USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 22, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

Daily fixation above 1.2980 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opens the way towards the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for bearish rejection.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 22, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel).

As anticipated, the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel) offered a profitable SELL trade. T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900, and 0.6850. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 0.7300.

Confirmation requires DAILY candlestick closure below 0.6970 (Neckline). Projection targets extend down to 0.6760 and 0.6690 levels.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760-0.6700 constitutes a support zone to be watched for a possible BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 22, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts.

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario towards 1.2700 (the nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 22, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 8, recent bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), but on July 15 significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.

This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 will be needed to allow a bearish decline to 1.0820 (key level 2) where price actions should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair kept trading above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1170 and 1.1220 was executed as expected.

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1250 (Supply Level 1) for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed. However, temporary bullish breakout is being expressed above 1.1250.

Note that bullish persistence above 1.1250 allows further bullish advance towards 1.1400 (Supply Level 2) where a better SELL entry can be offered.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 22, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5637 in a high volume. According to the 4H time frame, I found strong resistance cluster and successful rejection from the price of 1.5635. There are few candle foramtions. I found double evening start and up-thrust bar, which is a sign that buying looks very risky at this stage. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks. The first take profit level is set at the price of 1.5490. Only if the price breaks the level of 1.5640, we may see upward continuation.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5620

R2: 1.5645

R3: 1.5680

Support levels:

S1: 1.5545

S2: 1.5552

S3: 1.5485

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for August 22, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,331.56 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found that Gold is in a strong downward bias. I found a resistance cluster at the price of $1,337.45. The price respected this resistance and created up-thrust, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks. Point of control for today is set at the price of $1,333.50. Major support today is set at the price of $1,331.80.

Hourly Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,340.90

R2: 1,341.60

R3: 1,342.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,338.50

S2: 1,337.70

S3: 1,336.50

Trading recommendations for today: Buying looks risky, watch for selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 22, 2016

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.3047 - 1.3159 a week ago. Today, the level of 1.3103 represents a weekly pivot point in the H1 time frame. The pair has already formed minor resistance at 1.3159 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.3239 because it represents the weekly resistance 1. So, major resistance is seen at 1.3239, while immediate support is found at 1.3047. If the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.3103, the GBP/USD pair may resume it movement to 1.3047 to test the weekly support 1. From this point, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.3103 and 1.3047. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market, but the current price should be crossed the moving average 100 from underneath. As a result, sell below the weekly pivot point of 1.3103 with targets at 1.3047 and 1.2977 in order to form a double bottom. On the other hand, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 1.3159.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 22, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair:
  • The price spot of 1.1326 - 1.1362 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1326 - 1.1362. So, the resistance levels are seen at 1.1326 and 1.1362. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the EUR/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 1.1362 (first resistance). Therefore, sell below 1.1326 with the first target at the 1.1250 level. ALso, it should be noted that the daily pivot point is seen at the price of 1.1250. Additionally, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the pivot at 1.1250, the market will decline further to 1.1182 in order to test the weekly support 2. However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 1.1362.
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Global macro overview for 22/08/2016

Global macro overview for 22/08/2016:

The poll made by Nikkei Research for Reuters agency showed, that the majority of Japanese investors say the latest government stimulus will make no real change and will not stimulate the economy well enough to get it back on track again. Moreover, investors think that the Bank of Japan should not ease monetary policy any further as their efforts to overcome deflation and stagnation have given no results whatsoever. In conclusion, an interesting point of view and overall sentiment among the Japanese investors is here to notice as the outlook is grim and negative towards BoJ actions.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The price is trading around the recent lows, and the bulls barely made it to bounce from the technical support at the level of 99.98. The price is still trading below all the moving averages and it looks like it is about to make another lover low. The most important support is at the level of 99.04.

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Global macro overview for 22/08/2016

Global macro overview for 22/08/2016:

This week main macroeconomic event is US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Market participants around the world have patiently accepted months of mixed messages from officials over the path of US monetary policy. Nevertheless, just on this Friday, FED chairwoman Janet Yellen could offer strong hints regarding the further policy towards higher borrowing costs in the world's largest economy. The interest rates are on the record-low levels and any hawkish tone of the anticipated Yellen's speech will immediately catch the attention of the bullish biased US Dollar investors.

Let's now take a look a the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The big, Brexit down candle had been retraced by almost 80% by bulls and now there is no real evidence of a reversal at this time yet. The key support is at the level of 1.1232. If this level is violated, bears will start to gain the control over this market again.

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Silver Technical Analysis for August 22, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around $18.91 level at this moment, after forming lows at $18.70 level today. Please note that the metal pushed lower beyond our expectation and also nullifies a triangle consolidation structure. The wave structure now reveals that Silver has completed a corrective regular flat a-b-c structure as depicted on the chart. Furthermore, the metal is taking support at fibonacci 0.382 levels of the entire rally between $15.70 and $21.13 levels respectively. If this count holds true, the metal should resume its last leg rally (wave 5) towards $20.80/21.00 levels going forward. The metal is expected to remain in control of bulls, till prices stay above $18.60/70 levels. It is hence recommended to remain long now, with stop below $18.40 level. Immediate resistance is seen at $20.50 level, while support is at $18.25 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is below $18.25, target is $20.80 and above $21.13.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 22, 2016

General overview for 22/08/2016:

Bulls have managed to move the price up to the golden trend line resistance around the level of 1.2930, which is in line with 38%Fibo retrenchment of the previous swing down. This is why the price is now at the key level. According to the count, the market should now break out in an impulsive fashion towards the next resistance at the level of 1.2982.

Support/Resistance:

1.2655 - Count Invalidation Level

1.2664 - WS2

1.2764 - Intraday Support

1.2778 - WS1

1.2976 - Weekly Pivot

1.2926 - Intraday Resistance

1.2930 - 38%Fibo

1.2982 - 50% Fibo

1.2988 - WR1

1.3088 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders on the dips during the corrective cycle, ideally around the weekly pivot zone. The SL should be placed below the level of 1.2764 and TP should be placed at the level of 1.2982.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 22, 2016

General overview for 22/08/2016:

The horizontal corrective cycle is still in progress, but there is a possibility that the bottom for the wave ii has been established at the level of 112.40. The wave progression looks choppy and full of whipsaws and the most important resistance at the level of 114.02 still hasn't been violated yet. Nevertheless, the market is still trading above all intraday moving averages, above the weekly pivot and above the golden trend line, so the break out to the upside might happen any time soon.

Support/Resistance:

112.31 - Intraday Support

112.97 - WS1

113.44 - Weekly Pivot

114.02 - Intraday Resistance

114.52 - WR1

115.02 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from current price levels with SL below the level of 112.30 and TP at the level of 114.00.

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Technical analysis of USDCAD for August 22, 2016

USD/CAD is testing short-term resistance at 1.2920 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last decline from 1.32. A rejection here will open the way for a new low towards 1.26.

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Blue lines - long-term triangle

USDCAD is back testing the broken long-term triangle pattern and the Kumo (cloud) resistance. Price is now challenging the 38% Fibonacci retracement. I expect a reversal from this level to new lows.

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On a daily basis price has also broken below the daily cloud support and is now back testing the breakout area. I expect price to get rejected and move to a new lower low towards 1.27-1.26.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY right at major resistance again, remain bearish.

Price is right at major resistance of 114.00 again (overlap resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci retracement) is our selling area for a further drop to 111.00 support (long-term Fibonacci retracement, key swing low support).

RSI (21) is very close to the 65% resistance where we expect a reaction from.

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Sell below 114.00. Stop loss is at 115.40. Take profit is at 111.00.

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USD/CHF profit target almost reached, turn bearish.

Price recounded perfectly as expected on Friday. We are almost at our profit target. We look to sell once price reaches our 0.9650 resistance level (graphical overlap resistance, Fibonacci retracement) for a drop to 0.9530.

Stochastics (21,5,3) is also seeing strong resistance at 92%, which we expect it to react from.

Our strategy would be to take 50% profits now and move stop loss to breakeven. Once price reached 0.9650, take the rest of your profit and turn bearish.

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Sell below 0.9650. Stop loss is at 0.9730. Take profit is at 0.9530.

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Gold Technical Analysis for August 22, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold dropped lower on Friday and has also made fresh lows today around $1,331.00 levels today, before pulling back higher. The metal has exceeded its drop more than our expectations but still keeps the wave structure bullish till prices stay above $1,330.00 level. Looking into the wave structure, the metal now seems to have terminated its wave 4 triangle consolidations at $1,331.00 level today. The metal should remain in control of bulls till prices stay above $1,330.00 level. It is hence recommended to remain long, with risk below $1,330.00 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,3555.00/56.00 levels, while support is seen at $1,330.00 level. Please note that the metal looks to be into its last leg (wave 5) rally and it is expected to reverse lower from close to $1,380.00/90.00 levels going forward.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop below $1,330.00, target is at $1,368.00 and $1,390.00

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 22, 2016

As long as EUR/USD is trading above 1.1220-1.12 there are more chances of another new higher high near 1.1380-1.14. Long-term trend remains clearly neutral as price is inside the one-year trading range of 1.06-1.17.

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Black lines - trading range boundaries

Price is approaching the upper boundary of the trading range and bulls should be very cautious in case we have another rejection and another run towards the lower end of the range.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red lines - price projection

Price is inside a short-term bullish channel and above the 4 hour Kumo. Price is expect to move towards the lower channel boundary and bounce for a new high near 1.1380. Cloud support is at 1.12. There are some divergence signs that should be worrying for bulls.

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A break out of the bullish channel and below the cloud at 1,1175 will open the way for a deeper correction towards 1.09-1.10. 1.14 Is very important resistance that rejected price last week. We could see a bigger reversal from the 1.13-1.14 area.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USDX for August 22, 2016

The Dollar index has held above its critical support of 94.15 and has bounced towards 95. Trend is bearish but at least now we have a first sign of a possible bullish reversal. 94 is critical support and a big bounce is highly probable to start from this area.

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Blue line - support

Red line -resistance

Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud but above the blue upward sloping trend line. Resistance is at 95.15-95.50. Support is at 94.15-94. I believe that there are a lot of chances of a bigger upward reversal from current levels. So we should be looking for long positions as long as price is above 94.

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Green line - weekly support trend line

The weekly view of the dollar index is not very promising after the rejection at the weekly cloud. The last defense level for bulls is the 94 level where the green trend line support is found. First big resistance is the 95.20 level and next the 95.85. Bullish as long as price is above 94 otherwise bulls are in danger of a bigger degree correction below 92.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 22, 2016

Gold price is trading above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,310. This is a short-term support that if broken combined with the triangle breakdown we should see some acceleration lower towards $1,310.

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Blue lines -triangle pattern

Red line - long-term support

Price is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart confirming bearish short-term trend. Support is at $1,332 and resistance at $1,351. Price has broken down out of the triangle and this is a bearish sign. Target is below $1,300 near $1,290.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Price remains inside the long-term bullish channel but with signs of weakening up trend and time for a pull back at least towards the weekly kijun-sen near $1,280-$1,290. If the blue channel is broken expect the weekly cloud to be tested.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 22 - 2016

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Wave summary:

The expected new impulsive rally looks increasing likely as long as we stay above support at 1.5448. As long as this support is able to protect the downside, we will be looking for more upside pressure towards 1.5839 and above here will call for a rally towards 1.6931 and above.

An unexpected break below 1.5448 will delay the expected upside pressure for a move closer to 1.5180, but likely not below.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5410 with stop placed at 1.5440, securing a small profit no matter what happens. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above resistance at 1.5649 and use the same stop at 1.5440.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 22 - 2016

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Wave summary:

Nothing new to add here.

We remain cautiously bullish for a break above 114.03 confirming our bullish count, that a long term corrective bottom was found at 109.48 and a new impulsive rally is building for much more upside. That said, we do acknowledged the possibility of a deeper corrective move closer to 110.80 but not below here. It is not our preferred outlook, but at this point we need to stay flexible.

Trading recommendation:

We will only buy a break above 114.03 with stop placed at 112.20.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 22, 2016

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Today, the Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 101.15.

Resistance. 2: 100.96.

Resistance. 1: 100.76.

Support. 1: 100.51.

Support. 2: 100.32.

Support. 3: 100.12.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 22, 2016

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Today, no economic data is going to be released from the European market and the US market, so amid this condition EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1350.

Strong Resistance:1.1344.

Original Resistance: 1.1333.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1322.

Target Inner Area: 1.1296.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1270.

Original Support: 1.1259.

Strong Support: 1.1248.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1242.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for August 22, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD went upwards by 200 pips last week, and tested the resistance line at 1.1350. There is currently a shallow bearish retracement in the context of an uptrend, but price is supposed to continue going upwards this week, reaching other resistance lines at 1.1350, 1.1400 and 1.1450. A bearish movement could force price to test the support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200.

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USD/CHF: This pair plunged into the support level at 0.9550 last week, closing above the support level. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and further downwards plunge could happen this week. However, a possible weakness in CHF, coupled with a possible weakness in the EUR/USD, might aid a significant rally in USD/CHF.

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GBP/USD: From Tuesday to Thursday, the Cable went north by 300 pips, reaching the distribution territory at 1.1350. Nevertheless, the upward movement is not serious enough to pose any threat to the dominant bias, which is bearish. This is even corroborated by what happened on Friday – a downwards correction by 130 pips. This week, further downwards pressure is possible because the Cable may be weak. For example, the GBP/CAD should plummet before the end of the week (owing to an expected stamina in CAD); and since GBP/USD is sometimes positively correlated with the GBP/CAD, it may experience a vivid bearish movement.

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USD/JPY: It is good to check what is happening on other majors so that one can fathom the situations surrounding a trading instrument of interest. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish in the long-term. The USD/JPY went sideways last week. It went further downwards on Monday and Tuesday and then consolidated till the end of this week. However, there should be a breakout this week, which might respect the dominant bearish trend or cause a near-term rally, especially when USD is strong.

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EUR/JPY: This cross consolidated throughout last week, which was something it also did the week before last week. This has caused the bias to become neutral. The neutral bias would come to an end this week or next, when a breakout occurs, which would most probably favor bears.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 22, 2016

The index moved into a recovery phase during last Friday, consolidating some gains above the support level of 94.32. The nearest resistance is at the 94.65 level, where we should see a breakout in order to rise towards the 95.00 psychological zone, where the 200 SMA at H1 chart is also located. However, if USDX chooses the bearish side, then it should break the 94.32 level to later test the 94.07 zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.65 / 95.00

H1 chart's support levels: 94.32 / 94.07

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.32, take profit is at 94.07 and stop loss is at 94.57.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 22, 2016

Despite a slow Friday's economic calendar, GBP/USD had a bearish session and now it'ts being supported by the 200 SMA at H1 chart. US Dollar is attempting to recover from recent losses, but the structure on the Sterling is still pointing to the upside, as long as it remains trading above that moving average. Next target on the bullish side is still placed at the 1.3170 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3085 / 1.3170

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3000 / 1.2935

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3085, take profit is at 1.3170 and stop loss is at 1.3000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com