Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 20, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned before, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level), where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last week, the market has already pushed above the weekly supply (1.5530) and 1.5720 (FE 100%). That is why the current weekly candle closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair.

Note that persistence above the weekly supply at 1.5530 hinders the long-term bearish trend for some time.

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Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency had been expressed on the daily chart until the bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a long-term bullish reversal pattern).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) failed to hold. Moreover, it constitutes a prominent demand level for the GBP/USD pair now.

It offered a valid buy entry for retesting that took place last week.

A daily closure above the weekly supply zone 1.5500-1.5530 exposed the next supply level located at 1.5720 (100% Fibonacci Expansion of the recent bullish swing).

Evident bearish pressure was applied around 1.5720 (100% FE and the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel) so bearish pullback is taking place towards 1.5500.

On the other hand, the price zone (1.5450-1.5500) constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for a valid Intraday buy entry as long as no daily closure occurs below 1.5440 (S/L).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 20, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1.500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

Meanwhile, further bearish decline can be hindered for a few weeks.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 and 1.1600 is highly probable especially if Intraday Demand zone (1.1150-1.1100) remains defended by bulls.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 allowed the market to fall dramatically shortly afterwards.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

A bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied strong bullish pressure to the key zone at (1.1150-1.1050). That's why bears failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

Further bullish advancement was enhanced by the multiple daily closures above the levels of 1.1150 and 1.1250 until bearish pressure was applied around 1.1450 (just below the depicted daily supply 1.1500).

Today, bearish pullback is taking place towards 1.1150 -1.1050 where a valid buy entry can be offered.

On the other hand, the current daily candlestick should be monitored by the end of the day, as a daily fixation below 1.1040 hinders further bullish advancement. If so, initial bearish target would be located at 1.0900.

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Gold : analysis for May 20, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards since our last analysis. The price tested the level of $1,203.13 in a high volume. We can observe supply in a high volume with strong price action in the daily time frame. The short-term trend is neutral. The daily resistance at the level of $1,224.00 held successfully. If the price breaks the level of $1,224.00 in a high volume and strong price action takes place, we may see possible testing at the level of $1,250.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful when buying gold at this stage since we saw strong supply on daily timeframe. Our Fibonacci retracement 50% at $1,205.00. If the price breaks the level of $1,205.00, we may see testing the level of $1,200.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,220.00

R2: 1,225.60

R3: 1,232.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,204.65

S2: 1,200.00

S3: 1,192.05

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage since we can got strong supply in the background.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 20, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a five-week high of 120.73 on Tuesday. USD/JPY is supported by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.29 versus 94.12 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected 20.2% increase in US April housing starts (versus forecast +10.2%) and 10.1% increase in US April building permits (versus forecast +1.7%). USD/JPY upward movement is also supported by rising US Treasury yields (10-year rose 6.2 bps to 2.233% Tuesday), demand from Japan importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japan export sales.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are turning upward, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Tuesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.20 and the second target at 121.50. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 120.10. The pivot point is at 120.50.

Resistance levels:
121.20
121.50
122

Support levels:
120.30
120.10
119.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 20, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.29 versus 94.12 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected 20.2% increase in U.S. April housing starts (versus forecast +10.2%) and 10.1% increase in US April building permits (versus forecast +1.7%), negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold levels. The MACD staged bullish crossover against its exponential moving average. Bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Tuesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9410 and the second target at 0.9450. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9260 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9215. The pivot point is at 0.9300.

Resistance levels:
0.9410
0.9450
0.95
Support levels:
0.9260
0.9215
0.9175

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/USD pair dropped lower from swing highs (1.1450/60) to 1.1100/10. Please note that the level of 1.1100 is also the fibonacci 0.382 support of a rally between 1.1050 and 1.1450 as seen here. The pair is expected to form the bottom here. Now, it is hence recommended to initiate long positions with risk at 1.0500. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.090 (interim) followed by 1.1050, 1.0675 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.1350, followed by 1.1450 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at 1.0500, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 20, 2015

EUR/USD: Now, the bearish correction is strong enough to pose a threat to the recent bearish outlook on this market. Any movement below the support line at 1.1100 would underline the ongoing powerlessness of bulls. It is not sensible to go long on this market.

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USD/CHF: The strength in USD, coupled with the weakness in CHF, is responsible for the new uptrend on this currency pair. The price is above the EMA 11 now, which in its turn, has just crossed the EMA 56 to the upside. The Williams' % Range period 20 is also in the overbought territory. There is a strong probability that the price could go further upwards by another 200 pips before the end of this week.

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GBP/USD: The Cable dropped by over 270 pips this week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5450. This is already a morbid threat to the recent bullish trend. A drop below the accumulation territory at 1.5350 would result in a complete invalidation of the bearish trend.

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USD/JPY: As it was expected, the USD/JPY broke above the demand level at 120.50, ending the equilibrium phase that had been lasted for several weeks. This resulted in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern, which would be valid as long as the price is able to stay above the demand level of 120.50. Within the next few days, the supply levels at 121.00 and 121.50 might be attained.

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EUR/JPY: The weakness in EUR has made this cross to retrace seriously, reaching the demand zone at 134.50. A further drop is possible, especially if the EUR continuous weakening

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 20, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. The kiwi sentiment is dented by the 2.2% drop in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and 0.5% drop in average price for whole milk powder to $2,390/mt at latest Global Dairy Trade auction. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and speculation that the RBNZ would cut interest rate in the coming months. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish. Five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7315. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7270. The pivot point stands at 0.7410. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7450 and the second target at 0.75.

Resistance levels:
0.7450
0.75
0.7555

Support levels:
0.7315
0.7270
0.7225

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 20, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. GBP/JPY upside is limited by the weak pound sentiment and Japan's exports. The sterling sentiment is dented by a softer-than-expected monthly rise of 0.2% and yearly fall of 0.1% in the UK April CPI (versus forecast +0.4% on month, +0.0% on year). But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought levels. The MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal was hit on Tuesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 187.95 and the second target at 188.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 185.95 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 185.35. The pivot point is at 186.65.

Resistance levels:
187.95
188.60
189.35

Support levels:
185.95
185.35
184.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 20 - 2015

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Technical summary:

A decline in wave c was as strong as expected. We are looking for a continuation lower to below 1.4913 and ideally lower to 1.4725, which marks the 38.2% corrective target of wave (i). In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 1.5158 to be able to protect the upside for a break below minor support at 1.5083 confirming the next part of the decline towards 1.4725.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our short entry at 1.5265 as the sell-off from 1.5402 simply was too strong. We will concentrate on buying EUR near the target at 1.4725 now . We will place a EUR buy order at 1.4735 with stop at 1.4600.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 20 - 2015

2015-05-20-EURJPY-4H.png

Technical summary:

The correction from 136.96 is unfolding as an impulsive (5 waves) decline. That means the correction must be a simple zigzag correction. In the short term, we are looking for a break below minor support at 134.32 confirming the next decline lower to 133.27 and even lower to the 38.2% corrective target at 132.79. To indicate that this correction is over a break above 135.77 will be needed.

The correction in wave (ii) is over and a new strong rally is expected in wave (iii).

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR upon the break below 135.29 and are short from 135.27. We will move our stop lower to 135.65. Upon a break below support at 134.32, we will move our stop lower to 10 pips above the latest minor top.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The AUD/USD pair dropped to the levels of 0.7900/20 recently and is looking to rally towards at least 0.8050/60 if not higher. The pair has begun a wave 3 corrective decline and the first leg is seen to be formed at the level of 0.7900. The second wave is expected to end around 0.8060 before dropping lower again. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions now, with risk at 0.7850. Immediate support is seen at 0.7900 (interim) followed by 0.7800, 0.7675, and lower, while resistance is seen at 0.8060 followed by 0.8160 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at 0.7850, a target at 0.8060.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 20, 2015

General overview for 20/05/2015 09:10 CET

Three waves of the impulsive wave progression to the upside have been completed and now the market is in the corrective cycle wave 4 blue that might get complex and time-consuming. The first support for the price is the old supply zone of 1.2190 - 1.2204 that will act as a support zone now. Any breakout lower will lead to an immediate test of the level of 1.2127. Please note that the bearish divergence is building between the price and the momentum oscillator which is a typical confirmation of a topping pattern.

Support/Resistance:

1.2256 - Intraday Resistance

1.2204 - Intraday Support

1.2124 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders from the beginning of the week should be closed now as the market approaches the important levels and entering the corrective cycle. Nevertheless, buying on the dips from the level of 1.2190 1.2204 is still advised as there is uncompleted upward impulsive structure.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 20, 2015

General overview for 20/05/2015 08:50 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the market has made a wave -iv- blue to the upside and now it is continuing to develop full impulsive structure to the downside where wave -v- is missing. The target for wave five, after breaking the intraday support at the level of 133.92, is at the level of 133.45 and a bounce is expected from this level to develop wave 2 corrective structure. Nevertheless, the bias is still bearish and more downside is expected. The line in the sand for bulls is at the level of 133.10 as any breakout lower means that the short-term top is in place.

Support/Resistance:

133.45 - Technical Support

133.92 - Intraday Support

134.87 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders from the beginning of the week should be still kept open as the market approaches the important levels. The TP for this orders should be placed at the level of 133.45.

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#USDX wave analysis for May 20, 2015

The reversal in the US dollar index trend was anticipated and I warned bears several days ago that the wedge pattern and A-B-C correction would be over soon and a reversal would occur. Two days ago the USD index broke the wedge pattern to the upside confirming the end of wave C and the start of a new impulsive wave.

usdx.jpg

Orange lines = bearish channel

Black lines = projected move that I expect

Blue line = overlapping level of wave A

The US dollar index has most probably completed wave C down and has started a new upward move that will bring the index to new highs. The important level to watch is at the blue horizontal line. The low of wave A should be overlapped for the bearish scenario that we are in an upward wave 4 to be cancelled. Although, the form of the rise from recent lows is impulsive, the bearish scenario will be canceled only when we break above the wave A low.

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The weekly chart already looks impressive and its only Wednesday. The weekly candle has surpassed the previous red candle and is now moving towards the tenkan-sen (red line). I believe that the downward correction is over and that we should buy the USD index when it pulls back with 93.10 as stop.

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Gold technical analysis for May 20, 2015

Gold price has pulled back as expected towards our target area of $1,210-$1,200 yesterday. This bearish reversal from the 50% retracement was a big rejection for bulls. The more price stays below $1,225, the less another move higher towards $1,250 is possible. The longer-term view remains bearish.

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Gold price has reached the cloud support on the short-term chart and my black rectangle target area that I posted yesterday. The short-term support is found at $1,200 and an overlap of that price level will diminish the bullish chances of $1,250 dramatically.

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The weekly chart turned very bearish by yesterday's decline as the price got rejected once again at the Ichimoku cloud and at the kijun-sen (yellow line). Gold price failed to break above the 50% retracement and is now reversing. A weekly close below the tenkan-sen (red line) will be very bearish. My longer-term view remains bearish if we break below $1,130 for a final push towards $1,000.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be testing its resistance around 1.4520 again as depicted here. The pair has made an attempt to break above 1.4600 twice but without success. It has been broadly confined between 1.4350 and 1.4550. It needs a break on either side to make a decision about further major movement. It is recommended to remain short for now with risk around 1.4650. Immediate support is seen at the levels of 1.4350/00 followed by 1.4150 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.4600 followed by 1.4700 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain low, stop at 1.4650, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for May 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver dropped to the sub-level of $17.00 as discussed and expected earlier. The metal has bounced off from fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between $15.60 to $17.70 as depicted here. The metal is expected to produce a counter rally towards at least $17.50/60 if not higher. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions now with risk at $16.80. Immediate support is seen at the level of $16.90 (interim) followed by $16.70, $16.20, $15.60, and lower respectively, while resistance is seen at $17.70/80 (interim) followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at $16.80, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair dropped into the territory aroung134.00/50 as we had expected earlier. The pair could continue falling until 133.00 but short-term rallies are possible. An ideal scenario for the pair would be to drop to the level of 132.80 before producing any meaningful retracement higher. It is recommended to book partial profits on the short positions taken earlier and move risk to break-even levels. Immediate support is seen at 133.00 followed by 131.00, 129.00, 128.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at 136.00 followed by 137.00, 138.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book partial profits on short positions taken earlier, move stop to break even levels, a target 133.00.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for May 20, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold dropped to $1,205.00 yesterday. The metal is seen to be trading at the level of $1,208.00 and should be looking to rally until $1,225.00 iat least. It is recommended to initiate long positions with risk at $1,201.00 to take advantage of the counter-trend rally. Immediate support is seen at $1,205.00 followed by $1,195.00/96.00, $1,180.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,235.00/40 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at $1,201.00, a target $1,225.00

Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for May 20, 2015

The USDX is still riding the current bullish momentum above the support level of 95.00 and we're expecting a test of the resistance level at 95.74. If the index consolidates upwards, it would face strong resistance at the level of 96.97, which gives the USDX enough room to trade in favor of the bullish bias.

1432095868_USDXDaily.png


On the H1 chart, the USDX is forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 95.18. Now, the focus remains on the upside, exactly at the 95.82, where the Index should do a breakout in order to rise until the resistance level at 96.21. Currently, the bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA tells us about the bullish trend, which could last for several days more.

USDXH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.74 / 96.97

Dailychart's support levels: 95.00 / 93.95

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.82 / 96.21

H1 chart's support levels: 95.18 / 94.70



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.85, take profit is at 93.07, and stop loss is at 94.63.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 20, 2015

GBP/USD is extending losses on the daily chart, because we observe a kind of consolidation below the 200 SMA. The pair is pointing to a fall until the support level of 1.5346 in coming days. That pullback, mentioned in the recent articles, has already advised us about the possibility of a bearish continuation for the medium term.

GBPUSDDaily.png


The short-term outlook remains unchanged, because GBP/USD continues to trade lower below the resistance zone of 1.5513. Currently, in the H1 time-frame, it's forming a lower low pattern which could give us more short trades opportunities to execute during the rest of the week. Of course, bear in mind support around the levels of 1.5443 and 1.5355.

GBPUSDH1.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5745

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5346 / 1.5199

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5513 / 1.5597

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5443 / 1.5355



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5443, take profit is at 1.5355, and stop loss is at 1.5533.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 20, 2015

The strong housing data pushed the commodities like gold and crude to lower levels from the recent highs. The metal closed at the lowest level in a week after the strong US dollar. Today, ahead of the FOMC meeting, the yellow metal is trading at $1,208.50 compared to $1,207.40 Tuesday's close. The nearest support is found at $1,205.50 rounded to $1,205.00. Intraday resistance is seen at $1,212.00, $1,217.50, and $1,223.00. The weekly resistance is seen at $1,233.00 100Wema. We advised buying above $1,200.00 again at $1,210.00 and $1,220.00 with a final target at $1,233.00 (ref: May 14th article). The metal made a high at $1,232.00 rejected at 100Wema and fell to 100Dema. Today, we expect wild moves ahead of the FOMC meeting. The level of $1,205.00 acting as trend decider because100Dema and descending trend-line is found there. At yesterday's session, the metal pauses the 5-day winning streak. In case the key support level is taken off $1,200, the price fill reach $1,198.00 and $1,192.00 in a day or two. The metal is trading below 20Wsma $1,213.00. For bulls, safe buying will trigger above $1,212.00 at $1,217.00, $1,219.00, and $1,223.00. Risky traders can buy with sl $1,205.00 cmp $1,208.50.

GOLDH4.png

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Technical analysis of USDX & USD/JPY for May 20, 2015

The USDX has paused the four-day falling streak. The index made a double bottom at 93.13. The level of 93.13 is the 161.8FE entire fall from the peak. At yesterday's session, the index managed to close above 100Dema and 20Dsma. The index rejected at 100Dsma at 95.50. The index rejected at the 100Dsma within the recent pullback. In case the index closes above 95.50, the rally will extend towards 95.80/95.90 and 97.00. The 20Wsma is seen at 95.80. Support is found at 95.00 and 94.60. The panic will be triggered below 94.60 aiming to retest the previous low. In case of a daily close below 93.00, bears will aim at 91.50 and 90.70. The index has been consolidating at the level of 95.47 for 12 hours. Intraday strong momentum is expected above 95.70 towards 95.95 and 96.40. Today's key support for bulls to hold is found at 93.88. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the greenback is trading higher against most majors and USD related pairs. The yen is trading lower against the greenback. We expect the FOMC to eliminate uncertainty. The labor market supported the rate hike and yesterday's housing data raised hope for the rate hike. But we don't expect a hike to take place in June, as it is likely to happen in December 2015.

USDXDaily.png

USD/JPY

At the Asian session, Japan released better-than-expected prelim GDP q/q led by stronger domestic demand. In January- March quarter, the economy expanded 0.6%.The pair extended the winning streak for 4 consecutive days. It gave a strong close for the second day. In case the price closes above 120.50, bulls will aim at 122.0. We expect strong momentum above 121.00 towards 122.00. Earlier, we recommended buyingbetween 119.00 and 118.60 sl 118.50. At yesterday's session, we advised bulls to aim at 120.90 in a day or two until the pair closes above 119.20. Today, the pair is likely to touch the level of 121.00. Buying on dips is seen to be preferable. Fresh intraday buying is advised above 121.00. Support is found at 120.50 and 119.80.

USDJPYDaily.png

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 20, 2015

We advised buying earlier. The pair moved 330 pips from lows. Bulls have been extending the winning streak for the fourth consecutive day. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to close above 100Dema. The trend-change level lies at 1.2350. In case of a daily close above 1.2350, bulls will aim at new highs. Last Friday, we covered a complete technical picture of this pair. The USD related pairs have been correcting for more than 2 months. On the downside, support is found at 1.2175 100Dema and 1.2090 200Dsma. In the daily chart, the pair has been forming the bottom around 1.1940, whereas the strong support is found at 1.1875. The intraday resistance is seen between 1.2250 and 1.2280. The strong resistance is seen at 1.2350. In the daily chart, we can observe positive divergence. The bottoming process is a very painful process after a sharp fall in the price. In case the FOMC's decision remains unchanged, the pair will correct with higher low formation. In the daily hourly chart, the double top was formed at 1.2250. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.2250 with targets at 1.2280, 1.2300, and 1.2350.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 20, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on the German PPI m/m are due.The US will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes and Crude Oil Inventories. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1197.

Strong Resistance:1.1191.

Original Resistance: 1.1180.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1169.

Target Inner Area: 1.1143.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1117.

Original Support: 1.1106.

Strong Support: 1.1095.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1089.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 20, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Prelim GDP Price Index y/y and Prelim GDP q/q. The US is expected to publish the FOMC Meeting Minutes and data on Crude Oil Inventories. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 121.51.

Resistance. 2: 121.28.

Resistance. 1: 121.04.

Support. 1: 120.74.

Support. 2: 120.51.

Support. 3: 120.27.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 20, 2015

The cable has been continuing the downward ticks for the 3rd consecutive day. At yesterday's session, the CPI data disappointed bulls and encouraged greenback bulls. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in the year to April 2015, compared to no change (0.0%) in the year to March 2015. This is the first time the CPI has fallen over the year since official records began in 1996 and the first time since 1960 based on comparable historic estimates. Today, traders eye on the MPC.

Technical view: The cable rejected at 100Wema and fell by 370 pips. We have warned that a sharp reversal was expected between 1.5800 and 1.5835. The cable made high at 1.5815 changed the direction close below 200Dsma&ema. The weekly support is found at 1.5150 20Wsma. The nearest support is found at 1.5440 and 1.5400. The intraday resistance is seen at 1.5535 and 1.5560. The trade favors selling on rises. Today, small trading below 1.5440 is available for bears with targets at 1.5400, 1.5393, and 1.5385. We expect the cable to touch 1.5280 in a day or two. On a positional basis, the cable favors buying on dips with sl 1.5150. Small trading is available for intraday bulls above 1.5535 likely 1.5550, 1.5580, and 1.5600.

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 20, 2015

TZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased by 11.4 points in May 2015 compared to the previous month. Now, the index stands at 41.9 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment for the eurozone decreased by 3.6 points to 61.2 points. Gaining 11.8 points in May 2015, the current situation index reached the level of -16.5 points in the euro area. The European annual inflation was 0.0% in April 2015, up from -0.1% in March. In April 2014, the inflation growth rate was 0.7%. The European Union's annual inflation growth rate was also 0.0% on April 20.

The US delivered strong data supported the greenback for the second consecutive day as well. Today, the German PPI is due. We expect another negative data at today's session.

Technical view: the near-term top is likely to be at 1.1480 or 1.1535. The pair made a high at 1.1467 fell by 350 pips. At today's Asian session, the euro is trading lower against USD. The pair closed below 10Dsma and 20Dsma yesterday. These factors pumped enough strength to the bears who aim at 1.1050 and 1.0920 5Dsma. The strong support is seen at 1.1120 on a weekly closing basis. Resistance is seen at 1.1175 and 1.1295. The intraday support is found at 1.1090 and 1.1050. The trade favors selling on rises. Today's safe selling will be triggered below 1.1098. A daily close below 1.1050 is likely to provide bears with the complete control.

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To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com


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AUDNZD long term downtrend could continue

Looking at the long-term picture based on the daily time frame, AUD/NZD got quite volatile over the last year. While it has been consistently rising since the beginning of 2014, after reaching the top at 1.1298 it felt sharply. The pair lost over 1200 points in 5 months.

The uptrend breakout allowed applying Fibonacci in order to find support/resistance and potential targets. The most significant fact is a break below the downside target, S3 (1.0344), which assumes a continuation of a long-term decline. In addition, AUD/NZD is currently rejecting the 50% Fibs, the point of the trend-line breakout, and it looks like a strong resistance has been established around the R1 (1.0820) area.

Consider selling AUD/NZD around the current levels. A target is seen at S2 (1.0570), the most appropriate area because it was acting as support as well as resistance previously. A break above 1.0890, which was a high back on May 13, could send the price higher to test the uptrend as resistance this time.

Support: 1.0707, 1.0569, 1.0344

Resistance: 1.0820, 1.0933, 1.1289

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AUDUSD correction down.

After hitting the low of 0.7531 on the 02.04, AUD/USD formed a double bottom that could be a reversal signal pushing the rate higher in the long term. Although in a small time frame, after breaking below the uptrend, it appears that the pair could make a correction lower.

The Fibonacci applied to the trend-line breakout point shows the current support and resistance levels as well as potential downside target. Currently, AUD/USD is rejecting the S1 support and there is a possibility that the pair will return back to one of the resistance levels, either R1 or R2 before/if moving lower.

Consider selling AUD/USD either on a pullback around R1 (0.7953) resistance or on the breakout of the current low at the S1 (0.7903) support targeting 0% Fibonacci – S3 (0.7745) support area. A breakout above R2 (0.8002) should bring the pair back to the most recent high, which seems to have low probability at this point.

Support: 0.7903, 0.7843, 0.7745

Resistance: 0.7953, 0.8002, 0.8161

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