Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 26, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range. It is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 17.86% to 15.64, S&P 500 closed 1.62% lower at 1,965.99 overnight) as concerns linger over global economic growth and geopolitical tensions--data this week pointed to stagnating growth across Europe and China, Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said Thursday the first interest-rate hike is inching closer, a bill introduced in Russia's parliament Wednesday would allow the government to take control of foreign assets on Russian soil, compensating Russians when their property is seized elsewhere as Western sanctions take their toll. USD/JPY is also weighed by the larger-than-expected 18.2% on-month drop in August durable goods orders (versus forecast minus 17.5%), lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.504% versus 2.569% late Wednesday) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the fewer-than-expected 293,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Sept. 20 (versus forecast 296,000) and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.19 versus 85.06 early Thursday) as the U.S. economy outperforms other major economies, ultraloose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japanese importers and positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 108.80. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 108.45. The pivot point stands at 109.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.70 and the second target at 110.


Resistance levels:

109.70

110

110.35


Support levels:

108.80

108.45

108.20


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 26, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting a 14-month high at 0.9515 on Thursday. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.19 versus 85.06 early Thursday) as the U.S. economy outperforms other major economies, contagion from weak EUR on CHF, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF upside is limited by the positions adjustment before the weekend and larger-than-expected 18.2% on-month drop in August durable goods orders (versus forecast minus 17.5%); lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.504% versus 2.569% late Wednesday).


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9540 and the second target at 0.9565. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9420. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9380. The pivot point is at 0.9455.


Resistance levels:

0.9540

0.9565

0.96



Support levels:


0.9420

0.9380

0.9340


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 26, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting one-year low at 0.7908 on Thursday. It is hurt by the comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that the Kiwi's real exchange rate is still above sustainable levels, and that experience shows that the ultimate adjustment can be large when the Kiwi starts to fall. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD crosses. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7835. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7805. The pivot point stands at 0.7975. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8035 and the second target at 0.8095.


Resistance levels:

0.8035

0.8095

0.8145


Support levels:

0.7835

0.7805

0.7775


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 26, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


EGBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment, sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But sterling sentiment is soothed by the comments from Bank of England Gov. Carney that the central bank is getting closer to the first rate hike--predicted by many economists in early 2015--although any increases is likely to be gradual and limited. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and positions adjustment before the weekend. GBP/JPY downside is also limited by the sterling demand on buoyant GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD crosses; positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics falling is from overbought zone, MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average and bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.


Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.30


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 26 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6291


R2: 1.6203


R1: 1.6150


Current spot: 1.6128


S1: 1.6070


S2: 1.6058


S3: 1.6031


Technical summary:


With the break above the base-channel resistance-line we should see acceleration higher towards 1.6203 on the way higher to 1.6407. Short term we will be looking for support at 1.6031, which idealy will protect the downside for the next rally above 1.6150 for a test of resistance at 1.6203 on the way higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5826 and will move our stop higher to 1.5810. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.6031 with the same stop at 1.5810.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 26 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 139.15


R2: 139.10


R1: 139.01


Current spot: 139.91


S1: 138.81


S2: 138.71


S3: 138.61


Technical summary:


The break below support at 138.47 has forced a short term recount. Instead of a 1-2 / 1-2 count, the rally from 135.80 to 141.22 only was wave i and the ongoing correction is wave ii. This wave ii correction could be over as it already has corrected 50% of wave i, but we need a break above minor resistance at 139.70 and more importantly above 140.22 to confirm, that wave ii is over and wave iii higher towards 143.79 is developing.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 138.40 was hit for a small loss and we will buy EUR at 137.95 or upon a break above 139.70.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com