Only a clear deterioration of the situation in the US economy will weaken the dollar (we expect a further decline in the

The week ended under the sign of the strengthening of the trade war between the United States and China after the Chinese authorities decided to significantly reduce the exchange rate of its national currency against the US dollar.

Against this background, the desire of investors to buy risky assets – shares of companies, commodity-raw assets, fell sharply, and the US dollar was trading in different directions. It fell against the safe-haven currencies – the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, as well as the euro, which over the past ten years has also acquired the status of an antipode asset to the dollar both in cases of increased demand for risk and in situations where market participants move away from risky transactions. The price of gold also received support. But at the same time, commodity currencies fell, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Russian ruble.

Today, the activity in the markets may be significantly lower than usual, which can be explained, on the one hand, by the lack of important economic data for publication and expectations of some significant events, and on the other, by the height of the holiday season, when investors' activity traditionally falls.

This week, attention will undoubtedly be drawn to the published data on consumer inflation, retail sales, industrial production and the number of construction permits issued in the States. According to forecasts, inflation pressure is expected to increase in annual terms by 1.7% against 1.6%, and on a monthly basis for July, its increase by 0.3% against 0.1% a month earlier. But the annual value of the base inflation will have to maintain the growth rate of 2.1% and to decline in growth from 0.3% to 0.2% over the past month. It is also expected that the value of retail sales in July will fall from 0.4% to 0.3%, while the volume of industrial production, on the contrary, will add 0.1% against zero growth a month earlier, as well as an increase in the number of construction permits and the volume of construction of new houses.

In addition to the US statistics, intermediate GDP figures for the 2nd quarter in Germany and the eurozone will be interesting this week. It is expected to maintain the previous growth rates for both Germany and the euro area at 0.2% for the quarter and 1.1% for the year.

In general, observing the incoming data of economic statistics primarily from the United States, we can say that the Fed still faces a difficult task, which is the ambiguity of the incoming data. This will constrain the possibility of a more active reduction in interest rates, which is eagerly awaited by the markets, and only strong signals about the risks of the coming recession can force the US regulator to become more active. In this case, we can expect a full-scale change in the trend of the dollar and its global weakening.

Forecast of the day:

The USDJPY pair remains in a short-term downward trend on the wave of the uncertainty of the Fed's future monetary policy. If prices are held below $105.85 and will drop below the level of 105.25, it is necessary to sell a likely target of 104.70.

The pair GBPUSD slowed the decline and may roll back to 1.2090 or even higher to 1.2100, but most likely it will continue to fall on the Brexit factor and the deterioration of the British economy.

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Forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 12. The results of the first three weeks of Boris Johnson's work

EUR/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade between the correction levels of 61.8% (1.1224) and 76.4% (1.1180), alternately performing rebounds from each level. At the moment, the euro/dollar pair is growing in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8%. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. Since no economic reports were released on Friday, and the Monday news calendar is empty, the sideways trend can be maintained today. Traders of the currency market can safely stay inside the side channel indicated above, waiting for news. Unfortunately, in the last two or three weeks, the main drivers of the pair's movement were the Fed and ECB meetings and the expectations of the results of these meetings. Now, when there is still plenty of time before the next meeting of regulators and the market clearly understood that both organizations are set to mitigate monetary policy, there is a balance that can only be pulled out when new interesting news is received. Technically, to determine the readiness of traders in more active actions than now, it will be possible to close the quotes above the Fibo level of 61.8% or under 76.4%.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair performed the rebound from the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). I recommend buying the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1260, with the stop-loss order below the level of 1.1224, if the closing is performed above the level of 61.8%. I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1180, and with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1224, if the rebound from the correction level of 61.8% is executed.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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Several rebounds of the pair from the correction level of 127.2% (1.2180) worked in favor of the US currency, as a result of which the fall of the GBP/USD pair resumed in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1853). Today, August 12, a bullish divergence is brewing in the MACD indicator, which allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the English currency and the return of the pound/dollar pair to the correctional level of 127.2%. Today, we decided to focus on summarizing the results of the first three weeks of Boris Johnson's reign. First, the British pound fell by 4.5 cents against the US dollar. Secondly, it was not possible to resume negotiations with Brussels on Brexit terms. Thirdly, the preparation of the hard Brexit, an alternative to which is not visible now. Fourthly, the Parliament is opposed by all means to ensure that Johnson does not implement Brexit on his own and will confront the generally tough Brexit. Fifth, the opponents of hard Brexit, and hence the policy of Boris Johnson has become much more. Sixth, a political conspiracy is brewing against Johnson due to the prime minister furiously promoting Brexit "No Deal". Seventh, the Laborites began to openly oppose Johnson. Eighth, according to insider information, Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain is dissatisfied with the government, which for the past three years has been unable to withdraw the country from the EU. As a conclusion: in the first three weeks of Boris Johnson's work, it is difficult to find any positive moment for the UK. Accordingly, the fall of the pound sterling will continue, and Boris Johnson himself will openly fight with opponents of Brexit "No Deal" in Parliament.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

GBP/USD – 1H.

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a consolidation below the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.2057). Thus, the fall of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 323.6% (1.1883). The closing of the pair above the Fibo level of 261.8% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the English currency and expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% (1.2227).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1883, with the stop-loss order above the level of 261.8%. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2227 and with the stop-loss order below the level of 261.8%(hourly chart) if the closing is performed above the level of 1.2057.

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Sterling sentiment bleak, beware of short squeeze

Sentiment on the sterling continued to deteriorate on Friday following the shock GDP data from the UK which recorded a 0.2% decline for the second quarter.

The data increased fears over the prospects of the UK economy, especially with industrial production also remaining weak. There was also a further shift in futures markets with increased expectations of a Bank of England rate cut this year.

In response, the sterling dropped sharply with EUR/GBP at 9-year highs above 0.9300. Besides, GBP/USD slumped to 34-month lows below 1.2050.

Political uncertainty remains a key influence with ongoing fears that the UK is heading for a 'no-deal' Brexit at the end of October.

Sentiment will remain very fragile in the short term and sellers will look to take advantage of low trading volumes during the peak holiday season to push the currency even weaker.

The House of Commons will return from recess in early September and this will be a critical period for the UK outlook.

UK lawmakers, who oppose a 'no-deal Brexit', will continue their attempts to block any government's move towards 'no-deal' and potentially force a no-confidence defeat for the government. There will also be unofficial talks between the UK and EU officials with individual EU countries. Such talks are being held very uneasy over the threat of a 'no-deal' outcome. Markets have not priced in potential damage to the EU economy.

Uncertainty will remain very high and, although this is the holiday season, there will be intense political manoeuvring behind the scenes. It is important to note that public political rhetoric is likely to be notably different from reality as background negotiations continue. The UK establishment will also step up efforts to block a disruptive Brexit outcome.

The key feature will be very choppy sterling trading in the short term, especially amid the lack of liquidity.

CFTC data recorded a further increase in short, non-commercial sterling positions to near 103,000 contracts, the highest net short position since April 2017. This positioning will maintain the risk of a sharp squeeze on shorts, especially with a lack of trading volumes.

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Trading plan for EURUSD on 08/12/2019

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The euro is holding growth.

There is no strong news. The market is waiting for the continuation of Trump-China and Brexit stories without an agreement.

The euro is kept in a narrow range.

We keep purchases from 1.1165, but stop is at breakeven.

In the case of growth, purchase from 1.1250.

Sales from 1.1025.

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Control zones for Bitcoin on 08/12/19

At the end of last week, bitcoin fixed below the balance mark. This suggests the need to sell and fix part of the purchase. If the decline will take place within the average monthly move, the target will be $10,000 per bitcoin. This should be taken into account when opening short positions.

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While bitcoin is trading under the balance mark, it is not necessary to look for opportunities to buy until a significant medium-term support is achieved. Last week's minimum can become a point that will determine the priority for the next 5 trading days. If there is a consolidation below this minimum, the probability of a further fall will increase to 70%.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 12/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Computer analysts at Zscaler ThreatLabZ, a cybersecurity company, have discovered a new type of Trojan attacking cryptocurrency users.

In a blog post, the company reveals that it has identified a new remote access Trojan (RAT) that is able to take over administrative control of the target computer, gain access to browser history and search for activities related to cryptocurrencies, credit cards, companies, social media, among other.

Malware is called Saefko and is written in .NET, a software framework developed by Microsoft and used to create a wide range of applications.

"RATs are usually downloaded as a result of the user opening an attachment to an email or downloading an application or game that has been infected with it. Because RAT provides administrative control, an intruder can do anything on the target computer, such as monitoring user behavior by logging keystrokes, accessing confidential information, activating the system's webcam, taking screenshots, formatting disks, and more "- explains the post.

Zscaler recommends that individuals do not download or open files from untrusted sources and states that network administrators should block unused ports, disable unused services, and monitor outbound traffic.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $274.14

WR2 - $256.36

WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72

WS1 - $193.28

WS2 - $173.99

WS3 - $150.66

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 12/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Some analysts believe that the upcoming no-deal Brexit will drive Bitcoin's price to an unprecedented breakthrough and record highs in 2019. Some even predict that this can fundamentally change Bitcoin's place in the global economy.

Brexit is already causing market turmoil. The prospect of Brexit without an agreement has already resulted in a loss of pound sterling relative to other leading currencies. This tendency has been growing since the appointment of the hardened Brexiteer, Boris Johnson, as Prime Minister of Great Britain. Johnson promised that Britain would leave the European Union on October 31, 2019.

Leaving the EU without agreement will cause confusion and volatility in the two main fiat currencies, and will also cause an identity crisis in the global system, as unforeseen situations and vulnerabilities of the main global fiat currencies have been highlighted. Some say this will prevent capital from escaping to Bitcoin as a safe haven, causing prices to soar.

The concerns of the Confederation of British Industry that Brexit would be a trap of economic chaos without agreement mean that Bitcoin's position in the global economy can change fundamentally. In 2020, we expect an increasingly populist and politically unstable world to consolidate the status of a safe haven for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies more generally. And if central banks start increasing money printing again, arguments about cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, whose supply is limited, will be further strengthened.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range for some time now, consolidating the recent gains after the bounce from the level of $9,049. The local technical support located at the level of $11,027 has been tested during the consolidation cycle and the low of this test has been labeled as the low of the wave 2. It means the market is ready to continue the uptrend towards the new highs, but first, it will have to break out above the levels of $11,855, $12,008 and $12,269.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,583

WR2 - $12,879

WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389

WS1 - $10,550

WS2 - $9,816

WS3 - $9,007

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.

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Overview of GBP/USD on August 12th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Queen Elizabeth II was disappointed in modern

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -187.1588

UK macroeconomic data released on Friday turned out to be absolutely disappointing. Thus, the new fall of the British pound does not cause any questions and surprises. There has been no positive news regarding Brexit since Boris Johnson became the new prime minister. They have not been received before. Rumors have already begun to appear that Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain is dissatisfied with current politicians who, in her opinion, "cannot rule the country." We are talking, of course, about the last three years, when David Cameron first initiated a referendum, and later, Theresa May was unable to bring Brexit to an end. Now, Boris Johnson can still withdraw Britain from the EU, but with what blood? We have repeatedly written about the possible consequences for the United Kingdom of disordered "divorce" with the European Union. There is only one thing to be repeated now, in the context of the movement of the pound sterling on the Forex currency market, traders have no reason to buy this currency, there was and is unlikely to appear if the next three months pass in preparation for the "hard" Brexit. The next important macroeconomic report from the UK will be a report on wages, which will be released tomorrow, August 13. We recall that prior to the fastening of the bulls above the moving average line, we are not even talking about buying pounds.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2024

S2 – 1.1963

S3 – 1.1902

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2085

R2 – 1.2146

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement and continues it at this moment, as evidenced by the Heiken Ashi indicator. Thus, traders are advised to continue selling the pound with the targets of 1.2024 and 1.1963 until the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. Buying the pound/dollar pair is impractical.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 12/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken out of the narrow consolidation zone to the downside and made a local low at the level of 1.2014 at the time of writing. Bears have managed to push the price towards the key long-term technical support located at the level of 1.1988 and this level is very important. The bulls might defend the support, but if the level is clearly violated without a fight, then the price will extend the drop much lower, so there must be some bullish reaction on this level, otherwise, the damage will be even worse.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2303

WR2 - 1.2249

WR1 - 1.2110

Weekly Pivot - 1.2066

WS1 - 1.1921

WS2 - 1.1875

WS3 - 1.1728

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. Please keep an eye on the key technical support located at the level of 1.1988, some kind of bounce might be expected after this level is hit.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 12 - 2019

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GBP/JPY continues to move lower and the clear break below 127.93 has extended the decline closer to the 126.19 - 126.31 area and maybe even closer to 125.48 before a firm low is in place. The first strong indication of a bottom being in place is a break back above minor resistance at 128.32 while a break above resistance at 130.06 will confirm the low being in place and a new impulsive rally building.

For now look for a bottom to form in the 126.19 - 126.31 area for a possible new rally.

R3: 128.32

R2: 127.73

R1: 127.30

Pivot: 127.04

S1: 126.52

S2: 126.31

S3: 126.19

Trading recommendation

We will buy GBP at 126.40 with our stop at 126.00 or upon a break above 127.87

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 12 - 2019

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We continue to regard the decline from 117.88 as corrective in nature. This means a low for red wave ii is expected near 117.84 for a new impulsive rally well above the 117.88 peak. A break above minor resistance at 118.74 and more importantly a break above resistance at 119.16 confirms red wave ii is completed and red wave iii is developing towards at least 121.45. It is likely to move even higher towards 122.31.

Only an unexpected break below 117.67 will invalidate our bullish outlook.

R3: 119.16

R2: 118.74

R1: 118.41

Pivot: 118.13

S1: 117.87

S2: 117.67

S3: 117.31

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 118.30 was hit for a small loss. We will re-buy EUR at 117.95 or upon a break above 118.74 with our stop placed at 117.60.

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Overview of EUR/USD on August 12th. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The market is calm, the bears are preparing

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 51.6315

The new trading week starts as the previous one ended. Flat on the EUR/USD pair is maintained, and above the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1230, the bulls are unable to leave. Neither at the end of last week nor at the beginning of the current, any news and macroeconomic statistics were available to traders and are not expected. Thus, there is a high probability that there will be low volatility and lateral movement today. We will have to wait at least for tomorrow when the consumer price indices in Germany and the States will be published. However, the question is more important now: what is the strength of the bulls, will it be enough to continue strengthening the euro, against the background of almost zero fundamental backgrounds? We believe that despite overcoming the moving average line, the downward trend on the euro/dollar pair remains. In favor of this, they immediately say 3 rebounds from the Murray level of "4/8", as well as the lack of an update of the level of 1.1283, from which the price previously bounced three times. Thus, to overcome the Murray level of "4/8" to buy a pair is impractical. And in the case of consolidation of the euro/dollar pair below the moving average, the trend will again fall into the hands of bears. Tomorrow's publication of inflation in the US may support the demand for the dollar, as it is expected to accelerate to 1.7% y/y.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The foreign exchange market is preparing for new sales of the euro and purchases of the dollar, but you need to wait for the overcoming of the moving. The target for short positions – 1.1108. It is recommended to buy the pair if the bulls still manage to gain a foothold above the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.1230, with a target of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 12, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair continues to drift sideways since last few days after printing highs around 1.1240 levels. It is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal either from current price action around 1.1200/05 levels or from 1.1250/60 levels respectively. It remains to be seen if bears break lower from here. The single currency pair has been facing quite a few convergences to find strong resistance, viz: trend line resistance, past support turned resistance zone around the 1.1200/10 mark and a 50% retracement of the previous drop from 1.1412 levels. A break below 1.1180 levels would confirm that EURUSD has resumed its bearish journey towards 1.0900/30 levels. Please note that resistance is at 1.1265 levels, followed by 1.1412 levels respectively. Only a break above 1.1412 levels would be a threat to the current bearish outlook.

Trading plan:

Remain short from here and add further if prices reach 1.1250/60, stop above 1.1285, target is 1.0930.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, August 12,2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released. Nevertheless, the US will publish such economic data as the Federal Budget Balance.So, amid the reports ,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1260. Strong Resistance:1.1254. Original Resistance: 1.1244. Inner Sell Area: 1.1234.Target Inner Area: 1.1210. Inner Buy Area: 1.1187. Original Support: 1.1177. Strong Support: 1.1167. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1161. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, August 12,2019

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On Monday, Japan will not release any economic data while the US will publish such economic data as Federal Budget Balance. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:106.00.Resistance. 2:105.80. Resistance. 1:105.59. Support. 1:105.33.Support. 2:105.13. Support. 3:104.92. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 12/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.1027 last week and the move up is being continued. The Bullish Pennant price pattern is clearly visible on the H4 timeframe chart and the price is still developing it. This is the trend continuation pattern, so if the price will break out to the upside, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1250 and then 1.1345. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1167 and it can not be violated until the breakout occurs.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1325

WR1 - 1.1264

Weekly Pivot - 1.1187

WS1 - 1.1117

WS2 - 1.1041

WS3 - 1.0978

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is completed or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Control zones for USDJPY on 08/12/19

The daily trading plan does not involve searching for an entry to sell, as the pair is trading outside the monthly short-term. Despite the strength of the momentum, sales from the current levels are no longer profitable. In 90% of cases, there will be a return to the monthly CZ of August, which will make it possible to earn on purchases.

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An alternative model of decline has a low probability, however, such strong momentum, without visible support levels, may continue. For this reason, you should not enter a purchase without a formed pattern. The first pattern that can be considered today is a "false breakdown" of Friday's minimum. If the breakdown leads to the absorption of Friday's fall, then the entrance to the purchase will be justified.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for USDCHF on 08/12/19

When building daily trading plans, it is necessary to take into account that the pair has already overcome the monthly average move. The emergence of a large demand last week confirms the interest of major players to keep the rate within the formed accumulation zone.

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Now, it is necessary to concentrate on the test of the annual minimum formed in June. Reaching this level will allow you to search for a pattern of "false breakdown" to buy the instrument in order to return to the monthly short term. The probability of return is 90%.

The alternative model has a low probability and will be to consolidate below the monthly short-term. Work on the sale is extremely unprofitable, since the probability of making money does not exceed 10%. The most likely model will be a medium-term flat, where the first place will be the search for purchase prices from the lower border.

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Daily CZ - day control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 12, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro closed at the opening level of Thursday, the growth attempt was stopped at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (minimum of November 12, 2018). On the daily scale chart, the price is between the price channel line and the Fibonacci level of 100%. Fixing above one of these levels will determine a short-term movement for one or two days, and the rising movement has a limit to the level of 1.1250 – to a maximum on August 6 near the MACD line (blue indicator, which the price could not overcome with three attempts). The downward movement after the consolidation under the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155) developing a medium-term decrease in the short and intermediate target of 1.1074 (Fibonacci 123.6%), then the Fibonacci target will be worked out at 123.6% at a price of 1.1074.

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On Tuesday, the eurozone ZEW sentiment indices come out, forecasts for them are pessimistic: the indicator of sentiment in the business community of Germany for August is expected to fall from -34.5 to -27.8, the forecast for the eurozone is -21.7 against -20.3 months earlier.

As seen on the four-hour chart, the price continues to drift over the balance and MACD lines, the Marlin oscillator is tired of waiting and has changed into a downward trend. Tomorrow is likely to be the decisive day.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 12, 2019

GBP/USD

Investors did not wait patiently for several days on Friday for the British economy – they were even worse than the weak forecasts themselves. GDP for the 2nd quarter amounted to -0.2% against the forecast of 0.0%, industrial production for June decreased by 0.1%, the trade balance for June showed an improvement from -10.7 billion pounds to -7.0 billion, but the quarterly trade balance data showed a reduction in exports by 1.5% and a reduction in imports by 13.0%, which completely negates the formally positive figure for June. The British media immediately started talking about the "wandering ghost of the recession." The pound fell by 103 points, reaching the target level of 1.2032.

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The daily chart implies that fixing the price under the range of 1.1986-1.2032 opens up the prospect of reduction to 1.1763 – the Fibonacci level of 314.0% of the March 13-April 25 branch.

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As seen on the four-hour chart, the price decreases below the indicator lines of the balance and MACD, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator also quickly deepens into the zone of the falling trend. We are waiting for the development in this "bearish" channel, but later, on Tuesday, as the price needs to settle on technical support, and tomorrow in the UK, there are data on employment for June (the forecast of growth in the number of unemployed from 38.0 tho

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 12, 2019

AUD/USD

On Friday, the Australian dollar managed to gain a foothold over the correction level of 23.6%, which creates the probability of continuing growth to the next correction level of 38.2% at the price of 0.6832. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator increases. Fixing above this level can develop a deeper correction of the "Australian" to 50.0%, in the area of 0.6892, to which the two lines of price channels converge.

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As seen on the four-hour chart, the price fixed above the indicator lines of balance (red) and MACD (blue), the Marlin oscillator is also in the growth zone. Formally, of course, the price growth with the nearest target of 0.6832, but Marlin oscillator did not form any reversal formations at the time, they are not even on a half-hour scale, respectively, the current growth is short-term, and the consolidation of the price under the MACD line (0.6770) can return the Australian dollar to a falling channel. Downward targets: 0.6737 – the red line of the price channel, 0.6684 – the blue line of the price channel with a Fibonacci level of 0.0% (minimum August 7).

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Control zones for USDCAD on 08/12/19

The priority direction of trade at the beginning of this week is a decline. This was made possible by fixing the price below the WCZ 1/2 1.3256-1.3247 last Thursday. The target for the downward movement is the weekly CZ 1.3168-1.3151. The test of this zone will close the first part of sales.

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The first resistance will be the WCZ 1/4 1.3242-1.3239. When testing this zone, it is necessary to consider the pattern "false breakdown". In the event of a takeover, entry into the transaction will give the necessary risk to profit ratio.

The alternative model will be developed if the pair continues to grow to the WCZ 1/2 1.3291-1.3283. This zone is the determining resistance. As long as the price is below it, the downward movement will remain an impulse. Within this zone, the best selling prices are located, however, it may take more than two days to reach it.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of August 12

Hello, dear colleagues.

For the Euro/Dollar pair, the price is in the correction zone from the medium-term upward structure on August 1 and the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1234. For the Pound/Dollar pair, the continuation of the downward structure from July 31 is expected after the breakdown of 1.2014. For the Dollar/Franc pair, we follow the medium-term downward structure from August 1 and the subsequent downward movement is expected after the passage of the range of 0.9706 – 0.9682. For the Dollar/Yen pair, we expect the continuation of the movement downwards after the breakdown of 105.14. For the Euro/Yen pair, we follow the development of the downward structure from August 6. For the Pound/Yen pair, we follow the downward structure of July 31 and the continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 126.48.

Forecast for August 12:

Analytical review of the currency pairs in H1 scale:

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For the Euro/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1284, 1.1259, 1.1234, 1.1162, 1.1145 and 1.1120. The price is in the correction zone from the upward structure on August 1. The resumption of the upward trend is possible after the breakdown of 1.1234. In this case, the target is 1.1259. We consider the level of 1.1284 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1162 – 1.1145 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The target is 1.1120 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from August 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1258

Buy 1.1261 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1144 Take profit: 1.1122

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For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2142, 1.2099, 1.2069, 1.2014, 1.1952, 1.1908 and 1.1850. We follow the downward cycle of July 31. We expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.2014. In this case, the target is 1.1952 and in the area of 1.1952 – 1.1908 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. We consider the level of 1.1850 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2069 – 1.2099 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The target is 1.2142 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2069 Take profit: 1.2097

Buy: 1.2100 Take profit: 1.2140

Sell: 1.2012 Take profit: 1.1954

Sell: 1.1950 Take profit: 1.1910

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For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels in the H1 scale are: 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9797, 0.9768, 0.9706, 0.9682, 0.9641, 0.9604 and 0.9536. We follow the medium-term downward structure of August 1. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the price passage of the range of 0.9706 – 0.9682. In this case, the target is 0.9641 and in the range of 0.9641 – 0.9604 is the short-term downward trend and consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.9604 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The potential target is 0.9536.

The departure for correction is expected after the breakdown of 0.9768. The first target is 0.9797. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.9797 – 0.9816. The breakdown of the last value will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. The target is 0.9854.

The main trend is the downward structure from August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9797

Buy: 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9852

Sell: 0.9680 Take profit: 0.9641

Sell: 0.9638 Take profit: 0.9605

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For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels in the H1 scale are: 107.20, 106.45, 105.96, 105.14, 104.44, 104.00 and 103.01. We follow the downward structure from August 1. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 105.14. In this case, the target is 104.44 and in the area of 104.44 – 104.00 is the consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 103.01, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 104.00.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 105.96 – 106.45 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 107.20 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 105.96 Take profit: 106.43

Buy: 106.46 Take profit: 107.20

Sell: 105.13 Take profit: 104.46

Sell: 104.00 Take profit: 103.05

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For the Canadian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3444, 1.3393, 1.3354, 1.3329, 1.3280, 1.3212, 1.3175 and 1.3102. The price is in deep correction from the upward structure on July 31. The breakdown of the level of 1.3212 will lead to the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.3175 and near this level is the price consolidation. The resumption of the upward movement is possible after the breakdown of 1.3280. In this case, the first target is 1.3329 and in the area of 1.3329 – 1.3354 is the consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3355 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.3393.

The main trend – local upward structure from July 31, stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3280 Take profit: 1.3329

Buy: 1.3355 Take profit: 1.3392

Sell: 1.3212 Take profit: 1.3178

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Australian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6789, 0.6762 and 0.6733. We follow the development of the upward structure from August 7. At the moment, we expect the movement to the level of 0.6843 and in the area of 0.6843 – 0.6869 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 0.6902 and in the area of 0.6902 – 0.6922 is the consolidation of the price. We consider the level of 0.6967 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.6789 – 0.6762 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 0.6733 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of August 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6845 Take profit: 0.6867

Buy: 0.6870 Take profit: 0.6902

Sell: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6764

Sell: 0.6760 Take profit: 0.6735

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For the Euro/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.16, 118.77, 118.47, 117.90, 117.36 and 116.95. We follow the downward structure from August 6. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 117.90. The target is 117.36. The potential value for the downward structure is the level of 116.95, upon reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 118.47 – 118.77 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 119.16 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of August 6.

The main trend is the downward structure from August 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.48 Take profit: 118.75

Buy: 118.78 Take profit: 119.14

Sell: 117.88 Take profit: 117.37

Sell: 117.34 Take profit: 116.97

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For the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.44, 128.51, 127.85, 126.48, 125.57, 124.20 and 123.39. We follow the local downward structure from July 31. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 126.48 – 125.57 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 124.20. We consider the level of 123.39 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 127.85 – 128.51 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. The target is 129.44 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.85 Take profit: 128.50

Buy: 128.53 Take profit: 129.42

Sell: 126.45 Take profit: 125.58

Sell: 125.53 Take profit: 124.25

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