Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 8 - 2014

2014-10-08-EURNZD-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6255


R2: 1.6242


R1: 1.6228


Current spot: 1.6213


S1: 1.6194


S2: 1.6161


S3: 1.6142


Technical summary:


The break below 1.7078 is disappointing, and indicates, that we are not yet ready to a new impulsive rally. Therefore we should expect resistance near 1.6245 will be able to turn prices back down towards the support-line near 1.5977 before a new impulsive rally can be expected. Short-term break below support at 1.6161 will confirm renewed downside pressure towards 1.5977.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.6075 was hit for a nice little profit. We will re-buy EUR at 1.5985.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 8 - 2014

2014-10-08-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.32


R2: 137.18


R1: 137.08


Current spot: 136.95


S1: 136.90


S2: 136.84


S3: 136.69


Technical summary:


With a new low below 136.87 we should be looking for the third and final zig-zag correction lower to 136.28 before the correction from 141.22 is over. Once this correction is over, we should be looking for a new strong rally higher towards 141.22 on the way towards 143.79. At this point, only a break below important support at 135.80 will invalidate the bullish count for a move lower towards 133.52 and maybe even lower to 125.98


Trading recommendation:


Our stop+reverse at 136.85 was hit and we are now short EUR and will place a new stop+reverse at 137.85 and take profit, will be lifted to 136.35.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 8, 2014

eurddaily.jpg


Several congestion zones were established at meeting the downtrend line around price levels of 1.3800, 1.3580 and 1.3335 before further bearish decline took place.


The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2570 took place shortly after achieving the projection targets of the recent flag pattern.


Careful monitoring of price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.


The EUR/USD pair looked oversold and was trading beyond the lower limit of the channel.


This week, some bullish recovery was expressed off 1.2500 to push towards 1.2650 ( back inside the breached channel ). Thus, a bullish engulfing pattern is depicted on the chart.


eur4h.jpg


The current short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2870 (the recent consolidation zone).


The bearish slide below 1.2820 invalidated the possibility of a short-term bullish reversal.


A short-term bullish head and shoulders pattern is being established on the 4H chart. 4H closure above 1.2700 is essential to confirm the reversal.


Careful watching of price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.


Recommendation :


A conservative trader should wait for daily closure again inside the channel to look for long positions.


In case the bulls initiate a corrective movement around the lower limit of the channel being breached today, the first target levels to be visited should be located around 1.2870 and 1.2940 where the upper limit of the channel and significant Fibonacci level are located.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold analysis for October 08, 2014

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GOLDH408.png


Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,220.40. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,219.00. According to the daily chart, we can observe demand in a volume below the average. According to previous price action, we got resistance level at the price of 1,221.00 (swing high like resistance). Any l arger supply in a high volume may confirm further bearish movement. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,221.00, we may see testing the level of 1,230.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,214.07


R2: 1,.216.69


R3: 1,220.93


Support levels


S1: 1,205.59


S2: 1,202.97


S3: 1,198.73


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is on the test


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 8, 2014

General overview for 08/10/2014 10:30 CET

The overall Elliott Wave count has been changed to give the last chance for this triple zig-zag scenario to work out. The invalidation line is at the level of 135.80 and any breakout lower invalidates the alternate impulsive bullish count. That would mean the market is back to the triangle zone and the last breakout to the upside was a false one. On the other hand, the first bullish confirmation comes with golden channel breakout and the second confirmation comes with the key level breakout to the upside. Bullish divergence on momentum oscilator supports the upside case. Support/Resistance:

135.81 - Invalidation Level

136.24 - WS1

136.55 - Intraday Support | Wave B Low|

137.03 - Intraday Resistance

137.68 - Weekly Pivot

138.45 - WR1

138.97 - 139.15 - Demand Breakthrough Zone Trading recommendations:

Only a valid breakout above the level of 137.05 allows daytraders to open buy positions with SL below the level of 136.55. Otherwise, please refrain from trading for now. eurjpy_h1.jpg


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX technical analysis for October 8, 2014

The Dollar index continues to remain inside the upward sloping long-term channel and continues to be in a fully bullish trend. There are some short-term worries regarding a possible trend reversal as the weekly chart gives signs of a possible top. Until the end of the week, we will have a better picture of whether this trend is over.


usdxd.jpg

Green line = price channel


The Dollar index continues to trade inside the upward sloping price channel and above the Ichimoku cloud. Tenkan-sen and kijun-sen have not crossed and the index continues to trade above 85.50 and 85 support levels. Soon we will know if at 86.75 we have seen the highs or we should prepare for a new higher high towards 87.17 or 87.70.


usdx.jpg

The weekly chart remains bullish as price has held the 23% retracement at 85. Holding above this level will re-energise bulls and may push the index back above 86 towards 87. Important daily and weekly support is found at 85.50 and 85. A weekly close below 85 will signal that the top is in and we could expect a pull back towards 84.10 at least.


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Gold Technical analysis for October 8, 2014

Gold price continues higher towards $1,220 resistance. Price has broken above the downward sloping channel but remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Gold price has been below the Ichimoku cloud since August 15th and the $1,300 price level. Longer-term trend remains bearish. I still expect a move towards $1,000.


goldh4.jpg

Blue line= support


Green line= price channel


Gold price is testing important short-term resistance at $1,220-25. The support at $1,180 has provided a strong upward bounce that I believe is corrective of nature and that the longer-term down trend is still in control. At $1,235 we find the 38% retracement of the decline and the possible end of the bounce if we break above $1,225.


gold.jpg

Blue line = support


In the 30 minute chart above you see the short-term trend is bullish. This will be the case as long as Gold price is above the blue upward sloping trend line and above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is found at $1,210 and $1,202. Holding above these levels is critical for the short-term trend. Short-term target is $1,235 at th 38% retracement.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 8, 2014

General overview for 08/10/2014 09:30 CET

The lower channel line is still providing a support for bulls as the market keeps bouncing from it every now and then. From Elliott Wave point of view, the price has made a triangle shaped structure and the market is ready for an upside breakout. The first level of interest would be weekly pivot at the level of 1.1211 and the next one would be the lest swing high at the level of 1.1263. Please notice, that the alternative labeling indicates more complex corrective cycle in wave (2) and the recent upward progression might be wave X brown of this cycle. Only breakout higher above the level of 1.1277 invalidates this view. Support/Resistance:

1.1070 - 1.1080 - Demand Zone

1.1110 - Intraday Support

1.1154 - WS1

1.1194 - Intraday Resistance

1.1211 - Weekly Pivot

1.1278 - Technical Resistance Trading recommendations:

Buy stop orders from the level of 1.1183 with SL below the level of 1.1110 and TP at the level of 1.1222 has been triggered and are in play. SL might be now moved higher to the level of 1.1129.


usdcad_h1.jpgThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on USDX for October 08, 2014

USDXDaily.png


We recommend buying at the current market price at 85.66, using sl 85.18, with targets at 85.90, 86.00 and 86.10 levels. The prices are closed and trading below hourly key moving averages 12ema. In the early Pacific hours, the price was rejected at 34hrsma and drifted lower to 20Dsma. The prices are taking multi support at 85.18 in the h4 and daily chart. In case if the price falls below 85.18, it has the nearest intraweek support at 85.07 20Dsma. In case, the price closes below 85.07 on a daily basis, the intraweek trend turns down. The prices are consolidating in a trading range between 86.22 and 85.18. We can expect huge buying above 86.22 levels.


1412743107_USDXH4.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on EUR/JPY for October 08, 2014

EURJPYDaily.png


The pair is facing strong resistance at 50Wsma. It was unable to breach the level during the previous week. This week the pair is facing strong resistance at 20Wsma, at 137.91. In yesterday's deals the pair was again sold off and took the support at the 80.0 fib level on a closing basis and closed at 136.85 levels. Today the pair is showing a strong pullback in Asia's session with the support of at the previous low. The pair has resistance at 137.04 levels. The pair is trading on a bearish note, close below 50Wsma and 20Wsma represents short-term weakness. A close below 50Dsma represents near-term noise. Combined selling on every up move will mint the money.


EURJPYH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are trading below the hourly moving averages 35DEMA and 12ema levels. The pair is facing strong resistance at 137.04, 12ema and 18 hr high. We can see strong and safe selling at current market price. If the pair manages to breach above 137.04 it can fly up to 137.50, 137.76 and 137.87. Until the h4 candle closes above the descending trend line, use every up move to sell.


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Intraday trading recommendations on USD/JPY for October 08, 2014

USDJPYDaily.png


The BOJ kept policy unchanged. The bank will continue with the qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2%. In yesterday's session the pair dropped and closed below 20Dsma. In today's session ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes the pair is supported by buying at lower levels and facing strong resistance at 108.55. Today, as of now the pair made a low at 107.76, the 23.6 fib level in the weekly chart and pulled from the lows. We can expect fresh up move only above 20Dsma, at 108.55 levels. On the down side, if the pair again breaks below 107.76, it can extend its fall to 107.39, 107.10 and 106.80 levels.


USDJPYH4.png

For an hourly trading perspective, the momentum oscillators indicating pull back will take place. The prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. We recommend fresh buying above 108.44, targets are at 108.60, 108.75 and 109.00. In case if the pair manages to trade above 34hrsma at 109.0, strong buying will take place towards 109.25 and 109.45 levels. In the h4 chart, for the first time we can see lower high and lower low swings after a couple of months. The pair has support near 108.0 and 107.75.


Trade-


Buying above 108.44, safe buying above 108.60


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 08, 2014

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When the European market opens, there is no economic news to be released, but the US will release economic data such as the Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction, FOMC Meeting Minutes, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2727.

Strong Resistance:1.2719.

Original Resistance: 1.2707.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2695.

Target Inner Area: 1.2665.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2635.

Original Support: 1.2623.

Strong Support: 1.2611.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2603.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official analyst of InstaForex Group


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 08, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Current Account, BOJ Monthly Report, conomy Watchers Sentiment, and the US will release some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction, FOMC Meeting Minutes. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 108.87.

Resistance. 2: 108.66.

Resistance. 1: 108.45.

Support. 1: 108.19.

Support. 2: 107.98.

Support. 3: 107.76.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official analyst of InstaForex Group


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 08, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair is stalling at 1.5400 levels for now; after pulling back from 1.5470 resistance levels earlier. A push below 1.5375 would be still required to accelerate further downfall towards 1.5200. Immediate support is seen at 1.5300, followed by 1.5200, while resistance is fixed at 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains above 1.5550. The pair is poised to correct at least towards 1.5200 before resuming rally again. Please note that fibonacci 0.618 support and past resistance turned support region is also around the same level 1.5200/1.5180.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short for now, stop at 1.5560, target 1.5200.


Good luck!




The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis on USD/CHF for October 08, 2014

USDCHFWeekly.png


The pair opened this week on a bearish note and has continued its bearish move in a row of 2 days. After consecutive 7 weeks of weekly green candles, this week, as of now, in the weekly chart the bears have an upper hand. The pair erased its Friday's gain completely in Monday's and Tuesday's sessions. The pair has weekly support at 0.9489, the 61.6 fib level and 0.9465 (20Dsma). If the pair closes below 0.9465, the bears will have an upper hand and the weekly trend turns down. Today, as of now, in the Pacific session, the pair is unable to breach above the previous opening price. It represents that some more weakness is acting in the foreground, but ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, lower level buying we can see from 0.9560 to 9515 levels.


USDCHFH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below 12ema and DEMA. In yesterday's session the prices faced strong resistance at 35DEMA. In the h4 chart, the pair has hourly resistance at 0.9587, 0.96055 and 0.9625. Unless the pair passes 0.9625, on the down side we can expect 0.9518, 0.9505 and 0.9489 levels. If the prices fall below 0.9518, the selling pressure will increase to touch 0.9489 and 0.9465. Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, we expect a pullback from the lower levels. Huge buying will take place above 0.9625 and panic, below 0.9555.


Trade-


Buy at cmp 0.9567, target 0.9587, 0.9606 and 0.9625.


Selling only below 0.9555.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for October 08, 2014

The USDX has been consolidating under the bullish trend line at the level of 85.85, and now the USDX is trying to fall to the support level of 85.06. If USDX manages to perform a breakout at that level, it would be expected to drop to the level of 84.47, where the 200 SMA is located. However, USDX could perform a rebound at that level. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


USDXH4.png


H4chart's resistance levels: 86.20 – 87.35


H4chart's support levels: 85.18 – 84.29


On the H1 chart, the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 85.49, with the formation of a lower low pattern. However, the USDX could conduct a rebound at current levels, because the 200 SMA could serve as dynamic support in the USDX. However, on the downside, the USDX may fall to the level of 85.27.


USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.73– 85.95


H1 chart's support levels: 85.49 – 85.27


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.49, take profit is at 85.27, and stop loss is at 85.73.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 08, 2014

In the H4 chart, the GBP/USD continues to recover after the fall below the 1.6000 level, so far, the GBP/USD is trying to make a deep retracement to the resistance level of 1.6247, which is a pretty strong area. However, it is very likely that this pair will rise to the 200-day moving average this week. For now, we recommend caution when placing buy orders at current levels.


GBPUSDH4.png


H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.6247 - 1.6435


H4 chart's support levels: 1.6051 - 1.6004


The GBP/USD is consolidating above support at the 1.6075 level, because this pair performed a breakout at that level during yesterday's session. On the H1 chart, we can see that this pair is attempting to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6117. If successful, the next target would be the level of 1.6170. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6117 – 1.6170


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6075 – 1.6031


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6075, take profit is at 1.031, and stop loss is at 1.6118.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 07, 2014

USDJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in lower range. USD/JPY is undermined by the broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 85.76 versus 86.69 early Monday) as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will be patient in raising interest rates after focusing on the small amount of wage inflation in Friday's strong U.S. jobs report, and took profits on long-USD positions. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.419% versus% 2.447% late Friday), Japan exporter sales and diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 6.25% to 15.46, S&P 500 closed 0.16% lower at 1,964.82 overnight). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers. Daily chart is tilting negative as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is staging bearish crossover against 15-day MA.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics is in bearish mode,bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 107.95. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 107.65. The pivot point stands at 108.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.25 and the second target at 109.55.


Resistance levels:

109.25

109.55

110


Support levels:

107.95

107.65

107.35


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 07, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY to trade in lower range. Supported by rebounding GBP/USD and by sterling sales on cross trades versus major currencies, receding investor risk appetite and demand from the Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by soft USD/JPY undertone and Japan exporter sales.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 173.50. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 172.95. The pivot point stands at 175.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 176 and the second target at 176.65.


Resistance levels:

176

176.65

177.10

Support levels:

173.50

172.95

172.50


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com