Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 08, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5059 in a high volume. According to the H4 time frame, we can can observe supply in a volume above the average, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD still looks risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5400 got broken so we may see a potential testing of the level of 1.4950 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. We can also observe weak reaction from buyers, which is a sign that they are not ready for stronger bullish correctiion.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5305


R2: 1.5338


R3: 1.5391


Support levels:


S1: 1.5200


S2: 1.5167


S3: 1.5115


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair at this stage, since we can observe strong supply in the background.








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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 8, 2015

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Overview :



  • The USD/CHF pair is going to set strong supports at the levels of 1.0136 and 1.0077; on the other hand the resistance levels will set at the 1.0250 and 1.0295 levels. Thus, the price is going to move between 1.0136 and 1.0250 in coming hours. As a result, the price has already formed the strong support at the level of 1.0136 and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will get a rather convincing upside momentum and the structure of the increment does not look corrective, indicating a bullish opportunity above the 1.0136 level so it will be a good sign to buy above 1.0136 with the first target of 1.0210 (this level is coinciding with the daily pivot point today). It will also call for an uptrend in order to continue bearish move towards 1.0250. The price is at 1.0294 to form a new double top. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the price of 1.0042.


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Analysis of gold for January 08, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1,204.57 in a volume below the average According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak supply in a volume below the average, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,201.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,189.00. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows. According to the daily time frame, we can observe high churn volume (high volume supply and weak price action).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,217.00


R2: 1,219.44


R3: 1,223.37


Support levels:


S1: 1,209.14


S2: 1,206.70


S3: 1,202.77


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).






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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 8, 2015

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Overview :



  • The market is going to continue to show signs of strength at the level of 1.1755 which represents the rate of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Therefore, the resistance of the USD/CAD pair has broken and it turned to support for five months (January 8, 2014), so the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.1755 and the second support will be found around the area of 1.1718. Additionally, according to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair has still been trapped between 1.1760 and 1.1834. Hence, the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.1755 with the first target of 1.1807 and continues towards 1.1836. But it should noted that the strong resistance will set at the level of 1.1873 (the double top in H1 chart). On the contrary, the stop loss is to be placed below the level of 1.1718. This level is representing a new double bottom in the H1 chart. However, If the trend cannot break and close above the level of 1.1873, then it will be a rather convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall will not be corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.1873. Consequently, strong resistance will be formed at the level of 1.1873 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at 1.1795 and 1.1755 in order to test the first support.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 8, 2015

General overview for 08/01/2015 10:30 CET


The market is trying to resume the uptrend but has been of no avail so far. The first intraday resistance at the level of 141.68 still puts a cap on any meaningful rebound and this level is the key level to succeed in an impulsive wave development. The price stays inside of the intraday trading range between the levels of 140.54 - 141.68 and only a breakout above/below any of the levels will give more clues about the further market movement. Please note that the bias is still bullish and the bullish divergence on momentum oscillator supports this view.


Support/Resistance:


140.54 - WS2


141.65 - Intraday Resistance


141.95 - WS1


143.18 - Intraday Resistance


144.10 - 144.42 - Gap Zone


144.58 - Weekly Pivot


145.57 - Technical Resistance


146.22 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


We still keep buy orders opened from a couple of days ago, with SL below the level of 140.54 and TP at the level of 144.42. The next good level to add to existing positions is at the level of 143.17.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 8, 2015

General overview for 08/01/2015 10:20 CET


The internal corrective cycle in the last impulsive wave to the upside is in progress and the suggested corrective pattern is a triangle. Still the projected orange zone is the valid target for wave 5 purple before any meaningful decline will happen. Please noteу that the market is still in the bullish zone and only a breakout below the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1752 would temporary change the intraday bullish outlook.


Support/Resistance:


1.1935 - WR1


1.1897 - 1.1912 - Projected Target Zone for Wave 5 Purple


1.1872 - Intraday Resistance


1.1806 - Intraday Support


1.1753 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Yesterday's buy orders has been stopped out for a small loose but overall bias is still bullish as there is one more wave to complete the wave development. Target is still the orange rectangle zone between the levels of 1.1897 - 1.1912.


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Technical analysis of #USDX for January 8, 2015

The Dollar index remains in a strong up trend and has reached the short-term bullish flag target of 92.20-92.30. I believe we should expect a short-term pull back today 91.50 or 91.20. This does not mean that I expect a bigger reversal but only a short-term pull back before continuing higher.


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Blue line = support


In the 4 hour chart above we see the Dollar index that remains in a strong up trend. Short-term support is at 91.84. If broken we should expect a move lower towards 91.50 or even 91.20. The blue trendline provides support and I do not expect price to break below it at this stage.


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The weekly chart remains fully bullish and despite the pull back I expect, I do not see this chart showing any signs of reversal. Important weekly support is at 90 and if broken the next support is at 86.60. Fully bullish in Ichimoku terms and with potential to continue higher as long as it trades above 90.


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Technical analysis of gold for January 8, 2015

Gold may be forming a bullish flag with a possible target of $1,270. The short-term trend is sideways while gold trades between $1,220 and $1,200. The medium-term trend is neutral as gold price is forming a big sideways triangle. The long-term trend remains bearish.


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Blue line = flag pole


Red lines = flag


In the 15 minute chart, we see the bullish flag being formed. A break out above $1,220 will confirm the flag break out with possible target equal to the flag pole. For the time being prices are trending sideways to lower within the red channel.


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In the 4 hour chart above we observe the triangle pattern that is being formed. Strong resistance by this pattern is at $1,230. Even if price breaks above $1,220 it will need to break above $1,230-40 in order to confirm the bullish flag and the target of $1,270. Support is found by the Ichimoku cloud at $1,195. I prefer to stay neutral.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 08, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a buoyant tone. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.57% to 19.31; S&P 500 closed up 1.16% at 2,025.9 overnight) as data showing the eurozone fell into deflation for the first time in more than five years bolstered expectations for the European Central Bank to engage in full-blown quantitative easing as early as Jan. 22, while balanced minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting suggest the U.S. central bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates before the middle of this year. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers, the Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 92.265 Wednesday, last at 92.02 versus 91.73 early Wednesday) on narrower-than-expected U.S. November trade deficit of $39 billion (versus forecast $42 billion), while ADP report showing 241,000 increase in U.S. December private sector jobs--although below forecast +250,000--bolstered hopes that Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data would be robust. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. two-year Treasury yields (last at 0.613% versus 0.633% late Tuesday) after release of FOMC minutes.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and slow stochastic indicators are in bearish mode, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.5. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 118. The pivot point stands at 119.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.3.


Resistance levels:

120.3

120.65

121



Support levels:

118.65

118.05

117.75


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 08, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting four-year high 1.0176 on Wednesday.It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment; contagion from the weak euro on the Swiss franc and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0225 and the second target at 1.0255. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0090. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 1.0030. The pivot point is at 1.0125.


Resistance levels:

1.0225

1.0255

1.0275


Support levels:

1.0090

1.0030

0.9985


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 08, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the firmer dairy prices, kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion, kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastic indicators are in bullish mode but five and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7820 and the second target at 0.7850. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 0.7720. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 0.7680. The pivot point is at 0.7755.


Resistance levels:

0.7820

0.7850

0.7875



Support levels:


0.7720

0.7680

0.7650


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 8, 2015

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Technical summary:


The decline have been even strong than we expected. This strong decline has forced us to evaluate the previous count and the new short-term count shows that blue wave iii is close to a bottom at 1.5153 form where we should expect a correction towards 1.5341 and maybe even slightly higher towards 1.5450 before blue wave v lower towards 1.5079 to end blue wave v and red wave iii. Once red wave iii is in place, we should be looking for flat correction in red wave iv. As red wave ii was strong correction that took back most of red wave i, the alternation principle tells to look for a shallow and flat red wave iv.


Trading recommendation:


We will book our profit from 1.5620 here at 1.5183 for a nice profit. We will then look for a new EUR selling opportunity near 1.5450.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 8 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The minor correction from 140.56 is likely to end near 142.00 for the final decline towards the ideal target at 140.12, where the entire correction from 149.78 is expected to terminate. Once the low is in place, a new impulsive rally higher is expected to move above the 149.78 high. In the short term, only an unexpected rally above 142.97 will be the first strong indication that a bottom is already is in place.


Trading recommendation:


We will buy EUR at 140.25 with a stop at 139.60.


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 08, 2015

The USDX continues to find solid support in the bullish trendline near the 91.95 level and now this instrument could rise to the resistance level of 92.62, which would be the next target on the upside road. On the other hand, if the USDX does a breakout at the support level of 91.62, it is expected to fall to the level of 91.17. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


H4 chart's resistance levels: 92.62 / 93.45


H4chart's support levels: 91.62 / 91.17


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On the H1 chart, the USDX is attempting a breakout at the 92.08 level, because during yesterday's session, the USDX made a false breakout in that area. The current price action is indicating that this instrument will still have strength to continue extending the bullish trend. However, we should trade with caution anyway.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 92.08 / 92.51


H1 chart's support levels: 91.66 / 91.24


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 92.08, take profit is at 92.51, and stop loss is at 91.66.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 08, 2015

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is forming a lower low pattern below the resistance level of 1.5148, but it is noteworthy that this pair has formed a fractal near the support level of 1.5017, which would be an indication of GBP/USD conducting a bullish retracement above the resistance level of 1.5148 in the coming hours.


H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.5148 / 1.5341


H4chart's support levels: 1.5017 / 1.4900


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During the yesterday's session, GBP/USD made a successful breakout at the level of 1.5110. So far, the pair is preparing to try to form a bearish pattern to consolidate below the support level of 1.5074 and fall to the level of 1.5018. However, GBP/USD could form a double bottom pattern in that support level. So we should be cautious.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5110 / 1.5146


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5074 / 1.5018


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5074, take profit is at 1.5018, and stop loss is at 1.5131.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 08, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is poised to turn around from current levels around 141.50/60, and resume rally towards potential highs in the days to come. Please note that the pair has produced an engulfing bullish reversal signal around the fibonacci 50% support levels, just shy of 140.00 region. It is recommended to hold long positions taken yesterday. Risk remains at 139.50 for now. Immediate support is seen at 140.00, followed by 137.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at 145.00, followed by 147.00, 148.00 and higher respectively. Bulls should remain in control as long as prices stay above 140.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 139.50, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 08, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair seems to be poised to resume rally from here on (1.5320), after having bounced off the level of 1.5250 yesterday. The pair has been receiving support at the 1.5200/50 levels earlier. A push through 1.5400 would confirm that a bottom is in place at 1.5250 levels. It is recommended to remain long and also to look to add further if prices manage to reach 1.5200. Risk remains at 1.5150 for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.5200 levels, followed by 1.5100, 1.5000 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5400, followed by 1.5520 respectively. Bulls could be looking to push it higher towards 1.5620 levels now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 1.5140, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 08, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, PPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and German Factory Orders m/m .The US will also unveil its Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Challenger Job Cuts y/y, and Consumer Credit m/m data. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium volatility during this day.


Today's technical levels:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1895.


Strong Resistance:1.1888.


Original Resistance: 1.1877.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1866.


Target Inner Area: 1.1838.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1810.


Original Support: 1.1799.


Strong Support: 1.1788.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1781.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 08, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic reports but the US will unveil its Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Challenger Job Cuts y/y, and Consumer Credit m/m data. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


Today's technical levels:


Resistance. 3: 120.27.


Resistance. 2: 120.04.


Resistance. 1: 119.80.


Support. 1: 119.51.


Support. 2: 119.27.


Support. 3: 119.04.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of silver for January 08, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver might be looking to dip toward $16.00 and $15.80/80 levels again before rallying further up. It is therefore recommended to book profits on long positions taken earlier and wait for lower levels to enter long again. Immediate support is seen at $16.00 levels, followed by $15.90, $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. Please note that the structure might still unfold as an inverted head and shoulder reversal, with $15.50 being carved out as the right shoulder. Bulls should remain in control till prices stay above $15.50 levels at least. $15.90 is seen as next support for now.


Trading recommendations:


Book profits on long positions taken earlier and remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of gold for January 08, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold seems to be preparing to correct deeper into $1,200.00 and subsequently $1,185.00 levels for now. It is therefore recommended to book partial or full profits on long positions taken earlier and wait for correction to finish before entering again. Immediate support is seen at $1,200.00 followed by $1,189.00, $1,170.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,238.00/40, $1,250.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are poised to remain in control as long as prices stay above $1,170.00 levels, but a break below the trend line would delay matters further.


Trading recommendations:


Book profits on long positions taken earlier, remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 8, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair touched the resistance line at 1.1850 and closed below it. It is now going towards the support line at 1.1800, which is the next target for today. The aforementioned resistance line (including the one at 1.1900) should defend the bears against any bullish attacks on the way.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF was able to reach the resistance level at 1.0150, currently battering it. The resistance level would be breached to the upside, as the price goes towards another resistance level at 1.0200. In addition, strong fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the markets.


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GBP/USD: This is a bear market which has dropped by roughly 230 pips this week. The price is now below the distribution territory at 1.5100, going towards the accumulation territory at 1.5050. The probability of further downward movement is supported by the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.


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USD/JPY: Handling this currency trading instrument now requires a different tack. The outlook is bearish, but the bulls are still flexing their muscles. A break above the supply level at 120.00 would signal the return of the buying pressure; while a break below the demand level at 118.00 would mean the strengthening of the selling pressure.


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EUR/JPY: This is strong bear market. The price is below the EMA 11, which in turn is below the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Though the price is currently consolidating, the southward journey could resume.


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