Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 24, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound from 108.80 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the bullish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified, which indicates a positive signal. The relative strength index has been supported by a rising trend line since August 23.

To conclude, as long as 108.80 holds on the downside, a further advance to 109.55 and even to 109.80 is expected.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 109.55 with a target at 108.65.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 108.80, Take Profit: 109.55

Resistance levels: 109.55, 109.80, and 110.25

Support Levels: 108.65, 108.30, 108.00

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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 24, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The sideways story for EURUSD continues as it is, but it can be predicted with more probability now that the pair is looking to have already topped out at 1.1830 levels or maybe push higher one last time through 1.1840/50 levels. Looking into the wave structure, a complex correction is taking shape as discussed earlier into an A-B-C and looks like waves (A) and (B) have already taken shape. Furthermore, waves 1 and 2 within wave (C) are also ready as labelled here. Till prices remain below 1.1830 levels, the above wave count should hold true. On the flip side though, a push through 1.1830 levels should test 1.1850/60 levels before reversing lower again. Traders are suggested to remain patient and look to sell on rallies going forward. Resistance should be strong at 1.1840/50 levels, while support lies at 1.1740 levels.

Trading plan:

Please remain short and look to add further at 1.1840/50 levels, stop at 1.1915, target 1.1600 and lower.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

GBP/USD finally bottoms out as we have been waiting since last several trading sessions. Today's intraday lows at 1.2773 looks to have finally bottomed out and a follow through rally over 1.2835 levels, confirms the same. Please take the current dip to 1.2810/15 levels as yet another opportunity to go long. Looking into the wave structure again, the pair has dropped 5 waves since 1.3267 levels producing wave (1) within the expected (5) waves drop. Today's bottom if holds true, would trigger a much awaited counter trend rally towards 1.3000 and 1.3075 levels as depicted here. Also notice that a push beyond the trendline resistance would accelerate the proposed rally. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2925/30 levels while support should be around 1.2770 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain on the long side, stop below 1.2770, target 1.2930, 1.3000 and 1.3075.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for a huge fundamental trigger coming out tomorrow with Jackson Hole speeches by Ms Yellen and Mr Draghi.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 24, 2017

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USD/CHF is turning down and expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 0.9700 (the high of August 23) and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Additionally, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To sum up, as long as 0.9675 is not surpassed, look for a new test to 0.9605 and even to 0.9585 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9675, Take Profit: 0.9605

Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9730, and 0.9775

Support levels: 0.9605, 0.9585, and 0.9515

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 24, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 139.65. The pair has bounced up from support at 139.25, which should limit the downside potential, and is holding on the upside. The rising 50-period moving average is playing a support role and suggests that the pair still has potential for a further advance. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

As long as 139.65 is support, look for a further advance towards 140.80 and even 141.10 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 139.65 with the target at 139.25.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 139.65, Take Profit: 140.80.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 140.80, 141.10, and 142.00

Support levels: 139.25, 138.60, and 138.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 24, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair failed to break above its key resistance at 0.7235 and consolidated on the downside. The declining 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one, which is a negative signal. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

As long as 0.7235 holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 0.7170 and even 0.7145 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7255, 0.7280, and 0.7315

Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7145, and 0.7100

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EUR/USD analysis for August 24, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1823. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a weakness in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I found series of lower lows and lower high, which is a sign that sellers took control from the buyers. The stochastic oscillator showing an overbought condition, which adds more power for selling. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1750.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1840

R2: 1.1875

R3: 1.1930

Support levels:

S1: 1.1755

S2: 1.1700

S3: 1.1670

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for August 24, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1.3000. Anyway, according to the 4H timeframe, I found a fake breakout of key resistance at the price of $1,291.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I found an evening start formation (bearish candle formation), which is another sign of weakness. Stochastic oscillator is showing an overbought condition, which represents a bullish extension. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,252.70.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,298.00

R2: $1,302.00

R3: $1,307.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,289.00

S2: $1,284.00

S3: $1,280.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 24, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the EUR/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.

On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 24, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the recent bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 in July.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

However, the recent bearish pressure was expressed around lower price levels (1.1880) which managed to initiate the current bearish corrective movement.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for a valid BUY entry during the current bearish pullback.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.1415-1.1520 for a valid BUY entry while risky traders can have a counter-trend SELL entry around the price level of 1.1880.

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Global macro overview for 24/08/2017

Global macro overview for 24/08/2017:

During his yesterday's speech at Lindau in Germany, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi did not provide any new information that would be relevant for the Euro. He stated that QE and the forward guidance were successful and emphasized, that monetary policy is bringing new challenges. More in the context of the future of monetary policy, the Chairman of the Bundesbank J. Weidmann told German newspaper Boersen Zeitung. He said there was agreement that the QE program could not be abruptly closed and that changing its parameters would have negative consequences. This obviously dovish statement indicates that the chances of a change of ECB monetary policy before the end of the year are negligible.

Today begins the central bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole. Investors still have to wait, as Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will be speaking tomorrow evening. The Euro bulls dominate the markets on hawkish expectations before the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's Jackson Hole speech. Although Draghi will unlikely let out any new and important details regarding the future of the ECB's bond purchases program, an optimistic view on the Eurozone's economy would enhance the chances of a hawkish policy action in September 7 meeting and keep the bulls in charge of the market.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of a narrow range between the levels of 1.1660 - 1.1845 as the market participants expect the Yellen and Draghi Jackson Hole speeches. Larger time frames outlook remains bullish.

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Draghi again supported the euro

Eurozone

ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at the forum of Nobel Prize winners in Germany, contributed to the increase of demand for the euro. In his speech, he focused on the positive results of the stimulus program, thanks to which the economy of the eurozone "shot up" and "works at full capacity." Another positive factor was the fact that Draghi did not say a word about the high rate of the euro, which the observers feared.

At the same time, Draghi made it clear that the asset repurchase program will be tapered early next year, despite the still low inflation. This is a bullish signal for the markets, but it has already largely recovered, as rumors of the impending completion of the program have been circulating in the financial scene since the beginning of the summer.

The approximation of correction is facilitated by the latest results of market research. Germany's economic sentiment indicator from ZEW fell to 10p in August, the lowest since October 2016, which indicates an increase in investors' fears about future economic growth. A similar indicator for the eurozone, in contrast, rose to 38.4p, and this is the highest since January 2008. According to IHS Markit, production in the eurozone is at a peak level for 6.5 years, meaning a strong currency does not hinder growth, and this is yet another signal that the euro's growth may continue.

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Despite the fact that the euro has a significant potential to resume growth, the players in the coming days will be much more cautious and will wait for new comments from Draghi and Fed Chairman Yellen, who are preparing to give their speeches in Jackson Hole. Investors will also wait for news from the United States, where, perhaps next week, large-scale agreement on tax reform between the Congress and the Trump administration will be announced.

United Kingdom

The British pound continues to decline, losing all its power. Before the meeting of the Bank of England on August 3, the market expected that at least three cabinet members would vote for an immediate rate hike, but the reasons for the hawkish position to become dominant have not increased, but declined. The only thing that can support the pound is the higher inflation than other countries, but according to other indices such as industrial production, labor market, real incomes of citizens, GDP growth rates, the situation for the UK looks worse.

Based on the latest report on inflation, it is clear that the Bank of England, in the matters of normalizing monetary policy, is ready to follow the lead of the Fed and the ECB. According to its own forecast, the growth rates will be lower, namely, the dynamics of the yield spread will not be in favor of British assets, even despite some improvement in the May forecasts.

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The pound, so far, does not yet have an idea if it is capable of returning to an upward trend. Today, updated data on GDP growth rates and investment volume for the 2nd quarter will be published. Experts do not expect positive changes, thus the pound will remain under pressure.

Oil

The decline in commercial oil stocks by 3.3 million barrels, according to the US Department of Energy, contributed to the increase of Brent quotations above 52 dollars per barrel. The market has not paid attention to the fact that the oil production in the US is increasing simultaneously, focusing on the data on reserves. Perhaps the reason for this selectivity is the research data, according to which the cost of production has been steadily increasing in recent months, which will inevitably lead to a reduction in the level of production in the near future and will ultimately help to find a balance between supply and demand.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for August 24, 2017

The US dollar index got rejected as expected after back testing the broken channel and cloud resistance. I expect the dollar index to push lower towards 91.60 over the coming weeks.

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Red lines - bearish channel

The dollar index is trading below the 4 hour Kumo. Yesterday we back tested the broken channel and the Kumo cloud. The rejection is a bearish sign. Support is at 93.10 and the next one at 92.90. Resistance is found at 93.40 and the next one at 93.55.

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The daily candles in the dollar index suggest a rejection and a push lower towards 91.60. A move of similar size with the first part of the decline from 97.60 is expected. Trend is clearly bearish in the daily chart with no reversal signs.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 24, 2017

Forex analysis review
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 24, 2017

Global macro overview for 24/08/2017

Global macro overview for 24/08/2017:

Very good data from the New Zealand economy were published overnight. The New Zeland Trade Surplus narrowed to 85M in July, from a revised 246M surplus the month before, although the decline was much less than expected than -240M deficit. This was the fifth month in a row when New Zealand reported a trade surplus. Moreover, it was a first July surplus since 2012.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency. The annual trade deficit remained at 3.21 billion in July, down from 3.65 billion in the previous month. Annual exports were worth 4.63 billion for the month and imports fell to 4.63 billion. The milk powder, butter, and cheese group led the rise in exports and the biggest buyer was China, which is expanding at a very fast pace, so the Chinese economy needs a reliable source of this goods. The second largest buyer was United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Philipines and the European Union.

Such a good data from the New Zealand economy might help to appreciate the New Zealand Dollar across the board in the near-term, but the global investors will wait for the confirmation from other indicators like GDP or inflation. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at the level of 1.75%. In the official statement, the RBNZ said, that monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for a long time, in order to support growth and guide inflation towards the RBNZ's target on a sustained basis. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly as the lower NZD is needed. The overall tone of the statement signals clearly that it is going to take a lot of accumulated evidence to warrant a departure from this cautious stance in either direction.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the daily time frame. There is head and shoulders price pattern evident on the chart with a neckline just around 0.7200 level. If this pattern is valid, then the projected target for the price is seen at the level of 0.7000. Nevertheless, the oversold market conditions do not support the bearish outlook just yet.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 24, 2017

Gold remains in a bullish trend. Price is moving sideways in the short-term but above the support line. Breaking above $1,295 will open the way for a move towards $1,320-40.

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Magenta line -expected path

Gold could push towards the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). There we should expect to see a bounce to new highs. The trend remains bullish. The support is at $1,282 and the next one is expected at $1,277. The resistance is found at $1,293 and the next one lies at $1,295.

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Black line -long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

Gold is in a bullish medium-term trend. The price is above the weekly Kumo and has broken above the long-term trend line resistance. Even if the price pulls back towards $1,250, this would be a gift for bulls. I expect the bullish trend in gold to continue for the rest of the year at least.

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Trading plan for 24/08/2017

Trading plan for 24/08/2017:

Today the symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole begins, but the most important speeches will be delivered tomorrow. Meanwhile, market volatility remains very limited. Currency movements do not exceed 0.1%, just like precious metals or oil. The ounce of gold costs $1,289 while WTI is at $48.35.

On Thursday 24th of August, the event calendar is light, but global investors will keep an eye on the second GDP estimate and Business Investment data from the UK, as well as the Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims from the US.

Analysis of GBP/USD for 24/08/2017:

The second GDP estimate and Business Investment data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect no change in the GDP estimate (0.3% q/q and 1.7% y/y). The Business Investment data are expected to decrease in the second quarter from 0.6% to 0.2% (0.7% to 0.3% on a yearly basis). This drop in positive expectations might find support in a recent study conducted by the UK Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC). According to the study, the issues like access to labour, Brexit negotiations and political uncertainty are creating nervousness among the employers. This drop in confidence will directly impact consumer sentiment and the GDP growth rate as a result (the consumer spending is an important contributor to the UK GDP). If the UK government chooses the hard-Brexit option, then the sentiment among the business people will drop significantly and it will further affect the EUR/GBP rate which is already at the very elevated levels.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the daily time frame. The price is trading very close to the 10 month's high at the level of 0.9268 and it looks like it will test this level again. Market conditions are extremely overbought at this time frame, but the momentum remains strong. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.9144, but the drop to this level might be only a short-term pullback, not a change in trend. If the level of 0.9268 is clearly violated, then the next technical resistance will be seen at the level of 0.9410.

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Market Snapshot: DAX fails at the trend line again

The German DAX failed to break above the trend line resistance around the level of 12,266 and it was rejected. Currently, the price is trading in some form of a triangle pattern as traders are waiting for a breakout in either direction. The oversold market conditions are supporting the bullish bias, but bulls are too weak to break out higher above the key technical resistance at the level of 12,338.

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Market Snapshot: Gold in the triangle

After a failure at the level of $1,300, gold dropped towards the technical support at the level of $1,280 and now is trading inside of a triangle formation. As long as no new low is made below the level of $1,280, the outlook remains bullish.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 24, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still trading upwards from 0.9639. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.9763 or 0.9800. The market has been trading around the area of 0.9639. The pair rose from the levels of 0.9639 and 0.9600 (these levels coincide with the ratios of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50%) to a top around 0.9733. The first support level is seen at 0.9639 followed by 0.9600, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9763. The USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9693 and 0.9763 in coming hours. On the one-hour chart, the immediate resistance is seen at 0.9763 which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100). Therefore, if the trend is able to break through the first resistance level of 0.9763, we should see the pair climbing towards the second daily resistance at 0.9800 to test it. However, it would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the last support 0.9600. The trend is still calling for a strong bullish market as long as the trend is still above the level of 0.9639.
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EUR/JPY remain bearish for a further drop

The price has reacted off our selling area perfectly. We remain bearish below major level of resistance at 128.97 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a strong reaction off this level for a push down to first 127.56 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) before 127.04 (Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is dropping nicely from our 93% resistance.

Sell below 128.97. Stop loss is at 129.54. Take profit is at 127.56 and 127.04.

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USD/CHF dropping nicely from our selling area, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has touched our selling area and reversed perfectly. We remain bearish looking to sell below 0.9669 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further drop to at least 0.9589 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). We also shift our stop loss to 0.9701 to protect our profits.

Stochastic (55,5,3) is dropping nicely from our 97% resistance and has good downside potential.

Sell below 0.9669. Stop loss is at 0.9701. Take profit is at 0.9589.

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NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a corrective bounce

The price has dropped absolutely perfectly and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7202 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up to at least 0.7331 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.3% where we expect a further bounce from.

Buy above 0.7202. Stop loss is at 0.7153. Take profit is at 0.7331.

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USD/JPY right on major support, remain bullish

The price continues to test our major buying support level. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support of 108.85 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 110.28 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is approaching our 2.3% support level where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 108.85. Stop loss is at 108.28. Take profit is at 110.28.

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AUD/JPY approaching major support, prepare to buy

We prepare to buy above major support at 86.02 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up first to 87.01 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) before a further push up to 87.38 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 1.5% where we expect a further bounce from.

Buy above 86.02. Stop loss is at 85.72. Take profit is at 87.01 and 87.38.

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AUD/USD dropping perfectly to our profit target, prepare to buy

The price has dropped perfectly from our selling area and is fast approaching our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7874 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) for a bounce up to at least 0.7928 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major support above 11% where we expect a further bounce from.

Buy above 0.7874. Stop loss is at 0.7857. Take profit is at 0.7928.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 24, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Belgian NBB Business Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Mortgage Delinquencies, and Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1872.

Strong Resistance:1.1865.

Original Resistance: 1.1854.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1843.

Target Inner Area: 1.1815.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1787.

Original Support: 1.1776.

Strong Support: 1.1765.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1758.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 24, 2017

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, Mortgage Delinquencies, and Existing Home Sales. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 109.73.

Resistance. 2: 109.51.

Resistance. 1: 109.30.

Support. 1: 109.03.

Support. 2: 108.82.

Support. 3: 108.60.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for August 24, 2017

USD/CAD has been very low in volatility and market momentum this week after breaking below 1.2700. The price was expected to continue its bearish trend towards 1.2450 this week but due to low pressure in the market, the price is likely to be stuck in a range. CAD has been better with the market sentiment lately and mixed economic reports on USD could not quite sustain the gains against CAD which resulted to further gain on the CAD side. Even today CAD Corporate Profit report which is going to be published is expected to provide a better outcome than the previous negative value of -7.4%. If the CAD economic report comes positive we are most likely to see good market pressure on the CAD side resulting to impulsive bearish move in the coming days. On the other hand, USD Existing Home Sales report is expected to increase to 5.55M from the previous value of 5.52M, Mortgage Delinquencies report is expected to have a decreased value which previously was at 4.71% and Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 44B from the previous figure of 53B. USD Economic reports are also expected to be positive in nature today, if the result comes positive today as forecasted then we might see the market being very volatile in nature and lead to more corrective price action for the coming days. To sum up, it would be very interesting to see whether CAD or USD comes up with better economic reports today which will determine the upcoming directional move in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing bullish rejection in the daily candle though the price action was quite minimal today. As the price remains below 1.2700 resistance level in this strong downtrend, the bearish pressure is expected to continue with a recent target towards 1.2450 support level in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 24, 2017

The index remains trapped in a range since several days ago and the 200 SMA in the H1 chart is providing a pivot point. The bulls are trying to gather momentum for a key breakout around 93.72 in order to extend gains towards 94.11. To the downside, if we witness a consolidation below 93.28, another leg lower could be seen and it could test the 93.97 zone.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.72 / 94.11

H1 chart's support levels: 93.28 / 92.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.72, take profit is at 94.11 and stop loss is at 93.33.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 24, 2017

The pair continues to ride a bearish bias below the 200 SMA (H1 chart) and the focus is now placed around 1.2761, as the next key support. If Cable manages to break below that zone, declines are expected to take place towards 1.2647 in a first degree. That's our preferred scenario so far, but with a break above 1.2843, one could expect a continuation to test the 200 SMA once again.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2843 / 1.2958

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2761 / 1.2647

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2761, take profit is at 1.2647 and stop loss is at 1.2873.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 23, 2017

EUR/JPY has been quite bullish but very volatile in nature recently after bouncing off from 128.50. EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports today which is clearly reflected in the charts as well. Today EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 55.8 from the previous figure of 54.9 which was expected to decrease to 54.5, French Flash Services PMI decreased to 55.5 from the previous figure of 56.0 which was expected to be at 55.9, German Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 59.4 from the previous figure of 58.1 which was expected to decrease to 57.7, German Flash Services PMI was published as expected at 53.4 which previously was at 53.1, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI showed increase to 57.4 from the previous figure of 56.6 which was expected to be at 56.3 and EUR Flash Services PMI decrease to 54.9 from the previous figure of 55.4 which was expected to be unchanged. By observing the reports, we can come to a conclusion that EUR has been quite positive with the Manufacturing PMI whereas Services PMI was found worse than expected in every case. Moreover, ECB President Draghi was quite neutral about short term interest rates and future monetary policies which lead to minimum impact in the market during the event. On the JPY side, today Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published which showed an increase to 52.8 from the previous figure of 52.1 which was expected to be at 52.3. The positive report did help JPY to gain some momentum but that could not sustain much further which as a result signals that EUR is quite stronger than JPY and further gain on EUR side is very probable.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support level of 128.50 with some bullish momentum in place. The price has been quite corrective and volatile for last few days and found rejecting off the 128.50 level for several times which explains the bullish presence in the market. As the price remains above the 128.50 with a daily close further bullish move towards 130.60 is expected in the future. On the other hand, if price breaks below 128.50 with a daily close then we will be looking forward to selling with a target towards 125.80 support level.

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Trading plan for August 23, 2017

Trading plan for August 23, 2017

The general picture: The markets are waiting for the meeting in Jackson Hole.

As we expected, the markets lagged behind in drift, not having important impulses for movement.

The severity of the conflict of the USA and North Korea has slightly decreased. Head Sev. Korea, though, sprays angrily in the direction of the US but is clearly not ready to receive a military strike.

Trump also rumbles and emits lightning on internal issues. Rattling with anger over the uncompleted wall with Mexico, promises to withdraw from the North American trade agreement but somehow his words are not taken seriously already.

The US market interrupted the decline and showed a sharp increase + 1% - also a stop.

The foreign exchange market is stuck in narrow ranges.

EUR/USD

The daily range of 1.1660 - 1.1830, we will open positions on the breakthrough of borders.

More aggressively, the local range of 1.1745 - 1.1775. You can go for a breakthrough if there is a margin for risks.

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Will the bulls and bears make peace?

The inability of gold bulls to cling to an important psychological level of $1,300 per ounce generates many opinions about the future prospects of the asset. "Bears" talk about the speculative nature of the XAU / USD rally, drawing attention to the fact that over the past five weeks, hedge funds and other investors have increased net longs on precious metals at the New York COMEX by a record 474 tons (about $ 19.3 billion ). Meanwhile, stocks of ETF for the same period decreased by 35 tons. Usually, both indicators go in one direction, confirming the strength of the trend.

ABN AMRO believes that in the near future, prices will begin to actively decline towards the lower limit range of $ 1200-1300 per ounce thanks to three drivers: first, strong macroeconomic statistics from the US that will support the dollar; second, the likelihood of an increase in the Federal Reserve rate for federal funds in 2017; and, finally, the dispersion of the risk of war between the States and North Korea.

BofA Merrill Lynch, in contrast, believes that gold will be able to rise to around $ 1,400 per ounce due to the following reasons: the inability of Donald Trump and his team to implement a package of economic reforms, growing risks of correction in US stock indices, and low interest rates on long-term US bonds. The correlation of the latter with precious metals inspires "bulls" in the XAU / USD pair for exploits.

Dynamics of the yield of US Treasury bonds and gold prices

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Source: Bloomberg.

BofA Merrill Lynch also points to the strengthening of the euro amid the recovery of the eurozone economy. This puts pressure on the USD index.

Thus, the arguments of the opponents are clear. The further dynamics of XAU / USD will depend on which scenario of events will come to fruition. Hedge funds, which have increased their net longs in precious metals to their highest levels since October, believe in its bullish prospects while investors in ETF prefer a cautious approach.

In my opinion, a deep correction in the S&P 500 looks unlikely. The world economy, according to forecasts of Bloomberg experts, will accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4% in 2017. This will allow companies to generate profits not only from a weak dollar, but also from a strong domestic and external demand. Moreover, central banks are not going to deprive the market of cheap liquidity. The ECB, for sure, will extend the quantitative easing program in 2018, the Bank of Japan will continue to buy up assets, and the Fed will reduce the balance extremely slowly.

Geopolitics, as a rule, is not a long-lasting factor, unless, of course, the case ends in military actions. Few believe in the technical default of the United States and it's time for the presidential team to notice at least some success in implementing election promises. All this pushes the idea that the potential of the XAU / USD rally looks limited.

Technically, the drop in quotes below the support level of $ 1,280 per ounce will allow the market to talk about the implementation of the subsidiary and mother model, "Three Movements". Their combination is a serious argument in favor of correction towards the current uptrend.

Gold, daily chart

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