Fundamental Analysis of NZDUSD for February 25, 2019

NZD gained impulsive momentum with an opening gap today against USD. More macroeconomic reports and events will follow later this week.

Today New Zealand Retail Sales report was published with a notable climb to 1.7% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.5% and Core Retail Sales also jumped to 2.0% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to be at 0.8%. Ahead of Trade Balance and ANZ Business Confidence, NZD is expected to be quite volatile due to weak expectations, but if any positive outcome from the events occur then further gain on the NZD side is expected in the future. As ANZ Business Confidence has been pushing harder to regain optimism by crawling towards 0.0 since August 2018, any positive figure from upcoming ANZ Business Confidence is expected to provide impulsive pressure for the NZD gains.

On the USD side, the domestic economy has been underperforming in certain sectors that pulled back the currency from further growth. Though there are certain headwinds which affected the overall growth of the economy, but the government shutdown is still taken as the main catalyst. Recently the Federal Reserve stated in a report of economic scorecard that Trump's Administration undershot a little to ensure its 3% annual GDP target for 2018. As per verdict, the elements which affected economic growth are the impact of tax cuts and other policies warning, wider Federal Reserve's deficit, and trade protectionism. On the other hand, during this period the only thing which was in uptrend was employment growth. Ahead of FED Chairman Powell's Testimony this week, USD is expected to be trade with higher volatility and may lose certain momentum until any the US provides upbeat economic data.

Meanwhile, NZD managed to gain certain momentum. But the question is still open how sustainable and reliable the upcoming move will be. Though there is a greater likelihood of volatility as high impact economic events on both currencies are yet to be published this week. If investors remain optimistic about the upcoming economic reports, then further gains on the NZD side is expected.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently proceeding towards 0.6950-0.70 resistance area from where the price has certain possibility to push lower with a target towards 0.6700 area. On the other hand, a daily close above 0.70 is expected to lead to continuation of the bullish momentum with target towards 0.7150 resistance area in future. As the price remains above 0.6700 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for February 25, 2019

EUR/USD has been most volatile and unpredictable pair recently after breaking above the 1.1300 area with a daily close. The market is indecisive ahead of BREXIT and further trade talks between the US and China. So, there are reason behind the market indecision.

The European Central Bank recently stated that it would allot 2.0 billion Euros at its three-month operation and 6.0 billion Euros at its weekly refinancing tender. Additionally, Finance Minister of Germany Mr. Olaf Scholz stated that Germany has a greater possibility to escape the recession whereas the overall European economy has such chances as well. With the risk of trade conflicts and BREXIT being the headwind for the eurozone, recent data provided fresh evidence for a slowdown in the eurozone's economy, but it is likely to be short-lived. The positive hawkish statement drew market sentiment towards EUR but it is not enough for EUR to gain strong momentum in a certain direction.

On the other hand, USD has been affected by downbeat economic reports recently which caused USD to weaken across the board. Meanwhile, EUR is taking advantage of USD broad-based weakness. Recently the Federal Reserve stated in a report of economic scorecard that Trump's Administration undershot a little to ensure its 3% annual GDP target for 2018. As per verdict, the elements which affected economic growth are the impact of tax cuts and other policies warning, wider Federal Reserve's deficit, and trade protectionism. On the other hand, during this period the only thing which was in uptrend was employment growth. Ahead of FED Chairman Powell's Testimony this week, USD is expected to be trade with higher volatility and may lose certain momentum until any the US provides upbeat economic data.

Meanwhile, the pair is expected to be quite volatile throughout the week. On the one hand, EUR found support from the long-term growth forecast. On the other hand, USD failed short of reaching the target. As a result, EURO could win favor with investors in the coming days. Until the US comes up with positive events and economic reports to take place throughout the week, EUR is expected to lead the way.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the Pennant trend line resistance with a strong bullish momentum which is expected to lead the price higher towards 1.1450-1.1500 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.1300 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 25, 2019

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BTC has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $3.775. In the background, we found a fake breakout of the resistance at the price of $4.050. We also found a potential bearish flag in creation and our advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The key short-term support is set at the price of $3.610. Key short-term resistance is set at the price of $4.200.

Trading recommendation: We are looking for the breakout of the $3.775 to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $3.610.

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GBP/USD analysis for February 25, 2019

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End of the downward correction (expanded flat) in the background. We are bullish about GBP/USD in the short term and the key resistance is set at the price of 1.3215. The key short-term support is set at the price of 1.2967. There is also a breakout of the downward channel in the background, which is another sign of strength.

Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 1.3080 and protective stop at 1.3035. Objective target is set at the price of 1.3215.

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Analysis of Gold for February 25, 2019

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Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.329.60. According to the Daily time-frame, we found that there is the bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that Gold may trade lower in the next period. Gold did a successful test of the Keltner upper band at $1.346.00, which is another sign of weakness. Most recently, we got 3 -day balance and the key support at $1.321.00. Watch for a potential breakout of the support to confirm lower price.

Trading recommendation: We plan to sell Gold on the potential break of the support ($1.321.00) and with target at $1.302.15.

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February 25, 2019 : EUR/USD is demonstrating significant bullish recovery around the lower limit of its channel.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery (sideway consolidations) around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

Today, significant bullish recovery has emerged indicating a high probability of a quick bullish visit towards 1.1400-1.1460 where the upper limit of the daily movement channel is located.

On the other hand, please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420 while S/L should be advanced to entry level (1.1285).

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 25, 2019

Bitcoin has been the surprise instrument since its intorduction. It has again proved this status with a bearish impulsive daily close below $4,000 recently. After the price broke above $4,000 with non-volatile bullish momentum, it was quite certain for the bulls to dominate further with a target towards $4,250 or more but it rejected off the $4,200 area with strong bearish momentum which took the price below $3,800 area as well.

The price is held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Kijun, and Kumo Cloud as support while Tenkan is being neutral. The impulsive bearish Engulfing bar managed to engulf bullish pressure which helped in accumulating a bullish breakout above $4,000. According to the current price formation, the price is expected to push towards $3,500-600 support area before pushing higher towards $4,000 area in the coming days. As the price remains above $3,500, the impulsive bullish pressure and chances of bullish intervention are expected to remain intact.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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February 25, 2019 : GBP/USD Bullish intraday movement is about to be demonstrated.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 (50% Fibonacci level) within the depicted H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Hence, remaining bullish target is projected towards 1.3155, 1.3200 and 1.3240.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair currently has a significant demand zone located around (1.2940-1.2900) to be watched for BUY entries.

Bullish persistence above demand zone (1.2940-1.2900) remains mandatory so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards the mentioned bullish targets. Any bearish breakdown below which invalidates the whole bullish scenario for the short-term.

Trade Recommendations :

Any bearish pullback towards the depicted H4 demand zone (1.2940-1.2900) should be considered for a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2890. T/P levels to be located around 1.3040, 1.3155 and 1.3235.

Intraday traders can wait for a bullish breakout above 1.3100 for a bullish continuation position aiming for 1.3240 as initial target.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 25, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913 in the long term. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 25, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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EUR/USD technical analysis for 25/02/2019

EUR/USD technical analysis for 25/02/2019:

Horizontal moves are still present on this market

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair get stuck in a horizontal area located between the levels of 1.1316 - 1.1371 after a three wave bounce from the swing low at the level of 1.1234. The momentum remains neutral and as long as one of the important levels is not clearly violated, the consolidation will continue. The larger time-frame trend remains bearish ant this bounce is still considered as a local upward correction. Violation of the level of 1.3000 will accelerate the sell-off as the downtrend will be continued again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1473

WR2 - 1.1420

WR1 - 1.1380

Weekly Pivot - 1.1328

WS1 - 1.1280

WS2 - 1.1226

WS3 - 1.1185

Trading recommendations:

There is no good trading setup present on the EUR/USD market right now, so it is better to wait and see how the price will react when one of the levels (support or resistance) is violated. The daytraders should try to place the sell orders as close as possible to the level of 1.1366 with a tight protective stop loss. The target would be the other side of the range at the level of 1.1316.

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GBP/USD technical analysis for 25/02/2019

GBP/USD technical analysis for 25/02/2019:

Consolidation continues as the trend line makes the bounce possible for bulls

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair is still trading in a horizontal consolidation between the levels of 1.3052 - 1.3100 after the long-term trend line dynamic support at the level of 1.3000 has prevented further losses. The bounce from the level of 1.2967 was so far quite shallow and no new important development was made. The positive indication for bulls is the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern made after the trend line was done, which suggest the further move up towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.3108 is on the table.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3379

WR2 - 1.3241

WR1 - 1.3168

Weekly Pivot - 1.3018

WS1 - 1.2944

WS2 - 1.2805

WS3 - 1.2718

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders should still be kept open with a protective stop losses orders placed just below the support at the level of 1.2937. The first target is still seen at the level of 1.3108.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 25/02/2019

Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 25/02/2019:

Impulsive development is not done, correction time in wave 2.

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has mad a new high at the level of $4,245 which was labeled as the top for the wave 5 and the top of the wave 1 of a higher degree. After that, the market suddenly reversed as the corrective cycle in wave 2 of the higher degree has started. For now, it is hard to say whether the last sudden drop was a full wave 2 or just a part of the wave 2 in form of a wave (a) of the lesser degree. It all depends on the wave (b) and the form it will take. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of $3,850 - $3,881 zone, but the bulls might break out higher towards the level of $4,000 before the wave (b) is completed.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $4,708

WR2 - $4,470

WR1 - $4,118

Weekly Pivot - $3,886

WS1 - $3,537

WS2 - $3,284

WS3 - $2,810

Trading recommendations:

All long-term buy orders should be now closed as there is no good setup for entering this king of trade yet. Daytraders can try to open buy orders around the current price levels with a protective stop loss below the wave (a) low. The target is the resistance level of $3,881.

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Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 25/02/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken through the old wave A top at the level of $156.91 and made a new swing high at the level of $166.08 before a sudden reversal has happened. The reason was, that the five waves upwards structure has been terminated as the wave C of a bigger degree had been made. Currently, the price is in the corrective cycle that started with an impulsive wave (a) and made a low at the level of $130.96, just where the trend line support was. The nearest technical resistance is the zone between the levels of $142.22 - $145.40 and this area might be the target area for the wave (b).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $194.12

WR2 - $178.15

WR1 - $157.27

Weekly Pivot - $142.41

WS1 - $118.18

WS2 - $105.73

WS3 - $81.97

Trading recommendations:

All long term buy orders should be now closed as there is no good setup for entering this king od trade yet. Daytraders can try to open buy orders around the current price levels with a protective stop loss below the wave (a) low. The target is the resistance area of $142.22 - $145.40.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 25, 2019

EUR/USD continues to trade around the 38% Fibonacci retracement having made a base around 1.1310. Short-term trend remains bullish with potential target at least 1.14.

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Red line - important resistance trend line

Green line - important support trend line

Black line - RSI Support trend line

Blue line - short-term trend line support

Blue rectangle - second bounce target area

EUR/USD is making higher highs and higher lows in the short-term price. Both RSI and price respect their short-term support trend lines. As long as this holds, we should expect price to move towards the red trend line resistance and the blue rectangle target area where the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the red downward sloping trend line meet. Short-term support is found at 1.1310-1.1330 while resistance is at 1.1370 and next at 1.1410.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 25, 2019

Gold price is trading around $1,330 holding short-term important area of $1,326-30 once resistance now support. Price pulled back for a back test of the break out area and it seems that it was successful as price trades above it.

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Purple lines - bullish channel

Blue line -long-term resistance trend line

Gold price remains inside a bullish channel. Medium-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $1,300. The previous weekly candle had a long upper tail creating a bearish reversal hammer pattern. For this pattern to be confirmed bears will need to see a follow through to last weeks selling pressures. The RSI is at overbought levels and price is also very close to our longer-term target of $1,350. This is the time for longer-term traders to be cautious as a major rejection could take place. Short-term support is at $1,326 and if we see a daily close below it, we should expect a deeper pull back. Holding above $1,326 in the short-term could increase the chances of making a new higher high towards $1,350-60 area.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 25, 2019

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After a dip to 143.78 GBP/JPY seems ready to challenge resistance at 144.92 and a break above here will pave the way for a continuation higher towards 145.92 and 149.41 on the way to the 161.8% extension target at 151.50.

Support is seen at 143.78 and then at 143.55. Ideally the support at 143.78 will be able to protect the downside for the expected rally above 144.92.

R3: 145.92

R2: 145.53

R1: 144.92

Pivot: 144.35

S1: 143.78

S2: 143.55

S3: 142.23

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 143.15 with our stop placed at break-even at 143.15.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 25, 2019

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EUR/JPY remains locked in a narrow trading-range between 125.32 - 125.95. Ultimately a break above resistance at 125.95 is expected, for a continuation higher towards 128.31 and 129.46 on the way towards the 161.8% extension target, for wave iii, at 133.54.

We expect solid support at 125.32 will continue to protect the downside for the break above 125.95 that will pave the way for the next impulsive rally.

R3: 127.03

R2: 126.53

R1: 125.95

Pivot: 125.32

S1: 124.74

S2: 124.15

S3: 123.90

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.65 with our stop placed at break-even at 124.65.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for February 25, 2019

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart has been presented for EURUSD for a medium-term outlook. As seen here, interim support is seen at 1.1233 levels, and prices have broken out of the immediate resistance line. Please also note that prices also back tested the resistance turned support trend line at 1.1275 levels before pushing further towards 1.1370 levels last week. The EUR/USD pair is moving sideways for now and might be looking to drop towards 1.1290/1.1300 levels to find a fibonacci support of the rally between 1.1233 through 1.1370 levels respectively. Euro bulls should be looking to remain in control till prices remain above 1.1233 going forward, and push higher towards 1.1450 and 1.1500 levels respectively. On the flip side, only a break below 1.1233 would delay matters further for a counter trend rally.

Trading plan:

Remain long and look to add further on dips ahead of 1.1233 levels. Stop at 1.1230, target above 1.1500

Good luck!

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NZD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

NZD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 76.31 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 75.14 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 95% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.

NZD/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 76.31. Stop loss at 77.33. Take profit at 75.14.

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CAD/CHF Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

CAD/CHF is approaching its resistance at 0.7618 (100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 0.7584 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.

CAD/CHF is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 0.7618. Stop loss at 0.7645. Take profit at 0.7584.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Feb 25, 2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released, while the US will publish the economic data such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1401. Strong Resistance: 1.1395. Original Resistance: 1.1384. Inner Sell Area: 1.1373. Target Inner Area: 1.1347. Inner Buy Area: 1.1321. Original Support: 1.1310. Strong Support: 1.1299. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1292. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Feb 25, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 111.24. Resistance. 2: 111.02. Resistance. 1: 110.81. Support. 1: 110.54. Support. 2: 110.32. Support. 3: 110.10. (Disclaimer)

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