Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of August 17

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the price is in the correction zone. The level of 1.1455 is the key support for the downward cycle from August 8. For the GBP / USD pair, we expect the continuation of the movement downward. We are wait after passing the price of the noise range of 1.2684 - 1.2655. For the USD / CHF pair, the subsequent goals for the top were determined from the upward structure on August 14. For the USD / JPY pair, the upward trend is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 110.91 - 111.10. For the EUR / JPY pair, the price forms a local downward structure from August 14. The development of this level is expected after the breakdown of 124.82. For the GBP / JPY pair, the price also forms a local structure for the bottom of August 14. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 139.86.

Forecast for August 17:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the of EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1539, 1.1455, 1.1399, 1.1365, 1.1282, 1.1245, 1.1172, 1.1133 and 1.1043. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle from August 8. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1282 - 1.1245. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement towards the level of 1.1172. In the area of 1.1172 - 1.1133 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.1043, the movement toward which we expect after the breakdown of 1.1131.

Consolidated traffic is possible in the area of 1.1365 - 1.1399. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1455. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead an upward movement. In this case, the target is 1.1539.

The main trend is a local downward structure from August 8, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1401 Take profit: 1.1452

Buy 1.1457 Take profit: 1.1537

Sell: 1.1244 Take profit: 1.1174

Sell: 1.1132 Take profit: 1.1045

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.2907, 1.2825, 1.2763, 1.2727, 1.2684, 1.2655, 1.2601 and 1.2561. Here, we continue to follow the local downward cycle from August 7. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing the price of the noise range 1.2684 - 1.2655. In this case, the target is 1.2601. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2561, after which we expect consolidation in the area of 1.2601 - 1.2561.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2727-1.2763. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2825. This level is the key support for the bottom. Passing by the price will lead to form the initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 1.2907 .

The main trend is the local downward structure of August 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2727 Take profit: 1.2760

Buy: 1.2765 Take profit: 1.2822

Sell: 1.2655 Take profit: 1.2604

Sell: 1.2658 Take profit: 1.2562

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For the USD / CHF, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.0043, 1.0012, 1.0001, 0.9985, 0.9962, 0.9949, 0.9932 and 0.9900. Here, we clarified the subsequent goals from the upward structure on August 14. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9985. In this case, the target is 1.0001. In the area of 1.0001 - 1.0012 is the consolidation of the price. Break of the level 1.0012 will allow us to count on the movement towards the potential target of 1.0043, from this level we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9962 - 0.9949. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9932. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the upward structure of August 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9985 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy: 1.0014 Take profit: 1.0040

Sell: 0.9960 Take profit: 0.9952

Sell: 0.9946 Take profit: 0.9934

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For the USD / JPY, the key levels on a scale are: 112.41, 112.23, 111.73, 111.49, 111.10, 110.91, 110.43, 110.11 and 109.76. Here, we consider the upward structure of August 13 as medium-term initial conditions, the development of which is expected after passing the price of the noise range 110.91 - 111.10. In this case, the first target is 111.49. In the area of 111.49 - 111.73 short-term upward movement, as well as is the consolidation of the price. The level 111.75 break should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement towards the potential target of 112.41, upon reaching this level we expect consolidation in the area of 112.23 - 112.41.

Level 110.43 is the key support for the upward structure of August 13. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the first target is 110.11. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 109.76.

The main trend: medium-term upward structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.11 Take profit: 111.47

Buy: 111.52 Take profit: 111.70

Sell: 110.41 Take profit: 110.13

Sell: 110.08 Take profit: 109.78

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3270, 1.3220, 1.3181, 1.3124, 1.3095, 1.3077 and 1.3047. Here, the price forms a local structure for the development of the upward movement of August 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3181. In this case, the target is 1.3220. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3270, the movement towards which we expect after the breakdown of 1.3222.

The correction is expected after the breakdown of 1.3124, the target is 1.3095, the range 1.3095 - 1.3077 is the key support for the top. Passing by the price will lead a downward tendency. In this case, the target is 1.3047.

The main trend is the formation of a local upward structure of August 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3181 Take profit: 1.3220

Buy: 1.3222 Take profit: 1.3268

Sell: 1.3122 Take profit: 1.3097

Sell: 1.3075 Take profit: 1.3049

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7373, 0.7305, 0.7260, 0.7173, 0.7132, 0.7080, 0.7046 and 0.6978. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of August 9. Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7173 - 0.7132. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.7080. In the area of 0.7080 - 0.7046 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.6978, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 0.7260 - 0.7305. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7373. This level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7261 Take profit: 0.7303

Buy: 0.7306 Take profit: 0.7370

Sell: 0.7173 Take profit: 0.7134

Sell: 0.7130 Take profit: 0.7082

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For the of EUR / JPY, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 128.04, 127.02, 126.28, 125.72, 124.82, 124.12, 123.33 and 122.77. Here, the price forms a local structure for the bottom of August 14. The continuation of the movement downwards is expected after the breakdown of 124.82. In this case, the target is 124.12. Near this level the is the consolidation of the price. The level 124.10 break must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 122.77, upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, and also a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 126.28 - 127.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 128.04.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of August 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.30 Take profit: 127.00

Buy: 127.05 Take profit: 128.00

Sell: 124.80 Take profit: 124.20

Sell: 124.10 Take profit: 123.35

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 142.35, 141.49, 140.90, 139.86, 139.17, 138.26 and 137.68. Here, the price forms a local downward structure from August 14. Short-term downtrend is possible in the area of 139.86 - 139.17. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 138.26, the potential value for the bottom is the level of 137.68. Near which we expect consolidation, and also a rollback upward.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 140.90 - 141.49. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of an upward structure. Here, the target is 142.35. The potential value for the top is the level of 143.33, to which we expect the initial conditions to be formalized.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of August 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.95 Take profit: 141.40

Buy: 141.55 Take profit: 142.35

Sell: 139.80 Take profit: 139.20

Sell: 139.15 Take profit: 138.30

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Bitcoin analysis for August 17, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time frame, I found that price did fake breakout of the yesterday's high at the level of $6,440, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a weekly pivot at $6,641 and a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $6,200.

Support/Resistance

$6,520 – Intraday resistance

$6,380– Intraday support

$6,200 – Objective target

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Analysis of Gold for August 17, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,176.15. According to the M15 time – frame, I found that Gold is in a consolidation phase and a potential rising wedge is in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The price also broke the monthly S2 support in the background, which is another sign of the downward pressure. My advice is to watch for a otential breakout of the support trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,171.85 and at the price of $1,161.80.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,183.57

R2: $1,193.45

R3: $1,205.37

Support levels:

S1: $1,161.75

S2: $1,149.85

S3: $1,139.95

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for August 17, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1419. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a false breakout of the yesterday's high at the price of 1.1408, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the level of 1.1400 (round number) to be a critical resistance at this stage. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1350, 1.1337, and 1.1300.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1410

R2: 1.1445

R3: 1.1483

Support levels:

S1: 1.1337

S2: 1.1299

S3: 1.1264

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 17, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

As anticipated, bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300.

For further bearish decline to occur, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish breakdown below 1.1375. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

Hence, the EUR/USD short-term outlook remains bearish towards the mentioned levels unless bullish breakout above 1.1420 is achieved. This would pause the ongoing bearish momentum allowing bullish pullback to take place.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 17, 2018

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Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This indicates a possible bullish pullback.

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback towards 0.6700-0.6720 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6770.

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The markets fell into prostration again

Activity in the foreign exchange market has fallen markedly on the wave of the uncertainty factor, which is still going on, which is still being produced by the US in the struggle for world dominance in both political and economic spheres.

Investors are in the state of incomprehension, what should they do with the background of the Turkish debt crisis, the trade war between the US and China and other lesser trade wars, and then a new statement by US Treasury Secretary S. Mnuchin stating that Ankara should "quickly" let go of the American pastor. If this is not done, then he threatened with new sanctions. In general, what is happening now between the United States and a large number of countries in the world clearly states that America is extremely concerned about the possibility of losing political influence, which in the long run will cause and lose economic, which is, in fact, the basis of its well-being at present time.

But the desire to solve many contradictions and accumulated problems by force was the basis for the uncertainty factor and increased economic risks in the world. Watching this state of affairs, investors are slow to take any important actions in the markets. In fact, they took a wait-and-see attitude. This is why we are witnessing a prolonged period of consolidation in the US equity market, an increase in demand for defense assets and a strengthening of the US dollar. Of course, the dollar is still supported, and we expect an increase in interest rates by the repatriation of capital. However, its function as a protective asset is important in the face of threats to the world economy and the same uncertainty.

Given the current state of affairs, we believe that the dollar will be in demand, so it should be bought on local declines.

Today, the market will focus on the publication of data on consumer inflation in the eurozone and Canada. It is assumed that inflationary pressures in these countries will remain unchanged, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro and the Canadian dollar. But if the figures turn out to be higher or lower than the forecasts, we can expect either a local growth of the euro and the Canadian or a decline.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1365 and may try to partially recover towards 1.1430 if there are positive data on consumer inflation in the euro area. However, we still believe that the pair should be sold at an upside with probable local targets of 1.1365 and 1.1265 after overcoming the 1.1365 mark.

The USD/CAD pair is above the level of 1.3140. The pair may fall to 1.3100 on the wave of positive consumer inflation data in Canada after overcoming the level of 1.3140.

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Analysis of GBP / USD pair Divergences on August 17. Bullish divergence allows the pound to gain a little

H4

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The GBP/USD currency pair reversed in favor of the British currency as shown on the 4-hour chart. It started to grow in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% at 1.3047. Passing the last low divergence of the pair will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of a fall towards the Fibo level of 261.8% at 1.2638. The consolidation of the British pound major pair rate under the correction level of 261.8% will increase the probability of the decline to continue towards the correction level of 323.6% at 1.2230.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of March 1, 2018 and April 17, 2018.

H1

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On the hourly chart, the pair completed the fixation above the correction level of 200.0% at 1.2702, after the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator. Thus, the growth of quotations can be continued today in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% at 1.2800. Also, there is no visible divergence in any indicator this day. Fixation of the pair below the Fibo level of 200.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect a resumption of the decline in the direction of the correction level of 261.8% at 1.2545.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries from July 19, 2018 and July 26, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can now be considered with the target of 1.2800 and Stop Loss order under the correction level of 200.0%, as there was a close above the Fibo level 1.2702 (hourly chart) with the formation of a bullish divergence.

New sales of the GBP / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.2545 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 200.0% if there is a close under the Fibo level of 1.2702.

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Daily Forex Technical Analysis | 16th August 2018

Daily Forex Technical Analysis | 16th August 2018

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AUD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal!

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 80.79 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement x2, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 79.65 (100% Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 97% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 80.79. Stop loss 81.41. Take profit at 79.65.

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USD/CHF Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop!

USD/CHF reversed off its resistance at 0.9981 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 0.9942 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 98% where a corresponding drop is expected.

USD/CHF reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 0.9981. Stop loss at 1.0000. Take profit at 0.9942.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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BITCOIN Analysis for August 17, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite consistent with the bullish momentum after being rejected off the $6,000 area with a daily close. The price action is currently quite volatile which signals certain bullish pressure emerging in the market which might lead to certain bullish momentum, so the price could climb towards $8,000 resistance area in the near future. Meanwhile, the price is residing at the edge of $6,500 area. A daily close above $6,500 is expected to inject impulsive bullish pressure in the market with an objective of pushing higher towards $8,000 resistance area in the future. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for August 17, 2018

NZD/USD has been non-volatile with the recent bearish moves which led the price to reside below 0.6700 area with a daily close. USD has been outperforming in most of the major currency pairs where NZD is no different.

NZD has been struggling recently due to unchanged Official Cash Rate and dovish statements at RBNZ Press Conference. This week, NZD has been quite firm with the gains which created bullish momentum in the pair. Today, New Zealand PPI Input report was published with an increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to decrease to 0.2% and PPI Output also increased to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to decrease to 0.1%.

On the other side, recently US Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to decrease to 0.1% and Core Retail Sales also increased to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%. The positive readings did provide the needed boost for the currency, whereas NZD has been struggling to impress the market sentiment. Today, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 98.1 from the previous figure of 97.9 and CB Leading Index is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%.

Meanwhile, USD has been performing quite well in light of recent economic reports, whereas NZD is likely to make a counter move in the context of today's economic data. Though positive economic reports from New Zealand may lead to certain gains, it is expected to be quite short-lived.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bullish gains. The price is expected to retrace towards 0.6700-20 area where the dynamic level of 20 EMA also rests. If the price manages to push higher towards the area, because of bearish confluence the price is expected to follow the trend and push lower towards 0.6500 area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.68 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6500

RESISTANCE: 0.6700-20, 0.68

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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USD / CAD: Focus on Canadian inflation

The Canadian dollar at the end of the week fluttered, stopping in the middle of the 31st figure. Contradictory fundamental factors interrupted the northern movement of USD / CAD, although there are now more factors in favor of weakening the "loonie" than vice versa. There is one more reason for the waiting attitude of traders. Today, the key data on the growth of inflation in Canada will be published. This release can push the pair to one side.

In general, the fundamental background for the Canadian leaves much to be desired. The oil market again shows a decline, the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) remains uncertain, and Saudi Arabia has suspended all investments in Canada. This set of fundamental factors led to the growth of the pair USD / CAD from 1.2950 to the current 1.3150. However, yesterday, the northern impulse was stalled, mainly due to a slight weakening of the US dollar.

The US currency suspended its rally due to an unexpected "gap" in the US-China trade conflict. At the end in August, a delegation from China headed by the Deputy Minister of Commerce will arrive in Washington. The parties will sit at the negotiating table, and this dialogue, according to some experts, can end with the de-escalation of the trade war between the countries. At least, such hopes are placed by many market participants on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.

It is noteworthy that the initiators of the meeting were just the Americans, and not the Chinese, it is likely that Trump's recent statement that he is "ready to go for 500" (that is, to impose all Chinese imports with additional duties worth $ 500 billion) was not perceived enthusiasm in Washington. In any case, this attempt to establish a dialogue goes against the belligerent tweet of the US president to Beijing. Therefore, the market reaction did not wait, despite the fact that such negotiations have repeatedly ended in failure.

All this explains the slowdown in the growth of the pair USD / CAD. In addition, the market leaves no hope for further interest rate increase by the Bank of Canada. Under the conditions of the US-China trade war, in the midst of a serious economic crisis in Turkey, the Canadian regulator may become almost the only Central Bank among the world's leading countries, which will continue to tighten the terms of monetary policy (except, of course, the US Federal Reserve).

The last strong report on employment was unexpectedly strong, and this fact returned to the market rumors about the "hawkish" intentions of the Bank of Canada. First, in July, overall employment growth was the strongest this year (the number of jobs in Canada increased by 54 thousand last month after increasing by 31 thousand in the previous one); secondly, the rate of growth in employment in the service sector has even been able to update the historical maximum; thirdly, pleasantly surprised and the level of unemployment. This key indicator unexpectedly decreased to 5.8%.

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Given such strong data on the labor market, today's figures on the growth of inflation are extremely important. If Canadian inflation also surprises the market with a strong result, traders will be able to hope for another increase in the interest rate "in spite of everything," that is, despite all the negative factors of the fundamental background. Otherwise, the growth of the pair USD / CAD will continue, as the focus of the market will shift to external news drivers (the dynamics of quotations of "black gold", the prospect NAFTA, etc.).

The overall forecast for today's release is not impressive. In particular, the consumer price index should remain at high levels, but at the level of the previous period. The same can be said about the dynamics of core inflation (to which the Canadian regulator is mainly oriented). According to experts, it will remain at the same level, 1.3%. Given this forecast, even a minimal deviation from the declared figures will provoke strong volatility in the pair, especially if this deviation is in the positive direction.

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But the technical side of the Canadian, unfortunately, nothing good shines. The pair is in an upward trend: on the daily chart, the price is gradually matched to the resistance level and shows ambition to break through the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, thus gaining a foothold in the 32nd figure. All lines of the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo are under the price chart and show the strongest bullish signal - "Line Parade". Oscillators MACD and Stochastic also show an upward direction, being in the oversold area. Thus, the level of resistance is 1.3200, and the support level is 1.3075 (the middle line of the indicator Bollinger Bands on D1).

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To summarize, it is worth noting that the Canadian dollar shows remarkable resilience, despite the actual weakening. The decline in oil prices, the uncertainty over the NAFTA and the diplomatic scandal with Saudi Arabia. All these factors exerted (and exert) strong pressure on the Canadian, but its devaluation is limited. This suggests that the market still believes in further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, and today's inflation data may either strengthen the position of bears USD / CAD or finally weaken them.

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The dollar is not ready for correction yet

The news that China and the United States are planning to hold trade talks helped to ease tensions in financial markets and led to a correctional decline in the dollar, but the level of the Chinese delegation is clearly insufficient to resolve the accumulated issues.

The dollar index reached its peak in more than a year, as a number of factors contribute to its growth: the monetary policy of the Fed is washing it out of developing countries, and the threat of a large-scale trade war forces investors to look for safe assets, and the dollar, as the world's main currency, is on this list under the first number.

However, everything is not so rosy, if you look at the numbers. The US Treasury's report on cross-border financial flows shows that foreign capital does not at all seek in the US. For several months now, the gross sales volume of private and public counteragents has been growing faster than purchases, in June the balance for the first time since last year became negative, and even more indicative, a steady decline in foreign capital in the stock markets has been observed for 6 months already.

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What causes the US economy to grow at a rapid pace, and why the US stock indices look better than in other countries?

The answer is simple, a source of growth in good old buybacks, or a reverse buy-back of stocks. According to Goldman Sachs, US companies will send for a buyback of shares to a trillion dollars this year, the total amount of funds involved in the buyout will increase by 46% compared to 2017.

There is money for this process. The graph below shows the dynamics of corporate income before and after taxes, there is a sharp increase in the second indicator, this is a consequence of the tax reform, which eased the financial burden on companies, and it is this revenue growth that is the source of the confident behavior of the stock market. At the same time, we note that the gross income of companies before taxes has so far hardly reached the level of the third quarter of 2014, that is, the tax reform has not given any economic effect yet.

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The figures point to a rather entertaining process - easing the debt burden leads to the desire to expand buybacks, but not to the growth of the economy as a whole. Expansion of the same buybacks directly indicates that companies are under the most severe debt press, and therefore are forced to direct all available funds in order to prevent a decline in capitalization. Expansion and modernization of the economy, as Trump hoped, is still out of the question.

The US economy continues its growth solely at the expense of outstripping growth of debts at all levels, the margin of safety becomes no higher, but lower, as evidenced by the dynamics of cross-border capital flows. The toughening of the trade war with China is more than likely, since the positions of the parties are antagonistic and a compromise without serious concessions is impossible, and the growth of the dollar rate and the Fed rate increase will inevitably lead to a decrease in corporate profits. Together, these factors will put a lot of pressure on the US stock market, which can go into deep correction in the coming months.

Nevertheless, in the short term, the dollar will continue to be in demand, and its strengthening against major competitors is more than likely.

EUR / USD

Today Eurostat will publish data on consumer inflation for July, the expectations are neutral and, if they are in line with the forecasts, will not have a noticeable impact on the euro. The reasons for the political nature continue to adversely affect the euro, which remains under considerable pressure.

The most likely scenario for Friday is trading in the range of 1.1345 / 1410, towards the end of the day the decline to the lower end of the range and the attempt to go lower.

GBP / USD

Positive dynamics in the pound is not, after a short correction, a high probability of continuing the decline. Exceeding the forecasts for retail sales in July did not make any impression on the players, the pound for the resumption of growth requires a serious breakthrough in the negotiations on Brexit and steady growth of the economy, in practice, neither one nor the other is observed.

Corrective growth is limited to resistance 1.2750, near which sales can resume, the week the pound will complete, most likely, near support 1.2670.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on August 17. The Euro-currency is preparing for a new fall

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart continues the growth process towards the corrective level of 127.2% - 1.1431 after fixing over the Fibo level 161.8% - 1.1333. On August 17, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator is brewing. Its formation will allow traders to count on a u-turn in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 161.8%. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 127.2% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the fall of quotations.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from June 21, 2018 and July 9, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The pair's retreat from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Today, there is no visible divergence in any indicator. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can now be carried out with a target of 1.1431 with a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 161.8%, since the pair completed the closing above the correction level of 1.3333 with the formation of a bullish divergence. You can keep buying until the formation of a bearish divergence.

New sales of the EUR / USD pair can be opened with targets of 1,1333 and 1,1227 if the pair retires from the Fibo level of 127.2%, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1431 or if a bearish divergence is formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 17, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues moving in a bearish trend from the resistance level of 1.1482 to 1.1425. Currently, the price is in a bearish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.1300 and 1.1283. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1425 levels, which coincides with the weekly pivot. Moreover, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1425. So it will be good to sell at 1.1425 with the first target of 1.1300. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1283. The strong weekly support is seen at 1.1283. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.1482, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Control zones of GBP / USD as of August 17, 2018

In the past Wednesday, the pair tested the monthly short-term fault of August and the weekly short-term fault of 1.2690-1.2666, which was the main target of the bearish momentum. The emergence of demand and holding prices above the monthly short-term is the basis for building a trading plan.

Yesterday, the formation of a local accumulation zone continued. Closure of the trades occurred below the NCP 1/4 1.2727-1.2721, which does not allow buying today, however, closing today's trading above this zone will allow us to look for favorable prices on the purchase already on Monday. The probability of growth increases due to the fact that the day before yesterday the pair tested a monthly short-term fault, which indicates the passage of the monthly average. Keeping the price higher than the monthly shortage before the end of the current month is the basis for finding favorable prices for buying corrective upward movement in the field.

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Today's movement can continue the flock structure. To do this, it will be required to keep the price below the NCP 1/4 by the time of the close of trading. In this case, the retest of the monthly short-term fault and the update of the August low will be more likely next week.

To continue the downward movement, it is required that the pair trade below the NCP 1/2 1.2793-1.2781, and its test led to an increase in supply and absorption of the last growth. This will make it possible to search for sales, the purpose of which will be a return to the monthly short-term fault. The ratio of risk to the profit of a short position will be close to 1/3, which makes it possible to sell a limit order out of the zone. The stop must be at least 30 points.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones of EUR / USD as of August 17, 2018

This week, the pair tested the monthly short-term fault of August, which allowed to observe the growth in demand. The probability of forming a deep correctional or reversal model has increased to 70%.

Yesterday, the pair formed a local accumulation zone between the two control zones. Support is the NCP 1/4 1.1351-1.1347. Fixing the price above the specified zone allows you to hold the purchase, the first goal of which is the NCP 1/2 1.1402-1.1393. To continue the growth will require the closure of today's US session above the level of 1.1402. If this happens, then purchases can be held already up to a week-long short-term target of 1.1503-1.1484, and also look for new favorable prices for the opening of a long position in the medium term.

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The continuation of the flat will be actual if the closure of the American session occurs below the NCP 1/2. In this case, the probability of renewing the August low will remain, where it will be possible to again consider purchases, the purpose of which will be to return within the limits of the monthly short-term.

An alternative model for the continuation of the fall will become relevant if today the pair can not gain a foothold above NCP 1/2, and a sharp increase in supply will lead to the absorption of yesterday's growth. Closure of the American session should occur below yesterday's opening of trading. This model will indicate the continuation of the formation of the bearish model, and the first goal will be the minimum of August.

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The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 17, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair is still trading above the pivot point of the price 0.9857. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci and 61.8%). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set it at the level of 1.0055.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EUR/USD for August 17, 2018

EUR/USD plan remains unchanged to our last analysis. The price remains above short-term support of 1.1350 and we expect prices to move towards the previous support level and now resistance at 1.15 and close to the Ichimoku cloud resistance.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - downward sloping trend line resistance

Green lines - expectation

EUR/USD is holding above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) while the tenkan-sen is breaking above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is a weak bullish sign, that justifies a bounce towards 1.1450-1.15. The trend remains bearish in the medium-term and will remain bearish as long as the price is below 1.1570-1.16.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for August 17, 2018

The Gold price gave us a reversal formation in the daily chart. The Gold price could have made a short-term bottom and we should expect the Gold price to bounce at least towards $1,190-$1,210 area. Gold bulls should feel more comfortable on a break above $1,183.

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Black lines - downward sloping wedge pattern

The Gold price remains in a bearish trend below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the wedge pattern. The Gold price made a reversal pattern yesterday and with short-term resistance at $1,183, a break above it will open the way for a bounce towards $1,193 first or towards $1,205. The upper wedge boundary and the Ichimoku cloud is an important trend resistance. Support is at $1,160.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 17, 2018

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Not really anything new to say here. We need a break above resistance at 1.7355 to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii to above 1.7484 is developing. The next important upside targets to look for is seen at 1.7924 and 1.8369.

Support is seen at 1.7247 and 1.7220.

R3: 1.7484

R2: 1.7417

R1: 1.7365

Pivot: 1.7299

S1: 1.7270

S2: 1.7243

S3: 1.7220

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 17, 2018

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We continue to look for wave c/ of iv/ moving closer to resistance near 127.94 before the final dip to just below 124.89 to complete the complex correction in wave ii, for a new impulsive rally to above 131.99.

That said, we also need to stress the possibility of wave v/ and ii having completed with the test of 124.89 and wave iii already developing. A break above resistance at 128.45 will confirm this count and instantly make this count the top count if seen.

R3: 127.52

R2: 127.06

R1: 126.61

Pivot: 1.2639

S1: 125.76

S2: 125.26

S3: 124.89

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 126.25 with our stop placed at 124.50. We will take half profit at 127.40 and wait for a new EUR-buying opportunity at 125.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 17/08/2018

Today's session should be rather calm. During the night the President of the Reserve Bank of Australia made a speech, but it did not cause major market movements. PBOC strengthened the yuan a bit after depreciation lasting for several days.

On Friday, the 17th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but in the morning we will get inflation data from the Eurozone, but there should be no surprise. In the afternoon, a similar publication will take place in Canada. Later during the US session, the US will post UoM Consumer Sentiment and UoM Inflation Expectations data.

AUD/USD analysis for 17/08/2018:

During the night, the President of the Reserve Bank of Australia was questioned in the parliament. Phillip Lowe assured that the next change in interest rates would probably go up, not down. As for now, one should observe a gradual progression of inflation and lower unemployment over the next few years.

Lowe thinks that the global risk has increased, he is afraid of escalating the trade war, but he is glad that Australia is on the way to full employment, but the citizens should wait a bit longer. The Management Board of the Bank does not intend to rush to a rate hike. The president is worried about the situation in developing countries, especially in Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey.

The real estate market in Sydney and Melbourne has slowed down, and finally, prices are falling. Generally, in the first half of the year, the economy of Australia accelerated significantly, even the drought that took place in the north of the country. A gradual wage increase should take place in the near future.

The global investors have heard all of this before, so the RBA has no intention of changing the view of monetary policy in any way since its positive action can be seen. The reaction of the market was negligible, AUDUSD during the speech only moved a few pips.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the speech is made. The market is still fighting with the technical resistance at the level of 0.7279, where a few of Pin Bar candles were made already. Despite the recent bounce, the bull camp is clearly weakening and the momentum is now neutral again. The intraday support is seen at the level of 0.7246.

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Bitcoin analysis for 17/08/2018

The European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs is working on new regulations for crowdfunding, which could include part of the initial monetary offers (ICO), says the initial report.

Ashley Fox, British Member of the European Parliament, proposes to include several ICOs in the new draft regulatory framework for crowdfunding, which is being developed from March. The report says that although the draft crowdfunding legislation may not provide a comprehensive solution to the problem of ICO space regulation, it is a very necessary step towards introducing appropriate regulatory measures to protect investors.

Emphasizing that the ICO represent "an excellent stream of funding for technology start-ups", the report proposes that the new framework offers an opportunity for ICO that want to prove their compliance with the requirements of this regulation.

"To enable a competitive EU legal framework, crowdfunding service providers should have the right to raise capital through their platforms using certain cryptocurrencies [...]. ICOs offer new and innovative ways of financing, but they can also generate significant market risks, frauds and cyber threats for investors. Accordingly, [ICO] should comply with certain additional requirements in accordance with this Regulation"- we read in the report.

Fox proposes that the new requirements should not cover all types of ICO. Omissions include ICOs, which are considered "private practices" that use a counterparty or which seek to collect more than 8 million euros - a threshold "to which the EU Member States may exempt securities from the obligation to publish a prospectus pursuant to Art. 3 of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 of the European Parliament and of the Council".

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of the horizontal zone between the levels of $5,846 - $6,597, but the downside momentum is decreasing. In a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $6,782. The nearest intraday support is seen at the level of $6,200.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for August 17, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite volatile and corrective recently which is heading towards the resistance area of 0.9980 with certain bullish pressure. CHF has been struggling recently with the economic reports, whereas USD has been performing better than expected which leads the bullish pressure to continue with certain squeeze on the upside.

Recently, CHF PPI report has been published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to increase to 0.3%. The worse economic results did empower USD to gain good momentum over CHF, whereas ahead of the upcoming CHF Trade Balance report, certain volatility may remain in the market.

On the USD side, Retail Sales report has recently been published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to decrease to 0.1% and Core Retail Sales also has increased to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%. The positive economic results did provide the needed boost for the currency, whereas CHF was struggling to impress the market sentiment. Today, USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 98.1 from the previous figure of 97.9 and CB Leading Index is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%.

As of the current scenario, ahead of the CHF Trade Balance next week, USD is expected to remain consistent with the gains having better economic results backing it. As USD manages to publish better reports, further gain on the bullish side is expected in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 0.9980 area from where a daily close above it is expected to inject further bullish momentum in the pair which is more likely as of the current price formation. As the price closes above 0.9980 with a daily close, further bullish momentum with target towards the 1.0050 area is expected. On the other hand, if the price fails to break above 0.9980, certain bearish pressure is expected which will continue the bullish squeeze further in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9980, 1.0050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Euro tries to start an upward correction

Despite the good data on the US economy, the European currency managed to restore its position against the US dollar, as large players managed to take advantage of the moment and record profits.

According to the report, labor productivity in the US grew in the second quarter of this year.

According to the US Department of Labor, labor productivity outside agriculture in the second quarter of 2018 increased by 2.9% per annum compared with the previous quarter. Compared to the same period in 2017, productivity in the second quarter increased only by 1.3%. Specific labor costs decreased by 0.9%.

Economists predicted a 2.4% annual growth in productivity compared to the previous quarter and an increase in labor costs by 0.1%.

Weak growth in industrial production may negatively affect the prospects for the recovery of the American economy. However, this trend can be traced in other countries, especially in the EU, which indicates the negative effect of trade wars.

According to the data, industrial production in the US in July this year compared with June increased by only 0.1%. The main reason for such a weak growth was the commodity sector. Economists had expected growth of 0.3%.

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Strong demand in July this year forced the US company to increase inventories. According to the report of the Ministry of Trade, inventories increased by 0.1% compared with June, which fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

As for the technical picture of the pair, it underwent slight changes after yesterday's failed breakdown of the support level 1.1310. At the moment, buyers are trying to stay above 1.1365, and in case of a positive outcome, the demand for risky assets may remain, which will lead to the continuation of the upward correction and the renewal of the weekly high near 1.1430. In the case of a breakout of 1.1365, it is possible to "catch" the euro only at the week's lows in the area of 1.1310.

Quotes of oil continued to decline after data from the US Department of Energy.

According to the report, commercial oil reserves in the US increased by 6.8 million barrels, to 414.2 million barrels, from August 4 to 10. Analysts predicted a decline in inventories of 2.4 million barrels. Oil reserves in the Cushing terminal increased by 1.6 million barrels to 23.4 million barrels.

As for gasoline stocks, they fell by 740,000 barrels, to 233.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels, to 129 million barrels. The load of oil refining capacities was 98.1%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum analysis for 16/08/2018

Co-founder of Ethereum and the president of ConsenSys Inc., Joseph Lubin, admitted in an interview to Bloomberg that he is not worried about the decline in the cryptocurrency. He does not see in them a threat to the further development of the project.

Lubin does not make up for the last, huge ETH increases of any ideology last year. He considers them to be another bubble. However, he admits that each successive bull market is more spectacular. Lubin thinks that the peaks of past periods of the boom now look like "pimples". Although the price increase alone does not impress him, he admits that a very good part of the whole phenomenon is a large jump in the level of activity of the cryptocurrency community. The group of people supporting ETH can be even twice as big as it was before the bubble today. He also emphasizes that "there is a strong correlation between the rise in prices and the increase of basic infrastructure in the ecosystem and the growth [of] the development of the ecosystem."

Moreover, Lubin emphasizes above all that the price does not have a big impact on the project development itself. He claims that ETH is still on the "good road" and the bubble "is not so unexpected." Of course, it can be assumed that as a co-creator of the second cryptocurrency, which is the capitalization, he says so only to calm the moods on the stock exchanges and stop the falls. By saying that the bubble is not and was not so "unexpected" also great confidence in the future of the project.

Will this be the case and Ethereum will have a bright future? Let's take a look at the ETH/USD technical picture at the daily time frame chart. At present, the currency has already fallen to USD 288. It is the place on the chart when the price was recently (ie below USD 300), beginning of November 2017. On the other hand, ETH declines are part of the general downward trend in the cryptocurrency market, so they might last longer than anticipated.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 16/08/2018

Market equilibrium remains shaken, although the information that the US and China are planning a meeting on the subject of trade negotiations allows for a moment to forget about the negative sentiment due to the Turkish financial crisis. The Chinese delegation headed by Deputy Minister of Trade Wang will meet with an American group led by David Malpass, Undersecretary for International Affairs in the Treasury Department, informs the Chinese side. This is not a meeting of top officials but has raised the hope that talks may be the first step towards cooling emotions around trade wars between the two countries. How long will it be enough to calm the moods in the markets? Traders need to take into account, that in no way does this affect the diplomatic dispute of Turkey from the USA, where none of the parties, primarily Turkish, is letting go, so it will not be difficult to escalate further. For now, however, fast speculative capital is realizing profits after selling, among others EUR, AUD, gold, or oil. Nevertheless, the base scenario is still pessimistic for these assets until the breakthrough.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just below the all-time highs at the level of 286.77 and the technical support at the level of 279.48 is still in play. However, the market conditions are now overbought, so there is a chance of a deeper corrective pull-back. Please notice the unfilled gap between the levels of 275.85 - 276.50, that would be the first target for a downside correction.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The US will plunge the world into a new economic crisis

It seems that investors have begun to realize that there are too many problems that will hinder not only the demand for risky assets, but also in general will affect the growth of the world economy.

The Turkish debt crisis was a consequence of the contradictions primarily between Washington and Ankara. And although Americans say that it is not inspired by them, it is hard to believe. It seems that the United States have decided to punish Turkey for its obstinacy, as well as for its political, economic and military ties with Russia. But in this situation, there was also a strong blow to the European banking sector, which lends to Ankara and local businesses. Assessing this state of affairs, we can assume that if the situation is not stabilized in the near future, there is a risk that the crisis will spread to Europe, and this is no longer a joke. This is already threatening a new wave of global economic crisis. In addition, the situation is further exacerbated by the outbreak of large and small trade wars, in which the United States and China are at the center of attention.

In the wake of these events, defensive assets continue to be in demand among security investors, and the US dollar is growing not only on the wave of expectations that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, but also because its support is happening against the background of the non-abating repatriation of capital to the United States. It is provoked by the current economic policy of the Administration and the Federal Reserve, as well as increased risks in emerging markets and even in developed ones, which is clearly manifested in the fall of stock indices around the world, the decline in demand for industrial metals and other raw materials assets.

Observing what is happening, we note that the current trend may continue, which means that the dollar has every chance to continue to receive support. The basis for this is the overall picture that is emerging in the markets, as well as in geopolitics, where the main troublemaker of calmness has become the United States.

The forecast for Thursday.:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.1365 and may partially recover to 1.1430, if there is a trend towards demand for risky assets. But, despite this, we believe that it should be sold on growth from 1.1440 with a local target of 1.1265. Also relevant to selling is if the price drops below the mark of 1.1365.

The AUD/USD pair is above the mark of 0.7265 on the news about the resumption of negotiations between the US and China on trade tariffs. The pair may continue to rise to 0.7325. We consider it possible to sell it from this level with the goal of 0.7200. Also relevant to selling, if the price falls below the mark of 0.7265.

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Тревожный звонок для покупателей фунта

Risk assets recovered slightly against the US dollar, but in general the market continues to be in a bearish trend.

The situation around Turkey, the Turkish lira and the growth of the debt of Turkish banks makes investors all also refrain from new investments in risky assets.

Today, one can observe the continuation of a small strengthening of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, however this harm indicates its stabilization after falling to a record low. Most likely, investors harbor some optimism from the press conference of the Minister of Finance of Turkey, which is due today, and on which Berat Albayrak will present an approximate plan for overcoming the crisis.

The growth of the Turkish currency was approximately 2.5% in line with the closing level of yesterday, and just a week the lira rose against the dollar by 9.9%. Many associate such growth with the promise of Qatar to invest 15 billion dollars in the Turkish economy.

As I mentioned above, the press conference of the Turkish finance minister can support the lira, but it can lead to a resumption of its decline if Berat Albayrak does not talk about key issues that worry many investors.

A number of experts are waiting for more resolute measures from the authorities of Turkey. It is expected that in the near future the Central Bank of the country will raise rates to curb inflation, and the government will prepare reforms that will be aimed at a serious decline in the share of borrowed funds in the private sector. It is also expected that Turkey can apply for financial assistance to its partners, which will allow executing short-term debt obligations of banks.

The British pound only strengthened slightly against the US dollar, and then declined again after data on retail sales in the UK, which in July this year resumed their growth. This is a very bad "call" for traders who expect a corrective pair growth in the near future.

As noted in the report, the increase in sales was provided by food and beverages during the World Cup. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in the UK, compared with June, increased by 0.7%, and compared to July last year increased by 3.5%. Economists had expected sales growth of 0.2%.

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As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, while the trade is above support 1.2660, demand for the pound will remain, but to increase the upward correction, a return to intermediate resistance 1.2735 is required, the breakthrough of which will open the direct road to the weekly highs of 1.2825 and 1.2890. Breakthrough 1.2660 will pound the pound to lows of 1.2570 and 1.2500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis: GOLD on August 16

Forecast for August 16:

Analytical review on the H1 scale:

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For Gold, the major key levels on the H1 scale are: 1185.72, 1177.82, 1171.85, 1159.49, 1153.35, 1149.30 and 1141.98. Here, we follow the local top-down structure of August 10th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1159.49, in this case the target is 1153.35, in the corridor 1153.35 - 1149.30 consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the 1141.98 level, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1171.85 - 1177.82. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 1185.72, this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is a local downward cycle from August 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1171.85 Take profit: 1177.60

Buy: 1178.00 Take profit: 1185.00

Sell: 1159.00 Take profit: 1153.50

Sell: 1149.00 Take profit: 1142.00

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for August 16, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite indecisive inside the corrective range of $6,000 to $6,500. The price has been a bit bullish recently after a certain bearish rejection off the $6,000 area with a daily close. The market is still residing in the indecisive phase where no definite pressure is being observed in the process. The price is being rejected off the parallel boundaries of $6,000 and $6,500 from where the price is expected to break higher because the false break structure has been formed in the process, following the previous price action. Meanwhile, a daily close above $6,500 is required for an impulsive bullish momentum in this pair which is expected to push higher towards $8,000 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 8000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com