Analysis of Silver for April 18, 2017

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Recently, the Silver has been trading sideways at the price of 18.40. According to the 1H time frame, I found that price has broken the upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of 18.25 and at the price of 17.95.

Resistance levels:

R1: 18.40

R2: 18.43

R3: 18.46

Support levels:

S1: 18.35

S2: 18.33

S3: 18.30

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 18, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair simply consolidated on April 17, 2017. A breakout to the downside is anticipated this week, which would most probably be in favor of bears. However, this does not rule out possibilities of a bullish effort this week.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair did nothing yesterday. The price is still consolidating, just as it did last week. The consolidation is supposed to continue this week until there is a breakout, which would either take the price above the resistance level at 1.0100 or below the support level at 1.0000. A movement below the support level at 1.0000 would require a strong selling pressure.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has made further bullish attempt this week, now testing the distribution territory at 1.2600. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the price may eventually go above that distribution territory, as it targets other distribution territories at 1.2650 and 1.2700, which are the targets for this week.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument bounced upwards in the context of a downtrend. The upwards bounce is shallow and it is supposed to be a good opportunity to sell short when the price rises briefly in the context of a downtrend. That kind of "selling short" may bring better prices as the demand levels at 108.50 and 108.00 are tested again.

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EUR/JPY: What has happened to the EUR/JPY is quite similar to what has happened to the USD/JPY. The market has bounced upwards (nothing significant) in the context of a downtrend, but bears would push the market downwards again, as it goes towards the demand zones at 115.00, 114.50 and 114.00.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 18, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 109.07 and reached my first target. According to the 1H time frame, I found hidden bullish divergence in the background, which is a good sign for further upward movements. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The next upward target is set at the price of 109.37.

Resistance levels:

R1: 109.09

R2: 109.17

R3: 109.30

Support levels:

S1: 108.85

S2: 108.75

S3: 108.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair dropped from the level of 0.7075 towards 0.7004 since last week. The trend is still set below the 0.7075 level. The resistance of the NZD/USD pair is seen at the levels of 0.7075 and 0.7132. The first resistance and second one are seen at the levels of 0.7075 and 0.7132 respectively. The NZD/USD pair is still moving in a downtrend channel for a while. The price spot of 0.7075 remains a significant resistance area. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside, and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below the spot of 0.7075 - 0.7004, sell below 0.7075 - 0.7004 with the first target at 0.6969 in order to test last week's bottom. Besides, it should be noted that support 1 is seen at the level of 0.6969 which coincides with the double bottom in the one-hour time frame. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6969, the market will decline further to 0.6825 in order to test the weekly support 2. However, the stop loss should be set above the level of 0.7132.
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Trading plan for 18/04/2017

Trading plan for 18/04/2017:

European indices start the new trading week in a mixed mood, the market does not clearly see the prevailing trend. German DAX and Spanish IBEX are gaining a little (0.2%), but the British FTSE 100 (-0.55%) is in decline at the time of writing. Investors returning to the market after the long Easter weekend have a lot of information and events to digest. The forthcoming presidential elections in France and the lack of relevant fundamentals will provoke a laziness, but be vigilant.

On Tuesday 18th of April, the event calendar is light in important economic releases. Nevertheless, market participants will keep an eye on the Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization Rate data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 18/04/2017:

The bunch of data from the US construction sector is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm and 01:15 pm GMT today. Global investors are generally expecting a good set of data, that will improve the economic sentiment in the US.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the 4H timeframe. The market keeps trading inside of the trading zone between the levels of 1.0569 - 1.0678 in a low volatility mode. Perhaps the data release will be a trigger for a sustained move in either direction. The market conditions are neutral but slightly biased to the upside.

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Market snapshot: Gold is consolidating the recent gains

After the impressive rally to the level of $1,295, the yellow metal is consolidating gains in overbought market conditions. The main reason behind the recent rally was the uncertain geopolitical situation in the world. If this tension and uncertainty persist, then the price of the yellow metal might reach the level of $1,336.

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Market snapshot: Crude Oil is in corrective cycle

Oil prices are now slipping from the highs at the level of $53.78 as the next technical support is seen at the level of $51.87 - 51.50 zones. Nevertheless, the uncertain geopolitical situation is still weighing on oil prices and in a case of further uncertainty or military escalation, the price might skyrocket towards the level of $54.92 and beyond in no time.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.0057. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.0057 (this level of 1.0057 coincides of the 50% Fibonacci retracement) to set around the price of 1.0040. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.0057 followed by 1.0086, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.0008. Besides, it should be noted that the pair is still in a bearish market as long as the price is holding below the level of 1.0075. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 1.0057 and 0.9960; for that we expect a range of 97 pips. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0057, the market will decline further to 1.0008. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9960 in order to form a new double bottom. On the other hand, the stop loss should be place above the 1.0057 level.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 18, 2017

The USD/CAD is in a position where I expect to see more downside toward 1.31 before a strong upward move toward 1.40. Although I cannot rule out that the move toward 1.40 has already started. Buying is preferred as long as price is above 1.30.

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Blue line - support trend line

The USD/CAD is trying to break above the 4 hour cloud resistance at 1.3360-1.3370. Short-term support is at 1.33. If support fails to hold we should expect the blue trend line support at 1.3250 to be tested. If broken expect USD/CAD to fall towards 1.31 where a longer-term support trend line is found.

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Blue line -support

Red line - resistance

As mentioned above, I cannot rule out that price will hold the blue trend line support at 1.3250 and start its next move up toward 1.40. However if the blue trend line breaks, I expect the red trend line support at 1.31 to hold and provide the power for the next bounce to 1.40.

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Global macro overview for 18/04/2017

Global macro overview for 18/04/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Meeting Minutes released overnight has revealed that economy made steady progress in the first quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, the RBA is still concerned about the risks associated with the housing market and labor market. The minutes showed, that despite the steady progress and some inflationary pressures the indicators of household spending have been weaker than expected and growth in household credit continued to outpace growth in household incomes. Regarding the labor market, the RBA pointed out a significant weakness in the labor market and rising underemployment and announced the need of permanent close monitoring of the labor market. In conclusion, after the last RBA decision to hold the interest rate at the level of 1.5% the bank might continue to seek ways to ensure stronger investment and hiring in the non-energy-related sectors.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The market is trading in oversold conditions, just below the Fibonacci cluster made of 38% and 50% retracements. The next support is at the level of 81.55, but the stronger support seems to be at the Fibonacci cluster of 61% and 50% retracements, between the levels of 80.28 - 81.08. No bullish divergence had occurred yet.

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Global macro overview for 18/04/2017

Global macro overview for 18/04/2017:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the Empire State Manufacturing Index data that were worse than market expectations. A closely watched gauge of New York area manufacturing weakened more than expected in April, from 16.4 points last month to 5.2 points in the reported month (the expectations were at the level of 15.2 points). Nevertheless, anything above zero indicates expansion in the state's manufacturing sector and April was the sixth consecutive positive reading in the index. The biggest drop for the reported month was logged in shipments and new orders. The prices-paid index improved, perhaps signaling rising inflationary pressures in the economy.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The pattern of a Double Bottom can be noticed at the level of 100.00, but the bullish camp is still not strong enough to break out above the level of 100.61 despite the oversold market conditions. It looks like the sideway price action will continue until one of the important levels is violated. Please mind the gap, again.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 18, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to post some further gains upward. The pair shows further upside potential after its upward breakout of a short-term declining trend line, which emerged on April 14. The relative strength index is supported by a rising trend line and is above its neutrality level at 50. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing support roles and maintain the upside bias.

As long as 108.50 holds on the downside, look for a further advance toward 109.50 and even 109.85 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 109.50 and the second one at 109.85. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 108.20, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 108.00. The pivot point is at 108.50.

Resistance levels: 109.50, 109.85, and 110.15

Support levels: 108.20, 108.00, and 107.35

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 18, 2017

The EUR/USD has recently made an important trend reversal and bounced from critical long-term support at 1.0570. If the pattern repeats itself relative to the latest two price actions which were big upward moves, then we should start seeing some important resistance levels broken and a new move towards 1.10 at least could start.

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Last week price showed reversal signs and EURUSD is trying to change short-term trend to bullish by breaking out above the 4-hour cloud resistance. Important resistance levels for the shortterm are at 1.07-1.0740-1.0770. Breaking above these levels will strengthen the bullish scenario. A break below 1.0570-1.06 will open the way for a push to new lows towards 1.03.

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Red line - long-term support trend line

Blue line- bullish scenario projection

Will EURUSD bounce again off the red trend line support? Price is also bouncing off cloud support, so we have confirmation that the 1.06-1.0570 area is an important support area. If the pattern repeats itself, we will see a gradual rise towards 1.10. I favor this scenario as long as we trade above the long-term support trend line.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 18, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair posted a rebound from 1.0005 (the low of April) and broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Additionally, the 20-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

On the economic data front, U.S. consumer prices fell 0.3% on month in March (vs. +0.0% expected, +0.1% in February), and retail sales were down 0.2% (vs. -0.1% expected, -0.3% in February). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey resulted in a general business conditions index of 5.2 for April, much lower than 15.0 expected and 16.4 in March. Meanwhile, China reported a higher-than-expected 6.9% on year growth in the first quarter. The U.S. dollar was weighed down by geopolitical risks and subdued economic data, but managed to pare some losses after positive comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

To sum up, as long as 1.0020 is not broken, look for a further rise to 1.0060 and even to 1.0085.

Resistance levels: 1.0060, 1.0085, and 1.0105

Support levels: 1.0005, 0.9990, and 0.9960

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 18, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.6985. Although the pair retreated from 0.7035 (the high of April 17), it is still trading above its key support at 0.6995, which could have limited the downside potential. Even though the continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent is likely to be limited.

Hence, as long as 0.6985 holds on the downside, look for a rebound to 0.7035. A break above this level would trigger a new rise to 0.7060.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7035 and the second one at 0.7060. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6930, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6910. The pivot point is at 0.6950.

Resistance levels: 0.7035, 0.7060, and 0.7080

Support levels: 0.6960, 0.6940, and 0.6910

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for April 18, 2017

The US dollar index reversed and got rejected at 101.30 when we expected it last week. Now it is in a short-term bearish trend. The price is in the important support area where we could see another upward turnaround.

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Blue line - short-term resistance trend line

The dollar index is trading below the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) and the blue trend line resistance. Resistance is found at 100.60. Support lies at 99.80 where we also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward move from the important lows at 98.80.

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Blue line - medium-term resistance trend line

Black line - medium-term support trend line

Green line - long-term support trend line

Weekly resistance remains in the area of 101.30-101.50 by the downward sloping trend line. Weekly support is at 99-98.80 where the medium-term and long-term support trend lines meet. Long-term trend remains bullish as price the holds above the Kumo (cloud). However, there will be intense warnings if the price closes below the weekly kijun-sen at 99.80.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 18, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in higher range and continue its rebound. The pair has broken above its negative trend line, as well as both 20-period and 50-period moving average, and is expected to continue its technical rebound. Meanwhile, the 20-period moving average stays above the 50-period one, and the relative strength index remains above its neutrality area at 50. The intraday bias remains positive.

As long as 136.60 is not broken down, further bounce is preferred with 136.30 and 135.95 as targets.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 137.75 and the second one at 138.35. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 136.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 135.95. The pivot point is at 136.60.

Resistance levels: 137.75, 138.35, and 138.75

Support levels: 136.30,135.95, and 135.25

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for April 18, 2017

Gold price has reached important long-term resistance and could make a deeper than normal pull back from current levels. We pay close attention to the short-term support levels as a swift breakdown could start any minute. Overall, my longer-term view remains bullish.

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Red rectangle area - support

Gold price is trading above the Kumo (cloud) and between the Tenkan- and Kijun-sen indicators. Short-term support is found at the Kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,273. Resistance is at $1,288. If gold makes a shallow pullback, I expect $1,270 to hold. If gold makes a deeper pullback, I expect to see it near $1,250-40.

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Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

Gold price is trying to break above the weekly Kumo (cloud) and the black downward sloping trend line resistance. A break above both of them will be a confirmation of my longer-term bullish view for gold. However, firstly we may see a rejection around $1,290-$1,300 back towards $1,250-$1,220.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 17, 2017

Forex analysis review
USD/JPY analysis for April 17, 2017

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 18, 2017

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The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed a further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed a further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why a further fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, a bullish breakout was achieved above the depicted key level (0.6960).

That is why, the recent bearish pullback toward 0.6960 offered significant bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry which is running in profits now.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7100 remains a significant key level to be watched for bearish price action when bullish pullback extends above 0.7040.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 18, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed a further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

Three weeks ago, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced a further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3530.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 18, 2017

The index gained bullish momentum at the end of yesterday's session amid a weakness which is still seen in the US dollar since the start of the week. USDX is now trying to rebound above 100.14, where it has formed a double bottom pattern across the board. Now the index is going to test the resistance zone of 100.54 in order to reach the 100.97 level. However, if the 100.14 level gives up, we might expect further declines toward 99.79.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.54 / 100.97

H1 chart's support levels: 100.14 / 99.79

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.14, take profit is at 99.79 and stop loss is at 100.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 18, 2017

The pair did a strong bullish move on Monday's Easter holiday, despite thin liquidity across FX markets. Currently, GBP/USD remains to trade to the upside, consolidating its gains above the 1.2550 zone. The pair should make a breakout of Monday's highs in order to reach the next key resistance located around 1.2658.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2551 / 1.2658

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2423 / 1.2333

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2551, take profit is at 1.2658 and stop loss is at 1.2443.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

As long as minor resistance at 1.5207 and more importantly as long as resistance at 1.5347 is able to cap the upside, we will be looking for a final decline into the 1.4874 - 1.4990 area to complete the correction in wave ii and be setting the stage for a strong rally in wave iii higher towards 1.5838 and above.

R3: 1.5347

R2: 1.5265

R1: 1.5208

Pivot: 1.5200

S1: 1.5145

S2: 1.5055

S3: 1.4990

Trading recommendation:

We will only buy EUR at 1.4885 or upon a break above 1.5347.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

The rally from the 114.82 low does look constructive, supporting our view that the corrective decline from 124.09 has completed and a new rally to above 124.09 is now unfolding. We still need a break above resistance seen at 116.55 to confirm that the corrective low is in place. A failure to regain resistance at 116.55 will keep the possibility of another new low alive, but the odds for this scenario seem low.

R3: 117.47

R2: 116.85

R1: 116.55

Pivot: 116.00

S1: 115.57

S2: 115.46

S3: 115.00

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 115.25 and will move our stop higher to 114.75.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Apr 18, 2017

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When the European market opens, the economic calendar lacks any statistics from the EU. But on the US dollar's front, the US will release several economic data too such as Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and TIC Long-Term Purchases. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0695.

Strong Resistance: 1.0688.

Original Resistance: 1.0678.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0668.

Target Inner Area: 1.0643.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0618.

Original Support: 1.0608.

Strong Support: 1.0598.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0591.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Apr 18, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release a series of economic reports such as Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and TIC Long-Term Purchases. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 109.71.

Resistance 2: 109.49.

Resistance 1: 109.28.

Support 1: 108.02.

Support 2: 108.80.

Support 3: 108.59.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | NZD/USD | 17th April 2017

We take a detailed look at NZD/USD and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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