Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 16, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.1236 and rallied towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the previous wave down located at the level of 1.1342. If the rally will continue here, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1361 and then at 1.1419. The market is bouncing form the oversold conditions and the momentum has broken above its fifty level already, so the odds for another leg up are quite high. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.1419 will signal the up trend continuation.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1560

WR2 - 1.1485

WR1 - 1.1355

Weekly Pivot - 1.1283

WS1 - 1.1138

WS2 - 1.1066

WS3 - 1.0927

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336)

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 16, 2020. Recent Fed statements supported the markets. Coronavirus updates from around the

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The global economy is already emerging from the crisis, but the pandemic is still yet to be stopped.

According to data, citizens in the US, except for New York City which has already survived the pandemic, are still at a high risk due to the continued high infection rate in the country. New cases still range at 20 thousand per day, but with less than 500 deaths per day. This suggests that the quality of treatment may have improved.

In Brazil, the situation is still very bad, as the number of new cases is still more than 20 thousand per day.

India also faces the same problem with more than 10 thousand new cases of infection per day.

Looking at such data, it can be concluded that the pandemic is still at its peak in general.

Russia, meanwhile, has a similar situation with the US. The number of new infections does not fall below 8 thousand per day, while the number of people that have recovered is about 3 thousand per day. Nevertheless, the peak of the pandemic is still to be reached in Russia (except Moscow).

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On Monday, the US market showed a strong rebound upwards at about 1%. But taking into account the drop that occurred earlier, the indices rose at about 4% and higher.

The reason for the increase was the Fed's statements which said that it would buy corporate bonds to support the markets and the economy.

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EUR/USD - wait for a bullish movement.

Open buy positions from 1.1340, targeting the level of 1.1500.

At 13:30 (UTC+1), the report on retail sales in the US will come out, from which many expect data to be positive.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 16, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

On June 13, the company monitoring the cryptocurrency market - Glassnode, published data that indicate that the number of portfolios on which 0.1 BTC or more is stored has reached a new record. There are currently 3 054 282 such portfolios, which is 212 more than the previous record on May 21.

The number of investors with more than 0.1 BTC since the bull market in 2017 is constantly growing. On the other hand, from April 2019, new records above 2.75 million are systematically set. From August 2017 to January 2018, the number of such portfolios increased by 45% from 1.8 million to over 2.6 million. The number of wallets storing a minimum of 0.1 Bitcoin began to increase rapidly since February 2020, most likely due to the impending halving. The number of Ethereum addresses (ETH) on which 0.1 ETH or more is stored has also reached new ATH in recent days. Currently at least 0.1 ETH is on 2 984 080 wallets. Unlike Bitcoin, the number of Ethereum wallets storing more than 0.1 ETH was not able to improve its previous record until April this year. From March 2018, their numbers fluctuated between 2.4 and 2.7 million.

The last big bull market that took place in 2017 caused a huge increase in the number of ETH investors holding more than 0.1 Ethereum. It increased by approximately 400%, from 500,000 in August 2017, to 2.4 million in February 2018.

Technical Market Outlook:

The last local low on BTC/USD was made at the level of $8,860, but there is still a room for another wave down. Nevertheless, the bulls have managed to push the price back up after the low was made and currently the price is trading around the level of $9,400. In a case of a reversal from here, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,565 and the nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $9,249. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,691

WR2 - $10,307

WR1 - $9,752

Weekly Pivot - $9,407

WS1 - $8,828

WS2 - $8,448

WS3 - $7,903

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on June 16th

Forecast for June 16:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1457, 1.1420, 1.1378, 1.1361, 1.1305, 1.1275, 1.1240, 1.1209, 1.1170, 1.1141 and 1.1090. Here, the situation is in equilibrium: the descending structure of June 10 and the formation of the potential for the top of June 12. The development of the downward movement is expected to be cancelled after the price passes the noise range 1.1361 - 1.1378. In this case, the target is 1.1420. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1457. We expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom upon reaching this level.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1305 - 1.1275. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.1240. This is a key support level for the upward structure and its breakdown will begin to develop a downward trend from June 10. In this case, the first goal is 1.1209.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1378 Take profit: 1.1420

Buy: 1.1423 Take profit: 1.1455

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1277

Sell: 1.1274 Take profit: 1.1240

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2801, 1.2739, 1.2703, 1.2566, 1.2479, 1.2443, 1.2345, 1.2281 and 1.2184. Here, the price is in deep correction from the downward formation on June 10. The cancellation of this formation is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.2703 - 1.2739. In this case, the target is 1.2801. Price consolidation is near this level.

The continuation of the development of the downward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.2566. In this case, the first target is 1.2479. The price overcoming the noise range 1.2479 - 1.2443 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 1.2345. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 1.2345 - 1.2281. We are still considering the level of 1.2184 for the potential level for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 10, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2740 Take profit: 1.2800

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2566 Take profit: 1.2480

Sell: 1.2440 Take profit: 1.2347

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9687, 0.9618, 0.9561, 0.9488, 0.9462, 0.9416 and 0.9373. Here, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 11th. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9561. In this case, the target is 0.9618. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9618 will lead to a pronounced movement to the potential target - 0.9687. We expect a downward pullback from this level.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9488 - 0.9462. The breakdown of the last level will lead to deeper movement. Here, the target is 0.9416. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 11

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9561 Take profit: 0.9615

Buy : 0.9620 Take profit: 0.9685

Sell: 0.9488 Take profit: 0.9464

Sell: 0.9460 Take profit: 0.9418

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.39, 108.15, 107.67, 107.34, 106.64, 106.07, 105.78 and 105.08. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of June 5th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.64. In this case, the target is 106.07. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 106.07 - 105.78. We consider the level of 105.08 to be a potential value for the downward trend. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching this level.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.34 - 107.67. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 108.15. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before the noise range of 108.15 - 108.39.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 5

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 108.15

Sell: 106.64 Take profit: 106.07

Sell: 105.76 Take profit: 105.10

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3967, 1.3889, 1.3779, 1.3737, 1.3683, 1.3560, 1.3510 and 1.3452. Here, we are following the ascending structure of June 10th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3683. In this case, the target is 1.3737. Price consolidation is near this level. The price passing the noise range of 1.3737 - 1.3779 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3889. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3967. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching which.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3560 - 1.3510. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 1.3452. This is a key support level for the top and its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to the level of 1.3371.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3683 Take profit: 1.3737

Buy : 1.3780 Take profit: 1.3888

Sell: 1.3508 Take profit: 1.3452

Sell: 1.3450 Take profit: 1.3371

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 0.7052, 0.6990, 0.6941, 0.6849, 0.6789, 0.6741, 0.6705. 0.6613 and 0.6549.Here, the price is in a deep correction from the downward structure on June 10th. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 0.6941 - 0.6990. The breakdown of the level of 0.6990 will lead to the cancellation of the downward trend. In this case, the first target is 0.7052. The resumption of the development of the downward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 0.6849. Here, the first goal is 0.6789. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to rely on the movement to 0.6741. The price passing the noise range 0.6741 - 0.6705 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6613. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.6549. We expect a pullback to the top upon reaching level.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 10, a deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6943 Take profit: 0.6988

Buy: 0.6992 Take profit: 0.7050

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6790

Sell: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6741

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 123.46, 122.77, 122.22, 121.39, 120.96, 120.31, 119.94, 119.13 and 118.68. Here, we are watching the downward structure from June 5. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the top from June 15. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 122.22 - 122.77. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of an upward cycle. Here, the goal is 123.46. Price consolidation is near this level.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 121.39 - 120.96. The breakdown of the last level will have the downward trend of June 5. In this case, the target is 120.31. The price passing the noise range 120.31 - 119.94 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 119.13. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 118.68. We expect consolidation upon reaching which.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 5, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.22 Take profit: 122.75

Buy: 122.78 Take profit: 123.44

Sell: 121.39 Take profit: 121.00

Sell: 120.94 Take profit: 120.35

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.30, 137.68, 136.75, 136.44, 135.69, 135.27, 134.64 and 133.48. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure from June 5. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement from June 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 136.44 - 136.75. In this case, the target is 137.68. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.30. We expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom upon reaching this level.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 135.69 - 135.27. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 134.64. This level is a key support for the upward structure and its breakdown will continue the development of the downward trend of June 5. In this case, the potential target is 133.48.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 5, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.75 Take profit: 137.68

Buy: 137.70 Take profit: 138.30

Sell: 135.69 Take profit: 135.28

Sell: 135.25 Take profit: 134.66

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 15, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Estonia, one of the EU's friendliest countries in relation to cryptocurrencies, will withdraw licenses from hundreds of companies operating in the crypto industry. According to the media, this is the government's response to the $ 220 billion money laundering scandal.

Estonia was one of the first countries in the European Union to grant licenses to crypto companies. However, the country was forced to withdraw them after detecting hundreds of billions of dollars of dirty money in the Estonian branch of the largest Danish bank - Danske Bank A / S. This event put Estonia at the center of Europe's largest money laundering scandal.

Despite the fact that Danske Bank A / S's activities came to light already in 2018, they have not yet been settled. The case is complicated because one of the main people involved in the whole deal, who was responsible for the transaction, committed suicide.

The Estonian branch of Danske Bank was to process hundreds of thousands of transactions for people who were not residents of the European Union in the years 2009-2015. Most of his clients were names from the former Soviet Union.

Madis Reimand, head of Estonia's financial analytical unit, revealed that regulators suspect that licensed cryptocurrency companies are abusing their Estonian fraud rights elsewhere.

Therefore, more than 500 companies - which is about 1/3 of all cryptocurrency companies - that have not started operations in Estonia within six months of obtaining the license, have their licenses withdrawn.

"This is the first step in ordering the market that will allow us to deal with urgent matters, allowing only companies that may be subject to Estonian supervision and coercive measures."

- said Madis Reimand.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has failed to rally higher towards $250 and is currently testing the lower main channel boundary from below. Any violation of this line will likely make the level of $217.65 a temporary low for the market. The next technical support is seen at the level of $217.65 and $209.89. The nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $269.64

WR2 - $259.20

WR1 - $244.61

Weekly Pivot - $234.84

WS1 - $219.79

WS2 - $210.55

WS3 - $195.77

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on June 16, 2020

Unexpectedly, but it seems like the negotiation process on the commercial part of the divorce agreement between London and Brussels has moved forward. At least officials tirelessly claim to have taken a big step forward. The first to talk to about this was Boris Johnson, who was personally present at the talks. Although there is no specifics, the point is that the UK is ready to soften its position on a number of issues. But the most surprising is that the European Union is also ready to make some concessions. So the very prospect that the long-standing epic with Brexit is finally close to completion, and even successful, is an excellent reason to strengthen the pound. Although it should be noted that some progress in the negotiation process has been announced before, but everyone has been marking time to this day. This time, too, there is no specifics.

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Similarly, the labor market data raises quite a few questions, which was recently published. On the one hand, the unemployment rate remained unchanged, at around 3.9%. And this looks very strange, since the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 856,500 to 528,900. At first glance, everything is logical - the number of applications has decreased and the unemployment rate has remained unchanged. However, it was predicted that the unemployment rate should grow to 4.4%, while the number of applications should have been reduced to 330,000. In other words, we see that the number of applications has not decreased as much as expected, and, in theory, the unemployment rate was to grow quite significantly. But everything happened completely differently. So once again, labor market data is more likely to raise uncomfortable questions than joy and optimism about the pound.

Unemployment Rate (UK):

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Nevertheless, in general, the prospects for the pound look pretty good today. It's all about US statistics. Indeed, the pace of decline in retail sales in the United States may accelerate from -21.6% to -24.6%. It is worth noting that the current pace of decline is already record high. And of course, we are talking about an indicator that best reflects the dynamics of consumer activity, which is the main driver of the US economy.

Retail Sales (United States):

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In terms of technical analysis, we see an intensive upward trend, where the quote once again consolidated above the level of 1.2620, which means the desire of buyers to keep the previously set movement in terms of changing market ticks. In all this fluctuation, speculative activity is clearly visible, which gives the market consistently high volatility. Regarding the distance traveled, it is worth starting from May 25, that is, the beginning of the upward inertial course, due to which the pound has gained more than 650 points in weight. After which there is a correction, on the basis of which a regrouping of trading forces takes place, playing back the earlier inertial move by almost half.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the gradual change in market ranges where the quote is already trying to return to the fluctuating area of the end of 2018.

It can be assumed that the previously set move will remain on the market, but before further movement towards 1.2770, price fluctuations in the region of 1.2620/1.2685 are not excluded, where it is possible to enter local positions.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, you can see that the indicators of technical instruments on hourly and daily periods still indicate upward interest, signaling purchases.

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Fed decided to be proactive (consolidation of EUR/USD and USD/CAD pairs is expected)

The US dollar stabilized at yesterday's trading amid a new aggravation in the markets, caused by news of the detection of the COVID-19 virus in one of the wholesale food markets in Beijing. However, it was already under pressure during the American trading session in the wake of news about the Fed's decision to open a new credit line for medium and small businesses in the form of purchases of government bonds in the primary market.

The continuation of decline of equity markets in Asia, Europe and the United States, as well as commodity markets in the wake of increasing fears of the probability of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, primarily hit high-yielding currencies. The Australian and New Zealand dollars together with the raw materials – the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar were under pressure. The last three were further negatively affected by the local decline in crude oil prices. But, despite such negative dynamics, it is still worth considering this decline as local and only as profit-taking. The market reacted to coronavirus news as an informational guide for taking profit and nothing more.

We continue to expect that large-scale stimulus measures from the world Central Banks, headed by the Federal Reserve, will support financial markets by putting significant financial resources into real sectors of the economy with increasing liquidity in both the dollar and the euro, the yen, etc. Therefore, as soon as the topic of the second wave of the pandemic weakens, and we believe that this probability is more real, the demand for risky assets will increase markedly, which will cause the resumption of sales of the dollar across the entire spectrum of the currency market.

Our expectations on Monday were confirmed. The Fed unexpectedly announced a decision to buy corporate bonds in the primary market, which caused a turn in the markets in favor of demand for risky assets and caused a weakening of the US dollar.

It should also be noted that more and more evidence of the recovery of the Chinese economy is positive for the global economy. Its growth can play the same positive role as it was after the severe crisis of 2008-09. The data published on Monday on industrial production and fixed capital investment in China increased year-on-year, although it did not reach the expected values. According to the data, fixed capital investment increased to -6.3% in May against -10.3% a year earlier, with growth forecast to -5.9%. Industrial production increased to 4.4% from 3.9% in May last year, against expectations of 5.0% growth.

Assessing the general situation in global markets, we continue to consider the current correction as a good reason to open primarily deals against the US dollar in pairs with the Norwegian krone, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars. In addition, it will be interesting to purchase on global stock markets on a corrective decline in the value of assets with excellent medium-term growth prospects.

Forecast of the day:

It seems that the EUR/USD pair will be consolidated before the ECB meeting in the range of 1.1210-1.1400. All the same, the single currency is more likely to continue to grow in the future amid further weakening of the dollar due to the Fed's monetary policy.

The USD/CAD pair is in a borderline state in the wake of both the weakness of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From a technical point of view, if the pair declines below the level of 1.3500, it will adjust to 1.3365. At the same time, holding above this level may cause local recovery to 1.3685.

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GBP/AUD trying to reach 1.8052 For June 16, 2020

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After a breakout from the Raising Broadening Wedge Pattern, this pair now seems to make an upward retracement. However, as long as this pair does not close above the 1.8419 level, the odds are that GBP/AUD will continue to move to the downside to 1.8052 as the first target and 1.7924 as the second target.

The overall bias of GBP/AUD is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 16. Trump again surprised the world with contradictory statements. Traders are starting

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -52.6341

The British pound started a correction against the correction on the first trading day. Since the moving average line was broken earlier, the trend is now downward. Thus, after a new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down, we expect a resumption of the downward movement. We have already said many times that there were no good economic reasons for the strong fall of the US dollar. Of course, there can be a lot of reasons for such a movement. For example, the banal inclusion of the Fed's printing press for several trillion dollars, which flooded the economy as part of its stimulus programs. However, this procedure should also have spurred inflation, and inflation in America, according to recent reports, continues to slow. Of course, the reason may be the political crisis in the country, which is already turning into a fierce confrontation between the Republican and the Democrat. However, there have already been many such political crises. So far, Trump and Biden still keep at least within the conventional limits of decency and do not open fire from large-caliber guns, although they regularly "poke" each other. However, at this difficult time for America and its economy, probably many Americans would like the president and presidential candidate to spend their time on rallying the nation against the background of a racist scandal, on fighting the coronavirus and its spread, as well as on economic recovery and fighting unemployment, and not on their battles for power. Against the backdrop of all that is happening in the US, traders seem to have forgotten what is happening now in the UK. We have also written about this many times, and if we describe the situation in a nutshell, the British economy is on the verge of an even more serious decline than in the United States or the European Union. Brexit continues to put serious pressure on the economy of the Foggy Albion, and the lack of a trade agreement with the US and the European Union does not allow us to look at the future with optimism. Perhaps Boris Johnson knows what he is doing. Perhaps he does have a clear and detailed plan for economic recovery when Brexit is fully completed. Perhaps even the British economy will reach a new level without dependence on the EU within a few years. However, during these few years, the economy will continue to shrink. And the stronger the contraction, the longer the recovery will be. However, traders were not interested in all this information in the last week. The pound grew by leaps and bounds, and the main topic for discussion on the currency market remains the topic of the 2020 US presidential election.

Now the main question for the entire currency market is: was the fall of the US currency in recent weeks in some way an accident or is it a pattern for the current political and economic crisis in the United States? If the former, then the US dollar should start growing again soon, and in the long term at least not lose positions against the weakest pound. If the upward trend resumes, then the alarm will sound. Many international investors and hedgers will likely be afraid to invest in the dollar or the US economy in the coming months (although the stock market has almost completely recovered from the shock in March-April). The situation here may be the same as a year ago with the pound. In the UK at that time, there was complete political confusion, and no one could say what would happen to the country at all and in what status it would continue to exist. Now in America, hardly anyone can say what will happen to the country if Trump remains at its helm. It is already clear that the standoff with China will continue and it will not end with the signing of new trade agreements. It is already obvious that Beijing can terminate any agreement that is unfavorable to it at any time and will go to victory over Washington in its ways and means. And they are completely different from American behavior. Beijing has a fairly large number of trumps in the confrontation with Washington, so it is unlikely to get a clear and complete victory of America over China. In any case, both powers and both economies will suffer. The question is whether American voters want to continue to be in the status of perpetual war with China, which, firstly, is not a small state with which you can conduct a dialogue from a position of strength, and secondly, has suffered from the coronavirus crisis much less than the United States, which means it is already in a better position than six months ago. And the most important thing that we need to understand and find out for the Americans on the eve of elections is whether they want their country to be ruled by a person whose opinion changes 5 times a day, and whose statements contradict themselves. One of the last such statements just a few days ago was: "We are ending the era of endless wars. The US army should not restore foreign countries, but protect its country from enemies. We are not going to continue to resolve conflicts in regions that most Americans have not even heard of." Trump said, pre-signing the $ 2 trillion military budget. Each year of the Trump presidency has been marked by new trade confrontations, conflicts, and increased spending on defense and military budgets. It turned out to be a situation in which, during the same speech, Trump hinted at the rejection of armed intervention in the affairs of other states and at the same time announced his readiness to continue to allocate huge amounts of money for the army and weapons. Why, if the US refuses military conflicts? Most experts again agree that Washington and Trump personally are not going to abandon the expansionist policy. Thus, the US President continues to act in the usual way.

On Tuesday, June 16, the UK is scheduled to publish reports on unemployment, applications for unemployment benefits, as well as changes in average wages. These reports are potentially important, but they can be ignored by traders. However, they will still indicate the current state of the economy. A more important report will be in the United States, on retail sales. Even more important will be Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress, as well as the results of Boris Johnson's trip to Brussels, which is scheduled for June 18.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 146 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Tuesday, June 16, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2440 and 1.2732. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2512

S2 – 1.2451

S3 – 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2573

R2 – 1.2634

R3 – 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe started an upward correction against a new downward trend. Thus, today it is recommended to trade the pound/dollar pair for a decrease with the goals of 1.2512 and 1.2451 if the pair bounces off the moving average. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair when traders manage to return to the area above the moving average, with the first targets of 1.2695 and 1.2732.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 16. The EU intends to sue China over Hong Kong. Donald Trump continues to lose the support

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -6.9946

The EUR/USD currency pair has been actively adjusted in the last few trading days of the week. However, even though the correction has been going on for three days, it still cannot be called strong or even noticeable. The previous correction movement up was almost 650 points, and the correction itself at the moment – 200. So far, the euro/dollar pair has not even reached the classic 38.2% Fibonacci correction level. The first trading day of the week was spent in absolutely calm trading. No macroeconomic statistics were published on this day either in the United States or in the European Union. However, the only report that was published on Friday in the EU, on industrial production, also did not significantly affect the mood of market participants. However, by the end of the day, the euro currency still climbed up again. For two weeks, the US dollar has been falling almost non-stop, and we still cannot state with a high degree of accuracy the reasons for this fall. A correction is currently underway, but will the upward trend resume when it is completed? Traders (both large and small) now seem to ignore not only macroeconomic statistics in general but everything that is happening in Europe. Recall that recently several high-ranking officials of the ECB, the European Parliament, and the European Commission stated that the economy will suffer serious damage by the end of 2020, while the official forecast is minus 8.4% of GDP. Naturally, almost all macroeconomic indicators in the EU continue to fall and shrink. But the same pattern is observed in the United States. We can even say that the situation in the US and the EU is approximately the same now. But only economic matters. From our point of view, America is mired in a serious political crisis that will not end in resignation, impeachment, or re-election, and the culprit of this crisis is only one person - Donald Trump. We have repeatedly written and talked about the "merits" of Trump and why this man is not suitable for the role of the leader of the nation. More and more media outlets and independent experts are beginning to hold the same opinion. Moreover, more and more world experts and analysts are also beginning to adhere to the opinion that Trump himself is doing everything to avoid being re-elected for a second term. The actions of the US President in 2020 raise so many questions that even not all members of his Republican party are ready to support Trump in future elections. So now the United States is in a position of uncertainty. In a position where it is unclear what will happen next with the country, how long and how hard it will recover from the "coronavirus crisis" and when this crisis itself will end at all? The fact that the first person in the United States removed the "lockdown" is good for the economy, but in recent weeks, the country has recorded a strong increase in cases of COVID-2019. Thus, the United States in principle can do without the second wave of the epidemic, since they did not cope even with the first. Well, it is hardly necessary to say that the longer the virus persists, the longer the economy will stall. Not all Americans are willing to risk their health and live a full life during the epidemic. This means that the economy will not be able to recover quickly and fully before the drug against COVID-2019 is invented. Thus, the US dollar may have become cheaper for a reason in recent weeks. Perhaps it's all the fault of Donald Trump, who very much wanted the US dollar to cost less in the foreign exchange market. In general, if in the next week or two the euro/dollar pair manages to return to its original positions (around the level of 1.0900), then we can talk about stabilization of the situation. If not, and the upward trend continues to form, then it will be possible to panic all adherents to buy the US dollar at any time and under any circumstances. Also, we should not forget that despite the recovery of the stock market in the US, there are a lot of other factors that affect the American economy. For example, government debts that have recently grown to $ 26 trillion and need to be serviced. And one of the main creditors of the United States is China, which Washington has been at war with in recent years...

At the same time, the European Union is considering whether to appeal to the International Court of Justice in the Hague with a formal lawsuit against China for its desire to adopt a law on "national security in Hong Kong". This week, the European Parliament will vote on whether to take this issue to court. The EU notes that China's decision to adopt this law violates not only the Sino-British agreement but also the international covenant on civil and political rights. Earlier, Washington threatened Beijing with new sanctions and depriving Hong Kong of all trade preferences, which is expected to make the district a normal part of China from one of the largest financial centers in the world, which will immediately fall under all US duties and sanctions that are already in effect. Also, the official London expressed its claims, which threatened China with issuing British citizenship and permission to live and work in the UK to all residents of Hong Kong who wish to do so. Beijing has already asked the United States and Britain not to interfere in China's internal affairs, but a new political and geopolitical conflict is brewing.

On the second trading day of the week in the United States and the European Union, only minor reports are planned, which are unlikely to greatly interest traders and cause a serious market reaction. First, the German consumer price index for May will be published, which is projected at 0.5% y/y. Later, more formal and statistical data will be available on the ZEW Institute's business sentiment index for Germany, the ZEW current economic conditions assessment index for Germany, and the EU economic sentiment index. Recall that these indicators reflect only the mood of investors. In the United States today, retail sales for May are scheduled to be published with a forecast of +8%, as well as industrial production with a forecast of +3%. However, more important will be the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in the US Congress. Recall that Powell recently again mercilessly criticized by Donald Trump for refusing to continue to reduce rates, as well as for too low forecasts of the state of the economy in 2020-2022. Powell also called on Congress to provide more financial assistance to the American economy. Therefore, his speech is almost guaranteed to give traders new food for thought.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 16 is 119 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", thanks to the last trading days. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1196 and 1.1434 today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down will signal a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair returned to the area above the moving average line. Thus, at this time, long positions with the goals of 1.1434 and 1.1475 are again relevant before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before fixing the price below the moving average with the first goal of the Murray level "3/8"-1.1108.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed starts buying corporate bonds and optimism returns to the markets again; Overview of NZD and AUD

Demand for risk suddenly returned again after the Fed announced its intention to start buying individual corporate bonds. This secondary market of corporate credit facilities up to 250 billion was announced back in March, but until today, only 5.5 billion ETFs have been purchased. It is obvious that the official start of the implementation of the next support package could not be ignored by the markets, which led to a surge of positive emotions.

In addition, the Reuters report cannot be ignored, according to which the US government is going to allow US companies to work with Huawei on 5G network standards.

Amid such serious support, the American indices closed in positive territory, the S & P500 added 0.83%, but the Asian indices reacted much more rapidly - the Shanghai Composite added 1.2% as of 5.40 Universal time, the Australian S & P / ASX 200 by more than 4%, and the Japanese Nikkei added 4.8% after a dull closing of the previous day. This is a very strong growth, which characterizes a high level of optimism of the players.

Apparently, if nothing extraordinary happens, the growth of positivity will be supported on Tuesday, which will be reflected in the growth in demand for commodity currencies.

NZD/USD

Macroeconomic reports look noticeably better than those of most countries in Europe, and especially the United States. Business activity indices are still below 50p, but the dynamics is obvious – the PMI level for both the services sector and the manufacturing sector is starting from a low base and is noticeably higher than in March-April.

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The price index for dairy products is stable, and the "pandemic hysteria" has not caused significant damage to the main export industry. The inflation report from ANZ turned out to be confidently positive, since a slight increase of 0.2% was recorded in May, and the annual index corrected to 2.8%, which is noticeably higher than in most G10 countries and corresponds to a good recovery in consumer demand.

The net short position of NZD declined over the previous week by 91 million to 0.732 billion, the estimated fair price is behind the spot price, which increases the risk of corrective reduction of NZD/USD, but has a clear upward direction, which should be interpreted as an obvious bullish direction in the current conditions.

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The positivity is supported by the transition to alert level 1, which means almost complete removal of quarantine measures. There are 8 days left before the RBNZ meeting, and banks are not predicting a rate change, but it is likely that QE will increase to about $ 90 billion either at the next meeting or at the next one in August.

NZD/USD entered the siderange, exit from which is more likely to go up; there are no reasons to close long positions. Another small correctional wave is possible to support 0.6315/20, where it will be possible to add to purchases after the base is formed.

AUD/USD

Despite the fact that inflation expectations in June were slightly overestimated, the prospects for the Aussie at the current stage are quite good, the chances of continued growth remain high. According to the latest CFTC report, the net short position declined by 267 million, the AUD responded with growth to the removal of quarantine measures. The estimated price has a similar dynamic with NZD.

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The RBA minutes do not contain any surprises, the regulator's policy remains unchanged at the current stage, and the gloomy outlook on the prospects for recovery essentially repeats the rhetoric of other Central banks. An employment report in May will be published on Thursday, unemployment is projected to increase from 6.2% to 7% and a further 125 thousand jobs will be lost. These expectations are already in the current AUD rate.

A support zone of 0.6775/80 has formed with a high probability, we should expect a second attempt to move to the resistance 0.7021 and consolidate higher, after which the upward trend will receive an additional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 16, 2020

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The correction from 121.82 completed with a dip to 120.31 before starting to rally higher to break above the minor peak at 121.82. We should expect support near 121.47 being able to protect the downside for the next push higher towards 122.50 and 123.49 on the way higher to the next upside target at 125.76.

The push to 125.76 should complete wave iii and set the stage for a new larger correction. However, our focus should remain on the upside.

R3: 123.49

R2: 122.87

R1: 122.50

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.70

S2: 121.47

S3: 120.97

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.90 and we will move our stop higher to 120.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CAD/JPY gaining ground June 16, 2020.

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If we look at the 4-hour chart, we can see that the CAD/JPY pair is making a 123 pattern formation. Now it is trying to break through the 79.46 level. If so, the pair will easily break the 79.75 level as its first target and the 81.00 level as its second target. As long as this pair does not decline and close bellow the 78.31 level, this scenario is likely to occur.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 16, 2020

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GBP/JPY unexpectedly dipped to a new low of 133.47. A drop was short-lived. The GBP/JPY pair is now recovering. It may break above the minor peak at 136.04 indicating that the correction from 139.74 has completed and a new impulsive rally to 148.32 is likely to occur.

In the short-term, we should expect minor support at 135.35 to be able to protect the downside for the next push higher to 137.29 and 139.74 on the way higher to 148.32 and above.

R3: 137.79

R2: 139.27

R1: 136.63

Pivot: 136.36

S1: 135.94

S2: 135.35

S3: 135.05

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 133.70 was hit for a loss and we will look to re-buy GBP at 135.50 or upon a break above 136.36

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 16. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Unique pound continues to

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Despite gloomy fundamental statistics and the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, the British pound continues to show strength and improves its position against the US dollar. Yesterday I paid attention to the purchase of the pound, both in the morning and in the afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bulls, having taken the level 1.2536, managed to gain a foothold on it, and its repeated test closer to the middle of the US session led to the continuing the bull market, which made it possible to reach a new high of 1.2620, above which trade is now underway. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 9 recorded a sharp reduction in short positions and an increase in long ones, which indicates a completely possible change in the market direction in favor of strengthening the pound. This once again indicates that traders are counting on progress in negotiations related to the trade agreement, and are reviewing their positions, preparing for a major rising wave of the pound in the second half of the year. The COT report states that over the week there was a reduction in short non-profit positions from the level of 63,014 to the level of 52,941. By the way, this is the first reduction in short positions since April 14 of this year. At this time, long non-profit positions sharply rose from 26,970 to 28,893. As a result, the nonprofit net position reduced its negative value to -24,048, versus -36,044, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

As for the intraday strategy, as long as buyers control the market above 1.2620 support, we can count on strengthening the British pound further. Forming a false breakout in this range after the release of a number of important data on the state of the UK labor market will be an additional impulse to open long positions in order to update and consolidate above the high of 1.2714. Such a scenario will open a direct path to resistance 1.2803 and 1.2906, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound returns, and you can't expect anything good from the April indicators on the labor market, then after the GBP/USD returns to support 1.2620, it is best to postpone opening new long positions until the test of the low of 1.2536, or buy immediately for a rebound from the weekly low of 1.2453, where yesterday there was a reversal of the downward trend.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers already had problems maintaining a bearish momentum, and today it is very important how to quickly return the pair to the support level of 1.2620. This will be possible after the release of data on the state of the UK labor market. Consolidating below 1.2620 will be a signal to open short positions in GBP/USD, which will lead to a repeated decrease in the pair and updating the low of 1.2536, where the moving averages are held, as well as to the support test of 1.2453, where I recommend taking profit. If the demand for the pound continues in the first half of the day, I do not recommend rushing with opening short positions from the resistance of 1.2714. It is best to wait a false breakout forms there, and sell immediately for a rebound from a larger weekly high of 1.2803, based on an intraday correction of 30-40 points.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to take the initiative again.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair decreases, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2590, and you can buy the pound immediately on the rebound after testing the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2490.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 16. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Unique pound continues to

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Despite gloomy fundamental statistics and the lack of progress in trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, the British pound continues to show strength and improves its position against the US dollar. Yesterday I paid attention to the purchase of the pound, both in the morning and in the afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bulls, having taken the level 1.2536, managed to gain a foothold on it, and its repeated test closer to the middle of the US session led to the continuing the bull market, which made it possible to reach a new high of 1.2620, above which trade is now underway. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 9 recorded a sharp reduction in short positions and an increase in long ones, which indicates a completely possible change in the market direction in favor of strengthening the pound. This once again indicates that traders are counting on progress in negotiations related to the trade agreement, and are reviewing their positions, preparing for a major rising wave of the pound in the second half of the year. The COT report states that over the week there was a reduction in short non-profit positions from the level of 63,014 to the level of 52,941. By the way, this is the first reduction in short positions since April 14 of this year. At this time, long non-profit positions sharply rose from 26,970 to 28,893. As a result, the nonprofit net position reduced its negative value to -24,048, versus -36,044, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

As for the intraday strategy, as long as buyers control the market above 1.2620 support, we can count on strengthening the British pound further. Forming a false breakout in this range after the release of a number of important data on the state of the UK labor market will be an additional impulse to open long positions in order to update and consolidate above the high of 1.2714. Such a scenario will open a direct path to resistance 1.2803 and 1.2906, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound returns, and you can't expect anything good from the April indicators on the labor market, then after the GBP/USD returns to support 1.2620, it is best to postpone opening new long positions until the test of the low of 1.2536, or buy immediately for a rebound from the weekly low of 1.2453, where yesterday there was a reversal of the downward trend.

analytics5ee854d5e738f.jpg

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers already had problems maintaining a bearish momentum, and today it is very important how to quickly return the pair to the support level of 1.2620. This will be possible after the release of data on the state of the UK labor market. Consolidating below 1.2620 will be a signal to open short positions in GBP/USD, which will lead to a repeated decrease in the pair and updating the low of 1.2536, where the moving averages are held, as well as to the support test of 1.2453, where I recommend taking profit. If the demand for the pound continues in the first half of the day, I do not recommend rushing with opening short positions from the resistance of 1.2714. It is best to wait a false breakout forms there, and sell immediately for a rebound from a larger weekly high of 1.2803, based on an intraday correction of 30-40 points.

analytics5ee854ea4f5c0.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to take the initiative again.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair decreases, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2590, and you can buy the pound immediately on the rebound after testing the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2490.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 16. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro bulls don't intend to

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Buyers of the European currency did an excellent job and decided not to wait for the situation to worsen and return to the market as early as possible. In my forecast for the afternoon, I drew attention to purchases above the level of 1.1244 with a repeated test of this range. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears tried to regain the 1.1244 area, each time testing it on the volume, but this only led to forming this range as a new support. The bulls reached resistance 1.1317 by the middle of the US session, where the demand for the euro sharply fell . Not surprisingly, the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 9 recorded an increase in long positions, as well as a reduction in short ones, which indicates that the pair has maintained a bullish momentum at that time even at a weekly closing price of 1.0910, as well as retaining buyer interest with its decline and correction. The report shows a decrease in short non-profit positions from 93,172 to 98,020, while long non-profit positions sharply rose from 174,412 to 184,669. As a result, the positive non-profit net position rose again to 95,639, against 81,240, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets even at current prices high enough for the market. As for the intraday strategy, euro buyers need to keep the market under their control. The first goal is to keep the area 1.1326 and form a false breakout on it, which will be a signal to open long positions in the hope of updating the highs of 1.1400 and 1.1462, where I recommend taking profit. However, the bulls may decide not to be proactive, since we will find a number of important fundamental statistics in the morning: from inflation in Germany to moods in the business environment of the eurozone from the ZEW Institute, which can significantly affect the market. Therefore, if EUR/USD drops below the level of 1.1326, it is best to postpone long positions until an update of support at 1.1262, or buy the euro immediately on the rebound from a new weekly low of 1.1187, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers urgently need to rehabilitate themselves and as quickly as possible regain the level of 1.1326, on which the further direction of the pair depends. If the eurozone reports turn out to be quite mediocre, the actions of the bears after the breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.1326 will increase the pressure on the pair, which will lead to a return to the support area of 1.1262, where sellers can begin to have difficulties, as moving averages go slightly above this level. It will only be possible to speak with confidence about the resumption of pressure on the euro and the continuation of the downward correction after a real breakout and consolidation below the 1.1262 range, which was formed at the end of last week. Sellers will aim for the low of 1.1187, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls turn out to be strong in the morning, the euro's growth may lead to updating the high of 1.1400, where I recommend looking at short positions when forming a false breakout. Selling EUR/USD immediately for a rebound is best done from a new weekly high of 1.1462, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt to return buyers to the euro market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1365 will lead to a new upward momentum of the pair. In case the euro falls, the lower border of the indicator will provide support around 1.1240 from which you can buy for a rebound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 16, 2020

EUR/USD

On Monday evening, the Federal Reserve announced the launch of a new program to help markets and large businesses - the redemption of corporate bonds from the secondary market worth up to 10% per issuer. Risk appetite sharply grew, the S&P 500 showed an increase of 0.83%, while the euro added 68 points. In this situation, the euro can grow to 1.1385 or slightly higher without breaking the forming divergence line for the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart.

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The price reached the resistance of the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. In the optimistic scenario, the price will likely turn down to 1.1265 and deeper to 1.1200, which will become the final turn into a medium-term decline. But the signal line of the Marlin oscillator went up from its own channel and into the trend growth zone.

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The euro's continued growth causes many uncertainties, this increase may continue to the level of 1.1505 - slightly higher than the high on March 9.

We are waiting for the situation to develop, opening trading positions in any direction is associated with increased risk.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 16, 2020

GBP/USD

One technical bullish aspect managed to work out yesterday, to which we paid attention - this is the reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the border of the declining trend territory. The signal line reversal occurred (marked by an arrow on the daily chart), the pound rose by 195 points from yesterday's low to the height of today's Asian session.

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The price was recorded at the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, now the choice is to move down or continue rising to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2725), so that in the future there will be the possibility of even higher growth to 1.2914 (Fibonacci level of 76.4% )

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The price is close to the resistance of the MACD on the four-hour scope, Marlin line in the growing trend zone. There will probably be an attempt to break through to 1.2725. But only time will tell whether it will turn out successful or not. The Bank of England is set to hold a meeting on Thursday and then the price will determine the choice of direction. The current situation is not trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on June 16, 2020

AUD/USD

Yesterday evening, the aggressive growth of the US dollar due to the Federal Reserve's statement about the intention to buy corporate bonds from the secondary market pushed the Australian currency up, it ended the day above a strong technical level of 0.6900. The Marlin oscillator is growing; formally, the target 0.7080 is open before the price.

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Considering the situation on a smaller four-hour chart indicates the presence of an alternative scenario that has a high probability of implementation - a price reversal from current levels, from the notched MACD line (indicator blue). The Marlin oscillator in the zone of positive values. Price taking above yesterday's high will still launch the first scenario with an increase to 0.7080. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on June 16, 2020

USD/JPY

Yesterday's optimism in the stock markets in connection with the Federal Reserve's announcement of a new program for the redemption of corporate bonds, to a lesser extent affected the Japanese yen. The daily candle remained black, although it still closed above the price channel line on the daily chart. The price may continue corrective growth to the level of 107.95, but the Marlin oscillator is kept in the negative trend zone, so growth may not occur, and yesterday's exit over the linear resistance could turn out to be false.

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The MACD line corresponds to the target level 107.95 on the four-hour chart. Marlin is in the growth zone here and the general situation on the H4 is conducive to continued growth. However, possible growth remains corrective, since the price is still below the indicator lines of balance and MACD - these lines have a technical advantage over the Marlin oscillator.

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The Japanese Nikkei 225 index is growing by 3.05% today in the Asian session, which the yen does not respond to at all. This nevertheless indicates the strength of the Japanese currency and is an additional factor in pulling down the USD/JPY pair. To consolidate the downward trend, the price must go below yesterday's low of 107.01, which will automatically mean that the price would fall under the MACD line on a daily scope. Target at 105.90 will open. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

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USDCAD broke below ascending trendline support! Further drop expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.35623

Reason for Entry: Graphical overlap

Take Profit: 1.34599

Reason for Take Profit: 161.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.35856

Reason for Take Profit: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, moving average resistance

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Comprehensive analysis for commodity currencies AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD (Weekly timeframe) for the 2nd half of

Intermediate operational scale (Weekly)

What is expected in the weekly timeframe in the second half of 2020 from commodity instruments AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD?____________________

Australian dollar vs US dollar

The movement of the Australian dollar AUD/USD in the second half of 2020 will continue in the equilibrium zone (0.6510 - 0.6810 - 0.7130) of the Intermediate operational scale fork ( Weekly), taking into account the direction of the range breakdown:

  • resistance level of 0.6890 - the upper limit of ISL61.8 balance zone of the Minor operational scale fork (Daily)
  • support level 0.6810 - Median Line for the Intermediate operational scale forks (Weekly)

The downward movement of the Australian dollar will develop as a result of the breakdown of the median Line Intermediate (Weekly) - support level of 0.6810 - and will be directed to the goals:

Median Line (0.6620) fork operational scale Minor (Daily);

  • lower bound of ISL38.2 (0.6510) equilibrium zone of the Intermediate operational scale fork ;
  • lower bound of ISL38.2 (0.6340) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork;
  • with the prospect of reaching the channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line Minor (0.6290 - 0.6100 - 0.5900).

The upward movement of AUD/USD will be true in the case of breakdown of the top border ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks (Daily) - the resistance level of 0.6890 - and can be continued to the objectives:

  • upper bound of ISL61.8 (0.7130) equilibrium zone of the Intermediate operational scale fork (Weekly);
  • ultimate Shiff Line Intermediate (0.7350);
  • FSL Intermediate end line (0.7750).

The AUD/USD movement options are shown on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

In the second half of 2020, the movement of the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) will be determined by the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.4160 - 1.3610 - 1.3140) of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork and will depend on the direction of the range breakdown:

resistance level 1.3710 - initial line of SSL of the operational scale forks;

support level 1.3610 - 1/2 Median Line of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork.

The upward movement of the USD/CAD will be possible in case of breaking the resistance level of 1.3710 on the starting line SSL of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork and will be directed to the Median Line (1.3860) equilibrium zone of the Minor (Daily) operational scale fork and the channel borders 1/2 Median Line Minor (1.3960 - 1.4160 - 1.4360).

The downward movement of the Canadian dollar will be true in the case of breakdown of 1/2 Median Line of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork - support level 1.3610 - and may continue to objectives:

  • line reaction RL100.0 Intermediate (1.3460);
  • final Shiff Line (1.3360) of the minor operating scale fork (Daily);
  • lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Intermediate (1.3140);
  • with the prospect of reaching the final FSL Minor line (1.3030) followed by updating the local minimum 1.2950.

We look at the USD/CAD movement options on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) in the second half of 2020 will depend on the mining zone of equilibrium (0.6400 - 0.6700 - 0.6980) of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork and will be determined by the direction of the breakout of the range:

resistance level 0.6470 - upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork;

support level 0.6400 - the lower boundary ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork.

The downward movement of the NZD/USD can be continued in case of breaking the lower border ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork - support level of 0.6400 - and will be routed to the 1/2 Median Line Intermediate (0.6270) and the borders of the zone of equilibrium (0.6150 - 0.6000 - 0.5850) of the Minor (Daily) operational scale fork.

The upward movement in the NZ dollar may get its development after the breakdown of the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Intermediate (Weekly) - resistance level 0.6470 - and will come within the zone of equilibrium (0.6400 - 0.6700 - 0.6980) of the Intermediate (Weekly) operational scale fork subject to testing of the final line FSL (0.6630) of the Minor (Daily) operational scale fork and local maximum 0.6753.

The markup of the NZD/USD movement options is shown on the animated chart.

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____________________

The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy"orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com