Global macro overview for 30/01/2018

Eurozone data for fourth quarter of 2017 remain solid as they are led by strong German data. Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP posted a respectable gain of 0.6%, unchanged from the Q3 release. On the yearly basis, the GDP was as well in line with expectations at the level of 2.6% Nevertheless, the market participants are expecting some weak consumer numbers out of Germany this week (Preliminary CPI is expected to contract 0.5% and Retails Sales are expected at the level of -0.4% tomorrow), which could hurt investor confidence and send the European stock indices downwards. If the markets prove accurate and these indicators do point downwards, investors will be hoping that they are only a temporary dip, as the eurozone and German consumer numbers have generally been strong so far. The other concern is the appreciating Euro, which is still climbing higher towards the level 1.2500. This level of exchange rate might start to hurt the exporters soon and affect company earnings.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has finished a three wave corrective structure at the level of 1.2335 and rallied towards the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.2435.The momentum is clearly increasing, so if the pace of rally will sustain, then the price might even start to test the level of 1.2495 before the market conditions become overbought.

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Global macro overview for 30/01/2018

USD slowly began to retrace last week's sell-off from the three-year lows. Although the last phase of the sale of the American currency can be seen in terms of overshooting and a clear detachment from fundamentals or fair value based on the relative valuation of assets, the road from reversing the negative trend is very far away.

The tonight's appearance of the US President Donald Trump 02:00 am GMT may be crucial for the US Dollar future. The US administration has aroused much controversy with recent comments regarding the strength of the currency. Milk has spilled and a radical change in the rhetoric that has been known for years will not be easily removed from the awareness of market participants. The future of the NAFTA agreement and, more broadly, trade policy is also a lot of emotions. The chaos of Trump's presidency has obviously injured the Dollar and made the fundamentals forgotten. Sentiment towards the American currency is so bad that investors will try to use every rebate to sell it. A few days ago (in Davos), the President of the United States amazed showing a rather restrained face. In his own country, in the context of the upcoming November elections and fatal quotations, he may reach for proven means or an acute, protectionist rhetoric known from the time of the election campaign. In that situation, the US Dollar might again weaken across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index at the H4 time frame. The market tried two times to break through the technical resistance at the level of 89.62 but failed. Currently, the price is reversing towards the nearest technical support at the level of 88.45 and due to the weak momentum, the breakout lower is still possible.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for January 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating into potential wave 4 and will push higher one last time or it is preparing to drop into 1.2200 handle and produce the first leg lower, heading into much deeper correction. Interim resistance is seen at 1.2537 levels for now while support comes in around the 1.2200 handle. Going with the current counts, selling on rallies is the preferred strategy. It is still not absolutely confirmed about a major top in place yet but a break below 1.1900 levels would certainly confirm the same. Keeping the bigger picture in mind, a push towards 1.2600/50 levels still remain a probability but immediate price action is expected towards 1.2240 levels.

Trading plan:

Selling on rallies with risk above 1.2537 levels is a preferred strategy.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is also looking to pose a rally towards 90.00/91.00 levels at least. Please note that it is still not confirmed that the index has formed a major bottom but a high probability remains for the same and a break above 92.50 levels would certainly indicate that a bottom is in place now. High probability wave counts suggests that buying on dips is a safe and favored trading strategy going ahead. Please keep the bigger picture in mind that US Dollar Index has nearly completed 5 waves down since January 2017 highs from 103.80 levels. This indicates a high probability 3 waves counter trend rally to resume any moment that can push prices towards 95.00 and 98.00 levels respectively. Interim support is at 88.40 levels while resistance is at 91.00 for now.

Trading plan:

Remain long with risk below 88.40 levels for now.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for EUR consumer price index in next few minutes and USD Consumer confidence in the next 02 hours

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2018

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The pair remains under pressure below its major horizontal resistance at 109.00, and it is likely to post a new pullback. The 50-period moving average is heading downward, and it should continue to push the prices lower. In addition, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies, as investors took profits on dollar short positions in face of the rallying U.S. bond yields. At the same time, they are watching closely the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the January jobs report due later this week.

In which case, as long as 109.00 holds on the upside, look for further decline to 108.25 and 108.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a LONG position is recommended to be above 109.00 with a target of 109.20.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 109.00, take profit at 108.25.

Resistance levels: 109.20, 109.50, and 110.15

Support levels: 108.25, 108.00, and 107.50.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 30, 2018

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USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair is now heading downward, and it is likely to challenge its next support at 0.9290. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are still on the downside, which should confirm a negative outlook. Last but not least, the relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50.

To conclude, as long as the resistance at 0.9375 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9290 remains high.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9375, take profit at 0.9290.

Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9440, and 0.9500

Support levels: 0.9290, 0.9250, and 0.9200.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in the previous analysis were hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair bounced off its key horizontal support at 152.55, and it is expected to challenge the next resistance at 154.00. The 50-period moving average is heading upward, and it should continue to push the prices higher. In addition, the relative strength index is above its neutrality area at 50.

Hence, as long as 152.55 holds on the downside, it is likely to advance to 152.55 and 154.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a LONG position is recommended to be above 154.40 with the target at 155.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 152.55, Take profit at 154.00

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 154.00, 154.50, and 155.00.

Support levels: 152.00, 151.40, and 151.00.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 0.7280. The pair is consolidating above its key support at 0.7280, which should maintain the buying interest. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, as long as 0.7280 holds on the downside, a further rebound to 0.7360 and even to 0.7375 seems more likely to occur.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7360, 0.7375, and 0.7400.

Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7245, and 0.7220.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 30, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9377, which represents the first resistance on the H1 chart. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9377 to the bottom around 0.9393. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9377 followed by 0.9432, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9289 and 0.9230. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9377 and 0.9230. Hence, we expect a range of 147 pips in the coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.6790, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9377, the market will decline further to 0.9289. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9230 in order to test the second support (0.9230). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9432 (R2), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 30, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, in November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered a further decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms a bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

Otherwise, a pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2018

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Overview:

  • The pivot of NZD/USD pair is seen at the point of 0.7391. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7557 or higher. On the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.7260 (golden ratio). The pair rose from the level of 0.7260 (weekly support) to the top around 0.7400. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7260 followed by 0.7168, while daily resistance is seen at 0.7465. The weekly pivot point is seen at the point of 0.7391. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7391 and 0.7465; for that we expect a range of 74 pips in coming hours. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7465, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7557) to test it. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.7260, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.7170.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 30, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3979. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a bullish breakout of the supply trendline (resistance), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator and a fake breakout of yesterday's low, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4092 and at the price of 1.4150.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4148

R2: 1.4220

R3: 1.4280

Support levels:

S1: 1.4015

S2: 1.3950

S3: 1.3880

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 30, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $10.873. The current cryptocurrency investments ecosystem is one of the purest forms of a free market in economic history. This gives rise to an incredible growth which makes some people overnight fortunes and allows startups to flourish like never before. Unfortunately, it also puts the burden on investors to vet the teams, ideas, and capabilities before getting involved with any ICO. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30 time - frame, I found a broken bearish pennant formation, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $10.755, $10.275 and at the price of $9.860.

Support/Resistance

$11.102 – Intraday resistance

$10.758 – Intraday support

$10.275 – Objective target 1

$9.860 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for January 30, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.2334. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a bullish breakout of supply trendline (resistance), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2430 and at the price of 1.2490.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2430

R2: 1.2480

R3: 1.2527

Support levels:

S1: 1.2335

S2: 1.2290

S3: 1.2240

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/01/2018

Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, the main strategist of many assets in BlackRock, a $ 5.7 billion asset management corporation, said the company was working on a thorough cryptocurrency assessment. In an interview, for Bloomberg TV on Monday, 29 January, the CEO said that although cryptocurrency is not currently an "asset-able" investment, it actively follows progress because it "evolves very quickly." Larry Fink, who last week appeared at the World Economic Forum 2018, described space as a "money laundering rate" and said he was not planning to enter the future ETF Bitcoin arena. Although the dust settled on the Japanese Coincheck stock market after stealing $ 530 million, Mateos Y Lago sees no reason to completely reject the cryptocurrency investment: "It is a fact that interest persisted despite repetitive attacks.|- she continued, describing the demand of Bitcoin customers in BlackRock.

By adopting the perspective "not now, but maybe later" on the interaction, BlackRock reflects the mood of the head of Deutsche Bank, Markus Mueller, who also told Bloomberg that the crypto market is for speculative investors, and for the next five to ten years he should follow the regulations, allowing treating it as an "established class of assets".

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still consolidation around the weekly pivot at the level of $11,143 and the channel is still being well maintained. The key technical support remains at the level of $9,151 and the key technical resistance for the short-term traders is seen at the level of $12,737.

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Trading plan for 30/01/2018

The Asian part of Tuesday's listing is marked by a further strengthening of the US Dollar, which is strongly opposed by the Japanese Yen (0.2%), due to excellent retail sales data for December (0.9% m / m, consensus: -0.4%.). The above fact is not favorable for investors in Tokyo, where the Nikkei 225 index valuation is -1.4% under water.

On Tuesday, January 30th, the event calendar is light in important news releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Net Lending to Individuals data from the UK, Preliminary GDP data from France, Preliminary CPI data from Germany, and Flash GDP data form the whole Eurozone. During the US session, the biggest news will be CB Consumer Confidence release in the afternoon.

USD/JPY analysis for 30/01/2018:

The Retail Sales data from Japan has beat the estimates significantly. The market participants expected -0.4% drop on a monthly basis, but the figures were at the level of 0.9%. On the yearly basis, the sales jumped from 2.1% to 3.6%, which is a significant improvement as well. Retail Sales are a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, that confirms signals from consumer confidence and may spark inflationary pressures. The recent jump in spending will for sure be noticed by the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The initial positive market reaction to the data was quickly faded, and the price returned to the consolidation zone. Now, the nearest technical support at the level of 108.27 is the key level to the downside. The weak momentum supports the bearish outlook.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD Double Bottom?

The price of USD/CAD has made a possible Double Bottom formation at the H4 time frame chart at the level of 1.2290. Any breakout above the level of 1.2396 will be the first confirmation of the bottom. The growing momentum and rising stochastic oscillator support the bullish view.

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Market Snapshot: Gold falls out of the channel

The price of Gold has fallen out of the channel and broken the level of $1,344 which was acting as a technical support. Currently, the price is getting closer to the technical support at the level of $1,331 in somewhat oversold market conditions.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for January 30, 2018

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. The index made a bounce towards short-term resistance but it is far from confirming a bullish reversal in the 4 -hour chart. The 4-hour trend change level coincides with the 38% Fibonacci resistance level that bulls need to break for a bigger bounce to unfold.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Black rectangle - resistance

The Dollar index is breaking above the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators in the 4-hour chart. This implies that there are increased chances that the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the upper channel boundary will be tested. This resistance level is at 90-90.30. Support is at 89.30.

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Red lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Resistance is at 89.70 and next at 91. Price remains inside the bearish channel. A rejection at 89.70 will open the way for a new low towards 88-87.50. This is not the time to be chasing short positions but to wait for a clear reversal signal.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for January 30, 2018

Gold has pulled back towards cloud support as expected after breaking below the tenkan- and kijun-sen. Trend remains bullish as long as price is above the 4 hour cloud, but we are now at an important junction. The weekly chart is showing rejection signs.

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Gold price is testing the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) support at $1,335. So far, this could be seen as a healthy pull back before the up trend resumes. Resistance is at $1,343 and if it is broken we could see Gold move to $1,356. If support fails to hold we should see a test of $1,320-$1,310.

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Magenta line -long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

Gold price has not managed to close above the long-term resistance trend line, and it is showing rejection signs. $1,300 is very important weekly support. A weekly close below it will open the way for a move towards $1,250-40. It is still too early to draw conclusions for the weekly chart, however the start of the week has been bearish for Gold.

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The yen follows the euro

The quotes of the USD / JPY pair fell to the lowest level in the last four months against the background of moderate "hawkish" comments by Haruhiko Kuroda and the continuing weakness of the US dollar. Eisuke Sakakibara, who is also known as "Mr. Yen" because of his power of influence in the foreign exchange market at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, expects the "Greenback" to cost £ 100 by the end of this year. Despite the fact that the previous comments of this person were ignored by the market, the situation this time is developing in such a way that the forecast has good chances to become a reality.

The rapid growth of the world economy with the best start of the US stock market since 1987 and the long-term highs on the Nikkei 225 show a high global appetite for risk which is a bearish factor for the yen. The yield of US Treasury bonds is growing by leaps and bounds and due to the high correlation in the USD / JPY pair in the year 2016-2017, we could expect the pair at around 115. In fact, the dollar has fallen below £ 109 for the first time since September. What's the matter? Why does the yen strengthen on an unfavorable external background?

This is due to the growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will go through with the normalization of the monetary policy. Moreover, it is also because of the weakness of its main competitor. Before the eyes of investors is the example of the euro, which, thanks to Mario Draghi's hints of the ECB's departure from monetary expansion, grew by 14% in 2017. The yen added only two and given the fact that BoJ is going to follow in the footsteps of its colleagues from Frankfurt, it has a serious potential to take the same path. The market is not particularly embarrassed by the fact that core inflation and consumer prices in the Land of the Rising Sun do not exceed 1%.

Dynamics of Japanese inflation

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Source: Bloomberg.

The "Bears" of the USD / JPY pair are getting half-hints and they are not tired of getting them. At the beginning of the year, Haruhiko Kuroda was talking about the dangers of negative rates for the banking system. At the International Economic Forum in Davos, he said that wages are not the only ones rising. Inflation expectations are growing as well. Thus, the BoJ approaches the goal. Such rhetoric contradicts the accompanying statement of the Central Bank following the results of its January meeting. The same Kuroda then noted that the regulator had not yet reached the stage at which it was necessary to think about the normalization of monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan maintained a modest inflation forecast with a + 1.4% for the 2018/2019 fiscal year.

Thus, no matter how much the BoJ wanted to limit the strengthening of the yen, it is an objective process that will be difficult to stop. Moreover, the positions of the US dollar still look vulnerable. Despite the implementation of the tax reform, the dispersal of US GDP, and the aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed, investors have already stopped paying attention to the "bullish" sentiment for the USD / JPY factors. The stronger the States and the world economy they lead, the more chances for the normalization of monetary policy by central banks-competitors of the Fed.

Technically, reaching a target of 88.6% for the "Bat" pattern and the lower boundary of the consolidation range 108.35-114.45 increases the risks of pullback.

USD / JPY, daily chart

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