GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 2, 2014

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Overview:


On July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending below the depicted downtrend line.


Two bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 corresponding to the downtrend line.


The price level of 1.6140 constituted a prominent weekly support to meet the pair. Bullish rejection was witnessed in the previous visit. This led to bullish weekly closure ( above the weekly support level around 1.6250 ).


Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as expected in previous articles.


This price zone corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted channels as well as Fibonacci level of the recent bearish impulse between 1.7180 and 1.6060.


The GBP/USD pair remains targeting at 1.6050 ( the recent weekly low ) as long as the market is trading below 1.6240 on a daily basis.


Trading recommendations:


Based on the previous data, the market offered a valid SELL opportunity around 1.6460 during last week's consolidations.


This short position remains valid as long as the bears keep defending price zone of 1.6250-1.6320 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous broken bottom ). Hence, Stop Loss should be located slightly above these price zone. This secures some of the profits.


Bearish targets are located around 1.6160 ( already reached ) and 1.6080 to come next.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 2, 2014

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Several congestion zones were established around the price levels of 1.3800, 1.3580 and 1.3335 before further bearish decline could take place.


The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2570 took place shortly after achieving the projection targets of the recent flag pattern.


Careful monitoring price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.


The pair looks oversold and trading beyond the lower limit of the channel. Earlier today, some bullish recovery was witnessed towards 1.2670 ( backside of the breached channel ).


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The current short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2870 (the recent consolidation zone).


The bearish slide below 1.2820 invalidated the possibility of a short-term bullish reversal.


Careful watching of price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.


Recommendation :


A conservative trader should wait for daily closure again inside the channel to look for long positions.


In case the bulls initiate a corrective movement around the lower limit of the channel being breached today, the first target levels to be visited should be located around 1.2870 and 1.2940 where the upper limit of the channel and significant Fibonacci level are located.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 2, 2014

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I mentioned the bearish shooting star daily candlestick that occurred previously around 61.8% Fibonacci level.


Such significant bearish pressure offered SELL positions at retesting that took place few days later.


Price level of 1.6140 is a key-level on the daily and weekly chart. Hence, we prefer to exit most of the sell positions taken around 1.6400 (61.8% Fibonacci level).


Also note the bullish rejection initiated when market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060.


For conservative traders, Long positions are favorable after such a long bearish movement and at such low prices.


Price levels around 1.6060 up to 1.6100 would probably offer a valid BUY entry. Just signs of bullish pressure is needed to confirm counter-trend position.


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4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.


The recent bullish leg which extended between 1.6060 ( the lower limit of the channel ) and price levels around 1.6400 looks strong compared to the recent bearish swings ( no obvious bearish trend structure and a weekly bearish gap (about 150 pips) enabled bears to test 1.6058 ).


High probability of reversal exists around 1.6100.


The bearish rejection off price levels around 1.6450 should be considered as well.


Recommendations :


We can BUY the pair around 1.6100 with our SL placed below 1.6050 with potential targets around 1.6300 and 1.6400.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 02, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has corrected itself into 137.00 levels as seen here, 100 pips lower than what was anticipated. Please note that the pair is bouncing off fibonacci 0.786 support level of the rally between 135.80 and 141.30 at present. Immediate support is at 135.80, followed by 134.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 139.00/20, followed by 141.00/30 and higher respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions now (137.30/40), risk remains below 135.80. As depicted here, a bullish reversal now could take prices higher up to 143.00 and 145.00 in the coming weeks.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now, stop at 135.80, target 143.00.


Good luck!




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Gold analysis for October 02, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (1,223.00) and tested the level of 1,210.22. If the price breaks the level of 1,206.00 in a high volume and healthy price action, we may see potential testing the level of 1,194.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). According to the daily chart, we can observe very weak demand, which is a sign that buying still looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,219.23


R2: 1,222.77


R3: 1,228.50


Support levels


S1: 1,207.77


S2: 1,204.23


S3: 1,198.50


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since we got strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% in the background


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Technical analysis of Silver for October 02, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver prints fresh lows at $16.86 on Friday last before pulling back into the $17.40/45 levels. As seen here, the metal is clearly trading in the sell zone of both lines of resistance. Furthermore please note that Silver is bouncing again at the short term resistance line, indicating lower levels possibly towards $16.00. Also note that prices have bounced back from a past support turned resistance zone at $17.40/50. Immediate resistance is at $17.80, followed by $18.60/90 and higher while support is seen at $16.00 and lower respectively. It is recommended to remain flat and look to buy lower on a bullish reversal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 2, 2014

General overview for 02/10/2014 10:40 CET

The corrective wave c purple is developing as expected. However, the target level has been broken and the market went a little lower to the 78%Fibo at the level of 136.96. Throughout the whole corrective structure traders can see a three almost equal length measurements in triple three corrective cycle labeled as WXYXXZ of the whole wave B. A rebound is expected here and further impulsive wave progression upward is anticipated. A failure to make this kind of wave progression will shift our focus on the level of 136.68 (88.8%Fibo) and then on invalidation line at the level of 135.81. Support/Resistance:

135.81 - Bullish Count Invalidation Level

136.68 - 88%Fibo

136.96 - 78%Fibo

137.12 - WS2

137.30 - Intraday Resistance

137.73 - WS1

137.94 - Intraday Resistance

138.96 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy positions from current price levels, with SL below the level of 136.95 and TP level open for now. It might very good level to enter swing buy orders as well.


eurjpy_h1.jpg The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 2, 2014

General overview for 02/10/2014 10:10 CET

After unexpected fifth wave failure, the market sharply reversed down breaking the important level of 1.1097 for impulsive wave progression. This means the green impulsive count is now invalidated due to wave (iv) and wave (i) overlaps, and new count, even more bullish is on the chart now. This labeling indicates a third black cycle labeled as wave (1) and wave (2) so far with invalidation line at the level of 1.0885. Currently the market is in corrective cycle wave (2) and it looks like the zig-zag pattern in the making. The projected target for this cycle is at the level of 1.0987 and sharp rebound is being expected from there.


Support/Resistance:

1.0987 - 1.0975 - Wave (2) target Zone

1.1033 - WS1

1.1070 - Intraday Support

1.1098 - Weekly Pivot

1.1129 - Intraday Resistance

1.1222 - Swing High


Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening sell positions form current price levels, with SL above the level of 1.1130 and TP at the level of 1.0987.


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 2, 2014

The Dollar index made a pull back yesterday towards our support of 85.50 but support was held. Now trading near 85.80 I believe traders should be very cautious as the ECB is holding the meeting today and everyone is waiting for Mario Draghi's speech. This speech is expected to bring some volatility in the FX markets.


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In the daily chart as shown above, the trend remains bullish. Price remains inside the upward sloping channel and is fully bullish according to the Ichimoku cloud indicators. Critical daily support is found at 85. Breaking below it will push the index out of the upward sloping channel. This could be the reversal signal many have been waiting. If a correction starts, we could see the index fall towards 84 or even 83.


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As the weekly chart points out, long-term trend remains fully bullish and is very strong. Betting against this trend is not advised. The best strategy is to raise stops for long positions in order to protect profits. Betting against this trend is not advised. Next upside targets are 87-89.


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Gold Technical analysis for October 2, 2014

Gold price has pushed upwards yesterday towards the channel boundaries and got rejected. Gold price remains below the important resistance of $1,233 and it may have finished the sideways correction. I continue to expect Gold price to test the important support at $1,180 and finally break below it.


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Blue line = support


Green lines = price channel


Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the downward sloping channel. Gold price has reached the upper channel boundaries and got rejected. Gold price is now expected to move lower to test the lows at $1,204. We could see a minor new high but the chances for this are slim.


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In the 1 hour chart above, I show the sideways pattern Gold is following. The $1,225 is the maximum level I expect Gold price to rise. Important resistance is found above $1,225 and at $1,233. Breaking above that level will confirm short-term trend change to bullish. I believe that this sideways move will soon give us a break out. I favor the downward break towards $1,180. My longer-term view remains bearish. Confirmation will come once we break $1,180 with $1,000 as target.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 2 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6128


R2: 1.6088


R1: 1.6047


Current spot: 1.6032


S1: 1.6016


S2: 1.5978


S3: 1.5949


Technical summary:


The correction from 1.6446 is becoming extremely deep. We are currently back-testing the base-channel resistance-line, which is now acting as support. Ideally this support near 1.5978 will protect the downside for a break above 1.6082 and more importantly a break above 1.6243 to confirm the next rally higher to 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6836. Only a break below support at 1.5949, will change the current count, but only to an even more bullish long-term count.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.6100 was hit for a nice profit. We will re-buy EUR at 1.6000 or upon a break above 1.6088 with a stop at 1.5800.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for October 02, 2014

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Traders are waiting for today's ECB press conference. The main concern in front of the ECB is the deflation. If the ECB continues further stimulus the euro will weaken further. The pair has been falling for 3 months in a row. The pair made a low at 1.2581 in September, the low remains in this month. The pair is trading at 1.2671 in Asia's session. The pair has strong resistance at 1.2750 which is a multi-month low and 1.2760 200MEma. On the down side, it has support at 1.2571, below this at 1.25 as September 2012 low, 1.2432 the 80.0 fib level, and 1.2218 200MSma levels. The major support level existed at the 1.2218 level. Is a daily close is above 20Dsma 1.2830, the weekly trend turns to positive. Until then, sell on every up move.


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For an intraday view, the pair will face heavy volatility. The prices are closed above the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 35DEMA. The pair is currently trading at 1.2640, the speculator can buy with immediate targets at 1.2660, 1.2685, and 1.27 levels. The pair will face selling pressure again below 1.26 .


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Technical analysis of Gold for October 02, 2014

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The yellow metal held the support at $1,204 levels and is trading at $1,219 in Asia's session. The metal made a minor double bottom at $1,204 levels; we can round it to $1,200 levels. Today the metal opened on a strong note, made a high at $1,222. The metal has parallel resistance at $1,223-$1,224, above this, $1,228.80 and $1,230.90. In case of a daily close above $1,228.80-$1,229, the weekly trend turns positive. The weekly resistance is at $1,241.60 levels.


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For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading above hourly key moving averages. The prices are consolidating in a descending rectangle, making lower lows and lower highs, representing further bearish thoughts. The metal has initial resistance at $1,223 above this, $1,224, $1,230.90, $1,234.50, and $1,241.60 levels will act as hurdles. On the down side, the metal has supports at $1,207.90, $1,206.50, and $1,204, below these, $1,200, $1,295, and $1,285-$1,280 on the chart.


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Intraday trading recommendations for EUR/JPY for October 02, 2014

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Ahead of the ECB press conference, the cross gives some strong gain in the Asian session. If the ECB continues further stimulus, the euro will weaken further. The deflation is the main concern for the ECB. The pair is facing strong resistance at 50Wsma, it is unable to breach it. In yesterday's sell off the pair hit the 61.8 fib level. The nearest support zone is between 137.35-136.90. In yesterday's session the pair made a low at 137.39 and successfully pushed the cross towards the 50Dsma in Asia's session. The pair will get some strength above 137.72, above this, it can fly up to 137.95 and 139.18 levels. Below 136.90, the pair will face selling pressure up to 136 and 135.80 levels. Safe traders can buy only above 137.72.


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For an intraday view, the prices closed and are trading below the hourly moving averages at 35DEMA and 34hrsma levels. In yesterday's session the pair faced a strong resistance level at the broken support trend line, support became the resistance bearish formula. We can see strong and safe up move only above 139.20 levels for an intraday basis and above 137.72 it will act as safe buy for an hourly basis for an hourly target at 138.15, above this, 138.26, 138.40, and 138.60 levels. Safe selling will be triggered only below 136.90.


NUTSHELL - ECB further stimulus, EURO further slide.


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Intraday trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 02, 2014

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The UK manufacturing PMI came in at a 17-month low of 51.6, down from 52.2 in August. The cable made a broader top between 1.64 and 1.6410 and was rejected a couple of times at 20Dsma. In yesterday's session the pair took the support at the 80.0 fib level and parallel support at 1.6162, a low made on September 16th in the daily chart. In case of a break below this, it will find support at previous support at 1.6052 and crucial support, at 1.60 (50Msma), the 50.0 fib level from 1.4813 to 1.7192. The short-term trend will turn a complete bearish movement. Once the pair closes below 1.60, it can fall 150-300 pips easily.


Support: 1.6162, 1.6050, 1.60.


Resistance: 1.6260, 1.64-1.6410, 1.6530.


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For an intraday view, the pair has been facing strong resistance at the 10-day descending trend line and the 2 months (2-month) descending trend line. The prices are closed below 12ema and 34hrsma. It represents the bearish signs for an hourly and intraday basis. The prices took support at 1.6162 and are looking to bounce back to the resistance levels around 12ema. The sellers will gain only below 1.6162 and bulls get a chance to mint money only above 1.6220 levels. The pair can fly above 1.62 towards 1.6220, 1.6250-1.6260 levels. Sellers can mint money to sell (selling) below 1.6160 towards 1.6120, 1.61 and 1.6050.


Buy above 1.6220 for targets at 1.6250-1.6260 and 1.6285.


Sell below 1.6160 target (for targets at) 1.6120, 1.61, and 1.6050.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 02, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Unemployment Change, PPI m/m, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, French 10-y Bond Auction, Minimum Bid Rate. The US will release economic data too such as the Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, Natural Gas Storage, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2684.

Strong Resistance:1.2676.

Original Resistance: 1.2664.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2652.

Target Inner Area: 1.2622.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2592.

Original Support: 1.2580.

Strong Support: 1.2588.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2560.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official analyst of InstaForex Group


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 02, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Base y/y, 10-y Bond Auction and the US will release some economic data such as Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders m/m, Natural Gas Storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to mediumvolatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.64.

Resistance. 2: 109.33.

Resistance. 1: 109.12.

Support. 1: 108.85.

Support. 2: 108.64.

Support. 3: 108.42.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official analyst of InstaForex Group


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for October 02, 2014

The USDX continues forming a bullish pattern above the trend line at the level of 85.60, so the USDX still has enough bullish strength to continue advance in the medium term. Furthermore, the USDX found strong support on the trend line, so that this instrument is attempting to consolidate above the level of 86.50 . However, USDX could make a pullback at current levels and fall to the support level of 85.06.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 86.20 – 87.35


Daily chart's support levels: 85.18 – 84.29


The USDX continues to find obstacles in the mild resistance of 86.17 at the H1 chart. Now, the USDX is trying to fall back to the support level of 85.73. However, although the USDX remains bullish due to the current position of the moving average of 200 in this chart. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, so we recommend caution when placing buy orders at current levels.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.95 – 86.17


H1 chart's support levels: 85.73 – 85.49


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.95 take profit is at 86.17, and stop loss is at 85.73.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 02, 2014

At the H4 chart, GBP/USD has formed a fractal at the resistance level of 1.6247, which has made this pair consolidate its bearish trend and it is likely that the GBP/USD will continue weakening in the coming hours, even if the support level of 1.6140 is quite strong. Recall that the GBP/USD found strong resistance at the 200-day moving average a few days ago, so this new bearish momentum could continue for a few more weeks in this pair. However, there is some indecision in the current trend, which is reflected in the MACD indicator.


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H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.6247 - 1.6435


H4 chart's support levels: 1.6051 - 1.6004


We can see that the GBP/USD intends to extend the bearish trend in the H1 chart, because this pair performed a strong pullback at the level of 1.6250 so again, the GBP/USD is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6170 to fall to the next target level of 1.6117 in the bearish road. The GBP/USD has been following a bearish trend line for several days, below the 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is moving into negative territory which could favor the progression bearish force.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6252 – 1.6216


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6170 – 1.6117


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6170, take profit is at 1.6117, and stop loss is at 1.6223.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 2, 2014

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Overview :



  • The USD/CAD pair is calling for the bullish market from the level of 1.1135 this week. The level of 1.1135 is representing support 1 and the second support is set at the level of 1.1092. As it is know, history will probably repeat itself at this level. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above supports (1.1135 or 1.1092) with the first target of 1.1220 (the peak in H4 chart). If the pair is able to break this top, then it will call for uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 1.1260. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at the price of 1.1053. .


Notes :



  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

  • We expect a new range about 55 -70 pips today.

  • The key level will set at the level of 1.1135.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 2, 2014

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Forecast in the long term :



  • According to previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been trapped between the levels 0.7805 and 0.7714.

  • Strong resistance will be formed at the level of 0.7805 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at 0.7750 nad 0.77.

  • Stop-loss is to be placed above 0.7853.

  • In the short term, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.7666 providing a clear signal for buy deals with a small target seen at the 0.7730 level in order to retest support.


Notes :



  • We expect a range about 60 pips today.

  • The risk of 40 pips must make a profit of 60 pips.

  • The level of 0.7800 will confirm the bearish market.

  • Volatility is 122.81. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the prior day had a huge volatility.


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