Analysis of Gold for March 26, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1.312.00 We expect downside movement.

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Gold did breakout of the 5-day upward trendline, which acted like support for days. This is a sign that buyers lost the interest in the Gold and that sellers started the distribution process. We do expect potential test of the short-term support at $1.303.15 and then potently the testing of $1.298.90 and $1.293.00. Key short-term resistance is set at the price of $1.323.70.

Trading recommendation: We exited long position and started to sell Gold from $1.314.20 with targets at $1.303.15, $1.298.90 and $1.293.00. Protective stop is placed at $1.324.00.

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GBP/USD. March 26. The trading system. "Regression Channels". British Parliament seizes control of Brexit

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -20.9130

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to trade along the moving average line. Meanwhile, the British parliament realized that Theresa May could not offer anything new except for her Brexit plan, and her only strategy was to threaten the government with a "tough" version of Brexit and took control of the situation. A member of the Conservative Party, Oliver Letwin, put to the vote an amendment that allows the parliament on March 27 to vote for absolutely any Brexit options, and this amendment was adopted by a majority of parliamentarians. Thus, on March 27, bypassing Theresa May, the parliament will vote for all sorts of scenarios of leaving the EU, including a repeated referendum and a refusal to leave the European Union. It is difficult to say whether this is good news, but it is definitely a shift from the "dead" place where the country was led by the prime minister. Thus, tomorrow during the day we will be able to find out what the British Parliament wants, which rejected the options of "tough" Brexit and Brexit according to the "Checkers" plan. Theresa May's reaction to this event has not yet happened, but for some reason, it seems that her political career will result in the failure to accept the Brexit agreement and the subsequent resignation by agreement. Tomorrow's trading can be distinguished by high volatility and tool jerks from side to side.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues the upward correction. In the coming days, the pair may again "storm", so with the opening of any position, it is recommended to be careful. News from the UK can have a strong impact on the currency pair.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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GBP/USD analysis for March 26, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3225 but we expect the further upward movement and potential test of 1.3377.

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Gold price remains in a bullish short-term trend. The supply trendline has been broken and price remains above 1.3220. The last couple of sessions price mainly moves sideways between 1.3157 and 1.3260. This consolidation might be followed by a new bullish momentum towards 1.3377. There is also a confirmed inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is another sign of the potential strength. As long as the support at the price of 1.3155 we remain bullish.

Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 1.3225 and with target at 1.3377. Protective stop is placed at 1.3140.

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EUR/USD. March 26. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Euro is ready for a new fall on the basis of "technology"

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -80.7398

On Tuesday, March 26, the EUR/USD currency pair corrected almost to the moving average line and resume the downward movement. At least this is what the trading system shows. The second closed bar of the blue color indicator Heikin Ashi will signal a downward reversal. Important macroeconomic reports today from Europe are not expected. Information on the housing price index, the number of building permits received and the level of consumer confidence will come from America. However, these reports are far from the most important, so the reaction of traders to them can be very restrained or absent altogether. Thus, the foreground will remain the technical factors that so far predict the Euro currency another fall. Although, as we said earlier, from a fundamental point of view, the confrontation between the dollar and the euro has leveled off due to the Fed's refusal from the course of systematic monetary tightening. The advantage still remains with the US currency, but it is not as clear as it was before. Therefore, taking into account the fact that over the past few months, the pair has not been able to build an uptrend or overcome 1.1200, there are more chances now to form an uptrend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1261

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1322

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair may resume a downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider sell orders with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1261. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal the opening of the short positions.

Buy positions can be considered no earlier than fixing the pair back above the moving average line with targets at 1.1353 and 1.1383 since the trend, in this case, will change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Increasing the slope of the yield curve of treasuries could stir up the currency markets

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Last Friday, for the first time since 2007, the US government bond yield curve took the form of inversion, which is considered to be an indicator of the approaching recession in the US economy.

Meanwhile, according to ex-Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, the market hints more at a reduction in interest rates in the United States, rather than foreshadowing a recession. At least, this is indicated by futures on the federal funds rate.

At the same time, it is possible that Federal Reserve is currently refraining from tightening monetary policy so that later it does not have to drastically reduce the rate and pull the country's economy out of recession. In particular, in 2016, a similar pause was enough to bring the United States back onto the path of growth and even demonstrate impressive acceleration. The same opinion is shared by the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the National Bank of China. It is possible that they are now trying to repeat the same trick that worked three years ago.

Experts at Morgan Stanley believe that the yield curve of American treasuries in the area from 3 months to 10 years should remain inverted at least until the June Fed meeting before the regulator begins to feel "discomfort".

"If the inversion persists longer, the Central Bank will probably begin to consider the steps necessary to support the economy," representatives of the financial institute noted.

Nomura believes that the market will be laid on a more aggressive reduction in the interest rates of the Fed only if there are real signs of a slowdown in the US economy.

"When large rates on recession appear, then there will be no flattening and inversion of the yield curve, but a sharp increase in its angle of a tilt against the background of a decrease in the Central Bank rate. Under these conditions, currency fluctuations will increase," experts said.

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Analysis of the EUR / USD divergence on March 26. The end of the pair = new fall?

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair returned to the retracement level of 38.2% (1.1328) and rebounded from it with a reversal in favor of the US dollar. Thus, on March 26, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 23.6% (1.1269). On the current chart, emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator. Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 38.2% will work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 50.0% (1.1374).

The Fibo grid is based on extremes of January 10, 2019, and March 7, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the quotes of the pair fell to the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). Rebounding the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553). Fixing the pair quotations below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941).

The Fibo grid is based on extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1374 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1374. The stop loss order should be placed under the retracement level of 38.2%.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be carried out now with the target at 1.1269, as the pair completed the rebound from the retracement level of 1.1328. The stop loss order should be placed above the Fibo level of 38.2%.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD divergence for March 26. Consolidation of the pair near the level of 1.3200

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair completed the passage of the last bearish divergence peak. Thus, the growth of quotations can be continued today in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.3300). Rebounding the course of the pair from this level will again allow us expecting a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 127.2% (1.3534).

The Fibo grid is built on the ground of extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair rebounded several times from the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3171), then rebound from the retracement level of 38.2% (1.3220) and a decrease back to the level of 50.0%. The new release of quotes on March 26 from the Fibo level of 50.0% will again work in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2%. Fixing the rate below the Fibo level of 50.0% will make it possible to expect a continuation of a fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121).

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of the extremums from March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.3220 and 1.3281 and a stop loss order under the level of 50.0% if the pair completes another hang-up from the level of 1.3171 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3121 and a stop loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the retracement level of 1.317 1 (hourly chart).

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GBP / USD plan for the US session on March 26. The pound enjoys the support after the emergence of alternatives on Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers are gradually returning to the market after news that tomorrow there will be a vote in Parliament for alternative Brexit scenarios. Given this situation, trading will be above the support of 1.3215 as demand for the pound will continue, which leaves a chance for a resumption of the upward correction to the highs of 1.3266 and 1.3316, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a repeated decline of the pound below the level of 1.3215 amid the news on Brexit, it is best to consider long positions on a rebound from the lows of 1.3166 and 1.3126.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears have missed the resistance level of 1.3215 and the main task in the afternoon will be to return to this range. In this scenario, trading will continue in a wider side channel with an upper border of 1.3240 and a lower border of 1.3166. In case of further growth in GBP/USD, it is best to consider short positions on a false breakdown from the resistance of 1.3266 or a rebound from the high of 1.3316. Important fundamental data on the UK economy is not expected today, hence, the whole emphasis will be on the news about Brexit.

More in the video forecast for March 26

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market. Maintaining the given scenario is important in order to update new local maximums.

Bollinger bands

The downward correction for the pound is limited by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3166.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 26. The lack of important data does not allow the euro to continue to grow

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The euro strengthened its position against the US dollar in the first half of the day. However, with the absence of important fundamental statistics in the background, the upward trend could not continue. At the moment, buyers need to break through the resistance level of 1.1324 and a test of which observed in the first half of the day will lead to a further upward correction to the area of 1.1358 and 1.1388 maximum, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of returning to the low of the day at the support level of 1.1294, it is best to consider long positions in EUR/USD on the area of 1.1269 or on the rebound from the support of 1.1247.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers coped with the task in the morning and did not allow the pair to rise above resistance 1.1324. While the trade is conducted below this range, the pressure on the euro will remain. Yet, the main goal will be to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1294, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave and update weekly lows in areas of 1.1269 and 1.1247, where I recommend taking profits. In case that it grew higher than 1.1324 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions in EUR/USD on a rebound from the resistance levels of 1.1358 and 1.1388.

More in the video forecast for March 26

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with the advantage of sellers.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 26, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705. The pair is still moving around the daily pivot point of 0.6882. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 0.6882 and further to 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 26, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is trading around the daily pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. This week, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while the first daily support is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So, it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target at 1.1335. The downtrend is also expected to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we anticipate the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend remains bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place, and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.

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Fed decision will support gold, experts say

According to experts of the investment bank Standard Chartered, the refusal to raise interest rates by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States is able to support prices for the yellow metal. Experts believe that the Fed may not raise rates this year.

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Many analysts expected a similar decision from the American regulator. However, it contrasts very strongly with the statement made in December last year. Recall that there were about two possible rate increases in 2019. The abrupt change in the rhetoric of the Fed has forced investors to turn to the gold market once again. They considered the yellow metal to be the safest asset.

Note that in 2018 a huge amount of precious metal was removed from the United States. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), exports of the yellow metal increased by 23% compared with 2017. The USGS stated that America exported 473.6 tons of gold last year and imported 212.8 tons. At the end of 2018, net exports of precious metals amounted to 260.8 tons, which exceeds the data in 2016 by five times.

Standard Chartered believes that the macroeconomic background will support the gold market. Moreover, experts believe that the US currency rate will decline in the current situation.

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The dollar is rising against the yen, along with optimism about the global economy

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The dollar begins to compensate for recent losses against the yen after the yield of Treasury bonds rose from 15-month lows and it became clear that investors overestimated the likelihood of a sharp decline in the global economy. The pound is stuck in a narrow range in anticipation of the outcome of a vote of British lawmakers. In general, world markets rolled back after the inversion of the yield curve of US Treasury bonds, which in the past signaled a recession. This supported the dollar, as it shows that the economic outlook remains quite good. The American began to move away from a six-week low of 109.70 yen.

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Now, we should wait for data on consumer confidence and the housing sector in the United States, these reports will be important signals for the foreign exchange market. The dollar should receive further support if today's economic indicators are sustainable, because strong data may be the only factor preventing further decline in Treasury bond yields.

The euro remained under pressure amid growing concerns about a slowdown in the eurozone economy but managed to achieve modest growth after a stronger than predicted indicator of business confidence in Germany. The Australian dollar, sensitive to changes in sentiment regarding risks, increased by 0.15 percent to 0.7123 dollars.

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GBP/USD: a fateful week for Brexit and pound sterling

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The British Parliament took control of the Brexit process.

The House of Commons spoke in favor of holding this week a series of votes on various options for action related to Brexit.

Thus, the deputies are trying to find a way out of this situation. The amendment submitted by conservative Oliver Letwin was supported by 329 parliamentarians, 302 were against.

It does not specify exactly what alternatives will be offered to deputies.

According to the British media, among the options may be a repeated referendum, withdrawal from the EU without an agreement, and maintaining the country's membership in the EU Customs Union and the single European market, and even the abolition of Brexit.

"It's obvious that Theresa May's plan failed. It means that trying to put the squeeze on the parliamentarians by forcing them to vote for the third time for the draft agreement, which they have twice rejected, is not the way to solve the problem. Resigning in exchange for supporting the plan is also not an option. To give talks about the conditions for the country's withdrawal from the EU into the hands of ardent supporters of Brexit is not in the interests of British society. The crisis must be resolved by the lawmakers themselves, who are obliged to forget about interparty feuds and unite for the sake of the common cause. If it is not possible to reach a consensus this time, then it will be necessary at least to request a long-term deferment of Brexit from Brussels. The main thing now for Britain is not to overstep the brink, beyond which the state is awaited by chaos and uncertainty," reported by the Financial Times.

As for the British currency, it reacted with restraint to the latest news on Brexit. The GBP/USD pair is still in a narrow trading range, awaiting "indicative" voting in the House of Commons for the divorce process. It is assumed that on Wednesday the legislators will vote on a number of alternative strategies for Brexit. It will be an important day for the pound sterling, which will clarify the chances of the United Kingdom to reach a deal with the European Union.

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Brexit: Get ready for alternative scenarios. The decision of the British Parliament to deprive Prime Minister Theresa May

Perhaps the key event on Monday was the decision of the British Parliament to deprive the Prime Minister Teresa May of control over the exit process from the EU. This decision was made with a ratio of 392-302 votes, which opens up the possibility for voting on alternative Brexit plans.

The parliamentarians made this decision after three more ministers from Theresa May's cabinet voted to give parliament control over the exit from the EU and resigned. This is due to the growing discontent with the British Prime Minister and her actions regarding Brexit.

Most likely, the vote on alternative scenarios Brexit will take place tomorrow, and we can only guess what it can lead to. There are a lot of scenarios, but one of them, concerning the uncontrolled withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU, can be definitely excluded since parliamentarians have repeatedly stated that such a Brexit scenario is unacceptable.

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British Prime Minister May said yesterday that for the third vote on the agreement on withdrawal from the EU is not enough to support. This suggests that today's vote on Brexit will not take place. The British Prime Minister also noted that she still expects to hold a third vote in the coming days, since the government is not bound by the conclusions of parliament on the voting process.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, such decisions will most likely support the pound, since it is precisely possible to exclude the most "catastrophic" scenario. A break above the resistance range of 1.3215 may lead to an increase in demand for the pound, which will open new weekly highs for the bulls near 1.3270 and 1.3315. In the event of a decrease in the pound, good areas will be supported by the 1.3085 and 1.3005.

USA

The data released yesterday on the American economy did not greatly affect the EURUSD pair since they did not represent much interest.

According to the report, the index of national activity of the Fed-Chicago fell in February 2019. This happened due to the slow growth of employment indicators. Thus, the index fell to -0.29 points in February against -0.25 points in January.

But production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas grew in March. According to the report, the Fed-Dallas manufacturing index in March 2019 rose to 11.5 points against 10.1 points in February. The index of total business activity fell to 8.3 points from 13.1 points.

Yesterday's speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, did not impress the market, as in general, he repeated the words of his colleagues who spoke before him.

Rosengren believes that the continuing reduction in the assets balance of the US Federal Reserve System was not the cause of volatility in the financial market, which would allow the regulator to take a wait-and-see attitude towards interest rates.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The trading instrument keeps the intermediate level of 1.1295 from further falling, a breakthrough of which will increase the pressure on risky assets and will lead to the updating of last week's lows in the areas of 1.1270 and 1.1225. With an upward correction, the growth of the euro was already limited by the level of 1.1330, however, its repeated test may lead to a larger upward movement in the area of resistance 1.1355.

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Trading plan for 03/26/2019

The market stopped waiting for the end of the story with Brexit, which is about to come. Although no macroeconomic statistics came out and the events of yesterday were almost epochal. As a matter of fact, the House of Commons removed Theresa May from solving the issue with Brexit, and her ministers flee from her like rats from a ship. Thus, the Minister for the Affairs of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as deputy ministers for business and industry, as well as health, resigned. They publicly advocated giving the House of Commons the right to independently decide which options for the Brexit situation would be considered on Wednesday. At the same time, the European Union officially announced that it had begun preparations for a "tough" divorce, that is, without an agreement and a transitional period. In fact, Brussels proposes to London either to accept a "divorce" agreement and then the exit will take place on May 22, followed by a transitional period. If the House of Commons rejects the agreement for the third time, then the exit will take place on April 12, and without "preliminary caresses" in the form of a transition period. This is the "hard" option. So on Wednesday, the House of Commons will decide what to do next. There are no many options. You can accept the enslaving agreement and hope that the European Union in the future will appreciate complementing its economic component. You can demonstrate your pride and inflexibility and get a threat of economic disaster. Although in general, these two options from the point of view of the economy are not much different. You can refuse from Brexit at all or hold a second referendum. But the trouble is that the last two options just do not like the great mass of subjects of Her Majesty. Basically, those who belong to supporters of Brexit. So for parliamentarians, these two options are guaranteed to become political suicide.

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But all this awaits us only on Wednesday. And the result is almost impossible to predict. We do not even know which of the options and in what order will be considered. Parliamentarians will decide tomorrow. Another thing is that someone from British politicians can say something, and the market will immediately start to panic. If the parliamentarians are smart enough to keep their mouths shut, market participants will still sit like knives, and no macroeconomic statistics will be able to bring them to life. But today there are data on construction in the United States. And although the data is not so important, nevertheless it is expected that the number of new construction projects will be reduced by as much as 28.3%. It turns out that the number of new construction projects has decreased by more than a quarter. This will impress anyone. And yes, the number of building permits issued may be reduced by 0.6%, which no one will notice. But the intrigue around tomorrow's meeting of the House of Commons clearly holds the minds and hearts of market participants.

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The euro/dollar currency pair, forming a slight pullback, concentrated within the level of 1.1300, resulting in amplitude of 1.1290 / 1.1330. It is likely to assume the preservation of the current oscillation, where traders monitor the boundaries for a breakdown when placing trading orders.

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The currency pair pound/dollar, forming a correctional movement, reached the previously passed cluster of 1.3220, where it formed a narrow range of 1.3170 / 1.3220. It is likely to assume that the current amplitude fluctuation is preserved, where the current cluster already makes it clear to traders that they are waiting for positions on the market that are likely to lead to impulse candles. Now, traders monitor existing boundaries for breakdown and clear fixation before placing trading orders.

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Forecast for Gold on March 26, 2019

Gold (Gold)

The price made a deep correction of 61.8% in the period of decline from February 20 to March 7, where it met with the MACD daily scale line. The Marlin oscillator signal line bent down a bit.

On the four-hour chart, we see a double-formed divergence with the Marlin oscillator. The transition of the signal line of the oscillator to the negative zone will be the first working signal to lower the price of gold. This transition can take place when the price reaches the level of 50.0% Fibonacci at 1313.30. The target of the mid-term decline at 1276.30 is the support formed by a three-time test in January, which we see on the daily chart.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 26. Suspended state by Brexit

analytics5c99d5640b507.png

Wave counting analysis:

On March 25, the GBP / USD pair fell by 15 bps. Based on the current version of the wave marking, it is supposed to build a downward wave 3 in the composition of the downward trend section with targets located below the 29th figure. However, the news background remains the factor that is able to turn upside down in any trends of the market and the wave pattern. Yesterday, it became known that on March 27, the British Parliament will hold a series of votes on all possible scenarios of Brexit at once, hoping that one of them will be adopted. Such a decision was taken by the parliament, despite the opinion of Prime Minister Theresa May, to which there is less and less trust in the country. Thus, tomorrow we can witness new "high-profile" events that will undoubtedly cause active trading on the market.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern allows for the construction of an upward wave with targets located near the estimated level of 1.3454, however, I recommend returning to this option only in case of a successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0%. A more likely development of events is now the construction of a downward wave with targets below 29 figures, thus, I recommend sales in small volumes. I also recommend not to lose sight of what is happening in the UK, especially the vote tomorrow.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 26. The pair shows all signs of readiness to build an upward wave with

analytics5c99d52be184a.png

Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, March 25, trading ended on EUR / USD by 20 bp increase for the pair EUR / USD. Thus, there are more reasons to assume that the construction of wave b is completed as part of the new upward trend section after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci 61.8% level. If this is true, then the quotation increase will continue with a minimum target located around 1.1450. The news background, interesting for the instrument, was absent yesterday. And most likely for today as well, it will not affect the course of trading in any way. Therefore, the tool will have good chances for continued moderate growth.

Sales targets:

1.1280 - 61.8% Fibonacci (small grid)

1.1240 - 76.4% Fibonacci (small grid)

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of wave b. Now I recommend re-buying the pair in small volumes, and as confidence increases in the transition of the instrument to the construction of an upward wave, increase volumes with targets located near the estimated 1.1448 mark, which equals to 0.0% Fibonacci.

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GBP / USD: Drop in treasury yields and the expectation of demonstrative votes in the British Parliament

The GBP/USD pair continues to track the vicissitudes of the "divorce process" between London and Brussels. The plot of the prolonged drama continues to spin: the British never ceases to amaze with a variety of legislative maneuvers.

Hence, the Speaker of the House of Commons did not have time to get the 400-year-old convention out of the sleeve, thereby blocking the third vote on the deal as parliamentarians decided to hold a so-called "demonstrative vote". The results of which are not binding for the government. Meanwhile, Theresa May acknowledged that there are clearly not enough votes in parliament to support the deal, therefore, in any case, it is inappropriate to submit the draft agreement to the parliament at this time. The situation has again come to a standstill, whereas the period allotted by Brussels is gradually expiring and the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit is growing again despite the formal disagreement of the British deputies with this scenario.

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However, the results for today can bring some clarity at least in part of what the British Parliament wants. Many criticize the British parliamentarians for simply rejecting the options offered to them, while they do not offer any clear structured alternatives. Today, members of the House of Commons must take the initiative in this regard and show which scenario is acceptable for them.

First of all, let's understand the definition of "exemplary voting" since in the post-Soviet space this procedure is not actually practiced. Although in some CIS parliaments there is a so-called "signaling vote". During this type of voting, deputies demonstrate their attitude towards a number of legislative initiatives so that members of the government have an idea of which draft of the law is viable and which a priori will not be approved. In the context of Brexit, the essence of an exemplary vote boils down to different interpretations of the deal between London and Brussels. Here, it is necessary to immediately make a reservation that the European Union accepts only one option of the transaction, which was approved at the EU summit at the end of last year. However, the British deputies are not embarrassed by this nuance as they continue to insist on changing the agreement.

At the moment, it is not known what particular alternative projects of the transaction are discussed and the essence of the key changes. Obviously, the question of Brexit will be touched upon one way or another since the fate of the Irish border is the cornerstone of the existing problem. In addition, the House of Commons may consider today other options for the development of events, according to the British press. Thus, the deputies will "probe the ground" regarding the country's withdrawal from the EU without a deal, regarding a repeated referendum and the Brexit combined option pertaining to the withdrawal from the Alliance while maintaining British membership in the EU customs union.

I repeat that all the initiatives that have been voted today (whether they are for or against) will not be binding for the government. It is rather a form of pressure from deputies to the prime minister and members of her team. By the way, the May team suffered losses again after expressing their disagreement with the cabinet policy regarding the prospects for Brexit. The deputy foreign minister and the minister for business and industry of the country announced their resignation yesterday. Let me remind you that on the weekend there were rumors that 11 ministers would threaten their resignation at once, forcing May to voluntarily leave his post and even if these rumors were officially denied, the resignation did occur but not in droves though.

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During her speech yesterday, Theresa May opposed the holding of a "demonstrative vote," while calling for support for her draft deal. At the same time, the prime minister acknowledged that an alternative decision of the parliament could be "either another form of Brexit or a second referendum.", whereas she categorically rejected the options of "hard Brexit" or "combined version". In other words, today's activity can be a guide for the GBP/USD traders in the context of understanding future prospects, at least in a hypothetical way.

If we talk about the quoted currency, the US dollar of the situation here has not changed much. The results of the March Fed meeting and the nomination of Stephen Moore's "dovish" to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve continue to put pressure on the greenback and this pressure has intensified against the background of falling yields on 10-year US government bonds. Yesterday, this figure fell from 2.379% mark, which was the lowest value since December 2017. At the moment, the indicator has suspended its decline and recovered slightly to 2.430% but the overall fundamental background remains depressed.

However, the weakening of the dollar in the context of the GBP/USD pair is secondary. Brexit is still in the spotlight as the results of today's voting may cause strong volatility in the pair, especially if the parliament expresses its readiness to support the "hard" Brexit option or foster the idea of a repeated referendum on the contrary.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 26)

The Euro / Dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed a low volatility of 42 points, as a result, it hovered near the level of 1.1300. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a pullback with price fixing higher than the level of 1.1300. However, after that, the process of deceleration started, forming a cluster near the level of 1.1300. Information and news background continues to focus on the "divorce" process. This time we saw a number of rather interesting actions. The British Parliament fully removed Prime Minister Theresa May from any action and sat down to control the process, where the House of Commons spoke in favor of holding a series of ballots on various alternatives to the draft agreement on Brexit conditions. The amendment does not specify exactly which alternatives will be offered to deputies, who should be entitled this Wednesday to independently determine the agenda of the parliament in order to consider various proposals concerning the situation around Brexit. We are left with wondering about what kind of voting options are waiting for us. So this is the way out without a deal, the second referendum, the cancellation of Brexit. At the same time, the European Union, represented by the European Commission, was seriously preparing for a hard exit: "If the Agreement on withdrawal is not ratified by Friday, March 29, the" no deal "scenario will occur on April 12. The EU has prepared for this scenario. Now it is important that everyone is ready and aware of the practical consequences of the "no transaction" scenario, the EC said. Speculators, in turn, are preparing for the upcoming rally.

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In terms of the economic calendar, we only have statistics at the start of new construction in the United States, where there is a strong decline from 18.6% to -28.3% (February).

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see a slowdown in the framework of 1.1300 / 1.1330. It is likely to preserve uncertainty regarding the information background, where traders occupy a waiting position, but at the same time monitor clear price fixing beyond the estimated cluster.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1330.

- We consider selling positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1280.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term there is an upward interest. It should be understood that in the informational background, a cluster of indicators on smaller TFs can vary arbitrarily.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 26, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 17 points. It is likely to assume that in the case of any statements from the information background, the volatility may increase.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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BITCOIN Analysis for March 26, 2019

Bitcoin sank below the Triangle pattern in the support area with a daily close recently which pushed the price down to the edge of $3,880 support area. Despite the formation of the descending Triangle pattern, a sudden breakout below support was a surprise for the bulls. Meanwhile, the price is currently being propelled higher away from the strong support area of $3,800-80.

The price managed to reject off the support area quite well but could not establish impulsive counter-momentum to break above the dynamic level of 20 EMA. Moreover, MACD is showing a bullish crossover currently that indicates vaguely further bullish momentum in the coming days. As the price remains below $3,950-$4,000, the bearish pressure is expected to push the price lower with a target towards $3,500-600 support area in the coming days. On the contrary, a break above $4,000 with a daily close will encourage further bullish pressure with an upward target towards $4,500.

SUPPORT: 3,500-600, 3,800-80

RESISTANCE: 3,950, 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c99e48430568.png

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 26)

For the last trading day, the Pound / Dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 86 points, resulting in stagnation in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation reached the previously passed cluster of 1.3220 after the corrective movement, where it slowed down and formed a stagnation of 1.3170 / 1.3220. Meanwhile, the information and news background does not let go of the prolonged Brexit. This time, the House of Commons of the British Parliament spoke in favor of holding a series of votes on various alternatives to the draft agreement on Brexit terms. The amendment does not specify exactly which alternatives will be offered to deputies, who should have received the right to independently determine the agenda of the parliament in order to consider various proposals concerning the situation around Brexit this Wednesday. What exactly voting options are waiting for us, so this is a way out without a deal, a second referendum, and cancellation of Brexit. At the same time, three high-ranking officials resigned yesterday: Deputy Minister for Business and Industry Richard Harrington, Minister for the Affairs of the Middle East and North Africa Alistair Bert, and Deputy Minister of Health Steve Brine. To put it bluntly, the Parliament of Britain removes Theresa May from actions and plans to take steps herself.

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In terms of the economic calendar, we see only statistics on the start of new construction in the United States, where there is a staggering decline from 18.6% to -28.3% (February). In any case, traders need to understand that tomorrow is a meeting in the British Parliament, and many are waiting for various names and bursts of information.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a compression of 1.3170 / 1.3220, where traders tritely wait for further information regarding Brexit. Thus, we are waiting for impulse moves - the probability is very high, but there will be a meeting in parliament tomorrow. Today, there can only be rumors and certain statements. Thus, I do not exclude the further formation of a congestion, where traders will monitor the existing boundaries for breakdown before laying trading orders.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for purchase of traders are considered after fixing the price higher than 1.3250.

- Positions for sale of traders are considered after fixing the price lower than 1.3170.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is an upward interest in the short, intraday and medium term. It should be understood that the price is within the cluster, and indicators on smaller TFs can vary arbitrarily.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 26 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 45 points. The volatility of the day will depend on bursts of information background, because otherwise, we will see a standing quote in the cluster.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Indicator analysis. Daily review March 26, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, there is a high probability of continuing the upward movement. The first upper target 1.3031 is the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.3292 (yellow thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, there is a high probability of continuing the upward movement. The first upper target 1.3031 is the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.3292 (yellow thin line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review March 26, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1281 is the pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). In case of a breakdown of this level, there will be further movement downwards with testing of the support line (blue bold line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1281 is the pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). In case of a breakdown of this level, there will be further movement downwards with testing of the support line (blue bold line).

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Difficult to grow for euro in the current situation

After Friday, market participants finally realized that Europe was falling into recession, as supported by important economic data. Activity on the markets dropped noticeably on Monday, which can be explained by investors 'desire to observe the economic statistics.

The German IFO business climate index published on Monday has somewhat reassured market players as they showed an increase to 99.6 points against a revised upward previous value of 98.7 points and a forecast growth of 98.7 points. Moreover, it exceeds the data index of business expectations and assessment of the current situation in the country but they could not rule out the heavy precipitate that remained after Friday's extremely weak data from the business activity index in the manufacturing sector. We recall that it showed not just a decrease in growth but a negative trend, as they turned out to be below the Rubicon level of 50 points.

In our opinion, all the attention of investors will be drawn to emerging data from Germany in particular and the eurozone as a whole. So far, it seems that there is still hope in the market that this is a local negative caused by several reasons. On the one hand, the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy and on the other, the trade war between Washington and Beijing. However, as previously indicated, it seems to us that the main reason is the accumulated problems after the severe crisis of 2008-09, which were not corrected but simply, as they say, flooded with cheap liquidity from the ECB as part of incentive programs.

In contrast to the FedThe ECB, they did not manage to reach the threshold of a new global crisis with at least the degree of normalization of monetary policy, as was done by the Fed. And now, the ECB simply does not have monetary tools to deal with this process given the high risk of the European economy slipping into a new recession.

Assessing such prospects, we believe that the single currency will continue to remain under pressure against all major currencies. In addition, the situation around Brexit can strike the European economy despite Brussels's assurances of preparation for it and at the same time, it will also have a negative impact on its course.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is still consolidating above the level of 1.1285 while waiting for the publication of new data on the German and European economy, as well as, the situation around Brexit. We still believe that it has the potential to fall to 1.1215 after a decline below 1.1285.

The GBP/USD pair remains in the 1.3060-1.3320 range on a wave of complex history around Brexit. If the parliament does not approve of T. May's plan, the pair may fall to 1.3060 after crossing the level of 1.3160.

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for March 26, 2019

EURUSD has made a small bounce yesterday from 1.1285 to 1.1331. Price is consolidating above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level. Short-term trend remains bearish after the reversal from 1.14.

analytics5c99d14e4b344.png

Red line - major resistance trend line

Green line - support trend line

Blue rectangle - horizontal resistance area

EURUSD is so far respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This area is important support and a strong bounce from this area is very possible.EURUSD has short-term resistance at 1.1370 and next at 1.14. Breaking above this area will open the way for a move towards 1.15-1.16. Bulls need to hold this support area and start pushing higher to recapture 1.14. On the other hand, bears want to see price bounce and get rejected at 1.1370-1.14. The most probable scenario for me is to see price recapture 1.14 and move towards 1.15-1.16.

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 26/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has violated the technical support at the level of 130.94 and made a new low at the level of 139.10, so the market is moving as anticipated: the wave (c) of the wave X of the higher degree is still unfolding. The nearest target now is seen at the level of 127.85 and that might be the end of the wave (c) of wave X. Please notice the Doji candlestick pattern with a top at the level of 132.45 that supports the bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 140.08

WR2 - 144.31

WR1 - 138.13

Weekly Pivot - 134.32

WS1 - 128.34

WS2 - 124.63

WS3 - 118.55

Trading recommendations:

The market is still unfolding the wave (c) to the downside, so according to this bias, the sell orders should be kept open. The targets ( take profit levels) are seen at the levels of 130.94 (already hit) and 127.85.

analytics5c99d0781c48f.jpg

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Technical analysis for Gold for March 26, 2019

Gold price made a marginal new higher high and reached $1,324.50 but is now pulling back lower again in early Tuesday trading. Gold price is challenging important Fibonacci resistance area and the RSI has given a new higher high relative to the last high. This implies increased chances of more upside for Gold.

analytics5c99d0401ea67.png

Blue line - important short-term support trend line

Gold price continues to trade in a bullish trend making higher highs and higher lows. Gold approached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement providing a bearish divergence but with yesterday's new higher high the RSI made a new high. This strengthens the bullish scenario for a move towards $1,350-60. Gold price has support at $1,310-$1,300 and as long as price is above the blue trend line support I expect Gold to continue its move higher towards $1,350-60. Next resistance is at $1,333. Breaking above it will strengthen the bullish scenario.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 26/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The BTC/USD pair has moved lower as anticipated and the local low was made at the level of $3,909. The momentum remains weak and negative with clearly supports the current wave scenario of this pair, in which there is a missing sub-wave (c) in the wave 2 of a higher degree. The target level for wave 2 is way below the current price, at $3,813 and any violation of the level of $3,967 will be a first sigh that the sub-wave (c) continues to unfold.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,204

WR2 - $4,154

WR1 - $4,072Weekly Pivot - $4,017

WS1 - $3,925

WS2 - $3,867

WS3 - $3,781

Trading recommendations:

The market is still unfolding the wave (c) to the downside, so according to this bias only sell orders should be kept open. The targets ( take profit levels) are seen at the levels of $3,967 and way lower at $3,813.

analytics5c99ce6213d5c.jpg

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 26. Theresa May lost control of the Brexit process

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the British Parliament deprived Prime Minister Theresa May of control over the Brexit process, explaining that she could not cope with the task that she was entrusted with However, the GBP/USD pair reacted quite restrained. At the moment, bulls need to stay above 1.3166, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a signal to buy. If the downward movement of the pound resumes, it is best to return to long positions after updating the low around 1.3126 or to rebound from the support of 1.3083. A breakthrough and consolidation above 1.3215 will be another signal to the increase of long positions based on the test of highs 1.3266 and 1.3316, where I recommend to lock in profits amid the Brexit process.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Alternatives for Brexit, the vote on which will take place tomorrow, keep the pound from falling. Today, sellers will try to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.3215, but the main goal will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.3166, which will lead to selling GBP/USD to the area of lows of 1.3126 and 1.3083, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.3215 in the first half of the day, good resistance levels for sales will be seen in areas 1.3266 and 1.3316, from where you can open short positions immediately to rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3218 will be a signal to buy the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 26. The pressure on the euro could return

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Good data from the IFO Institute of Germany provided only temporary support for the euro and did not allow bulls to continue the upward correction. At the moment, buyers need to stay above the support at 1.1294, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions in order to increase towards the area of 1.1324. A breakthrough of this level will lead to a test of a high of 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD further declines, for example, after weak data on the French economy, it is best to return to long positions after updating last week's low to 1.1269 or to rebound from the support of 11247.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Like yesterday, sellers of the European currency will try to prevent growth above the resistance of 1.1324, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to sell the euro with a trend, in order to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1294. Such a scenario will lead to the formation of a new downward wave and the renewal of lows for the week in the area of 1.1269 and 1.1247, where I recommend to lock in the profit. If data for France turns out to be better than expected, short positions in EUR/USD can only be considered for a rebound from resistances of 1.1258 and 1.1388.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator has significantly decreased, which does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 25, 2019

analytics5c99079c0788f.png

We continue to expect the channel support-line near 144.14 will continue to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 145.88 that will indicate renewed upside pressure towards 148.50 on the way towards 151.50.

Only an unexpected break below the support-line and more importantly a break below 143.75 will shift the short-term bias to the downside for a decline towards 141.08.

R3: 147.31

R2: 146.46

R1: 145.88

Pivot: 145.30

S1: 144.80

S2: 144.60

S3: 144.14

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 144.60 and we have placed our stop+revers at 143.60.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 26/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The bounce from the 61% Fibonacci retracement on the EUR/USD pair was very shallow, about 20 pips so far, the momentum remains weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions, so another move down is still on the table because there is no sight of correction continuation. Any violation of the level of 1.1275 will only accelerate the bearish pressure.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.1551

WR2 - 1.1500

WR1 - 1.1377

Weekly Pivot - 1.1325

WS1 - 1.1198

WS2 - 1.1148

WS3 - 1.1029

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders should be placed from the level of 1.1335 in a case of any pull-back upwards and the sell stop orders should be opened below the level of 1.1272, where the local low is. The targets are seen at the levels of 1.1249 and 1.1220.

analytics5c99c9a3e2490.jpg

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