GBP and AUD: in the pound, there is a test of large levels of support. RBA leaves policy unchanged

Today, the Australian dollar fell in the first half against the US dollar, diluting the extremely low volatility that has been observed for a long time in the AUD / USD currency pair.

RBA decision

The interest rate decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia went against some investor expectations, even though most economists agreed that the rate would remain unchanged.

According to the data, the RBA left the key interest rate unchanged, at the level of 1.50%, stating that the rates correspond to the target levels of inflation and economic growth. The RBA expects GDP growth in 2018 to be on average slightly higher than 3.0%. A similar growth is predicted for 2019.

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In general, the bank did not change its attitude to the unemployment rate with inflation, saying that further progress is expected in reducing unemployment and increasing core inflation, which is expected to be gradual. The Central Bank expects a decline in unemployment over the next two years.

The main cause of uncertainty for the country's economy is the large debt of households, as well as low wages. Additional problems, like for most other countries, create the United States because of its trade policy.

As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD currency pair, then the daily chart clearly shows the persistence of a long-term downtrend in the trading instrument. The immediate targets for the Australian dollar sellers are the lows of 0.7140 and 0.7080.

The United Kingdom

The British pound continued to decline against the US dollar amid uncertainty related to Brexit.

Let me remind you that today, it is necessary to pay attention to the speech of former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, who will present his own concept of exit from the EU to party members. Tomorrow, British Prime Minister Theresa May will deliver an important speech on Brexit.

The PMI data for the construction sector put additional pressure on the British pound. According to the report, despite the construction of housing and commercial buildings, the pace gradually slowed down, which affected the index. PMI for the UK construction sector in September 2018 fell to 52.1 points from 52.9 points in August. An additional factor in the slowdown is the weak economic growth rate this year.

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As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, there is a very interesting situation.

On the daily chart, the pair fell to the 30-day and 50-day moving average and tested them, which already limits the downside potential in the pound.

Also, in the support area of 1.2940, the lower boundary of the new medium-term ascending channel, which was formed in the middle of August of this year, can be built, which will allow investors putting a positive outcome on Brexit to gain long positions in a pound at a good price.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on October 2

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price is near the limit values for the downward structure of September 24, in connection with which, we expect a rollback up. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the development of the main downward trend of September 20 is expected after the breakdown of 1.2955. The currency pair Dollar / Franc is following the development of the ascending cycle of September 21, and we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 0.9852. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is still in the correctional area of the upward structure. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 131.32 - 131.02. The currency pair Pound / Yen is following the downward structure of September 21 as the main one.

Forecast for October 2:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1605, 1.1571, 1.1553, 1.1516 and 1.1496. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of September 24. At the moment, the price is near the limit values and we expect a reversal upwards. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1553 - 1.1571 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1605 and this level is a key support for the downward structure.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1516 - 1.1496, hence we expect a key upward reversal.

The main trend is the downward cycle from September 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1553 Take profit: 1.1570

Buy 1.1573 Take profit: 1.1603

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3149, 1.3114, 1.3059, 1.2995, 1.2957, 1.2867 and 1.2803. Here, we are following the downward structure of September 20th. The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, is expected in the range of 1.2995 - 1.2957. The passage at the price of the range of 1.2995 - 1.2957 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2867. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2803, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The correction is possible after the breakdown of 1.3059. In this case, the goal is 1.3114. The range of 1.3114 - 1.3149 is a key support for the downward structure, to the level of 1.3149, we expect the clearance of a potential structure for the top.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3060 Take profit: 1.3114

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2955 Take profit: 1.2870

Sell: 1.2864 Take profit: 1.2806

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9907, 0.9852, 0.9826, 0.9785, 0.9759, 0.9729 and 0.9705. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of September 21. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9826 - 0.9852 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9907, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9785 - 0.9759 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9729 and the range of 0.9729 - 0.9705 is the key support for the top, before it we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9826 Take profit: 0.9850

Buy: 0.9855 Take profit: 0.9905

Sell: 0.9785 Take profit: 0.9763

Sell: 0.9755 Take profit: 0.9733

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.32, 114.00, 113.83, 113.60, 113.36 and 113.01. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of September 13. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 113.83 - 114.00 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 114.32, upon reaching this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.60 - 113.36 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a protracted correction. Here, the target is 113.01 and this level is the key support.

The main trend: the local upward structure of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 114.03 Take profit: 114.30

Sell: 113.60 Take profit: 113.38

Sell: 113.34 Take profit: 113.07

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.2953, 1.2904, 1.2873, 1.2846, 1.2786, 1.2743, 1.2681 and 1.2645. Here, we are following the downward structure of September 27. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2786 - 1.2743 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2681. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2645, upon reaching which we expect consolidation in the range of 1.2645 - 1.2681, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.2846 - 1.2873 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2904 and this level is a key support for the downward structure of September 27. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle case target is 1.2953.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2846 Take profit: 1.2871

Buy: 1.2874 Take profit: 1.2902

Sell: 1.2784 Take profit: 1.2746

Sell: 1.2740 Take profit: 1.2684

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7261, 0.7236, 0.7221, 0.7186, 0.7168, 0.7144 and 0.7130. Here, we follow the downward structure of September 21. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7186 - 0.7168 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7144. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.7130, upon reaching which we expect consolidation in the range of 0.7144 - 0.7130, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is expected in the range of 0.7221 - 0.7236 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7261 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7221 Take profit: 0.7234

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7260

Sell: 0.7186 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7166 Take profit: 0.7146

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 133.85, 133.16, 132.59, 131.32, 131.02, 130.34 and 129.97. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from September 25. The development of this structure is expected after the passage of the price of the range of 131.32 - 131.02. In this case, the goal is 130.34. For the time being, we consider the potential value for the bottom to be the level of 129.97, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 132.59 - 133.16 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of an upward trend. In this case, the goal is 133.85.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of September 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.60 Take profit: 133.14

Buy: 133.18 Take profit: 133.80

Sell: 131.00 Take profit: 130.40

Sell: 130.31 Take profit: 130.00

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 149.69, 149.00, 148.17, 147.59, 146.84, 145.89, 144.86 and 144.11. Here, we are following the downward structure of September 21 as the main structure. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 148.17 - 147.59 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 146.84. Its breakdown in turn will lead to the movement to 145.89, near this level is the consolidation. The breakdown at the level of 145.89 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 144.86. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 144.11, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

An upward movement is possible after the breakdown of 149.00. In this case, the goal is 149.69, up to this level we expect the design of the local structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 149.00 Take profit: 149.65

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 147.55 Take profit: 146.90

Sell: 146.80 Take profit: 146.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD / USD: China and the RBA put pressure on the Australian dollar

At today's meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia did not impress traders with its rhetoric. The tonality of the accompanying statement was rather negative, despite the absence of obvious "failures" among the key macroeconomic indicators. The reaction of AUD / USD was appropriate. On the one hand, the bulls of the pair had to leave the framework of the 72nd figure, but, on the other hand, there was no pulsed / large-scale decline. In other words, Aussie reflected the negative side of the October meeting, but did not panic, staying within the multi-day price range.

The main claims of the Australian regulator were the growth rates of wages and household consumption. The dynamics of these indicators is largely related to each other, and their weak growth is reflected in the dynamics of inflation. This is not a problem today. As early as the end of 2017, a similar trend disturbed regulator members so much that some of them (in particular, Jan Harper) allowed a reduction in the interest rate if the incomes of the population and consumer activity of Australians do not grow. Today, monetary policy easing is not talked about, but the urgency of the problem remains high.

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The remaining theses of the RBA were neutral. The regulator said that the level of the current interest rate supports the economy, as well as the low rate of the Australian against the dollar. Unemployment will gradually decline to five percent, and inflation will also gradually increase in 2019 and 2020. In the same vein, the Central Bank assessed the dynamics of other key indicators: smooth, gradual growth against the background of external risks. Calm rhetoric has been ignored by the market, as it has been repeated for more than one month. Traders responded to concerns about wages, but only "formally". Following the meeting, the pair fell by only fifty points. And then, the focus of the market shifted to a slightly different plane.

The fact is that the Australian dollar reacts quite sharply to the American-Chinese conflict. Any hints of escalation (or de-escalation) of the trade war have a strong influence on the dynamics of AUD / USD. Therefore, today's Aussie movement should be viewed solely from this point of view, taking into account the "passing" meeting of the RBA. Unfortunately, relations between China and the United States leave much to be desired. Literally today, it became known that the head of the Pentagon canceled his visit to Beijing "because of the growing tensions between the countries." This is unofficial information, with reference to a high-ranking source, it published one of the most influential American publications. According to insiders, the matter is not only in a trade war, which is likely to be continued in the near future. There are other fairly weighty claims of the United States to the Middle Kingdom.

In particular, we are talking about China's attempts to intervene in the elections to the US Congress. It was precisely such accusations voiced by Trump against Beijing. In his words, the Chinese are trying, "using various means," to prevent the Republicans from winning the midterm elections on November 6. He did not specify which methods the PRC resorts to, but, by and large, this is not so important in the context of the foreign exchange market. It is obvious that under conditions of mutual accusations, it is not necessary to expect trade negotiations, and even more so, the conclusion of a mutually beneficial transaction. The incident in the disputed waters of the South China Sea only eloquently confirmed all of the above. I remind you that yesterday, the Chinese warship Luyang, in the opinion of the Americans, "made an unprofessional and dangerous maneuver," because of which, the US destroyer was forced to evade a collision.

China is the main trading partner of Australia, so this fundamental background puts pressure on the Australian dollar. Moreover, the macroeconomic indicators of China are not encouraging. In particular, the PMI index in the industrial sector, which is calculated by Caixin and Markit, fell to 50 points, that is, to a kind of "red line". The decline is tendentious. It falls over the past four months, weakening to a year and a half minimum. If the index falls below the 50th mark, the Australian dollar will receive an additional reason for its weakening.

Thus, the fundamental picture contributes to a further decrease in AUD / USD. The lack of optimism on the part of the RBA, the further cooling of relations between the US and China, the slowdown in Chinese industry and the oversupply in the iron ore market all reduce the demand for the Australian dollar amid the strengthening of the US currency (the dollar index has now reached a three-week high of 95.22 paragraph).

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From a technical point of view, if the currency pair AUD / USD on the daily chart consolidates below 72.02 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator), then the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will form a bearish Parade signal, and the price will be between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands . This combination will technically open the way to the bottom line of the above indicator, which corresponds to the price of 0.7090. If relations between China and the United States continue to deteriorate, the negative dynamics of the commodity market will put pressure on Aussie, and achieving this level of support will become only a matter of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: unsuccessful attempt to increase the pound and the fall of the euro after the IMF report

Yesterday's weak data on the American economy failed to put pressure on the US dollar, which continued to strengthen against risky assets, especially against the European currency.

A report by IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde led to the euro selling off in the afternoon, after the global economic outlook was revised downward.

Basic data

According to the data, construction spending in the United States in August increased compared with the previous month, but the increase was much worse than economists' forecasts.

As indicated in the report of the Ministry of Commerce, construction costs in the United States in August rose by 0.1% compared with July and amounted to $ 1.318 trillion. Economists had expected a monthly increase in spending by 0.5%. The volume of private construction in August fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month, while public spending on construction during the reporting period increased by 2% compared with the previous month.

Activity growth in the US manufacturing sector slowed down in September, as in many other developed economies.

According to the ISM Institute for Supply Management, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the US manufacturing sector in September of this year dropped to 59.8 points against 61.3 points in August, when it reached the 2004 maximum. Economists had forecast that the index would be 60.1 points. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 mean an increase in production activity.

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IMF Forecast

As I noted above, yesterday's statements by the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, led to pressure on the euro. The decline began immediately after Lagarde voiced a pessimistic assessment of the world economy by the IMF, saying that the prospects for the world economy had deteriorated and the world economic climate was beginning to change for the worse. At the moment, according to the data, the outflow of funds from emerging markets could reach 100 billion US dollars.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump officially announced a new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, stating that a trade agreement with Canada and Mexico is the most important one for all time. In his opinion, NAFTA's past agreement was the worst in history, and the new agreement is based on justice and interaction. The US president also noted that the agreement covers trade of nearly 1.2 trillion dollars.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is also pleased with the signing, and he is confident that the agreement will remove uncertainty for producers and investors in both countries. Trudeau also said that he had to make compromises, but the concluded trade agreement would greatly benefit the economy.

Against this background, the Canadian dollar made another attempt to strengthen against the US dollar, which was unsuccessful.

The pound rose to talk about Brexit, but then lost all its positions

The British pound attempted growth, but did not receive support from major investors, after the British Brexit minister, Dominic Raab, yesterday urged his party to rally to support Prime Minister Theresa May's plan. Raab appealed to his negatively-minded colleagues with a request to consider, if not ideal, a plan promoted by the Prime Minister, which would enable him to achieve the long-awaited goal of withdrawing Britain from the EU.

Tomorrow, Theresa May will give an important speech on the topic of Brexit tomorrow.

Today, it is necessary to follow the speech of former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, who will present his own concept of exit from the EU to party members.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in October 2018. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minute (Daily)

Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

Previous review from 08/27/2018 15:25 UTC + 3.

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Today, October 1, 2018, the GBP / USD movement is in the range of:

-> resistance level of 1.3149 (lower limit of ISL 38.2 balance zone of the fork of an operational scale Minute);

-> support level of 1.2949 (upper limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line pitchfork operating scale Minor);

The direction of the breakdown of which will determine the further development trend of the movement of the currency instrument in October 2018

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The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3149 (ISL 38.2 Minute)

-> the development of the GBP / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.3149; 1.3310; 1.3480) of the Minute operating scale with a perspective (after the breakdown of ISL 61.8 Minute - resistance level of 1.3480) achieve the initial SSL line (1.3740) for the operating scale Minor.

Details are shown on the animated graph.

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The prospect of the development of a downward movement (sell).

The breakdown of the support level of 1.2949 (crossing the upper borders of the 1 / 2 ML channels of the operational scale forks; Minor and Minute)

-> the development of the GBP / USD movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line Minute channel (1.2949; 1.2830; 1.2710), and in the case of breakdown of the lower limit (1.2710) of this channel and updating of the local minimum of 1.2661, it will be possible to achieve the goals

-> 1/2 Median Line Minor (1.2570); the upper limit of the ISL 38.2 (1.2255) balance zone of the pitchfork of the operational scale Minor; the lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minor (1.2200).

Details are shown at the animated graphics.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions in the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 2nd of October. The trading system "Regression channels". Boris Johnson may take the post of Theresa May

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -102.0403

The British pound sterling also continues to fall in price, and interesting news continues to come from the UK. First, an anonymous source from the Conservative Party of Great Britain said that Boris Johnson could postpone Brexit talks for at least six months if he became prime minister. By itself, the interpretation of "if you become prime minister" is alarming. In essence, this means that if May is overthrown, the new prime minister is already selected. And since such conversations take place, it means that the option with the resignation of May is not an empty phrase. At the same time, experts calculated how much Brexit UK currently costs. In a week, the country's economy loses about 500 million pounds, and yet the country has not even officially left the EU. Also, research shows that the UK is now the slowest-growing of developed countries. In principle, this is logical, given all the political and economic perturbations in Britain. However, what will happen after March 2019? What will happen if the "deal" with the EU does not take place? Most likely, the economic situation will worsen even more. And in this section, it becomes clear that there will be no fundamental support from the UK for the pound in the coming months.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its downward movement after a slight correction to the moving average. The first target of 1.3000 is almost completed; if it is overcome, the next target for short positions will be Murray's "4/8" level - 1.2939.

It is recommended to open buy positions not earlier than traders overcome the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending and the long positions with the target of 1.3184 will become relevant.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 2nd of October. The trading system "Regression channels". There is no important news, but the dollar is still

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -109.4216

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, October 2, continues the downward movement as if nothing had happened. Yesterday was not remarkable in terms of macroeconomic statistics. All published reports had little impact on the market. Nevertheless, today since the morning, the dollar is again in high demand. Thus, from a technical point of view, the new downtrend continues, and the indicator Heikin Ashi clearly signals the absence of any hints of a correction. Today, the only remarkable event of the day will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. However, what can he say about the new monetary policy after the comments at the Fed meeting? Most likely nothing. But traders are not recommended to lose sight of this event. Perhaps, there will be a new information on the topic of a trade war, although this is also not very likely. Thus, most likely, we will not receive any important and new information today, but the US currency is not required now. After the results of the Fed meeting, the dollar continues to be actively strengthened, and the correction should be determined today by turning Heikin Ashi to the top. The calendar of macroeconomic events in the eurozone today is empty.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1536

S2 - 1,1475

S3 - 1.1414

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1597

R2 - 1.1658

R3 - 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move down. Therefore, it is now recommended to continue to remain in shorts with a view to 1.1536. The next target will be the level of 1.1475, and the turn of Heikin Ashi to the top will indicate the turn of the upward correction.

Long positions will become relevant only after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the uptrend will resume, and the first target for the long positions will be 1.1719.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US-Canada treaty gives markets optimism

The conclusion of a new USMCA trade agreement between the United States and Canada has noticeably reduced tensions on world markets, since one uncertainty factor has decreased, and many investors have interpreted this news as a likely model for reaching agreements between the States and China.

The foreign exchange market reacted to this news with a sharp increase in the Canadian dollar rate, as well as a rise in the Mexican currency against the US dollar. The stock market in America also added markedly. Three major stock indexes opened with a gap up and closed in positive territory.

Good support was also received on Monday by commodity currencies supported by the next rise in crude oil prices due to the expectation of the entry into force of new US sanctions against Iran. This, of course, as already mentioned, the Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble. If the growth drivers of the "Canadians" are pretty clear, the strengthening of the Russian currency occurs, despite the continuing sale of government bonds (OFZ) by non-residents. This can be explained only by the likely increase in purchases of government bonds by residents, the oil rally, and some attenuation of tension from the upcoming new US sanctions against Russia. Against this background, it is likely that the rate of the Russian currency may rise to the level of 64.00 rubles per dollar, or even higher to 62.00 rubles.

Today, the RBA expectedly left interest rates unchanged. In the resolution of the bank, nothing particularly new appeared. The regulator still as a whole positively assesses the situation in the economy and the labor market, which is a supporting factor for the Australian currency. But at the same time, it explains the decision not to raise the stakes by a factor of uncertainty against the background of the trade war between the States and China.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that by the end of this year, one should not expect an increase in interest rates in Australia, which means their next rise in the US and the factor of the trade war between Washington and Beijing will put pressure on the Australian dollar in the future.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading below the level of 1.1565. The pair may continue the local decline to our yesterday's target of 1.1525, as well as even lower to 1.1500, while it will be held below 1.1565.

The currency pair USD / JPY is trading below the level of 114.00, but above the mark of 113.85. From a technical point of view, the pair is highly overbought, and any increase in tension in the world can push it down again. If the price falls below 113.85, the pair may fall to 113.00.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 2, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress (recent bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Another bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, evident bearish momentum is being demonstrated on the daily chart. Recent bearish movement is currently taking place towards 1.1520 (the lower limit of the consolidation range).

As for the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the EUR/USD pair should be able to push below 1.1520. First bearish target would be located around 1.1420.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.1520-1.1750) if no strong bearish pressure is applied against 1.1520.

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Global macro overview for 02/10/2018

The PMI index for the construction sector in the UK fell to 52.1 points against the forecasts for maintaining the value from the previous period (52.9 points). This sector is of secondary importance to the British economy, therefore this information does not have a visible impact on the market yet.

On a yearly basis, the PPI inflation in the Eurozone rose to 4.2% against a drop forecast from 4.0% up to 3.8%. On the monthly basis, the PPI inflation amounted to 0.3 (a fall forecast from 0.4% to 0.2%). Good information does not stop the current fall in EUR / USD (-0.6%), approaching 1.1510.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. EUR / USD is testing the bottom band of consolidation at 1.1510, as EUR is under pressure through Italian budget problems. Breaking us open before the repetition of the August scenario after the "Turkish crisis" - a repetition as to the scale, but not the dynamics of the movement. The threat of an avalanche of stop-loss is lower, because in recent days the market has been massively reducing long positions, so investors' involvement is now lighter. Nevertheless, breaking the support will give reason to intensify the sale and the road to the exit to 1,1440 will open (then high of August 13). To save EUR (and to put embarrassment to sellers), it is necessary to go over 1,1560 at the end of the day. However, the subject of Italy remains in the foreground and will weigh on EUR.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 2, 2018

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On September 13, the GBP/USD pair was testing the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090. Since then, the pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

However, On H4 chart, the market failed to maintain its uptrend within the depicted bullish channel on H4 chart. The lower limit of the depicted channel (which came to meet the GBP/USD pair around 1.3190) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand.

Therefore, the GBP/USD short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci level) and 1.2940 (recent demand level).

As anticipated, the price level of 1.3190 (the backside of the broken bullish channel) offered significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry which is running in profits till now.

On the other hand, regarding the price levels (1.3010-1.3090) corresponding to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Currently, these price levels turned to become supply levels to be watched for bearish price action on retesting.

The current bearish decline below 1.3010 (50% Fibo level) should be defended to pursue towards lower bearish targets.

Hence, the GBP/USD pair would have short-term bearish target around 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken daily downtrend and a prominent H4 demand zone) and possibly around 1.2845 if enough bearish pressure is demonstrated.

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Pound draws historical parallels

The unexpectedly strong US dollar and the unfavorable political landscape of Britain continue to push GBP / USD quotes towards the psychologically important mark of 1.3. The Fed's confidence in the need to raise the federal funds rate to 3.5% by the end of 2019 lent strength to the bears in the analyzed pair, and historical parallels about the Conservative Party congress do not allow the bulls to take advantage of positive macroeconomic statistics. In 2016, Theresa May's argument about hard Brexit accelerated the peak of the pound in the direction of the minimum since 1985, and doubts about the Prime Minister's ability to hold power sent the sterling to a monthly bottom in 2017.

After Theresa May at the Austrian EU summit, said that relations between London and Brussels were stalled, the currency of Albion was replaced. She also forgot about strong GDP for May-July, average wages, inflation, and retail sales. Yes, the timing of the increase in the repo rate has shifted from 2020 to autumn 2019, but as long as politics reigns, the economy is resting. Talk about the lack of agreement between Britain and the EU continues to bend the pound to the ground. According to the BMO Financial Group, GBP / USD will fall to 1.24 and to 1.2 within three and six months amid growing investor fears due to the lack of a deal.

Additional pressure on sterling was put on the revision of GDP for the second quarter downward from 1.3% to 1.2% y / y, as well as a factor in the reduction of investments by British companies in April-June due to the uncertainty around Brexit. However, fans of the pound should not be disappointed about this, because, judging by GDP and retail sales, Misty Albion began the third quarter on a positive note. And if the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector confirm this, the bulls on GBP / USD can get support. Nevertheless, the increased sensitivity of the sterling to the headlines of the media about Brexit suggests a temporary advantage from macroeconomic statistics.

The dynamics of business activity and GDP of Britain

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Of course, the rising from the ashes of the US dollar plays a significant role in the peak of the analyzed pair. The derivatives market gives only a 5% chance of four Fed rate hikes in 2019. The indicator has room to grow, so it's premature to say that the factor of monetary restriction has already been included in the quotes related to the "American" currency pairs. At the same time, the indices of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector of China approached the critical level of 50, which signals a serious slowdown in the economy of the Middle Kingdom under the influence of trade wars. The belief that this will not happen and China will be able to support the developing countries and the world economy as a whole, contributed to the withdrawal of the USD index from the August highs.

Technically, after reaching a target of 88.6% for the Bat pattern, a rollback occurs in the direction of 38.2% and 50% of the AD wave. If the bulls manage to keep the GBP / USD quotes within the ascending trading channel, their belief in restoring the long-term uptrend will not be lost.

GBP / USD, the daily graph

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Bitcoin analysis for October 02, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price broke intraday upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found potential ending of the upward correction (abc zig-zag), which is another sign of weakness. I expect lower price and potential testing of $6.294 (take profit 1) and $6.075 (take profit 2). Watch for selling opportunities.

Support/Resistance

$6.560 – Intraday resistance

$6.442– Intraday support

$6.294 – Objective target 1

$6.075 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR and GBP: fundamental data for the Eurozone provided temporary support for the euro

Data on unemployment in the eurozone slightly supported the European currency, which managed to return to daily highs, unsuccessfully trying to update them. However, a weak report on the production sphere did not allow buyers to build a larger upward correctional wave.

Basic data

According to the statistics agency of the EU, the unemployment rate in the euro zone fell in August of this year. This happened due to the gradual recovery of the eurozone economy in the 3rd quarter of this year, which leads to the creation of new jobs.

Thus, the number of unemployed in the eurozone in August 2018 decreased by 102,000 compared with July, while the unemployment rate was 8.1% versus 8.2% in the previous month.

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The eurozone economy is expected to continue its growth amid a slowdown in exports due to good and steady growth in retail sales and accelerated wage growth.

Today, a report was issued in which the forecast for the manufacturing sector for the next year in Germany was lowered. According to a survey of industrial companies, the uncertainty of the future of international trade was the main reason for the revision of expectations. According to the IHS Markit, the final PMI purchasing managers index for the German manufacturing sector in September of this year fell to 53.7 points, fully coinciding with economists' forecasts.

Given the decline in the index of the manufacturing sector in Germany, which is the flagship of the European economy, it is not surprising that the index of purchasing managers for the manufacturing sector of the eurozone also dropped.

According to the IHS Markit, the purchasing managers index for the Eurozone production sector in September dropped to 53.2 points from 54.6 points in August. Economists had expected the index to decline to the level of 53.3 points. Let me remind you that, despite the slowdown in activity, the value above 50 points still indicates its growth.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast.

The pressure on the euro fell slightly, allowing buyers to reach the resistance area of 1.1615. However, I expect that larger sellers will manifest themselves after building the upper boundary of the downward channel, which, in my opinion, will take place in the resistance area of 1.1650. In this regard, it is best to return to short positions after the correction from a maximum of 1.1630 and 1.1650.

Brexit will continue to put pressure on the pound

The British pound rose slightly against the US dollar, and the sellers did not reach the lows of last week after data that consumer lending on credit cards in the UK rose in August, which will necessarily lead to higher costs and support economic growth rates, which are now in the UK remains at an extremely low level.

According to the Bank of England, net lending on credit cards in August rose to 1.1 billion pounds, compared to 0.8 billion pounds in July. Economists had expected unsecured lending to reach 1.4 billion pounds. The number of approved mortgage loans in August increased compared with July, to 66,440.

It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the further prospects for the growth of the pound from the current attractive support levels remain rather fragile.

Until then, while confidence in the conclusion of an agreement on Brexit does not grow, talking about the end of the bearish trend in the British pound will not be entirely correct. Even if it is possible to agree on the terms of the transaction, it will still have to be approved by the parliament, where it is unlikely that enough votes will be gained for its approval.

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on October 1. Correction is necessary for further fall.

To open long positions on EUR / USD you need:

Buyers formed a false breakdown at 1.1585, which I drew attention to in my morning review, which led to an upward correction in the euro in the morning and resistance update of 1.1615. For the second half of the day, customers need to retest this area, which may lead to the formation of a new upward wave in the euro and an update of the maximum of 1.1648, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the euro, long positions can now be considered again on a rebound from 1.1575.

To open short positions on EUR / USD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown at 1.1615 is still holding back buyers of the euro. The longer the trade will be conducted under 1.1615, the stronger the pressure on the euro will increase. The main task of sellers in the afternoon will be a return to the support level of 1.1577, where I recommend fixing the profits. If EUR / USD rises above the resistance level of 1.1615, short positions can be considered after updating the 50-day moving average or rebound from the level of 1.1648.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average and 50-day average are directed down, which indicates a continued decline in the euro in the short term. However, the return of the price on the 30-day average indicates the likelihood of an upward correction.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands is falling against the background of the upward correction of the euro, which can play in favor of the sellers.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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USD / CAD: Canada signs an agreement with the United States and Mexico. Italy's decision puts pressure on the euro

The European currency continues to decline in tandem with the US dollar after increasing disagreements between EU representatives and Italian authorities. Let me remind you that last week, a decision was taken by the Italian government, according to which the target budget deficit was raised to 2.4%, which is contrary to EU rules.

Canada signs deal with US and Mexico

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar rose strongly against the US dollar after it became known at the weekend that Canada and the United States reached a trade agreement. Representatives of the US authorities said that the United States, Canada, and Mexico have agreed on an agreement that will replace the Nafta. The new version of Nafta will be called USMCA.

Thus, Canada's accession to the deal concluded between the US and Mexico at the end of August of this year avoided breaking the agreement and threats from the US President to introduce trade duties.

So far, the representative of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, Chrystia Freeland, has not provided any comments on the course of the negotiations. There are no specifics from the representatives of the White House administration.

As for the technical picture of the USD / CAD currency pair, a further decline in the trading instrument will be constrained by large support levels of 1.2770 and 1.2720, to which sellers are now striving. However, now, we can safely speak about the persistence of a strong uptrend of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, which could be broken in the event of a breakdown of the agreement.

Basic data

Good data on US consumer spending growth supported the dollar on Friday afternoon. According to the US Department of Commerce, personal spending by consumers in August of this year rose by 0.3% compared with July.

Personal income also increased by 0.3%. Economists had forecast an increase in personal income in the United States in August by 0.4% and an increase in spending by 0.3%. A good increase in US consumer spending will have a positive impact on economic growth rates, which may exceed 4.0% in the 3rd quarter of this year.

Chicago business indicator fell in September due to a serious reduction in new orders and production. According to MNI Indicators, Chicago PMI Purchasing Managers Index in September of this year fell to 60.4 points from 63.3 points in August, while economists had expected that in September, the figure would be equal to 62.6 points.

The growth rate of orders fell to a minimum in the last five months, while production fell to a 6-month low. However, it should be recalled that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

According to the University of Michigan, the final consumer sentiment index in the United States in September 2018 rose to 100.1 points from 96.2 points in August. Economists had expected the indicator to rise to 100.8 points.

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The growth occurred against the background of a good economic performance of the country, as well as a healthy labor market, which makes consumers' confidence in a stable and even stronger future. The only concern was the problems with import duties.

Technical picture EUR / USD

The pressure on the euro, apparently, will slightly decrease, as the sellers need to build the upper limit of the downward channel, which, in my opinion, will take place in the resistance area of 1.1650. In this regard, in the absence of support from sellers after an attempt to break through this week's lows, it is best to return to short positions after correction from the highs of 1.1630 and 1.1650.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for October 1. Wave 4 takes on a classic look.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading on September 28, the GBP / USD currency pair dropped by another 45 percentage points and, thus, continues to build the wave c, 4. If this assumption is true, then the decline in quotations will continue today in the direction of the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% mark may lead to the completion of the construction of this wave and the transition of the pair to the construction of an upward wave 5 with targets located above the 33 figure.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2982 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

1.2908 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to build the expected wave c, 4. Thus, now I recommend to continue selling the pair with targets located near the levels of 1.2982 and 1.2908, which corresponds to 61.8% and 76.4% of Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of these marks may indicate the completion of wave 4, in which case, I recommend closing sales. There is no hint at the beginning of the construction of the ascending wave.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for October 1. Wave 4 takes on a very long look.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the Friday's trading, the EUR / USD currency pair lost another 40 percentage points more. Thus, the pair continues to remain within the proposed wave 4. If this is true, then in the near future, this wave will complete its construction, as it has already turned out to be very deep, and the entire trend segment, taking its beginning on August 15, takes the view of one of the correction triangles. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 2 will make it necessary to refine all wave markings.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1594 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1.1526 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1813 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to build wave 4 with targets near estimated levels of 1.1594 and 1.1526. Thus, I still recommend selling a pair with these goals. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of these marks will lead to the departure of quotes from the reached minimums and, based on the current wave marking, to the beginning of the construction of the wave 5 of the upward trend segment. A break of 1.1526 marks the transition of the pair to the construction of a downtrend trend and will require adjustments.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 02, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.3056 towards 1.2950. Now, the price is set at 1.2959. On the H4 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3056 and 1.3176. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.3000 and 1.2811 in coming days. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2979 to form a bullish channel. Besides, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.3056, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2979. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2979 towards 1.2906 and 1.2811 as targets.

In the H4 time frame:

However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2979, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2979. So, the market will decline further to 1.2906 in order to return to the first support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2811.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 02, 2018

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Overview:

As expected, the EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the zone of 1.1620 and 1.1559. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1620 to 1.1500 which coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci on the daily chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1559 and 1.1620. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.1620 and 1.1559; because the price is in a bearish channel now. The RSI starts signaling a downward trend. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1559 with the first target at 1.1422 and further to 1.1360 in order to test the daily support. If the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the daily support at 1.1559, the market will decline further to 1.1422 to approach support 2 today. However, the price spot of 1.1620 and 1.1559 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1620 is not breached.

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Analysis of Gold for October 02, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,194.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the larger downward correction (regular flat), which is a sign that buying positions are favorable. I also found the breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the pullbacks. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,203.70 and at the price of $1,209.00.

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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AUD/USD analysis for October 02, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 0.7171. According to the H1 time – frame, I found the end of the upward correction (irregular type 2) in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found the breakout of the key support trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 0.7143 and at the price of 0.7086.

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 02/10/2018

The Euro is lower across the board and it attracts risk aversion, because problems with the budget of Italy attract attention, especially with comments that Italy would be better with its own currency. Until investors find a better topic for discussion, we may have to wait for a temporary period of turbulence.

The buzz around the Italian budget is starting to get louder with lower-level officials who are looking for five minutes of fame. Claudio Borghi, the eurosceptic head of the Italian budget committee, said Italy would deal with budget problems if it had its own currency. At that time, the country could decide on a deficit of 3.1% GDP. Let me just remind you that the 2.4% approved in the project for the next year GDP already generates Brussels indignation, especially that it concerns a country with a public debt of 131.8% GDP. A detailed draft budget is to be presented to the European Commission on October 15, which gives plenty of time for speculation and shocking comments. The reaction of rating agencies is an additional risk. Yields of 10-year Italian bonds are up to 3.40% and improve 4-year records.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. EUR / USD broke the bottom band of consolidation, which was in force for most of the holiday. How important this zone is, was seen in August during the "Turkish crisis", when a successful breakthrough triggered avalanche drops to 1.13. Now, the slump should not be so strong, but we face the risk of temporary pitting. Currently, the pair trades at the support at the level of 1.1525 in oversold market conditions. Nevertheless, the weak and negative momentum is still indicating a possible slide even lower, towards the next technical support at the level of 1.1500.

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Trading plan for 02/10/2018

The session in Asia was unchanged with the help of a holiday in China and India. The RBA's decision did not bring any surprises. In general, the dollar is strengthening against pressure on risky currencies due to disturbing comments from Italy.

Just before the start of trading in Europe, the sale of risk currencies is intensifying. The above-mentioned AUD / USD fell under 0.72, NZD / USD goes down at 0.66, they lose stronger NOK and SEK.

EUR / USD fell to 1.1540 after a comment by Claudio Borghi. Eurosceptic head of the Italian budget committee said that Italy would deal with budget problems if they had their own currency. At that time, the country could decide on a deficit of 3.1 percent.

On the stock market, the Japanese Nikkei225 is slightly below the line.

Rising oil prices are not slowing down and WTI is now gaining 0.6 % up to 75.6 USD / b, while Brent increases by 0.1% a little over 85 USD / b. The prospect of supply disruption by the sanctions imposed on Iran is pulling up prices, and indirectly the trilateral US / Mexico / Canada trade agreement also indirectly helps.

On Tuesday, the 2nd of October, the most important event will be the speech of Fed chairman, J. Powell, on the prospects of employment and inflation in the US. Less important will be the speeches of Quarles and Kaplan from the Fed, Ohlsson from Riksbank, Haldane from BoE and Villeroy from the ECB. During the day, PPI inflation readings are expected in the euro area, PMI for the construction sector in the UK and Hungary's foreign trade balance.

AUD/USD analysis for 02/10/2018:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the cash rate at 1.50% as expected. The message leaves the current language describing the economy with forecasts of GDP growth above 3%. in 2018 and 2019. Consumer spending remains a source of uncertainty due to the high level of indebtedness with weak wage growth. The RBA also changed the inflation forecast in 2018 from 1.75%. up to 1.50% due to one-off price depressing factors in the third quarter of AUD / USD was stable after the decision at 0.7230.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has spiked down from the horizontal consolidation zone and currently is testing the technical support at the level of 0.7195. Nevertheless, this might not be the end of the down move, so the nearest technical supports are seen at the levels of 0.7187, 0.7165 and 0.7157. Negative and weak momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for 02/10/2018

The Prime Minister of Malta, Joseph Muscat, used his opportunity to speak at the UN to comment on the potential of Blockchain and cryptocurrencies, calling them an unavoidable part of the digital future.In a speech during a general debate at the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly, Muscat raised the subject of the Malta plan to create the "Blockchain Island". He said that his nation is the first jurisdiction in the world to regulate technology that "existed in a legal vacuum before". In June, the Maltese parliament adopted three draft laws on cryptocurrencies, Blockchain technology and distributed register technology (DLT). Since then, many companies focusing on cryptocurrencies have moved to the island, and some have agreed to cooperate with the Malta stock exchange.

In his speech, which had previously addressed issues such as immigration, Muscat continued to be optimistic about technology: "Blockchain makes cryptocurrency an inevitable future of money - more transparent because it helps to distinguish good companies from bad companies" - he said.

In conclusion, the prime minister said that the distributed registry technology also has the potential to give patients "real ownership" of their medical records, makes it possible to check whether humanitarian aid reaches the intended goal and helps to increase the transparency of corporations and governments.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still moving in a horizontal cycle between two levels: the support at the level of $6,413 and resistance at the level of $6,738. Moreover, the price is hovering around the weekly pivot as well. The momentum is neutral, but the market conditions are now overbought so another spike down might occur anytime now.

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 2, 2018

Gold price made a higher low yesterday relative to the $1,180 low made last week. Price is now challenging the short-term bearish channel upper boundary. Breaking above $1,195 would be a bullish sign. However, bulls have lots of work to do as price remains inside the long-term bearish channel.

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Red lines - short-term bearish channel

Green lines - long-term bearish channel

Gold price is trying to start a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Resistance is here at $1,193-95 and next at $1,197-$1,200. Support is at $1,184. Breaking below $1,184 will open the way for a move towards $1,177-73. If bulls manage to break above the $1,200 level, we could see a sharp move towards $1,220.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 2, 2018

EUR/USD has made new lows as expected. Price has reached near 1.15 and there is still some chances we see a move below 1.15. However, it is still too early to open short positions.

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Red line - major resistance

Orange dots - medium strength resistance

Black dots - maximum strength support

EUR/USD is approaching the major support at 1.1470-1.1480. Price got rejected yesterday at 1.1620-1.1630 resistance and fell to new lows. We pointed out very clearly yesterday that bulls would need to break above 1.1620-1.1630 in order for them to regain control of the short-term trend. Trend remains bearish. Short-term resistance is at 1.1580. Breaking and closing above this level would be a bullish sign but not a reversal sign. Only a close above 1.1630 would be considered a reversal sign and that an important low is in.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Oct 02/2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as the eurozone's PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change. The economic calendar lacks any reports from US today. So amid the empty economic calendar, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1635

Strong Resistance: 1.1628

Original Resistance: 1.1617

Inner Sell Area: 1.1606

Target Inner Area: 1.1578

Inner Buy Area: 1.1550

Original Support: 1.1539

Strong Support: 1.1528

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1521

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Oct 02/2018

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In Asia, Japan will release a few economic reports such as Consumer Confidence Index, 10-y Bond Auction, and Monetary Base y/y. The US today will not release any economic data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 114.49

Resistance. 2: 114.27

Resistance. 1: 114.05

Support. 1: 113.76

Support. 2: 113.54

Support. 3: 113.32

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 1, 2018

Bitcoin has been consolidating and correcting itself in the volatile market situation which is being observed currently. The price has been residing at the edge of $6,500 area from where further correction is expected before pushing higher at the current market structure. The Kumo Cloud resistance has widened up quite well which is expected to provide a strong resistance for the price to push higher with a target towards $8,000 in the future. Meanwhile, the price is expected to stall and proceed quite slowly towards $7,000-7,200 area after which the price is expected to push higher impulsively towards $8,000 area. As the price remains above $6,000-6,500 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 6,500, 6,000

RESISTANCE: 7,500, 8,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 2, 2018

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We have seen a second test of important support at 1.7484 and again this support has proven its strength and protected the downside. We continue for the the underlying uptrend to reassert itself, by a break above minor resistance at 1.7594 and more importantly by a break above 1.7637 confirming that the correction from the 1.7826 peak has completed and the next impulsive rally towards 1.8030 is developing and longer term even more upside towards 1.8369 should be seen.

R3: 1.7732

R2: 1.7704

R1: 1.7636

Pivot: 1.7594

S1: 1.7528

S2: 1.7484

S3: 1.7420

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7500 and we will place our stop at 1.7400. Upon a break above 1.7637 we will raise our stop to 1.7475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 2, 2018

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We have seen a nice rally in EUR/JPY of the corrective low at 131.18. However, we still need a break above minor resistance at 132.52 to confirm that blue wave (4) has completed and blue wave (5) to 134.04 is developing.

Short-term support is seen at 131.70 and if broken then just below at 131.57. Ideally the support-zone between 131.57 - 131.70 will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 132.52 confirming the next impulsive rally towards 134.04.

R3: 133.13

R2: 132.52

R1: 132.25

Pivot: 131.97

S1: 131.70

S2: 131.57

S3: 131.43

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.11 with our stop placed at 130.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 131.70 or upon a break above 132.52 and place your stop at 130.85.

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EUR/USD. 1 October. Results of the day. The euro did not receive support from the news, even given the technical predisposition

4 hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 91п – 62п – 72п – 119п – 81п.

The average amplitude over the past 5 days: 85P (83P).

The first trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was completely sideways. And this is not bad for the European currency. We expected an upward correction on Friday, but it did not start either on Friday or Monday. The most that the bulls have enough power to do so is to stop the fall. On Monday in Europe, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was published, which fell by 0.1 points to 53.2 compared to the previous month. Also published was the unemployment rate, which also fell to 8.1%. However, as we can see, these news did not provide any special support to the European currency. Even the seemingly optimistic unemployment rate is actually quite high. Thus, even its decline was not the basis for the purchase of the European currency. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector was also weaker than expected, but still remains very strong in absolute terms. In general, all these macroeconomic reports did not have the necessary degree of importance to move the market from a dead point, as we wrote in the morning. Thus, traders can either wait for new strong information or for the actions of major investors, which can indicate the direction of the pair's movement for the next few days. It is noteworthy that the GBP/USD pair started an upward correction, but the euro did not. Thus, we establish a fact: in the current conditions, the euro is in low demand.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a side correction, which you can safely skip. There is no upward movement, although the MACD has turned up. Thus, the pair remain relevant short positions with the target level of support at 1,1511.

Long positions formally became relevant due to the MACD reversal upwards, but with minimum lots. Given the strong oversold indicator, you should wait for confirmation of the beginning of the upward correction with the help of other indicators.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. 1 October. Results of the day. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector helped the pound

4 hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 104п – 99п – 79п – 106p – 90п.

The average amplitude over the last 5 days: 96п (122 pips).

The British pound sterling on Monday, October 1, in contrast to the euro adjusted to the critical line Kijun-sen. Largely due to the higher value of the index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector than what traders expected to see. In the morning we wrote that the British IDA can cause a tangible reaction in the market. And it happened. Now the Kijun-sen line has been worked out, and the pair can resume the downward movement. Although from a fundamental point of view, there are no new good reasons for this. However, at the moment we can say that the uptrend is broken, which means that higher prospects are exactly the one that is going down. As for Brexit, the British Minister for issues related to the withdrawal from the EU, Dominic Raab believes that it is better to leave the EU without any "deal" than to remain tied to the bloc through a single market or customs zone. Adding to this opinion all the statements of Theresa May, Michel Barnier and other politicians, it turns out that there is no consensus on what Brexit should be. Moreover, there is no plan by which a "divorce" could be carried out either. The European Union has not provided its version of Brexit, but now we can assume that even if it does, it will be rejected by London. Thus, there was no clarity on this issue, and there will be no further pressure on the pound sterling in the medium term.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair has adjusted to the Kijun-sen line. The price rebound from this line can be interpreted as a signal to selling with the target level of 1.2973. A reversal of the MACD indicator downwards can confirm the completion of the round of the correction movement.

Buy orders will become relevant if traders overcome the Kijun-sen line. Then the pair risks to return to the uptrend with the first target of 1.3160. However, there are no fundamental grounds for this yet.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump won an important victory - concluded a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico

Trump won an important victory - concluded a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico

At the last moment, one day before the expiration of the NAFTA agreement, the representatives of the USA and Canada managed to reach an agreement. A new trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada was formed - the USMCA agreement (by the names of the participating countries).

Trump managed to get from Canada concessions on access to the Canadian dairy market for US farmers, as well as, for car manufacturers and on the protection of intellectual property.

This is a very important success for Trump - before the by-election to Congress in November, against the backdrop of the extremely tough US-China trade war unleashed by Trump. Just a week ago, the United States introduced duties for 200 billion dollars of goods from China in response to 60 billion dollars of goods from the United States.

Trump is critical that Republicans win in November and retain a majority in the lower house of Congress. Otherwise, Trump will become a "lame duck" two years before the US presidential election and the mood of voters is determined by the economy.

The US-Canada-Mexico market is huge, amounting to $ 1 trillion of Import-exports per year.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of USD / JPY pair for the week of October 1

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

Since the end of March, a rising wave is formed. In the daytime wave, the plot forms the final part (C) of the ascending zigzag which has a pronounced pulse form.

The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The July 19th wave formed in the larger model has the wrong kind of correction. The structure lacks the final part (C). Given the size of the lengthening of the middle part (B), the wave will end at the lowest possible levels.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The bullish wave of August 21 reached the lower boundary of a large resistance zone.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the coming days, volatility is expected to increase with a price pullback. Yet, there may be risks because of the small potential for lowering sales. In the area of the calculation zone, it is recommended to monitor the emerging signals for entering long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 113.90 / 114.40

Support zones:

- 112.10 / 111.60

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: the downward trend is in force, but the uncertainty of bears is alarming

The euro-dollar pair today clings to the 16th figure, leaving no hope for the recovery of the upward trend. Last week, the bulls of the pair received several tangible blows: among them - the slowdown in core inflation in the eurozone and the "hawkish" Fed meeting. In addition, the European currency was under pressure from the Italian events against the backdrop of uncertain prospects for Brexit. This fundamental background returned the pair to the mid-15th figure, breaking the support level of 1.1660.

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Despite the succession of such negative factors, today's trading day did not become a continuation of the "downward rally" of the EUR/USD pair. On the contrary, the bears met quite active resistance of the bulls, and the pair is forced to win back every point of decline, followed by a price rollback. And although the general mood of the pair remains bearish, the slowdown in the decline should alert the supporters of short positions, especially since it is necessary to gain a foothold under the 1.1520 mark for a clear dominance of the pair. Given today's dynamics, we can conclude that this task is not simple: the bulls are not going "without a fight" to surrender their positions, especially against the background of ambiguous fundamental background.

First, emotions in Italy have subsided. This was to be expected, as Rome did not exceed the budget deficit allowed by Brussels (3%), but only failed to meet the expectations of economists and experts. Despite the fact that Italian politicians promised to revise their social programs in order not to "inflate" the budget, de facto this did not happen: the budget was adopted with a deficit of 2.4% of GDP. By and large, nothing catastrophic happened, it was just that the market was annoyed by the actions of the Italian populists, who, on the one hand, carry out their election program (increasing pensions, social payments and cutting taxes), but, on the other hand, increase the national debt of the country and going along Greece, which a few years ago was a real "headache" for the ECB.

However, this is a problem of relatively distant prospects, and the market lives mainly today, so today the influence of this factor has significantly decreased. It should also be noted here that the Italian Finance Minister did not resign (although he voiced such threats) – which means that the issue of the scandalous budget did not turn into a political crisis, which would significantly aggravate the fundamental picture of the euro-dollar pair.

Brexit unexpectedly rendered indirect support to the European currency today. In the morning, the market received very encouraging information: London is ready to compromise on the Irish border. Let me remind you that this is the most problematic issue, which, in fact, slows down the entire negotiation process. If the parties find a common denominator on this issue, the probability of a deal in many ways (I would even say as much as possible) will increase.

The pound is already cautiously reacting to such news, since on the eve of the informal EU summit in Salzburg, such news appeared regularly – but the positions of the top officials offset all the preliminary agreements. Therefore, the pound-dollar pair literally entered the 31st figure for a few hours, but then returned to its previous positions. The hopes of reaching a compromise, at least for now, seem too elusive. The European currency also showed only short-term growth, after which the pressure of the EUR/USD bears increased.

Thus, all attempts to reverse the downward movement have so far failed. In turn, bears are uncertainly in control of the situation and sometimes "allow" opponents to return the price to the framework of the 16th figure. Although the EUR/USD bears have a significant trump card. After the Federal Reserve's September meeting, traders are almost entirely confident that the interest rate will be increased again in December – and this fact pushes the dollar index up (at the moment the figure is at the level of 94.88 – a two-week high). The European currency can not oppose this fact a similar argument: the latest data on inflation in the euro area make us doubt the determination of the ECB members. Such a correlation can lead the pair to the nearest, strongest support level of 1.1520 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart, which coincides with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator).

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If bears push this level, the next "stop" will be at 1.1450 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart). So far, the bears are firm enough to take every step in the development of a new price territory – but if the dollar receives support from the Fed members (who act almost every day this week) or from Non Farms (whose release is scheduled for Friday), the EUR/USD pair will come to the above price points quickly enough.

The European currency can only hope for a change in the external fundamental background – primarily in the context of the settlement of the US-China trade conflict (as an alternative – a breakthrough in the negotiations on Brexit). Otherwise, the euro has a chance to lose the positions it won in September.

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