is being tested.

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The accumulation zone formed by the movement during the last four days is the main one for creating trading plans. It is necessary to use extremes to find patterns for buying and selling the pair.

The option to cancel the downward movement will be developed if the closing of today's trading occurs above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for growth to a weekly control zone of 0.6095-0.6080. Therefore, it is important to understand that this will all work within the medium-term accumulation zone, so purchases should be partially consolidate when updating the maximum of the current week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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USD/CAD IPDA 60 Day Ranges Price Movement For April 22, 2020

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As we can see on the 4-hour chart Loonie remains now in the premium array area. it means that USD/CAD may decline. The Divergence between the CCI (30) is also indicating such a probability. During the Covid 19 outbreak the Crude Oil price plunged. The pair could reach the 1.4264-1.4275 levels before it drops again. USD/CAD is unlikely to break above 1.4349.

The overall bias for USD/CAD is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

In a note published on April 15, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City stated that Bitcoin is definitely not a safe haven, noting that as an asset it is far more risky than gold.

The central bank branch cited data from which it follows that Bitcoin shows a positive correlation with the S&P 500 index during periods of decline. 10-year treasury bonds and gold were at the opposite pole - negative correlation with S&P 500 was observed here. This shows that BTC has not achieved safe harbor status.

Although many agree with the Federal Reserve that Bitcoin is not digital gold, others note that this does not mean that the cryptocurrency will not become a safe haven. Gold has been on the markets for thousands of years, and BTC for a decade, but an increasing number of investors believe that buying BTC during a crisis is not a bad idea. For example, Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX, wrote in a blog post that he believes investors should now buy BTC and gold. He referred to the fact that central banks today print money for power, which in the long run will reduce their value. On the other hand, BTC cannot be reprinted in this way.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading close to the main channel lower boundary for some time now, but still there is no decisive move in this market. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the middle of the range as the local low was made at the level of $6.706. The momentum is decreasing and moving into a negative teritorry, so the bears might extend the move down again. Please watch the level of nearest technical resistance located at $6,908 to invalidate the downward scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,288

WR2 - $7,759

WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596

WS1 - $6,675

WS2 - $6,137

WS3 - $5,855

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Trading idea for EUR/USD

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Good afternoon! A trading idea for EUR/USD:

The pair is rallying in a horizontal channel with fairly clear horizontal boundaries. I suggest lowering the rates from a false breakdown of the upper border - above the quote of 1.09, with further retention of short positions to 1.08:

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Main target for sales is April's low at 1.07700.

On D1, the instrument exited the triangle down:

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The trading idea is based on "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods.

Good luck!

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Steep dive: oil market is setting new records again

The oil market is already competing with the coronavirus in the information space. Although these topics are interrelated, the focus of the market has clearly shifted – most experts primarily discuss the fall in oil prices. Commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar are the most affected in the context of the foreign exchange market. The US dollar also did not stay away: the latest trends in the oil market have a beneficial effect on the greenback, as it is again used as a protective tool. The dollar index is still staying above the 100-point value after a temporary decline last week.

Let me remind you that an anti-record was set on the oil market on Monday - the price of WTI May oil futures fell below zero for the first time in the history of exchange trading. Quotes declined to the level of -40 dollars per barrel. None of the traders wanted to buy a contract that expired the next day and required them to take delivery of it. There was no demand for them even when market participants offered to pay extra for the purchase of such futures. Energy companies do not physically have enough space to store oil.

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At first, the currency market actually ignored the collapse of WTI May futures – the dollar slightly rose, but only due to general nervousness and the absence of other more or less significant fundamental factors. Moreover, a sharp drop in prices occurred at the time of execution of contracts. But further events forced us to take the situation more seriously. First of all, WTI May futures could not stay in positive territory following a short-term growth – their value went into negative territory again yesterday. June futures also showed a downward trend – their value is hovering around $10-11 at the moment. After WTI, Brent also fell – the price of a barrel of this oil brand reached the level of $18.1 yesterday - this is 30% lower than the value of trade when it closed on Monday and it is also the lowest value since December 2001. The negative dynamics continued today – at the moment, the Brent June futures are trading at the level of $16, and a few hours ago, the price fell below this target – for the first time since 1999.

According to a number of experts, it may soon repeat the fate of the May contract for WTI, collapsing into the negative area. In my opinion, this is an unlikely option, although there are certain prerequisites for implementing this scenario. So, against the background of recent trends, OPEC members decided to hold a video conference today to determine a strategy for overcoming the crisis. However, according to Reuters, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates will not participate in the online meeting. This fact reduces the significance of this dialogue to zero, since these countries are the largest oil producers. Moreover, some experts believe that oil producers will not be able to reduce production levels to the low that is necessary in order to offset the overall situation

It is also worth recalling that the recently reached OPEC+ agreement was not easy for the cartel's members - in particular, representatives of Mexico even made a demarche and subsequently agreed to participate in the deal only on "favorable" terms. However, this agreement turned out to be ineffective - in general opinion, a ten percent trim in production amid the epidemic and extremely low demand is too insignificant. The supply still exceeds demand, and this situation concerns not only WTI - Americans simply appeared in the forefront of events. The largest oil storage facilities in the US are filled to capacity, oil is stored even in the holds of ships and in railway tanks. Amid a large-scale lockdown, demand for Brent crude oil, which also sets long-term anti-records today, has significantly decreased. At the same time, experts doubt that OPEC+ members will be able to quickly find a way out of this situation. Yesterday's demarche of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE served as an additional confirmation of this assumption.

Despite such a fever in the oil market, the foreign exchange market has been relatively calm. The dollar is gradually increasing momentum, and the drop in oil prices primarily affects the dynamics of commodity currencies. For example, the Canadian dollar fell to the 42nd figure against the greenback. After the March rush surrounding the greenback, the USD/CAD pair tried to conquer this price level several times in vain. Today, the bulls of the pair are making another attempt. The closest resistance level is 1.4270 - this is the upper line of the BB indicator, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart) - from current positions, you can consider purchases at this price level.

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It should also be noted that data on the growth of Canadian inflation will be released today during the US session. The consumer price index should go into the negative area (on a monthly basis) for the first time since December 2019. Negative dynamics are also expected in annual terms. If the release turns out to be worse than the predicted values, the loonie can not only break through the resistance level of 1.4270, but also test the 43rd figure.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A hacker who stole $ 25 million in crypto from the dForce decentralized financial protocol over the weekend gave up almost all funds. According to data from the Ethereum blockchain, many transactions were initiated today from the Lendf.Me Hack address to the Lendf.Me project administrator's address. Many of them included very large amounts, e.g. for 57,992 thousand Ethereum, worth about 10 million dollars.

Other transactions included various US dollar-related stablecoins, such as USDT, BUSD, TUSD, DAI, USDC, HUSD and PAX, for a total value of nearly $ 10 million. Also returned 581 chip units that are associated with Bitcoin, for a total of about $ 4 million. Interestingly, the hacker did not return the exact amount of funds he had stolen, but returned some of these values in other types of tokens, but everyone confirmed that they had recovered the stolen funds.

At this stage, it is not known why the hacker did not simply return the stolen resources, and even why they were returned at all. Lendf is one of the two protocols supported by the dForce Foundation.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $165.65, after the Pin Bar candlestick pattern was made at the top of the move. This means the bears were testing the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $168.25. So far the bulls has manage to push the price towards the level of $173.12, which is the lower boundary of demand zone, but the bulls keeps fighting back and are currently testing this level from below. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $240.86

WR2 - $214.90

WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55

WS1 - $159.05

WS2 - $132.99

WS3 - $117.12

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 22/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

Another lower low was made overnight at GBP/USD market as the bears pushed the price towards the level of 1.2246. The larger time frame trend remains up, but in the short-term the bears are in control of the market and the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2165. Please notice, that the level of 1.2165 had been providing support for some time now, so any violation of this level will lead to a deeper sell-off towards 1.2000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2855

WR2 - 1.2741

WR1 - 1.2613

Weekly Pivot - 1.2507

WS1 - 1.2367

WS2 - 1.2267

WS3 - 1.2125

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 22/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a local low at the level of 1.0812 before the local consolidation took place. During the Asian trading session this level had been tested again, but no breakout lower occured. The bulls tried to bounce towards the level of 1.0893, which is a short-term technical resistance for the price, but failed to extend the rally. This indcates a possible increase in the bearish activity soon, so it is worth to keep an eye on the local support at 1.0812. Any violation of this level will lead to the test of the key short-term support located at the level of 1.0778.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1134

WR2 - 1.1063

WR1 - 1.0956

Weekly Pivot - 1.0883

WS1 - 1.0784

WS2 - 1.0701

WS3 - 1.0600

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Euro to continue trading within channel until EU summit. Pressure on pound likely to ease. Forex forecast for April 22

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

The breakout of 1.0860 will lead to the euro's upward movement towards the area of 1.0894 and 1.0937.

The breakout of 1.0840 will lead to the euro's downward movement towards the area of 1.0814 and 1.0770.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

If the price breaks through the level of 1.2302, the pound is likely to gain ground to the area of 1.2358 and 1.2417.

If the price breaks through the level of 1.2260, the pound is likely to sank to the area of 1.2230 and 1.2173.

Fundamental data:

UK Consumer Price Index

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 22. Pound to remain under pressure after inflation data. Sellers aim for

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's data on the UK labor market did not greatly impress traders, which resulted in the pound being sold. Pressure on the pair persisted during the US session. At the moment, the bulls need a return to the resistance of 1.2302, which formed today during the morning trading. Good data on inflationary pressure in the UK will allow the bulls to gain a foothold above 1.2302, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the resistance area of 1.2358 and 1.2417, where I recommend taking profits. However, one should not forget about the moving averages, which slightly goes above the resistance of 1.2358. Therefore, problems could arise with the pound's growth in the area of 1.2331. In case the pair falls further according to the trend, it is best to pay attention to a rebound from the low of 1.2229, where a divergence can also form on the MACD indicator, which will lead to a sharp increase in the pair by 30-40 points. In the absence of bullish activity, it is best to postpone pound purchases until the test of a low of 1.2173.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The primary task of the pound sellers is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2302, as well as maintaining the 1.2331 level, where the moving averages pass. Poor data on inflation in the UK could form a new sell signal, which will open a direct path for GBP/USD to the low of 1.2229, where I recommend taking profits, since most likely a bullish divergence will form on the MACD indicator. A weekly target of the bears will be a low of 1.2173. In case the pound grows above the resistance of 1.2302, and against the background of a lack of sellers even after meeting with moving averages, it is best to look at short positions only after a test of a high of 1.2358, or even higher, in a larger area of 1.2417.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the bear market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair grows, the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2331 will act as resistance. A break of the lower border at 1.2260 will raise the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Translation
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 22. The euro's direction is not defined, but sellers control the market.

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's data on the eurozone did not help the single currency, which continued to trade in the side channel along with the US dollar. The pair is currently located in the middle of the channel of 1.0851 and its direction is not determined, since a lot depends on the EU summit tomorrow, at which the parties will again try to agree on a financial assistance plan, as well as an increase in the EU budget. The bulls will try to gain a foothold at the 1.0851 level in the morning, which will be a signal to buy the euro in hopes of breaking through the upper border of the downward channel and updating the high of 1.0894. However, the bulls' long-term goal at the end of the week will be the resistance of 1.0937, where I advise taking profits. In case the euro declines further due to the lack of fundamental statistics, one can look at long positions after forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.0814, or buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the April low of 1.0770.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers need to return the pair to the 1.0851 level, around which trading is ongoing. Testing this area on the volume from the bottom up will be a signal to open short positions, since there is no reason to count on weak fundamental data on the eurozone economy today. A bad insider news at the EU summit will also put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal of the bears is the lower border of the side channel at 1.0814, a break which will raise the pressure on the pair and will lead to updating the April low at 1.0770, where I recommend taking profits. With a EUR/USD growth scenario above resistance at 1.0851 in the morning, short positions are best returned to a rebound from a high of 1.0894, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day, or selling the euro from a larger resistance at 1.0937.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0870. The pair will be supported by the lower border at 1.0835.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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USD/CAD testing upside confirmation, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4165

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit :1.4292

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.3996

Reason for Stop loss: 61.8% fibonacci retracement

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Hot forecasts and trading signals for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on April 22

EUR/USD 1H

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As we expected, the euro/dollar pari could not overcome the lower border of the side channel on the hourly chart on April 21. There was a rebound from the 1.0817 support line, an upward movement that ended near the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, as we predicted. Then there was a rebound from these lines and a downward movement began. Therefore, the side channel now remains relevant, and, accordingly, the movement inside this channel, between its upper and lower borders, may continue for some time. Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for April 22:

1) We expect quotes to fall, at least, to the area of 1.0817, from which there were rebounds earlier. Thus, those traders who are in shorts can stay in them for this purpose. If this level is exceeded, you are advised to maintain sales with the target of 1.0793.

2) It is very likely for quotes to rebound from the 1.0817 level. If it happens, the pair will continue to trade inside the side channel. Therefore, in this case, traders are advised to buy the euro in order to get the Senkou Span B line (1.0878). The potential to take profit in this case will again be around 60 points.

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair continues to move down and, in accordance with yesterday's forecast, fell after breaking the level of 1.2388 to the support level of 1.2276. Then the upward correction began. Therefore, correctional movement with the target of 1.2388 is possible on April 22, however, it is unlikely for the pair to be able to work out this level. We believe that the downward movement is more likely to continue today. Thus, the current intraday picture suggests the following trading ideas:

1) Overcoming the support level of 1.2276 could provoke an even greater drop in pound's quotes. In this case, we recommend selling the pair while aiming for the support area of 1.2198 - 1.2216. If it is done without any problems, you are advised to sell positions with the target of 1.2147.

2) Rebounds from important levels and support areas are possible, however, in the current environment, we consider it too risky to open longs on a strong downward trend. Thus, in this situation, we advise you to only consider purchases above the downward trend line. The target is 1.2629.

We highlight the UK inflation data among the important macroeconomic events today. Although in general we believe that traders will continue to ignore the macroeconomic background.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD rejected right below descending trendline resistance. Further push down expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.63470

Reason for Entry: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance

Take Profit : 0.62092

Reason for Take Profit: -61.8% , -27% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.64095

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.76955

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.71778

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal overlap support, 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.79977

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 22, 2020

EUR/USD

There were no changes on the daily euro chart over the past day - the daily fluctuation was 60 points, but the day nearly closed at the opening level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves strictly horizontally in the negative trend zone. The general trend is decreasing, we expect the euro to decline to support the embedded line of the price channel in the region of 1.0610.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator rose to the border of the growth territory on the four-hour chart over the past day, but the price stopped by the balance indicator line. Therefore, in the current situation, the growth of Marlin is considered as the indicator continuing to discharge before a further decrease.

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Nevertheless, the probability of the oscillator moving into a zone of positive values creates a risk of a price increase, possibly even to the MACD line, to the 1.0928 area. A signal of the euro's decisive decline is when the price drops below the low of the 17th (1.0812).

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 22, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar lost more than 50 points on Tuesday, which completed the main task from the technical side - it closed the day under the MACD line on the daily chart. If it also closes below this line today, then the price will consolidate below it and the prospect of a medium-term decline will become even closer. The Marlin Oscillator is going down.

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The first goal of the decline is to support the price channel at around 0.6175. Overcoming the price channel line opens the way to 0.5798.

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Marlin formed a convergence on the four-hour scale. But the price is under both indicator lines - the balance and MACD line, which creates the risk of convergence going into a further decline. This issue will be resolved with a price transition below yesterday's low of 0.6255. In this case, we are waiting for a movement to the nearest target 0.6175.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 22, 2020

USD/JPY

External pressure on the USD/JPY pair from the stock market is increasing, which we mentioned in yesterday's review. The US stock index S&P 500 fell by 3.07% on Tuesday, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 is losing 1.67% today. Despite this, the price grew by 19 points, staying within the consolidation range of 107.18-108.10.

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The price is still below the balance line on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is trapped in a downward wedge, we are waiting for the price to break down. After practicing the first target level of 106.85 (which in fact is not so much a goal as a signal level of medium-term movement), the main goal of 102.40 opens.

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The price is above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart. The downward movement will develop only after the price returns below 107.18, which coincides with the April 16 low. We look forward to further developments.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 22. The quarantine in the UK can be extended until the end of the year. The second round

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -238.8254

The British pound continues to fall quite strongly against the US currency on April 22. Some experts believe that this fall was triggered by weak data on wages and unemployment for February in the UK. However, we believe that this package of statistical information has nothing to do with it. We remind you once again that market participants have been ignoring any macroeconomic statistics for a month and a half, and yesterday, according to the same British reports, the country recorded only 12,000 applications for unemployment benefits in March, while forecasts predicted at least 175,000. Thus, yesterday's package of statistics can be considered even positive for the British currency, however, this currency lost almost 200 points during the day. Based on this, we believe that the reasons for the fall in the pound are purely technical. After a downward movement of 1,700 points in 10 days, the pair has corrected by almost 70% and now it is time to either resume the downward trend (then the pair should go below 1.1500) or "correction against correction" (then we expect a decline to the level of 1.1900). In almost any case, except for the unexpected, the pair is now waiting for a drop in quotes.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who recently recovered from a "coronavirus" infection, according to unconfirmed information, is in favor of extending the quarantine measures. In chronological order, Johnson's statements on "coronavirus" are as follows. At first, Boris Johnson was not opposed to the fact that the majority of British people got sick with the virus and formed a "collective immunity". At this time, the Prime Minister made a mournful face and warned that "many families may lose relatives and friends." After that, the Prime Minister, with a delay of about 1 month, nevertheless imposed quarantine, however, according to many doctors, "light" quarantine is quite enough. Then Boris Johnson got sick himself with "coronavirus". And now, when he is undergoing rehabilitation and has assessed the danger of the pandemic, he believes that it is impossible to remove the quarantine on May 11. Otherwise, the "second wave" of the epidemic can not be avoided. Thus, until Johnson himself fell ill with the "Chinese infection", he adhered to the policy of Donald Trump on this issue. After that, the rhetoric changed dramatically. It is expected that the quarantine in the UK may even be extended until the end of 2020, or until a vaccine is found or the number of cases goes down. And the number of cases and deaths from the epidemic in the UK is not declining. Over the past 24 hours, another 4,300 new cases of the disease were recorded in Britain, and the number of deaths was 823, which is almost twice as much as the day before. The total number of deaths in Britain is already about 18,000, which gives one of the highest death rates in the world – well above 10%. It is also reported that real death rates in Britain are even higher. We have already said that the official statistics do not include deaths outside of hospitals, such as in nursing homes.

Meanwhile, in a video format, the second round of negotiations between Britain and the EU on post-Brexit relations has begun. Both sides claim that they intend to make serious progress by June 1, but experts say that there is very little chance of true progress in the negotiations in such a short period. Meanwhile, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is calling on Boris Johnson to extend the "transition period" by two years. Earlier there was a threat of termination of all agreements between Brussels and London, which would not allow Britain to trade duty-free with the EU and, accordingly, would inflict another blow on the British economy. And this did not frighten Boris Johnson. Now, when the UK economy suffers global losses due to the crisis and epidemic, the absence of an agreement with the EU can simply finish it off. In any case, Boris Johnson is still out of business, and we do not know whether his opinion on the issue of the "transition period" has changed under the new conditions. Perhaps the Prime Minister will still listen to the voice of reason and will go to prolong the validity period, as the European Union calls for him to do.

On Wednesday, April 22, the UK is scheduled to publish inflation for March. According to experts' forecasts, the annual inflation rate will slow down to 1.3%-1.5%. However, from our point of view, this report will not have any impact on the currency pair again. We still believe that the main reasons for the fall in the pound are technical. At least for the time being.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair has stopped decreasing and is currently 143 points. In the last 20 trading days, the pair almost every day passes from 100 to 200 points. Therefore, we can say that volatility is now stable. On Wednesday, April 22, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2130 and 1.2416. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a round of upward correction within the new downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2268

S2 - 1.2207

S3 - 1.2146

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2329

R2 - 1.2390

R3 - 1.2451

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a strong downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, traders are now recommended to stay in the sales of the pound with the goals of 1,2207 and 1,2146 until the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. It is recommended to consider buying the British currency not before fixing traders above the moving average, which is not expected in the near future.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 22. Donald Trump begins a confrontation with Democratic governors. Americans support

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -74.5317

The EUR/USD currency pair was trading within the same fairly narrow price range of 1.0817-1.0900 during the second trading day of the week. Thus, the flat is maintained for the time being, but the downward trend is also maintained, since the pair's quotes do not jump up and down, being fixed either above the moving average or below it. Accordingly, the current situation is twofold. If the pair remains between the moving average line and the level of 1.0817, it will be a very narrow price range. In such a narrow channel, the pair is unlikely to be able to spend a long time. Thus, today, there will be a closing over the moving, which will keep the pair in the side channel until the level of 1.0900 is overcome, or there will be closing under the level of 1.0817, which will trigger a resumption of the downward movement. One way or another, but at the moment, there are no signs of completion of the flat. This means that you should either trade inside the channel on lower timeframes or refrain from opening any positions until the end of the flat.

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for the third trading day of the week in the United States and the European Union. Thus, the fundamental background for the euro/dollar pair today will not be available or it will be reduced only to news, statements, etc., which are not planned in advance and cannot be predicted. In principle, we continue to track all the most important messages anyway. Of course, the main newsmaker in the world remains Donald Trump. In a previous article, we said that at least 15 states of America held a few rallies. The Americans called on the authorities to lift the quarantine, harshly criticized the governors, and called for "giving them their lives back." Immediately, Donald Trump said that he admired these people, calling them "real Americans". However, such attacks of Trump's admiration for the protesters are not surprising. After all, it is the US President who is interested in opening economic borders as soon as possible and ending the quarantine. However, even then, we questioned the legitimacy and integrity of these rallies. First, very few people participated in them. What is a few thousand people at a single rally? For comparison, America now has about 30 million unemployed people who have become so in the last 6 weeks. Where are the 30 million with calls to end the quarantine? That's right, they stay at home and do not violate this very quarantine. Why? Because work is work, economy is economy, and people's life and health are the same. 90% of Americans are not ready to risk their lives so that Donald Trump can restart the economy, so that in six months he has a chance of re-election. Thus, we consider these rallies to be just a show-off. According to recent polls, a large part of the American population just supports the state governors, who insist on maintaining quarantine measures, fearing new outbreaks of the "coronavirus" epidemic. Moreover, more than 50% of the American population believes that Donald Trump and his administration did not cope with the pandemic. Recall that Trump himself previously stated that "if not for his government, up to 250,000 Americans could have died." Well, a little later, he accused the WHO of all the deadly sins. A little later – China. At the moment, the number of deaths in the United States has crossed the 40,000 mark, and the total number of patients is approaching 800,000.

The opinions of protesters who consider "that the Democrats are trying to undermine the economy in order to use it against the president" are also very interesting." We believe that it is absolutely clear to any more or less knowledgeable person how absurd this judgment is during a crisis and pandemic. Any economy will suffer quite a lot in any case. But Donald Trump supports the protesters and has even already declared that he has the necessary authority to complete the quarantine in the country. However, some media immediately reminded the American leader that there are "no kings" in their country. After that, Trump somewhat reduced his fervor and left it to the governors of each state to make their own decisions on the abolition of quarantine measures. The Governor of Washington, one of the most affected states, believes that Trump's actions "incite violence" and the Washington Post has even found several people who urge people to go to rallies and post information about the authorities' strong exaggeration of the danger of "coronavirus." Also, we have already found the threads leading to Donald Trump himself. According to the publication, many rallies were organized by deputies of the Republican party. And of course, the main claims of Trump are addressed to those states whose governors are Democrats. It is even difficult to imagine the scale of political wars here. More recently, Democrats were at war with Trump in an impeachment case. Now, it seems that the confrontation continues under the guise of a worldwide epidemic. It is quite possible that some states really do not want to curtail the quarantine in order to prevent the US economy from recovering for as long as possible, which will significantly reduce the chances of Trump winning the presidential election. However, the position of Democratic governors is now very favorable. The COVID-2019 virus continues to spread across the United States, and no one can blame them for unnecessary quarantine measures.

As a "cherry on the cake" - a law that can be signed by Donald Trump in the coming days, on the prohibition of immigration "under the sauce" to maintain jobs for the American population. This law may prohibit the issuance of green cards and work visas on a temporary basis. It is not known how long this restriction will last. "Against the backdrop of an attack from an invisible enemy, and in order to protect the jobs of our wonderful American citizens, I will sign an order temporarily halting immigration to the United States," Trump wrote on Twitter.

So far, the euro currency paired with the dollar does not react to all these events. Thus, our assumptions come true that now traders will need new serious reasons to trade the pair more actively and start forming a new trend. So far, we do not see how the flat can end. At the same time, we should not lose sight of the fact that the pair may be overwhelmed by a new wave of panic. For example, the British pound is already trading with increased activity. At any moment, major players can start making large transactions, which will provoke new strong price changes in the euro currency exchange rate.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 21 is 84 points. Thus, fears for a new wave of panic in the market are still untenable, and market participants continue to lower their level of activity. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0762 and 1.0930, and in general – quiet trading in the side channel of 1.0817-1.0900. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may indicate a new attempt to start a downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade inside the side channel. Thus, traders are advised to wait for the exit from this channel, fixing below the level of 1.0817 and again trade down with the goals of 1.0762 and 1.0742. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair if the price is fixed above the moving average line and the level of 1.0900 with the goals of 1.0930 and 1.0986.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com