BITCOIN Analysis for July 26, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite volatile and corrective today after an impulsive bearish momentum yesterday with a daily close. As the recent impulsive non-volatile bullish momentum was formed after a break above $6,500 with a daily close, BTC price is likely to bounce towards $7,500-8,000 area. Afterwards, the price is expected to continue its bullish run with a target towards $10,000 in the nearest days. Despite the lack of strong fundamentals to encourage further bullish pressure, the bullish bias is expected to continue as the price remains above $6,500 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 6500, 7500, 8000

RESISTANCE: 10,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE AND CORRECTIVE

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Europe and the US: Allies again

Europe and the US: Allies again.

On Wednesday, July 25, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to stop the US-EU trade war, a war that has already begun to unfold: Trump previously introduced duties against the supply of steel and aluminum from the EU, the EU introduced retaliatory measures.

The parties agreed: (a) Do not introduce new fees against each other, at least while negotiations are in progress. However, since no terms have been named, in fact this is a truce. The truce can last a long time, but it is possible that Trump can withdraw from the truce unilaterally. (b) the EU and the US agreed to work on reducing tariffs and barriers in mutual trade. (c) The EU promised to purchase soy beans and liquefied natural gas in the US.

Let's pay attention that this is the first positive change in US-Europe relations after a number of conflicts. Trump finished the meeting of the Group of Seven in Canada, "slamming the door", refused to sign the final document, quarreled with the Canadian prime minister and attacked Europe.

Further, Trump attacked Germany at a meeting of NATO countries. Trump blamed Europe for understated defense spending and demanded an immediate increase in spending, threatening the US with a rejection of NATO commitments.

And, finally, the culmination was the plan of Trump to impose a duty of 20-25% on cars from Europe.

And here is an unexpected reconciliation.

What is Trump's tricky initial plan or improvisation?

I think the second is faster. We must understand that Trump entered into the taste of the political game. Trump clearly wants to try to get elected for a second term in 2020, and wants the Republicans not to lose the elections in the interim this fall.

We know that Trump is waging a trade war against China and the matter is moving to the fact that in the case of China such an easy reconciliation as with Europe may not be. At the same time, Trump as if hinting to China. See, we can agree, if, of course, you give in to me, Trump.

If we assume that China will not make concessions and will conduct a tough line of retaliation against US duties, Trump is extremely important allies and this, of course, Europe, a market no smaller than the US market. At the Trump-Juncker meeting, it is likely that the position of Europe in the US-China trade war was discussed. We know that earlier China called on Europe to fight together against Trump's trade duties.

Thus, Trump unexpectedly showed the ability to lead a long-term political game. The US again has a strong ally, Europe, and the US can agree with Europe on the common position in the US-China trade war (and there is another issue of Iran).

The attention of the markets in the short term today switches to the ECB's monetary policy decision, and in August, to the US-China trade war. On August 20, a discussion of a new list of goods from China is planned for the imposition of new duties up to $ 200 billion, with the possibility of increasing the amount to $ 500 billion. That is, the entire volume of US imports from China.

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GBP / USD. 25th of July. Theresa May decided to negotiate independently with Brussels

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 110p - 125p - 145p - 76p - 87p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 109p (131p).

In the past few days, the pound felt more or less calm. The threat of imposing trade duties on almost all imports from China, as well as on all products of the automobile industry of the EU, has pushed the dollar. This is where we focus our attention - the dollar is getting cheaper, and not the pound sterling is growing. Also, the time-out for the British currency was due to the lack of new information on the issue of Brexit. However, today it became known that the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, decided to personally negotiate the withdrawal of the UK and the European Union. At the same time, Dominic Raab, the UK exit minister, who recently replaced David Davis in this position, will take the place of Deputy May. What does this mean for the UK and the pound sterling? First, the fact that now the negotiations will be conducted directly by the head of the country without intermediaries, which, as the recent practice has shown, can resign and vacate the posts in the middle of such an important process for the country, which certainly hinders the whole process. Secondly, Theresa May will be easier to negotiate independently, and the chances that the parties will still agree will increase. However, we draw the attention of traders to the fact that the topic Brexit can go back to the second plan if new information from the White House arrives. For example, today, when information about the progress and results of negotiations between Trump and Juncker begins to arrive. We believe that the parties are unlikely to agree amicably, although for the EU such an option would be most preferable. One way or another, demand for the dollar today and tomorrow may grow, and the weak rhetoric of Draghi at tomorrow's press conference could spur demand for the US currency, which will indirectly affect the position of the pound sterling.

Hourly chart

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The potential of the upward movement, from the point of view of technical analysis, is running low. This is clearly seen on the hourly chart - the upward movement slows down. If traders manage to overcome the lower trend line, then the trend on the instrument will change to a downward trend. And on the 4-hour chart, we will expect the formation of a "dead cross" from Ichimoku.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed weak upward movement, however low volatility and big doubts in overcoming Senkou Span B line call into question a further upward move. Therefore, we recommend shortening the pair with targets 1,3104 and the Kijun-sen line at the first signal (for example, overcoming the trend line on the hourly chart or reversing the MACD down).

Buy-positions are recommended to be opened after the price rebound from the trend line, MACD on the 4-hour chart should be directed upwards. In this case, the bulls can continue to press on the pair and gain a foothold above the cloud Ichimoku. The target for Longs is 1.3212.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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The dollar is looking for a foothold

The US dollar froze in a rather narrow range against its main competitors, as the main driver that pushed it towards strengthening in recent months is questioned. First of all, the Fed's plans to normalize monetary policy, implemented since 2015, risk leading to negative consequences in the economy and even to a recession much earlier than it was supposed quite recently. The strength of the US economy is questioned, the tax reform gives a result below expectations, which is reflected in the revision of forecasts both for tax revenues and the budget, and on Trump's ability to carry out the promised modernization of the economy. The HIS Markit report on business activity in July showed that the impetus to economic growth after the launch of the tax reform is nearing completion. The growth in production volumes recorded in the second quarter is coming to naught, but threats regarding tariff wars and higher prices look more and more significant. The output in June at 54.6p is the weakest since November last year, in July the growth will be even smaller, the June inflow of orders is also at a minimum since November, which directly indicates a slowdown in demand, export orders fell for the first time in 11 months.

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The main problem reported by managers, according to polls is the threat of escalation of tariff wars. We remember the origins of this war, right after the election to the office of president, Trump announced that he intends to fight an unjust, in his opinion, imbalance in trade relations. Almost immediately, before the inauguration, attempts were made to force Japan, Germany, Mexico and China to voluntarily consider investing in the American economy, to finance the plan for the re-industrialization of the United States announced in the pre-election race.

This cavalry assault was not successful, of the large countries with a surplus in the trade balance with the United States, only Japan agreed to invest in infrastructure projects in the US to $ 200 billion. The rest to such initiatives were cool, rightly judging that the reasons to violate the balance of interests should be more weighty.

The situation is deteriorating, tax revenues have again begun to decline. In June, receipts were 6.6%, less than a year earlier, and this is with growing costs, and what will happen when the Fed rate reaches a target of 3%? The budget deficit in the fiscal year 2019 will exceed 1 trillion, and China and the European Union do not intend to yield to the growing military pressure.

China is determined and, in addition to the devaluation of the yuan, it can start implementing a program to reduce exports for US dollars, which will inevitably lead to a reduction in its share in the purchase of US bonds, even without special sales, which in turn will increase the yield of bonds and bring the recession nearer. These and some other factors come to the forefront of risk assessment, which ultimately leads to a decrease in demand for the dollar.

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to trade in the range before the ECB meeting on Thursday, the breakout of resistance 1.1790 looks more likely and the attempt to gain a foothold above 1.1850 by the end of the week. This conclusion is due to the expectations of the appearance of aggressive elements in Draghi's speech at the final press conference.

The currency pair GBP / USD also has no direction, trading by the end of the week is likely to be concentrated in the range of 1.3090 / 3230.

The currency pair USD / JPY before the threat of further decline, as the market is waiting for hawkish news from the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. Markets are waiting for practical actions to adjust the yield curve, which may result in both growths in yields of bonds, and in strengthening the yen. USD / JPY by the end of the week may fall below 110.75.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 26, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential bearish flag in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $8.023, 7.865 and at the price of $7.615.

Support/Resistance

$8.270 – Intraday resistance

$8.023– Intraday support

$8.023 – Objective target 1

$7.865 – Objective target 2

$7.615 – Objective target 3

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 26, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears. That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed a further decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800. As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry. A quick decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum. On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market.Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart. The bulls failed to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820 until bullish breakout occurred yesterday. The current bullish fixation above 0.6820 should be maintained in order to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980.Trade Recommendations:The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

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Analysis of Gold for July 26, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,226.53. According to the M30 time frame, I found a successful breakout of the support at the price of $1,227.00. I also found a confirmed hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of support trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,222.93 and at the price of $1,218.22.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,237.15

R2: $1,241.27

R3: $1,248.25

Support levels:

S1: $1,226.04

S2: $1,219.07

S3: $1,214.95

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 26, 2018

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Daily OutlookIn April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range. Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990. This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018. On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations. On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650. Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where price action should be watched cautiously. That's why the EUR/USD pair remains trapped below the price level of 1.1750 until a bullish breakout occurs. Conservative traders should wait for a bullish breakout above 1.1750 as this will liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1850 (the upper limit of the depicted supply zone).

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EUR / USD. 26 July. Trading system "Regression channels". Donald Trump and Jean Claude Juncker agreed

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

Senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

–°CI: 113.5967

The EUR / USD currency pair showed an upward movement on July 25. The main growth of the currency pair fell in the second half of the day. , as it was at this time that it became known that the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the US leader Donald Trump agreed to gradually reduce the customs pressure and step-by-step to cancel trade duties. First of all, this is the good of the EU and the euro, since it was the EU economy that would have been hit harder by the trade war. If the duties are really reduced to their complete cancellation, this will be good for both the US economy and the EU economy. At the same time, we draw attention to the fact that around. Therefore, from a technical point of view, it is very likely that a third downturn and return to the moving middle line. Moreover, the results of the ECB meeting will be announced today and Mario Draghi could be disappointed the markets. If his rhetoric today is "soft" and cautious, it can put pressure on the euro and force traders to return to euro sales.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.1719

S2 = 1.1658

S3 - 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1780

R2 - 1.1841

R3 = 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair rebounded from the moving average and started a new round of upward movement. Both of yesterday's goals have already been worked out. If the bulls manage to push the level of 1.1745, the target for the new long positions will be Murray's level of "5/8" at 1.1780.

It is recommended to open a sell order in case the price is fixed below the moving average. In this case, the initiative for the instrument will again be taken over by bears for a while, and the target for the downward movement will be the level of 1.1658.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 26, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the levels of 0.6807/0.6840. The pair has dropped from the level of 0.6807 to trade around the 0.6824 level. This level of 0.6807 coincides with the minor resistance today. Today, the first resistance levels are seen at 0.6807/0.8640 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6840, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 25, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3212. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I found the successful rejection of the upper band (Keltner channel), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3075.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1763

R2: 1.1788

R3: 1.1837

Support levels:

S1: 1.1689

S2: 1.1640

S3: 1.1615

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 26, 2018

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The USD/CHF pair is still trading above the pivot point of the price 0.9857 since three days. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci and 61.8%). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0050.

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Trading plan for July 26, 2013

Yesterday's meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker was the reason for a slight weakening of the dollar. The fact is that after it the media reported that the US president and the head of the European Commission were able to agree on reducing the tension on the issue of trade relations. Allegedly, they were able to agree on mutual lowering of customs duties, as well as on increasing exports from the US to Europe. In particular, it was a question of purchases of American liquefied gas. However, the growth of the single European currency, and in the wake of it and the pound was rather restrained, as no specific statements were forthcoming, and the indicated agreements are more likely to be more beneficial to the US than to Europe. So it's too early to draw any conclusions. At least until the relevant agreements and decrees are signed.

If you look at the statistics, the dollar should have been cheaper yesterday, it just happened with a delay, in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker. Although the growth rate of consumer lending in Europe remained unchanged, sales of new homes in the US fell by 5.3% with a forecast of a decline by 2.8%. Another negative factor for the dollar and positive for the pound were data on mortgage lending in the UK, as the number of approved mortgages increased from 39,528 to 40,541.

It is expected that the total number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US will decrease by 13 thousand. And if the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should increase by 8 thousand, the number of repeated applications can be reduced by 21 thousand. Also, orders for durable goods grew by 3.0%. But none of this is of interest to anyone, since ECB's policy on monetary policy will be held today, after which a press conference with Mario Draghi is scheduled. Given the rumors that leaked in the media about the agreements between the US and Europe, the ECB head will wait for statements that the risks of a trade war are not significant, and this will not affect the plans of curtailing the quantitative easing program. In other words, Mario Draghi must cut down where under no circumstances after December they will not renew this program. This is the only thing that can contribute to the growth of the single European currency, which will drag the pound behind it. However, the probability of this is extremely small, since Mario Draghi has the ability to say a lot about anything. Any other of his statements, other than mentioned above, it will inevitably lead to a strengthening of the dollar.

The EUR/USD currency pair has once again returned to the range of the 1.1720 / 1.1750 where it felt a periodical resistance. Probably assume that due to the information background, the price will return back to the limits of 1.1650 level.

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The GBP/USD currency pair, having reached the periodic level of 1.3200, formed a deceleration in the form of two-digit candles. It is possible to assume that in the case of working off the level and loss of bullish interest, the price will again return to the limits of the value of 1.3150, where previously stagnation has been formed.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for July 26, 2018

USD/CHF is currently quite volatile and corrective after being rejected off the 1.0050 area with an impulsive bearish momentum and daily close. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports from the US, certain volatility is to hit this pair today.

Today, US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase to 3.0% from the previous value of -0.4%, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase to 215k from the previous figure of 207k, Goods Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -67.0B from the previous figure of -64.8B, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories are expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%.

On the other hand, this week the economic calendar lacks macroeconomic reports or events in Switzerland to support CHF gains. Next week, KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales, and SECO Consumer Climate report are going to be published which are expected to inject certain volatility and may play an important part for the upcoming CHF gains over USD in the process.

At present, ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports, USD has been trading amid bearish pressure. However, the long-term trend is still bullish and expected to push the price higher in the medium term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is residing below 1.0050 area and below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates that the bears are still in control and expected to push the price lower towards 0.98 support area before pushing higher with a target towards 1.0050 in the future. As the price remains above 0.98 area with a daily close, despite any impulsive bearish momentum the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 0.9800

RESISTANCE: 1.0050

BIAS: LONG-TERM BULLISH but SHORT-TERM BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 26, 2018

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Technical outlook:

There is a slight change in the outlook here that was presented two days ago. The EUR/USD pair might be trading in a consolidating triangle for wave (4) of the larger degree discussed yesterday. Till the time prices stay below 1.1780 levels, the above count shall remain valid. Any push above 1.1780 levels would delay the process of dropping lower from here; rather it would look to drop from 1.1850 levels then. A high probable trade setup from here could be on the south side with potential risk around 1.1780 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1750 levels, while interim support is at 1.1528 levels respectively. Any break below 1.1650 levels would instill more confidence on the bearish side.

Trading plan:

Exit longs taken yesterday. Remain short from here with stop loss above 1.1780 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for ECB rate decision at 07:45 AM EST followed by President Draghi's press conference at 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for July 26, 2018

USD/CAD has been impulsive with the bearish gains recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.30 support area. The positive economic reports of CAD published recently helped the currency to gain momentum by countering USD in an impulsive manner but the trend has not been established yet.

Recently CAD CPI Report was published with an unchanged value of 0.1% as expected and Core Retail Sales showed a significant increase to 1.4% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.6%. The positive economic reports had a significant impact on the growth of the CAD gains which is still being observed in the market. This week there was no CAD economic reports or events to impact or support the gains but the sustainability of the bearish pressure does indicate the strength of CAD against USD in the process.

On the USD side, today Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders is expected to increase to 3.0% from the previous value of -0.4%, Unemployment Claims is expected to increase to 215k from the previous figure of 207k, Goods Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -67.0B from the previous figure of -64.8B and Prelim Wholesale Inventories is expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%.

As of the current scenario, USD economic reports to be published are quite mixed with the forecast which might lead to certain volatility in the pair leading to certain gain over CAD ahead of the tomorrow's Advance GDP report. Though CAD is still quite ahead with the recent gains as the USD comes up with better economic reports, a certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains which lead the price towards the support area of 1.30 area from where a certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair which may lead the price towards 1.32 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.30 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Overview of EUR/USD as of July 26, 2018

EUR / USD

On Wednesday, the euro continued to consolidate throughout the day until late in the evening, until the publication of a message about the intention of the US Senate to pass a law on bipartisan approval of the duties introduction on cars, which binds Trump hands in the trade war. Also, sales data of new homes in the US turned out to be worse than the forecast, as the June figure came at 631 thousand against expectations of 669 thousand and 666 thousand in May (revised from 689 thousand). As a result, the euro grew by 44 points.

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Technically, the situation developed further. On a daily scale, the price was fixed above the red balance line, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the positive zone. But today, the ECB promulgates a plan on monetary policy and will make a press conference with Mario Draghi. It is expected that the ECB, in a difficult situation with the US, will wait until important decisions are made. The investors were disappointed and the price can easily overcome technical growth signals and decrease to the first support of the trend line (1.1616), after which the technical scenario of decline to 1.1508 will occur.

In the case of positive signals from the ECB, the euro will initially need to overcome the consolidation zone of the first half of June 1.1750 / 90 and further growth in the range of 1.1840 / 60 is possible.

The main scenario is the option to decline in the euro on the neutrality of the European Central Bank. In this case, investors can fully play a positive role from new orders for US durable goods in June and expected to grow by 3.0%. The volume of basic orders (Core Durable Goods) is expected to increase by 0.5%.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 26, 2018

The market in EUR/USD is a quiet one for the last couple of sessions as price remains trapped inside the triangle pattern. The market has held this stance because most traders wait for the ECB meeting today and the press conference by ECB president Mario Draghi.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

Blue lines - RSI triangle pattern

The EUR/USD is trading right below the upper triangle boundary resistance right now. Short-term traders could try a short at current levels as the price is giving a great risk-reward if prices fall after the ECB press conference. If not, the stop level is very close. Be careful today for fake breakouts. The press conference is very important and keeps in mind the 1.1750-1.1760 and 1.16 price levels. The safest strategy is to wait until after the press conference to decide to go long or short this pair.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin For July 26, 2018

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If we look at the 4-hour chart on Bitcoin, we can see clearly that Bitcoin is now trading with a bullish bias. This conclusion is based on the price move above the 21-period moving average with a slope pointing upwards. We believe the bias on Bitcoin remains bullish for the next few days at least until Monday on July 30, 2018 as long as #BTC does not break out and closes below 7,254.76.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for July 26, 2018

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On the 4-hour chart on Ethereum, we see a convergence between the stochastic oscilator and the price. The price of this crypto currency is moving orderly inside the upward sloping channel and above the 21-period Moving Average (with the upward slope too). On the grounds of this fact, Ethereum is set to trade with the bullish bias at least until Monday July 30, 2018

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 26, 2018

The Gold price remains inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. The price is right below critical wedge resistance at $1,230-35 area. Only a break above this level will give us a bullish sign that price could reach next resistance level of $1,245-50.

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Black lines - wedge pattern

Red line - bullish divergence

Blue line - RSI resistance

The Gold price has short-term support at $1,222 and next at $1,217. However, if $1,222 is broken we will most probably see a move towards $1,200. If resistance at $1,235 is broken we should expect Gold to rally towards $1,245 and higher. A break out above the wedge pattern has many chances of bringing Gold back towards $1,300.

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Trading plan for 26/07/2018

Today the USD is weaker than the major currencies except for AUD, although the changes are not big on the holiday market. Investors are still analyzing the Trump-Juncker agreement from yesterday. There is also no speculation before the next week's meeting of the BoJ. Proof of the fact that optimism does not break through to the surface is the inclusion of indices.

EUR / USD once again came under 1.1750, as the market positively accepted the results of the Trump-Juncker meeting. The head of the EC came to Washington with a list of concessions: increasing LNG and soy imports, lowering duties on industrial products and loosening regulations on medical products.

On Thursday the 26th of July, the main event of the day is the ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Although all traders are waiting for it, analysts do not expect any revelations. Many experts believe that this will be the least important meeting of the ECB for years. Still, it is worth observing them and maybe we will know some new important information. Besides the ECB event, there are some important data to be released from the US: Durable Goods Orders, Goods Trade balance, Wholesale Inventories and Unemployment Claims data. No speeches scheduled for today.

USD/JPY analysis for 26/07/2018:

The pair trades steadily but remains at under 111 and closer to 110.60, where the price felt after yesterday after reports that Bank of Japan is planning changes in its asset purchase program at its nearest meeting - wants to buy more shares in ETFs based on Topix than Nikkei to reduce the pressure on the valuation of some companies. Lower USD / JPY weighs on Nikkei225, that is currently losing around -0.1%. The next technical support is seen at the110.34 - 110.26 zone, but the price starts to diverge from the momentum already. The market conditions remain oversold at this time frame, so a short-term pull-back is being expected soon. The key intraday level to the upside is seen at 110.95.

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EUR/GBP Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

EUR/GBP is testing its support at 0.8881 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where we expect the price to rise to its resistance at 0.8955 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its support at 3.5% where a corresponding rise could occur.

EUR/GBP is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 0.8881. Stop loss at 0.8837. Take profit at 0.8955.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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EUR/USD Approaching Its Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.1743 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fiboancci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where the price could reverse off and move towards its support at 1.1661 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell entry 1.1743. Stop loss at 1.1789. Take profit at 1.1661.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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Global macro overview for 26/07/2018

On the yesterday's afternoon, the global investors got to know the reports of the American Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding crude oil inventories. After an increase in inventories by 5.836 million barrels last week, this time the consensus assumed a decline of 2.600 million barrels. The final reading, however, indicates a much larger drop in stocks of black gold.

The EIA report shows that after last week's increase by 5.836 million barrels in the week ending July 20, crude oil inventories fell by as much as 6.147 million barrels, which turned out to be a much better result than forecasts and the previous publication. Similarly with gasoline inventories, which also fell, but by 2.328 million barrels, despite lower downward forecasts (-0.713 million) and the previous reading of -3,165 million barrels.

A drop in crude oil stocks and/or refinery products means a drop in the supply of this raw material, which, according to the basic principle of the economy, should lead to increases in the valuation of black gold on the market.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. Information about the drop in inventories led to the strengthening of oil prices, which was at new highs this week. Currently, the price tests the yesterday's highs, which are around $ 69.54. Breaking this resistance would open the way for a further rally towards $ 71.08. The positive, but not that strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook, nevertheless, for bulls to take over the control of the market, the price would have to break through the level of $ 72.13 first and head towards the swing highs at the level of $ 75.30.

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Global macro overview for 26/07/2018

A meeting of the ECB should not bring a revelation, as last month's decisions have somehow set the strategy by the end of the year. So far, the incoming data has not changed the fundamental image too much, so the language of the message should be similar to that from June. Mario Draghi will certainly be asked to clarify the date of the first hike (no change "at least until summer 2019"?), but do not assume that specific declarations will be made. The EUR growth potential should remain unblocked with the risk of short-term weakness if Draghi emphasizes concerns about risk factors (China, trade wars, macro imbalances).

Last June, President Draghi announced that "we anticipate that after September 2018 (...) we will reduce the monthly net purchase rate of assets to EUR 15 billion by December 2018, and after that date, we will stop buying". Such a clear sketch of the strategy by the end of the year implies that this week we will not receive new information.

In relation to next year, forward guidance has changed and from now on the ECB assumes that interest rates will remain at the current level "at least until summer 2019", but also until there will be a permanent inflation trend towards the 2.0% target. The date of the increase has been deliberately determined imprecisely to preserve as much flexibility as possible in communicating strategies in the future, but at the same time allowing hawkish expectations to be blocked at least until the end of the first half of the next year. Nevertheless, as we know from ECB unofficial leakages from the ECB, some members of the Governing Council are dissatisfied with the fact that the unclear message is read by the market as a zero chance for a hike before the meeting scheduled for October 24, 2019, while they allow the earlier the date even on July 25, 2019. This may be the main topic of President Draghi's press conference, although we doubt that the ECB president would be willing to exclude anything. It is in the interest of Draghi and the institution he is managing to consolidate the newly announced strategy, to gain credibility, especially in the aspect of the lack of changes in politics in the near future.

The European Central Bank will publish its decision and communication on Thursday, July 26 at 13:45. The market consensus assumes that monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged (reference rate: 0 percent, deposit rate: -0.40 percent, QE: EUR 30 billion / month to September, EUR 15 billion / month until December and termination of the program from 2019 .). At 12:30 pm GMT a press conference of ECB President Draghi is scheduled.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. From the EUR perspective, the consolidation of the June message should primarily lead to a reduction of EUR volatility, but without offering a fraction of hope for earlier interest rate movements the potential for clear traffic is limited at least until better macro data begins to draw a more optimistic outlook. If Draghi emphasizes concerns about China, trade wars, and macroeconomic imbalances, it will give the meeting a dovish tone that pushes EUR lower, although probably within the ranges of fluctuations in recent weeks, so EUR/USD should stay above 1.15.

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Bitcoin analysis for 26/07/2018

According to a study by the Bank of Canada (BoC), Canadian citizens in 2017 used Bitcoins mainly for investment purposes. The survey updates the results of the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) survey conducted by the Canadian Central Bank in the short run between December 12 and December 15, 2017, a few days before Bitcoin achieved a record result of $ 20,000 on December 17.

According to the results of the survey, in 2017 Canadians used the largest cryptocurrency mainly for investment purposes and not for transactions that in 2016 were given as the main reason for having Bitcoin. While 58 percent of respondents said the drive was "an investment", 12 percent of Canadian Bitcoin owners own BTC because "my friends own Bitcoin", 7 percent due to interest in new technologies, and 6 percent for buying goods and services from the internet. Of those who did not use it for transactions - those that have used Bitcoin "once or twice, but do not use it regularly", i.e. the vast majority - 77 percent - said they were holding Bitcoin as an investment. British Columbia residents report the highest levels of Bitcoin awareness, with an increase from 77 percent in 2016 to 93 percent in 2017. Second place among Canadian provinces in terms of BTC awareness belongs to the Canadian prairies and third to Ontario.

Earlier in June, bank governor of Bank of Canada, James Chapman, stated that cryptocurrencies pose no threat to the financial system, stating that the threat can only occur in the case of hyperinflation.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still in a rally mode as the local high was established at the level of $8,442. Since then a small corrective cycle was developed with a local low at the level of $8,006 which is just below the weekly pivot resistance at $8,164. The momentum remains strong and the target for bulls is still seen at the level of $8,555. The next immediate support is seen at the levels of $7,890 and $7,750.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 26, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Main Refinancing Rate, Spanish Unemployment Rate, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1794.

Strong Resistance:1.1787.

Original Resistance: 1.1776.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1765.

Target Inner Area: 1.1737.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1709.

Original Support: 1.1698.

Strong Support: 1.1687.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1680.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 26, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y and the US will release some Economic Data such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.39.

Resistance. 2: 111.17.

Resistance. 1: 110.95.

Support. 1: 110.69.

Support. 2: 110.48.

Support. 3: 110.25.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP / USD as of July 25, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound on Tuesday increased by 42 points to the news that Prime Minister Theresa May decided to independently negotiate Brexit and lead the delegation of negotiators from the British side. However, at the same time, May entrusted the department with the task of working out a plan in the event of a UK exit from the EU without a deal. And although the news looks fresh, it does not inspire optimism because May has more than once failed the key moments of the talks.

The balance of production orders in the UK from the CBI in July showed a deterioration but it is better than the forecast: 11 against 13 in June and against the forecast of 8. Today, the balance of retail sales in the UK from the CBI for July is a forecast of 16 versus 32 months earlier. In the US, sales of new homes for June may also show a deterioration with a forecast of 669 thousand against 689 thousand in May.

As a result of yesterday's events, the price tested the resistance of the trend line for the second time on a four-hour chart.

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In case of further growth, the same indicator line on the daily chart at 1.3188 is the stronger resistance.

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The medium-term trend remains descending. The closest goal in this direction is supporting the trend line of the price channel 1.2796.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 26, 2018

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The ongoing correction in red wave ii keeps pushing lower, but it must not break below the start of red wave i at 1.7116 as a break below here, will confirm that black wave ii still is in motion and is headed for support at 1.7066.

If, however, the low of red wave i at 1.7116 stays untouched, as we expected, for a break above the channel resistance near 1.7199, that will call for red wave iii towards 1.7510 on the way towards the first long-term target at 1.8381.

R3: 1.7305

R2: 1.7268

R1: 1.7199

Pivot: 1.7184

S1: 1.7165

S2: 1.7130

S3: 1.7116

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above the channel-resistance at 1.7199 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 26, 2018

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Short-term important resistance at 130.44 continues to cap the upside, which has resulted in a spike lower to 129.37. This likely marks the low for red wave ii/. The decline to 129.37, means that the ongoing correction from 131.99 has moved into the range of red wave i. Therefore this decline cannot be red wave iv but has to be a correction of a lower degree.

To confirm the completion of this red wave ii/ correction, we still need a break above short-term important resistance at 130.44. A break above here will call for a rally to 133.60 on the way higher to 135.74, which marks the S/H/S bottoms target.

R3: 130.76

R2: 130.44

R1: 130.28

Pivot: 129.90

S1: 129.71

S2: 129.48

S3: 129.37

Trading recommendation:

We will buy a break above 130.44 and place our stop 10 pips below the most recent low. If this low is 129.37, that would mean a stop at 129.27.

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Global macro overview for 25/07/2018

The Central Bank of Turkey contrary to popular belief of market participants did not raise interest rates by 100 bp. The increase was fully discounted, so its lack was a huge shock. The justification was the slowdown in economic growth, the already high-interest rate (17.75%) and the conviction that fiscal policy will provide support for the economy may support the maintenance of the status quo. Unfortunately, the central bank's short-sightedness is unpredictable, what could be the consequences of sending false signals to the market or not reacting to burning economic problems (capital flight, depreciation of the lira and high inflation connected with it: 15.4%). Not to mention how passivity is fueled by speculation about the loss of independence by the central bank in the face of recent system changes and the introduction of the presidential system. The lira exchange rate broke down (-3 percent), and the fleeing capital had to look somewhere for parking somewhere. Nevertheless, I still think that the asymmetry of risks is more threatening to the lira than it creates an opportunity, especially that the theme of trade wars remains alive.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has been trying to rally towards the recent swing high at the level of 4.97, but the bulls failed to break through that level and manage only to make a local high at the level of 4.9380. Currently, the price is approaching the technical support at the level of 4.7777, but the uptrend still continues. The key support level is seen at 4.4458 and only a sustained breakout below this level would change the mid-term outlook from bullish to bearish.

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Global macro overview for 25/07/2018

Wall Street from the beginning was doomed to an increase in indexes and only tweets from Donald Trump could change this and probably changed a bit. Even before the start of the session in the US, the European indexes grew strongly, which at the beginning of the American session could also help some bulls.

In the US, as in Europe, preliminary PMI indices for industrial sectors and services were published. The global investors learned that the index for the industry was 55.5 points. (55.4 points expected) and 56.2 points for services. (expected 56.5 points). The property price index published by FHFA in May increased by 0.2% m / m (expected 0.4%).

On Wall Street, the results of the companies (3M, Lockheed Martin, United Technologies, Verizon, and after the AT&T and Texas Instruments) were theoretically to have the greatest impact on the behavior of the markets. Already after Monday's session, good results of Google helped the bull camp. Similarly, the good result was presented by 3M and Verizon and only the price of Lockheed Martin shares did not grow. The indexes started the day with almost one percent jumps, and then they were losing consistently, which brought the NASDAQ to the cons for two hours before the end of the session, and the SP500 remained just above the neutral level.

You can not really see what the market could have cooled down. It looked like a typical profit-taking, but it might have been hurt by Trump's tweet again. On the day before the talk with Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European Commission, the president wrote that tariffs are the "greatest" thing, and those who stretched the US finally want to negotiate. Not a pretty good beginning to start the negotiations.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the breakout above the level of 280.62, the market might be heading towards the unfilled gap located between the levels of 283.38 - 284.44. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market conditions are now overbought in the current time frame. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 281.10.

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Review of the foreign exchange market from July 25, 2013

Yesterday was clearly not the favorable for the dollar, although initially everything developed as expected. Presumably, the preliminary data on the business activity index in Europe came out worse. So, the business activity index in the service sector fell from 55.2 to 54.4, although the business activity index in the manufacturing sector increased from 54.9 to 55.1. But the business activity index in the service sector has a much greater weight, as the composite index of business activity fell from 54.9 to 54.3. Also, the CBI data on the UK industrial volume orders turned out to be better than forecasts, but still showed a decrease in the indicator from 13 to 11. So, it's not surprising that the dollar continued to strengthen in the first half of the day. But things changed later in the evening, when the preliminary data on business activity indices turned to the US. It was assumed that the indices should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the US business activity index in the manufacturing sector showed an increase from 55.4 to 55.5, but market participants don't have time to rejoice such growth, as it turned out that the business activity index in the service sector fell from 56.5 to 56.2. In the American economic structure, the service sector has even more weight than the European one, so the decline in the business activity index in the service sector led to a decrease in the composite index of business activity from 56.2 to 55.9. This was the reason for the reversal of the dollar.

This trend may continue until today and is expected to accelerate the growth rate of EU consumer lending from 2.9% to 3.0%. In fact, the pound's growth yesterday was more active than the single European currency, and is unlikely to support its neighbor because it is forecasted to reduce Britain's approved mortgages from 39,244 to 39,100. Also, the CBI report on retail trade is predicted to show an increase of 15% against 32% in the previous month. But this concerns were only on the first half of the day, as the dollar will be under pressure again when the US statistics come out, and the volume of housing in the US primary market is projected to decrease by 2.8%.

We do not rule out the factors about Donald Trump, as seen in Twitter post suggesting that Europe should bury the ax of the trade war. However, his proposal states that Europe should give up, and market response is difficult to determine. Moreover, the very proposal did not have a significant impact on the state of affairs in the market. The essence of Donald Trump's proposal is that the US and Europe simultaneously remove all mutual duties, barriers and subsidies. And, the Europe cannot accept such proposal because of the subsidies. The fact is that European producers are protected from imports precisely by subsidies, and their cancellation will lead European producers to forcibly raise prices instantly, and they will not be able to compete with American and Chinese producers who saw no subsidies.

If we exclude the factor of Europe's response to the Donald Trump's proposal, then the single European currency will be able to grow to 1.1725. If Europe refuses to negotiate, which is exactly what must do, hence, the euro will fall to 1.1650.

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The pound has a simpler picture because the UK formally does not take part in all these trade wars with the US, so that it will be able to grow to 1.3200. But do not forget that the single European currency can affect the pound through the dollar index, and with an adverse development of events, the pound may fall to 1.3125.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Control zones EURGBP 25.07.18

The third day is the formation of a downward correction model, the purpose of which is NCZ 1/2 0.8869-0.8861. The test of the specified zone will determine the priority for the second half of the week.

The upward movement remains a medium-term impulse, as local drops do not exceed the size of the control zones of the younger period. The current goal of the reduction is the main support of the NCC 1/2 0.8869-0.8861. Purchases from the limits of this zone allow you to get a deal with a good prospect, since the size of the stop-loss will be several times less than the potential profit, which is located within the NKZ 1/2 0.8986-0.8978. The risk-to-profit ratio is estimated as one to four.

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It is important to note that the support zone of NKZ 1/2 coincides with an important level formed in early July, which was the resistance for more than two weeks. This indicates its strength and increases the probability of finding large limit orders below 0.8869.

To break the upward momentum and cancel purchases, the closing of the day's US session must be below the level of 0.8861. This will allow us to consider the fall, the goal of which will be the weekly short-term balance of 0.8781-0.8764. Sales transactions can be opened not earlier than Thursday's European session, as there are no conditions for sale yet and the upward movement remains a priority.

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Daytime CP is the daytime control area. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the last year.

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The US government and China are not sitting idle

The European currency and the British pound are trading in a narrow side channel paired with the US dollar, ignoring the fundamental statistics coming to the market. Apparently, this trend will likely continue until Thursday, when the results of the European Central Bank meeting will be known.

Data was released during the second half of the day on Tuesday, which showed that activity in the US service sector decreased as a result of a reduction in orders and rising prices, but remained at a fairly good level.

According to the IHS Markit report, the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the services sector in July this year fell to 56.2 points against 56.5 points in June. Economists had expected the index to be 56.2 points. Let me remind you that the mark above 50 points indicates an increase in activity.

The manufacturing index rose to 55.5 points in July, while economists had expected it to be 55 points. In general, the composite PMI index in July fell to 55.9 points against 56.2 points in June.

The slowdown was also observed in the production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. According to the report, the Fed-Richmond composite manufacturing index in July 2018 was 20 points against 21 points in June.

On Tuesday, it became known that the administration of the US President Trump plans to allocate about 12 billion dollars, which will be used to assist farmers to reduce fears associated with the trade conflict. However, the market completely ignored this news, which indicates the concentration of investors at Thursday's ECB meeting.

The Chinese authorities are also not sitting idle. As it became known, the State Council of the People's Republic of China announced new measures to support economic growth. These measures include tax holidays and special bonds for investment in infrastructure projects.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it is clamped in a rather narrow side channel with levels of 1.1660-1.1720. A large volume of trade is underway in the middle of the 1.1685 channel, which can become a starting point for either buyers of risky assets or sellers at the ECB meeting on Thursday.

The Australian dollar fell sharply against the US dollar after Wednesday's morning inflation data did not meet economists ' forecasts. According to the report, the consumer price index CPI of Australia in the 2nd quarter of this year increased by only 0.4%, while economists had expected it at 0.5%. Compared to the same period in 2017, the consumer price index in the second quarter increased by 2.1% against the forecast of 2.2%.

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The truncated average consumer price index of the RBA in the second quarter was 0.5%.

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