GBP/USD. April 4. Results of the day. The British pound still tends to fall

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 164p - 159p - 140p - 137p - 75p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 135p (143p).

The British pound against the background of all the twists and turns with Brexit managed to rise to the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud, but today it has fallen in price, which is more logical from a fundamental point of view. We remind you that at the moment the British Parliament has not decided on the option of leaving the EU, which will satisfy the majority of deputies. With a grief in half, by a margin of one vote, the deputies adopted a bill that allows Brexit to be postponed to a later date. However, the EU does not want to postpone Brexit without guarantees of accepting the agreement reached with Theresa May. Thus, the whole procedure has once again reached an impasse, and even news on this topic has not been received today, which is rare. How this entire mess will end is still incomprehensible. Only one thing is clear – the pound will be inclined to fall until some decision is made on Brexit. How the pound has not yet gone to conquer new lows is unclear. From a technical point of view, the pair has now dropped to the critical line. In the case of overcoming this line, the trend for the pair will again change to descending. Then we will again expect a downward movement below 1.2950. Tomorrow, by the way, an important report of NonFarm Payrolls in the United States will be published, and if its value is low, then in the short term, the pound may again become more expensive. Otherwise, downward movement will follow, at least to 1.2975. Well, Theresa may can only re-negotiate with Juncker on transfers, and convince everyone that consensus is still possible in Parliament.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is being adjusted against the "golden cross". Thus, in the event of a price rebound from the critical line, the upward movement may resume. In this case, it is recommended to trade for an increase in small lots with the target at 1.3207.

It is recommended to open sell orders if the bears manage to overcome the critical line with the target at 1.2975.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 4. Results of the day. For a long time forces in opposition to the dollar, the euro was not enough

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 48p - 37p - 46p - 32p - 55p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 44p (41p).

The European currency paired with the US dollar on the penultimate trading day of the week once again rushed down. Once again, we observe a serious decline in volatility to a minimum. The euro was unable to develop the success achieved yesterday. It seems that traders have resumed the restrained sales of the EUR/USD pair. No important macroeconomic reports were published today either in the States or in the European Union. Thus, the obvious conclusion is that yesterday the pair has risen in price thanks to a whole set of macroeconomic reports in favor of the euro. Today, when the euro does not have fundamental support, the main movement has resumed. This means that in the near future, the pair can again start the test of the level of 1.1200, which this time can be successful, too little desire from traders to buy euros now. Also, from a technical point of view, the pair failed to reach even the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud during yesterday's growth, which once again indicates the weakness of the bulls. At the moment, the tool has already fixed below the critical line, which speaks in favor of resuming the downtrend. Thus, today or tomorrow, we can expect the pair to decline to the first support level of 1.1173 this week. If the pair confidently passes the level of 1.1200, then the way down will be open. As we can see, the strengthening of the euro requires serious fundamental support, which is now extremely rare.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has completed the upward correction and is now trying to resume the downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.1173 and 1.1131 in small lots are relevant again.

Long positions are also recommended to be considered as small lots with targets at 1.1258 and 1.1295 if traders consolidate above the Kijun-Sen line again.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 4, 2019

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GBP/JPY is testing support at 145.90, which ideally will protect the downside for the next impulsive rally above 147.00 confirming a continuation higher to 148.50 and 151.50.

Only an unexpected break below support at 144.92 will shift the bias towards the downside again for a decline closer to 143.79 and possible even closer to 141.00.

R3: 147.50

R2: 147.00

R1: 146.29

Pivot: 145.67

S1: 145.39

S2: 144.90

S3: 144.62

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 146.51 with our stop placed at 144.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: ECB Protocols and a weak report on Germany added pessimism to the market

The euro once again began to gradually lose ground in pair with the US dollar after the release of the report, which showed a weakening of activity in the manufacturing sector of Germany. The minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank, which were published today in the morning, also made a number of negative on the market.

According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany in February 2019 fell by 4.2% compared with January, while economists had expected their growth by 0.5%.

The fall is directly related to the decline in demand from countries outside the eurozone. Compared to February of the previous year, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 8.4%.

The Bureau noted that the data indicate more than serious problems in the manufacturing sector in Germany, and the lack of external demand will continue to have a negative impact on production.

The recession in the eurozone economy will last much longer than expected. Such conclusions can be made in the study of the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank, which took place on March 6-7 of this year. They indicated that the ECB leaders had discussed more aggressive incentive measures, as some members of the ECB leadership expressed concerns about the impact on banks of sustainably low interest rates.

However, it ended with the fact that the ECB leaders at any time can adjust their policies if necessary, and, apparently, such a need may appear in the coming months if economic indicators continue to decline.

As for data on the American economy, they supported the US dollar. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from March 24 to March 30 fell by 10,000 and amounted to 202,000. Economists expected the number of new applications to be at 218,000. Data for the week from March 17 to 23 were revised up to 212,000.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, a breakthrough and consolidation below the middle of the side channel in the area of 1.1220 will keep pressure on risky assets, which may lead to an update of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1185. In the scenario of returning to the resistance level of 1.1220, the bulls will try to build the lower limit of the new upward channel, using the minimum of this month in the area of 1.1184.

The British pound resumed its decline in pair with the US dollar. The data from the association of manufacturers and sellers of cars did not support the GBPUSD pair in the first half of the day, as they indicated a reduction in registrations. According to the report, the total number of registrations decreased by 3.4%, to 458,054, with the most registered registration of business class cars.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for April 04, 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $4. 994.The risk for the upside positions are increased.

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According to the H1 time-frame, we found that there is the fake breakout of the resistance at the price of $5.070. In the background we found climatic action, which is sign of the very emotional buying, which may result with the counter reaction from the sellers. After we took huge profit on the upside, we are now neutral to bearish on the BTC. Key short-term support is set at $4.646.

Trading recommendation: We got small short position on the BTC from $5.000 and with the target at $4.646. Protective stop is placed at 5.335.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 4, 2019

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EUR/JPY has been trapped in a trading range since mid-January, where the cross traded near 125.00. We are still looking for a deeper correction closer to 123.65 and ideally down to 120.95 as long as key-resistance at 126.18 is able to cap the upside.

Short-term a break below 124.45 would confirm more downside pressure towards 123.65 and below.

Only an unexpected break above 126.18 will shift the bias back towards the upside for a rally to 127.50 and above.

R3: 126.18

R2: 125.75

R1: 125.43

Pivot: 124.92

S1: 124.45

S2: 124.17

S3: 123.65

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 124.25 with our stop placed at 126.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for April 04, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.3080. We are still bearish and expecting more downside.

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According to the H1 time-frame, we found that sellers took control from buyers and that momentum on the downside is strong. The ADX reading above the 30 is clear sign of the strength on the current downward movement. In the background we noticed the breakout of the 20-h balance and this is another indication of the GBP weakness. Key resistance is seen at the price of 1.3195 while the key supports and our downside targets are seen at 1.3015 and 1.2980.

Trading recommendation: We are still holding our sell position from 1.3138 and we placed the stop lose on the breakeven. Now, we got risk free position. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3015 and 1.2980.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for April 04, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the key short-term support at the $1.281.00. Gold is in decision phase and at the key support.

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The Gold reached our downward target at $1.281.00 from the previous analysis and it is at decision level. ADX reading is below 20 level and this is sign that the trend is weak, so you should be careful at this point. Only if you see clean breakout of the $1.280.83 and pick up in the momentum you should watch for more selling and potential testing of $1.258.00. Very probable scenario can be that price go sideways for few sessions in waiting for next big momentum. Buying is also risky at this stage due to no big signs of reversal yet.

Trading recommendation: We closed our long our sell position on the Gold with a decent profit. We are neutral now but we are awaiting potential breakout of $1.280.83 to confirm further downward continuation and potential test of $1.258.00. To open sell position watch for breakout of $1.280.83.

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Will the Euro be able to take advantage of the positive that the US and China are creating?

The euro against the dollar remains under pressure due to the weakness of the macroeconomic indicators of the eurozone. In addition, quotes are influenced by the overall market sentiment regarding risk and the dynamics of the USD.

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Traders are now optimistic about the completion of a new round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

The positive mood of investors from Asia and the eurozone suggests that they believe in the speedy resolution of trade disputes between the United States and the Middle Kingdom.

According to IMF representatives, an escalation of the conflict in the form of a rise from 10% to 25% in duties on Chinese goods from the United States would cause the global economy to slow down. In this case, America may lose about 0.3 - 0.6% of GDP, and 0.5-1.5% in China, experts say.

"Progress has been marked on almost all issues, but we have not yet reached the final result; we hope that this week will bring us closer to him, "said by the economic adviser to the US president, Larry Kudlow, on Wednesday.

Progress in the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing has already caused the world economy to show signs of recovery. At least, this is evident in the index of purchasing managers of China. The gradual recovery of global GDP is far from the best news for a greenback.

At the same time, the Fed's unexpected rejection of plans to raise interest rates this year pushed stock prices upward, high-yield bonds and other risky assets.

As a rule, improving global risk appetite is a negative point for the US currency. In order to take advantage of the potential weakness of the "American", the euro as its main competitor, needs positive numbers from macroeconomic statistics. So far, the EUR/USD bulls can only rely on weak data on the US labor market in March, which will be published tomorrow. This will allow quotes to return to the range of 1.125-1.15.

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The pound is waiting for a decline to a 30-year low

The latest events around Brexit made it clear that the potential of forming a Labor government is becoming increasingly high. Early elections, which will lead the opposition to power, may contribute to the fall of the pound to the lowest levels in the last 30 years. In this situation, the ability of the Bank of England to normalize monetary policy will come to naught. Sterling will again be under attack, which will provoke a new "bearish" bias.

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In the short term, the growth of sterling is quite possible if the inter-party cooperation leads to a "soft" exit of Britain from the EU. However, the long-term consequences of Labor leadership, as well as high taxes, nationalization of industries and increased in regulation, will complicate the policy of the Central Bank of England. The economic and emotional impact of such a policy probably negates all the achievements of the program to increase the expenses of the current government. Such a change of government would initially cause caution among high-ranking representatives of the Central Bank and as a result, it would push them to soften the policy. For the pound, this is an outright negative.

If you do not take into account the policy, the prospects for tightening the policy in England look extremely weak. Therefore, the serious growth of the pound from current levels should not be expected.

The dovish shift of world central banks, coupled with political uncertainty, should force the Bank of England to be more careful which will leave the pound on a short leash.

Brexit

In the meantime, the sterling reserves the status of one of the most volatile assets of the foreign exchange market. This all happens for the same reason given the uncertainty around Brexit.

The pound rose after Theresa May's attempts to reach a compromise with opposition leader Jeremy Corbin regarding the withdrawal from the EU and after the adoption of the bill banning the implementation of the "tough" scenario. It came close to the resistance level of $1.3180 but then rolled back.

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It became known that the European Union no longer intends to give a delay to the United Kingdom's deadline on 12 April. According to the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, Britain should submit an alternative plan to Brexit in the coming days and ask for a long delay or leave the European Union without a deal.

The high risk of indiscriminate Brexit on Wednesday was pointed out by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

"The exit of Britain from the EU without an agreement will not happen intentionally and suddenly. There will be no transition period - it will be a sudden Brexit without an agreement," Mark Carney commented on the situation on Wednesday.

A significant increased risk of disorderly Brexit at any time can provoke aggressive sales of the pound. The target for the GBP/USD pair is still at $1.28 in the long term.

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GBP / USD plan for the US session on April 4. Buyers' optimism in the pound gradually decreases

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The pound is gradually falling amid the lack of positive news related to Brexit. At the moment, only the formation of a false breakdown in the region of the lower boundary of the side channel at 1.3122 will be a signal to buy the GBP/USD pair. However, the optimal scenario for long positions will be the test of 1.3072 minimum, where you can immediately buy for a rebound. The task of the bulls in the afternoon will be the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3188, which will lead the pair to the maximum near 1.3227 and 1.3265, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears kept the resistance at 1.3188, which led to a gradual decrease in the pound. While there is no news on Brexit, the pound will remain under pressure and a breakthrough of the lower boundary of the side channel in the area of 1.3122 will only increase pressure on it, which will return the pair to the minima of 1.3072 and 1.3030, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a growth scenario of the pound in the second half of the day, you can rely on short positions again from the resistance of 1.3188. Otherwise, you can sell directly to the rebound from 1.3227 and 1.3265.

More in the video forecast for April 4

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

Bears are trying to form a breakthrough of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3144, which only increases the pressure on the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Risk sentiment captured the foreign exchange market, the yen weakens on trading optimism

The yen is weakening as optimism regarding a trade deal between the US and China has raised its appetite for risk around the world, the pound is becoming more expensive after the British parliament approved a law for the transfer of Brexit. Participants in the trade talks in Beijing last week achieved "great success," and both sides are striving to overcome the remaining differences, according to the White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow. For the first time, China has officially recognized the problems that the States have been discussing for many years such as the theft of intellectual property and the violent transfer of technology by American companies doing business in China. This news helps to strengthen the dollar against the yen.

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Sterling received support when Prime Minister Theresa May managed to convince the Lower House of the British Parliament to approve a law that allowed Brexit to be postponed. In general, the market reigns in a risky mood but it is worth remembering that the market has already won back the positive expectations that Washington and Beijing will soon reach an agreement, therefore the further movement of some currencies raises serious doubts, especially considering the fundamental factors. Economic data from the United States did not meet market expectations and it will hold back the growth of the dollar. Activity in the services sector in March broke the 19-month minimum, the number of jobs in the private sector grew less than expected. All of these support the Fed's decision to suspend an increase in interest rates this year.

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So far, traders have apparently decided to downplay the importance of some weak data from the US at least until the publication of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, and focus on positive developments.

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Gold price will rise in the case of "hard" Brexit

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According to experts, the current strengthening of the US currency and the activation of stock markets put pressure on the price of gold. The precious metal price is largely influenced by the unstable geopolitical situation with Brexit. Investors expect a further increase in the price of the yellow metal in the case of the implementation of the "hard" option of the UK's exit from the European Union.

According to analysts, gold is in high demand during times of crisis, when investors want to keep their savings. An example of this is the situation in global stock markets at the end of last year when quotations began to decline, and the cost of precious metals showed growth.

However, in January 2019, the opposite trend was recorded. The American Dow Jones index increased by 12%, and the German DAX – by 10%, while the price of gold rose by only 1%. As for silver, it fell by 1.8%. This development surprised many investors, experts say.

Currently, the stock market shows a positive attitude caused by the repurchase of shares by a number of companies. It is noted that companies from the S & P 500 list sent $806 billion to buy their shares. This was facilitated by the tax reform of US President Donald Trump, which allowed corporations to obtain additional liquidity. As a result, the profit gained was not spent on economic development and joined the global stock market. From January to March 2019, American companies sent an additional $253 billion to repurchase their securities, experts say.

Investors in precious metals should remember that the growth of the stock market will put significant pressure on the price of gold and silver, experts remind. However, in the case of "hard" Brexit, investors in the yellow metal can expect an increase in the value of gold. In this situation, the precious metal will receive support for continued growth, as market players will want to keep their capital.

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Euro seems permanently stuck near $ 1.12, there is nowhere to wait for support

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The euro is stuck near the monthly low and probably will not be able to move to growth in the coming days amid signs of weakness of the German economy, which are overlap optimism about the US-China trade negotiations and a more "soft" Brexit. The euro will hang for a long time in the range of $1.12-1.16, especially considering the actions of the European Central Bank. Recall that in April, the single currency opened growth on the wave of signs of recovery in the region's economy and the news that trade negotiations between the two largest economies of the world seem to be moving forward.

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The euro began to decline after the data showed a reduction in the volume of industrial orders in Germany. In addition, the currency will not receive support from the ECB, which refused to tighten monetary policy. Taking into account all the negative factors in general, the euro still looks pretty good. Investors are advised to wait for the publication of the minutes of the March meeting of the ECB and to pay special attention to the details of the plan of the ECB on the issuance of new cheap loans to banks and to the debate about interest rates.

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GBP / USD: Brexit prospects are foggy, pound sterling awaits for a denouement

On the eve of the House of Commons, a bill was approved by a margin of one vote aimed at avoiding the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union without an agreement and obliging London to ask Brussels for a postponement of Brexit. Now, the document will be submitted to the House of Lords.

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It is noteworthy that the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker warned on Wednesday that April 12 is the deadline for the approval of the "divorce" agreement by the House of Commons. If this does not happen, then Brexit will no longer have a short delay.

At the same time, the EC Chairman stressed that if the deal is approved by the British parliamentarians then Brussels will be able to postpone Day X to 22 May.

Meanwhile, the impasse in which the "divorce" process once again came out has forced the British Prime Minister Teresa May to sit at the negotiating table with the leader of the opposition Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin. It is assumed that by the end of the week they can work out some general strategy regarding the country's withdrawal from the EU.

Thus, different options for further actions are at the disposal of Theresa May today.

First, it is "extraordinary", such as early parliamentary elections, which will only intensify the split in the British establishment. However, this will not change anything in essence or a second referendum.

Secondly, the "workers" that is to have a negotiation with Jeremy Corbin and finally push his deal through the House of Commons next week.

For the sake of being able to find a way out of the stalemate with Brexit, It is possible that London will decide to surprise everyone and take part in the elections to the European Parliament scheduled for May 23. Such a decision may give Foggy Albion a chance to get an additional postponement of the Brexit deadline or else completely remove from the agenda the question of leaving the country from the EU.

In this case, the United Kingdom will have to nominate its candidates for MEPs until April 24. As it turned out recently, the British government laid such an opportunity in the budget where the sum of 829 thousand pounds was reserved last year for the state election commission.

According to experts, a clear reflection of the situation in the UK is the foreign exchange market, where it has been a storm for the sterling pound for a month already. Quotes then break through the key levels and then come back. This is probably due to the fact that even the major players cannot decide on the action plan since the prospects for the development of events are unclear.

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While some analysts expect Brexit to be canceled since London will not dare to incur significant costs and risks associated with leaving the EU without an agreement (and this will be a positive scenario for the pound), others rely on the worst option in which the GBP / USD pair will first fall to the medium-term support of 1.25 and then drop to multi-year lows below 1.2.

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on April 4. ECB protocols are not surprised. The market is completely calm

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Statements that the ECB could adjust its policies if necessary led to a decline in the euro in the morning. At the moment, only a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.1248 will allow to form a new upward wave with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a further decline in the euro in the afternoon, it is best to consider new long positions if a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1218, which can be formed after data on the US labor market, or to rebound from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears have shown themselves in the area of resistance 1.1248 and again formed a downward wave in the euro. As long as trading will be conducted below this range, we can expect pressure to remain, which will lead to an update of the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, as well as its lower limit of 1.1186, where I recommend fixing the profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.1245 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions to rebound from the resistance of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1248 will strengthen the upward movement in euros.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 04, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1280. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1280 to the bottom around 1.1225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1280 followed by 1.1310, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1179. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1180; for that we expect a range of 102 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1280, the market will decline further to 1.1179. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1137 with a view to test the second support. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1280 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 04, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3087. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.3087 to a top around 1.3201 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.3140. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3206 followed by 1.3268 , while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3087 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3087 and 1.3268; so we expect a range of 181 pips in coming days.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3206, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3268) to test it.

Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3087 with the first target at 1.3206 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3268. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3268 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3087, a further decline to 1.2976 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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EUR and GBP: the euro and pound will find it difficult to continue growth against the US dollar

The British pound managed to keep its position in pair with the US dollar, even though the data released on the weak PMI for the services sector in the UK indicated a decrease in GDP in March of this year.

According to the IHS Markit report and a survey of purchasing managers, the index of activity in the UK services sector fell to 48.9 points in March, falling below the level of 50 points, indicating its decline. The decrease in activity in the services sector was recorded for the first time since July 2016. Economists had expected the rate to fall to 50.8 points in March.

As noted in Markit, a sharp decline in activity will necessarily affect the country's GDP in March, which only confirms the stagnation of the economy in the 1st quarter of this year.

However, the British pound did not show a serious fall after this report, as traders are full of optimism in the process of negotiations on Brexit. Let me remind you that the British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a meeting with the leader of the opposition Labor Party Jeremy Corbyn, who will launch the process of developing a Brexit compromise plan. Against this background, May asked for a longer delay from the EU as soon as the UK leaves the country.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, in order to maintain the upward correction of the pound, a break of resistance of 1.3190 is required, above which the bulls did not manage to get out yesterday. Only a confident consolidation at 1.3190 will lead the trading instrument to the test of local highs around 1.3265 and 1.3320. In the scenario of the pound decline, the support will be provided by the lower border of the side channel of 1.3115 and a larger level of 1.3070.

The European currency remained to be traded in a narrow side channel in pair with the US dollar after the release of weak statistics for the US, which signaled a slight slowdown in the growth of the labor market.

According to Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs in the US private sector in March this year increased by only 129,000, after rising by 197,000 in February. Economists had expected private sector growth of 173,000.

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Moody's Analytics noted that the US labor market is gradually weakening, and the growth in the number of jobs slows down noticeably in all sectors and companies. Let me remind you that tomorrow, there will be a more important report from the US Department of Labor on the number of jobs outside agriculture. Economists expect 175,000 jobs to be created outside of agriculture in March.

According to the data, PMI's purchasing managers' index for the non-manufacturing sector of the USA fell to 56.1 points in March from 59.7 points in February, while economists expected the index to drop to 58 points. Values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it generally remained unchanged. The buyers of risky assets, though they got close to the upper border of the wide side channel, but all they managed was to move it a few points. Now the main trade will unfold in the range of 1.1185-1.1250 with a middle in the area of 1.1218. Only a break of 1.1250 will lead to new highs of 1.1290 and 1.1330.

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GBP/USD. April 4. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May will try to negotiate with Jeremy Corbyn

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 118.5986

The currency pair GBP/USD still overcame the moving average line, so the trend in the instrument again changed to an upward one. Yesterday, late in the evening, the British Parliament with a margin of one (!!!) vote approved a bill that allows Theresa May to ask the European Union for a new respite for Brexit in order to avoid an unorganized exit. It is reported that next week, Theresa May will ask for a delay of at least 9 months. At the same time, Jean-Claude Juncker announced that London will not be given a new delay if the decision on an agreement on Brexit is not made until April 12. That is, London needs to accept an agreement with the EU, then further discussions of the transfer will be possible. It is also possible that May will request a postponement until May 22 in order to get time to negotiate with Labor Leader Jeremy Corbyn in order to accept her version of an agreement with the EU. However, there are still many "buts" in this whole story. First, in any case, Labor must still be able to agree. May's mere resignation, if her Brexit plan is adopted, does not suit anyone. We are still talking about the future of the country. Secondly, the Parliament has not yet decided on what scenario the country should leave the European Union. It is strange to see that against the background of this news, the pound is growing again. No important reports are expected from the States and the UK today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD has fixed above the moving. Therefore, purchase orders with targets at 1.3184 and 1.3245 have become relevant again. Until a new negative has been received from Britain, the pound may strengthen for some time.

Short positions will become relevant only after the price is fixed back below the moving with the first target at 1.3062. This option is more preferable, but the pound is now in a zone of turbulence, and traders simply do not always know how to react to incoming news.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 4. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Macroeconomic statistics helped the euro

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 92.1540

On Thursday, April 4, the currency pair EUR/USD adjusted to the moving average line, but has not yet been able to gain a foothold above it. What happened is what we expected. The pair once again failed to overcome the important support area of 1.1200 - 1.1270 and now, remaining within its limits, has all chances of forming an uptrend. However, this will require at least to overcome the moving average line. Yesterday, macroeconomic statistics helped the European currency. The report on retail sales in the Eurozone showed an increase of 2.8% y / y in February, with lower forecasts, the index of business activity in the services sector and composite employment also exceeded their forecasts. The report from ADP on the change in the number of workers in the private sector amounted to 129,000 in March (compared with a forecast of 170,000), the index of business activity in the ISM services sector was worse than traders expected (56.1 vs. 58.0). The indices of business activity in the services sector and the compound from Markit exceeded their predicted values, but could not cover all the previously obtained negative. Thus, now the pair needs to overcome the moving to rely on the continuation of strengthening. If this does not happen, then the tool can again rush down.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1200

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1261

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1322

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the current round of correction and resume trading for a fall with the targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered if traders manage to overcome the moving with targets at 1.1261 and 1.1292. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending, and the euro will have chances for strengthening.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 4)

The currency pair euro / dollar for the last trading day showed low volatility of 55 points, but still keeping us in the correction phase. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that for 8 trading days in a row, we have lowered average daily volatility, even though targeted movements with fairly optimal tactics are available on the market. Traders suggest that there is some restraint in connection with the events of Brexit, where Europeans seem to be preparing for something. As we return to the trading chart and its analysis, we see that the correction phase is now taking place from the level of 1.1180, where the quotation reached 1.1255, after which a slight stagnation is formed. The news background looks like a groundhog day: daily Brexit news. This time, UK's delay request of until May 22 was answered by the EU. This was regarding what Teresa May called earlier. On Wednesday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker spoke at the European parliament saying, "April 12 is the deadline for approval by the House of Commons concerning the withdrawal agreement. If this would not happen by this time, then there will be no more short delay. " At the same time, Juncker added: "The scenario without a deal at midnight on April 12 is now very likely. This is not the outcome that I want. But this is an outcome for which, I am convinced, the European Union is ready. " In principle, this was to be expected. On April 12, there were already postponements. The proposal to give a postponement to the end of May is still in force. England just needs to decide and take a firm decision. However, Britain lives in its own world. And in some ways they can be understood, they want to make it so that they feel good and not different. For the same reason, we now have all these long-running meetings with parliamentary votes, and the incomprehensible gatherings of Teresa May and Jeremy Corbin, where plans are nowhere to be made. Again, returning to the trading schedule, we see that there was no market reaction to this statement of the head of the EC. It is possible that there is some sort of reflection. At the same time, yesterday, the news background showed that optimistic statistics on retail sales in Europe first came out, with an increase from 2.2% to 2.8%. In the United States, ADP employment data was published, with a decline from 197K to 129K, with a forecast of 184K. Thus, even though the information background was ambiguous, and you could even say bad; however, regardless of which, the news background managed to support the euro, and we saw growth. Plans are lined up nowhere.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, there are no statistics. The only thing we have is the publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy, but even so, everything is known. What may be of interest to speculators today is the informational background regarding the comments of the head of the EC Jean-Claude Juncker, but this is already from British politicians.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a distinct stagnation in the framework of 1.1230 / 1.1255, which is clearly alarming for longists, since there is no place for short positions in the current stagnation. Now, traders are trying to either tighten the stops of their long positions or reduce them. At the same time, traders sat down at the monitors, tracking the breakdown of the boundaries of this cluster when placing further trading orders.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

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- Positions to buy, as he wrote in previous reviews, traders considered entry from 1.1180. Now, the position is being maintained. If we do not have deals, then it makes sense to take a waiting position, following the clear breakdowns of the upper boundary of the current cluster of 1.1255. The first fixation point for these transactions is 1.1270.

- Traders consider selling positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1225 (not a puncture), the prospect of a move towards the level of 1.1180.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term, a variable downward interest has appeared due to the current cluster. Intraday perspective is focused on the remedial course. Medium term retains a downward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 4 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 16 points. There is a ground for growth volatility, but for now we are considering fluctuations within the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 4. The pair took the first step on the way to building the rising wave.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, April 3, trading ended for EUR / USD by 30 bp and the minimum of the expected wave 5 remains unchanged, which still retains the chances of building an upward wave with exactly the upward trend. If the current wave counting is correct, then from current positions, the tool will continue to rise with targets located around 1.1450. Eurocurrency is of great importance now that it has been included in the news background. Yesterday, support was received from reports on retail sales in the EU and a weak ISM index in the US. However, it is not yet considered a fact for the pair to continue receiving this support in the coming weeks. Thus, the instrument can still make a successful attempt to break the wave minimum 5.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly has completed the construction of wave b. Now, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the 1.1455 mark, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a, based on the construction of wave c. Purchases should not be large in volume, as the news background may not support the euro in the coming days, which will force the markets to switch to new sales.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 4. The wave pattern is complicated

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Wave counting analysis:

On April 3, the GBP / USD pair added about 30 bp, but the attempt to break through the top line of the tapering triangle failed. Based on this, the pair retains the chances of building a new downward wave as part of a non-standard descending part of the trend. The whole wave pattern now looks ambiguous and may require adjustments and additions. The news background for the tool is now neutral, since there are no important messages about Brexit promotion. There are plans for new negotiations with the EU to extend the UK release dates. Yesterday, a decision was taken by Parliament. At the same time, before April 12, the UK should decide on the Brexit scenario and discuss it with the EU.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern involves the construction of a downward trend. However, the tool had serious difficulties in the breakthroughs of 30 figures. The breakthrough of the upper line of the narrowing triangle will indicate that the pair is ready to increase by another 100-150 bp. An unsuccessful attempt at a breakthrough may entail a reduction of the tool back to the area of 30 figure.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 4)

For the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 74 points, but at the same time, there is an ambiguous upward interest in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the first decline in volatility in six trading days. Speculators restrain their ardor? I deeply doubt that a certain regrouping of the received super profits is most likely taking place. At the same time, a veil of uncertainty wraps Brexit. Therefore, we have to be working out the psychological level of 1.3000, and then attempt to jump up to the area of the periodic level of 1.3200 (20), where there was an accumulation earlier. On the other hand, the news background shudders again at the long-running issue of Brexit. This time we have Europe's responses to England's request to give them a further extension. The head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, spoke last Wednesday at the European Parliament, where he said: "April 12 is the deadline for approval by the House of Commons of the exit agreement. If this does not happen by this time, then there will be no more short delay. " At the same time, the head of the EC added: "The scenario without a deal at midnight on April 12 is now very likely. This is not the outcome that I want. But this is an outcome for which, I am convinced, the European Union is ready. " On the trading chart, this news as such is not being played out, most likely, there is a reflection, since the news is extremely deplorable and based on it, the downward movement can resume. In Britain itself, alternative options continue to be discussed, where Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn agreed on a negotiation plan for developing compromise solutions. At the same time, the British Parliament passed a law requesting a new delay for Brexit. The document was approved by a margin of only one vote - 313 deputies were in favor, and the remaining 312 people were against. Analyzing the background in Britain, we literally do not understand what kind of floundering in a puddle, what kind of meaningless laws and plans which go nowhere, when the EU told them directly that the deadline is April 12, and then exit without a deal. After that, you can discuss as much as you want.

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Today, there is no news flow, since statistics are not coming out. Thus, we continue to listen to the information background, where new gems can come from England regarding the postponement, the agreement and, in general, on Brexit.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation came close to the earlier accumulation of 1.3200 / 1.3220, where the trading forces had been stopped and regrouped at the end of March. It is probably assume that a temporary turbulence at current coordinates, is possibly touching or entering the boundaries of the cluster. Considering everything that happens in the general plan of the information background, there is a high probability that the downward movement will resume. Thereby, traders are now monitoring the change in trading interest and price fixing lower than 1.3150.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

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- Positions for the purchase, as previously discussed, the speculators laid the upward position at the time of convergence with the level of 1.3000. Now, there is a process of fixing positions, where previously there was a discussion about the values of 1.3200-1.3220.

- Positions for sale are considered by traders when changing trading interest and fixing the price lower than 1.3150. The prospect of a decline is directed towards the levels of 1.3120-1.3070-1-3000.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that there is an upward interest against the background of the current correction in the short and intraday perspective. Meanwhile, the medium term preserves the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 4 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 38 points. It is likely to assume that if the market responds to the early information background and together with the current day's response, volatility can increase, reaching an average daily value.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 4. Pound buyers believe in Theresa May's success

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the British pound was in demand among traders even after a weak report on the service sector in the UK, as many expect that an agreement can be reached on Brexit and a more rigid scenario would be ruled out. It is best to return to buying the pound after the formation of a false breakdown in the intermediate support area of 1.3151, which will be a signal to open long positions. However, the optimal scenario for buying will be the test of lows of 1.3112 and 1.3072. The task of the bulls in the first half is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3193, which will lead the pair to a high near 1.3227 and 1.3265, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.3193 will be a signal to sell the British pound, and a re-test of support at 1.3151 may lead to forming a larger downward correction for the pound in order to update the lows around 1.3112 and 1.3072, where I recommend to take profits. Under the pound growth scenario, above the resistance of 1.3193 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new short positions to rebound from the highs of 1.3227 and 1.3265.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of an uptrend.

Bollinger bands

The break of the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3145 will lead to selling the pound. Growth will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator around 1.3193.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 4. Euro buyers urgently need an increase above 1.1250

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, the euro remained in a narrow sideways channel after growth, which was formed against the background of good reports on service activity and retail sales in the eurozone, however, in order to continue the upward trend, it is necessary to break above the resistance of 1.1248. A consolidation at this level will lead to a new upward wave with the update of highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend to take profits. In case the euro declines in the first half of the day, when the publication of the European Central Bank's monetary policy report is expected, it is best to consider new long positions for a rebound from a support of 1.1218 or from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears have shown themselves in the resistance area of 1.1250, and while trade will be conducted below this range, we can expect continued pressure on the euro. Most likely, the weak ECB report will return the demand for the US dollar, which will lead to an update of the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, as well as its lower limit of 1.1186, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.1250 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider short positions to rebound from resistances of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.1248 will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 04/04/2019

Macroeconomic data released yesterday, especially in the United States, somewhat alerted market participants. The fact is that the ADP data on employment, which precedes the release of the Department of Labor's report, showed an increase in employment by 129 thousand. They expected growth of 170 thousand, and employment increased by 197 thousand in the previous period. In other words, the growth rate of employment is quite significantly slowing. The final data on business activity indexes showed a decrease in the service sector index from 56.0 to 55.3, and the composite index from 55.5 to 54.6. But European statistics clearly inspires optimism as the growth rate of retail sales accelerated from 2.2% to 2.8%. Such a significant increase in retail sales allows us to ignore the composite index of business activity's decline from 51.9 to 51.6. Moreover, the business activity index in the service sector increased from 52.8 to 53.3. So it is not surprising that the single European currency was able to somewhat improve its position against the dollar. At the same time, weak US statistics made it possible for the pound to calmly move the news about the decline in the business activity index in the UK services sector from 51.3 to 48.9.

You also can not ignore the farce around Brexit, which also affects investor sentiment. Yesterday's events are clearly confusing, which made it difficult for market participants to decide on what and how to do next. So, at first everyone wildly rejoiced and clapped their hands on the fact that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn had a meeting where they agreed on a plan for further negotiations on finding a compromise option regarding Brexit. Although this news itself sounds extremely comical, some people thought this was not enough, and the House of Commons also joined the general circus and managed to pass a law obliging the government to exclude the possibility of a rigid Brexit, that is, without an agreement. However, the entire British political elite tritely ignored Jean-Claude Juncker's words that there would be no delays, and either the United Kingdom signed the agreement, or on April 12, it would be evicted from the European dormitory without any kind of "foreplay" as a transitional period. So it seems like the British politicians are certain that only they can decide how things will be, and the rest will only be notified of their decision. To their grief, the British empire is long gone, and awareness of this fact can be extremely painful, especially for the economy of the United Kingdom. It is worth paying attention to Jean-Claude's words that the European Union is ready for a hard Brexit, hinting that from about 2017, Brussels managed to adopt several dozens of laws and regulations that mitigate the consequences of such a scenario for Europe. Everyone is arguing about how much they need a delay in London. Although it is obvious that Europe has long prepared a hard kick in the ass for the UK.

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Today, it is better to wait for comments from British politicians regarding Jean-Claude Juncker's words from yesterday. Although all the king's army is so keen on picking up Humpty Dumpty that the piano in the bushes may not be noticed. But with the macroeconomic statistics today, everything is sad, since only data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States are released, which is seen to show a decline by 1 thousand. This should occur due to a decrease in the number of repeated applications by 6 thousand, while the number of primary ones could increase by 5 thousand. But today these data are of little interest to anyone, since the US Department of Labor's report will be published tomorrow, and investors will be preparing for it. Moreover, the forecasts are still moderately optimistic.

The euro/dollar currency pair, having felt support around the level of 1.1180, went into a correction phase, in the direction of the recent accumulation of 1.1250. It is likely to assume a temporary bump in the current values, where there is a prospect of a reversal towards 1.1215 - 1.1200 - 1.1180.

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During the week, the pound/dollar pair traced a corrective movement from the psychological level of 1.3000, reaching as a result, the boundaries of the recent accumulation of 1.3200 (20). It is likely to assume a temporary bump of 1.3150/1.3190 with the prospect of a further decline.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 4, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum at near $5,000 despite an impulsive bearish counter-move along the way. The overall bias is still bullish. Analysts share the viewpoint that the price could climb higher, thus reinforcing the bullish pressure.

The price is currently tarding at about $5,000 being held by the dynamic levels. The Kumo cloud is currently quite extended which indicates the strong bullish momentum in progress and strong support to push the price back higher if a retracement occurs along the way. Meanwhile, the price formed Bullish Hidden Divergence as well moving higher. This pattern suggests further bullish momentum with a target towards $5,250 again and later towards $5,500. As the price remains above $4,500 with a daily close, the impulsive bullish momentum will set the tone for the price action, so the price is going to create new highs in the short term.

analytics5ca590bcec995.png

SUPPORT: 4,000, 4,500, 5,000

RESISTANCE: 5,250, 5,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE but CORRECTIVEThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 4, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.3227 is the pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.3227 is the pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 4. The euro bounced off its lows

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency after the formation of the bullish divergence at the MACD indicator and a return to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). The retreat of quotations from this level on April 4 will allow traders to count on the pair's reversal in favor of the US dollar and resuming the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177). Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the probability of continued growth towards the level of 61.8% (1.1281).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair maintains the chances for a further fall towards the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). However, the previous low again did not let the quotes below itself. On the 4-hour chart, there was a reversal in favor of the euro, which could lead to a similar reversal on the 24-hour chart. Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level 127.2% (1.1285) will increase the chances for some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1281 if the pair closes above the level of 76.4%. The stop-loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop-loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for April 4. The pound maintains the upward mood

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair perfored a consolidation above the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3094), which allows us to expect continued growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.3300). Today, emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a return to the retracement level of 76.4%. The consolidation of quotations below this level will work in favor of continuing the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen the hourly chart, the rebound of quotes from the Fibo level 61.8% (1.3121) worked in favor of the British pound and the pair returned to the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3171). Closing of quotes above the Fibo level of 50.0% allows traders to count on continued growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 38.2% (1.3220). The strengthening of the pair under the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3220 and a stop-loss order under the retracement level of 50.0% if the pair closes above the level of 1.3171 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3121 and a stop-loss order above the level of 50.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3171 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for April 04, 2019

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Technical outlook:

An hourly chart has been presented here for EUR/USD to have a closer look at the wave structure. The overall drop from 1.1448 levels can be sub-divided into 5 waves, which have been labelled as Wave (1) of a higher degree here, at 1.1181 lows formed on April 02, 2019. We have been calling for an aggressive long position for the recent 2 days and the wave structure until now looks to be constructive for bulls. The rally from 1.1181 has unfolded into 4 waves until now and most probably the 5th wave seems to be in progress. Please note that the 4th wave went sideways as a contracting triangle, which is a normal guideline for Wave 4. Besides, prices have managed to take out initial resistance at 1.1250 levels, which is an encouraging sign for bulls. According to the above described potential wave structure, a 5th wave should push higher towards 1.1260 to complete Wave (A) within the 4-wave corrective rally proposed on the chart view here. In a nutshell, EUR/USD is set to push towards 1.1340/50 levels into a 3-wave corrective structure.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop below 1.1175, target is 1.1340/50

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 4, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1286 is the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1286 is the pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com