EUR/AUD breaking out of major ascending trend line support, prepare to sell!

EUR/AUD has broken the major trend line support and we look to sell at 1.6065 (horizontal overlap resistance) for a reversal to at least 1.5875 profit target (horizontal pullback support).

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CAD/JPY is approaching our major ascending trend line support, prepare to buy!

CAD/JPY is approaching our major trend line support and we look to buy at 82.05 (horizontal pullback support) for a bounce to at least 83.33 profit target (horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement).

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NZD/USD on major descending trend line resistance, prepare to sell!

NZD/USD is testing major trend line resistance and we look to sell at 0.67580 (descending trend line support) for a drop to at least 0.66707 profit target (horizontal swing low support).

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EUR/USD on major ascending trend line support, prepare to buy!

EUR/USD is testing major trend line support and we look to buy at 1.14454 (ascending trend line support) for a bounce to at least 1.14694 profit target (horizontal swing high resistance).

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EUR: Another weak data for Germany continues to alarm

The data released in the first half of the day in Germany provided only temporary support for the European currency, after which the EUR / USD pair trading returned to the side channel.

An unsuccessful update of yesterday's high may indicate completion after the New Year upward correction in the euro. Today's publication of the Federal Reserve System today may lead to the strengthening of the American dollar in the afternoon but it will be possible to speak of more serious growth prospects only after clarity in the dialogue between the US and China. Obviously, nothing new will be said in the minutes but their publication may be the reason for closing a number of long positions in the euro.

The next weak data on Germany continues to alarming. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, exports from Germany declined in November 2018, despite the higher surplus than forecasted by experts. Given the tensions in world trade, a reduction in exports may create additional problems for economic growth in the future.

According to the data, the trade surplus of Germany amounted to 19.0 billion euros in November while economists had expected it to be at the level of 18.0 billion euros. Exports in November fell by 0.4% compared to 110.6 billion euros in October, while imports fell by 1.6%.

The data on reducing unemployment in the eurozone did not largely help euro buyers in the first half of the day, even though they were much better than economists' forecasts.

According to the data, the unemployment rate in the eurozone for the month of November fell to a minimum in the last 10 years. As indicated in the report of the European Bureau of Statistics, the total number of unemployed in October 2018 decreased by 90,000 people, and the unemployment rate itself fell to 7.9% from 8.0%. By contrast, economists expected unemployment to rise to 8.1%.

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In an interview today, Fed spokesman James Bullard once again confirmed the fears of many traders that are associated with a slowdown in the rate of borrowing costs in the United States this year. Bullard said that at present the rates are at the right level and there is no need to raise them further. However, if the Fed goes too far, it could push the economy into recession.

Bullard also noted that the Fed has enough tools and if the economy weakens unexpectedly, it will be possible to lower rates. Yet, despite this, a stable monetary policy will ensure inflation in the area of the target level. According to his forecast, the US GDP growth in 2019 will be at the level of 2.25% - 2.5%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged and after an unsuccessful breakthrough above the resistance around 1.1470, it is possible to begin the development in a bearish direction. A further downward correction will be constrained by large support levels of 1.1400 and 1.1350.

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Experts expect to strengthen the position of the main competitors of the dollar

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Deutsche Bank experts believe that the euro, the yen, the Australian dollar, and the Swiss franc in 2019 should strengthen against the US currency.

They recommend buying the euro against the dollar, predicting the inversion of the yield curve of US government bonds, which will serve as a negative factor for the greenback.

"Thanks to the policy pursued by the ECB, as well as against the background of the surplus of the current account of the eurozone, the single European currency looks quite stable," representatives of the financial institute said.

"We recommend taking a short position in the USD / JPY pair, which can test the level of 100 by the end of the year. It is assumed that the Japanese Central Bank will not impede the growth of the yen. We also recommend buying the Australian dollar against a US competitor or considering buying an AUD against a basket of currencies of developing countries as an alternative," they added.

A similar point of view is held by currency strategists Morgan Stanley.

"Mitigation of the Fed's rhetoric and the possible achievement of progress in the US and Celestial trade negotiations contribute to the growth of optimism in the market. We advise you to take advantage of this and buy the Australian dollar. In addition, the restoration of risk appetite in combination with the increase in oil prices should ensure the development of the impulse that has begun at the beginning of the year to reduce the pair USD / CAD. Therefore, we recommend not linger with its sale," they noted.

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Gold is betting on Asia

Having reached a semi-annual maximum, gold entered a state of consolidation, preferring to take a breath amid uncertainty about the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations and the timing of the resumption of the US government, on the one hand, and the stabilization of financial markets, on the other. Investors at the beginning of the year seriously feared the global recession, but strong statistics on the US labor market, a slight reduction in World Bank forecasts and the Fed's willingness to pause in the process of normalizing monetary policy put a stake on the bulls in XAU / USD.

2018 was mixed for the precious metal. A strong US dollar, rising real yields on treasury bonds and sluggish Asian demand for physical assets for most of the year put downward pressure on prices. According to the unwelcome sources of Bloomberg in the government of India, imports in this country in 2018 decreased by 20% to 762 tons. The December figure fell by 23% y / y to 60 tons. The main reason is the devaluation of the rupee, which made gold overly expensive. However, according to Commerzbank, in 2019 we are expected to see an increase in imports amid increasing Indian interest in investments and a weakening US dollar.

Dynamics of Indian gold imports

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Interest in ETF products is increasing worldwide. The World Gold Council estimates the growth of stocks of specialized exchange funds of 76 tons in December. Commerzbank notes that since the beginning of the year, the indicator has grown by 18.6 tons. The fact that the People's Bank of China has increased for the first time since October 2016 its gold reserves up to 1853 tons, also gives optimism to the "bulls" on XAU / USD. In the conditions of the slowdown of the economy of the Middle Kingdom and the policy of protection of Donald Trump, Beijing prefers to reduce its dependence on the States and instead of treasury bonds, they buy precious metals. Russia and Turkey are following the same path, and other central banks may follow.

Gold dynamics and ETF stocks

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A potential increase in investment demand is by no means the only driver of rising gold prices. A pause in the process of normalizing the monetary policy of the Fed and the slowdown of the global economy are giving him a helping hand. If in 2018 the Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate four times, in 2019 it may even refrain from monetary restriction. As a result, the real yield of Treasury bonds and the US dollar will fall, and the XAU / USD quotes will go up. The World Bank believes that global GDP will slow down from 3% to 2.9% this year, the American economy from 2.9% to 2.5%, and the Chinese economy from 6.5% to 6.2%. Thus, it is not about a recession. There is a soft landing, but this factor keeps the yield of bonds around the world under pressure and contributes to the growth of the precious metal.

Technically, after reaching a target of 200% for the AB = CD pattern, the risks of a gold correction in the direction of 23.6% and 38% of the last upward wave increased.

Gold, the daily chart

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Yellow metal price will rise in case of failure of the Fed to raise rates

According to analysts of a large American company, BlackRock, the refusal of raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) could be a catalyst for the rise in gold prices.

Since August last year, the yellow metal is in an uptrend. Experts note that after a short-term consolidation last week, the price of gold began to rise again, wherein for 1 ounce of the precious metal was given $1,292.

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According to the forecasts of the BlackRock company specialists, a positive the trend in gold prices is expected to be positive in the near future. The company believes that fears of a recession are exaggerated, although the situation in global markets will not be very positive. Under these conditions, the yellow metal will be supported for further growth.

BlackRock experts are confident that gold will be a good and reliable asset for any investment portfolio. "The yellow metal will have a positive effect on the entire investment portfolio and will balance the risks," experts say.

Last year, the cost of gold was under pressure from two factors that impede growth including the increase in the real interest rates in the United States and the strengthening of the American currency. Analysts believe that in case of a slowdown in the growth of interest rates, the pressure on the value of gold will decrease.

BlackRock believes that in the event of high volatility of the stock market and political instability, the precious metal will once again become the focus of investors' attention. The yellow metal is an excellent means of preserving capital in the long term, especially in case of increasing risks in the stock market, analysts sum up.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for January 9

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we are following the development of the upward cycle of January 2. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue the development of the ascending structure from January 2 after the breakdown of 1.2813. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, after the cancellation of the ascending structure, we follow the development of the downward cycle of January 2. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect to continue moving upwards after passing by the price of the range of 108.95 - 109.21. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 125.14. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we also continue to follow the development of the upward structure from January 3 and the level of 139.50 is the key resistance.

Forecast for January 9:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1578, 1.1554, 1.1519, 1.1492, 1.1451, 1.1428 and 1.1401. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure from January 2. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1492 - 1.1519 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1554. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 1.1578, upon reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1451 - 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the target is 1.1401 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1492 Take profit: 1.1515

Buy 1.1523 Take profit: 1.1554

Sell: 1.1451 Take profit: 1.1430

Sell: 1.1425 Take profit: 1.1404

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2960, 1.2875, 1.2813, 1.2734, 1.2695 and 1.2645. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 2. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2813. In this case, the target is 1.2875 and in the range of 1.2813 - 1.2875 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2960, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2734 - 1.2695 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2645 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2870

Buy: 1.2877 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: 1.2734 Take profit: 1.2698

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2660

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9864, 0.9834, 0.9816, 0.9786, 0.9767, 0.9742 and 0.9725. Here, after the abolition of the ascending structure, we are following the development of the downward movement of January 2. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9786 - 0.9767 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9742. A potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9725, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9816 - 0.9834 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9864 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 2.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9832

Buy: 0.9836 Take profit: 0.9860

Sell: 0.9784 Take profit: 0.9769

Sell: 0.9765 Take profit: 0.9746

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 110.12, 109.58, 109.21, 108.95, 108.63, 108.34 and 107.93. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3 on the scale of M30. Passing through the range of 108.95 - 109.21 will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 109.58, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 110.12, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.63 - 108.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.93 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.21 Take profit: 109.58

Buy: 109.65 Take profit: 110.10

Sell: 108.60 Take profit: 108.38

Sell: 108.32 Take profit: 107.95

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 31 and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of December 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7207, 0.7131, 0.7102 and 0.7059. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7207. In this case, the target is 0.7207. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7313, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7131 - 0.7102 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.7059 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7207 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7275 Take profit: 0.7310

Sell: 0.7131 Take profit: 0.7105

Sell: 0.7100 Take profit: 0.7065

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 124.22, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 3. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 124.22 - 123.74 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 123.05 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 124.20 Take profit: 123.78

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 141.90, 140.50, 139.49, 137.49, 136.81 and 135.70. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 3. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 139.50. In this case, the first target is 140.50 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 141.90, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 137.49 - 136.81 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 135.70 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 139.55 Take profit: 140.50

Buy: 140.55 Take profit: 141.60

Sell: 137.45 Take profit: 136.85

Sell: 136.75 Take profit: 136.00

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 9, 2019

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel

Shortly after, a quick decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2650-1.2680. Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

On December 31, early bullish breakout attempt above 1.2720 was demonstrated on the H4 chart. However, the market failed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum above 1.2800 (mid-range of the depicted consolidation range).

That's why, another bearish pullback was executed towards 1.2500 (backside of the broken channel) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated during last Thursday's consolidations.

Today, another bullish breakout above 1.2720 is being attempted to resume the bullish scenario of the market towards 1.2800, 1.2880 and 1.3000. Otherwise, the pair remains trapped within the previous consolidation range (1.2500-1.2720).

Bullish persistence above 1.2720 is mandatory for buyers. Any bearish decline below 1.2600 invalidates the bullish scenario suggesting further bearish decline towards 1.2440.

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EUR / USD pair: Plan for the US session on January 9. Another unsuccessful attempt of euro buyers to return in the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Despite the decline in unemployment in the eurozone, the demand for the euro remains quite weak before the publication of the Fed's channels. The bulls are still required to break through the resistance of 1.1465, which will open the direct route to the maximum of December last year in the area of 1.1497 and lead to an update of the area of 1.1525, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of the euro decline in the second half of the day, one should not pay attention to the support level of 1.1435, and it is best to open long positions in EUR/USD pair for a rebound from the minimum of 1.1407 and 1.1378.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance of 1.1465, which I drew attention to in my morning review led to a return to the market of sellers, which maintains a downward impulse in euros in order to test a larger support area of 1.1407 and 1.1378, where I recommend taking profits. The publication of the minutes of the Fed in the afternoon may alter the movement of the pair to the support of 1.1349. If the EUR / USD pair rises above the resistance of 1.1465, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1497 and 1.1515.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1470 limits the upward potential of the euro. The lower boundary of the indicator in the area 1.1435 will act as a support.

More in the video forecast for January 9

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Bitcoin analysis for January 09, 2019

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that BTC reached my yesterday's upward target at $4.050. Anyway, I found strong rejection from the resistance at the price of $4.050, which is the warning sign for further upward movement. BTC is trading in a sideways mode now. Watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $3.900 and at the price of $3.850.

Support/Resistance

$4.050 – Intraday resistance

$3.898– Intraday support

$.3.900 – Objective target 1

$3.850 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 9, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently but for a few hours it is correcting itself above $4,000 area. The price is being propped up by the dynamic support area of Kumo Cloud as well as the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, 200 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line which are intersecting each other and encouraging the price to climb higher. After the price bounced off the 200 EMA and broke above $4,000 area, it established a target to jump even higher with strong momentum. After impulsive pressure, the market is correcting itself. After this corrective phase, the price is expected to move higher towards $4,250, $4,500 and later towards $5,000 area in the future. As the price remains above $4,000 area, the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 9, 2019

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a long-term Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower border of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped below the price level of 1.1420, waiting for a bullish breakout since November 5.

Today, another attempt of a bullish breakout above 1.1420 is being executed. Bullish persistence above 1.1420 enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 (the upper border of the daily channel) and 1.1600 (October's High) as initial targets.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below the key level of 1.1420 brings more sideway consolidations down to 1.1260 again.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 09, 2019

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2734. According to the M15 time frame, I have found that there is a potential change in the trend behavior from the bullish to bearish. I have also found that there is a potential end of the upward correction (abc flat) in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2708 and at the price of 1.2618.

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Analysis of Gold for January 09, 2019

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,280.00. According to the H4 time frame, I have found a breakout of the upward trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that buyers are exhausted and there is a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,270 and at the price of $1,250.00.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 9. The pound remains in the channel and waits for news from the British

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Buyers failed to consolidate above the support level of 1.2753 in the first half of the day, although there were preconditions for further growth. At the moment, only another confident break above this level will return the chance to continue the upward trend, which will lead to the test of the resistance level of 1.2798. Only after that will it be possible to count on updating the highs of 1.2868 and 1.2929, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.2708, it is best to consider long positions to rebound from the lows of 1.2658 and 1.2614.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above 1.2753 in the first half of the day will make it possible to build the upper limit of the new descending channel, as well as count on a further decrease in the pound. A breakdown of support at 1.2708 will lead to a rapid decline in GBP / USD to the lows of 1.2658 and 1.2614, where I recommend fixing the profits. Positive news on Brexit from the UK Parliament could lead to a sharp increase in the pound. In this scenario, short positions can be opened after the highs of 1.2868 and 1.2929 are updated.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates a possible change in the bull trend.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2705 will lead to a larger drop in the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro growth was driven by optimism in US-China trade negotiations

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Euros and commodity-linked currencies are rising amid optimism about trade negotiations between the US and China. The new round has improved investor sentiment and contributed to the sale of the dollar. Expectations of further easing of monetary policy in China also supported the markets: Asian and European stocks opened with growth.

All these factors create an ideal background for riskier assets, the general mood corresponds. News that Beijing and Washington agreed to extend trade negotiations and will have an unplanned third day helped stimulate demand for riskier assets and commodity currencies. On the other hand, the euro is under pressure from an unexpected drop in industrial production in Germany, which underlined concerns about the ECB's plans to curtail incentive programs.

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Rising prices for riskier assets accelerated since last Friday, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that he is aware of the risks to the economy and will be patient in making political decisions this year. This eased the concern that the Fed would raise rates, despite the weakness of the US economy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Another pause of the Fed may be less effective than three years ago.

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According to representatives of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA, the current situation resembles the events of three years ago, when uncertainty about the growth prospects of the global economy kept financial markets in tension for several months.

At present, the regulator is forced to balance between the obligation to keep inflation under control and the desire to prevent the country's economy from slipping into recession. In 2016, he succeeded. Then the American Central Bank was set to raise the interest rate four times. However, the collapse of stock markets prevented these plans from being realized. As a result, the rate remained unchanged most of the year, and the Fed decided to raise it only in December by 0.25%.

According to experts, although the regulator still has the opportunity to take a pause in the cycle of tightening monetary policy, this time it may not have such a calming effect as it did three years ago.

"In 2016, the US economy was able to survive the" turbulence" in the market, and the United States recorded the second longest period of GDP growth in history. But now the Fed cannot afford to rely only on the so-called "automatic stabilizer," analysts said.

"The Fed entered in 2019, predicting two interest rate hikes, although its decline this year becomes more likely. However, the regulator is unlikely to go for it. Meanwhile, Congress was once again at an impasse, and the trade war between the United States and the Middle Kingdom intensifies uncertainty. And although the White House believes that the weakness of the economy of the Middle Kingdom makes Beijing be active in negotiations, the consequences for the United States may be no less sad, especially since the American monetary and fiscal stimuli will gradually disappear. And let the next storming of the resistance level at $ 1.1480 has not yielded a result yet, the "bulls" on the euro still hope to bring the EUR / USD pair to a new operational space," they added.

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The cost of oil is rising against the background of trade negotiations between the United States and China

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According to Reuters, black gold prices increased by more than 2% due to trade negotiations between the United States and China.

The cost of futures for benchmark Brent crude for delivery in February on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures rose 2.4%, reaching $ 58.72 a barrel. The price of January futures for light crude oil WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 2.6% to $ 49.78 a barrel. During the bidding, the contract value reached $ 49.95 per barrel, which is the maximum value since December 17, 2018.

According to experts, expectations of a further increase in oil demand in the event of successful negotiations between the US and the PRC influenced the price increase. At the moment, negotiations are going well, said Steven Wynberg, a representative of the American delegation. On Monday, January 7, US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China expressed hope for a mutually beneficial settlement of the dispute.

Recall that in December 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to postpone the introduction of new duties for 90 days. If it is impossible to conclude an agreement in March of this year, Washington will continue a sharp rise in tariffs for Chinese goods, but Beijing may respond. Many analysts are confident that tensions between the two largest economies, the Chinese and the American, may escalate again.

According to forecasts for 2019 from the largest agency S & P Global Ratings, the average cost of black gold will decrease by $ 10. Brent oil will fall in price to $ 55 per barrel, and WTI oil, to $ 50 per barrel. On Wednesday, January 9, the price of February futures for Brent crude rose by 1.38%, to $ 59.53 a barrel. Market participants are concerned that a possible slowdown in global economic growth will have a negative impact on hydrocarbon consumption.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 09, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1342.

Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.1342, and the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.1342, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the uptrend.

According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1342 and 1.1550. So, the support stands at 1.1342, while daily resistance is found at 1.1550.

Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.1342. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above the spot of 1.1342 with the first target at the level of 1.1550; and then towards 1.1603.

However, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1550 today, the market will decline further to 1.1257.

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EUR / USD: the storm has passed, the dollar is again under pressure

"Fear has big eyes", this is how one can characterize the situation on the foreign exchange market over the past 24 hours. Traders were seriously alarmed by the fact that the American president could impose a state of emergency in the United States, thus exacerbating the conflict between the White House and Congress. Also, the anti-risk sentiment was provoked by the behavior of the negotiators from the States and China, or rather their silence. The market interpreted this silence in its own way, reinforcing the demand for the American currency. Against this background, the EUR / USD was able to move away from local highs, showing a slight correction.

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However, the EUR / USD bears did not receive adequate support from the fundamental background. Firstly, Trump's speech, contrary to many predictions, turned out to be very calm. During a special appeal to the Americans, he did not declare a state of emergency to solve the problem of financing the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico. The president actively "advertised" the advantages of this border barrier, saying at the same time that the wall "will pay off very quickly," referring to the costs associated with drug trafficking. Also, Donald Trump again accused the Democrats in a long period of "shutdown". According to him, this problem can be solved "in 45 minutes." In conclusion, he invited the leaders of both parties in Congress to the next meeting at the White House.

Traders are clearly preparing for the worst, given Trump's impulsiveness and rumors about the imposition of a state of emergency. Therefore, such a peaceful mood of the president has resumed the risk appetite in the market, and the demand for the dollar has decreased significantly. In addition, the first comments of the parties on the results of the US-China negotiations appeared in the information environment. So, the representatives of the United States declared that they had an "excellent and promising dialogue." A similar position was expressed by the Chinese. And although they did not begin to talk about the details of the meeting, their optimism instilled hope for the conclusion of a broad trading deal in the foreseeable future. By the way, even Trump in his Twitter noted that "negotiations with China are going very well". Again, without going into details.

In other words, the events of the past 12 hours leveled the panic that supported the American currency yesterday. Now greenback is again alone with its problems, the relevance of which has not disappeared anywhere. We are talking about slowing the pace of tightening the monetary policy of the Fed against the background of a decrease in key macroeconomic indicators. In recent days, this topic is no longer being actively discussed, but today there will be an excellent reason for this. In the evening, the States will publish the minutes of the last Fed meeting. In general, traders are waiting for the protocol to answer one common question: how strongly are members of the American regulator concerned about the state of the US economy?

Let me remind you that the Fed at its December meeting reduced the approximate number of rate hikes next year to two. At the same time, the regulator lowered forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, thereby justifying the decision to slow down the tightening of monetary policy. The dollar's reaction was relatively low-key. The regulator chose not the softest scenario, so the US currency held back the onslaught of sellers, although it fell in price across the entire market.

But the thing is that the point forecast is not quite a reliable guide. For example, in September, this forecast reflected a triple rate increase in 2019, but then many experts doubted its implementation. Even then, quite alarming signals have received that spoke of a slowdown in US economic growth. The results of the December meeting confirmed the concerns of traders. In other words, now many market participants doubt that the Fed will double the rate next year. In their opinion, everything will depend on the dynamics of key indicators.

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The Fed's report published today will either confirm investors' concerns or maintain hope for a double rate hike this year. However, here we recall two things: first, the four members of the Fed, who had the right to vote in December, will not have it in January and beyond throughout the year. In a rotation, they will be replaced by colleagues whose views may differ from those of the "predecessors". Secondly, the pigeon position of the Fed has already been confirmed by Jerome Powell, not only at his press conference but also during subsequent speeches. Therefore, the market is ready for the Fed's soft rhetoric, and this fact will not be any surprise for traders.

In other words, one should not expect a "storm of volatility" tonight. The regulator will most likely use the published protocol to remind traders about the Fed's "dovish attitude" once again, this fact has already been taken into account in prices and is unlikely to cause a surge in EUR / USD. Nevertheless, the overall pressure on the greenback will help the pair of bulls to overcome the notorious resistance level of 1.1480 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on D1), in order to reach the next resistance level of 1.1515. If the protocol is surprised by "hawkish" notes (which is unlikely), then the pair will return to the 13th figure.

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Trump and Brexit: Trump is waiting for an agreement with China, and the UK Parliament is preparing to discuss an agreement

The euro is trying to get back into the game and is gradually regaining its positions lost against the US dollar yesterday, amid weak statistics indicating a likely slowdown in the German economy at the end of last year.

Meanwhile, negotiations between the US and China continue. As it became known, the negotiators have reduced differences over trade, and, according to rumors, progress was made yesterday on the purchase of American products and services by the PRC. Donald Trump said in his Twitter that the discussions are going very well, but the United States and China are not yet ready to enter into a trade agreement. High-level talks are expected later in January.

In the meantime, it became known that trade negotiations between the US and China will continue on Wednesday, although initially it was planned for two days. This inspires optimism and confidence that negotiators will be able to achieve good results. According to news agencies, US President Donald Trump is determined to enter into an agreement to support the weakened stock market.

Yesterday, data came out that indicated that consumer lending in the United States grew more than expected in November, which will definitely have a positive effect on the state of the economy in the future.

According to the report of the Federal Reserve System, unsecured consumer lending in the United States in November increased by 22.15 billion US dollars compared with October, and the annual growth of lending amounted to 6.7%. Economists had expected a $ 19.0 billion increase in lending in November. The volume of revolving loans increased in November by 5.5% compared to the same period of 2016, while non-revolving loans showed an annual growth of 7.1%.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, it remained unchanged.

Bears intend to re-form a false breakdown of resistance in the area of 1.1470, which will lead to the formation of a bearish direction. In this case, a further downward correction will be contained by large support levels around 1.1400 and 1.1350. In the case of growth above 1.1470, sellers will declare themselves in the region of the maximum of December last year.

The British pound fell only slightly after reports appeared that British authorities were considering the possibility of postponing their exit from the EU, which is scheduled for March 29. Apparently, traders and investors do not take this scenario seriously and expect to conclude an agreement. A number of experts note that the probability of a delay is already taken into account in the current quotes of the pound.

Yesterday, the London First UK business group, which represents the largest London companies, called for a second referendum on UK membership in the EU. But there is a slight amendment to the condition under which the British Parliament will vote against the Brexit plan proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, trading continues in a narrow price range after the bears did not let the pair above the resistance of 1.2800. A break of 1.2700 support may increase the pressure on the pound, which will return the trading instrument to the minimum areas of 1.2650 and 1.2610.

Despite the fact that Canada's foreign trade deficit increased in November, the Canadian dollar continues to recover against the US dollar after a prolonged decline due to a drop in oil prices. A negative contribution to the shortage of foreign trade made oil exports.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, foreign trade deficit in November amounted to 2.060 billion Canadian dollars, while economists had expected a deficit of 2.15 billion Canadian dollars.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on January 9. Discussion of Brexit agreement begins in British Parliament

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Today, the UK Parliament is discussing the Brexit agreement, which could lead to a surge in pound volatility if Teresa May offers nothing new. At present, a good buy signal will be a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2708. On the other hand, a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.2753 resistance, which will keep demand for the pound and lead to a test of maximum 1.2798, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decline below the support level of 1.2708, you can open long positions immediately to the rebound from 1.2658, where the lower limit of the new ascending channel will be formed.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Today, bears will try to maintain a downward correction and another unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2753 may provoke closure of a number of long positions returning to the intermediate support area of 1.2708 and updating a larger area 1.2658, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.2753, you can take a closer look at short positions after the testing level of 1.2798 or at a rebound from the new monthly maximum of 1.2868.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the end of the upward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2708 may resume pressure on the pound.

Found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 09, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected four times confirming the veracity of the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level at 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7219. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. But overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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CAD is waiting for an obstacle in the form of the Bank of Canada

The Canadian dollar showed the best dynamics in the first days of January among the major currencies, but things can change dramatically after the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada. Although no rate hikes are expected, recent CAD movements indicate that some investors are counting on the recognition of the strength of the labor market and the support it provides to the economy.

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Canadian regulator officials can spoil the mood of the bulls. After tightening the policy in October and declaring that rates should rise to neutral levels, they made the market believe in further tightening. Later, due to the decline in oil prices and sharp fluctuations in the stock market, the financial authorities moderated their fervor.

Now that black gold prices have pushed away from local minima, the stock market has been recovering for several days in a row. At the same time, the indices are still below the marks during the December meeting of the Central Bank. In addition, a serious jump in employment in the November-December period did not contribute to the strengthening of the rest of the economy. Consumer spending is growing slowly and there is a risk of lower inflation.

Significantly affected by the US trade wars, oil production got cheaper, currency weakened, as well as the trading activity. Despite the fact that the Canadian regulator has fewer worries now as compared to December, he is unlikely to change his forecast when the stock market and oil fell. Too little time has passed since the situation has improved.

The Bank of Canada will also present a monetary policy report and updated economic forecasts, followed by a press conference by the head of the regulator. Representatives of the Central Bank will have many opportunities to clarify their estimates and set the stage for the next major move of the USD/CAD pair.

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If the financiers focus on the problems of Western Canada and the economy as a whole, the pair will reverse to the detriment of the need to return rates to a neutral level. There is a chance of a rebound in USD/CAD pair to 1.34. Provided that the last indicators will be enough to instill confidence in the Central Bank and this will allow him to declare a further increase in rates, the USD/CAD in flight down can reach to 1.3180.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for January 9, 2019

USD/CAD has been quite impulsive and non-volatile with the recent bearish momentum after bouncing off the 1.3650 resistance area with a daily close. Ahead of the Bank of Canada's Interest Rate decision, US FOMC minutes, and FED Chair Powell's speech, this pair is expected to be quite volatile and indecisive this week.

After the mixed employment reports published in the US recently, USD has been hurt by worse-than-expected data. So, USD lost ground in response. Recently US ISM Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 57.6 from the previous figure of 60.7 which was expected to be at 59.6 and JOLTS Job Opening also showed a decline 6.89M from the previous figure of 7.13M which was expected to be at 7.07M. Today ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes, FOMC Members Evans and Rosengren are going to speak about the Fed's agenda for monetary tightening tat is expected to have a positive impact on USD. Besides, FED Chair Powell is going to speak tomorrow. His speech could be hawkish, leading to further gains of USD.

On the CAD side, recent positive economic reports like Ivery PMI showed an increase to 59.7 from the previous figure of 57.2 which was expected to be at 58.1 and Trade Balance posted a decrease to -2.1B as expected from the previous figure of -0.9B. Today the Bank of Canada Statement, Monetary Policy Report, and Overnight Rate decision are due later today. The benchmark interest rate is expected to be unchanged at 1.75%.

The Bank of Canada is uncertain about the recent economic status. Thus, the regulator is widely expected to put the key policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. As a result, CAD could lose certain grounds against USD in the coming days but the long-term bias is still on the side of CAD.

Now let us look at the technical view. After the Bearish Divergence was spotted, the price sank lower impulsively recently, leading the price to reside at the edge of 1.3200 area. On the grounds of the current price formation, the pair is expected to retrace higher towards 1.3350 area before moving lower with the trend with a target towards 1.3000 and later towards1.2850 support area. As the price remains below 1.3500 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2850, 1.3000, 1.3200

RESISTANCE: 1.3350, 1.3500, 1.3600

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on January 9. The traders are waiting for the publication of the protocols of the

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

As I noted yesterday, the growth potential of the euro is gradually coming to an end, and today, in order to maintain the upward movement, the bulls need a break of the resistance level of 1.1465, which will open a direct path to the maximum of December last year in the area of 1.1497 and will lead to an update of the area of 1.1525, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the euro decline scenario in the first half of the day, the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1435 will also be a signal to buy, otherwise opening long positions in EUR / USD is best for a rebound from 1.1407.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Yesterday's weak data on the eurozone economy have limited the growth of the euro, and today all attention will be tied to the protocols of the Federal Reserve System, which is likely to lead to the strengthening of the US dollar. A breakout and consolidation below the support level of 1.1435, or the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1465, will be a signal to open short positions in order to further downward correction to the area of the larger support area of 1.1407 and 1.1378, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of continued growth in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.1465, it is best to open short positions to rebound from the maximum of 1.1497.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the end of the upward trend in the euro.

Bollinger bands

Growth is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the 1.1470 area. The downward trend will also be contained by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1430.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 9. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Donald Trump delivered, Mark Carney will perform in the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 52.1042

The currency pair GBP / USD on Wednesday, January 9, is trying to resume an upward movement, not having worked out the moving within the correction. So far, the upward trend in the instrument is maintained. Donald Trump's nightly performance did not have a strong impact on the markets. Trump reported that the Democratic Party refuses to accept his proposal for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico. From his point of view, the wall is extremely necessary, since it is difficult for the American border guards to fight the invasion of migrants, the country itself can no longer cope with the task of providing them and deportation. The US leader also announced that he had invited the leaders of Congress to the White House to discuss the resumption of the work of the government. In his opinion, the work of the government can be resumed in 45 minutes. Emergency mode Trump is not going to enter, although, again, according to him, it would solve the issue of financing the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico. Traders do not consider the current situation in America as critical or negatively affecting the country's economy. "Shutdown" happened before. However, it should still be recognized that in the current environment, it will be difficult for the US currency to show growth. Mark Carney will be performing in the UK today, which could potentially be very interesting and important.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2695

S2 - 1.2634

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2756

R2 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has completed the correction. Therefore, at the moment, it is again recommended to consider purchase orders with targets 1.2756 and 1.2817. Above the moving average line remains the possibility of strengthening the pound sterling.

It is recommended to open the short positions no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line with the first target of 1.2634. In this case, the bears will seize the initiative for a while.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 9. The trading system. "Regression Channels". "Shutdown" in the US continues, the emergency is not yet

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 90.0234

The EUR / USD currency pair has corrected and almost completed the moving average line, and today it has resumed its upward movement. True, Murray's level of "8/8" has not yet been worked out, and above it, it will be very difficult for the instrument to consolidate, since there are few fundamental grounds for further growth in the euro currency. Thus, in the near future, we expect one of two options to be fulfilled. Either the pair will overcome Murray's level of "8/8" and then we can talk about a full-fledged uptrend, or the pair will go below the moving average and remain within the side channel with a slight upward slope. Today in the euro zone, the publication of the unemployment rate for November is scheduled, and in the evening, the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published. The unemployment rate is unlikely to coincide with the forecast value of 8.1%, and the Fed's protocols are more formal and rarely contain new and interesting information. Thus, traders today are unlikely to react to macroeconomic events. The nightly appeal of Donald Trump to the nation has so far not caused a special reaction. The suspension of the work of the US government has been compiled for almost 20 days, and the reason is Trump's desire to build a wall on the border with Mexico and the Democratic Party's refusal to support this initiative.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1444

S2 - 1.1414

S3 - 1.1383

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1505

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its upward movement. Therefore, long positions with a view to 1.1475 are again relevant. However, above this level, the pair will be difficult to consolidate. Therefore, you need to be ready to turn in this area.

Short positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than traversing the moving average. In this case, the instrument may begin to decline to the level of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 9. Euro retains the possibility of falling due to divergence

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US dollar, after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, but already completed the closing above the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446. As a result, on January 9, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.1517. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 38.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and it is expected to fall in the direction of the level of 23.6% - 1.1358.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues to trade above the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285, while maintaining the possibility of growth to a correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2%. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Closing above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1517 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 38.2% since the pair has completed consolidation above the level of 1.1446.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1446.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 9th. A small rollback before the new fall?

4h

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On a 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator, reversed in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling towards the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. The end of the pair on January 9 from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and a slight increase in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2812.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the quotes performed a close above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2725. Thus, the pair can continue to grow today in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2815. Fixing quotations under the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the American dollar and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2669. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2815 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% since the pair completed closing above the level of 1.2725 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2669 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2725 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets want to believe in the best

The end of last year and the beginning of the current one was marked by the expectation of a new trade agreement between the US and China. Negotiations began on Monday this week and after two days have not yet yielded the desired result. Previously it was planned that they would pass during these two days, but during this time no agreement was reached, which made markets worry, although it did not have a negative impact on them.

If today again there will be no result, and only positive expectations that were previously present will be available, then we can expect a drop in optimism in the markets and the resumption of sales of risky assets. This is due to the fact that investors now have few phrases from President D. Trump from Twitter that the discussion of the negotiation process "is going very well." Previously, he repeatedly scattered optimism, which in fact turned out to be a pacifier.

Since so far there is some uncertainty in the negotiations between the States and America, all market attention is still focused on expectations that the Fed may stop the interest rate increase cycle this year and, importantly, stop the process of reducing its balance sheet. A number of statements by some members of the Federal Reserve immediately after the New Year that it would be nice to suspend the continuation of the normalization of monetary policy, as well as the statement of the head of the US Central Bank about "quickly and flexibly" adjusting the policy if necessary, became the basis that led to a strong the growth of the US stock market immediately after the "Catholic" Christmas, which was also the basis for the recovery of demand for risky assets in the world.

On this wave, the US dollar remains under pressure, as the prospects for halting the increase in interest rates, as well as the overall demand for risky assets, put pressure on it. This primarily relates to the commodity group currencies, as well as the currencies of countries with developing economies (EM). On this wave in recent days there has been a strong increase in the exchange rate of the ruble and the Canadian dollar, which also receive support due to the upturn in crude oil prices, which in turn is supported by the OPEC + decision to reduce crude oil production to stimulate black gold prices.

In general, assessing the market picture, we can say that while the markets live with hopes that an agreement between Washington and Beijing will still be reached, the Fed will suspend the process of raising interest rates and reducing the balance, and the tragedy of Brexit will not be monstrous. But are these expectations real? We have doubts about this, so we are not so optimistic in our forecasts for the first quarter of the new year and continue to adhere to our scenario of the likely development of events, which was set out in the yesterday's review.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is trading in the range of 1.1350-1.1475. If the protocol of the December meeting of the Fed published today shows an increase in the probability of a pause in raising interest rates, the dollar will be under pressure and the pair may break out of range and rush to 1.1530.

The USD / CAD currency pair is trading below 1.3265 in anticipation of the outcome of the Canadian Central Bank meeting on monetary policy. For the time being, it is not supposed that the rates will be raised, but if this happens or the bank will make it clear at the end of the meeting that we should expect an increase in rates in the near future, the pair may continue to fall to 1.3160.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast of EUR / USD for January 9, 2019

EUR / USD

On Tuesday, economic data for the euro area countries came out worse than expected. German industrial production in November fell by 1.9%, France's trade balance for the same period worsened the balance from -4.1 billion euros to -5.1 billion work schedules, daily and H4.

To continue the price reduction, it is necessary to fulfill the previous condition, to consolidate below the line of the price channel on the daily scale chart of 1.1407. Overcoming this level will automatically correspond to price fixing under the Kruzenshtern line on H4. In this case, we expect a decline to 1.1309, the minimum of January 3, December 11 and November 30.

We are waiting for the development of the current situation in this way.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com