Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 29, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is expected to continue its upside move as it is trading above the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further advance.

Therefore, as long as 112.35 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 112.90 and even to 113.25 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, short position is recommended below 112.35 with targets at 112.10 and 111.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position while the price below pivot point indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY, Stop Loss: 112.35, Take Profit: 112.90

Resistance levels: 112.90, 113.25, and 113.75

Support levels: 112.10,111.80, and 111.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2017

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We will keep our yesterday's negative outlook as the pair is moving downward and now trading at 0.9569. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.9605, and is likely to test its next support at 0.9550. The risk of a slide below this level remains high, as both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward, calling for a new pullback. Besides, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish.

Therefore, as long as 0.9605 holds on the upside, look for a new decline to 0.9550 and 0.9525 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9605, Take Profit: 0.9550

Resistance levels: 0.9630, 0.9660, and 0.9685

Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9525, and 0.9500

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USD/JPY continues its rise up perfectly, remain bullish

Price continues to rise nicely towards our profit target. We start adjusting our position to lock in more of our profits to rise the move all the way up. Our goal is to remain bullish above 111.94 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to at least 113.06 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

RSI (34) remains above its support at 52% and we remain bullish on price as long as it holds above this level.

Buy above 111.94. Stop loss at 111.40. Take profit at 113.06.

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NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to start selling

Price has shot up from our buying area and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below 0.7317 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish price action) for a push down to at least 0.7262 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 95% where we expect a drop from.

Correlation analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both expecting drops today.

Sell below 0.7317. Stop loss at 0.7347. Take profit at 0.7262.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 29, 2017

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Our yesterday's upside target of around 115 pips has been hit. We still expect GBP/JPY to continue its upside movement and place our target at 147.00. GBP/JPY is expected to continue its upside movement above 145.30. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 145.30.

Therefore, as long as this key level holds on the downside, look for a new challenge to 128.25 and even to 129.05 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 144.85 with the target at 144.00.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 145.30, Take Profit: 147.00.

Resistance levels: 147.00, 147.90, and 148.50

Support levels: 144.85, 144.00, and 143.15

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to continue trading in a lower range and we will keep our yesterday's target intact. The pair recorded lower tops and lower bottoms, which confirmed the negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is capped by the bearish trend line.

Hence, as long as 1.3075 is not surpassed, expect a further downside to 0.7255 and even to 0.7240 in extension.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7320. Take Profit: 0.7255

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7355, 0.7375, and 0.7405

Support levels: 0.7255, 0.7240, and 0.7200

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 29, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR is the real market leader at present, and the strength in it has influenced most EUR pairs positively. The EUR/USD has skyrocketed and this seems to be the beginning. There is a possibility that price may gain additional 200 pips before the end of this week, as it is going further northwards.

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USD/CHF: As it is often mentioned, whatever happens to EUR/USD will have an opposite effect on USD/CHF. The market has dropped precipitously as a result of the rise of EUR/USD. Further southwards movement is anticipated today and tomorrow. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have impact on the market.

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GBP/USD: Just as it was anticipated, the Cable has gone vividly upwards, gaining about 250 pips this week, and forming a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price is currently above the accumulation territory at 1.2950, going towards the distribution territory at 1.3000, which is the ultimate target for this week.

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USD/JPY: Unlike certain JPY pairs which have gone significantly upwards, this pair is simply in a bullish bias, but there is nothing significant about it. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. As other JPY pairs (like the GBP/JPY, the CHF/JPY, etc.) remain significantly bullish, USD/JPY also may be forced to rally conspicuously.

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EUR/JPY: As it was forecast, the EUR/JPY pair has gone seriously northwards, gaining about 350 pips this week, and forming a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market is currently testing the supply zone at 128.00, and it is almost breaching it to the upside, after which the supply zone at 128.50 would be targeted.

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Мрачные перспективы доллара

Заказы на товары длительного пользования упали в мае на 1.1% относительно апреля, снижение отмечается второй месяц подряд, а темпы ежемесячного сокращения максимальные за 6 месяцев. Стремительный рост, вызванный ожиданиями запуска программы налоговой реформы и стимулирования производства, завершен, производственная активность в США замедляется. Индексы PMI снижаются до 8-месячных минимумов, региональные индексы также выходят с понижением.

Снижение заказов на товары длительного спроса имеет под собой и еще один аспект. На графике ниже можно видеть динамику восстановления корпоративных доходов после кризиса 2008/09 г. Примерно до 2012 г. корпоративные прибыли росли с той же скоростью, что и экономика в целом, однако затем наступило резкое замедление роста доходов, что особенно заметно по графику, отражающему прибыли корпораций после налогообложения.

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На текущий момент прибыли корпораций в абсолютном выражении те же, что и 5 лет назад. Соответственно, рост экономики обеспечивался в первую очередь восстановлением потребительского спроса, то есть ростом рынка труда, ростом располагаемых доходов и как следствие – ростом потребительских расходов.

Однако последние тенденции выглядят неутешительно. Объем розничных продаж в мае – на уровне двухлетних минимумов, равно как и потребительская инфляция, рост рынка труда упирается в естественные границы минимальной безработицы, а замедление спроса на товары длительного пользования указывает и на снижение потребительской активности.

Таким образом, ситуация с корпоративными доходами может иметь решающее значение для оценки перспектив экономики США. Агентство FactSet в очередном обзоре по состоянию фондового рынка США отмечает следующую закономерность. В то время как индекс S&P500 бьет очередные максимумы, большинство компаний, входящих в индекс, сообщают о снижении расчетной прибыли во 2 квартале относительно 31 марта 2017 г, то есть снижение корпоративных доходов в 1 кв. может получить развитие. Наряду с ослаблением потребительского спроса эта тенденция приведет к снижению собираемости налогов, что в свою очередь поставит под угрозу наполнение бюджета.

Выводы довольно неутешительны, доллар реагирует снижением, поскольку причин для его роста все меньше и меньше. Международный валютный фонд во вторник понизил прогноз по экономике США, отметив, что не видит перспектив реализации программы Дональда Трампа, в частности, таких её аспектов, как расходы на инфраструктуру и налоговая реформа. МВФ ожидает рост экономики не более 1.7% в год в ближайшие 5 лет, таким образом, снижение прогнозов против апрельских ожиданий 2.5% годового роста выглядит довольно мрачно.

Подобный вариант развития событий резко диссонирует как с прогнозом Бюджетного комитета Конгресса (CBO), так и с позицией ФРС, которые на фоне прогноза МВФ выглядят чересчур оптимистичными. Слабость экономики неизбежно вносит изменения и в настроения инвесторов, особенно на фоне заметно улучшившихся перспектив зоны евро. Игроки практически проигнорировали выступление в среду главы ФРС Йеллен, в котором она заявила, что «...финансовая система США в настоящее время находится в большей безопасности и более здорова, чем перед кризисом 2008 года...». Этот удивительный вывод противоположен настроениям игроков, которые начинают готовиться к худшему – к новой рецессии.

Возможно, ситуация изменится в пятницу, когда будут опубликованы данные по личным расходам и доходам в апреле, однако ситуация складывается так, что вероятнее выход данных не лучше ожиданий рынка, а хуже.

Доллар находится под давлением, причин для возобновления роста немного.

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Gold Goes From Hand to Hand

The fall of the dollar index to its lowest levels since early October has remained relatively unnoticed by gold. The fierce speech by Mario Draghi on victory over deflation and the temporary nature of the soft CPI drove up euro prices, however, traders in the precious metal market prefer to focus on different news. During the auction on June 26, futures were quickly sold within a minute, the amount was equivalent to 1.8 million ounces, which is more than Finland's entire gold reserves. A few hours later during forex trading of the European session on June 27, in just five minutes, buyers purchased 815 thousand ounces. Presumably, it was attributed to an erroneous order, which the market refers to as a "fat finger". Where the wrong key was pressed which executed a large position.

Dynamics of gold futures quotes

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Source: Bloomberg.

In general, the situation on the precious metal market is in favor of consolidation. "Bears" argue that given the acceleration of global GDP growth, global stock indices near record highs, consistent high risk appetite and the Federal Reserve's desire to continue the cycle of normalizing monetary policy, XAU/USD quotes should continue to rise in the direction of $1,230 and $1,200 per ounce. On the other hand, "bulls" expect a recovery of the medium-term uptrend while citing persistent political risks in the United States, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula as well as continued terrorist attacks. All these factors increase the demand for safe-haven assets.

The condition of the physical metal market is characterized as moderately negative. Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in May fell to 45 tons. It is nearly 40% lower than in April, and 60% less than the previous year. While retail investors are gradually increasing ETF stocks, institutional investors are pulling out from the specialized exchange-traded funds.

XAU/USD is supported by the fall in the dollar index, but the fact that Draghi's "hawkish" rhetoric sparked a rally not only in Europe but also in yields in US government bonds, casts doubt on the rapid recovery of the medium-term uptrend. Gold, which does not provide its owners the opportunity to receive dividends or interest, in calm conditions would not be able to compete with stocks or bonds.

At the same time, the fact that the IMF lowered its US GDP growth forecasts for 2017-2018 from 2.3% to 2.1% and from 2.5% to 2.1% and no longer expects Trump reforms to boost the economy towards the President's promised 3% growth, is a "bullish" factor for precious metals. If the situation in the United States is not as good as expected, perhaps the global economy as a whole will not be able to deliver expected results.

Technically, the rebound of XAU/USD from the support level resembles a false breakdown. If the "bulls" manage to push gold above the resistance by $1,254 per ounce and get a strong position there, the risks of a revival of an uptrend will increase.

Gold Daily Chart

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 29, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1300) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415 where a valid SELL entry can be offered if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Early signs of bearish rejection should be expressed by the bears around 1.1400. Otherwise, further bullish advance towards 1.1520 should not be excluded soon.

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Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite volatile due to a streak of negative economic reports from New Zealand. Recently, the trade balance report was published at 103M which previously was at 536M. The balance was expected to be at 420M. As export demand and currency demand are directly linked, the negative report is expected to put the New Zealand dollar under pressure in the coming days. Today ANZ Business Confidence report showed a rise to 24.8 which previously was at 14.9 but it failed to help NZD gain over USD today. On the USD side, the final GDP report is to be published in the US today. It is expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. The weekly jobless claims are also expected to be unchanged at 241k. If these economic reports provide positive data today, then we might see USD gaining over NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has already shown a good amount of rejection already today and is expected to decline further towards 20 EMA before proceeding up towards the resistance at 0.7370. If the price breaks below 20 EMA with a daily close, then we will shift our bullish bias to bearish with a downward target towards 0.7050 support level.

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Analysis of USD/JPY for June 29, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 112.74 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a bullish trend and a successful test of the horizontal base. The price also broke the 4H Camarilla resistance, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 112.90 and 113.10.

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.75

R2: 112.95

R3: 113.20

Support levels:

S1: 112.25

S2: 111.90

S3: 111.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for June 29, 2017

EUR/GBP is currently struggling at the edge of 0.8850 as of Hawkish Statement of ECB President Draghi and Bank of England President Carney signaling Interest Rate hike considering the upcoming economic global economic boom. Today EUR GfK German Consumer Climate report was published with a slightly better figure at 10.6 which was expected to be unchanged at 10.4, Spanish Flash CPI report was published with the worst figure at 1.5% which was expected to be at 1.6% decreasing from previous value of 1.9% and German Prelim CPI report is yet to be published which is expected to rise to 0.0% from previous value of -0.2%. On the GBP side, today Net Lending to Individuals report showed an increase to 5.3B which was expected to be at 4.0B, M4 Money Supply was published with a negative figure of -0.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 1.3% and Mortgage Approvals was published with an unchanged figure of 65K which was expected to decrease to 64k. To sum up, both currencies are in top form fighting for establishing a trend in the market where GBP is expected to have an upper hand due to Rate Hike bias in the market.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has rejected off the resistance of 0.8850 and currently being held by 20 EMA as a support. If the price breaks below 20 EMA with a daily close then we will be looking forward to selling with a target towards 0.8550 support level. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 0.8850 with a daily close above it, we will be looking forward to buying with a target towards 0.90 in the coming days. Currently, the market is in bullish bias until price breaks below 20 EMA with a daily close.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for June 29, 2017

EUR/JPY shown a good amount of impulsive bullish pressure after breaking above the corrective structure resistance of 125.80. After hawkish Draghi's speech, EUR has eventually got a boost to break above the corrective structure and proceed further upwards. Last week, a good amount of volatility struck the market and an upward trend seems to have started after the break. Today, Germany posted the Consumer Climate report with a slight better result at 10.6 which was expected to be unchanged at 10.4. Spanish Flash CPI report showed a decline to 1.5% which was expected to decrease deeper to 1.6% from the previous value of 1.9%. Besides, German Prelim CPI report is yet to be published which is expected to show a slight growth to 0.0% from the previous negative figure of -0.2%. On the JPY side today, Japan's Retail Sales report was published with a slowdown to 2.0%, worse than the forecast for a decrease to 2.6% from the previous value of 3.2%. The negative report from Japan provided EUR with support, so EUR gain more ground despite the mixed economic reports from the eurozone today. As of the current economic situation, EUR is expected to dominate JPY further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. Recently, the price has moved above the resistance of 125.80 with an impulsive price action. Currently, we are anticipating the price moving down towards the 125.80 to respect it as a support before proceeding further upward with a target towards 132.00 resistance area. As the price remains above 125.80 the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 29, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.30007 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a bullish uptrend and a successful test of supply in a low volume, which is a sign that buyers are ready for a higher price. My advice is to watch buying opporutnities today. I placed Fibonacci to find potetnial upward targets. The targets are set at the price of 1.3005,1.3040 and 1.3090.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3000

R2: 1.3030

R3: 1.3050

Support levels:

S1: 1.2950

S2: 1.2920

S3: 1.2890

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of USDCAD for June 29, 2017

The USD/CAD pair has moved quite impulsively after breaking below the 1.3260 level with a daily close. The pair had a good amount of struggle at this level and a number of false breaks. Finally BOC Governor Poloz hinted at a possible rate hike in the coming days. The Canadian dollar has hit a four-month high after BOC Governor Poloz stated that a rate hike is on the way and the oil price slump of 2014 is currently not bothering the currency much, which results in further gain in the CAD against USD. Today, the US Final GDP report is going to be published, which is expected to be unchanged at 1.2% and the unemployment claims data is also expected to be unchanged at 241K. Any positive high-impact economic report on the US dollar can inject a good amount of volatility in this pair, but in the long run, the Canadian dollar is expected to gain over US dollar.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently at the edge of breaking below the important level of 1.3000. If the price breaks below the 1.3000 with a daily close, then further bearish move towards 1.2830 is expected in this pair. On the other hand, if the price rejects off 1.3000 levels today and closes with a bearish rejection, we will be looking forward to buying with a target towards 1.3260 in the coming days. As of the recent impulsive bearish pressure, a certain amount of corrective price action is expected before the price makes a dive down to the 1.2830 support level.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the USD / CHF currency pair as of June 29, 2017

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the previous day (high-low): 68 points.

The distance of the past day: 224 points.

THE BIG PICTURE:

Trading recommendations:

Aside from the technical aspect, traders should also consider the fundamental data and their scheduled releases.

When there is a possibility to open deals in advance, switch to the smaller timeframe (M15-M30) and monitor the reversal of the trend indicators (e.g. Heiken Ashi) considering the price level and the possibility for a pullback.

Explanation of the picture:

Ichimoku:

Tenkan-sen - red line.

Kijun-sen - blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple stipple line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fall of the ruble can only worsen

The Russian ruble returned to a decline. The currency lost significant support due to the end of the tax period when exporters are expected to sell part of the forex earnings to the domestic market.

The weakening of ruble is takes place in the wake of recovering oil prices. This confirms the theory that the main driver of its strengthening last year and early this year was the attraction of federal loan bonds to Russian debt markets. The big gap in the interest rates of the Central Bank of Russia and the world's largest banks, as well as the actual artificial lowering of inflation, is largely due to the growth of the national economy. This bolstered the ruble in terms of currency liquidity and contributed to the demand for OFZ.

But as they say it, everything flows and everything changes. The Fed raised interest rates in June by 0.25% while the Central Bank of Russia, in contrast, dropped by the same amount. On the other hand, oil prices fell below the comfort level of $50 per barrel of Brent. The new US sanctions together with the decline in CBR's rate cut yields scared foreign speculators.

Russia's Ministry of Finance data on the placement of OFZ in the second quarter clearly point to a decline in demand for debt securities. It was not able to implement the full loan plan of 500 billion rubles as it only managed to attract 400 billion rubles. Today, another attempt will be made to sell OFZs for 35 billion rubles. And even if we assume that this will be successful, and we have doubts about this, the full loan plan will still not be reached. In other words, the dynamics of demand for government securities clearly show a loss of interest especially in the sector of foreign speculators for carry trade.

In our opinion, this process will continue and significantly strengthen if the US sanctions prohibit the sale of Russian debt securities to US investors. This will be a serious blow to the budget if the Russian Federation which at the moment is supported largely by public debt strategies. This means that they may need to create "hot-house" conditions for carry trade against the background of attractive OFZs.

If this happens, Russian authorities will again return to the "cheap ruble" strategy which will lead to the resumption of inflation and the depreciation of the national currency.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is trading below 1.1355 in a wave of optimism regarding the prospects of ECB stimulus reduction that is anticipated to be announced in September. On this wave, if the pair breaks 1.1355, it may rise to 1.1400 or even 1.1425. However, we believe that it should start selling for growth not only because of strong overbought market and strong local resistance levels but also because of the pending inflation data for the euro area which may show a decline. Based on this, we can assume that the pair may fall to 1.1270.

The USDJPY pair traded above 112.00 and may continue to rise until 113.00, if not only to consolidate above this level. It will also be supported by the positive US employment data which will be released next week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on June 28 EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD

For long positions on EUR/USD:

The euro is still capped at 1.1378 and several attempts to rise above that level have not yet led to success. In the afternoon, another attempt to continue the upward movement may be made, and the consolidation to 1.1378 would be a good signal to buy the euro in order to go back to the area of 1.1419 and 1.1464. In the event of a return to the 1.1354 level, it is prudent to postpone long positions until it reaches the area of 1.1332 and 1.1309.

For short positions on EUR/USD:

I advise against selling the euro today. The morning rebound from the 1.1376 level occurred against the backdrop of divergence. Still, the return of large sellers to the market is not observed. It is best to wait for an upward movement in the area of 1.1419 and try to sell for a rebound from this level with a small stop above. More active traders can be seen in the area of 1.1464.

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GBP/USD

For long positions on GBP/USD:

Buyers managed to work out the support level of 1.2797, which I advised to pay attention to in my morning review. So far, the upside potential for the pair remains. The break of the daily high will lead to the continuation of the upward trend with the new resistance level of 1.2856, the consolidation which opens the direct route to 1.2913, where I advised to take profits. If the pound drops again to 1.2797, it is sensible to postpone purchases until the 1.2761 level.

For short positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers will attempt today to keep the pair below 1.2856, and the formation there of a false breakdown, with a return to this level, will increase short positions for large players in order to revert to the area of 1.2797 and 1.2761. In the case of a repeated decline in the support range of 1.2797, without updating 1.2856, we can expect a larger drop in the sterling already in the area of 1.2761 and 1.2709.

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Fears of Indicators

  • MA (medium sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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The technical picture of the EURUSD on a "Regression Channel" for June 28, 2017

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The major channel of linear regression: direction - up.

The minor channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

SCI: 194.5268

Explanations:

During trading session on June 28, the EUR / USD pair continued to gain strength as it moves higher, however, there is no any hints that a correction will begin.

As of this writing, the price positioned on top of the moving averages and over the Murray level "4/8".

The acquired target for uptrend came in at Murray's level of "5/8" - 1,135.

The Heiken Ashi indicator colored the last bars in purple which means moving to a higher position.

Short positions can be found underneath the moving average line.

The nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1230

S2 - 1,1108

S3 - 1,0986

The nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1353

R2 - 1,1475

R3 - 1,1597

Trading recommendations:

Taking consideration of the currency pair, we believe that dealing with long positions are probable with a target of 1, 1353. The next objective can be found at 1.1475.

Aside from the technical report, the market participants should further analyze fundamental data along with the time of release.

Explanation of illustration:

Major channel linear regression - blue lines unidirectional movement.

Minor channel linear regression - purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the chart.

Murray levels - multicolored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi - the indicator bars coloring in blue or purple.

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Драги удивил рынок

Вчера произошло ровно то, что и должно было произойти при первом же намеке на реальное ужесточение монетарной политики ЕЦБ. В ходе своего выступления Марио Драги заявил, что экономика начинает восстанавливаться, а инвестиции расти, что является хорошим фундаментом для нормализации монетарной политики. И это все при том, что еще недавно глава ЕЦБ заявлял о том, что ставки будут оставаться низкими в течение длительного периода времени. Марио Драги не просто удивил рынок, так как от него не ожидали подобных заявлений, а взбаламутил его. В итоге единая европейская валюта подорожала почти на 200 пунктов. При этом уже вечером выступала Джанет Йеллен, которая не сказала ничего нового, так что рынку не стоит ждать нового повышения ставки рефинансирования как минимум до сентября. А вот фунт не смог поддержать рост единой европейской валюты. Хотя изначально он тоже рос. Тут все дело в постепенном отрыве фунта от евро вследствие Brexit'a.

Сегодня уже вышли данные Nationwide по ценам на жилье в Великобритании, темпы роста ускорились с 2,1% до 3,1%. Однако это никак не повлияло на фунт, хотя состояние рынка недвижимости является главным индикатором инвестиционной привлекательности британской экономики. Все дело в том, что после вчерашнего роста фунт и евро оказались сильно перекупленными и им нужен повод для коррекции. А вот потенциал роста крайне ограничен.

Таким поводом могут стать данные по незавершенным сделкам в США, число которых должно вырасти на 0,8%. Это означает, что довольно большое число сделок, которые еще не оформлены, переходят в следующий месяц. Если это так, то высока вероятность, что замедление инфляции в США носит временный характер.

Пара евро/доллар имеет все шансы снизиться до 1,1310, а затем до 1,1265.

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Пара фунт/доллар будет снижаться до 1,2775.

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Draghi Speech Set for Today's Session

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech during yesterday's session took on a much more informative stance as she mainly discussed the various technological advancements and globalization issues.

Should the EUR / USD pair reach its resistance range at 1.1380 points, then the currency pair might be able to test its range highs of 1.1420-1.1470 points, which can be further propelled by the next scheduled speaking engagement from ECB's Mario Draghi, whose hawkish comments yesterday triggered a sharp surge in the currency pair's value.

His statement also cemented investor speculations of a speedier tapering off of the ECB's QE policies within the eurozone.

Meanwhile, the NZD / USD experienced a widespread shutdown of long positions during yesterday's session. 1498634723_1.png

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Why did the Euro Drastically Decline?

Today's fundamental data for the euro zone supported the euro in the first half of the day, but it failed to break through the significant resistance level 1.1380.

Data from the national statistics agency Insee showed that the index of consumer confidence in France in June this year grew much stronger than projected.

According to the report, the consumer confidence index rose to 108 points in June, while the reading for May was revised upward from 102 to 103. Economists had predicted that the index will grow by only one point in June.

Household lending in the euro area also continued to grow in May.

Today, the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble issued his forecast on the time frame for raising interest rates in the eurozone.

As for the technical picture, the euro fell sharply at the beginning of the North American session, more than 80 from the highs of the day.

It is possible that traders rushed to take profits ahead the next speech by the President of the European Central Bank, against the backdrop of some inside information, after yesterday's significant euro gain of more than 170 points paired with the US dollar.

The fall of the euro may also be due to a common technical error, recently observed in gold, which fell within 5 minutes from the level of 1253 to the level of 1236, after which the entire decline was won.

In any case, the large levels that are now located in the region of 1.1300 and 1.1270, can provide significant support to the trading instrument and it is unlikely that large players will miss such an opportunity to reset the portfolio.

The British pound managed to continue its rally against the US dollar, rebounding from intermediate levels of support in the morning after the release of data that pointed to the growth in housing prices in the UK, which shows the solid position of the labor market.

According to Nationwide, housing prices rose by 1.1% in June compared with the previous month after a decline of 0.2% in May.

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Unexpected Optimism from Mario Draghi Boosts Euro

Today's speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was received by the market rather positively, and the break technical resistance in the pair EURUSD 1.1200-1.1210 caused the elimination of a number of stop orders of major players, which led to the appreciation of the European currency.

So what interesting did Mario Draghi say?

Despite his restrained tone yesterday, today, the ECB president said that the ECB policy should be persistent, but it is necessary to reasonably approach the adjustment of parameters in response to improving economic conditions.

Draghi also pointed out the fact that the ECB policy is working, and the effects on inflation will be gradually be reflected.

The ECB president also noted that the pace of growth in the euro area exceeded the trend level, and the growth itself is well distributed.

All this resulted in stronger demand for risky assets, particularly the euro, which helped it return to monthly highs.

But let's not rush and write off today's speech by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, scheduled for the second half of the North American session.

The pressure was on the US dollar today as data showed slower growth of US house prices in April this year.

According to S & P / Case-Shiller, the national housing price index in April this year rose by 5.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, after increasing by 5.6% in March.

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Economists expected that in April the index for 20 mega-cities would grow by 6% compared to same period last year.

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Global macro overview for 29/06/2017

Global macro overview for 29/06/2017:

The most surprising statement from yesterday's joint panel conference of four central bankers on ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra was made by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. During the discussion, he said that there may be a need to limit the monetary stimulation of the British economy if the trade-off facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) continues to lessen. In these circumstances, the policy decision would become more conventional. It stands in an obvious contradiction with his comments less than two weeks ago, so this rhetoric pushed the GBP / USD forward towards 1.3000 again.

In the UK, just after last year's referendum, the Bank of England, fearing a very severe slowdown, loosened its policy. Pessimistic forecasts did not materialize. Instead, there was a threat of higher inflation forecasts driven by Pound weakness. This is why the whole cycle of the interest rate hikes is not really on the table right now and possibly only one rate adjustment of last year's loosening could be expected. Such a scenario is already priced in by financial markets properly. It turns out that the financial markets are discounting rates by the end of 2018 by over 35 bps. This means that - contrary to monetary policy - the political risk associated with the Brexit negotiations and the weaker government is insufficiently reflected in the Pound valuation. Moreover, any further deterioration in the condition of the UK economy, for example as a result of slowing down real wage dynamics will increase the bearish pressure on the Pound, especially on the GBP/USD pair.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the golden trend line resistance around the level of 1.2915 and now is trading close to the technical resistance at the level of 1.2978 in overbought conditions. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2918.

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Global macro overview for 29/06/2017

Global macro overview for 29/06/2017:

The US Pending Home Sales data has surprised the market participants. The sales fell 0.8% in May compared with expectations of a 0.8% gain for the month and it was the second month in a row of a decrease. The Northeast was the only region to register year-on-year growth all other regions except the Midwest recorded a decrease in sales. Moreover, a much higher proportion of homeowners consider that now is a good time to sell, but there has been no significant increase in listings. According to National Association of Realtors (NAR), this situation might be an important part of the problem: a buying interest is sold, but there is not enough supply on the market right now. The last good month for home sales was in May when housing starts and building permits were weaker than expected.

The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown. The peak for the home sales was in March this year and since then the 5.6% high hasn't been challenged yet. On the other hand, the lack of enormous increase in home sales does not mean the US economy is slowing or slumping back into recession as since early 2015 the home sales are oscillating between -5.0 and 5.0 percent range. When the FED will again increase the interest rate and the US Dollar will be a little more expensive, the home sales should start to pick up again.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market just bounced slightly from the technical support at the level of 1.3008 after the technical support (now resistance) at the level of 1.13165 was violated. The trading conditions are oversold and there is a visible bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 29, 2017

Forex analysis review
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 29, 2017

Trading plan for 29/06/2017

Trading plan for 29/06/2017:

The US Dollar is still weak across the board, although changes do not belong to the largest. GBP and EUR are the strongest currencies from the G10 thanks to Draghi and Carney's comments yesterday. EUR/ USD attacks 1.14 and GBP/USD is at 1.2960. WTI oil has broken above important resistance and is approaching $45.00. Among the precious metals, the strongest is the palladium which has grown 0.6 percent. The gold ounce is trading at $1 253.

On Thursday 29th of June, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but market participants will pay attention to Mortgage Approvals data from the UK, CPI data from Germany, and Unemployment Claims and Final GDP data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 29/06/2017:

The CPI data from Germany are scheduled for release at 12:00 pm GMT and market participants expect a slight increase in inflation, from -0.2% to 0.0% on a monthly basis. Nevertheless, on a yearly basis, the inflation is expected to drop from 1.5% to 1.4%. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Despite the optimistic statements from the ECB, the indicator remains below the ECB target projections of 2.0%. The inflation growth will influence the EUR/USD pair and related crosses to move higher as the market is likely to intensify expectations for incoming change in ECB monetary policy. Yesterday's Mario Draghi remarks at the conference in Portugal are the best example of the current market sentiment towards the stronger Euro.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market broke above the 1.1400 level with a new high at the level of 1.1426 at the time of writing. Nevertheless, the whole move to is now overstretched and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and both of the indicators, stoch, and RSI. The nearest technical support is at the level of 1.1386, but much more important technical support is at the level of 1.1283.

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USD/JPY analysis for 29/06/2017:

The highly anticipated US Final GDP data is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect the data to remain unchanged at the level of 1.2%. The impact on the financial markets will be bigger if the data are revised higher. Nevertheless, the prospects for improvement in Q2 remain intact. Monday's revised estimate of the Atlanta Fed's GDP model projects a 2.9% GDP increase, more than twice the gain in Q1. The Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Q2 GDP as the median forecast for Q2 GDP growth is 3.0%, according to CNBC latest survey. On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund has cut its US GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.1% from 2.3%.The main reason for the decrease is Trump's administration policy uncertainties. Clearly, we have two completely opposite points of view for the US GDP and it makes this data release even more interesting.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is still trading just below the 61%Fibo at the level of 112.23 and below the technical resistance at the level of 112.46. The odds for a further upside breakout are decreasing as there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator. On the other hand, if the US data surprise global investors there will be still a chance for a quick rally to the level of 113.13. Otherwise, a corrective pullback towards the next technical support at the level of 110.81 is expected.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 29, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection was expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders can have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 29, 2017

The Dollar index has made new lower lows towards 95 as expected after breaking 96.50. This level is now important support. Trend is clearly bearish.

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Red line - resistance

Price in the daily chart is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Oscillators are oversold. Support now at 95. Resistance at 96.50.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Price approaching the lower channel boundary again. RSI (5) oversold and diverging. Weekly trend is bearish as price is below the Kumo. Important weekly resistance is now at 98. Channel resistance is at 98.50.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 29, 2017

Gold price remains below the $1,260 level. As long as the 4-hour chart is below this level we are in danger of a rejection and push lower towards $1,230. Bulls need to break resistance soon and make a move towards $1,280-90.

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Red line - resistance

The gold price has entered the 4-hour Kumo. The trend is neutral. However, bulls need to break above $1,260 in order for the short-term trend to change to bullish. Support is at $1,250. Breaking it will open the way for a move towards $1,239 and lower.

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The Daily candle remains above the Kumo. This continues to keep bull's hopes alive. However, it will need to start rising soon or we may see the cloud crack and break. The trend is fragile as the cloud is thin. So bulls need to step in now. I remain longer-term bullish Gold but I could not ignore the chances of a move back towards $1,200.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

The rally of the 1.5215 low is clearly impulsive and it should just be a matter of time before the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.5931 and 1.6252 is seen. Longer term, we are looking for a clear break above resistance at 1.6252 to confirm continuation higher towards 1.6759 and above.

R3: 1.5931

R2: 1.5801

R1: 1.5679

Pivot: 1.5600

S1: 1.5531

S2: 1.5448

S3: 1.5393

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5645 and will start by placing our stop at 1.5210 expecting to move it higher soon. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5450 or upon a break above 1.5679 and use the same stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY continues to rally nicely and followed the expected path almost to perfection. The rally in wave iii has reached its minimum target and could be topping near 128.14 for a short-term correction close to 126.80 before higher again in wave v towards 133.34. That said, we would prefer to see wave v/ of iii move a little higher to 129.09 before completing and set the stage for a correction in wave iv towards 127.00.

R3: 129.10

R3: 128.50

R1: 128.14

Pivot: 128.00

S1: 127.78

S2: 127.62

S3: 127.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.46 and will our stop higher to 126.40. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for a correction to near 127.00 before buying and use the same stop.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair still moves around the spot of 0.7250 and 0.7343. The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. Hence, it should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7205 which represents the daily pivot point. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.7205. The price was in a bullish channel since two days. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.7205, the market is still in an uptrend. In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (MA100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7344 and 0.7400. However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7122 (S1).
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues moving downwards from the level of 0.9701. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9701(this level of 0.9701 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to the bottom around 0.9591. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9660 followed by 0.9701, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9545. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9660 and 0.9545; for that, we expect a range of 115 pips (0.9660 - 0.9545).
  • If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9545, the market will decline further to 0.9500 in coming days. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend reversal signs. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9731, then this scenario may become invalidated. Also, it should be noted that the price is still trading around the spot of 0.9590.
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Daily analysis of USDX for June 29, 2017

USDX is accelerating the downside and it looks can reach the support zone of 95.77 in coming hours. If the index manages to consolidate its price action below 95.77, then it's likely to test the support area of 95.10. However, we expect a recovery to take place, focusing on the resistance zone of 96.77, which coincides with the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 29, 2017

GBP/USD had another bullish wave the helped to test the resistance zone of 1.2940, at which the pair is hovering currently. It needs to break above 1.2940 in order to post another high, targeting the resistance level of 1.3011. To the downside, if Cable retraces back below 1.2855, it can re-test the 200 SMA at H1 chart around 1.2780.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2940 / 1.3011

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2855 / 1.2756

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2940, take profit is at 1.3011 and stop loss is at 1.2867.

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NZD/USD on major support, time to start buying

We are seeing price test a key support level at 0.7264 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and the plan is to play the bounce up to 0.7317 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish price action).

RSI (34) sees an ascending support line holding up price really well. We remain bullish as it is right on pullback support.

Correlation analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both expecting bounces.

Buy above 0.7264. Stop loss at 0.7243. Take profit at 0.7317.

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AUD/USD on major support, time to start buying

Price is seeing major support above 0.7578 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect to see a bounce above this level for a rise all the way up to 0.7631 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) I seeing strong support above 8.3% where we expect it to bounce correspondingly with price.

Correlation analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both expecting bounces.

Buy above 0.7578. Stop loss at 0.7558. Take profit at 0.7631.

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