Euro and Swedish Krona are in serious trouble

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The Swedish Krona cannot recover after a recent fall. Recall - after the weak inflation data and plans of the local Central Bank forced investors to sell the currency. The euro, in turn, was hit by low volumes of industrial orders in Italy. Krona rose last week after the Central Bank of Sweden, despite growing caution, said it would stick to its rate increase plan in the second half of 2019. However, the next piece of data on the reduction of inflation in January sent the currency down by more than 1 percent, to a two-year low against the dollar. The forecast of the crown every day becomes more and more alarming. For the EUR / SEK pair, the range from 10.75 to 11.00 should not be excluded later, in 2019.

The euro, which has already fallen due to the fact that investors have shifted the focus from progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations to the weakness of the European economy, fell even more after data showed that industrial orders in Italy lost 5.3 percent in December. The euro, despite a vigorous Monday, is going through a difficult week. It is necessary to wait for the forecasts of the EU Commission, although there will be already well-known information for all - the lost momentum of the economy and weak inflationary pressure. The euro is likely to fall below $ 1.13, but not below $ 1.12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What to expect from the Fed protocols: the Fed will not raise rates and stop the balance reduction

While traders and economists are preparing to begin studying the minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System, the speeches of the Fed representatives will help determine the course of the committee's future policy at the beginning of this year.

Yesterday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that if the economy met expectations, the rates may have to be slightly raised. However, at the moment, the Fed's policy is not far behind the development of the situation in the economy, and is not much ahead of it, which gives time to gather additional information before making further adjustments to the policy.

Mester is confident that at the upcoming meetings, the Fed will make final adjustments to the plans for completing the reduction of the balance sheet, which is also likely to outline prospects for interest rates. If the committee declares about the suspension of the balance reduction, it is likely that monetary tightening will be suspended. Loretta Mester considers the delay in the reduction of the balance of the Fed by the end of the year acceptable.

At the end of the presentation, the representative of the Fed noted that currently, the US economy is facing counter-currents and obstacles, but the growth is likely to continue, which will allow us to expect good results for the end of 2019

As for the fundamental statistics, which was published yesterday in the afternoon, attention was attracted only by the report on the indicator of the sentiment of housing builders in the United States in February of this year, which rose again.

According to the National Association of Home Builders NAHB, the housing market index in February rose to 62 points against 58 points in January. Economists had expected the index to be 59 points in February.

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The rise in sentiment is directly related to the recent decline in mortgage rates after the Fed's suspension of the policy of raising interest rates, as well as to the good state of the labor market, which affects the mood of the builders. Last week, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan was 4.37% against a recent high of 4.94%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth will directly depend on the Federal Reserve protocols, which will be published today. If traders find nothing interesting in them, and the prospects for further increases in US interest rates remain unclear, the pressure on the US dollar may increase, which will support risky assets in the short term. This may lead to a breakthrough of resistance 1.1355 and a further increase in EURUSD in the area of highs 1.1400 and 1.1440.

In the case of a downward correction, and as we can see on the chart, before each new wave of euro growth there is a sharp depreciation, large levels of support are viewed in the 1.1315 and 1.1280 ranges.

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Simplified wave analysis. Overview of GBP / JPY for February 20

Large TF:

The largest scale of the terminal gives a picture of an ascending wave model, in which the first 2 parts (A + B) have now been completed. The likely potential for the upcoming growth rate reaches 10 price figures.

Small TF:

The rising wave of January 3 develops as an impulse. Intermediate correction left behind. From February 15, the price went up again. A rollback will follow from the current price levels, after which the general price increase will continue.

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Forecast and recommendations:

On the cross-country chart, the preparation is completed before the price breakthrough upwards. The time of the coming flat lull is recommended to use to search for entry points in the long position.

Resistance zones:

- 147.60 / 148.10

Support areas:

- 143.50 / 143.00

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 20th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". New legal conditions can lead Brexit deadlock

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 162.1134

The currency pair GBP / USD on Wednesday, February 20, amid the information that the European Union is not at all opposed to postponing the UK exit date from the EU, has shown significant strengthening. We have already seen a similar picture more than once in the past year when the pound sterling enjoyed consolidating on various kinds of rumors, unverified information and market expectations about the positive outcome of Brexit. It seems that in 2019, the pound will also seek support in precisely such factors. It also appeared that the Attorney General of England and Wales, Geoffrey Cox, has developed new legal proposals on the conditions of the Brexit, which must satisfy both parties. Probably, this information also supported the pound. Although in fact, it does not guarantee that the procedure for discussing the terms of Brexit will really break the deadlock. Nevertheless, this information is like a breath of fresh air for investors. However, we still believe that there are no compelling fundamental reasons for the growth of the pound and in general, there are no reasons for joy. Firstly, it is not known what kind of conditions will be offered to the British Parliament and the EU, which has refused to conduct new negotiations. Secondly, today there will be a meeting between Theresa May and Jean Claude Juncker, following which there will definitely be new information on Brexit. In general, we continue to monitor the situation.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3031

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3092

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues its upward movement. Thus, it is recommended to trade for a raise with targets at 1.3092 and 1.3123 until the Heikin Ashi indicator turns down.

Short positions will again become relevant after the price is fixed back below the moving average line. The targets, in this case, will be the levels of 1.2848 and 1.2817.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 20th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The only event of the day - the Fed protocol

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 127.3110

The EUR / USD currency pair with great difficulty fixed above the moving average line and completed the Murray level of "2/8" - 1.1353. From a fundamental point of view, the growth potential of the European currency is at that exhausted. However, taking into account the fact that the pair failed from three attempts to overcome the important and strong support area of 1.1250 - 1.1290, we can assume that the strengthening of the euro can continue based on technical factors. Thus, for further upward movement, the pair will need to overcome the level of 1.1353. To date, February 20, not a single significant publication has been planned again. Only in the States will the report of the last Fed meeting be published late in the evening. However, as is almost always the case, this report does not contain fundamentally new information, therefore, the reaction to it in most cases is absent. However, this report is not recommended to be overlooked. At the same time, there is another important question to which the market would like to receive an answer. Will the Fed complete the reduction program? Earlier, it was repeatedly discussed that the Fed is completing the course on a systematic increase in the key rate, and therefore the question arises about the balance of the Fed. If any signals are received about the completion of this program or a reduction in its pace, this will be a negative point for the US dollar.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair broke the moving and completed the level of 1.1353. Thus, in the case of overcoming the first target, long positions with a target of 1.1414 will be relevant.

It is recommended to return to sell orders no earlier than price fixing below the moving average line. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change is downward, and the target will be 1.1230.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro and Pound are taking advantage of the weakness of the dollar

The US-China trade negotiations face a fundamental difference in approach. As known, the United States accuses China of increasing the trade deficit, violating WTO rules and misappropriating intellectual property. On the third point, the Trump administration conducted a special investigation, which resulted in China's accusation of a whole range of violations, from discriminatory licensing restrictions to cyber attacks to steal intellectual property.

Does it really look that way? It turns out that this position of the United States is not absolutely confirmed by the facts. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, analyzing data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, received a different picture as a result - Chinese royalty payments rose from $ 1.4 billion in 1999 to $ 27.2 billion in 2017. According to this indicator, China ranks fourth in the world immediately after the United States and two tax offshore companies - Ireland and the Netherlands.

Payments for the use of US intellectual property increased over the same period from $ 755 million to $ 8.3 billion, while the growth rate of payments noticeably outpaced China's GDP growth.

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Since Chinese companies do not suffer from a shortage of capital, for them the main motive for attracting foreign direct investment is access to new technologies. This approach is completely natural and in time will lead China to the possession of all the key modern technologies, which the United States do not want to allow.

We are talking exclusively about the containment of China's development, this is the essence of the US position on trade negotiations. Any reports of "emerging success" indicate improved prospects for US GDP growth and help strengthen the dollar and reduce risky assets, failure will accelerate the approach of recession. The seriousness of the situation received confirmation from Japan - as stated yesterday by the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda, speaking in parliament, "The Bank of Japan will consider additional easing if the growth of the yen is threatening." Models of the development of the situation point to an early resumption of growth in a panic on the background of a slowdown in world trade, which will lead to an increase in the demand for defensive assets and the need for regular emergency measures to support business activity.

EURUSD

ECB officials have increased their activity in preparing markets to change the direction of monetary policy. Following Benoit Coeure, Peter Praet, chief economist at the ECB, confirmed the likelihood of launching the TLTRO package, and Francois Villeroy de Galhau, member of the ECB board of governors and head of the Bank of France, said that the regulator could change the forecast for key interest rates if it turns out that the current slowdown in the eurozone is not is temporary.

On Tuesday, the ZEW Institute added a bit of optimism - the February economic sentiment index rose to -13.4 p against -15 a month earlier, for the eurozone -16.6 p against -20.9 p, both figures were slightly better than expected.

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The European Commission has threatened a tough response if the United States imposes tariffs on car imports. The European car industry has just begun to recover from the failure due to the transition to new environmental standards, and another blow could lead to additional multi-billion losses.

Today, the euro will try to update yesterday's maximum of 1.3057, the medium-term target of 1.1440 / 50, its achievement is possible at the end of the week.

GBPUS

The employment report was able to give the pound a positive impetus, as wages continue to grow faster than inflation, which indicates income growth not only in nominal terms but also in real terms.

The wage growth with premiums in October / December remained at 3.4% year-on-year, which was slightly worse than the forecast of 3.5%. Unemployment has remained at a minimum level of 4% since 1975, and in general, the labor market in the UK is still one of the few strong indicators amid weak economic growth.

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The question of a civilized exit from the EU is in the first place, as it prevents Britain from deciding on the terms of trade agreements with key partners. Last week, a trade agreement was concluded with Switzerland, but a number of other countries, in particular, Japan and South Korea, will await the outcome of the Brexit. The pause will not allow expecting an improvement in the investment climate.

Nevertheless, as of Wednesday, the pound has good prospects for further growth and will try to get to the border of the channel 1.3145 / 50. A correctional pullback to 1.3020 / 25 is likely and is likely to be bought back with the expectation of renewed growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 20. The level of 1.1360 does not let the pair go up

4h

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Quoting quotes from this level allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop towards the level of 1.1269. The ripening divergences on February 20 are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 with a turn in favor of the EU currency and began the process of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. None of the indicators have maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing quotations below the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect a resumption of a fall in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders

New purchases of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1446 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1358 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 23.6%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the target of 1.1269, since it was canceled from the 23.6% correction level, with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for February 20. There are two possible rebounds with the pair down

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on the 4-hour chart completed the passage of the last peak of the bearish divergence and consolidation above the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2969. Thus, the growth process continues on February 20 in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094. Resetting the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight fall towards the correctional level of 61.8%. Closing the pair above the level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3300.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair continues the growth process in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.3088. The release of the pair's course from this Fibo level will make it possible to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the correction level of 38.2% - 1.3008. The ripening divergence on February 20 is not observed. Closing quotes above the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the probability of continued growth in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.3217.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with a target of 1.3217 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 23.6% if the pair closes above 1.3088 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.308 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 23.6% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3088 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of AUD / USD for February 20

Large TF:

Since the beginning of last year, the main trend vector "Aussie" is set by a downward wave. Its incomplete structure indicates the temporary nature of oncoming movements.

Small TF:

From January 3, a rising wave model develops on the graph, which will eventually take the place of a correction in the main trend wave. Within the framework of the construction, the correctional part (B) is nearing completion. The price rise that began on February 8 may give rise to the final phase of the current wave.

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Forecast and recommendations:

A flat preparation for a price breakthrough up can end in the upcoming weekly period. In the area of calculated support, it is recommended to track long entry signals.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7130 / 0.7080

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of the foreign exchange market on 02/20/2019

Yesterday, the dollar quite actively lost its position, although if we rely on macroeconomic statistics, there are simply no reasons for this. Thus, the unemployment rate and the growth rate of the average wage in the UK remained unchanged. Yet, a decrease is expected in the unemployment rate, as well as the acceleration of the growth of average wages. Also, data on the construction industry in Europe showed a slowdown in its growth from 1.1% to 0.7%, while an acceleration of 2.1% was predicted. Thus, given that no data has been published in the United States, the weakening of the dollar looks rather strange.

Nevertheless, yesterday rumors began to spread that at the minimum before the signing of a new trade agreement between the United States and China, the Federal Reserve System would try to avoid direct statements regarding the possibility of easing monetary policy. Considering that the text of the minutes of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations is being published today, bidders began to play against the dollar. If indeed there would be no indication of reducing the rate of decline in the balance of the Federal Reserve System, they will actively buy the cheapened dollar. Such rumors themselves are completely substantiated since the US Central Bank must consider the position of the Bank of China, which under the conditions of commercial uncertainty and tendency of the Federal Reserve in mitigating the monetary policy towards softening. Indeed, there is a high probability that any hints of the possibility of mitigating the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, which will lead to a stronger dollar, will be excluded from the text of the protocol.

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Another interesting point is the meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker. It also became a reason for the weakening of the dollar because any hint of progress in terms of reaching agreements on the part of the divorce agreement has a positive effect on the expectations of market participants. However, relying on the results of previous meetings, as well as on the fact that the parties have not advanced a single step on this issue over the past two years, it is worth expecting that this meeting will bring some disappointments. On another end, dismay on the British side since this situation itself only promises some advantages for Europe. It turns out that the fully programmed result of this meeting will also be an occasion to weaken the pound and followed by the single European currency.

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EUR: Most likely, the single European currency will drop to 1.1300.

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GBP: The pound will be reduced to 1.2950.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 20. Yesterday's enthusiasm for Brexit talks is gradually diminishing

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound returned to the area of support, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, but there was no serious demand for it. Hence, it led to a revision of the future strategy for purchases. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions after the new minimum in the area of 1.2987 is updated and the main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3038. In case that happens, you can count on a larger growth and an update of the weekly high near 1.3097, where I recommend taking profits.

The bears managed to consolidate below the morning support of 1.3035, and now, it is the resistance. The main objective for short positions in the afternoon is located in the area of 1.2987, where I recommend taking profits. An unsuccessful attempt to consolidate and return to the resistance of 1.3038 will also be a signal to sell the pound before the publication of the Fed's protocols. When the growth scenario reaches above 1.3038, it is best to rely on short positions to rebound from a high of 1.3097. We should not forget that much will depend on the results of Theresa May's negotiations with the EU representatives, which began today.

More in the video forecast for February 20

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the likely continued growth of the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

In the case of today's growth of the pound in the second half of the day, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3090 may limit the upward potential.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 20. A good report on the German economy did not help the euro to continue to

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers attempted to continue growth today against the backdrop of a good report on producer prices in Germany. However, they failed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.1355. In the afternoon, all attention will be focused on the Fed's protocols but the bulls still need to break down and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1355, which will lead to a larger upward correction already in the area of maximum 1.1394 and 1.1432, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of EUR / USD decline, long positions can be opened on the condition that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1319, where the moving average is concentrated or to rebound from the 1.1279 minimum, where the lower limit of the upward price channel is seen.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro sellers formed a false breakdown today, which I drew attention in the morning forecast, in a condition that long trading will be below 1.1355 resistance. Then, we can count on a further decline of EUR/USD pair to the support area of 1.1319, where I recommend taking profits. In case of consolidation below this level, the pressure on EUR/USD pair may increase significantly, which will return the pair to the region of the lower border of the ascending channel and will lead to an update of the 1.1279 minimum. Under the scenario of a further upward correction after the publication of the Fed's minutes and a breakthrough of 1.1355, the euro can be sold for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1394.

More in the video forecast for February 20

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading remains above the 30- and 50-medium moving, indicating a bullish market advantage.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, growth will be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1355 and a breakthrough of this level will be a good signal to buy.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 20, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913 in the long term. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar continues to rise against yen on pending Fed protocols

The dollar does not intend to make any sudden movements before the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. Although, it managed to strengthen against the yen amid a stronger risk appetite for investors, which limits the demand for the Japanese currency. In general, considering that the Japanese currency is a safe haven, it surrendered as Japanese stocks climbed to new two-month highs. Currently, the yen has gone into deep defense. This plays into the hands of the dollar in this pair. Recall that on Tuesday, the dollar rose against the yen following the statement of the head of Japan's Central bank saying that the Central Bank "is ready to increase incentives if a sharp increase in the yen will damage the economy." If you look at it, the Bank of Japan doesn't have many options even if it really decides to act. But the global trend, starting with the United States, Europe, and Australia, is moving towards a softer policy.

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As for the dollar, the attempts of market participants to predict its value in terms of the dovish Fed policy keep the currency on defense. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds plummeted to an 11-day low before the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. The dollar quotes grew steadily last week but the demand for the liquid dollar has recently faded amid optimism that a new round of talks between China and the United States will help resolve their trade dispute. It is worth noting that the yuan rose following the report of Bloomberg that the US insists on a promise from China that it will not devalue the yuan in a trade transaction.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 20, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot point: 0.6882.

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 20, 2019

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BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $4.013. The momentum is still bullish and there are no signs of a reversal yet.

We found a potential end of the downward correction (running flat abc), which is a sign that buyers may resume the uptrend. Intrarday resistance is set at $4.031 and intraday support at $3.900.

Trading recommendation: We are still neutral on BTC but you can buy aggressively from $4.000 with protective stop at $3.900. Profit targets are set at $4.195 and $4.360.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 20, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel failed to demonstrate immediate bullish support.

However, this week, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated some bullish recovery around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270) which brought the pair again inside its movement channel.

Hence, a bullish target around 1.1430 will probably be visited as long as the pair maintain its bullish persistence above 1.1300.

On the other hand, a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285). Stop Loss to be located below 1.1225 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for February 20, 2019

EUR managed to gain ground against JPY despite the economic slowdown in the eurozone that explains weakness of JPY. JPY use to be the dominant currency in the pair throughout 2018 but this year EUR managed to gain certain momentum along the way which could be maintained in the short term.

The eurozone's downturn was mainly caused by recession in Italy, stagnation in Germany, and a downgraded economic outlook for the 19-nation euro area. According to investors, EUR is currently is quite near to the weakest point which was recorded in mid-2017. The ECB's sentiment is quite nervous nowadays which might lead to certain wrong steps along the way. If the regulator provides a better solution than the latest one suggested by President Draghi, EUR might win back some of its losses, though its stength is likely to be short-lived. Economic indicators have revealed downbeat performance. Moreover, EUR is expected to extend broad-based weakness as analysts warn about more disappointing economic data to follow.

A disorderly BREXIT is also expected to impact the eurozone's economy. The eurozone is currently facing economic headwinds. France and Germany are currently working on the plans to reform EU competition rules to encourage positive changes through mergers of corporations.

On the JPY side, Japan has been alert to the US-China trade talks as its outcome is sure to influence Japan's international trade efficiency. Japan is currently sticking to its view that the US won't impose higher tariffs on imports of Japanese cars and spare parts as long as the negotiations are undeway. As Japan's biggest industry is cars and auto parts, any tariff hike on these goods may undermine Japan's domestic economy. Recently Core Machinery Orders report was published positive with a slight decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to decrease more to -1.1%. Today Trade Balance report was published with a significant deficit to -0.37T from the previous figure of -0.22T which was expected to increase to 0.17T. The wider trade balance deficit indicates sluggish exports and imports that reflects lower foreign demand and waning momentum in Japan's industry.

Meanwhile, EUR has been quite confident with recent gains despite the economic slowdown, whereas the downbeat trade balance report from Japan confused market sentiment.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price recently rejected off the Gann Grid Line with strong bearish pressure which is expected to lead to medium-term bearish momentum towards 125.00 support area before it pushes higher again with the bullish trend with a target towards 128.50-130.00 resistance area in the future.

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February 20, 2019 : GBP/USD Bullish opportunity around the backside of the broken movement channel.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) is roughly located.

Last week, lack of bullish demand was demonstrated around 1.2920 until Friday when significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Hence, remaining bullish target is projected towards 1.3200 and 1.3240.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD currently has a significant demand zone located around (1.2960-1.2925) to be watched for BUY entries.

Bullish persistence above 1.2960 (newly-established demand zone) remains mandatory so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards the mentioned bullish targets. Any bearish breakdown below which invalidates the whole bullish scenario for the short-term.

Trade Recommendations :

Any bearish pullback towards the depicted H4 demand zone (1.2960-1.2925) should be watched for a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2890. T/P levels to be located around 1.3040, 1.3155 and 1.3235.

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Market focuses on the Fed meeting

Based on Tuesday trading, the US dollar fell against all major currencies with the exception of the Japanese yen, which grew slightly against it. The reason for this dynamic is still the two topics on the expectation of a positive outcome of negotiations between the Americans and the Chinese, and the growing investor conviction that the Fed can not only stop raising interest rates. However, they also reduce its balance which was inflated during the three quantitative easing (QE) programs but already reduced from an estimated volume of 4.5 trillion dollars to 4.0 trillion dollars in the fall of 2017.

It seems that the market is beginning to believe in another important thing which is the deployment of new incentive programs but not only in China, it includes the US and the eurozone. So far, Americans are still full of optimism about the prospects for their economy, hoping for the conclusion of a new trade agreement that is beneficial for them which, in their opinion, will support the national economy. According to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, she said on Tuesday that she expects the economy to continue to grow at a rate of 2.00% - 2.50%, which is slightly lower than previously forecast but still acceptable. She also made it clear that interest rates are likely to be raised from current levels. In general, the content of her statement was "soft" in content, which also contributed to the weakening of the US currency.

Today, market's attention will focus on the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting as they wait for a signal whether the Fed will stop reducing its balance or not. At the moment, it is the cornerstone of stabilizing the current levels of US stock indices and the possibility of their further growth, and of course, this is the main factor in determining the dynamics of the dollar.

If the Fed decides to stop reducing the balance on any plausible pretexts, it will keep investors interested in buying risky assets and will undoubtedly put pressure on the US currency. However, if a distinct signal does not follow then this will lead to an increase in pressure on stock markets and an increase in the dollar rate.

In our opinion, while the American regulator hopes for the continuation of economic growth in the country at the moment, it will avoid a clear position in relation to his monetary policy, which may become the basis for maintaining high market volatility. The situation may become clear already against the background of the outcome of negotiations with the Chinese, on which, much will depend.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1355 after rising in the wake of the global weakening of the dollar. If the pair fails to overcome this mark, it may turn down with the prospect of a decline to 1.1290, probably because of the indistinct position of the Fed regarding the prospects for ending the balance reduction.

The USD/CAD pair is above the level of 1.3185. If the weakening of the dollar stops and oil quotes will turn down against the background of the publication of data on oil and petroleum products in the US, the price may turn upward and rush to 1.3285.

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USD/JPY analysis for February 20, 2019

USD/JPY is trading at 110.75 and inside of the corrective structure (bearish flag), which is a sign that buying looks risky. Since there is impulsive downward movement in the background, we expect downward continuation in the next period.

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USD/JPY did a successful breakout of the rising upward trendline in the background, which is a sign of weakness. We found a hidden bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Key short-term resistance is set at 111.13 while the key support short-term support is set at 11.28.

Trading recommendation: We sold aggressively USD/JPY (small position) from 110.77 and we placed protective stop at 111.15. We plan to add another position if we see a breakout of the bearish flag (110.47). Downward targets are set at 110.28 and 109.60.

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Analysis of Gold for February 20, 2019

As expected gold is trading towards our minimum target at $1.360.00. This is an important long-term resistance area and the bulls are sure to find resistance there and that is why the level of $1.360.00 looks good for profit taking.

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Rising white line – running support

Blue line – key long-term resistance

Gold is making higher highs and higher lows in the daily time - frame. Price has bounced from the running upward trendline (support). Resistance is important around $1.360. Key short-term support is set at $1.324.00.

Trading recommendation: We are still bullish on Gold from $1.328.00 but we moved our stop loss on breakeven. Profit target is set at the price of $1.360.00.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 20. Is Eurocurrency ready for continued growth?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, February 19, trading ended for EUR / USD by another 30 bp increase. Thus, the pair continues to build the estimated wave 4 of the downward trend section, which assumes the form of a triangle, or the three-wave structure downward is completed. The instrument proceeds to construct an upward trend segment at least a three-wave trend. One way or another, now the tool has hit the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and the euro's future prospects are directly related to the willingness or unwillingness to make a breakthrough at this level.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 0.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1356 - 23.6% Fibonacci

1.1408 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair completed the construction of the descending wave 3. Thus, now I recommend buying with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1356, which corresponds to 23.6% of Fibonacci, and above, about 1.1408. According to Fibonacci, a successful attempt to break through the level of 23.6% will indicate the readiness of the euro to continue building the upward wave.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 19)

The Euro / Dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed low volatility of 44 points. As a result, the pair remains to be at a range level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we can see that after an intensive move, the quotation rolled back again to the range of the range level 1.1280 / 1.1300. However, this time, we saw a clear attempt by the bulls to change the already stable market interest. No statistics was shown in the news background. This is also due to the previous day off in the United States, which led to a decrease in trading volumes. From the information background, I can single out only a small splash from the shores of the old world regarding the Brexit agreement. Members of the British Cabinet threatened the head of government, Teresa May, with a succession of resignations if she did not rule out the possibility of Brexit without a deal with the EU.

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see an amplitude oscillation within the range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300, where the quote is trying to find a foothold, but still it remained at the same limits. It is likely to assume the preservation of the current amplitude oscillation with an extension to the framework of 1.1280 / 1.1340. Traders, in turn, monitor these boundaries for breakdown. And of course, special attention is paid to the upper boundary.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.1340, with the prospect of a move to 1.1400-1.1440.

- Positions for sale, as already mentioned in the previous review, were conducted according to the principle of small positions that developed within the range of 1.1280 / 1.1340, that is, testing the value of 1.1340 which brings us back to 1.1300. This happened in principle.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we can see that in the short and intraday perspective, there is an upward interest against the background of the recent jump. The medium-term outlook keeps the initial downward interest against the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 19 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 31 points. It is likely to assume that if the stagnation drags on, the volatility will remain low. But if the quotation still manages to break out above 1.1340, then we can talk about the process of working out the range level and thus, it will result to an increasing volatility.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1340 *; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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GBP / USD plan for the European session on February 20. The pound rose in expectations of progress in negotiations between

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

In general, the breakthrough of a number of major resistance levels and a good report on the UK labor market returned the demand for the British pound. A breakthrough and consolidation above resistance 1.3074 are required to continue the upward trend, which will lead to new highs in the 1.3111 and 1.3159 areas, where I recommend taking profits. With the downward correction scenario in the first half of the day, you can take a closer look at the false breakdown from the support of 1.3030 or rebound from a larger level 1.2977, where the 50-day moving average runs.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers need to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.3074 in the condition of divergence on the MACD indicator. This will be the first signal to sell the pound in order to update 1.3030 and break through this range, which will count on at least 1.2977, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of further growth of the pound on the positive news that Brexit is being postponed, it is best to return to short positions after updating the maximum of 1.3111 or to rebound from 1.3159.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is held above the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates a further increase in the British pound.

Bollinger bands

Pound growth today may limit the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.3111. If there is a decrease, the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.2977 area will provide support.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for February 20. An unexpected increase in the pound may be replaced by a new fall.

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Wave counting analysis:

On February 19, the GBP / USD pair gained about 140 bp. After that, it went beyond the maximum of the previous wave, which required making adjustments to the current wave marking. Nevertheless, the downward trend, taking its beginning on January 25, still looks like a 5-wave completed structure. Therefore, the current tool enhancement can be identified as a corrective wave set. If this assumption is correct, then the tool can resume its decline from the current position or from the level of 76.4% on the small Fibonacci grid, as part of building a new impulse wave with targets located below the 28th figure. Thus, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% will indicate that the pair is ready to decline.

Shopping goals:

1.3109 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a downward wave. Thus, now, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.2826 and 1.2734, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. One can wait for the unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% for opening sales. As the news background caused demand for the pound and on the wave of these emotions, the market may continue to buy a pound.

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EUR / USD plan for the European session on February 20. Euro needs good data to keep growing

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data did not help the euro much, however, it can be seen that the upward momentum remains. Today, a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1355 are required in the first half of the day, which will lead to a larger upward correction already in the area of maximum at 1.1394 and 1.1432, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of the EUR / USD decline, long positions can be opened on the condition that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1319, where the moving average is concentrated. Also, we can try on a rebound from the minimum of 1.1279, where the lower limit of the upward price channel is seen.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro sellers will count on the formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.1355, which will lead to a downward correction of the pair to the support area of 1.1319, where I recommend fixing the profit. In case of consolidation below this level, the pressure on EUR/USD pair may increase significantly, which will return the pair to the region of the lower border of the ascending channel and will lead to an update of the 1.1279 minimum. In case of a further upward correction and a break of 1.1355, the euro can be sold for a rebound from a maximum of 11394.

Found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of an upward market correction.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1369 will limit the upward potential of the euro. If the euro goes down, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1305.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 20, 2019

EUR/USD as expected has bounced towards our minimum target of the 38% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1340. This is important short-term resistance area and if bulls manage to reclaim and stay above 1.1350, we should be heading towards 1.14-1.1420 soon.

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Black lines - bullish divergence

Green line - support trend line

Red line - resistance trend line

Blue rectangle -short-term target (achieved)

Black rectangle - next bounce target

EUR/USD has started making higher highs and higher lows in the 4 hour time frame. Price has bounced as expected and reached our first target. Resistance is important around 1.1350 and if bulls are strong enough we could see a move higher towards 1.14. The next Fibonacci resistance level is at the 61.8% retracement at 1.1407. Support is at yesterday's lows at 1.1275. Bulls do not want to see this level broken. If support fails to hold we could see a move towards 1,12 or lower.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 20, 2019

Gold price has hit all our short-term targets after breaking above $1,317 when our last bullish signal was given. Price has reached the upper channel boundary and at $1,340 I prefer to take profits and stay neutral.

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Purple lines - bullish channel

Yellow rectangle- major support area

Black rectangle - short-term resistance (broken) now support

Gold price has reached our $1,330-40 target area and the upper channel boundary. Gold price has reached its maximum short-term potential according to my view and at current levels I prefer to be neutral. Support is found at $1,326 and next and most important at $1,300. Medium-term trend remains bullish as long as we trade above $1,300. However I expect at least a short-term reversal towards $1,330 to be seen this week. The Daily RSI (not shown above) is providing bearish divergence signs. This is an important warning for bulls.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for February 20, 2019

EUR managed to gain certain momentum over USD despite an economic slowdown in the eurozone. Besides, the Brexit deadline is just aorund the corner on March 29, 2019. Some of the ECB's hardliners are devising measures if the eurozone's economic slowdown gets much worse.

The eurozone's downturn was mainly caused by recession in Italy, stagnation in Germany, and a downgraded economic outlook for the 19-nation euro area. According to investors, EUR is currently is quite near to the weakest point which was recorded in mid-2017. The ECB's sentiment is quite nervous nowadays which might lead to certain wrong steps along the way. If the regulator provides a better solution than the latest one suggested by President Draghi, EUR might win back some of its losses, though its stength is likely to be short-lived. Economic indicators have revealed downbeat performance. Moreover, EUR is expected to extend broad-based weakness as analysts warn about more disappointing economic data to follow.

A disorderly BREXIT is also expected to impact the eurozone's economy. The eurozone is currently facing economic headwinds. France and Germany are currently working on the plans to reform EU competition rules to encourage positive changes through mergers of corporations.

On the other hand, USD is quite comfortable with unchanged interest rates despite the mixed economic reports from the US. USD could assert its strength, finding support from Fed's optimism. Recently FED's New York President John Williams stated that current interest rates are optimal and until the economic situation demands or inflation shifts, this steady rates are going to work fine towards progress. Recently NAHB Housing Market Index report was published with an increase to 62 from the previous figure of 58 which was expected to be at 59. Tomorrow, US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.4% and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is going to be published with a decrease to 15.6 from the previous figure of 17.0.

Moreover, the US and China are expected to make a trade deal by the deadline of March 1. Citing President Trump, the trade talks are going on well as planned. Tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are schedule to rise 25% from 10% starting from March 1. If the parties are not ready to finalize the deal, it could be delayed.

Meanwhile, investors express confidence about the US - China trade deal that is bullish for USD. A slowdown in the eurozone's economy affects the overall EUR gains. Until the eurozone releases solid economic data and suggests sound solutions to spur economic growth, USD is going hold the upper hand in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the dynamic resistance of 20 EMA while residing below 1.1350 area which if perfectly held with a daily close below. In this case, further bearish pressure is expected in the pair which will lead the price towards 1.1200-50 support area in the coming days.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on February 20, 2019

EUR/USD

European economic indicators, released on Tuesday, turned out to be worse than expectations, the market worked with it, but with the opening of the US session, Loretta Mester's comments on the economic slowdown and the British pound's growth on expectations of today's meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, euro optimism took over.

In the European session, the euro made a false move - punctured the signal level of 1.1290, but did not consolidate below it and soared up sharply. Even the signal line of the oscillator Marlin did not have time to touch the border with the territory of decline. As a result, the price consolidated above the Krusenstern line of a four-hour scale, having reached the resistance of the trend line of the downward price channel of the lower scale.

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Now, the target for the price is 1.1407 - the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the decline line of January 31. But in front of it is the resistance zone of 1.1350-73, the upper limit of which is the Krusenstern line on the daily scale, which coincides with the Fibonacci level of 50.0%. Now the Marlin indicator of the four-hour scale attracts a lot of attention - if technical divergence forms a way to 1.1407, then the price might move downwards.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 20, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price will move down. The first lower target of 1.3005 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price will move down. The first lower target of 1.3005 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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Burning forecast 02/20/2019

On Tuesday, February 19, the EURUSD rate drew a strong daily bullish candle - a clear signal of a reversal upward.

Now the price has stalled in the middle of the line (Alligator Bill Williams) by the day. The next target is a strong resistance line on the way up to around 1.1420-1.1430.

There are two news that can push - or try to break the movement: the Fed's minutes at 18.00 London time - and the meeting of British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker - the latest attempt to help the British government carry out an agreement with the EU on Brexit through Parliament.

We keep buying from 1.1315.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1230.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 20, 2019

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The break above key resistance at 143.03 confirmed that wave ii/ completed with the test of 141.00 and wave iii/ is developing. The next upside target to look for is seen at 146.02 and near 147.00 as wave iii/ makes it way higher towards the 161.8% extension target at 151.50.

Support is now seen in the 144.26 - 144.33 area and key support is seen at 143.36.

R3: 146.02

R2: 145.59

R1: 144.75

Pivot: 144.55

S1: 144.33

S2: 143.93

S3: 143.36

Trading recommendation:

Our stop+revers was hit at 143.10. We will protect our new long position with a stop at break-even at 143.10.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 20, 2019

analytics5c6ce7593cb2b.png

EUR/JPY is set to break above resistance at 125.95. A clear break above this resistance will call for a continuation higher towards 129.48 and ultimately a rally to the 161.8% extension target at 133.54 in wave iii.

Support is now seen at 125.25 and key support is seen at 124.76 which must be able to protect the downside to keep the preferred bullish outlook in place

R3: 127.09

R2: 126.50

R1: 125.95

Pivot: 125.25

S1: 124.76

S2: 124.21

S3: 123.75

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.65 and we will raise our stop to break-even at 124.65.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for February 20, 2019

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Technical outlook:

An hourly chart view has been presented for EUR/USD again, to have a short-term overview of the wave structure. Notably, after breaking into the buy zone of its resistance line, the EUR/USD pair dropped back lower yesterday as expected and tested the backside of resistance line at 1.1275 levels. Besides, the fibonacci 0.618 support of the recent rally between 1.1233 and 1.1334 levels was also seen towards 1.1270 levels. The bulls have managed to take control from a convergence of support around 1.1270/75 levels and also made an interim high at 1.1355 levels. Until prices stay above 1.1275 lows, the EUR/USD pair can be expected to print higher highs and higher lows. As depicted here, prices are expected to push through 1.1495 levels in the next few weeks. Immediate short-term movement could be seen as a potential correction lower towards 1.1307/10 levels. A bullish turn from there could bring back bulls into play again.

Trading plan:

Take partial/full profit on long positions taken yesterday. Again look to buy around 1.1310 levels, stop at 1.1210. The target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on February 20, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound continued a planned and expected upward movement. The price overcame the resistance of the price channel line (1.2973) and reached the nearest target of 1.3048. On the four-hour chart, the price has already consolidated above the level, now the target is the high on November 7 - 1.3174. The reason for such rapid growth was the optimistic expectations of investors regarding today's meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker on the Irish border. But Juncker admitted that he didn't know what May's proposal was, just as there was no leakage from the UK, which could be a sign of another failure of the negotiations. Nevertheless, the purely technical picture in all respects is increasing; On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved to the growth zone of the trend; on the four-hour chart, the same indicator shows no warning signs of a downward reversal. With caution, but still waiting for the continuation of growth to 1.3174.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com