Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 12.74% to 21.99; S&P 500 closed up 1.29% at 1,886.76 Friday) after surprise rise in University of Michigan preliminary U.S. October consumer sentiment index to 86.4 from the final September reading of 84.6 (versus forecast 84.0) and stronger-than-expected 6.3% on-month increase in U.S. September housing starts (versus forecast +4.6%); hints that U.K. monetary policy tightening could be delayed and that the European Central Bank would start more stimulus efforts within days. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy amd higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.199% versus 2.155% late Thursday) and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last at 85.28 versus 84.96 early Friday) on upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment and housing data. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is rising from the oversold zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.55 and the second target at 108.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 106.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 105.70. The pivot point is at 106.50.


Resistance levels:

107.55

107.85

108.15


Support levels:

106.05

105.70

105.50


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. USD/CHF losses are restricted by the positive dollar sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 12.74% to 21.99; S&P 500 closed up 1.29% at 1,886.76 Friday) after surprise rise in University of Michigan preliminary U.S. October consumer sentiment index to 86.4 from the final September reading of 84.6 (versus forecast 84.0) and stronger-than-expected 6.3% on-month increase in U.S. September housing starts (versus forecast +4.6%), dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and franc sales on buoyant GBP/CHF cross.


Technical comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in a bearish mode but stochastics is turning bullish near the oversold zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Friday.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9385. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9350. The pivot point stands at 0.9500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9525 and the second target at 0.9560.


Resistance levels:

0.9525

0.9560

0.96



Support levels:


0.9385

0.9350

0.9315


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 12.74% to 21.99; S&P 500 closed up 1.29% at 1,886.76 Friday) after surprise rise in University of Michigan preliminary U.S. October consumer sentiment index to 86.4 from the final September reading of 84.6 (versus forecast 84.0) and stronger-than-expected 6.3% on-month increase in U.S. September housing starts (versus forecast +4.6%). But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the positive risk sentiment, NZD-USD interest differential and firmer dairy prices.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is in bullish mode five-day moving average above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8 and the second target at 0.8050. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7840. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8. The pivot point is at 0.7885.


Resistance levels:

0.8000

0.8050

0.8075



Support levels:


0.7840

0.78

0.7760


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 20, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is supported by the buoyant USD/JPY pair and Bank of England's chief economist Andy Haldane saying he favors keeping interest rates "lower for longer" as a weaker global economy, low inflation pressures and wage growth had forced him to reassess U.K.'s economic outlook and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is rising from the oversold zone, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Friday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.35 and the second target at 174. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 170.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 169.15. The pivot point is at 171.35.


Resistance levels:

173.35

174

174.25

Support levels:

170.20

169.75

169.15


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EUR/NZD analysis for October 20, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6026. Since we got strong rejection from our resistance level at the price of 1.6230б it is still very risky to buy. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from the most recent swings to find support levels. I got Fibonacci expanson 61.8% at the price of 1.5980. If the price breaks the level of 1.5980 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%), we may see testing the level of 1.5810 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand in a volume below the average.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6202


R2: 1.6247


R3: 1.6319


Support levels:


S1: 1.6057


S2: 1.6012


S3: 1.5939


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation.


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Gold : analysis for October 20, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,245.00. We are still waiting for larger volume and stronger price action. Our submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,245.00 is again on the testб so be careful when buying gold. If the price breaks the level of 1,245.00 in a high volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1,262.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe sideways movement in aт average volume. . Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. Any larger supply may confirm futher bearish movement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,239.08


R2: 1,240.42


R3: 1,242.60


Support levels


S1: 1,234.72


S2: 1,233.38


S3: 1,231.20


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance level.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for October 20-24, 2014

Overview :



  • As it is known, the sellers are asking for a higher price. And the supply zone has set between the levels of 1.6070 and 1.6187. The minor support is going to set at 1.6031. And this level is going to represent the weekly pivot point. So, the major support had already set at the price of 1.6031. Moreover, the double bottom also coincides with the major support. Thus, the support will be formed at the level of 1.6031 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 1.6135 level in order to break the double top. If the trend breaks the double top (1.6135), it will continue towards the weekly resistance 1 at the price of 1.6187 However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. So, it is to be placed below 1.6005.


The weekly technical levels of GBP/USD pair.


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Review :



  • The double top of the GBP/USD pair will set at the level of 1.6125.

  • The support is going to set at 1.6031. And this level is going to represent the weekly pivot point for October 20-24, 2014.

  • Moreover, the double bottom also coincides with the major support in H1 chart.

  • The price hit the weekly pivot point and the support 1 last week, because of the series of relatively equal highs and equal lows.

  • We expect a range of 293 pips this week.

  • It should be noted that the weekly range was large between 251 pips and 335 pips in the last three weeks.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for October 20-24, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair.


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Overview :



  • The support of the EUR/USD pair has set at the price of 1.2625 and this price coincides with the double bottom. The double bottom is set at the price of 1.2620. Therefore, the first key level will set at the price of 1.2620 and the second key level will set at the 1.2625 level today. Moreover, it should be noted that the area between 1.2600 and 1.2625 is representing strong support in H1 chart. Equally important, the price of the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2600 and 1.2755. Also, it should be noticed that the weekly pivot point is placed at the price of 1.2755 on October 20, 2014. Additionally, we should bear in mind that the range was about 266 pips last week, but we expect a large range about 280 to 300 pips this week. Furthermore, the trend was very clear indicating up move. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bullish market at the level of 1.2650. As a result, buy at the price of 1.2650 with the first target of 1.2766 , it might resume to 1.2885 in order to test the weekly resistance 1 around 1.2880 - 1.2890. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed below the support 1 level, hence it will be beneficial to set it at the price of 1.2595 this week.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 20, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6243


R2: 1.6186


R1: 1.6146


Current Spot: 1.6057


S1: 1.6025


S2: 1.6000


S3: 1.5970


Technical summary:


This correction grows more and more complex by the day, but it does begin to look like a triangle, which could be a good explanation, why this correction has become a complex as it has. If it is a triangle it also confirms, that this is wave iv of 3 and wave v should take us higher to 1.6830 before the next correction takes over. In the short term we would like to see support at 1.6025 protect the downside for a break above 1.6246 confirming a new rally to 1.6446 and the way higher to 1.6830.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR at 1.6190 with a stop placed at 1.5985 and we will place our take profit at 1.6800.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 20, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.27


R2: 137.00


R1: 136.78


Current spot: 136.63


S1: 136.47


S2: 136.23


S3: 136.00


Technical summary:


Wave a of Y ended a little early and we are correctly in wave b of Y, which could move higher to 137.67 before wave c lower takes over for a decline towards 130.59 - 131.52. The wave count in wave a has not been very clear, which has made it very hard to track probably, but with the break above minor resistance at 136.23 there can be no more doubt that wave b is unfolding before wave c lower.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at break-even was hit and we will look for a EUR-selling opportunity near 137.67.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 20, 2014

General overview for 20/10/2014 10:15 CET


The first resistance level has been broken and price has made a higher high on the intraday chart. The most important level right now is the narrow supply zone between the levels of 137.77 - 137.94 and any breakout higher confirms further upward price progression in wave B black. On the other hand, it looks like the weekly pivot will play a key role in intraday developments and a possible bounce and rebound is expected on that level. Only a breakout below weekly pivot should be considered as intraday bearish.


Support/Resistance:


137.86 - WR1


137.77 - 137.94 - Supply Zone


136.99 - Intraday Resistance


136.45 - Intraday Support


135.99 - Weekly Pivot


135.27 - WS1


134.11 - Swing Low


Trading recommendations:


As long as the price trades above the level of 135.99 the intraday uptrend is intact and higher prices are expected here. Please notice that this is wave B in the making so trading conditions might get choppy but overall buying the dips is the way to trade this market.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 20, 2014

General overview for 20/10/2014 09:45 CET


The count has been slightly changed as the previous waves 1 and wave 2 overlapped. The main reference level for this count is the key zone at the level of 1.1070, because any violation of this level invalidates the purple impulsive count and makes main labeling very probable. The current corrective cycle might be the beginning of a very large degree correction that will be complex and time consuming but there is no confirmation of this kind of wave progression just yet and it is still very possible that the impulsive wave sequence in form of 1-2, (i) - (ii), i-ii, (1)-(2) pattern will result with explosive upward progression soon. The first projected target is at the level of 1.1725.


Support/Resistance:


1.1381 - WR1


1.1293 - Intraday Resistance


1.1281 - Weekly Pivot


1.1209 - Intraday Support


1.1178 - WS1


1.1070 - 1.1080 Demand Zone |Key Level|WS2


Trading recommendations:


As long as the price trades above the level of 1.1070 the uptrend is intact and higher prices are expected here. Buying the dips is the way to trade this market, both for swing and daytraders.


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Technical analysis of Gold for October 20, 2014

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The yellow metal was rejected at 50Dsma, a high made at $1,249.30. The metal has been making lower highs for 3 days. Today, as of now it made a low at $1,234.30, trading above previous lows. The weekly support level is at $1,221.00 levels (20Dsma). In case of a daily close below 20Dsma, the bears again take the metal into their control for a downside target at $1,217, $1,215, $1,209 and $1,200 levels. We can see panic selling below $1,217 levels. For an intraday view, the prices are well supported by 34hrsma at $1,234.00 levels. We recommend selling below $1,234 and safe selling will be triggered below $1,231 for targets at $1,227 levels. For bulls, we recommend buying only above $1,238.00 levels for targets at $1,241-$1,242, strong rising is expected only above $1,242.00 levels. In case, if the metal successfully trades above $1,242 it can fly up to $1,252 and $1,268 levels.


Selling, below $1,234, safe selling, below $1,231.


Buying, above $1,238, strong upward momentum, above $1,242.


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Intraday trading recommendations on USD/CAD for October 20, 2014

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The pair made the highest close in 5 years in the weekly chart. For the longer-term perspective, in case if the pair monthly closes above 1.1279 we can see 1.1723 and 1.1938 in the longer term within intermediate resistance. In the previous week's session the pair made a high at 1.1386, but was unable to close above 1.1279, closing at 1.1277. If we go through the daily chart, we can observe a tail shadow and near-term cap at 1.1297-1.1300 levels. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.1300 for targets at 1.1385 levels. In case, if the pair closes above 1.1298 on a daily basis immediately we can see 75-85 pips on the higher side. On the weekly basis, the pair has support at 1.1257, 1.1227 and 1.1211 levels. The weekly support is at 1.1184 (20Dsma). Until the price closes above 1.1184, use s dip to buy. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.1184-1.1298 levels.


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For an intraday view, the prices have been trading below the key hourly moving averages. In the h4 chart, we can observe lower lows and lower highs. This strategy will be breached once the pair closes above 1.1298 levels. For an hourly view, the pair has support at 1.1260, below this, 1.1249 will act as hourly trend decider level. We recommend selling below 1.1249 for targets at 1.1235, 1.1222, 1.1211 and 1.1200.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 20, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German PPI m/m, Current Account, German Buba Monthly Report. The US will not release any economic data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2808.

Strong Resistance:1.2800.

Original Resistance: 1.2788.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2776.

Target Inner Area: 1.2746.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2716.

Original Support: 1.2704.

Strong Support: 1.2692.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2684.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 20, 2014

Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.73.

Resistance. 2: 107.52.

Resistance. 1: 107.31.

Support. 1: 107.05.

Support. 2: 106.84.

Support. 3: 106.63.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Intraday analysis on EUR/JPY for October 20, 2014

The pair broke below the base of the triangle in the weekly chart, but at the end of the week well managed to closed above it. The economic data from the Euro zone, especially from Germany is pushing the pair towards lower levels. In the daily chart, the pair prepared a minor base at 135.50. For the last 3 days the pair has been giving a strong close. Today, as well in Asia's session, the cross made a low above a previous close, but was unable to trade above 136.71, a previous days close. In case if the pair trades above 136.71 it can travel up to 136.82, the 38.2 fib level, 137.06 and 137.40, 20Wsma. We strongly recommend buying above 136.71 (a previous week's high). On a positional basis, the pair has strong resistance between 137.40 (20Dsma), 137.60 (50Dsma) and 137.81 (100Dsma).


Resistance: 137.40, 137.62, 137.93


Support: 136.47, 136.20, 135.50


Trade-


Buying above 136.71 for targets at 136.82, 137.06 and 137.38. Strong rising is expected above 136.95 (35DEMA) towards next targets.


Selling, below 136.35, panic, below 135.70.


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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/USD for October 20-24, 2014

Weekly key economic data-


The pair has some important key events during this week, especially on Thursday. Traders will eye Thursday's French and German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Spanish unemployment rate.


Weekly forecast


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In the daily chart, the pair closed above the 20Dsma and that provided good support. On a weekly basis, the pair has resistance at 1.2838, 1.287, 1.2901, and above these, 1.2945 (50Dsma) will act as strong resistance. On the down side 1.27, 1.2650 and 1.2570 will act as minor support levels. 1.25 will act as a key support level, below this, we can expect a free fall to 1.2430 and 1.22 (200Msma) levels. We recommend strong buying above 1.2838 levels, for targets at 1.2885 and 1.2900 levels. In case of a daily close below 1.2700, the bears may have an upper hand.


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Recommendation- For an intraday view, the prices has been trading below the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 21hrsma. The pair has been taking support at the upper end of the triangle in the h4 chart. For today's session, the pair has support zone at 1.2735 to 1.2728 levels, below these, 1.2706 will act as strong support zone. We recommend buying above 1.2762 for targets 1.2787, 1.2805 and 1.2830 levels, safe buying is expected above 1.2790 levels. We recommend selling below 1.2725 with targets at 1.2706, 1.2680 levels.


On a positional basis, overall the pair favors bears. Selling will mint the money.


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Daily analysis of USDX for October 20, 2014

On the daily chart, the USDX is trying to stay in the bullish trend above the support level of 85.18. However, the USDX could find resistance at current levels and fall to the support level of 84.29, because this instrument is forming a lower low pattern. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, which could favor the bearish bias on this chart.


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Dailychart's resistance levels: 85.18 / 86.20


Dailychart's support levels: 84.29 / 83.74


The USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern below the resistance level of 85.27, because the USDX has found strong support at the 84.81 level on several occasions, but in the H1 chart, the USDX still remains below the 200-day moving average, so the bearish outlook still remains alive in the USDX. However, caution is advised because the MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.27 / 85.49


H1 chart's support levels: 85.03 / 84.81


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 85.03, take profit is at 84.81, and stop loss is at 85.25.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 20, 2014

In the H4 chart, the GBP/USD continues to consolidate above the support level of 1.6051, so this pair has formed a fractal near the 1.6110 level, which could exert strong resistance on the GBP/USD. This pair is approaching the 200-day moving average resistance at the level of 1.6226, which would be the nearest bullish target on the road.


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H4chart's resistance levels: 1.6100 – 1.6226


H4 chart's support levels: 1.6051 - 1.6004


The GBP/USD has found strong resistance at the level of 1.6117. This pair is still trying to consolidate above this level. On the H1 chart, the MACD indicator remains in negative territory and GBPUSD has made a rebound at 200 SMA.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6117 / 1.6170


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6075 / 1.6031


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6117, take profit is at 1.6170, and stop loss is at 1.6065.


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